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i8hibsh

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coppercrutch

Saw an interesting programme last night about this on BBC1.

 

The main thrust of the argument was that we were told 30 years ago the oil would have run dry by now. It has not. The experts said so at the time and they were completely wrong. That argument was used to state that we 'could' have another 30 years, or more, of oil still sitting there waiting to be extracted.

 

Fair enough argument. But what they failed to point out is that these 'experts' were wrong once before. What if they are wrong again ? And I am not talking about them underestimating the supplies. What if they are overestimating the supplies ? What if in 5 years they all come out again and say 'Oh well we were wrong again, all the oil is gone'.

 

Why should we trust these 'experts' when they have been proven to be woefully inaccurate with their predictions in the past..........

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Saw an interesting programme last night about this on BBC1.

 

The main thrust of the argument was that we were told 30 years ago the oil would have run dry by now. It has not. The experts said so at the time and they were completely wrong. That argument was used to state that we 'could' have another 30 years, or more, of oil still sitting there waiting to be extracted.

 

Fair enough argument. But what they failed to point out is that these 'experts' were wrong once before. What if they are wrong again ? And I am not talking about them underestimating the supplies. What if they are overestimating the supplies ? What if in 5 years they all come out again and say 'Oh well we were wrong again, all the oil is gone'.

 

Why should we trust these 'experts' when they have been proven to be woefully inaccurate with their predictions in the past..........

 

It's all about whether it can be extracted at an economic price.

 

If we were still drilling with technology from 30 years ago and prices were static, then we would have "run out". But of course, technology moves on and prices go up, making previously non-viable reserves viable.

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....Here is what they have done

 

Scrapped tolls on the Forth Road Bridge. What a joke!!! this created much needed revenue by charging commuters who opt out of living in Edinburgh for the cheaper housing outside a little something to come in...

 

Just to clarify i8, commuters who opted out of living in Edinburgh were never charged for coming in.

 

And the original charter specified that the tolls were only in place to pay of the loan secured to build the thing in the first place. That loan was re-paid years ago.

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There could be loads of gold in my attic. Wouldn't quit my job based on that, though.

 

If you want to compare the two;

 

It's like you HAVE **** loads of gold in your attic, but you have to share it with the old street. You could quit your job and keep the rest of it.

There's also the possibility that you have the same again in the basement.

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Guest casper
Why should we trust these 'experts' when they have been proven to be woefully inaccurate with their predictions in the past..........

 

They were not wrong about the amount of oils out there.

They could not foresee the improvements in technology that allow far greater amounts to be extracted economically.

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It's all about whether it can be extracted at an economic price.

 

If we were still drilling with technology from 30 years ago and prices were static, then we would have "run out". But of course, technology moves on and prices go up, making previously non-viable reserves viable.

 

Correct!

 

This is what now makes the previously unavailable oil off the Western Isles, and some of the oil in the North Sea accessible.

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Guest S.U.S.S.
Correct!

 

This is what now makes the previously unavailable oil off the Western Isles, and some of the oil in the North Sea accessible.

 

So will the SNP reduce the tax on the oil should we become ind?

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So will the SNP reduce the tax on the oil should we become ind?

 

No, because they'd need the money to support all the workshy wasters that make up a huge proportion of this country's population. :sad:

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So will the SNP reduce the tax on the oil should we become ind?

 

Whose to say the SNP would be in power after Independence?

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John Findlay
No, because they'd need the money to support all the workshy wasters that make up a huge proportion of this country's population. :sad:

 

I assume you are meaning the whole of the UK?

 

I can assure you there are lots of wasters in England.

 

 

 

 

John

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I assume you are meaning the whole of the UK?

 

I can assure you there are lots of wasters in England.

 

 

 

 

John

 

Numerically there may be, but proportionally there are many many more in Scotland, thanks to Glasgow and its environs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therapist

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coppercrutch
It's all about whether it can be extracted at an economic price.

 

If we were still drilling with technology from 30 years ago and prices were static, then we would have "run out". But of course, technology moves on and prices go up, making previously non-viable reserves viable.

 

I understand that all. However people have made predictions about this sort of thing before. What happens if the price falls, and a lot of these 'viable' fields suddenly become 'unviable' ?

 

I know this looks unlikely at present but many things throughout history have looked unlikely...........and then happened.

 

The yankee boy from the programme last night summed it up perfectly - "I work in the biggest casino in the World - The oil industry"

 

That is how the people "in the know" see it. One big gamble. I am not sure we should be pinning the future of Scotland on one big gamble...

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CC, can you confirm you're a "glass half empty" person? ;)

 

If it's not property, it's the oil industry.......:sad:

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coppercrutch
Numerically there may be, but proportionally there are many many more in Scotland, thanks to Glasgow and its environs.Therapist

 

I would agree !!

 

I would be far less against the idea of an Independent Scotland if half of the country was just disposed off. The left hand side in general. ;)

 

I do like the Union and I am very proud to be British.

 

I do see however - Scotland as a nation could be a decent wee country by itself IF we didn't have to support the west coast **** that deserve to be shot.

 

So as long as that situation remains I would prefer the union.

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coppercrutch
CC, can you confirm you're a "glass half empty" person? ;)

 

If it's not property, it's the oil industry.......:sad:

 

Nah quite the opposite really. I am pretty upbeat about most things.

 

However whenever I see the words describing a situation as 'BOOM' I am pretty certain what is coming next....;)

 

History supports that view pretty much with a 100% success rate.

 

Who am I to argue with history. :rolleyes:

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Who am I to argue with history. :rolleyes:

 

History is precisely the reason why many of the financial world's risk models have gone so spectacularly awry. :)

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Nah quite the opposite really. I am pretty upbeat about most things.

 

However whenever I see the words describing a situation as 'BOOM' I am pretty certain what is coming next....;)

 

History supports that view pretty much with a 100% success rate.

 

Who am I to argue with history. :rolleyes:

 

Which shows to me anyway why capitalism is just gambling under a different name. :rolleyes:

 

re the oil industry, I never saw the programme last night but I read an article that mentioned that from the very off the oil companies and the Govt have always been at loggerheads over taxation of the oil produced.

 

Wouldn't it be better then that the State controlled the exploration and exploitation of what is essentially a national resource, rather than have private (usually non-national) organisations profitting?

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People seem to be forgetting that we could have the same amount of oil to the west of Scotland as we currently do in the North Sea.

 

there could be oil on the moon. Should the Russians and the Yanks start spending the wealth from this now?

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In conclusuion

 

Nationalists = wrong

Unionists = right

 

lol

 

I would love Question time to come to Edinburgh with the chubby crusader on the panel

 

I'd rip him to shreds

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there could be oil on the moon. Should the Russians and the Yanks start spending the wealth from this now?

 

So you think that the moon was previously home to thousands of different plants and animals?

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I don't see why where he comes from is of any relevance whatsoever. If I recall correctly, he's English - but so what?

 

So what, indeed. However, this guy has no cultural links with the people of Shetland, other than living there now. My point is that his efforts to break free are not representative of the general sentiment of the people of Shetland.

 

As for the rest of your post, it's irrelevant. Oil supplies are used as an argument in favour of Scottish independence, I've never once heard anyone use them as an argument in favour of the Union.

 

I don't see it as irrelevant, in relation to the post (from you) that I was replying to, which seemed to imply that the oil was actually Shetland's. My point was that it probably wouldn't be. Certainly not all of it, anyway.

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In conclusuion

 

Nationalists = wrong

Unionists = right

 

lol

 

I would love Question time to come to Edinburgh with the chubby crusader on the panel

 

I'd rip him to shreds

 

That settles it.

 

Question time did come to Edinburgh.

 

Salmond and Hardeep Singh Kohli ripped shread out of Foulkes, they would have done it to McConnel but he was too scared to turn up. Good to see you're up to date on political affairs though.

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Which shows to me anyway why capitalism is just gambling under a different name. :rolleyes:

 

re the oil industry, I never saw the programme last night but I read an article that mentioned that from the very off the oil companies and the Govt have always been at loggerheads over taxation of the oil produced.

 

Wouldn't it be better then that the State controlled the exploration and exploitation of what is essentially a national resource, rather than have private (usually non-national) organisations profitting?

 

Quick answer, no, it wouldn't be.

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Saw an interesting programme last night about this on BBC1.

 

The main thrust of the argument was that we were told 30 years ago the oil would have run dry by now. It has not. The experts said so at the time and they were completely wrong. That argument was used to state that we 'could' have another 30 years, or more, of oil still sitting there waiting to be extracted.

 

Fair enough argument. But what they failed to point out is that these 'experts' were wrong once before. What if they are wrong again ? And I am not talking about them underestimating the supplies. What if they are overestimating the supplies ? What if in 5 years they all come out again and say 'Oh well we were wrong again, all the oil is gone'.

 

Why should we trust these 'experts' when they have been proven to be woefully inaccurate with their predictions in the past..........

 

While I am no Peak Oil supporter, I have to disagree with your verdict that they were "woefully inaccurate".

 

Peak Oil is not simply about oil running dry, it is about the commercial production of oil. I don't think humans will ever have the technical capacity to extract all the oil out the ground. Even if we did, the world's economy may never support the prices that would be needed to fund the required E&P activities.

 

The existence of oil is one thing, the level of oil reserves and production is quite different. As the latter is hugely dependent on the prevailing price, demand and supply may one day find an equilibrium where none is produced.

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Guest S.U.S.S.
So you think that the moon was previously home to thousands of different plants and animals?

 

Dont be silly Toggie, thats Mars obviously! Have you not seen the movies?

 

Nasty bunch those Martians!;)

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So you think that the moon was previously home to thousands of different plants and animals?

 

Can you prove that there wasn't?

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That settles it.

 

Question time did come to Edinburgh.

 

Salmond and Hardeep Singh Kohli ripped shread out of Foulkes, they would have done it to McConnel but he was too scared to turn up. Good to see you're up to date on political affairs though.

 

Would that not have been passed your bedtime?;)

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That settles it.

 

Question time did come to Edinburgh.

 

Salmond and Hardeep Singh Kohli ripped shread out of Foulkes, they would have done it to McConnel but he was too scared to turn up. Good to see you're up to date on political affairs though.

 

Who thinks Google just had the following hit from Toggie88's computer......

 

 

 

Has Question time been to Edinburgh?

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I think theres a good reason for that ;) but fair play to Makween for putting his head above the parapet with a new angle on this in the thread. However I still don't understand this argument..."Oil supplies as an argument in favour of the Union."

 

What substantive points support this argument .. 2 or 3 will be fine !

 

Er, read my post again. Do it more carefully this time. The whole point that I was making was that his post was irrelevant because oil isn't ever used as an argument in favour of the Union. Ie, I wasn't using it as one either.

 

Hopefully you'll understand third time round - no-one else seems to have had a problem - but if not then I'll be quite happy to explain again, I'll even try and use shorter words if you like.

 

If you want to compare the two;

 

It's like you HAVE **** loads of gold in your attic, but you have to share it with the old street. You could quit your job and keep the rest of it.

There's also the possibility that you have the same again in the basement.

 

That's a poor comparison, the whole street isn't made up of my family members.

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davemclaren
In conclusuion

 

Nationalists = wrong

Unionists = right

 

lol

 

I would love Question time to come to Edinburgh with the chubby crusader on the panel

 

I'd rip him to shreds

 

It would certainly liven up Question Time having you on it. :rolleyes:

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davemclaren
It's all about whether it can be extracted at an economic price.

 

If we were still drilling with technology from 30 years ago and prices were static, then we would have "run out". But of course, technology moves on and prices go up, making previously non-viable reserves viable.

 

This is the key point. Based on 1970s predictions based on their view of the economics of oil at the time ( and even after the 1973 oil crisis ) the North Sea would be deemed on the the decline by now. However, with the rise in oil prices the amount of economically extractable oil increases.

 

At this rate us Scots will be living like the Saudis if we take control of it. Now where's my camel.... :P

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Chuck Berry
In conclusuion

 

Nationalists = wrong

Unionists = right

 

lol

 

I would love Question time to come to Edinburgh with the chubby crusader on the panel

 

I'd rip him to shreds

 

Is this just an elaborate wind-up or, God forbid, are you for real? :wacko:

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Chuck Berry
This is the key point. Based on 1970s predictions based on their view of the economics of oil at the time ( and even after the 1973 oil crisis ) the North Sea would be deemed on the the decline by now. However, with the rise in oil prices the amount of economically extractable oil increases.

 

Listening to the experts on the programme last night, it is generally accepted that you can extract 30-35% of the oil from a particular field. Due to advances in expertese and technology, the North Sea fields manage to extract 60-65% of the available oil. There are also fields which previously were considered unviable or unreachable, such as those of the Western Isles, which are now being looked at more seriously.

 

At this rate us Scots will be living like the Saudis if we take control of it. Now where's my camel.... :P

 

The North Sea produces more oil than Kuwait, and Kuwait doesn't strike me as a country that's short of a bob or two.

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The North Sea produces more oil than Kuwait, and Kuwait doesn't strike me as a country that's short of a bob or two.

 

As a comparison, Kuwait produces almost twice as much oil as the UK North Sea, and has a population less than half the size of Scotland. Kuwait's GDP per head is about US$55k, while Scotland's is about US$34k. One would expect the latter to rise, if the North Sea mineral rights were awarded to an independent Scotland.

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Who thinks Google just had the following hit from Toggie88's computer......

 

 

 

Has Question time been to Edinburgh?

 

If I recall it was at Heriot Watt. How do I know? I keep up to date with political affairs...and oh aye, I was there.

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Can you prove that there wasn't?

 

This is now beyond ridiculous.

 

We've have utter garbage from yourself since this thread began, now that you've lost every single argument you have made, you are now talking about life and oil on the moon.

 

I'd like to thank you for your contribution to this thread. It has done nothing but improve support for Independence.

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Er, read my post again. Do it more carefully this time. The whole point that I was making was that his post was irrelevant because oil isn't ever used as an argument in favour of the Union. Ie, I wasn't using it as one either.

 

Hopefully you'll understand third time round - no-one else seems to have had a problem - but if not then I'll be quite happy to explain again, I'll even try and use shorter words if you like.

 

 

 

That's a poor comparison, the whole street isn't made up of my family members.

 

So you are saying that the whole of the UK is made up of your "family".

 

Or is it just your cousins in the west?

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coppercrutch
So you are saying that the whole of the UK is made up of your "family".

 

Or is it just your cousins in the west?

0110au.jpg

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It would certainly liven up Question Time having you on it. :rolleyes:

 

Dave Mc!!!! 190 posts it has taken you to get on this thread!! must be letting it slip lol

 

Where you on Mod duty?;)

 

good to have you on board, your protege Toggie is fighting the fight for yous

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Guest S.U.S.S.
Dave Mc!!!! 190 posts it has taken you to get on this thread!! must be letting it slip lol

 

Where you on Mod duty?;)

 

good to have you on board, your protege Toggie is fighting the fight for yous

 

If he was on Mod duty ud have an infraction by now!

 

That and the fact Dave has a sense of humour rules him out.

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At this rate us Scots will be living like the Saudis

 

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

 

You've obviously never been to Saudi. I have, on a number of occasions, and I can assure you there is absolutely no way I'd want Scots to live like the Saudis. That country is a poo hole of the highest order.

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If I recall it was at Heriot Watt. How do I know? I keep up to date with political affairs...and oh aye, I was there.

 

I assume you were assisting Alex by carrying his packed supper. :rolleyes:

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I assume you were assisting Alex by carrying his packed supper. :rolleyes:

 

No, actually.

 

Putting up Missing posters for Jack McConnell.

 

Ended up getting chucked off campus just before it started because it was, and I quote "Not the time for Political discussion". Just shows you the high standard of security staff at Heriott Watt.

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Boaby Ewing
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

 

You've obviously never been to Saudi. I have, on a number of occasions, and I can assure you there is absolutely no way I'd want Scots to live like the Saudis. That country is a poo hole of the highest order.

 

The palaces are "a'right".

 

Can't say much for the burds though.

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So you are saying that the whole of the UK is made up of your "family".

 

Or is it just your cousins in the west?

 

I do actually have cousins in the West - there names are Alan and Carol-Anne - as well as two second cousins called Vicky and Danielle, so I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you're not making any bhigoted references. :)

 

Your comparison referred to Scotland as "my house", making me assume that everyone that I was sharing the oil with was my family. Given that my only tie with most of the rest of Scotland is nationality - which I feel that I share with the rest of the citizens of Her Britannic Majesty Queen Elizabeth II's United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - I thought that this was the valid extension of your point.

 

Could you please confirm what your point was about my cousins in the West? I don't really see much relevance.

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No, actually.

 

Putting up Missing posters for Jack McConnell.

 

Ended up getting chucked off campus just before it started because it was, and I quote "Not the time for Political discussion". Just shows you the high standard of security staff at Heriott Watt.

 

Toggie what I am willing to wager is that in 10 + years you will have completely different political views than you do now.

 

As soon as you get out into the real world way from being a student you will leanr many things

 

Student's know absolute nothing about life pal

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