Where's Wally Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I read today that Tyncastle was valued at over ?20m way back when Cala were hovering. As I read it, real estate/land prices in Edinburgh on a whole are a lot lower than back then. UKIO have obviously taken a hit on the property they bought a few years ago to house their UK branch too. But how much would the Tynecastle land be worth today? Would planning for housing still be granted? The price of sale would surely be pegged to planning being granted. I dunno....but would anyone care to put a ballpark price to the land both with/without planning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregory House M.D. Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ?5-10m max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bert Le Clos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ?5-10m max. Do you just pull thoughts out of mid-air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Merse Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ?5-10m max. And you get that from....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Do you just pull thoughts out of mid-air? Need you ask mate?at that price then they must be wanting to pay upto the half way line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin_T Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And you get that from....? It's actually not too far off the mark. Due to the re-zoning and obviously the current market conditions, the sale of the ground would be lucky to realise ?8 to ?10 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Merse Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's actually not too far off the mark. Due to the re-zoning and obviously the current market conditions, the sale of the ground would be lucky to realise ?8 to ?10 million. It will have gone down, no doubt about that. But I'd be surprised if it's gone down by more than 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin_T Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It will have gone down, no doubt about that. But I'd be surprised if it's gone down by more than 50%. ?24 million was the value Cala Homes would have paid if they'd got planning permission for a ludicrous number of flats at the very top of the housing bubble in 2004/5. Conservatively they might have realised circa ?17 million from the deal. Since then the property market, particulary for flats, has virtually collapsed. The land at Tynecastle has now been re-zoned so that it is not available for residential use. A combination of those factors leads me to conclude that ?10 million is about the maximum value of the land in current market conditions. If VR wants to leave Hearts, he is going to have to take a major haircut regardless of which avenue he pursues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Hunt Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I read today that Tyncastle was valued at over ?20m way back when Cala were hovering. As I read it, real estate/land prices in Edinburgh on a whole are a lot lower than back then. UKIO have obviously taken a hit on the property they bought a few years ago to house their UK branch too. But how much would the Tynecastle land be worth today? Would planning for housing still be granted? The price of sale would surely be pegged to planning being granted. I dunno....but would anyone care to put a ballpark price to the land both with/without planning? Sniff, sniff ?5-10m max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bert Le Clos Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It will have gone down, no doubt about that. But I'd be surprised if it's gone down by more than 50%. Agreed. Remember Romanov paid over ?20m for the building in St Andrew's square. Now admittedly the building is worth a lot and the land is more central, but the land is a lot smaller than the ground Tynecastle is on and as it is a listed building, the area in St Andrew's Square has no development worth. I think you could still expect at least ?15m for Tynecastle and the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Merse Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ?24 million was the value Cala Homes would have paid if they'd got planning permission for a ludicrous number of flats at the very top of the housing bubble in 2004/5. Conservatively they might have realised circa ?17 million from the deal. Since then the property market, particulary for flats, has virtually collapsed. The land at Tynecastle has now been re-zoned so that it is not available for residential use. A combination of those factors leads me to conclude that ?10 million is about the maximum value of the land in current market conditions. If VR wants to leave Hearts, he is going to have to take a major haircut regardless of which avenue he pursues. If the council were to be in on any potential deal then I think they may give residential permission. We'll see though. I think ?10 million is the bottom range of it's value. It's certainly not anywhere near as low as ?5m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buba Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 To be honest I don't think that we'd even find a buyer. So not sure what price we'd get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinkster Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ?24 million was the value Cala Homes would have paid if they'd got planning permission for a ludicrous number of flats at the very top of the housing bubble in 2004/5. Conservatively they might have realised circa ?17 million from the deal. Since then the property market, particulary for flats, has virtually collapsed. The land at Tynecastle has now been re-zoned so that it is not available for residential use. A combination of those factors leads me to conclude that ?10 million is about the maximum value of the land in current market conditions. If VR wants to leave Hearts, he is going to have to take a major haircut regardless of which avenue he pursues. A fair summary. In the current climate, with no Banks keen on spec development anywhere north of ?5m is good. You need someone to take a view longer term , on the back of making money elsewhere on opening up the Green Belt. If only........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Palmer Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Seeing as everyone else is being bailed out these days.... ?20 Billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllyjamboDerbyshire Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 As a ground valuation expert, I'd say it's worth...phueww, not got a fff clue... Mind you, I reckon Vlad will have done his home work, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vlad-Stupid Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I thought we were swapping the land with the council? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wibble Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Land is only worth what a developer wants to pay you for it. In the current climate you'd be very lucky to find a developer with money, never mind finding 2 who want to outbid each other for it. Also, if it has been re-zoned then it's worth feck all in this market, there are already too many shops and offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngleParkMenace Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The old fountainbridge brewery was worth ?30 mil at the height of the property boom. Apparently its now worth 15mil and still not shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If we were offered ?12m for it then I'd be ripping someones hand off for that amount, I somehow think it will fall short of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamcraigbeattie Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In this climate its only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbee647 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The old fountainbridge brewery was worth ?30 mil at the height of the property boom. Apparently its now worth 15mil and still not shifting. The now sainsburys sight was sold for ?16m in 2003, a smaller area than Tynecastle Doubtful we will ever see those crazy property price days again, which is probably a good thing, I feel sorry for young people trying to get on the property ladder these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunter121 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The old fountainbridge brewery was worth ?30 mil at the height of the property boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scots civil war Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cala are undertaking some big projects around edinburgh at the moment off maybury road ratho trinity park,ferry road dont know if they are champing at the bit for more tracts of land,maybe in the future right enough if hearts own that pitch adjacent to tynecastle,then you have one ****off bit of land inc the old school.. i could see a themed tract of housing at this area as that and the fountainbridge brewery site are surely the remaing parts of greater edinburgh that can be developed for inner city living on a big scale....that in itself will have developers keeping an eye out dont see it happening for a few years though eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buba Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The now sainsburys sight was sold for ?16m in 2003, a smaller area than Tynecastle Doubtful we will ever see those crazy property price days again, which is probably a good thing, I feel sorry for young people trying to get on the property ladder these days I feel more sorry for young people that mortgaged up to the hilt at the height of the boom and now have negative equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heartsfc_fan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Were we not offered to buy the land at Straiton for ?1 many years ago? Or am I imagining something. Doesn't say anything here regarding the price, but it might jog peoples memories (this article is 7 years old): http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/hearts-sights-are-back-on-straiton-for-next-home-1.78881 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buba Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's a fair bit of land going spare near us and closer to the city centre that nobody's buying. I honestly think we couldn't sell the land if we wanted to. Add to that Romanov would want top dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawaii Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Didn't Vlad also buy the land behind the old stand and the school? Think I remember reading that the council were trying to put in place a clause that the land couldn't be sold for flats? Think the best option would be to offer the council the land for some that they own elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ?24 million was the value Cala Homes would have paid if they'd got planning permission for a ludicrous number of flats at the very top of the housing bubble in 2004/5. Conservatively they might have realised circa ?17 million from the deal. Since then the property market, particulary for flats, has virtually collapsed. The land at Tynecastle has now been re-zoned so that it is not available for residential use. A combination of those factors leads me to conclude that ?10 million is about the maximum value of the land in current market conditions. If VR wants to leave Hearts, he is going to have to take a major haircut regardless of which avenue he pursues. Okay, first up I'm not sure how you're getting a drop from ?24 to ?17m - iirc the higher figure based on maximum capacity were ambitious but not that ambitious. They would likely have been based on finding similar sized plots and consents in the nearby(ish) area with a bit added on top but the chances of dropping ?7m at detailed planning would be a little excessive. The price for an acre of prime residential probably was a bit higher back then and while the property market has struggled, I don't necessarily know if those who have had the financial means to hang on to land investments have been that badly affected when it comes to the type of land we're talking about. Re-zoning it would obviously have an effect but even if it's now marked for leisure and rec (or whatever it is zoned as?) there's absolutely no reason to think that couldn't or wouldn't change. In fact, I'd put money on it getting rezoned for residential if it was available for that sort of use....unless there's any unknown contamination or infrastructure constraints or something. Been a while since I worked with land and whatnot but I can't imagine how the situation would have changed quite so dramatically, even with the property market problem and the recession. Housing land is always required and always will be required. The only people who will really really lose out on values are those who can't afford to hang on to their investments and ride out the storm to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gasman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Okay, first up I'm not sure how you're getting a drop from ?24 to ?17m - iirc the higher figure based on maximum capacity were ambitious but not that ambitious. They would likely have been based on finding similar sized plots and consents in the nearby(ish) area with a bit added on top but the chances of dropping ?7m at detailed planning would be a little excessive. The figure of ?24m often quoted by CPR was a maximum (which by coincidence (!) was what was needed to clear the debt) it was never actually a bid on the table. It was based on the highest possible density of housing across the whole of the site, and all going for top dollar. It had no basis in reality, and did not seem to be based on anything more than that's what we wanted. The council at the time had said that there was no way that they would grant planning permission for such a development, so ?24m was just never going to happen. That was one of Save Our Hearts main concerns, that we were going to be rattling about in Murrayfield, paying the SRU rent, while still trying to service a multi-million pound debt. The figure we had at the time was that the Cala deal was only likely to realise about ?17m for Hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southside1874 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Like the St Andrews square building, I would imagine UKIO or UBIG just sitting on the land and using it as equity against borrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Kurtz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Like the St Andrews square building, I would imagine UKIO or UBIG just sitting on the land and using it as equity against borrowing. But the mark to market valuation would affect that. I believe there was a valuation carried out several months ago,which Romanov baulked at..circa 7 Million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbee647 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 cala are undertaking some big projects around edinburgh at the moment off maybury road ratho trinity park,ferry road dont know if they are champing at the bit for more tracts of land,maybe in the future right enough if hearts own that pitch adjacent to tynecastle,then you have one ****off bit of land inc the old school.. i could see a themed tract of housing at this area as that and the fountainbridge brewery site are surely the remaing parts of greater edinburgh that can be developed for inner city living on a big scale....that in itself will have developers keeping an eye out dont see it happening for a few years though eh That land belongs to the NBD, but now the school has there own pitch , they allow Hearts to use it as long as they pay for it's upkeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fermit the Krog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I read today that Tyncastle was valued at over ?20m way back when Cala were hovering. As I read it, real estate/land prices in Edinburgh on a whole are a lot lower than back then. UKIO have obviously taken a hit on the property they bought a few years ago to house their UK branch too. But how much would the Tynecastle land be worth today? Would planning for housing still be granted? The price of sale would surely be pegged to planning being granted. I dunno....but would anyone care to put a ballpark price to the land both with/without planning? 1 - When Cala were interested, depending on the amount of flats they got permission for the top end price that was quoted was around 23million. We were more likely to recieve closer to 17million. 2 - Given that we were likely to recieve 17million in 2004, I think it's fair to assume we'd now struggle to achieve 66% of that figure. 3 - to answer your question, at a guess - 10.5million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambofaefife Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At ?10million for the sale of Tynecastle this equates to ?1.6m per acre It has been along time then anybody has paid over a million an acre in Scotland, more likely ?750k per acre which give a value of the land at Tynecastle in the region of ?4.5 million, any developer in the current climate would also want to knock the remedation costs off this figure therefore you will be looking at roughly four million. Do you honestly believe UBIG will sell at the bottom of the ,arket then pay for a new bit land then pick up the construction costs. If they were to spend ?4m ish on new stand, waited, then waited a wee bit more untill property prices have rectified they could have an asset woth in excess of ?20m. It is basic economics, new builds at this moment are not viable whereas tarting up old stock is the way to go in the current climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At ?10million for the sale of Tynecastle this equates to ?1.6m per acre It has been along time then anybody has paid over a million an acre in Scotland, more likely ?750k per acre which give a value of the land at Tynecastle in the region of ?4.5 million, any developer in the current climate would also want to knock the remedation costs off this figure therefore you will be looking at roughly four million. Do you honestly believe UBIG will sell at the bottom of the ,arket then pay for a new bit land then pick up the construction costs. If they were to spend ?4m ish on new stand, waited, then waited a wee bit more untill property prices have rectified they could have an asset woth in excess of ?20m. It is basic economics, new builds at this moment are not viable whereas tarting up old stock is the way to go in the current climate. Far too sensible a post, you'll never last here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jambofaefife Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Far too sensible a post, you'll never last here In non sensible terms.....Hearts ain't going anywhere. A best new main stand with hotel bolted on or maybe just a new roof and minor alterations to keep HSE off their backs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbo Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My recollection of the terms of the CALA deal is that if the price calculated by the number of units that they were granted permission to build fell below ?20m, they had a choice of paying ?20m or walking away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In non sensible terms.....Hearts ain't going anywhere. A best new main stand with hotel bolted on or maybe just a new roof and minor alterations to keep HSE off their backs That's more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.T.F.Robertson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In non sensible terms.....Hearts ain't going anywhere. A best new main stand with hotel bolted on or maybe just a new roof and minor alterations to keep HSE off their backs If it's this absurdly logical, why the "desire" to build anew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin_T Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Okay, first up I'm not sure how you're getting a drop from ?24 to ?17m - iirc the higher figure based on maximum capacity were ambitious but not that ambitious. They would likely have been based on finding similar sized plots and consents in the nearby(ish) area with a bit added on top but the chances of dropping ?7m at detailed planning would be a little excessive. The price for an acre of prime residential probably was a bit higher back then and while the property market has struggled, I don't necessarily know if those who have had the financial means to hang on to land investments have been that badly affected when it comes to the type of land we're talking about. Re-zoning it would obviously have an effect but even if it's now marked for leisure and rec (or whatever it is zoned as?) there's absolutely no reason to think that couldn't or wouldn't change. In fact, I'd put money on it getting rezoned for residential if it was available for that sort of use....unless there's any unknown contamination or infrastructure constraints or something. Been a while since I worked with land and whatnot but I can't imagine how the situation would have changed quite so dramatically, even with the property market problem and the recession. Housing land is always required and always will be required. The only people who will really really lose out on values are those who can't afford to hang on to their investments and ride out the storm to some extent. It shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slap Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I read today that Tyncastle was valued at over ?20m way back when Cala were hovering. As I read it, real estate/land prices in Edinburgh on a whole are a lot lower than back then. UKIO have obviously taken a hit on the property they bought a few years ago to house their UK branch too. But how much would the Tynecastle land be worth today? Would planning for housing still be granted? The price of sale would surely be pegged to planning being granted. I dunno....but would anyone care to put a ballpark price to the land both with/without planning? Reckon around ?7M in todays stagnant housing market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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