Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[Jambo-Jimbo]

8 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

That’s what they’re blaming it on anyway. In reality their services simply aren’t attracting enough passengers. They fly small planes too. Simon Calder, who knows the travel industry inside out says their planes are less than half full on average. Their main hub is also East Midlands Airport, which doesn't give them much reach. Ryanair and EasyJet flights are typically 90% full.

 

When you have an airline which regularly can only fill 40% of it's seats, then it's always going to be in financial trouble.

As Simon Calder said there were often only 20 passengers on it's planes (50 seat capacity) whilst Ryanair & Easyjet can fill over 90% of theirs then the likes of FlyBMI was always having a fight for survival.

The uncertainty over brexit may have been the final straw for FlyBMI, however the business was in trouble already, so if it wasn't brexit which pushed it over the edge then it would have been something else that would have, it really was only a matter of time with them, and quite a few others.

 

The simple fact is that there is huge over capacity in the European airline market, too many planes/seats for the number of passengers, you only need to look at the number of alirlines which have folded over the last year or two to see the problem, Monarch, Air Berlin, Primera Air, Cobalt Air and just last week another German airline Germaina Airlines have all went bust.

Then you have the continued uncertainty surrounding Alitalia, Flybe have just been saved & Norwegian have just had to have an injection of cash to keep it afloat, then it's only a matter of time brexit or no brexit before another airline goes to the wall.

 

[Ulysses]

The truth about trade deals.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/16/leavers-discovering-difficult-truth-trade-deals-brexit

 

The UK can't get a trade deal anywhere that would be better than it would get as part of the EU's negotiating bloc, and if there's a no deal Brexit the UK has a long way to go even to roll over its existing trade deals.

[IMac]

4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

The truth about trade deals.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/16/leavers-discovering-difficult-truth-trade-deals-brexit

 

The UK can't get a trade deal anywhere that would be better than it would get as part of the EU's negotiating bloc, and if there's a no deal Brexit the UK has a long way to go even to roll over its existing trade deals.

Project fear!

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, IMac said:

Project fear!

 

 

There are no tariffs or export-import quotas on fear.

[SwindonJambo]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

When you have an airline which regularly can only fill 40% of it's seats, then it's always going to be in financial trouble.

As Simon Calder said there were often only 20 passengers on it's planes (50 seat capacity) whilst Ryanair & Easyjet can fill over 90% of theirs then the likes of FlyBMI was always having a fight for survival.

The uncertainty over brexit may have been the final straw for FlyBMI, however the business was in trouble already, so if it wasn't brexit which pushed it over the edge then it would have been something else that would have, it really was only a matter of time with them, and quite a few others.

 

The simple fact is that there is huge over capacity in the European airline market, too many planes/seats for the number of passengers, you only need to look at the number of alirlines which have folded over the last year or two to see the problem, Monarch, Air Berlin, Primera Air, Cobalt Air and just last week another German airline Germaina Airlines have all went bust.

Then you have the continued uncertainty surrounding Alitalia, Flybe have just been saved & Norwegian have just had to have an injection of cash to keep it afloat, then it's only a matter of time brexit or no brexit before another airline goes to the wall.

 

 

There’s probably going to be drastic surgery in the airline market in the next few years. Like you say, there are far too many low cost airlines chasing too little business and many have gone to the wall. Nothing to do with Brexit whatsoever.

 

Low Cost carriers when they hit the scene were a good thing because it broke up the cartel of the established National carriers such as BA, Lufthansa etc who collaborated and made outrageous profits on short haul routes. They in turn had to change their whole business model to compete, drastically cutting costs. I flew with BA for the 1st time in 16 years recently and they’ve reduced their offering drastically to compete with the upstarts. Their planes are much more spartan inside nowadays.The whole industry has been a race to the bottom.

 

Up until about 20 years ago flying was considered glamorous and now it’s usually a pain in the arse. 

[IMac]

9 hours ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

There’s probably going to be drastic surgery in the airline market in the next few years. Like you say, there are far too many low cost airlines chasing too little business and many have gone to the wall. Nothing to do with Brexit whatsoever.

 

Low Cost carriers when they hit the scene were a good thing because it broke up the cartel of the established National carriers such as BA, Lufthansa etc who collaborated and made outrageous profits on short haul routes. They in turn had to change their whole business model to compete, drastically cutting costs. I flew with BA for the 1st time in 16 years recently and they’ve reduced their offering drastically to compete with the upstarts. Their planes are much more spartan inside nowadays.The whole industry has been a race to the bottom.

 

Up until about 20 years ago flying was considered glamorous and now it’s usually a pain in the arse. 

Project fear is in over drive! Clearly you understand FlyBMI's operations/financials better then the people running FlyBMI. 

[SwindonJambo]

1 hour ago, IMac said:

Project fear is in over drive! Clearly you understand FlyBMI's operations/financials better then the people running FlyBMI. 

 

I didn't once mention BMI in the post you quoted. It was a general take on the airline industry. Simon Calder's been on the radio talking about it. BMI were well known to be in trouble for some time. Small regional carrier squeezed out because it's attracting too few passengers. They were still selling tickets right up until their demise was announced. There were passengers through security at Bristol last night waiting to board when their flight was suddenly cancelled.

[Seymour M Hersh]

14 hours ago, RobboM said:

Brexit claims yet another casualty. FlyBMI goes into administration

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47267901

 

 

Nothing to do with Brexit. 

[Francis Albert]

3 hours ago, Ulysses said:

The truth about trade deals.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/16/leavers-discovering-difficult-truth-trade-deals-brexit

 

The UK can't get a trade deal anywhere that would be better than it would get as part of the EU's negotiating bloc, and if there's a no deal Brexit the UK has a long way to go even to roll over its existing trade deals.

The truth and the Guardian are strangers when it comes to brexit. The paper is a remainer propaganda sheet and I speak as a Guardian reader for nearly fifty years. It's initial news report and subsequent opinion pieces on the trivial but by the Guardian greatly hyped story about P&O reflagging a handful of cross channel ferries repeatedly referred to the long history of the Penisular & Orental Company as a great British business without once mentioning it ceased  to he a British company and indeed ceased to exist 15 years ago when bought by the Dubai Port Authority, who use P&O as one of many brand names. The last article I saw by the ghastly Polly Toynbee was illustrated by a picture of a P&O steamer at the turn of the last century no doubt bound for India. The Guardian is not above invoking Empire nostalgia in the remain clause.

Since we have frequently been told we couldn't start negotiating trade deals until we had left I am pleasantly surprised by progress to date.

And this stuff about the clout of the EU? I have been in South East Asia for a couple of weeks, blessedly isolated from Brexit news, and here (and in China and India) the old and stagnating economies of Europe seem strangely irrelevant. 

And whether the UK is in or out of the EU is far from.the biggest issue facing the EU or the UK in terms of international competiveness this century. For Little Englanders read Little Europeans.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Francis Albert

[RobboM]

1 minute ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Nothing to do with Brexit. 

I guess you might be one of those "experts" Michael Gove warned us against

[Unknown user]

11 hours ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

There’s probably going to be drastic surgery in the airline market in the next few years. Like you say, there are far too many low cost airlines chasing too little business and many have gone to the wall. Nothing to do with Brexit whatsoever.

 

Low Cost carriers when they hit the scene were a good thing because it broke up the cartel of the established National carriers such as BA, Lufthansa etc who collaborated and made outrageous profits on short haul routes. They in turn had to change their whole business model to compete, drastically cutting costs. I flew with BA for the 1st time in 16 years recently and they’ve reduced their offering drastically to compete with the upstarts. Their planes are much more spartan inside nowadays.The whole industry has been a race to the bottom.

 

Up until about 20 years ago flying was considered glamorous and now it’s usually a pain in the arse. 

 

Norwegian are on their way down too, but it'll be due to a shitty business model rather than brexit

[Seymour M Hersh]

17 minutes ago, RobboM said:

I guess you might be one of those "experts" Michael Gove warned us against

 

Nope, just not gullible like you appear to be.

[Francis Albert]

Never really understood why I could fly return to NYC for the same or little more than it costs me for petrol for a return trip London to Edinburgh.

[SwindonJambo]

22 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Norwegian are on their way down too, but it'll be due to a shitty business model rather than brexit

I knew about them and agree that their days are probably numbered. They've tried to grow too quickly and are living hand to mouth, hence their recent emergency cash injection. Norway has never been in the EU so they can't blame Brexit!

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

I didn't once mention BMI in the post you quoted. It was a general take on the airline industry. Simon Calder's been on the radio talking about it. BMI were well known to be in trouble for some time. Small regional carrier squeezed out because it's attracting too few passengers. They were still selling tickets right up until their demise was announced. There were passengers through security at Bristol last night waiting to board when their flight was suddenly cancelled.

 

Apparently FlyBMI have had money problems since 2013, seemingly was mentioned in the Sunday papers.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

 

Norwegian are on their way down too, but it'll be due to a shitty business model rather than brexit

 

1 hour ago, SwindonJambo said:

I knew about them and agree that their days are probably numbered. They've tried to grow too quickly and are living hand to mouth, hence their recent emergency cash injection. Norway has never been in the EU so they can't blame Brexit!

 

If I were a betting man then I'd say Norwegian are likely to be the next low cost airline to fail, they have been struggling for quite some time, and despite receiving a very recent cash injection, they are laying off staff including flight crew.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Jambo-Jimbo

[IMac]

Project fear alert. UK's richest man who just happened to support Brexit is relocating to monaco. Obviously nothing to do with Brexit.

[The Mighty Thor]

9 minutes ago, IMac said:

Project fear alert. UK's richest man who just happened to support Brexit is relocating to monaco. Obviously nothing to do with Brexit.

There quite a lot of money exiting the UK at the moment. 

Stories of companies and individuals bailing out are a daily occurrence. 

Nothing to do with Brexit. 

[IMac]

26 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

There quite a lot of money exiting the UK at the moment. 

Stories of companies and individuals bailing out are a daily occurrence. 

Nothing to do with Brexit. 

Only gullible people worry about Brexit. Obviously the greater threat is a hard left Corbyn government.

[Statts1976uk]

Regardless of Brexit the aviation industry is a nightmare to make money out of and the likelihood is that FlyBMI would have went out of business anyway at some point, capacities of 40% do not pay the bills.

 

Most major American airlines have flirted with Chapter 11 at least once and a major helicopter operator in Aberdeen is sailing very close to the wind. As Michael Porter has written about if you want to make money don’t invest in aviation buy yourself a soft drink bottling plant!

Edited February 17, 2019 by Statts1976uk

[Unknown user]

2 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

 

If I were a betting man then I'd say Norwegian are likely to be the next low cost airline to fail, they have been struggling for quite some time, and despite receiving a very recent cash injection, they are laying off staff including flight crew.

I'd agree. They've also stopped  a whole bunch of staff perks in the last few weeks, a sure fire sign of trouble to come in that industry.

[SwindonJambo]

45 minutes ago, IMac said:

Only gullible people worry about Brexit. Obviously the greater threat is a hard left Corbyn government.

 

That would be the hard left Corbyn who not so secretly supports Brexit. He would destroy this country. There are currently no frontline politicians who I like but Comrade Corbyn would be a disaster. I’m not overly worried about Brexit even though I voted against. I’m sure the sky won’t cave in. We will probably struggle a bit in some areas to start with then find our feet. If we cope okay, I can see others following us out the door. 

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, IMac said:

Project fear alert. UK's richest man who just happened to support Brexit is relocating to monaco. Obviously nothing to do with Brexit.

 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

56 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 He would destroy this country.

May and her coterie of shysters and spivs have got that covered.

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Excerpt from the Flybmi statement.

'Current trading and future prospects have also been seriously affected by the uncertainty created by the Brexit process, which has led to our inability to secure valuable flying contracts in Europe and lack of confidence around bmi’s ability to continue flying between destinations in Europe.'

 

The last part is of interest, where it mentions the lack of confidence around bmi's ability to continue flying between destinations in Europe.

Makes you wonder why Flybmi didn't re-register part of it's fleet in an EU country and thus removing any uncertainty surrounding their ability to fly between EU destinations. 

Easyjet have done this, re-registered part of it's fleet in Austria and a lot of it's flight crew now have Austrian pilot's licences, thus meaning that no matter what permutation happens surrounding brexit, on Saturday 30 March Easyjet flights will still be flying pretty much as normal, surely Flybmi could have done the same.

[SwindonJambo]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

May and her coterie of shysters and spivs have got that covered.

 

 

Rubbish as they certainly are, the economy has at least continued to grow, albeit more slowly despite all the brexit uncertainty. Corbyn? He had a Venezuelan flag in his office. He's an insidious tosser surrounded by some very dangerous people such as John McDonnell. I wouldn't put him in charge of a sweetie shop.

He'd be great for equality all right though. By making everyone poor.

 

We have the crappiest electoral choices in my lifetime.

[The Mighty Thor]

30 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

Rubbish as they certainly are, the economy has at least continued to grow, albeit more slowly despite all the brexit uncertainty. Corbyn? He had a Venezuelan flag in his office. He's an insidious tosser surrounded by some very dangerous people such as John McDonnell. I wouldn't put him in charge of a sweetie shop.

He'd be great for equality all right though. By making everyone poor.

 

We have the crappiest electoral choices in my lifetime.

No arguments from me on the Labour party. They're finished. 

 

 

[SwindonJambo]

42 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

No arguments from me on the Labour party. They're finished. 

 

 

The chances of an SDP 1981 type breakaway party must be increasing every day. Moderates like Yvette Cooper, Chukka Ummuna and Dan Jarvis likely to be involved, leaving Corbyn and the hard left behind.

[The Mighty Thor]

I see Porsche are advising UK customers ordering new cars that they may need to apply a 10% surcharge for cars delivered after 29/3 to cover a no deal Brexit. 

 

Not going to apply to many I accept but VW group are keeping schtum on the impact on their other brands

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

I see Porsche are advising UK customers ordering new cars that they may need to apply a 10% surcharge for cars delivered after 29/3 to cover a no deal Brexit. 

 

Not going to apply to many I accept but VW group are keeping schtum on the impact on their other brands

 

IIRC, the EU imposes a 10% tariff on petrol cars imported into the Union and 20% on diesel cars.  Most countries have the same tariffs, except in cases where they have free trade agreements.

 

The UK might decide not to impose those tariffs, but if they don't impose them on the EU and continue to impose them on others that may spark a trade and tariff war between the UK and those countries.

 

And if that happens, you know exactly who to blame.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, that's right, flybmi and Norwegian Airlines, that's who. 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, SwindonJambo said:

The chances of an SDP 1981 type breakaway party must be increasing every day. Moderates like Yvette Cooper, Chukka Ummuna and Dan Jarvis likely to be involved, leaving Corbyn and the hard left behind.

 

 

....and that will guarantee at least another decade of Tory government.

[Cade]

14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

....and that will guarantee at least another decade of Tory government.

Unless the Tories also shatter into pieces, which may happen with the ERG already having formed a party within the party.

 

UK PLC could be looking at all manner of bonkers coalitions and decades of political turmoil.

[Ulysses]

20 minutes ago, Cade said:

Unless the Tories also shatter into pieces, which may happen with the ERG already having formed a party within the party.

 

UK PLC could be looking at all manner of bonkers coalitions and decades of political turmoil.

 

Once the UK leaves without a deal the ERG will have won and will have no reason to pull the Conservatives apart.  The others will whinge and complain, but when push comes to shove they will put party unity first.

[Mikey1874]

The two big UK parties are pretty resilient.

 

Been full of splits and big disagreements since they started. 

 

People looking for some new middle party are going to be disappointed. And the Liberal Democrats already exist.

[Jambo-Jimbo]

13 hours ago, SwindonJambo said:

The chances of an SDP 1981 type breakaway party must be increasing every day. Moderates like Yvette Cooper, Chukka Ummuna and Dan Jarvis likely to be involved, leaving Corbyn and the hard left behind.

 

Should really be in the Labour thread, however it's being reported that a group of Labour MP's are set to make an announcement today about their future in the Labour Party.

[Cade]

Nice wee report from a cross-party Select Committee released today after a massive 18-month investigation into Facebook and other social media companies and their role in politics:

 

It warns that British electoral law is unfit for purpose and vulnerable to interference by hostile foreign actors, including agents of the Russian government attempting to discredit democracy.

It also calls on the British government to establish an independent investigation into “foreign influence, disinformation, funding, voter manipulation and the sharing of data” in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election.

Edited February 18, 2019 by Cade

[Don Dan]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Should really be in the Labour thread, however it's being reported that a group of Labour MP's are set to make an announcement today about their future in the Labour Party.

 

“UK MPs Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey quit Labour”

 

It will be interesting to see if others join them now. That includes the Tories. We could well be in for years of coalition governments based on single issue groupings. 

One thing Brexit has done is bring to the surface underlying splits that would normally be managed. 

[Cade]

Japan furious at the UK's utter incompetence in the bi-lateral trade talks, almost pulling out altogether.

 

We've been sending delegations over to Japan without specialists who know what they're doing then act all surprised when nothing moves forward.

 

Then Jezza Hunt and Liam Fox went moaning to the papers about Japan being difficult(!)

 

So, this is all going well. Easiest deals in history.

Edited February 18, 2019 by Cade

[Francis Albert]

Just now, Cade said:

Nice wee report from a cross-party Select Committee released today after a massive 18-month investigation into Facebook and other social media companies and their role in politics:

 

It warns that British electoral law is unfit for purpose and vulnerable to interference by hostile foreign actors, including agents of the Russian government attempting to discredit democracy.

It also calls on the British government to establish an independent investigation into “foreign influence, disinformation, funding, voter manipulation and the sharing of data” in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election.

Wow. Have some people really just woken up to the fact there has been widespread "foreign interference" in elections in the UK and other western democracies (and well beyond) by among others the USA (probably the biggest culprit ) and the USSR /Russia for at least the last 70 years.

Don't the members of the Select Committee read any history to inform their opinions?

 

[Martin_T]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Japan furious at the UK's utter incompetence in the bi-lateral trade talks, almost pulling out altogether.

 

We've been sending delegations over to Japan without specialists who know what they're doing then act all surprised when nothing moves forward.

 

Then Jezza Hunt and Liam Fox went moaning to the papers about Japan being difficult(!)

 

So, this is all going well. Easiest deals in history.

 

Quite liked the line from an SNP MP during a debate last week in which she implied that they are so incompetent that they would probably end up paying full price for a sofa from DFS.

[Martin_T]

I followed the ongoing Brexit debate on Twitter a bit more closely last week, as I was on a week's holiday from work. What struck me is that sides, Remain and Leave, think that they are to some degree 'anti-establishment'.

 

Leavers, particularly English it would seem, think that they they are perverting a liberal, globalist agenda, but advocating a clean break from the EU and 'going WTO'. Quite how this anti-establishment mantra squares with the fact that it is driven by possibly the most establishment of establishment figures in the likes of Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Farage and co is something of which I struggle to see the logic of.

 

Remainers, think that they are attempting to subvert a hard right takeover of the UK. To me this seems far more logical, but then I voted remain, and haven't spent the time since, contradicting my vote by arguing in support of the opposite side of the argument.

 

 

 

[Francis Albert]

Just now, Martin_T said:

I followed the ongoing Brexit debate on Twitter a bit more closely last week, as I was on a week's holiday from work. What struck me is that sides, Remain and Leave, think that they are to some degree 'anti-establishment'.

 

Leavers, particularly English it would seem, think that they they are perverting a liberal, globalist agenda, but advocating a clean break from the EU and 'going WTO'. Quite how this anti-establishment mantra squares with the fact that it is driven by possibly the most establishment of establishment figures in the likes of Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Farage and co is something of which I struggle to see the logic of.

 

Remainers, think that they are attempting to subvert a hard right takeover of the UK. To me this seems far more logical, but then I voted remain, and haven't spent the time since, contradicting my vote by arguing in support of the opposite side of the argument.

 

 

 

Johnson, Mogg, and Farage are not "establishment figures". By no stretch of the imagination could they be described as such. You really should look beyond Twitter dabate to understand what is going on.

[Martin_T]

31 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Johnson, Mogg, and Farage are not "establishment figures". By no stretch of the imagination could they be described as such. You really should look beyond Twitter dabate to understand what is going on.

 

Yes Francis, the former Mayor of London and Foreign secretary is most definitely not an establishment figure.

 

Neither is an investment fund owner, whose family have been part of the English aristocracy for centuries.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

Just now, Martin_T said:

 

Yes Francis, the former Mayor of London and Foreign secretary is most definitely not an establishment figure.

 

Neither is an investment fund owner, whose family have been part of the English aristocracy for centuries.

 

 

All that is true but they are still anti-establishment which is a large part of their appeal ro their supporters.

[CJGJ]

Honda now to close UK office and more with loss of 3500 jobs

 

Happy now Brexiteers..........leading the country to rack and ruin and still trying to justify it

 

Rich backers look to leave UK whilst telling the rest of us tough luck..sums many of them up

[Victorian]

28 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

Honda now to close UK office and more with loss of 3500 jobs

 

Happy now Brexiteers..........leading the country to rack and ruin and still trying to justify it

 

Rich backers look to leave UK whilst telling the rest of us tough luck..sums many of them up

 

Disgusting.     This government is utterly culpable.     

[doctor jambo]

32 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

Honda now to close UK office and more with loss of 3500 jobs

 

Happy now Brexiteers..........leading the country to rack and ruin and still trying to justify it

 

Rich backers look to leave UK whilst telling the rest of us tough luck..sums many of them up

Without being funny about it- most of the jobs lost are in areas that voted to leave.......

Honda are keeping their UK headquarters , but closing the factory

[Cade]

But but but but but it's just a business decision and nothing to do wi' brexit likes!

 

The fact that a hard brexit would be catastrophic for business and looks more likely by the day is only a pure coincidence.

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

Now that there is a major trade deal between the EU & Japan there isn't the same need for Honda to keep a manufacturing plant in the EU.

This is Honda's only plant in the EU and it doesn't seem that Honda is opening another plant elsewhere in Europe, they simply don't need to, they can bring the jobs back to Japan and still enjoy tariff free entry into the EU market.

 

 

[Cade]

13 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Now that there is a major trade deal between the EU & Japan there isn't the same need for Honda to keep a manufacturing plant in the EU.

This is Honda's only plant in the EU and it doesn't seem that Honda is opening another plant elsewhere in Europe, they simply don't need to, they can bring the jobs back to Japan and still enjoy tariff free entry into the EU market.

 

 

100% bang on. 

Under the EU/Japan trade deal, tariffs on cars are dropping from the current 20% down to 0% over the next seven years.

It'll be cheaper for Japanese car makers to build in Japan then ship them to Europe than build in the UK.