What does it take to be promoted from Div. 1?

[Gibbster]

Rather than be drawn into the managerial debate I?ve been thinking what does it take to be promoted ? it?s not something I?ve paid a great deal of attention to previously so, with the intention of making sense of what is required, I thought I?d have a look at:

• How Many points & wins does it take?
  
• Are goals scored more important than conceded?
  
• How many have gone to the wire? And
  
• How many teams return to the top flight at the first time of asking?
  

 

I?ve looked at the last 14 seasons to build a picture of what it takes to win the title and the results are set out below. I think it makes for interesting reading and hope you do to?

 

Having completed the exercise the average league standings for Division 1 Champions are:

 

P 36 W 21.35 D 8.8 L 5.9 F 66.1 A 31.6 Pts. 72.8

 

Further, over 14 years only 2 teams have gone back up at the 1^st time of asking.

 

Based on this any team looking to win the league next season can only afford 6 losses max and must be looking to win 22+ games.

 

N.B. All averages are over a 14 year period unless otherwise stated.

 

How Many points & wins does it take?

 

Points

The average number of points required to gain promotion is 72.8, although this points total would not have been enough for top spot in 8 of the last 14 years. The highest points total of 81 was amassed by Falkirk in ?02/03 when they were denied promotion for lack of facilities and the lowest total of points 65 was St. Johnstone in 08/09.

 

On average first place is 8.5 points ahead of 2^nd.

 

Wins

The average number of wins for the top finishing team is 21.35 with a high of 25 (Falkirk ?02/03) and low of 17. On average the top team wins 3.36 games more than 2^nd place ? only once has the winning team not won more games than the 2^nd placed team in 2006/07 when Gretna and St Johnstone both won 19 games.

 

Are goals scored more important than conceded?

 

The average number of Goals scored by a Championship winning team is 66.1 and goals against is 31.6. Average Goal difference for top spot teams is 34.4 versus 21.1 for 2^nd place. The only team to win the league with a lower Goal Difference than 2^nd place was St Mirren in 05/06 however; they won 5 more games and conceded 6 less goals than St Johnstone.

 

There have been three occasions where the 2^nd place team has outscored the top team 2000/01, 2005/06 & 2013/14. But only once has a 2^nd place team had a better defensive record than the winners: St Mirren in 2004/05 but they only scored 41 goals that season ? 25 less than winners Falkirk.

 

The average number of goals scored per game, by champion winning teams is 1.83 with a high of 2.22 and a low of 1.44. Importantly that low of 1.44, St Mirren in 2005/06, was supported by the 3^rd best defensive record in the last 15 years ? only 28 Goals conceded.

 

The average number of goals conceded per game, by champion winning teams is 0.88 with a high of 1.11 and a low of 0.72. Both the High and the low have relevance. The low was Dundee this season with the best defensive record in the past 15 years having, importantly, only conceded 26 goals as Hamilton in 2^nd outscored them by 14 Goals but conceded 41.

 

How many have gone to the wire?

 

There have been 3 times in 15 years when there has been 2 points or less in it:

 

2003/04

1.Inverness Caled. Th. 36 21 7 8 67-33 70 Champions

2.Clyde 36 20 9 7 64-40 69

 

2005/06

1.Gretna 36 19 9 8 70-40 66 Promoted

2.St Johnstone 36 19 8 9 65-42 65

 

2013/14

 

1.Dundee 36 21 6 9 54-26 69 Promoted

2.Hamilton Academical 36 19 10 7 68-41 67

 

Otherwise the gap has been at least 7 points. (This would have been 4 if not for Dundee?s 25 point deduction in 2011/12)

 

 

How many teams return to the top flight at the first time of asking?

 

In the last 14 years only Inverness 2009/10 & Dundee 2013/14. If you broaden the sample out to 16 years you can add hibs to the Bouncebackability club.

 

 

 

 

All stats based on league tables from http://www.league321.com/scotland-football-historic-league-tables.html

 

I used Dundee as 2^nd place in Division 1 2011/12 for my analysis as they would have been second if not for the 25 point deduction.

[Tasavallan]

You missed the most pertinent question: how many points are needed to get promoted with a -25 pt start?

[Tasavallan]

If you broaden the sample out to 16 years you can add hibs to the Bouncebackability club.

Hibeesbouncebackability, surely?

[letsalldothebeattie]

Dont think we should look at specific points etc on how to win the Championship next season. Should be about winning as many games as possible. Dundee won 21 of 36 thats a decent record should at least maybe target 20-25 wins with a couple of defeats.

[Big Moysey]

Good information but think that next years league is going to be unique. The big questions hang over both us and new rangers with regards admin. Will we be out? Very likely yes. Will they be in? Very likely yes.

With a 25 point hurdle to climb for the new rangers, stats could meaningless

[Statto]

I was having a look at this season's Championship table and the one thing that stuck out for me was the lack of goals scored away from home. The highest is Dundee with 27 goals in 18 games (1.5 per game). We've scored 23 in the same number of games and over the course of the season, we haven't been anything special and yet only 4 goals less than the best team in the Championship.

 

With this in mind, our home form next season could be really important.

[Pants Shaton]

These are unprecedented times for the 2nd tier, with Hearts and Rangers competing with the diddy clubs. Not sure the stats will be all that relevant.

[Ibrahim Tall]

If another SPL team goes down with us is imagine next year could easily be a record low points total for the winner. Would easily be the most 'competitive' that leagues been.

[amadjambo]

I think 6 losses would be too many next season.

 

It's going to take something special from us to win the league, but I think the lads are capable.

 

 

 

[ToYouToMe]

The big difference though is the fall back of the playoff. That helps our cause no end and we should finish top two even with the Hobbits joining us down there.

[Pants Shaton]

 

If another SPL team goes down with us is imagine next year could easily be a record low points total for the winner. Would easily be the most 'competitive' that leagues been.

 

Not if that team is Hibernian.

 

Back to back relegation guaranteed. Club in decline.

[Gibbster]

This season, as a spectacle,will be unique but to suggest the rest will be also rans is ridiculous. Is the quality of the 1 Div really much fifferent to the bottom 6? I'm not conviced.

 

We can't rely on a second admin event for Rangers

Falkirk got 66 points last season and always cause us problems.

If Hamilton stay down then what's to suggest they cant recapture this years form?

Any SPL club coming down would provide a challenge.

Traditionally we are terrible at breaking down and beating teams we are expected to beat.

 

We need to assemble a team, playing style and mindset to be ready from the off. Teams that go down rarely reverse that in a season,if we want to - what needs to be done?

 

We need to be impossible to beat,

We need to score a number of goals that we've only managed 3 times in 27 years,

We need a defensive record that weve only had twice in 27 Years

 

I believe it can be done but the Board, Management, Players and Supporters cannot underestimate the enormity of the task.

 

History is a good basis for understanding the scale of the task ahead and setting expectations.

[jim747]

Finishing top

[rudi]

Next seasons championship/division 1 will be like no other IMO, you'll have 2 of the biggest teams in Scotland playing in it, win bonuses will be up for the smaller teams not to mention the prestige of playing us and the hun, smaller teams will raise their games against us more so than say against Alloa or Dumbarton so what it will take is any ones guess, I think we may have to put up with a few draws.

[Sarah O]

Just win aw oor games.

 

Easy.

[Pants Shaton]

Most teams that get relegated are on a downward spiral. We're on the up.

 

The 11 diddy teams in that league won't know what's hit them.

[Locky]

Not statistical in anyway but fan base could play a part. Imagine we will have bigger away crowds than any team in the league minus Rangers of course. That could spur us on to pick up much needed points on the way.

 

Hopefully the home crowds will stay healthy too meaning Tynecastle will as ever be a tough place to come to.

[A_A wehatethehibs]

It will take at least 90 points to win the championship next season with Rangers there (assuming they don't go bust and do get miller and boyd as mccoist clearly plans).

 

A big ask.

[Rudolf's Mate]

I was about to start a thread asking how many points would be required to win the Championship however, I found this one.

 

It wasn't a case of how many points will we need and more what would be required for anyone.

 

It was also interesting reading some of the posts on this one. Someone mentioned that 6 losses would be too many to win. I guess it would also depend on the amount of draws.

 

We're not even 1/3 of the way through the fixtures yet therefore it's difficult to properly gauge. My personal thought is between 73-76 will be enough. Before the season kicked off I would have said higher however I am factoring in some losses for whoever wins.

[Snake Plissken]

Most teams that get relegated are on a downward spiral. We're on the up.

 

The 11 diddy teams in that league won't know what's hit them.

 

 

How did this pearl of wisdom go unnoticed at the time?

[Pants Shaton]

 

 

 

 

How did this pearl of wisdom go unnoticed at the time?

 

It's great to be proven correct...yet again.

[Strachsuit]

I was about to start a thread asking how many points would be required to win the Championship however, I found this one.

 

It wasn't a case of how many points will we need and more what would be required for anyone.

 

It was also interesting reading some of the posts on this one. Someone mentioned that 6 losses would be too many to win. I guess it would also depend on the amount of draws.

 

We're not even 1/3 of the way through the fixtures yet therefore it's difficult to properly gauge. My personal thought is between 73-76 will be enough. Before the season kicked off I would have said higher however I am factoring in some losses for whoever wins.

 

With the gulf between Hearts/Rangers and the rest, 73-76 points will be nowhere near enough this season. I think we need to get to something like 84. That would be 4 defeats and 4 draws with 28 wins. I genuinely think it will be that close between us and the huns that we will need to keep winning. In fairness, at our current points ratio we would surpass the 100 point mark but of course we will falter at some point. The big thing for me is how long we can keep going undefeated to really crank the pressure up on Sevco.

[Rudolf's Mate]

With the gulf between Hearts/Rangers and the rest, 73-76 points will be nowhere near enough this season. I think we need to get to something like 84. That would be 4 defeats and 4 draws with 28 wins. I genuinely think it will be that close between us and the huns that we will need to keep winning. In fairness, at our current points ratio we would surpass the 100 point mark but of course we will falter at some point. The big thing for me is how long we can keep going undefeated to really crank the pressure up on Sevco.

 

Admittedly I'm banking on newco losing a min of 6 games and drawing around 6 also.

[Strachsuit]

 

 

Admittedly I'm banking on newco losing a min of 6 games and drawing around 6 also.

 

Much as I hate to admit it, I don't think there is much chance of that. They have drawn 1 and lost 2 so far but realistically there aren't many teams in this division that will take points off them. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't drop any more points at Ibrox outwith our next visit and Hibs. We need to keep the pressure on.

[Rudolf's Mate]

 

Much as I hate to admit it, I don't think there is much chance of that. They have drawn 1 and lost 2 so far but realistically there aren't many teams in this division that will take points off them. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't drop any more points at Ibrox outwith our next visit and Hibs. We need to keep the pressure on.

 

Yep it might be wishful thinking on my part.

 

I was also taking into account their ageing forward line which hasn't exactly set the heather on fire. That said I see they brought Daly on late and he scored 2. Hopefully they persist with the OAP's upfront!

[RobNox]

It's great to be proven correct...yet again.

Except there's only 9 diddy teams, as opposed to 11, unless you're including Rangers and Hibs reserves

[Pants Shaton]

Except there's only 9 diddy teams, as opposed to 11, unless you're including Rangers and Hibs reserves

 

What's 2 extra teams to a peerless visionary?

[RealMaroonCF]

I've looked into this in some depth already.

 

In the last ten years the average is 72 points to win the championship. 79 is the highest amount in that period.

 

Originally I thought 75-76 would be enough but I've a feeling 82-83 will be needed now. There will be something like 2-5 points between ourselves and the hun, then a 15-18 point gap.

 

[graygo]

Much as I hate to admit it, I don't think there is much chance of that. They have drawn 1 and lost 2 so far but realistically there aren't many teams in this division that will take points off them. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't drop any more points at Ibrox outwith our next visit and Hibs. We need to keep the pressure on.

 

Agree with this.

 

Just realised at the weekend that had Rangers managed to beat us at Ibrox on the opening day of the season they would be level on points with us assuming they win their game in hand.

 

Also, if my Auntie had baws ...........

[Boozyuzi]

So if we are thinking that 84 points will be required then we need 56 more points from the remaining 26 games. That gives us the space for 17 wins, 5 draws & 4 defeats In the remaining games. To guarantee the Championship I think we are needing 90 points.

 

As we know it will come down the 3 games left against Rangers.

[Musemic]

It's probably worth pointing out that Sevco have played HMFC, H1b5 and QotS at home in the first round of fixtures, which means they still have to play 2 away games against, arguably, the toughest opposition they will face in the Championship. I fancy they will drop lots of points in those 6 games.

[We_are_the_Hearts]

It's probably worth pointing out that Sevco have played HMFC, H1b5 and QotS at home in the first round of fixtures, which means they still have to play 2 away games against, arguably, the toughest opposition they will face in the Championship. I fancy they will drop lots of points in those 6 games.

 

That's a good point.

[Silvery_Moon]

 

 

Agree with this.

 

Just realised at the weekend that had Rangers managed to beat us at Ibrox on the opening day of the season they would be level on points with us assuming they win their game in hand.

 

Also, if my Auntie had baws ...........

 

Shows the importance of winning the head to head matches with Rangers. A win in November will put us in a great position.

[Pans Jambo]

Think there's going to be a record season in the Championship:

 

Most games won

Highest points tally

Most goals scored

Least goals conceded

Longest run without a defeat

 

Guess who?

[Gibbster]

We're well on course to blast most of these records and my analytical summary:

 

"Based on this any team looking to win the league next season can only afford 6 losses max and must be looking to win 22+ games."

 

suggests that Hibs (5 losses so far) and Rangers (6) are done for!

 

 

Rather than be drawn into the managerial debate I?ve been thinking what does it take to be promoted ? it?s not something I?ve paid a great deal of attention to previously so, with the intention of making sense of what is required, I thought I?d have a look at:

• How Many points & wins does it take?
• Are goals scored more important than conceded?
• How many have gone to the wire? And
• How many teams return to the top flight at the first time of asking?

I?ve looked at the last 14 seasons to build a picture of what it takes to win the title and the results are set out below. I think it makes for interesting reading and hope you do to?

Having completed the exercise the average league standings for Division 1 Champions are:

P 36 W 21.35 D 8.8 L 5.9 F 66.1 A 31.6 Pts. 72.8

Further, over 14 years only 2 teams have gone back up at the 1^st time of asking.

Based on this any team looking to win the league next season can only afford 6 losses max and must be looking to win 22+ games.

N.B. All averages are over a 14 year period unless otherwise stated.

How Many points & wins does it take?

Points
The average number of points required to gain promotion is 72.8, although this points total would not have been enough for top spot in 8 of the last 14 years. The highest points total of 81 was amassed by Falkirk in ?02/03 when they were denied promotion for lack of facilities and the lowest total of points 65 was St. Johnstone in 08/09.

On average first place is 8.5 points ahead of 2^nd.

Wins
The average number of wins for the top finishing team is 21.35 with a high of 25 (Falkirk ?02/03) and low of 17. On average the top team wins 3.36 games more than 2^nd place ? only once has the winning team not won more games than the 2^nd placed team in 2006/07 when Gretna and St Johnstone both won 19 games.

Are goals scored more important than conceded?

The average number of Goals scored by a Championship winning team is 66.1 and goals against is 31.6. Average Goal difference for top spot teams is 34.4 versus 21.1 for 2^nd place. The only team to win the league with a lower Goal Difference than 2^nd place was St Mirren in 05/06 however; they won 5 more games and conceded 6 less goals than St Johnstone.

There have been three occasions where the 2^nd place team has outscored the top team 2000/01, 2005/06 & 2013/14. But only once has a 2^nd place team had a better defensive record than the winners: St Mirren in 2004/05 but they only scored 41 goals that season ? 25 less than winners Falkirk.

The average number of goals scored per game, by champion winning teams is 1.83 with a high of 2.22 and a low of 1.44. Importantly that low of 1.44, St Mirren in 2005/06, was supported by the 3^rd best defensive record in the last 15 years ? only 28 Goals conceded.

The average number of goals conceded per game, by champion winning teams is 0.88 with a high of 1.11 and a low of 0.72. Both the High and the low have relevance. The low was Dundee this season with the best defensive record in the past 15 years having, importantly, only conceded 26 goals as Hamilton in 2^nd outscored them by 14 Goals but conceded 41.

How many have gone to the wire?

There have been 3 times in 15 years when there has been 2 points or less in it:

2003/04

1.Inverness Caled. Th. 36 21 7 8 67-33 70 Champions
2.Clyde 36 20 9 7 64-40 69

2005/06

1.Gretna 36 19 9 8 70-40 66 Promoted
2.St Johnstone 36 19 8 9 65-42 65

2013/14

1.Dundee 36 21 6 9 54-26 69 Promoted
2.Hamilton Academical 36 19 10 7 68-41 67

Otherwise the gap has been at least 7 points. (This would have been 4 if not for Dundee?s 25 point deduction in 2011/12)


How many teams return to the top flight at the first time of asking?

In the last 14 years only Inverness 2009/10 & Dundee 2013/14. If you broaden the sample out to 16 years you can add hibs to the Bouncebackability club.




All stats based on league tables from http://www.league321.com/scotland-football-historic-league-tables.html

I used Dundee as 2^nd place in Division 1 2011/12 for my analysis as they would have been second if not for the 25 point deduction.

 

[Jamboelite]

Pretty interesting reading looking back Gibster.

[Rudolf's Mate]

My comment of Newco losing 6 and drawing 6 might not have been that far fetched

[DETTY29]

Gretna smashed the part time leagues then only managed just to get out Division 1.

 

Bloody plays offs this time