aluminium production is going to sky rocket and UBIG will make a mint.

[Tazio]

Good news for Cuba

[Liberal Hibby]

China is reining in local aluminium production, having recently removed tax rebates on exports of most aluminium products. By 2009, China may be a net aluminium importer, according to Michael Widmer of investment bank Calyon.

 

Can you see what i am getting at ?

 

UBIG will be stronger this year and should be for the next few years.

 

If that's the case why has its banking arm sought emergency funds from the Lithuanian Central Bank?

 

The world's largest economy - the US - is very likely to go into recession due to the credit crunch and worldwide growth rates are shrinking as a result. Energy costs are soaring with oils at $100 a barrel - meaning those activities reliant on energy like aluminium smelting are facing huge cost increases.

 

That means reduced profit for aluminium producers - not increased profits as margins will be squeezed.

 

I think your sleep deprivation is affecting your judgement...

[neobis]

No i don't TBH.

 

China are using so much ALU that they are going to have to import 10 times as much as they can produce.

 

I think you would be quite surprised at the amount of ALU lines UBIG own, not to mention the energy companies / mining etc

 

The energy needed to produce ALU is huge.

 

 

 

UBIG expanding aluminium production chain

 

Ukio Banko Investicine Grupe is expanding

the infrastructure for the production of

aluminium in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In the second phase of the expansion, there

are plans to install one or a few more alumina

processing lines with an annual capacity of

at least 125,000 tons each. UBIG says it is

searching for partners for this project.

In developing a continuous aluminium

production process chain, UBIG is seeking

to diversify the risks and avoid negative

consequences in the event of unfavourable

conditions on any of the markets across the

production chain.

The continuous aluminium production

chain will increase added value and help the

company revitalise other industries, such as

bauxite mining, electric energy production

nas.

 

Vertybiniai Popieriai stock. The aim of the

deal is to merge the brokerages controlled by

and transportation, alumina production

and metal industry, Ukio Bankas

said.

 

TBH I think your judgement is being clouded with UBIG's current affiliation.

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree.

 

You have just posted something from UBIG; of course its going to be positive. Before Romanov had you even heard of UBIG as a global company etc

 

As I have previously said there are bigger and cheaper companies out there than UBIG that will easily win the contracts over UBIG.

 

If you are that confident then invest heavily into UBIG, under your mindset, you cannot lose.

 

Me ... I will stay well clear.

 

As said above I think your are slightly misguided due to UBIG's current affiliation.

 

That's me away to bed.

 

Goodnight.

[Mr Quagmire]

If that's the case why has its banking arm sought emergency funds from the Lithuanian Central Bank?

 

The world's largest economy - the US - is very likely to go into recession due to the credit crunch and worldwide growth rates are shrinking as a result. Energy costs are soaring with oils at $100 a barrel - meaning those activities reliant on energy like aluminium smelting are facing huge cost increases.

 

That means reduced profit for aluminium producers - not increased profits as margins will be squeezed.

 

I think your sleep deprivation is affecting your judgement...

 

 

I think your Hoboness is affecting your judgement ?

 

Why on earth would you run the smelting of ALU with barrels of Crude Oil ?

 

As for your "UKIO banking arm sought emergency funds from the Lithuanian Central Bank"

 

Where is your proof ? and if you have any maybe you can explain the ins and outs ? and also tell me exactly where UKIO is in terms of its Financial stature within the European and worldwide sectors ?

[Mr Quagmire]

TBH I think your judgement is being clouded with UBIG's current affiliation.

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree.

 

You have just posted something from UBIG; of course its going to be positive. Before Romanov had you even heard of UBIG as a global company etc

 

As I have previously said there are bigger and cheaper companies out there than UBIG that will easily win the contracts over UBIG.

 

If you are that confident then invest heavily into UBIG, under your mindset, you cannot lose.

 

Me ... I will stay well clear.

 

As said above I think your are slightly misguided due to UBIG's current affiliation.

 

That's me away to bed.

 

Goodnight.

 

I never said that there would not be competition within this market.

 

You can do the maths though.

[Mr Quagmire]

TBH I think your judgement is being clouded with UBIG's current affiliation.

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree.

 

You have just posted something from UBIG; of course its going to be positive. Before Romanov had you even heard of UBIG as a global company etc

 

As I have previously said there are bigger and cheaper companies out there than UBIG that will easily win the contracts over UBIG.

 

If you are that confident then invest heavily into UBIG, under your mindset, you cannot lose.

 

Me ... I will stay well clear.

 

As said above I think your are slightly misguided due to UBIG's current affiliation.

 

That's me away to bed.

 

Goodnight.

 

I am sorry but you don't know anything about UKIO, So why would you want to invest ?

 

You have said that there are bigger and cheaper ALU companies out there but you do not know how many ALU companies UBIG owns or indeed how many tons all its lines produce ? you don't even know what there costing is yet you claim that there are cheaper companies out there.

 

You do not know what energy is used to run there smelts and the cost and sustainability of this energy ?

 

You have missed the point of this thread, UBIG is not going to go bankrupt.

 

Metals, especially ALU will be very strong this year and thats all good for UBIG.

 

I am sorry but i will listen to Financial experts from all over the world before i listen to you .

 

 

I am off to bed now.

[scott_jambo]

I am sorry but you don't know anything about UKIO, So why would you want to invest ?

 

You have said that there are bigger and cheaper ALU companies out there but you do not know how many ALU companies UBIG owns or indeed how many tons all its lines produce ? you don't even know what there costing is yet you claim that there are cheaper companies out there.

 

You do not know what energy is used to run there smelts and the cost and sustainability of this energy ?

 

You have missed the point of this thread, UBIG is not going to go bankrupt.

 

Metals, especially ALU will be very strong this year and thats all good for UBIG.

 

I am sorry but i will listen to Financial experts from all over the world before i listen to you .

 

 

I am off to bed now.

 

I thought the point of this thread was that UBIG were going to make a mint. Which i took as their gross profits would increase dramatically, thanks to the ALU price sky rocketing.

[He Who Cannot Be Named]

A good attempt at creating a bit of positive news...

 

But what a load of nonsense Mack.

 

As Franco already mentioned, none of the transfer money recieved has been invested back into the squad, our own debt has increased to pay for the new stand. We will have to pay that money back. Vlad isnt going to just give us his money is he?

 

Vladimir Romanov is not a supporter of HMFC in the sense that he wants the team playing to its full potential.

 

Vladimir Romanov hopes the club can become self-sufficiant.

 

So.. how does demand for aluminium in China constitute good news for Hearts?

 

Honestly all this callin people Hobo's, 'you do the math' 'past your bedtime' nonsense...

 

Your makin a right ladyshape of yourself.

[boabyarsebiscuit]

If I had the time (and you'll note by how little I'm posting this week I'm busy at work) I really should track down some detailed info on UBIG's Metals Interests, particularly the smelter in Bosnia which I presume is the "crown jewels" in UBIG's commodity producing portfolio. Somebody also mentioned "energy" interests - anyone with any details please post a link.

 

If I'm an aluminium producer, and prices of my finished product are rising, that can be a good thing. But exactly how good depends on my order book, what I've sold "forward" at a fixed price for example, and many other factors I've gone over a couple of times before on the old KB (costs of production, hedging strategy, etc).

 

One thing about mrmack's OP. If I'm a white goods manufacturer in Shanghai and I know I'm going to need aluminium throughout 2009 as part of my production process, I can buy it forward now for around 2550 USD a ton. The guy expressing a view that Aluiminium is going to break 3000 USD a ton next year is doing simply that, expressing a view. As recently as yesterday, the market didn't take the same view. And the market knows about demand for metal in China and India (India another booming economy with great demand for "raw materials").

 

If UBIG want to speculate (or bet) on prices of aluminium (and betting prices will hit 3000 USD id simply that, a "bet") they don't need a smelter to do so. They just need to buy Put Options with a 3000 USD strike which will involve paying out money now with no guarantee of any return if the price doesn't hit 3000.

 

Sorry to rain on anybody's parade.

 

PS - Liberal Hibby's "doom 'n' gloom" view isn't necessarily right either.

[Coco]

If I had the time (and you'll note by how little I'm posting this week I'm busy at work) I really should track down some detailed info on UBIG's Metals Interests, particularly the smelter in Bosnia which I presume is the "crown jewels" in UBIG's commodity producing portfolio. Somebody also mentioned "energy" interests - anyone with any details please post a link.

 

If I'm an aluminium producer, and prices of my finished product are rising, that can be a good thing. But exactly how good depends on my order book, what I've sold "forward" at a fixed price for example, and many other factors I've gone over a couple of times before on the old KB (costs of production, hedging strategy, etc).

 

One thing about mrmack's OP. If I'm a white goods manufacturer in Shanghai and I know I'm going to need aluminium throughout 2009 as part of my production process, I can buy it forward now for around 2550 USD a ton. The guy expressing a view that Aluiminium is going to break 3000 USD a ton next year is doing simply that, expressing a view. As recently as yesterday, the market didn't take the same view. And the market knows about demand for metal in China and India (India another booming economy with great demand for "raw materials").

 

If UBIG want to speculate (or bet) on prices of aluminium (and betting prices will hit 3000 USD id simply that, a "bet") they don't need a smelter to do so. They just need to buy Put Options with a 3000 USD strike which will involve paying out money now with no guarantee of any return if the price doesn't hit 3000.

 

Sorry to rain on anybody's parade.

 

PS - Liberal Hibby's "doom 'n' gloom" view isn't necessarily right either.

 

Another relevant factor is UBIG's capital structure.

 

How do they fund their operations - is it all based on debt or do they have plenty equity? Are their debt costs rising significantly at the moment?

 

What about their plant - is it Soviet era and creaking (so low depreciation/high profit) at the moment - does it need to be replaced?

 

As you point out there are lots of operating/sales/hedging issues too.

 

It is too simplistic to say that a) the price of aluminium will rise so the profit at UBIG will rise. Many variables affect both these propositions - and there are the complexities on the links between the propositions.

[boabyarsebiscuit]

If UBIG want to speculate (or bet) on prices of aluminium (and betting prices will hit 3000 USD id simply that, a "bet") they don't need a smelter to do so.

My option example's wrong I just realised.

 

If I'm trading "uncovered" and want to bet on a price rise to 3000 or above I'd buy calls with a strike lower than 3000.

 

If I think the price will stay below the 3000 mark, I'd buy the puts.

[Romanov Stole My Pension]

I can see the headline...

 

HEARTS FOILED AGAIN!!

 

[Commander Harris]

If that's the case why has its banking arm sought emergency funds from the Lithuanian Central Bank?

 

The world's largest economy - the US - is very likely to go into recession due to the credit crunch and worldwide growth rates are shrinking as a result. Energy costs are soaring with oils at $100 a barrel - meaning those activities reliant on energy like aluminium smelting are facing huge cost increases.

 

That means reduced profit for aluminium producers - not increased profits as margins will be squeezed.

 

I think your sleep deprivation is affecting your judgement...

 

get your facts right - there was no seeking of emergency funds whatsoever. UKIO did take out a loan but that is common practice and in no way was it "emergency funds" - quite the opposite actually. Don't believe everything you read on hibs.net

[DikT.]

pardon my ignorance but is your point that if your local

chinese takeaway like mine,still uses aluminium trays

rather than the more enviromentally friendly decomposable

trays then we are in line for a sharp increase in the price of a ruby murray subsequently hearts taking a slice of the profits?

 

Franco, rather simplistic view, but one I can relate to. Bugger that, it is the Indian for me, oops wait a minute, they use foil as well. The chippy disnae though:dribble:

[Tommy Walker]

IMHO there are (at least) a couple of issues here.

 

Firstly, even if one part of Vlad's 'empire' does well it does not necessarily benefit Hearts, financially or otherwise.

 

Secondly, if people want to really get into this they should look at the banking side of Vlad's business - how is his bank and their affiliates coping with their derivatives exposure (if any of course) ?

 

Best

 

TW

[Mr Quagmire]

If I had the time (and you'll note by how little I'm posting this week I'm busy at work) I really should track down some detailed info on UBIG's Metals Interests, particularly the smelter in Bosnia which I presume is the "crown jewels" in UBIG's commodity producing portfolio. Somebody also mentioned "energy" interests - anyone with any details please post a link.

 

If I'm an aluminium producer, and prices of my finished product are rising, that can be a good thing. But exactly how good depends on my order book, what I've sold "forward" at a fixed price for example, and many other factors I've gone over a couple of times before on the old KB (costs of production, hedging strategy, etc).

 

One thing about mrmack's OP. If I'm a white goods manufacturer in Shanghai and I know I'm going to need aluminium throughout 2009 as part of my production process, I can buy it forward now for around 2550 USD a ton. The guy expressing a view that Aluiminium is going to break 3000 USD a ton next year is doing simply that, expressing a view. As recently as yesterday, the market didn't take the same view. And the market knows about demand for metal in China and India (India another booming economy with great demand for "raw materials").

 

If UBIG want to speculate (or bet) on prices of aluminium (and betting prices will hit 3000 USD id simply that, a "bet") they don't need a smelter to do so. They just need to buy Put Options with a 3000 USD strike which will involve paying out money now with no guarantee of any return if the price doesn't hit 3000.

 

Sorry to rain on anybody's parade.

 

PS - Liberal Hibby's "doom 'n' gloom" view isn't necessarily right either.

 

They don't just own a plant in Bosnia.

 

They own quite a few actually

[Mr Quagmire]

A good attempt at creating a bit of positive news...

 

But what a load of nonsense Mack.

 

As Franco already mentioned, none of the transfer money recieved has been invested back into the squad, our own debt has increased to pay for the new stand. We will have to pay that money back. Vlad isnt going to just give us his money is he?

 

Vladimir Romanov is not a supporter of HMFC in the sense that he wants the team playing to its full potential.

 

Vladimir Romanov hopes the club can become self-sufficiant.

 

So.. how does demand for aluminium in China constitute good news for Hearts?

 

Honestly all this callin people Hobo's, 'you do the math' 'past your bedtime' nonsense...

 

Your makin a right ladyshape of yourself.

 

Rubbish Mate.

You don't get it either.

[Mr Quagmire]

Another relevant factor is UBIG's capital structure.

 

How do they fund their operations - is it all based on debt or do they have plenty equity? Are their debt costs rising significantly at the moment?

 

What about their plant - is it Soviet era and creaking (so low depreciation/high profit) at the moment - does it need to be replaced?

 

As you point out there are lots of operating/sales/hedging issues too.

 

It is too simplistic to say that a) the price of aluminium will rise so the profit at UBIG will rise. Many variables affect both these propositions - and there are the complexities on the links between the propositions.

 

They have just built some new plants.

[trotter]

I think your Hoboness is affecting your judgement ?

 

Why on earth would you run the smelting of ALU with barrels of Crude Oil ?

 

As for your "UKIO banking arm sought emergency funds from the Lithuanian Central Bank"

 

Where is your proof ? and if you have any maybe you can explain the ins and outs ? and also tell me exactly where UKIO is in terms of its Financial stature within the European and worldwide sectors ?

 

Because the price of oil is pretty much the benchmark for the price of energy.

 

As you've stated the amount of energy required for the electrolysis of bauxite into aluminium is staggering. If you discount nuclear power, (assuming there is not a great deal of this in E. Europe - feel free to correct me on this), then there are three sources of fuel avavilable to produce electricity (coal/oil/gas). As the price of oil goes up, the cost of producing energy from that oil goes up. However, with an increase in price of oil, users will seek cheaper alternatives if they are able to use them. Therefore, the prices of coal and gas increase in accordance with the increased demand/decreased supply.

 

If that makes any sense anyway

[Mr Quagmire]

If I had the time (and you'll note by how little I'm posting this week I'm busy at work) I really should track down some detailed info on UBIG's Metals Interests, particularly the smelter in Bosnia which I presume is the "crown jewels" in UBIG's commodity producing portfolio. Somebody also mentioned "energy" interests - anyone with any details please post a link.

 

If I'm an aluminium producer, and prices of my finished product are rising, that can be a good thing. But exactly how good depends on my order book, what I've sold "forward" at a fixed price for example, and many other factors I've gone over a couple of times before on the old KB (costs of production, hedging strategy, etc).

 

One thing about mrmack's OP. If I'm a white goods manufacturer in Shanghai and I know I'm going to need aluminium throughout 2009 as part of my production process, I can buy it forward now for around 2550 USD a ton. The guy expressing a view that Aluiminium is going to break 3000 USD a ton next year is doing simply that, expressing a view. As recently as yesterday, the market didn't take the same view. And the market knows about demand for metal in China and India (India another booming economy with great demand for "raw materials").

 

If UBIG want to speculate (or bet) on prices of aluminium (and betting prices will hit 3000 USD id simply that, a "bet") they don't need a smelter to do so. They just need to buy Put Options with a 3000 USD strike which will involve paying out money now with no guarantee of any return if the price doesn't hit 3000.

 

Sorry to rain on anybody's parade.

 

PS - Liberal Hibby's "doom 'n' gloom" view isn't necessarily right either.

 

I think you should look at the bigger picture, your just talking about stocks.

 

I was only passing on information to show that UBIG is not indeed in the poo .

 

Thats all.

[Mr Quagmire]

Because the price of oil is pretty much the benchmark for the price of energy.

 

As you've stated the amount of energy required for the electrolysis of bauxite into aluminium is staggering. If you discount nuclear power, (assuming there is not a great deal of this in E. Europe - feel free to correct me on this), then there are three sources of fuel avavilable to produce electricity (coal/oil/gas). As the price of oil goes up, the cost of producing energy from that oil goes up. However, with an increase in price of oil, users will seek cheaper alternatives if they are able to use them. Therefore, the prices of coal and gas increase in accordance with the increased demand/decreased supply.

 

If that makes any sense anyway

 

Yes Coal in Eastern Europe is the option.

 

Part of the point i was making.

[Mr Quagmire]

A good attempt at creating a bit of positive news...

 

But what a load of nonsense Mack.

 

As Franco already mentioned, none of the transfer money recieved has been invested back into the squad, our own debt has increased to pay for the new stand. We will have to pay that money back. Vlad isnt going to just give us his money is he?

 

Vladimir Romanov is not a supporter of HMFC in the sense that he wants the team playing to its full potential.

 

Vladimir Romanov hopes the club can become self-sufficiant.

 

So.. how does demand for aluminium in China constitute good news for Hearts?

 

Honestly all this callin people Hobo's, 'you do the math' 'past your bedtime' nonsense...

 

Your makin a right ladyshape of yourself.

 

Jog On Hobo, Jog On.....

[Coco]

IMHO there are (at least) a couple of issues here.

 

Firstly, even if one part of Vlad's 'empire' does well it does not necessarily benefit Hearts, financially or otherwise.

 

Secondly, if people want to really get into this they should look at the banking side of Vlad's business - how is his bank and their affiliates coping with their derivatives exposure (if any of course) ?

 

Best

 

TW

 

Ukio Bankas share price is down by 40% since the all time high in July.

[Coco]

They have just built some new plants.

 

Then it is very possible that in the short term their profits will fall.

[Tommy Walker]

Ukio Bankas share price is down by 40% since the all time high in July.

 

Coco,

 

any idea why ?

 

following the sector ?

 

Best

 

TW

[Mr Quagmire]

Ukio Bankas share price is down by 40% since the all time high in July.

 

and UBIG ???

[Mr Quagmire]

Then it is very possible that in the short term their profits will fall.

 

A few years ago not last month.

[Coco]

Coco,

 

any idea why ?

 

following the sector ?

 

Best

 

TW

 

Much the same as most other banks across the world due to worries over credit crunch, bad debts, economic slowdown. I haven't seen anything specific to Ukio Bankas.

[Coco]

and UBIG ???

 

UBIG isn't quoted on a stock exchange.

 

I have no idea about what UBIG is worth as as said before I don't know what their assets are worth or what their assets are producing or what the debt equity structure of the business is.

[Mr Quagmire]

UBIG isn't quoted on a stock exchange.

 

I have no idea about what UBIG is worth as as said before I don't know what their assets are worth or what their assets are producing or what the debt equity structure of the business is.

 

So you don't even know what UBIG owns and what sectors it operates in then ?

[Coco]

So you don't even know what UBIG owns and what sectors it operates in then ?

 

I know what is on their website.

 

What is their capital structure? How much debt do they have? How much of that requires to be renewed? How much of their plant do they need to replace in the next few years? What agreements to buy their raw materials and energy do they have? What agreements to sell their product do they have? Are their workers wages rising? Is Rodney Romanov a good manager of the aluminium operations?

 

Will the opinions on the outlook for the metals markets you provided be right?

[Csaba's Broon Shoes]

Supply and demand

 

Buy low sell high

 

Can you buy an aluminium plant in Dobbies ? there's few bob to make

 

If i could add one to my portfolio my stock will roket

[boabyarsebiscuit]

Because the price of oil is pretty much the benchmark for the price of energy.

 

As you've stated the amount of energy required for the electrolysis of bauxite into aluminium is staggering. If you discount nuclear power, (assuming there is not a great deal of this in E. Europe - feel free to correct me on this), then there are three sources of fuel avavilable to produce electricity (coal/oil/gas). As the price of oil goes up, the cost of producing energy from that oil goes up. However, with an increase in price of oil, users will seek cheaper alternatives if they are able to use them. Therefore, the prices of coal and gas increase in accordance with the increased demand/decreased supply.

 

If that makes any sense anyway

On a previous thread I also asked anyone if they were familiar with the Power Generation setup in Bosnia. One option I didn't consider then is Hydro. They had the winter olympics once in Sarajevo so possibly they have Hydro generation in Bosnia. My strong suspicion is Coal-fired predominates. Someone can do the research if they want.

 

By the way - crude was trading well below 100 bucks yesterday, more like 90.

 

 

They don't just own a plant in Bosnia.

 

They own quite a few actually

That's why I said I'd need more information on UBIG's metals interests before making an informed judgement. However you don't know what their order book's like do you?

 

Yes Coal in Eastern Europe is the option.

 

Part of the point i was making.

See my comment on Hydro in Bosnia. And as Russia has massive reserves of natural gas I'd have thought Gas fired power stations also come into the equation.

 

I do happen to know quite a lot about this stuff - chances are I have worked with the un-named Deutsche source quoted in one of your cut and pastes from the financial pages.

 

Just as I commented on the "Ali price is xxxx - UBIG are going bust!!!" type threads, I've commented on your "Ali price is going to be xxxx - UBIG to buy Arjen Robben" type thread.

 

No agenda. Just trying to keep it sensible.

[Tommy Walker]

mrmack,

 

financial/commercial share analysis is not simple

 

supporting Hearts for me and a lot of people is emotional

 

we're hooked and that may not be 'logical'

 

that doesn't prevent people questioning your post

 

IMHO Vlad is more concerned about his exposure to derivatives than the aluminium price

 

yours in 'I hope I'm wrong...that he doesn't have a significant exposure to 'toxic waste'

 

TW

[Dirk Diggler]

5-2 Hearts. Jose Goncalves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oops, wrong thread. :D:D

[Jammy T]

WTF has this to do with Hearts?

[boabyarsebiscuit]

mrmack,

 

financial/commercial share analysis is not simple

 

supporting Hearts for me and a lot of people is emotional

 

we're hooked and that may not be 'logical'

 

that doesn't prevent people questioning your post

 

IMHO Vlad is more concerned about his exposure to derivatives than the aluminium price

 

yours in 'I hope I'm wrong...that he doesn't have a significant exposure to 'toxic waste'

 

TW

UBIG's derivative exposure, if managed in conjunction with it's underlying Commodity businesses, should not really be an issue. Derivatives should be used mainly for risk management purposes, ensuring UBIG makes known profit margins by locking in prices for production costs (energy, concentrates, whatever) and guaranteeing prices for manufactured goods (high grade ali seeing we seem to be focussing on the ali plant).

 

If UBIG has a speculative derivatives trading arm (and to my knowledge it doesn't) then impacts to the group's bottom line P&L will be more closely linked to UBIG's derivative portfolio's performance.

 

I need to step back - lots to do today.

 

Here it is in a nutshell.

 

Just because the Aluminium price falls (or Oil/Coal/Gas/Exchange Rate or whatever other benchmark) we shouldn't jump to the conclusion UBIG is going bust.

 

Just because the Aluminium price rises (etc) we shouldn't jump to the conclusion UBIG is going to buy out Microsoft, put heated seats in the new stand bogs, and sign Fernando Torres for Hearts.

 

And I'd suggest to any journo's / editors on here that doing a proper and informed piece on UBIG's business would actually get me buying your paper to read that article, even if it was in the Hibsman.

 

Got to go. Later dudes!

[Tommy Walker]

"UBIG's derivative exposure, if managed in conjunction with it's underlying Commodity businesses, should not really be an issue."

 

that sounds like Wall Street spin !

 

if you're going to make a statement like that why don't you put some numbers to it ?

 

Best

 

TW

[John Gentleman]

Boaby and I had a previous thread going on this one and I'll freely admit that his knowledge of base metals, futures etc. is an area in which he has great expertise, or, as they're now known, "SME's" (Subject Matter Experts).

 

Australia is the world's biggest bauxite producer (including sub. companies in Papua New Guinea). The second biggest, I believe, is Brazil.

 

As I see it, it all comes down to whether Vlad's smelter has a fixed priced contract(s) with the bauxite producers, whether he hedges or he buys on the "spot market". The same applies to his energy costs (enormous) for aluminium production. I'd be willing to take a bet that his energy is supplied via Russia through an anabranch of the "the great Siberian pipeline". Russia has learnt the principles of capitalism very quickly (cue the dispute with Ukraine) and will charge the going rate. They are ruthless (remind you of anyone?). Maybe that's why Rodney has been despatched to Bosnia to troubleshoot matters, hmmmmph . On the other side of the coin, has his smelter entered into long term, fixed priced contracts with the Chinese or Indians? It can all be distilled down to two crucial elements:

1) The price he pays for his inputs, and

2) The price he gets for his outputs.

 

If 1) exceeds 2), then his smelter is in strife.

If 2) exceeds 1), then no problem, except the profit margin - which may be very low. I doubt, given base metal prices, that it's high. Bigger aluminium producers than Vlad's "poke in the the toe" have downgraded their profit expectations in recent times.

 

It's basic capitalism, really: you have your input costs balanced against your output charges. The resulting difference is either profit or loss.

 

And what's this to do with HMFC? Just Google "butterfly effect".

 

I eagerly await Boaby's analysis of my doubtlesly flawed assertions.

 

BTW: The Americans call 'aluminium', 'alumina' - probably because they found the former too difficult to spell!

[boabyarsebiscuit]

I eagerly await Boaby's analysis of my doubtlesly flawed assertions.

Not at all John, well put.

 

BTW: The Americans call 'aluminium', 'alumina' - probably because they found the former too difficult to spell!

They actually call it "aluminum". Alumina is actually "aluminium oxide".

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_oxide

 

;-)

[Tasavallan]

Australia is the world's biggest bauxite producer (including sub. companies in Papua New Guinea). The second biggest, I believe, is Brazil.

Bosnia does not appear in the Top 10 of aluminium producers. Although I understand UBIG currently manage the 2 biggest bauxite mines in Bosnia (Boksit AD & Milici and Srebrenica AD).

 

[John S]

I thought that mr mack?s OP post and subsequent ones made sense. He has been challenged to confirm a range of financial and business performers in relation to UBIG, questions that I feel in some cases are posted to make the poster appear clever, however questions in truth that none of us really know the answers to.

 

Given the time (which I do not have and in truth would not be prepared to commit) I, or indeed any one of us could do some research in relation to the UBIG group, its position in the environment in which it exists, and the markets in which it operates. That type of research is however perhaps more appropriate to a MBA dissertation that a football discussion board.

 

My understanding of mr mack?s points is that there will be an increased (global) demand for aluminium, particularly in China, this will see the price of the product rise. Given UBIGs portfolio includes the production/selling of aluminium, it seems perfectly reasonable that UBIG (together with other stakeholders) will reap the benefits of the increased price of and demand for aluminium.

 

In simple terms, a strong UBIG, (and by association an even wealthier Vladimir Romanov) being a major stakeholder in Heart of Midlothian, football club will be good for us. I think that?s all mr mack is saying, although he has argued the point far better than I could.

[SUTOL]

Ukio Bankas share price is down by 40% since the all time high in July.

 

 

Ukio Bankas 3 year share price chart.

[tolcross lad]

I think the original poster did well to generate this debate.Without having any expertise in this field it seems to me that a growing market for aliminium is more positive than a big downturn for example.The more that UBIG is successful in its various sectors the more secure I personally feel about VRs long term plans for Hearts.

I realise it is a competitive market and its not straightforward.A good mate of mine is Icelandic and he has started working in the American Alcoa plant at Reydarfjordur in East Iceland.This plant is powered by Hydro electricity from Europes biggest dam recently built in Icelands Eastern Highlands.

I have been there and the scale of project is mindboggling huge.The bauxite is shipped in from Brazil,I believe.

Icelanders dont come cheap - Their average wage is more than twice ours and the plant is to employ around 500.However I suppose cheap energy and state of the art equipment compensates.

[Mysterion]

 

Ukio Bankas 3 year share price chart.

 

bit of a red herring IMO. share's have plummeted with the credit crunch.

 

some examples over last 6months -

 

barclays - was close to ?7.50, now ?4.50

hsbc - was ?9 now ?7.80

rbs - ?6.50 now ?3.85

 

this drop isn't unique to UKIO although should have invested in HSBC - they've done alright lately!

[John S]

 

Ukio Bankas 3 year share price chart.

 

Ukio Bankas share price may well have fallen by 40% since the July high, however you cannot look at that in isolation. Such a drop may well be indicative of falls in share prices across that market sector. What I'd be interested in knowing is how did UKIO perform over a similar period when compared to another similar bank?

 

The graph provided by SUTOL makes interesting reading. I guess it's down to the way you interpret it, you could say that between the middle and end of 2007 the UKIO share price fell significantly. Alternatively you could say that the graph shows that from January 2005, UKIO has enjoyed a spectacular rise in the value of its business.

 

The graph tells me it's the latter.

[Mysterion]

keep up JS - i've already posted that info !

[John S]

keep up JS - i've already posted that info !

 

Indeed - Great minds Scotty !

[John Gentleman]

Bosnia does not appear in the Top 10 of aluminium producers. Although I understand UBIG currently manage the 2 biggest bauxite mines in Bosnia (Boksit AD & Milici and Srebrenica AD).

 

 

Understandable mix-up here. I stated that Australia is the biggest bauxite source (the base metal), not the biggest aluminium producer. Australia has only one aluminium smelter, in the state of Victoria near Warrnambool (ALCAN).

 

It guzzles gas at a rate of knots and is a split ba' hair away from being decommisioned due to the diminishing gas supplies from the Southern Ocean offshore (not unlike the North Sea). In our 'Globalised World', ALCAN has to pay the going rate for their energy supply and, given that southern OZ is relatively "high-cost" for undersea extraction, the capitalists have crunched the numbers and are now targeting the huge Timor Sea natural gas basin for gas. Trouble is, to get gas from the Timor to Warrnambool would make the smelter uncompetitive on the world scene. They'd probably be better off building a new one close to Darwin (Australia is a huge continent; it takes 5 hours on a jet from Adelaide to say, Singapore, just to get out of Australian airspace).

[jambo_boy]

This is typical of the worlds metal market, it happens from time to time just to get the price up. Don't know much about the Ali market but increases have been muted for the general steels due to production & energy costs.

The prices do tend to fly up but can drop just as quick. Through personal experience the predictions have never been accurate and rarely achieved.