shaun.lawson Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Tomorrow, UEFA will release the team coefficients, from which the seedings for both the play-offs and final stages of Euro 2012 will be calculated. And unless I'm very much mistaken, they're going to look like this: Play-offs Seeded teams: Croatia, Portugal, Ireland, Czech Republic Unseeded teams: Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Estonia Fantastic chance for Ireland to reach their first major tournament in a decade - just as long as they avoid the Turks, who are potential semi-finalists next summer. Final stages Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia Pot 3: Greece, Sweden, Denmark Pot 4: France* *unless all of Croatia, Portugal and Ireland somehow fail to get through the play-offs, which is inconceivable. At present, the Croats are in pole position to join Pot 3 if they qualify. Leaving at least the possibility of two of the Big Three being paired together in the group stages - with resultant repercussions for the knock-out phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moriarty Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Turkey won't reach the semi finals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Turkey won't reach the semi finals They did last time. And they've got Hiddink in charge now. Someone surprising will reach the last four; if they make it, and unless the draw screws them completely, my money's on them at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moriarty Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 They did last time. And they've got Hiddink in charge now. Someone surprising will reach the last four; if they make it, and unless the draw screws them completely, my money's on them at this point. No shit. However I can exclusively reveal you are havering. They just aren't up to the standard of 2008 (or indeed 2002) usual bet? :usualbet: :'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 No shit. However I can exclusively reveal you are havering. usual bet? :usualbet: :'> Ask me again after the draw in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moriarty Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Ask me again after the draw in early December. will do I will make a mildly bold prediction of a Germany triumph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritchies75 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I have always been against seeding tournaments, but even those who are in favour must admit it is ridiculous to have seeds and non seeds for the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 I have always been against seeding tournaments, but even those who are in favour must admit it is ridiculous to have seeds and non seeds for the play-offs. It'll be even more ridiculous when UEFA golden boys Portugal draw Estonia (NAP). Lawson's other play-off predictions: Turkey v Ireland Bosnia and Herzegovina v Croatia Montenegro v Czech Republic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gashauskis9 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Hope the Irish get stuffed, cheating feckers. Cheerfully joking about karma, yet when it happened to them they took it to parliament. Knobheads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 ... Someone surprising will reach the last four; ... Englandshire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boof Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Hope the Irish get stuffed, cheating feckers. Cheerfully joking about karma, yet when it happened to them they took it to parliament. Knobheads. Eh? What have I missed? Or am unable to remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Merse Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Turkey won't even qualify. Edit: I should add I think it's an absolute disgrace that the playoffs are seeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossthejambo Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Turkey won't even qualify. Edit: I should add I think it's an absolute disgrace that the playoffs are seeded. Don't know enough about Turkey to comment but totally agree with your last point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkin- hearts Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Don't know enough about Turkey to comment but totally agree with your last point. Yes I'm of the same mind, all these teams were runners-up so should be regarded as equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Englandshire? Hey - you never know. The ball is round and all that; and England do have previous for following up a shocking campaign (Euro 88, USA 94) with a surprising one (Italia 90, Euro 96). And surely this time, expectations can't be anything other than moderate - meaning the pressure on the players will be less for once. Unfortunately though, whereas the 1988-90 side was very good, this one is shocking. Unless we finally get ruthless and change the manager, a first round exit beckons. Eh? What have I missed? Or am unable to remember? Last night, Simon Cox of Ireland took the ball down with the aid of his arm, and smacked it into the chest of the onrushing Armenian 'keeper, who was outside his area. The result? Red card for Armenia. At 11 v 11, there was every chance Armenia would've won, and Ireland would be out. It was every bit as bad and crucial a decision as that involving Henry in Paris - yet it's more or less been glossed over as just "a bit of a dodgy call". The one-eyed hypocrisy of football fans and the media never ceases to amaze me; and as a result, I too hope they get stuffed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego10 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 The co-efficients are gash again. Turkey, who were in pot 2 for the qualifiers and reached the semis in 2008 and quarters in 2000 seeded below Ireland who haven't qualified since 1988 and were a pot 3 side. They make it up as they go along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 The co-efficients are gash again. Turkey, who were in pot 2 for the qualifiers and reached the semis in 2008 and quarters in 2000 seeded below Ireland who haven't qualified since 1988 and were a pot 3 side. They make it up as they go along. No they don't. The coefficients have nothing to do with 2000 or 1988: what next? You demand that all former World Cup winners are seeded every time they qualify, or something? The coefficients combine 20% of a side's qualification and finals record from 2008, 40% of their qualification and finals record from 2010, and 40% from their qualification record for 2012. Turkey have therefore lost part of the benefit from how they did in '08 (40% last time out reduced to 20% now); while Ireland are no longer punished so much for their horrific campaign under Stan 'Steve' Staunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego10 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 No they don't. The coefficients have nothing to do with 2000 or 1988: what next? You demand that all former World Cup winners are seeded every time they qualify, or something? The coefficients combine 20% of a side's qualification and finals record from 2008, 40% of their qualification and finals record from 2010, and 40% from their qualification record for 2012. Turkey have therefore lost part of the benefit from how they did in '08 (40% last time out reduced to 20% now); while Ireland are no longer punished so much for their horrific campaign under Stan 'Steve' Staunton. The last set of euro play-offs weren't seeded at all. Then you get the world cup play-offs seeded by world ranking. Then you get a co-efficient which somehow includes world cup qualifiers as part of its reckoning. Rules change for every tournament Shaun. I think it is bizarre Ireland are seeded ahead of 3 teams seeded ahead of them in the world and 2 ranked ahead of them in the seedings for this tournament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Merse Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Hey - you never know. The ball is round and all that; and England do have previous for following up a shocking campaign (Euro 88, USA 94) with a surprising one (Italia 90, Euro 96). And surely this time, expectations can't be anything other than moderate - meaning the pressure on the players will be less for once. Unfortunately though, whereas the 1988-90 side was very good, this one is shocking. Unless we finally get ruthless and change the manager, a first round exit beckons. Last night, Simon Cox of Ireland took the ball down with the aid of his arm, and smacked it into the chest of the onrushing Armenian 'keeper, who was outside his area. The result? Red card for Armenia. At 11 v 11, there was every chance Armenia would've won, and Ireland would be out. It was every bit as bad and crucial a decision as that involving Henry in Paris - yet it's more or less been glossed over as just "a bit of a dodgy call". The one-eyed hypocrisy of football fans and the media never ceases to amaze me; and as a result, I too hope they get stuffed now. Bit of a difference to be fair though. Henry deliberately handled, he almost held the ball in his palm for a brief second, he knew exactly what he was doing in an act of absolute blatant cheating. The call last night was a shocker and Ireland got the breaks but they didn't do anything particularly wrong - they just got lucky, they didn't cheat per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prince Buaben Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Why are Poland and Ukraine in the top top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 The last set of euro play-offs weren't seeded at all. Then you get the world cup play-offs seeded by world ranking. Then you get a co-efficient which somehow includes world cup qualifiers as part of its reckoning. Rules change for every tournament Shaun. I think it is bizarre Ireland are seeded ahead of 3 teams seeded ahead of them in the world and 2 ranked ahead of them in the seedings for this tournament. UEFA and FIFA use different systems, as is their prerogative: and for the record, I prefer UEFA's, as it does a better job of ensuring teams who continually stumble their way through (eg. France) are suitably punished by the seedings. FIFA's rankings are so bizarre, they recently had Holland top despite Spain being World and European Champions; and England 4th! And at least UEFA are being honest about the play-offs being seeded now. You're right that the Euro '04 play-offs weren't seeded; but by some unfathomable coincidence, all the big guns involved just so happened to draw the smaller teams regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Why are Poland and Ukraine in the top top? Because they're co-hosts. Host nations are always seeded for any major tournament: be it the World Cup, European Championship or Copa America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego10 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 UEFA and FIFA use different systems, as is their prerogative: and for the record, I prefer UEFA's, as it does a better job of ensuring teams who continually stumble their way through (eg. France) are suitably punished by the seedings. FIFA's rankings are so bizarre, they recently had Holland top despite Spain being World and European Champions; and England 4th! And at least UEFA are being honest about the play-offs being seeded now. You're right that the Euro '08 play-offs weren't seeded; but by some unfathomable coincidence, all the big guns involved just happened to draw the smaller teams regardless. well, there weren't any Euro 2008 play-offs, but you're right about the unseeded draw for 2004 being a miracle of good fortune for UEFA They used the world rankings to decide the pots for this set of qualifiers but ditched it for the play-offs. no consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 well, there weren't any Euro 2008 play-offs, but you're right about the unseeded draw for 2004 being a miracle of good fortune for UEFA They used the world rankings to decide the pots for this set of qualifiers but ditched it for the play-offs. no consistency. Er - no they didn't: http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/competitions/Regulations/91/48/36/914836_DOWNLOAD.pdf Page 50: For the calculation of the national team coefficient to be used for the qualifying draw or the final draw, two and a half cycles are taken into account, i.e. the last three qualifying competitions and the last two final tournaments. 1.2.1. Qualifying draw For the calculation of the national team coefficient to be used for the qualifying draw for the 2010?12 UEFA European Football Championship, the following competitions are taken into consideration: a] 2006 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) b] UEFA EURO 2008 (qualifying competition and final tournament) c] 2010 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition) 1.2.2. Final draw For the calculation of the national team coefficient to be used for the final draw for the 2010?12 UEFA European Football Championship, the following competitions are taken into consideration: a] UEFA EURO 2008 (qualifying competition and final tournament) b] 2010 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) c] UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition) This is the system UEFA always use now: for both the qualifiers and the finals. And all teams involved know this before the tournament begins too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego10 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Er - no they didn't: http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/competitions/Regulations/91/48/36/914836_DOWNLOAD.pdf Page 50: For the calculation of the national team coefficient to be used for the qualifying draw or the final draw, two and a half cycles are taken into account, i.e. the last three qualifying competitions and the last two final tournaments. 1.2.1. Qualifying draw For the calculation of the national team coefficient to be used for the qualifying draw for the 2010?12 UEFA European Football Championship, the following competitions are taken into consideration: a] 2006 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) b] UEFA EURO 2008 (qualifying competition and final tournament) c] 2010 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition) 1.2.2. Final draw For the calculation of the national team coefficient to be used for the final draw for the 2010?12 UEFA European Football Championship, the following competitions are taken into consideration: a] UEFA EURO 2008 (qualifying competition and final tournament) b] 2010 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) c] UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition) This is the system UEFA always use now: for both the qualifiers and the finals. And all teams involved know this before the tournament begins too. My apologies. I thought they'd used world rankings. That said there's nothing in there about play-offs and if I were Turkey I'd be arguing that this forms part of the qualifiers, not the final draw and that they should be seeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 My apologies. I thought they'd used world rankings. That said there's nothing in there about play-offs and if I were Turkey I'd be arguing that this forms part of the qualifiers, not the final draw and that they should be seeded. From page 13: 7.07 The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches. The four ties are determined by means of a draw. The four runners-up with the best position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph 1.2.2) are seeded for the draw. If any of the teams in question have the same coefficient, the criteria listed in paragraph 7.02 apply. The play-offs are played according to the knockout system, with each team playing each opponent twice, in home and away matches. The seeded teams play the return match at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boab Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Ask me again after the draw in early December. Keep some "small change" by,Shaun,in case England do the unthinkable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Keep some "small change" by,Shaun,in case England do the unthinkable! Heh - I was just thinking about our little wager earlier. I will; I fear it won't prove necessary, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boab Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Heh - I was just thinking about our little wager earlier. I will; I fear it won't prove necessary, though. I share your fears.When is the Rooney ban being sorted out,Shaun?This could have a big impact on England's progress,i feel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego10 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 From page 13: 7.07 The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches. The four ties are determined by means of a draw. The four runners-up with the best position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph 1.2.2) are seeded for the draw. If any of the teams in question have the same coefficient, the criteria listed in paragraph 7.02 apply. The play-offs are played according to the knockout system, with each team playing each opponent twice, in home and away matches. The seeded teams play the return match at home. I don't know whether to be impressed or pity you! I had only meant in the bit you posted but fair play for reading it to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 I share your fears.When is the Rooney ban being sorted out,Shaun?This could have a big impact on England's progress,i feel! In the next few days, I think. Though when he was sent off, my first thought - amid laughing at the latest fine mess we'd gotten ourselves into - was that he'd get at least a two game ban. I don't know whether to be impressed or pity you! I had only meant in the bit you posted but fair play for reading it to the end. Well - I was a research student for the best part of a decade, and have a reputation to maintain on here. But that information - freely available on the UEFA website - is apparently beyond World Soccer, who were giving out a bunch of erroneous information about the seedings last night; and Five Live, whose editor, presenter and pundits didn't have a clue. It's embarrassing actually. Just how difficult is it for people to do their jobs and browse read a document FFS? It's because I did that I started this thread last night; because I'd completely outdone myself, and done all the calculations before they were released by UEFA today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Merse Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 From page 13: 7.07 The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches. The four ties are determined by means of a draw. The four runners-up with the best position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph 1.2.2) are seeded for the draw. If any of the teams in question have the same coefficient, the criteria listed in paragraph 7.02 apply. The play-offs are played according to the knockout system, with each team playing each opponent twice, in home and away matches. The seeded teams play the return match at home. That really is a joke. They get an easier draw and also benefit from being at home second. I hate seedings in football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 That really is a joke. They get an easier draw and also benefit from being at home second. I hate seedings in football. Ireland are in the process of showing how to improve and start qualifying for things, though. Get into the play-offs; lose because of being unseeded; maintain your consistency; get seeded for the next set of play-offs. Softly softly, catchy monkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King of the North Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Looking at those seedings.... A group of Spain, Portugal and France could await England. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked-Glass Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Hope the Irish get stuffed, cheating feckers. Cheerfully joking about karma, yet when it happened to them they took it to parliament. Knobheads. disagree with you strongly. It was the irish that were cheated this time 2 years ago, and cheated badly. Would be great for Ireland to be there and take some of the media spot light off Engerland. They might even last longer than them As a scot, we should be supporting Wales, N Ireland and Rep Ireland so long as we aren't actually playing them obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DETTY29 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Hey - you never know. The ball is round and all that; and England do have previous for following up a shocking campaign (Euro 88, USA 94) with a surprising one (Italia 90, Euro 96). And surely this time, expectations can't be anything other than moderate - meaning the pressure on the players will be less for once. Unfortunately though, whereas the 1988-90 side was very good, this one is shocking. Unless we finally get ruthless and change the manager, a first round exit beckons. Last night, Simon Cox of Ireland took the ball down with the aid of his arm, and smacked it into the chest of the onrushing Armenian 'keeper, who was outside his area. The result? Red card for Armenia. At 11 v 11, there was every chance Armenia would've won, and Ireland would be out. It was every bit as bad and crucial a decision as that involving Henry in Paris - yet it's more or less been glossed over as just "a bit of a dodgy call". The one-eyed hypocrisy of football fans and the media never ceases to amaze me; and as a result, I too hope they get stuffed now. Sorry to disappoint Shaun but what I caught of the back end of Sunday Supplement and a bit of 5live tonight I think hopes are starting to rise already. I have to admit I haven't been listening intently so I've maybe picked up wrongly. On Sunday Supplement though, there was definite mention that now Hart is world class, it's a fantastic base to build on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott_jambo Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Regardless of seedings It is England's right to be in the final. It is their destiny and no johnny foreigner will stop them this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midloth_Iain Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Play-offs Seeded teams: Croatia, Portugal, Ireland, Czech Republic Unseeded teams: Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Estonia Fantastic chance for Ireland to reach their first major tournament in a decade - just as long as they avoid the Turks, who are potential semi-finalists next summer. Final stages Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia Pot 3: Greece, Sweden, Denmark Pot 4: France* *unless all of Croatia, Portugal and Ireland somehow fail to get through the play-offs, which is inconceivable. At present, the Croats are in pole position to join Pot 3 if they qualify. Leaving at least the possibility of two of the Big Three being paired together in the group stages - with resultant repercussions for the knock-out phase. I personally think Ireland need to draw Montenegro or Estonia to qualify. Bosnia or Turkey will turn them over I am praying Turkey are there, it will make my holiday next June a bit more fun (esp if England are in their group) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingantti1874 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 I hope Ireland get ******* horsed.. Player thieving *******s... **** them, **** the welsh, **** NI an **** England.. If we can't be there I don't want any of these bawbags having fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Sorry to disappoint Shaun but what I caught of the back end of Sunday Supplement and a bit of 5live tonight I think hopes are starting to rise already. I have to admit I haven't been listening intently so I've maybe picked up wrongly. On Sunday Supplement though, there was definite mention that now Hart is world class, it's a fantastic base to build on. I wasn't listening - and can only hope you did pick it up wrongly. I haven't been this downbeat about England since Euro 2000 - and have yet to meet any compatriot who thinks we're anything other than utter shite at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bighusref Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Let's be clear on this, was Lawson's last bold prediction that St Johnstone would be bottom or second bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Plissken Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Seeding for the play off, why?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Let's be clear on this, was Lawson's last bold prediction that St Johnstone would be bottom or second bottom? Christ. Your memory's as good as mine. Seeding for the play off, why?! So Yoofa can ensure all the big teams with big TV money get in, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bighusref Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Christ. Your memory's as good as mine. ... No response, I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Plissken Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 I see others made the point before me, I usually read threads before replying but reading that annoyed me enough to reply right away. I've often moaned about the seedings in club football, I can't stand the way the so-called big teams are protected to such an extent. Imagine if there were no seedings in any competition... sponsors would hate it but it would give the other teams a chance and it would be exciting to see someone different get in the latter stages instead of the usual teams. The big guns should be looking to win the thing outright so it shouldn't matter if they draw another big hitter early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaun.lawson Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 ... No response, I see. That's because you were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Marsh Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Ireland v Estonia Turkey v Croatia Bosnia v Portugal Czech Rep v Montenegro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Tolbooth Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Ireland v Estonia Turkey v Croatia Bosnia v Portugal Czech Rep v Montenegro That really is a dream draw for the Irish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Benoit Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I hope Ireland get ******* horsed.. Player thieving *******s... **** them, **** the welsh, **** NI an **** England.. If we can't be there I don't want any of these bawbags having fun Cheery guy aren't you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Benoit Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 That really is a dream draw for the Irish Certainly is, lucky *******s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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