Stadium viability

[Coco]

Haven't seen this mentioned by any one else at all.

 

But in that long version of the Radio Scotland interview (20 minute one) I was sure that I heard the translator say when asked about the stand redevelopment - comments about how in China stadia can go up like mushrooms ... but also that the Tynecastle Stadium redevelopment may not be viable.

 

Anyone confirm or deny this - it was late when I was listening to it!

[Meeko]

It sounded like that to me, although i aint so sure so cant confirm it.

[Billy the Jambo]

Can,t say i am surprised really . I have had my doubts about the new stadium from the beginning

[Hearts of Vladland]

Haven't seen this mentioned by any one else at all.

 

But in that long version of the Radio Scotland interview (20 minute one) I was sure that I heard the translator say when asked about the stand redevelopment - comments about how in China stadia can go up like mushrooms ... but also that the Tynecastle Stadium redevelopment may not be viable.

 

Anyone confirm or deny this - it was late when I was listening to it!

 

He was taking about how long it to for the planing permission and how long it take. And add that in China Stadium go up like Mushrooms.

[Jam Tarts 1874]

Haven't seen this mentioned by any one else at all.

 

But in that long version of the Radio Scotland interview (20 minute one) I was sure that I heard the translator say when asked about the stand redevelopment - comments about how in China stadia can go up like mushrooms ... but also that the Tynecastle Stadium redevelopment may not be viable.

 

Anyone confirm or deny this - it was late when I was listening to it!

 

One of the stated reasons for the debit to equity scheme is to give Hearts greater options with regard to the finance of the re-development. I see no point in Hearts saying this if there was any question mark over the viability of the plan.

 

As Hearts of Vladland says, Romanov's comments related to the difficulties in getting planning permission.

[Coco]

One of the stated reasons for the debit to equity scheme is to give Hearts greater options with regard to the finance of the re-development. I see no point in Hearts saying this if there was any question mark over the viability of the plan.

 

As Hearts of Vladland says, Romanov's comments related to the difficulties in getting planning permission.

 

Thank you for your opinion.

 

I thought it sounded as if it was a separate comment. But given that it was an interpreted statement I do not think it is clear.

 

My opinion is that the stadium and hotel/office development is a long way from being viable.

[Hearts of Vladland]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/counties/scotland/7496277.stm

 

12.34

[Jam Tarts 1874]

Thank you for your opinion.

 

I thought it sounded as if it was a separate comment. But given that it was an interpreted statement I do not think it is clear.

 

My opinion is that the stadium and hotel/office development is a long way from being viable.

 

Pardon me if I don't bow to your "superior business acumen"

 

I have worked in investment for over 20 years, much of that has been in Commercial Property fund management thank you!

[Coco]

Pardon me if I don't bow to your "superior business acumen"

 

I have worked in investment for over 20 years, much of that has been in Commercial Property fund management thank you!

 

Didn't say anything about your investment acumen.

 

My point was in response to your comment in bold "Romanov's comments related to the difficulties in getting planning permission" - which was your opinion I think.

[colinmaroon]

Of course there's a question over the development!

 

In this financial climate, and with banks just about throttling credit, it would be amazing if many companies are not looking carefully at the plans to invest across the board.

 

The one hope is that we're our own bankers, but there will obviously not be as much money going around for the forseeable future.

 

Having said that, if the full development gets the go ahead and it can be financed in this 'cold' climate, whe things warm up again, the project would be a source of growth in the company's assets.

 

 

 

 

 

................

[Winston Ingram]

Pardon me if I don't bow to your "superior business acumen"

 

I have worked in investment for over 20 years, much of that has been in Commercial Property fund management thank you!

 

Touchy!!!

 

Calm down, darling....

[Sheepie]

Consider me an impartial listener of the recording..........

 

VR said (through translator) that in Scotland, because of bureaucracy and hurldes to over come which take time effort and investment, it was difficult to make such a project viable. Basically to repay investment.

 

Circa about 15.00 onwards

 

Make of that what you will.

[PTBCAL]

Thank you for your opinion.

 

I thought it sounded as if it was a separate comment. But given that it was an interpreted statement I do not think it is clear.

 

My opinion is that the stadium and hotel/office development is a long way from being viable.

 

Not sure if that's what he meant - possibibly lost in translation.

 

Hearts are quite far done the line with getting approval from the council (1 or 2 smaller issues to deal with).

 

However it would not shock me if they turned round and said it was not viable to build it right now/ever. The old stand will have to come down within 12/18 months though according to H & S regulations or given a serious facelift.

[PTBCAL]

Consider me an impartial listener of the recording..........

 

VR said (through translator) that in Scotland, because of bureaucracy and hurldes to over come which take time effort and investment, it was difficult to make such a project viable. Basically to repay investment.

 

Circa about 15.00 onwards

 

Make of that what you will.

 

Fedatovas who translated - assured the fans groups reps on Sunday that thwe club were pushing on with the redevelopment. The offical site makes reference to this on Monday - however if the plug is pulled it will be pulled by VR and no-one else.

[Coco]

Not sure if that's what he meant - possibibly lost in translation.

 

Hearts are quite far done the line with getting approval from the council (1 or 2 smaller issues to deal with).

 

However it would not shock me if they turned round and said it was not viable to build it right now/ever. The old stand will have to come down within 12/18 months though according to H & S regulations or given a serious facelift.

 

Agree, don't think it was clear in the translation. The last time one of the Romanovs spoke on this was Rodney at the AGM who was talking about a 'smaller stand'.

 

Though the idea that the development will be pulled does not sit with the apparent professionalism of the planning application.

 

But I have never seen the financial attractiveness of the scheme - and it has got a lot harder to make it work in the current climate.

[PTBCAL]

Agree, don't think it was clear in the translation. The last time one of the Romanovs spoke on this was Rodney at the AGM who was talking about a 'smaller stand'.

 

Though the idea that the development will be pulled does not sit with the apparent professionalism of the planning application.

 

But I have never seen the financial attractiveness of the scheme - and it has got a lot harder to make it work in the current climate.

 

A tarted up existing stand with the capacity increased to 20,000 would do me. I have heard Hearts are scaling the application back a wee bit but still pushing it through tough.

[lambojambo]

Not from Greggs. From a contact of mine who holds a high position in HBOS(yes I am aware HBOS is not directly involved however he is in the 'know')

 

The development will get planning permission however the commencement date will be delayed by at least 2 years until the current credit crunch/impending recession works through the financial system.

[Coco]

A tarted up existing stand with the capacity increased to 20,000 would do me. I have heard Hearts are scaling the application back a wee bit but still pushing it through tough.

 

I would be in favour of that too.

[Coco]

Not from Greggs. From a contact of mine who holds a high position in HBOS(yes I am aware HBOS is not directly involved however he is in the 'know')

 

The development will get planning permission however the commencement date will be delayed by at least 2 years until the current credit crunch/impending recession works through the financial system.

 

And that would make sense.

[bigwull22]

A tarted up existing stand with the capacity increased to 20,000 would do me. I have heard Hearts are scaling the application back a wee bit but still pushing it through tough.

 

I don't believe it can be done, it needs demolishing, should have built a brand new stadium elsewhere and sold tynie

[PTBCAL]

I don't believe it can be done, it needs demolishing, should have built a brand new stadium elsewhere and sold tynie

 

Your probably right.

 

At the last H&S ext it was tight. Think it was for 3 years and it runs out next May.

[PTBCAL]

Not from Greggs. From a contact of mine who holds a high position in HBOS(yes I am aware HBOS is not directly involved however he is in the 'know')

 

The development will get planning permission however the commencement date will be delayed by at least 2 years until the current credit crunch/impending recession works through the financial system.

 

Seems entirely feasibile.

[flecktimus]

A tarted up existing stand with the capacity increased to 20,000 would do me. I have heard Hearts are scaling the application back a wee bit but still pushing it through tough.

 

I imagine it would make sense to push the App through as in theory it would add more value to the land.

[bighusref]

Said before that I believe that the only way for VR to get his money back is to build the stand.

 

For that reason only, I think it will happen.

[flecktimus]

Said before that I believe that the only way for VR to get his money back is to build the stand.

 

For that reason only, I think it will happen.

 

I agree, i actually think the whole plan could makes sense, except if we dont get the manager thing sorted,then forget it.

[Coco]

Said before that I believe that the only way for VR to get his money back is to build the stand.

 

For that reason only, I think it will happen.

 

Who knows what will happen to property developments.

 

My guess is that more money would be lost by UBIG if they actually decide to go ahead with the development. But I just hope that they don't cancel it until the stand is done ...

[coppercrutch]

I imagine it would make sense to push the App through as in theory it would add more value to the land.

 

I think the word theory is important. This application would be for a main stand development with an adjoining hotel etc..

 

Surely this would only increase the land value for someone else wanting to build the same thing ? In other words someone wishing to buy the club. If someone was wishing to buy the club with whatever debt attached I doubt they would be wanting to pay top dollar for the land.

 

I can't see how having this application passed would add value to the land in any way. Maybe someone in the know can answer this ?

[Francis Albert]

One of the stated reasons for the debit to equity scheme is to give Hearts greater options with regard to the finance of the re-development. I see no point in Hearts saying this if there was any question mark over the viability of the plan.

 

 

The need for (or desirability of) greater options for financing seems to me entirely consistent with there being question marks over viability. Viability must be highly dependent on the availability and cost of financing. I read that part of the debt to equity statement as an encouraging sign that despite the change in the financial markets since the planned development was announced Vlad is pressing on with it and trying to resolve the inevitable question marks.

[coppercrutch]

The need for (or desirability of) greater options for financing seems to me entirely consistent with there being question marks over viability. Viability must be highly dependent on the availability and cost of financing. I read that part of the debt to equity statement as an encouraging sign that despite the change in the financial markets since the planned development was announced Vlad is pressing on with it and trying to resolve the inevitable question marks.

 

That is all good but unless Vlad/UBIG are going to pump a huge amount of cash into this development it is very unlikely to go ahead in the next 3-5 years.

 

-Lenders are being very picky who they lend to.

-They are approached by an owner of a football club(Alarm bell - Risky)

-He wants to develop their stadium with mostly outside finance (Alarm bell - Risky)

-They also want to attach a hotel (Alarm bell - Risky)

-They also want to attach some residential development (Alarm bell - Risky)

-They also want to attach commercial retail property (Alarm bell - Risky)

 

= NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

 

I personally hope that Vlad holds back on this for a fair while. I would love to see Tynie as the stadium we all desire. However unless Vlad is willing to pile in part of his fortune this could be a disaster for the club.

[Groot]

That is all good but unless Vlad/UBIG are going to pump a huge amount of cash into this development it is very unlikely to go ahead in the next 3-5 years.

 

-Lenders are being very picky who they lend to.

-They are approached by an owner of a football club(Alarm bell - Risky)

-He wants to develop their stadium with mostly outside finance (Alarm bell - Risky)

-They also want to attach a hotel (Alarm bell - Risky)

-They also want to attach some residential development (Alarm bell - Risky)

-They also want to attach commercial retail property (Alarm bell - Risky)

= NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

 

I personally hope that Vlad holds back on this for a fair while. I would love to see Tynie as the stadium we all desire. However unless Vlad is willing to pile in part of his fortune this could be a disaster for the club.

 

Why alarm bell - risky? Including hotel/residential/retail units onto the stand makes perfect sense.

Killie are in a reasonable financial position, a big part of that is down to the hotel at Rugby park.

Obviously for the build to have these added will cost more but anybody worth their salt will be able to negotiate a decent price for the whole contract to make it more cost effective. That way although the build costs more you give yourself opportunity for financial gain 24/7 and not just a few extra thousand bums on seats every other week

[Coco]

Why alarm bell - risky? Including hotel/residential/retail units onto the stand makes perfect sense.

Killie are in a reasonable financial position, a big part of that is down to the hotel at Rugby park.

Obviously for the build to have these added will cost more but anybody worth their salt will be able to negotiate a decent price for the whole contract to make it more cost effective. That way although the build costs more you give yourself opportunity for financial gain 24/7 and not just a few extra thousand bums on seats every other week

 

Killie were within a whisker of going bust because of their spending on the stand/hotel.

 

The banks have basically shut down lending on the sorts of things Coppercrutch has mentioned. If VR has alternative sources of finance from non-conventional routes (ie Eastern Europe) ... why would it make a difference what level of debt Hearts carry?

[coppercrutch]

Why alarm bell - risky? Including hotel/residential/retail units onto the stand makes perfect sense.

Killie are in a reasonable financial position, a big part of that is down to the hotel at Rugby park.

Obviously for the build to have these added will cost more but anybody worth their salt will be able to negotiate a decent price for the whole contract to make it more cost effective. That way although the build costs more you give yourself opportunity for financial gain 24/7 and not just a few extra thousand bums on seats every other week

 

Not today it doesn't. Find someone who deals in these sort of things. Mention to them 'residential property', 'commercial property' etc... Have a look at their reaction.

 

And just how would we get a decent price for the deal ? The cost of most of hte materials to build the thing have shot up recently. The actual cost of this development today is probably a good deal more than they imagined only back in August.

 

Trust me I think at the right time this development makes perfect sense. However this is probably the worst time in the last 15 years to be planning this sort of thing.

 

Spend a little on getting the old stand safe for another 5 years.

Spend the next five years chipping away at our debt as much as possible.

THEN head down the route of developing the stadium.

[Charlie-Brown]

I think the downturn in the residential property market will help to create a supply of additional funds for more commercial & industrial land & property developments, however of course lending criteria & rates will be higher than they have been previously.

[Coco]

I think the downturn in the residential property market will help to create a supply of additional funds for more commercial & industrial land & property developments, however of course lending criteria & rates will be higher than they have been previously.

 

Then I think you are in dreamland.

 

The situation in commercial lending is every bit as bad and worse than residential.

 

It is not a case of tighter criteria and higher rates - the credit is simply being rationed i.e. not available to risky developments.

[wavydavy]

My take on it was that he was really just pointing out how quickly things happen in China (probably because they are a developing nation and are keen to get things down) as opposed to our beaurocratic system which seems to hinder progress for fear on upsetting one or two people.

 

In other words we take forever to do things, I don't think he was suggesting that it would not happen just that it could take a long time.

 

 

QUOTE=Coco;368998]Haven't seen this mentioned by any one else at all.

 

But in that long version of the Radio Scotland interview (20 minute one) I was sure that I heard the translator say when asked about the stand redevelopment - comments about how in China stadia can go up like mushrooms ... but also that the Tynecastle Stadium redevelopment may not be viable.

 

Anyone confirm or deny this - it was late when I was listening to it!

[Charlie-Brown]

Then I think you are in dreamland.

 

The situation in commercial lending is every bit as bad and worse than residential.

 

It is not a case of tighter criteria and higher rates - the credit is simply being rationed i.e. not available to risky developments.

 

I am certain the commercial & industrial construction sector will fare much better in the coming period than the residential construction sector.

 

Whether that makes Hearts stadium project viable or not is another matter however I do know the mood in the commercial construction sector is a lot better than the residential guys who's job prospects & planned projects have just been decimated but our sector remains steady if not bouyant.

[Coco]

I am certain the commercial & industrial construction sector will fare much better in the coming period than the residential construction sector.

 

Whether that makes Hearts stadium project viable or not is another matter however I do know the mood in the commercial construction sector is a lot better than the residential guys who's job prospects & planned projects have just been decimated but our sector remains steady if not bouyant.

 

Unless your commercial construction has anything to do with the trams I would ready yourself for your sector to turn down.

 

The residential building sector activity turns down first because they are the smallest in size and things get finished quickly. So housebuilding activity has stopped as you say. But some of the commercial things are multi-year so if finance is secured then they take some time to finish - lag in the cycle. But the finance for anything new has disappeared.

 

I hope that I am wrong but I can see vast numbers of job losses and a huge downturn in the commercial side in the next few years.

[flecktimus]

Not today it doesn't. Find someone who deals in these sort of things. Mention to them 'residential property', 'commercial property' etc... Have a look at their reaction.

 

And just how would we get a decent price for the deal ? The cost of most of hte materials to build the thing have shot up recently. The actual cost of this development today is probably a good deal more than they imagined only back in August.

 

Trust me I think at the right time this development makes perfect sense. However this is probably the worst time in the last 15 years to be planning this sort of thing.

 

Spend a little on getting the old stand safe for another 5 years.

Spend the next five years chipping away at our debt as much as possible.

THEN head down the route of developing the stadium.

 

I have difficulty with these 2 words;)

[Charlie-Brown]

Unless your commercial construction has anything to do with the trams I would ready yourself for your sector to turn down.

 

The residential building sector activity turns down first because they are the smallest in size and things get finished quickly. So housebuilding activity has stopped as you say. But some of the commercial things are multi-year so if finance is secured then they take some time to finish - lag in the cycle. But the finance for anything new has disappeared.

 

I hope that I am wrong but I can see vast numbers of job losses and a huge downturn in the commercial side in the next few years.

 

The majority of the project bank are & have been centrally financed in some way shape or form and there has been very little in the way of pure commercial projects since Edinburgh Park / The Gyle grew enormously in the last decade but since the early-mid part of the decade it is mostly PPP/PFI projects, schools, hospital & healthcare, dental surgeries, libraries, visitor & leisure centres, universities & colleges etc.

[Coco]

The majority of the project bank are & have been centrally financed in some way shape or form and there has been very little in the way of pure commercial projects since Edinburgh Park / The Gyle grew enormously in the last decade but since the early-mid part of the decade it is mostly PPP/PFI projects, schools, hospital & healthcare, dental surgeries, libraries, visitor & leisure centres etc.

 

The trouble with this is that the big cuts in public spending are surely going to be coming through in the next 5 years too. While the current largesse lasts then again projects will lag the more responsive stuff like housebuilding. But Government budgets will have to be tightened significantly in the next few years.

[coppercrutch]

The majority of the project bank are & have been centrally financed in some way shape or form and there has been very little in the way of pure commercial projects since Edinburgh Park / The Gyle grew enormously in the last decade but since the early-mid part of the decade it is mostly PPP/PFI projects, schools, hospital & healthcare, dental surgeries, libraries, visitor & leisure centres, universities & colleges etc.

 

Where does a new stand and hotel for a football club fit amongst that...

 

Commercial property actually started it's downturn in the UK prior to the residential property market. It was just not as widely reported as it did not affect as many people (Directly).

 

If I can be arsed later I will dig out a few articles.

[wavydavy]

The trouble with this is that the big cuts in public spending are surely going to be coming through in the next 5 years too. While the current largesse lasts then again projects will lag the more responsive stuff like housebuilding. But Government budgets will have to be tightened significantly in the next few years.

 

There are always two sides to every story and whilst it looks as if there is a global recession some would say that this is often the best time to carry-out deals such as this.

 

The reason being that this is often the best time to negotiate down prices and as Businesses are desperate to secure new contracts a shrewd negotiator could do very well.

 

I read an article once by Warren Buffet who is one of the wealthiest men in the world say that it was in times such as this that he made the biggest profits by buying when times were bad.

 

He had the money to do it and perhaps Vlad does as well.

[Coco]

There are always two sides to every story and whilst it looks as if there is a global recession some would say that this is often the best time to carry-out deals such as this.

 

The reason being that this is often the best time to negotiate down prices and as Businesses are desperate to secure new contracts a shrewd negotiator could do very well.

 

I read an article once by Warren Buffet who is one of the wealthiest men in the world say that it was in times such as this that he made the biggest profits by buying when times were bad.

 

He had the money to do it and perhaps Vlad does as well.

 

Yep, it can make sense to be contrarian.

 

Perhaps on the construction side. Clearly there are plenty of workers going to be available.

 

But not when Hearts are going to be trying to buy steel at the same time as the Chinese and Indians are buying steel. Steel prices are rising at a huge rate.

 

And perhaps not if a lossmaking indebted football club is attached to the commercial property development.

[wavydavy]

Yep, it can make sense to be contrarian.

 

Perhaps on the construction side. Clearly there are plenty of workers going to be available.

 

But not when Hearts are going to be trying to buy steel at the same time as the Chinese and Indians are buying steel. Steel prices are rising at a huge rate.

 

And perhaps not if a lossmaking indebted football club is attached to the commercial property development.

 

Maybe David Murray could help with the Steel, after all they are always "steeling" players from us.

[Charlie-Brown]

anyway development work on the Hearts stadium project is currently still on-going...meanwhile it's build...

 

[Coco]

anyway development work on the Hearts stadium project is currently still on-going...meanwhile it's build...

 

 

First time you've ever posted anything sensible! Loved the Housemartins!

[Simmo]

Not today it doesn't. Find someone who deals in these sort of things. Mention to them 'residential property', 'commercial property' etc... Have a look at their reaction.

 

And just how would we get a decent price for the deal ? The cost of most of hte materials to build the thing have shot up recently. The actual cost of this development today is probably a good deal more than they imagined only back in August.

 

Trust me I think at the right time this development makes perfect sense. However this is probably the worst time in the last 15 years to be planning this sort of thing.

 

Spend a little on getting the old stand safe for another 5 years.

Spend the next five years chipping away at our debt as much as possible.

THEN head down the route of developing the stadium.

 

Why then do you think the Haymarket development, about 4 times as big as the Tynie project going ahead right now ?????

 

They don't appear to have many doubts about viability and this is also financed by Investment bank/banks.

[jkato]

Fedatovas who translated - assured the fans groups reps on Sunday that thwe club were pushing on with the redevelopment. The offical site makes reference to this on Monday - however if the plug is pulled it will be pulled by VR and no-one else.

 

Am interesting choice of words!!

 

It was initially stated the "the club" would not finance the development.

[Simmo]

I am certain the commercial & industrial construction sector will fare much better in the coming period than the residential construction sector.

 

Whether that makes Hearts stadium project viable or not is another matter however I do know the mood in the commercial construction sector is a lot better than the residential guys who's job prospects & planned projects have just been decimated but our sector remains steady if not bouyant.

 

Agreed...see my earlier post regarding Haymarket/Morrison Street !!!!

[Coco]

Why then do you think the Haymarket development, about 4 times as big as the Tynie project going ahead right now ?????

 

They don't appear to have many doubts about viability and this is also financed by Investment bank/banks.

 

Is it going to go ahead?

 

A lot of these sorts of things are going to be cancelled. I think a lot of property developers are going to go bust. It is not out of the question that a number of banks could go bust.

 

What matters is whether the financing is robust and if it continues to be available.

 

The financing/no financing situation is a bit like the bit in a film when the chemicals are about to escape and poison the not so important film star - and the big star and the girl get through the doors just as they slam shut. The big star and the girl get to watch the not so important star claw at the door as he dies miserably [i can't believe I've just written that rubbish but ...]