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Eldar Hadzimehmedovic
20 hours ago, DaveyT said:

I was in a pub in New York and a woman asked me where I was from. I said Scotland. She said: Is that near London ?

 

Tbf, I wonder how many Scots could verbally locate, say, Wisconsin to within the distance between Scotland and London. 

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Justin Z
56 minutes ago, Eldar Hadzimehmedovic said:

Tbf, I wonder how many Scots could verbally locate, say, Wisconsin to within the distance between Scotland and London. 

 

Along these lines, I often find that telling folk Arizona is right next to California is instantly helpful.

 

Edited by Justin Z

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JFK-1

Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.

 

The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and he is up across almost all the battleground states.

 

Trump faces low job approval ratings, bad marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and an ever-decreasing number of opportunities to change the direction of the race.

 

The first debate has come and gone, and the second scheduled clash has been canceled. Only one more debate, set for Oct. 22, remains.

 

No challenger to an incumbent president since Bill Clinton almost 30 years ago has been in such a strong position as Biden with such a short period of time until Election Day.

 

Still, even Democrats are reluctant to talk out loud about a Biden landslide for fear of jinxing a monumental election or encouraging complacency. Many pundits are also hedging their bets, mindful of the 2016 experience.

 

The national polls four years ago were — contrary to public perception — not far off the eventual result. But state-level polls, especially in the Rust Belt and the Midwest, went seriously awry.

 

Democrat Hillary Clinton went into Election Day ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 3.4 points, 1.9 points and 6.5 points respectively in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages. Trump carried all three states.

 

Trump aide Corey Lewandowski — the president’s first campaign manager in the 2016 cycle, now back on board for the 2020 effort — contended that the polls that year and the media’s coverage of them had amounted to “enormous misinformation.”

 

In a conference call with reporters Monday morning, Lewandowski said, “Our internal numbers — and we are very confident of where our numbers are — continue to show a very different story” from the public polls.

 

Still, Biden’s lead in some key battlegrounds is greater than Clinton’s was four years ago. He is about 7 points ahead in the RCP averages in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. He is almost 4 points up in Florida. New polls on Monday from the New York Times-Siena College put Biden ahead by 10 points in Wisconsin and 8 points in Michigan. 

 

Caution is still the watchword for many experts who acknowledge that the president cannot be counted out. But the flip side — a Biden victory by a thumping margin — is also well within the realms of possibility.

 

“Neither of the outcomes that looks a bit of a reach right now is out of the question,” said Steve Kornacki, national political correspondent for NBC News and MSNBC. “We are always fighting the last war where everybody remembers the surprise of 2016.

But if you apply that and think — as I think we should — that Trump could win this thing, you have to entertain the other possibility: that Joe Biden could win an emphatic victory.”

Among Democrats, there is acute fear that Trump could pull a surprise for any number of reasons, ranging from voter suppression or intimidation to less mendacious explanations like an unexpectedly high turnout from his supporters.

 

Biden “is in a very strong position, there is no question about that,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who is also a columnist for The Hill. But Mellman added, referring to Trump’s perceived chances of victory, “I have spent most of the last four years trying to remind people that 25 percent events really happen once every four times, and 15 percent chances really do happen about 15 percent of the time.”

 

Data site FiveThirtyEight gave Trump just a 13 percent chance of prevailing in November as of Monday evening. By contrast, it assessed the chances of Biden winning an Electoral College margin of more than 100 electoral votes at greater than 60 percent.

 

The Trump campaign highlights a number of factors as to why assessments like that are wrong. They express general skepticism of the polls, especially surveys that do not provide the party identification of respondents or crosstabs with specific demographic information.

 

They also suggest that some of the voters who will back the president are not being picked up properly by pollsters, perhaps because they are newly registered or are less inclined to declare their support.

 

Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, has noted how heavily the president’s 2016 victory rested on rolling up huge margins in the least populous counties of key swing states.

 

GOP pollster David Winston said that, even with Election Day so close at hand, it is important to be circumspect given the overall political landscape.

 

“In terms of COVID, the economy with things shut down, and the social unrest, there is a very volatile environment,” Winston noted.

 

Winston also took issue with the description of Biden as the “favorite” to win the election, noting that polls are snapshots of one moment of time, not a predictor of what could happen three weeks later.

 

“Biden at this point has the clear advantage, but that is different from the ‘favorite.’ You have one more debate. There are other things that can occur,” he said.

 

But with just three weeks to go, time is running out for Trump. The president’s main hope, for now, is that the polls are wrong.

 

If, instead, they are accurate — or even underestimating Democratic support, as was the case in 2012 — Trump is on course for a crushing defeat.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/520692-the-memo-biden-landslide-creeps-into-view
 

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Boof
3 hours ago, Justin Z said:

 

Along these lines, I often find that telling folk Arizona is right next to California is instantly helpful.

 

 

Just had a look at a map - love maps, btw.

 

Is there anything particularly interesting about Winslow, Arizona that would have the Eagles standing on a corner?

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Justin Z
1 minute ago, Boof said:

 

Just had a look at a map - love maps, btw.

 

Is there anything particularly interesting about Winslow, Arizona that would have the Eagles standing on a corner?

 

:lol: The fact that the town of Winslow now has "the girl in the flatbed Ford" as a tourist attraction should tell you everything you need to know!

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Justin Z
2 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

Just had a look at a map - love maps, btw.

 

Is there anything particularly interesting about Winslow, Arizona that would have the Eagles standing on a corner?

 

Now near Winslow? Meteor Crater is ****ing amazing:

 

636404742115100135-meteor-crater-aerial.

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Boof
2 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Now near Winslow? Meteor Crater is ****ing amazing:

 

636404742115100135-meteor-crater-aerial.

 

Now, that IS cool. Presume that's tourist-related stuff beside the rim?

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JFK-1
2 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Now near Winslow? Meteor Crater is ****ing amazing:

 

636404742115100135-meteor-crater-aerial.

 

A feature I have always wanted to go see. Took them a long time to figure out exactly how this had happened. The initial conclusion was volcanic activity.

It wasn't until the early 20th century that an impact was suggested by  Daniel M. Barringer and even then it took until the 1950's before it was finally accepted to be an impact crater.

I think there was a reluctance to accept that such things still happened in relatively recent times. All doubt that it still happens was completely removed when we witnessed Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 strike Jupiter in July 1994. A sobering realisation that our time will come too.

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Justin Z
12 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

Now, that IS cool. Presume that's tourist-related stuff beside the rim?

 

That's right. @JFK-1 just shared some excellent info that you can learn more about there.

 

Another fun fact: NASA trained Apollo astronauts here as the terrain down there was the closest convenient analogue to the moon that they had. There are telescopes at various points around the rim of it and if you look through them you can see a little cardboard cutout astronaut down in the centre.

 

Oh, and there's always that other big hole in the ground, about another two hours north:

 

grand canyon sunset.

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Maple Leaf

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

 

Based on The Economist website above, I'm sure that Biden is heading for a comfortable win in the election.  But there are two intangibles that stop me from putting the champagne on ice just yet.

 

One, using a tactic that worked for Trump in 2016, it would not surprise me if Bill Barr announced that the Attorney General of the USA was launching an investigation into criminal activity by Joe Biden and his son.  That would be a shameful ruse, but the Republicans have no shame so it could still happen.  Besides, Barr himself is coming under scrutiny and possibly facing impeachment, so it's in his interest to keep Trump in the White House for as long as possible.

 

Two, regardless of the election results, Trump ain't leaving. A Biden win will just be the signal for a temper tantrum by Trump and his cultists, which will see Trump launching a flurry of lawsuits, to be heard by Trump-friendly courts, that could stall any change in administrations. Similar action could be taken by individual Republican senators who lose their seat, resulting in a switch of power in the Senate to the Democrats.

 

The election will be just the start of a tumultuous time in American politics.  Who knows how it will end ... with the death of American democracy, perhaps?

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Tazio
2 hours ago, Boof said:

 

Just had a look at a map - love maps, btw.

 

Is there anything particularly interesting about Winslow, Arizona that would have the Eagles standing on a corner?

There’s a bronze statue of a guy standing on the corner now. 
Edit. It’s actually a statue of Glenn Frey who wrote it. 
 

 

Edited by Tazio

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RobboM
2 hours ago, Justin Z said:

 

Now near Winslow? Meteor Crater is ****ing amazing:

 

636404742115100135-meteor-crater-aerial.


You know that's fake right?
It's actually on the moon and they sent astronauts there to film it and just pretend ti's in USA 😂

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Boof
4 minutes ago, Tazio said:

There’s a bronze statue of a guy standing on the corner now. 

 

Never realised it was part of old highway 66.

 

Sorry Mods - probably should get back to Trump now.

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redjambo
2 hours ago, Boof said:

 

Just had a look at a map - love maps, btw.

 

Is there anything particularly interesting about Winslow, Arizona that would have the Eagles standing on a corner?

 

My first exposure to Arizona: :D

 

 

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redjambo
2 hours ago, Justin Z said:

 

Now near Winslow? Meteor Crater is ****ing amazing:

 

636404742115100135-meteor-crater-aerial.

 

Those buildings near the crater were bloody lucky. That thing just missed them!

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Boof
10 minutes ago, RobboM said:


You know that's fake right?
It's actually on the moon and they sent astronauts there to film it and just pretend ti's in USA 😂

 

Google 'car' (actually must be a hand-held thing) goes right to the bottom of the crater in Street view :lol: 

Edited by Boof

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Justin Z
11 minutes ago, RobboM said:

You know that's fake right?
It's actually on the moon and they sent astronauts there to film it and just pretend ti's in USA 😂

 

:lol:

 

7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Those buildings near the crater were bloody lucky. That thing just missed them!

 

Hah imagine the bloody unlucky Saguaro cactus and coyotes that were there, poor buggers.

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JFK-1
13 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

Hah imagine the bloody unlucky Saguaro cactus and coyotes that were there, poor buggers.

 

 Impact energy has been estimated at about 10 megatons

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Maple Leaf
1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

Those buildings near the crater were bloody lucky. That thing just missed them!

:arf:

 

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JFK-1

Been a quiet day on the Trump front. Hope he hasn't taken a turn for the worse. I heard there are bookies taking bets that he will go full blown wacko by appearing live on twitter during a total meltdown after losing the election.

That's what it's come to. Betting on his state of derangement.

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JackLadd

Trump needs to suppress enough votes and get his spivs on the Scotus to rule in his favour when he refuses to concede. I think there will be massive riots beyond any blm protest if this plays out

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I P Knightley

 

10 hours ago, Tazio said:

There’s a bronze statue of a guy standing on the corner now. 
Edit. It’s actually a statue of Glenn Frey who wrote it. 
 

 

:biglaugh: That's the answer I was going to give (tongue in cheek, of course!)

 

(And the one about the meteorite just missing the tourist centre)

 

8 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

Been a quiet day on the Trump front. Hope he hasn't taken a turn for the worse. I heard there are bookies taking bets that he will go full blown wacko by appearing live on twitter during a total meltdown after losing the election.

That's what it's come to. Betting on his state of derangement.

Can you define "full blown wacko"? I keep on thinking that Trump's gone full blown wacko but then he comes back with something else. Yesterday telling his rally that he felt 'like Superman' (helping confirm the talk that he wanted to have a superman t-shirt under his shirt when leaving hospital). 

 

It's like watching Sergei Bubka in the late '80s and early '90s, nudging up the record one centimetre at a time when all the time you knew he could just smash it by about 15cm. 

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I P Knightley
10 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

 

Based on The Economist website above, I'm sure that Biden is heading for a comfortable win in the election.  But there are two intangibles that stop me from putting the champagne on ice just yet.

 

 

I don't like the downward trend over the last 5-6 days. Squeaky bum time?

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Cade

Five months after losing the election by by a landslide, former President Donald J Trump is finally removed from the White House

 

silencelambs154.jpg

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JFK-1
2 hours ago, I P Knightley said:

Can you define "full blown wacko"?

 

Naked and wigless.

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I P Knightley
10 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Naked and wigless.

200.gif

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RobboM

Maybe Biden should agree to a drug test prior to the next debate. Expect Trump to be pumped up so much even Lance Armstrong would be embarassed

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Ron Burgundy
9 hours ago, JackLadd said:

Trump needs to suppress enough votes and get his spivs on the Scotus to rule in his favour when he refuses to concede. I think there will be massive riots beyond any blm protest if this plays out

I hope not but I think you're right.

The media have already made looting, murder, assault and rioting out to be freedom of expression.

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Justin Z
2 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

I hope not but I think you're right.

The media have already made looting, murder, assault and rioting out to be freedom of expression.

 

A-World-Of-Pure-Imagination-Gif-In-Willy

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Maple Leaf
4 hours ago, I P Knightley said:

I don't like the downward trend over the last 5-6 days. Squeaky bum time?

 

Nah.  Not even the Democrats can blow it this time.  I think most people have made up their minds, and millions have already voted.

 

It's AFTER the election that things will get crazy.

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redjambo

I've just read an article about multi hour long queues to put in an early vote. WTF? That's third-world behaviour.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54532189

 

Surely one of the key aims of anyone in a democracy, and particularly those organising elections, should be to encourage and facilitate as many people as possible to partake in those elections, not put them off by making it as impractical as possible.

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I P Knightley
2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

I've just read an article about multi hour long queues to put in an early vote. WTF? That's third-world behaviour.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54532189

 

Surely one of the key aims of anyone in a democracy, and particularly those organising elections, should be to encourage and facilitate as many people as possible to partake in those elections, not put them off by making it as impractical as possible.

Yep. I saw a tweet (so it must be true, innit?) saying that the bloke had queued for over 8 hours. Trump will love seeing that, knowing that there will be plenty of folk who give up and go home for dinner. VOTER SUPPRESSION!!! (as he would tweet)

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Ron Burgundy
1 hour ago, Justin Z said:

 

A-World-Of-Pure-Imagination-Gif-In-Willy

 

Liberal Scream GIF - Liberal Scream Leftist - Discover & Share GIFs

 

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Sharpie

So the big expose that Obama and Biden had been involved in prior to the 2016 election, and for which Trump and his cohorts wanted Indictments served on the two has gone in the same direction as Trumps hair, missing believed dead. Barr has not released the highly alleged condemning information,  because there was none. The two Prosecutors charged with the investigation have both resigned, Oh Donald be careful or there will be a song written about Donald Wheres Yer Losers

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Justin Z
16 minutes ago, Sharpie said:

So the big expose that Obama and Biden had been involved in prior to the 2016 election, and for which Trump and his cohorts wanted Indictments served on the two has gone in the same direction as Trumps hair, missing believed dead. Barr has not released the highly alleged condemning information,  because there was none. The two Prosecutors charged with the investigation have both resigned, Oh Donald be careful or there will be a song written about Donald Wheres Yer Losers

 

Correct. So what a coincidence there's a hit piece on Hunter Biden in today's New York Post, which honestly ought to make people in general view him with more sympathy. It's clear his addiction struggles have been really significant. Mine probably would be too, if I'd been in a car crash at the age of 2 in which my mum and sister died, and my brother died young, of brain cancer.

 

As desperate of stuff as stuff gets.

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Justin Z

Today marks nine years.

 

Image

 

Image

 

To quote a very thoughtful friend, “There are, believe it or not, countries in the world that don’t regularly kill children with flying murder bots. We should try being one of those countries for a while.”

 

Edited by Justin Z

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Maple Leaf
4 hours ago, Sharpie said:

So the big expose that Obama and Biden had been involved in prior to the 2016 election, and for which Trump and his cohorts wanted Indictments served on the two has gone in the same direction as Trumps hair, missing believed dead. Barr has not released the highly alleged condemning information,  because there was none. The two Prosecutors charged with the investigation have both resigned, Oh Donald be careful or there will be a song written about Donald Wheres Yer Losers

 

Good one, Bob.  :thumb:

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Justin Z
6 hours ago, redjambo said:

I've just read an article about multi hour long queues to put in an early vote. WTF? That's third-world behaviour.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54532189

 

Surely one of the key aims of anyone in a democracy, and particularly those organising elections, should be to encourage and facilitate as many people as possible to partake in those elections, not put them off by making it as impractical as possible.

 

Just the various Democratic primaries alone this year, if those conditions had existed in any other country, the UN would've swiftly stepped in. It's rotten to the core.

 

Whether this story in Minnesota really happened or not, I dunno, but it's why people are standing in line anyhow.

Image may contain: 2 people, text

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JFK-1
14 hours ago, Cade said:

Five months after losing the election by by a landslide, former President Donald J Trump is finally removed from the White House

 

silencelambs154.jpg

 

Had to use a straitjacket to get a mask on him?

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JFK-1

You know it looks to me like it's going to be a record turnout for the election. Exactly what Trump doesn't want.
 

 

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Ulysses
On 13/10/2020 at 17:14, JFK-1 said:

Biden landslide creeps into view

A landslide victory for Joe Biden is now a realistic possibility.

 

The Democratic presidential nominee has a lead of around 10 percentage points over President Trump in national polling averages, and he is up across almost all the battleground states.

 

Trump faces low job approval ratings, bad marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and an ever-decreasing number of opportunities to change the direction of the race.

 

The first debate has come and gone, and the second scheduled clash has been canceled. Only one more debate, set for Oct. 22, remains.

 

No challenger to an incumbent president since Bill Clinton almost 30 years ago has been in such a strong position as Biden with such a short period of time until Election Day.

 

Still, even Democrats are reluctant to talk out loud about a Biden landslide for fear of jinxing a monumental election or encouraging complacency. Many pundits are also hedging their bets, mindful of the 2016 experience.

 

The national polls four years ago were — contrary to public perception — not far off the eventual result. But state-level polls, especially in the Rust Belt and the Midwest, went seriously awry.

 

Democrat Hillary Clinton went into Election Day ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 3.4 points, 1.9 points and 6.5 points respectively in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages. Trump carried all three states.

 

Trump aide Corey Lewandowski — the president’s first campaign manager in the 2016 cycle, now back on board for the 2020 effort — contended that the polls that year and the media’s coverage of them had amounted to “enormous misinformation.”

 

In a conference call with reporters Monday morning, Lewandowski said, “Our internal numbers — and we are very confident of where our numbers are — continue to show a very different story” from the public polls.

 

Still, Biden’s lead in some key battlegrounds is greater than Clinton’s was four years ago. He is about 7 points ahead in the RCP averages in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. He is almost 4 points up in Florida. New polls on Monday from the New York Times-Siena College put Biden ahead by 10 points in Wisconsin and 8 points in Michigan. 

 

Caution is still the watchword for many experts who acknowledge that the president cannot be counted out. But the flip side — a Biden victory by a thumping margin — is also well within the realms of possibility.

 

“Neither of the outcomes that looks a bit of a reach right now is out of the question,” said Steve Kornacki, national political correspondent for NBC News and MSNBC. “We are always fighting the last war where everybody remembers the surprise of 2016.

But if you apply that and think — as I think we should — that Trump could win this thing, you have to entertain the other possibility: that Joe Biden could win an emphatic victory.”

Among Democrats, there is acute fear that Trump could pull a surprise for any number of reasons, ranging from voter suppression or intimidation to less mendacious explanations like an unexpectedly high turnout from his supporters.

 

Biden “is in a very strong position, there is no question about that,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who is also a columnist for The Hill. But Mellman added, referring to Trump’s perceived chances of victory, “I have spent most of the last four years trying to remind people that 25 percent events really happen once every four times, and 15 percent chances really do happen about 15 percent of the time.”

 

Data site FiveThirtyEight gave Trump just a 13 percent chance of prevailing in November as of Monday evening. By contrast, it assessed the chances of Biden winning an Electoral College margin of more than 100 electoral votes at greater than 60 percent.

 

The Trump campaign highlights a number of factors as to why assessments like that are wrong. They express general skepticism of the polls, especially surveys that do not provide the party identification of respondents or crosstabs with specific demographic information.

 

They also suggest that some of the voters who will back the president are not being picked up properly by pollsters, perhaps because they are newly registered or are less inclined to declare their support.

 

Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, has noted how heavily the president’s 2016 victory rested on rolling up huge margins in the least populous counties of key swing states.

 

GOP pollster David Winston said that, even with Election Day so close at hand, it is important to be circumspect given the overall political landscape.

 

“In terms of COVID, the economy with things shut down, and the social unrest, there is a very volatile environment,” Winston noted.

 

Winston also took issue with the description of Biden as the “favorite” to win the election, noting that polls are snapshots of one moment of time, not a predictor of what could happen three weeks later.

 

“Biden at this point has the clear advantage, but that is different from the ‘favorite.’ You have one more debate. There are other things that can occur,” he said.

 

But with just three weeks to go, time is running out for Trump. The president’s main hope, for now, is that the polls are wrong.

 

If, instead, they are accurate — or even underestimating Democratic support, as was the case in 2012 — Trump is on course for a crushing defeat.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/520692-the-memo-biden-landslide-creeps-into-view
 

 

9 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

Nah.  Not even the Democrats can blow it this time.  I think most people have made up their minds, and millions have already voted.

 

It's AFTER the election that things will get crazy.

 

Some psephological musings of mine that you might like to think about.  If you are a Democrat and of a nervous disposition, you might wish to note this trigger warning.

 

As far as polling accuracy goes, Wisconsin was the biggest outlier in 2016.  No opinion poll ever showed a Trump lead, and the polls were inaccurate to a degree well outside accepted margins of error.  The polls in Michigan were also noticeably inaccurate, though less so than in Wisconsin.  Pennsylvania was "a bit unexpected", but the possibility of a Trump win was picked up in a couple of late polls and the polls were within normal margins of error.

 

Fivethirtyeight currently rates the probability of a Biden win at 87%.  At the same point in the 2016 election fivethirthyeight gave a very similar rating to the Clinton campaign.

 

Right now, Biden is further ahead nationally than Clinton was at the same stage in 2016.  On average he's leading by 9 percentage points compared to 6 or so for Clinton.  But in the main battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) won by Trump in 2016, Biden is slightly behind where Clinton was.  He's leading by an average of 4.9%, compared to her 5.2%.  If Clinton lost those states from that position in the polls, so can Biden. 

 

Biden has a smaller lead today in Michigan than Clinton had at this stage in the 2016 campaign.  He has a slightly smaller lead than Clinton's in Wisconsin.  He has a slightly bigger lead than Clinton's in Pennsylvania.  Put simply, all three are still in play, and Biden needs to win all three.

 

Likewise:

 

Biden's lead in Florida is smaller than Clinton's lead at the same point of the 2016 campaign.  His lead in North Carolina is more or less the same as Clinton's was.  He's marginally ahead in Ohio, whereas Clinton was marginally behind.

 

Biden does have a slightly bigger poll lead in Arizona than Clinton had - but Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in the end.

 

Biden is outperforming Clinton in the polls in solid Democratic states like California and New York.  He has also hauled back Trump's popular vote lead in Ohio, Texas, Georgia and a lot of the South, but not by enough to win.  That's why his national opinion poll performance is ahead of his performance in the swing states.

 

Between this point and election day in 2016, Clinton's lead in the polls shrunk by 5% nationally, and by more than 6.5% in the major battleground states.

 

If that happens between now and election day in 2020, Trump will win. 

 

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JFK-1
1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

Some psephological musings of mine that you might like to think about.  If you are a Democrat and of a nervous disposition, you might wish to note this trigger warning.

 

As far as polling accuracy goes, Wisconsin was the biggest outlier in 2016.  No opinion poll ever showed a Trump lead, and the polls were inaccurate to a degree well outside accepted margins of error.  The polls in Michigan were also noticeably inaccurate, though less so than in Wisconsin.  Pennsylvania was "a bit unexpected", but the possibility of a Trump win was picked up in a couple of late polls and the polls were within normal margins of error.

 

Fivethirtyeight currently rates the probability of a Biden win at 87%.  At the same point in the 2016 election fivethirthyeight gave a very similar rating to the Clinton campaign.

 

Right now, Biden is further ahead nationally than Clinton was at the same stage in 2016.  On average he's leading by 9 percentage points compared to 6 or so for Clinton.  But in the main battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) won by Trump in 2016, Biden is slightly behind where Clinton was.  He's leading by an average of 4.9%, compared to her 5.2%.  If Clinton lost those states from that position in the polls, so can Biden. 

 

Biden has a smaller lead today in Michigan than Clinton had at this stage in the 2016 campaign.  He has a slightly smaller lead than Clinton's in Wisconsin.  He has a slightly bigger lead than Clinton's in Pennsylvania.  Put simply, all three are still in play, and Biden needs to win all three.

 

Likewise:

 

Biden's lead in Florida is smaller than Clinton's lead at the same point of the 2016 campaign.  His lead in North Carolina is more or less the same as Clinton's was.  He's marginally ahead in Ohio, whereas Clinton was marginally behind.

 

Biden does have a slightly bigger poll lead in Arizona than Clinton had - but Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in the end.

 

Biden is outperforming Clinton in the polls in solid Democratic states like California and New York.  He has also hauled back Trump's popular vote lead in Ohio, Texas, Georgia and a lot of the South, but not by enough to win.  That's why his national opinion poll performance is ahead of his performance in the swing states.

 

Between this point and election day in 2016, Clinton's lead in the polls shrunk by 5% nationally, and by more than 6.5% in the major battleground states.

 

If that happens between now and election day in 2020, Trump will win. 

 

 

I think there's one more factor you haven't considered.
 

Quote

2016 election turnout: 55.5%

 

All pundits are predicting a record turnout because Trump has scared people shitless. They're terrified at the prospect of this maniac consolidating power.

And when you consider he won by a very slim margin indeed last time a record turnout is the last thing he wants. It's exactly why he's been trying to suppress the vote for months.

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Justin Z

Attention red state morons: Enjoy your reaping.

 

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JFK-1
7 hours ago, Justin Z said:

Today marks nine years.

 

Image

 

Image

 

To quote a very thoughtful friend, “There are, believe it or not, countries in the world that don’t regularly kill children with flying murder bots. We should try being one of those countries for a while.”

 

 

A talk by AronRa you might find interesting. I began listening to him some years ago speaking on science and secularism.
 

 

Edited by JFK-1

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Ulysses
1 hour ago, JFK-1 said:

 

I think there's one more factor you haven't considered.
 

 

All pundits are predicting a record turnout because Trump has scared people shitless. They're terrified at the prospect of this maniac consolidating power.

And when you consider he won by a very slim margin indeed last time a record turnout is the last thing he wants. It's exactly why he's been trying to suppress the vote for months.

 

There have been 10 Presidential elections since I reached voting age.

 

2016 ranks third highest for percentage turnout, which is also why it ranks highest in history for absolute ballot numbers.

 

Obama's second win - 54.9%

 

Clinton's second win - 49%

 

Both parties have won big on low turnouts, and high turnouts.

 

And I wouldn't be so sure about any hype about record turnout.  There were stories about record levels of early voting in 2016, 2012, and 2008.  They were true, but that didn't fundamentally change the final turnout.  Why?  Because at each election more people are getting their vote out of the way early instead of waiting for the last day.

 

In the 1950s and 1960s, turnout was typically in the low 60s.  But since 1972 it has been between 49 and 56 percent.  The only election that even hinted at 60% was in 2008, when a wee bit under 59% turned out to vote.

 

At this election, 55% would be a good solid turnout, 56% would be very good, and 57% would be remarkable. 

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EH11_2NL

No matter who wins......

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Sharpie

Just watched while eating my self made breakfast the news on two different channels, both seeing the other as fake news, a new term raised by Donald Trump. I was quite looking forward to my morning refuelling but that came to a stop with an almost queasy stomach On CNN they are announcing news that Trump received $10 million from a foreign country for election campaign funds, a breach of the law. Off to Fox to watch the the Supreme Court hearings. That ends along come Ted Cruz and  Lindsey Graham, they are extremely angry that Twitter rejected a story about the New York posts allegations that Hunter Biden with his fathers assistance got millions of dollars from Ukraine and China. These two stories are about men running  for the Presidency of the United States, not about two Mafia bosses fighting over territory, although the similarities are almost extreme.

What happened to the days of two men who had no real animosity against each other but were strongly negative about their opponents policies and leadership qualities. What has happened to leadership, Trump is stomping around a country during the worst Pandemic in a hundred years, he is breaking all the rules about disease prevention, meanwhile Biden is appearing at obscure venues and stuttering and wrong wording through these appearances.  They both appeared in a televised debate that was marred by rudeness, childlike behaviour, and expressions like shuttup, which you wouldn.t allow your kids to say at the dinner table. This is not a thing of competition in its usual form its a shameful shambles involving two men who should be having a problem applying for the most menial forms of employment. Meanwhile China is talking about an upcoming war, Russia is sitting on a branch watching its opportunity in Aberbyjan sp. What a terrible world it is becoming, and one at least me has to say the United States as a whole are not doing the world any favors, protests,rioting looting, civil unrest, private armies, racism, ach thats enough.

Nobody needs to say sounds like Bob may be having a bad day, i'll say it I am and these a -holes don't help one iota,

.

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Justin Z

No big deal, just openly bragging about ordering a hit on an American citizen.

 

 

 

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Barack

 

Screenshot_20201015-203309_Twitter.jpg

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Barack
38 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

No big deal, just openly bragging about ordering a hit on an American citizen.

 

 

 

Now, I may be incorrect here...that's a Capitol offence he's just admitting there..? One that has no statute of limitations...?

 

:greggy:

 

 

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