"Edinburgh Fights Back"

[Drew Busby !]

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Edinburgh-fights-back.5541009.jp

 

Local unemployment at 3.1%. Airport booming, hotel bookings holding up, conference and event income excellent, house prices steadying.

 

And anecdotally ... I'd say restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffe-shops etc ... all the usual places to pesh money against the wall, have also held up well this past year...against the prevailing wisdom that we're locked in a really nasty recession...could be worse than 1929 etc etc etc

 

Recession ? What recession ??

 

Thoughts !!!!

[Radioactive Mince]

I think we're all doomed and are gonna die.

 

Mince.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Edinburgh-fights-back.5541009.jp

 

Local unemployment at 3.1%. Airport booming, hotel bookings holding up, conference and event income excellent, house prices steadying.

 

And anecdotally ... I'd say restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffe-shops etc ... all the usual places to pesh money against the wall, have also held up well this past year...against the prevailing wisdom that we're locked in a really nasty recession...could be worse than 1929 etc etc etc

 

Recession ? What recession ??

 

Thoughts !!!!

 

Edinburgh may be escaping the worst thanks to HMG's nationalisation of RBS and HBoS. In the real world, these businesses would no longer exist!

 

The real problems come in 2010 with the risk of the sovereign debt downgrade.

[leginten]

In terms of tourism, things appear to have held up well. I had the misfortune to spend Sunday showing some friends from Germany around the city. I have never never seen as many people on the Royal Mile in my life. It was complete chaos.

The question is: how many of them will want to return to a city that is currently disfigured by roadworks and a truly colossal amount of litter (some of it Fringe/work-to-rule related, much of it ignorance-of-populace related) at any point of the future?

I think Edinburgh risks taking a kicking once other cities develop their festivals further (Manchester comes to mind as another UK city of note that is really starting to get its summer festival together).

The chief executive bod from the Chamber of Commerce put it very well in his article in the paper last week - fantastic cityscape, but just don't look down at the the streets.

[Boris]

In terms of tourism, things appear to have held up well. I had the misfortune to spend Sunday showing some friends from Germany around the city. I have never never seen as many people on the Royal Mile in my life. It was complete chaos.

The question is: how many of them will want to return to a city that is currently disfigured by roadworks and a truly colossal amount of litter (some of it Fringe/work-to-rule related, much of it ignorance-of-populace related) at any point of the future?

I think Edinburgh risks taking a kicking once other cities develop their festivals further (Manchester comes to mind as another UK city of note that is really starting to get its summer festival together).

The chief executive bod from the Chamber of Commerce put it very well in his article in the paper last week - fantastic cityscape, but just don't look down at the the streets.

 

Depends if these other festivals have the same draw as Edinburgh.

 

There are a few film festivals for example, but how many have the kudos of Cannes or Berlin?

 

I'm not saying Edinburgh should rest on its laurels but there is a possibility of Festival saturation so it may be harder for newer festivals to stay competitive when you have a proven market leader.

[Coco]

I wonder if the Council and TIE are going to reveal just how much over budget the tram line is.

 

The current cuts to services are nothing compared to what is going to happen once the Council/Lothian Buses start having to pay for the tram line.

 

As for Edinburgh, everything built since the Second World War has been a disaster - I have resigned myself to waiting until all the hideous developments of the past 10 years get knocked down, just as the 1960s monstrosity forebears have.

[leginten]

Depends if these other festivals have the same draw as Edinburgh.

 

There are a few film festivals for example, but how many have the kudos of Cannes or Berlin?

 

I'm not saying Edinburgh should rest on its laurels but there is a possibility of Festival saturation so it may be harder for newer festivals to stay competitive when you have a proven market leader.

 

I sometimes think Edinburgh overstates the case for the international reputation of its festivals. My friends from Germany, for example - highly educated, professional people - had never heard of the Edinburgh Festival and were astounded when I came out with the "biggest arts festival in the world" line. Mentioning Salzburg, Cannes, Biennale etc to them would not have elicited the same blank response.

That's why I think the current poor (physical) state of the city is a major factor. Would you recommend a festival trip to a city in which you're wading through crap? I agree with your point about saturation and market leaders - we are still the market leader in the UK, although that's not an unassailable position.

[Boris]

I sometimes think Edinburgh overstates the case for the international reputation of its festivals. My friends from Germany, for example - highly educated, professional people - had never heard of the Edinburgh Festival and were astounded when I came out with the "biggest arts festival in the world" line. Mentioning Salzburg, Cannes, Biennale etc to them would not have elicited the same blank response.

That's why I think the current poor (physical) state of the city is a major factor. Would you recommend a festival trip to a city in which you're wading through crap? I agree with your point about saturation and market leaders - we are still the market leader in the UK, although that's not an unassailable position.

 

True, but even given the publicity of Edinburgh's situation, ticket sales are up 21% Doesn't that kind of prove the allure of the Festival itself?

 

If it's still a bombsite next summer then I think we all have grounds for disapproval though.

[leginten]

True, but even given the publicity of Edinburgh's situation, ticket sales are up 21% Doesn't that kind of prove the allure of the Festival itself?

 

If it's still a bombsite next summer then I think we all have grounds for disapproval though.

 

Given that the Fringe ticketing operation fouled up completely last year, I'd be interested to know if that statistic is of the "damned lie" variety or genuinely reflects 21% higher sales.

 

I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here slightly. I always get slightly concerned when festival officials and local dignitaries hype up the festivals (self-praise is, after all, no praise) when they're taking place against a backdrop of, let's face it, squalor.

[Coco]

If it's still a bombsite next summer then I think we all have grounds for disapproval though.

 

Things will be worse next summer ... where are the Council going to find the hundreds of millions of pounds for their 'contribution' to the tram line - and the ongoing tens of millions of pounds of operating losses each year? Services will be cut.

[Boris]

Given that the Fringe ticketing operation fouled up completely last year, I'd be interested to know if that statistic is of the "damned lie" variety or genuinely reflects 21% higher sales.

 

I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here slightly. I always get slightly concerned when festival officials and local dignitaries hype up the festivals (self-praise is, after all, no praise) when they're taking place against a backdrop of, let's face it, squalor.

 

Things will be worse next summer ... where are the Council going to find the hundreds of millions of pounds for their 'contribution' to the tram line - and the ongoing tens of millions of pounds of operating losses each year? Services will be cut.

 

I used to visit Amsterdam every year and for about three years on the trot the area around the Reiksmuseum, Van Gogh Museum and the Stedlijk Art Gallery was dug up. Now they the museumplein which is ace.

 

 

I guess my point is these things take time.

 

As for Coco's point re the cost, I don't know. Time again will tell.

[Gorgiewave]

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Edinburgh-fights-back.5541009.jp

 

Local unemployment at 3.1%. Airport booming, hotel bookings holding up, conference and event income excellent, house prices steadying.

 

And anecdotally ... I'd say restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffe-shops etc ... all the usual places to pesh money against the wall, have also held up well this past year...against the prevailing wisdom that we're locked in a really nasty recession...could be worse than 1929 etc etc etc

 

Recession ? What recession ??

 

Thoughts !!!!

 

Over 11,000 season tickets sold.

[leginten]

I used to visit Amsterdam every year and for about three years on the trot the area around the Reiksmuseum, Van Gogh Museum and the Stedlijk Art Gallery was dug up. Now they the museumplein which is ace.

 

 

I guess my point is these things take time.

 

As for Coco's point re the cost, I don't know. Time again will tell.

 

Point taken. Then again, if parts of Amsterdam are in a mess for years on end, there's always the canals. And the naughty attractions. Berlin was the world's largest building site for years on end after 1989 but it coped because it's big enough to absorb disruption and offer plenty of other places to go.

 

People come to Edinburgh for the Old Town and the area around the Castle that includes Princes St. and the gardens. (They may also have a look at the New Town too.) If that small area is a perpetual pigsty and reverts to "gardy loo" times, the city will soon acquire a poor reputation. It's neither big enough nor does it have sufficient attractions of international calibre outside the immediate centre to cope with gaining a poor reputation.

[Coco]

Point taken. Then again, if parts of Amsterdam are in a mess for years on end, there's always the canals. And the naughty attractions. Berlin was the world's largest building site for years on end after 1989 but it coped because it's big enough to absorb disruption and offer plenty of other places to go.

 

People come to Edinburgh for the Old Town and the area around the Castle that includes Princes St. and the gardens. (They may also have a look at the New Town too.) If that small area is a perpetual pigsty and reverts to "gardy loo" times, the city will soon acquire a poor reputation. It's neither big enough nor does it have sufficient attractions of international calibre outside the immediate centre to cope with gaining a poor reputation.

 

That area will not be a problem in future.

 

The Council will continue to close streets off and pave over areas Tianemon Square style in central areas. The bin dispute will be over with private contractors taking the place of the bin men laid off.

 

And the tram line will run empty all day through it.

 

It is the less obvious areas which are going to bear the brunt of the Councils forthcoming cuts.

[Boris]

Point taken. Then again, if parts of Amsterdam are in a mess for years on end, there's always the canals. And the naughty attractions. Berlin was the world's largest building site for years on end after 1989 but it coped because it's big enough to absorb disruption and offer plenty of other places to go.

 

People come to Edinburgh for the Old Town and the area around the Castle that includes Princes St. and the gardens. (They may also have a look at the New Town too.) If that small area is a perpetual pigsty and reverts to "gardy loo" times, the city will soon acquire a poor reputation. It's neither big enough nor does it have sufficient attractions of international calibre outside the immediate centre to cope with gaining a poor reputation.

 

Correct, but people are also coming, at the moment anyway, for the Festival and not general tourism.

 

Anyway, your point re perpetual pigsty is a valid one. Something the traders on South Bridge onwards to Minto Street could have a think about!

 

It is a shame Princes Street is a mess, but the Gardens are unaffected and once in there it is easy to forget the hubub at street level (with or without roadworks/trams).

 

I suppose we have to wait and see what international reaction is to the state of Edinburgh before getting unduly concerned.

[jambos are go!]

The Doom and gloom merchants talk everything down as always. The recession was unmanageable and going to last a generation. House prices would fall till you could buy a bungalow for the price of a packet of crisps. The VAT cut was useless and would not help retail sales. The Car Scrappage Scheme was a gimmick that the Motor Trade would mock. The banks would take decades to repay their debts and we would never have any hope of selling them back to the private sector.

 

I would use 2 words to describe the doubters on here. Tories and Nats.

[Nelly Terraces]

I'm wedged up and having a right old lark.

 

Leave the recession to weegie peasants who call their sprog daughters Brandon.

[Boris]

I'm wedged up and having a right old lark.

 

Leave the recession to weegie peasants who call their sprog daughters Brandon.

 

To be fair Nelly, Brogan's folks have single handedly kept the Weege economy afloat for the last year or so!

[Drew Busby !]

The Doom and gloom merchants talk everything down as always. The recession was unmanageable and going to last a generation. House prices would fall till you could buy a bungalow for the price of a packet of crisps. The VAT cut was useless and would not help retail sales. The Car Scrappage Scheme was a gimmick that the Motor Trade would mock. The banks would take decades to repay their debts and we would never have any hope of selling them back to the private sector.

 

I would use 2 words to describe the doubters on here. Tories and Nats.

 

Eh...local conditions here in Embra are better than anticipated, no doubt about that. The majority of public sector/govt/NHS/uni jobs here are resiliant, and haven't been impacted.

 

The UK's major banks however ? I don't know about decades to pay the money back, but theres plainly no hurry for them to do so as they have the government and the population right where they want them...effectively as the lender of last resort, propping them up...."too big to fail".

 

Iain McWhirter absolutely nailed it in his article last Sunday, http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.2524527.0.the_house_always_wins_but_not_always_the_one_we_are_living_in.php

 

In our rush to prop up the banks to avoid short term calamity (...given the sums involved, thats largely worked) ... we have however wrecked public finances in the medium term to pay for it. If that works through to public-sector job-losses, pay-freezes and general tax-rises, THEN Embra could take a big hit in the next year or two. By that time Labour will be long gone and dumping the blame for part 2 of the recession - the public-sector crash - on the Tories.

 

As much as I like to see Edinburgh riding things out just now, we can be pretty sure the fat lady hasn't sung the second act yet...

[Snake Plissken]

Here's to being in the 3.1%

[jambos are go!]

Eh...local conditions here in Embra are better than anticipated, no doubt about that. The majority of public sector/govt/NHS/uni jobs here are resiliant, and haven't been impacted.

 

The UK's major banks however ? I don't know about decades to pay the money back, but theres plainly no hurry for them to do so as they have the government and the population right where they want them...effectively as the lender of last resort, propping them up...."too big to fail".

 

Iain McWhirter absolutely nailed it in his article last Sunday, http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.2524527.0.the_house_always_wins_but_not_always_the_one_we_are_living_in.php

 

In our rush to prop up the banks to avoid short term calamity (...given the sums involved, thats largely worked) ... we have however wrecked public finances in the medium term to pay for it. If that works through to public-sector job-losses, pay-freezes and general tax-rises, THEN Embra could take a big hit in the next year or two. By that time Labour will be long gone and dumping the blame for part 2 of the recession - the public-sector crash - on the Tories.

 

As much as I like to see Edinburgh riding things out just now, we can be pretty sure the fat lady hasn't sung the second act yet...

 

Can I give you a direct quote from the article 'All that has happened is that the banking crisis has been resolved'. He goes onto criticise the rescue package without offering an alternative as is the privelige of the press. Like you he thinks this will be a double dip recession and time will tell. I agree with some of what he said partcularly over house prices and bonuses. None of that was relevant to what I said. The banks are repaying their debts on the backs of savers and taxpayers and they will return to profit and be sellable not necesssaily forever nationalised. My main point I was trying to make was that many on here talk down the economy because they are agin Labour pure and simply and the readers have a right to know that IMO !!!

[Only a Game]

In the case of tourism it hasnt been nearly as bad a summer as expected. The strong Euro has helped, especially in July where most major hotels had an increase on 2008 occupancy. June was decent but no more than that and the Film Festival moving to June for the last two years has helped not only the hotels and other leisure businesses who normally benefit from it, but its also helped the Film Festival which was dying on its erse in August because of worldwide competition(touched on earlier)

 

On the down-side it is summer still and Edinburgh will always sell in summer even if its a little cheaper this year than in previous years to ensure the tourists kept coming. Its the winter (from October onwards) that is a massive worry for the major Edinburgh Hotels (two of which have gone into administration in the last 6 weeks, but are still trading, one of which has no chance of survival by all accounts) In winter most hotels depend on corporate business and the erse fell out of that market, 33% downwards, around the time of the banking collapses and hasnt recovered yet by even 1%. Businesses who used to send two or 3 people to a key meeting are now sending one, sometimes not sending them at all. Its hard to see them resuming that kind of level of corporate tourism now that they see it can be just as efficient to send less people here there and everywhere. Much of the spend on business tourism is now discredited as completely unneccesary expense. Until that market picks up again some hotels are going to find it very very tough going after September.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

Can I give you a direct quote from the article 'All that has happened is that the banking crisis has been resolved'. He goes onto criticise the rescue package without offering an alternative as is the privelige of the press. Like you he thinks this will be a double dip recession and time will tell. I agree with some of what he said partcularly over house prices and bonuses. None of that was relevant to what I said. The banks are repaying their debts on the backs of savers and taxpayers and they will return to profit and be sellable not necesssaily forever nationalised. My main point I was trying to make was that many on here talk down the economy because they are agin Labour pure and simply and the readers have a right to know that IMO !!!

 

I think the odds are pretty high on a double dip because the corollary doesn't stack up. That is, the banks had an asset price bubble that was financed on financial instruments no one understood. In actual fact though, if you turn these instruments into cash then things will be OK.

 

The problem the UK has is that the public finances are screwed and the Budget forecast was predicting 3.5% growth in 2011. Now, leaving aside anything else, in particular the fact that the City of London is the main growth engine for the UK economy, 3.5% is well above the long term trend of just over 2% growth. Anyone see where these boom conditions are going to come from when the public sector will HAVE to be cut severely, irrespective of who is in power?

 

My previous point holds true about the nationalisations. I also note that Resolution are apparently circling Lloyds for Clerical Medical and Scottish Widows as the removal of their capital requirements from the Lloyds balance sheet will help. What will happen to the UK life sector is the next question and the fact that they are major employers in Edinburgh. Already Standard have announced a 40% drop in profits and Aegon are expected to announce another loss this week.

 

I think Bill Jamieson is full of Alan Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance'.

[Phage]

Geoff's right ^^

 

Dump Drummond House / Gogarburn and all the RBS / HboS office workers onto the job market and you'd have some very serious problems right now. And we'd all be saying oh I wish it was 1929.

[jambos are go!]

I'll put forward a personal opinion about this recession. Its the first when the masses have decent income and personal wealth and the masses are just getting on with it and far from suicidal. They have enough financial room to cut back maybe for a while. Many will take early retirement and be happy not the rightly disgruntled unemployed. These are forces that were not so prevalent inprevious recessions. Just an opinion.

[269miles]

Unemployment in this area is running at 10.3 % Manufacturing at DAF & Rover has been devastated and is under serious threat at Jaguar and Land Rover.

 

Edinburgh is doing well because it is doing well out of job creation for civil servants/ govt related jobs. These people never lose their jobs in a recession.

[Coco]

That area will not be a problem in future.

 

The Council will continue to close streets off and pave over areas Tianemon Square style in central areas. The bin dispute will be over with private contractors taking the place of the bin men laid off.

 

And the tram line will run empty all day through it.

 

It is the less obvious areas which are going to bear the brunt of the Councils forthcoming cuts.

 

Well that didn't take long ...

 

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/latestnews/Princes-St-and-George-St.5545253.jp