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Probability Doesn't Exist in South Africa


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8 minutes ago, Smithee said:

If they were going to fix it, surely the last thing they would do is pick 6 consecutive numbers

You would think.  Criminals aren't known for being smart.  

 

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say that they thought about 1,2,3,4,5 and 6, but that would have appeared too dodgy.

 

 

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been here before

That sequence of numbers has the same chance as coming out as any other sequence of numbers.

 

Im sure I read that years ago.

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1 minute ago, been here before said:

That sequence of numbers has the same chance as coming out as any other sequence of numbers.

 

Im sure I read that years ago.

Yep, probability dictates that any combination of numbers is as likely as any other. 

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If you'd been putting the numbers 1-6 on our lottery since it started, you'd have spent £3350 and won a total of £370: The biggest win being £50 for 4 numbers (1,3,4,5) back in 2004.

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I worked in Cameron Toll Forbouys (spelled badly probably) when the lottery launched. 
 

At least 1 in 10 maybe even 1 in 5 some days picked 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 as their numbers.

 

Cant remember the exact figure but someone calculated that if those numbers came up each lottery winner would receive something like £340 as their share of the jackpot.

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A Mr Dave King, was quoted as saying, he would not be handing back his winnings, as it was his children's inheritance.

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2 hours ago, Vlad Magic said:

I worked in Cameron Toll Forbouys (spelled badly probably) when the lottery launched. 
 

At least 1 in 10 maybe even 1 in 5 some days picked 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 as their numbers.

 

Cant remember the exact figure but someone calculated that if those numbers came up each lottery winner would receive something like £340 as their share of the jackpot.

 

That's an interesting point, VM. The numbers selected may be random, but not the choices made by the participants. So to maximise your potential winnings you should be looking to choose a selection of numbers which is the least likely to be chosen by other people. The National Lottery did give us some hints: https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/18854631.national-lottery-reveal-popular-numbers-picked-players/

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1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

That's an interesting point, VM. The numbers selected may be random, but not the choices made by the participants. So to maximise your potential winnings you should be looking to choose a selection of numbers which is the least likely to be chosen by other people. The National Lottery did give us some hints: https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/18854631.national-lottery-reveal-popular-numbers-picked-players/


Correct.

 

If I recall correctly the most popular choices of numbers are 6 all below 31.

 

Basically that’s caused by people using various combinations of birthday days and months to end up with there choice.

 

This is me talking about the original 6 chosen numbers of lottery before it changed but statistically your jackpot winnings would be considerably higher by choosing a number or numbers higher than 31.

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1 minute ago, Swanny17 said:

Nah, I know the odds are the same but I’m not having it that this group of numbers were drawn legitimately.  


Don’t think of it like that?

 

I admit it looks unbelievable but the chances of this string of numbers coming out is the exact same chance of any string of numbers.

 

Let me put it this way.

 

Imagine the draw was 8, 12, 19, 22, 38 and 39?

 

Imagine you are 39 years old, your wife is 38 and you have 4 kids aged 8,12,19 and 22?

 

What are the chances of that!!!!

 

The same as it being 5,6,7,8,9 and 10 👍

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23 minutes ago, Swanny17 said:

Nah, I know the odds are the same but I’m not having it that this group of numbers were drawn legitimately.  

No danger.

 

They will declare it a mistake in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

 

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I liked this bit: "Another 79 ticketholders won 6,283 rand each for guessing the sequence from five up to nine but missing the PowerBall."

 

So those 79 people chose the numbers 5,6,7,8,9 but then didn't choose 10 as the powerball? :)

 

Maybe they all chose 4.

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I don't see why 5 6 7 8 9 and 10 is any more outrageous than 1 4 8 16 21 and 40. Same amount of picks from the same balls. Human skepticism is a curse. 

Edited by ri Alban
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8 hours ago, Swanny17 said:

Nah, I know the odds are the same but I’m not having it that this group of numbers were drawn legitimately.  

Do you think it's more likely that someone fixed it and went for consecutive numbers, attracting attention from across the planet?

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7 hours ago, ri Alban said:

I don't see why 5 6 7 8 9 and 10 is any more outrageous than 1 4 8 16 21 and 40. Same amount of picks from the same balls. Human skepticism is a curse. 

 

I'm not so sure it is.

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