Tram Update

[H2]

It seems to me that the Tram project is in complete dissary. Based on reports about a month ago the Contractors were looking for an extra ?80M, plus an eight week entension. They stopped work - so that would now look like a 12 week extension plus a whatever foure weeks costs on top of the ?80M.

 

Is it time to cut our losses. rather than waste a further ?500M on the probably ?100M already spent would it not be better for hands to be held up and say, ok we got it wrong now rather than looking at more dealys and more money.

 

Or are they going to cut the project back - if they are it will be of even less value to the proespective users than it already is.

 

What do you think?

 

Does anyone have any actual facts or is everything being concealed behind closed doors?

[andy1874hmfc]

I thought it was all going swimmingly and was on track to be finished on time?

[geddy]

Well done to Labour and the other parties for forcing this on a public that didn't want it.

Couldn't run a **** up in a brewery.

The parties that believe in the union!

Thank god they are running the country!

[JT's & Irons]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trams are cool and you'll all be glad when they're here. Role on 22nd century. Only Monorails are cooler.

[H2]

I thought it was all going swimmingly and was on track to be finished on time?

 

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trams are cool and you'll all be glad when they're here. Role on 22nd century. Only Monorails are cooler.

 

Are you Lyle Langley?

[speedbump]

Are you Lyle Langley?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3xGtjhZ_Yg

[N User]

We've had this discussion many a time.

 

Trams may well be cool - but for the cost, i'm yet to be convinced.

[Say What Again]

Could all taxi drivers please confirm/out themselves before posting on this thread.

 

It's all I ever hear from them - and have yet to hear anything remotley positive.

 

Some have tried to kid on they'd be all for it if it wasn't for reason.

[Brian Whittaker's Tache]

Trams in Nottingham (where I lived for 3 years) are brilliant. Fast, cheap, efficient and frequent

 

But Nottingham's a lot smaller than Edinburgh and they basically made the city centre a car free zone to get it to work.

 

People moan about the trams but car use in Edinburgh and it's surrounding areas is way out of control (My folks live in Bathgate and it takes an over an hour to get into Edinburgh in the rush hour of a morning.) When the privatised the buses out that way the bus from Bathgate, used to take in 3/4's of Livingston (dont know if it still does) driving people into their cars

 

There are too many buses in town too! (sit on the Western Approach east bound of an evening and see the empty buses queued up at the lights at Lothian Rd and the congestion they cause.) Bring back the City Sprinters!!

[Coco]

The Council/TIE tram line is hundreds of millions of pounds over budget and is years in delay. The so called business case is kaput with the Leith developments, Edinburgh Park developments, City Centre developments etc. all gone for a very long time.

 

However, the Council/TIE are not going to admit that FACT until they spend all of the money they have access to at the moment. They will then try to blackmail the Scottish Government for 'only a few hundred million' to complete the line.

 

The line will then provide its desired strategy of increasing congestion in Edinburgh. That will mean that the armies of consultants etc at TIE are required to provide a 'solution' for the 'congestion' ... and on and on

[Jamboy81]

Trams shmams. Cease this farce immediately.

[Boris]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trams are cool and you'll all be glad when they're here. Role on 22nd century. Only Monorails are cooler.

 

Hear, hear.

[Coco]

Hear, hear.

 

Boris do you think that spending at least ?600m and likely hundreds of millions of pounds more - as well as running operating losses in the tens of millions of pounds each year - is a better use of public funds than improving the social housing/schools/retirement homes etc. of Edinburgh?

[Optimus Prime]

Boris do you think that spending at least ?600m and likely hundreds of millions of pounds more - as well as running operating losses in the tens of millions of pounds each year - is a better use of public funds than improving the social housing/schools/retirement homes etc. of Edinburgh?

 

Can you show me your hard evidence please.

[Coco]

Can you show me your hard evidence please.

 

It is in the Business Case

[Optimus Prime]

It is in the Business Case

 

No it isn't.

[Guest juvehearts]

whats gonae happen to princes street when the festival comes? and the city swells to over a million people

[Coco]

No it isn't.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

Look i've been through all this before and i'm not prepared to waste my time doing it again. I've answered all the points on the thread below, please take some time to read through the points i've made before launching into another anti tram thread.

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=44709&highlight=tram

[Optimus Prime]

whats gonae happen to princes street when the festival comes? and the city swells to over a million people

 

Princes Street will reopen for the duration of the Festival and the New Year celebrations with construction works ceasing during this period.

[Coco]

http://www.edinburghtrams.com/include/uploads/story_so_far/JRC_Revenue_and_Risk_Report_Appendix_3.pdf

 

4.10 The ?Lower Planning Growth? scenario included the following changes from the

central case:

? With tram

Granton growth 25% of that in central case;

Leith growth phasing delayed by 5 years;

Edinburgh Park growth phasing delayed by 5 years;

No City Centre growth except schemes already being developed for specific

purposes;

General 5-year slippage in all other ambient growth;

Growth assumptions outside Edinburgh halved; and

Growth 2021-2031 set at 1%per annum instead of 2% per annum.

 

 

4.14 It can be seen that' date=' not only is the uplift in revenue expected with the introduction of the tram at very significant risk from the possibility of reduced planning growth, but also the overall level of TEL revenue, all of which is exposed to the risk of planning development shortfall. While nearly half of the ?7.5m million uplift in revenue planned to be generated by the tram by 2031 could be lost in this Lower Planning Scenario, the reduction in overall revenue that TEL might expect is around ?21m per year, relative to the Planning Reference Case.

 

4.16 While the Lower Planning Growth Scenario represents a significant shortfall in development take-up relative to the Planning Case, it probably does not reflect the full potential for growth shortfall should a general economic downturn be concurrent with the planning shortfall.[/quote']

 

Given the operational gearing of the trams - and the generally over optimistic nature of the 'business case' required to get this dogs breakfast into something that even the idiot councillors could vote for - it is clear that there will be operating losses of at least tens of millions of pounds. Add maintenance/replacement costs to that too.

[Ben Dover]

Princes Street will reopen for the duration of the Festival and the New Year celebrations with construction works ceasing during this period.

 

Sorry OP but that sounds like a council 'paste over' job ?

Will PS be 'back to normal' might be a better question to ask, as i can only imagine the street still being littered with road work 'bomb craters' ?

[djf]

Princes Street will reopen for the duration of the Festival and the New Year celebrations with construction works ceasing during this period.

 

Phew. Was worried bout those tourists for a moment.

[Optimus Prime]

http://www.edinburghtrams.com/include/uploads/story_so_far/JRC_Revenue_and_Risk_Report_Appendix_3.pdf

 

 

 

Given the operational gearing of the trams - and the generally over optimistic nature of the 'business case' required to get this dogs breakfast into something that even the idiot councillors could vote for - it is clear that there will be operating losses of at least tens of millions of pounds. Add maintenance/replacement costs to that too.

 

Edinburgh Tram Draft Final Business Case

 

Para 4.21

 

"The Draft Final Business Case forecasts that future tram revenues will exceed operational cost by the second year of operation and grow steadily through later years, resulting in significant supluses."

 

Para 5.1

 

The Edinburgh Tram Network will provide an essential catalyst for the continuing growth of the Edinburgh economy, facilitate the planned major expansions in the north and west of City and form the basis for future

developments. The development and procurement of the project under the

auspices of tie and TEL has allowed the formulation of a practical, integrated and viable bus and tram transport network which will serve the North, West and Centre of the city for many years to come.

 

Para 5.2

 

The Edinburgh Tram Network will be successful in reducing the demand for car

travel and will promote the environmental, safety and social objectives of the

Local Transport Strategy.

 

Can any Tram doubters please read the Executive Summary of the Business Case.

 

http://cpol.edinburgh.gov.uk/getdoc_ext.asp?DocId=92204

[Coco]

Edinburgh Tram Draft Final Business Case

 

Para 4.21

 

"The Draft Final Business Case forecasts that future tram revenues will exceed operational cost by the second year of operation and grow steadily through later years, resulting in significant supluses."

 

Para 5.1

 

The Edinburgh Tram Network will provide an essential catalyst for the continuing growth of the Edinburgh economy, facilitate the planned major expansions in the north and west of City and form the basis for future

developments. The development and procurement of the project under the

auspices of tie and TEL has allowed the formulation of a practical, integrated and viable bus and tram transport network which will serve the North, West and Centre of the city for many years to come.

 

Para 5.2

 

The Edinburgh Tram Network will be successful in reducing the demand for car

travel and will promote the environmental, safety and social objectives of the

Local Transport Strategy.

 

Can any Tram doubters please read the Executive Summary of the Business Case.

 

http://cpol.edinburgh.gov.uk/getdoc_ext.asp?DocId=92204

 

Are you really trying to say that the situation is closer to the planning case than the Lower Planning Growth Case as outlined in the business case section I quoted above?

 

Clearly you have not paid any attention to what has happened to the economic situation in Edinburgh recently. The Granton developments have already been mothballed, as have virtually all city centre developments. There will be retrenchment by financial service organisations and no growth in the North or West of the City. The Government organisations in Edinburgh are going to go into retrenchment. The fantasy passengers which were supposed to fulfil the dreams of tramspotters will never be there. If the tram line is built it will have operating losses of tens of millions of pounds per year - as per the business case section I quoted above.

[portobellojambo1]

Edinburgh Tram Draft Final Business Case

 

Para 4.21

 

"The Draft Final Business Case forecasts that future tram revenues will exceed operational cost by the second year of operation and grow steadily through later years, resulting in significant supluses."

 

Para 5.1

 

The Edinburgh Tram Network will provide an essential catalyst for the continuing growth of the Edinburgh economy, facilitate the planned major expansions in the north and west of City and form the basis for future

developments. The development and procurement of the project under the

auspices of tie and TEL has allowed the formulation of a practical, integrated and viable bus and tram transport network which will serve the North, West and Centre of the city for many years to come.

 

Para 5.2

 

The Edinburgh Tram Network will be successful in reducing the demand for car

travel and will promote the environmental, safety and social objectives of the

Local Transport Strategy.

 

Can any Tram doubters please read the Executive Summary of the Business Case.

 

http://cpol.edinburgh.gov.uk/getdoc_ext.asp?DocId=92204

 

 

In relation to the highlighted part above OP, can you explain to me how. At the moment the City of Edinburgh is reckoned to have one of the best, if not the best, public transport systems, based on buses, and a cross city rail link (which by all accounts has gone massively down in standard since the link to Newcraighall was changed from the Dunblane line to the Fife Circle, resulting in massive delays at Waverley). Still people use cars, why are these people who use cars at present going to stop using cars and start using a tram line from Leith to the airport. To me it is similar to those who say that if we build a new stand at Tynecastle the masses will come and fill it, life doesn't work like that. By withdrawing certain buses, or changing their routes to suit one bloody tram the result I would think is you are more liable to force more people to use cars.

[Optimus Prime]

Answered all this before, see below.

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=44709&highlight=tram

[Stuart Lyon]

OP people still don't believe you or the business case.

[Optimus Prime]

OP people still don't believe you or the business case.

 

Time will prove me correct, come and see me in 3 years.

[The Future's Maroon]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trams are cool and you'll all be glad when they're here. Role on 22nd century. Only Monorails are cooler.

Only when playing Rollercoaster Ty**** or Sim City 4.

 

The Trams project is something everyone will moan about....including me, BUT once its all finished and working the greetin will stop....until folk start demanding a decent service to all of Edinbugh Area's and not just this pish one line/route thats being built.

 

Too answer the original question tho, I think they should stop the farce....maybe in the future something can be done....but there is surely better things to be spending the money on in Edinburgh. The public transport system is actually pretty good - yes it has faults but overall I think its bloody fine compared to some cities I have been to!

[The Mighty Thor]

Answered all this before, see below.

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=44709&highlight=tram

 

We have indeed.

 

It's all based on ifs buts and maybes.

 

What we are working with is a cost that's yet to be finalised, to deliver an unquantifiable service to an unknown number of 'potential' customers which will apparently deliver the 'strategy objectives' of a small self intertest group. All for the princely sum of ?580 milliion (to use tram speak 'The lower end of the final cost price scale') It's a sure fire winner!

[Coco]

We have indeed.

 

It's all based on ifs buts and maybes.

 

What we are working with is a cost that's yet to be finalised, to deliver an unquantifiable service to an unknown number of 'potential' customers which will apparently deliver the 'strategy objectives' of a small self intertest group. All for the princely sum of ?580 milliion (to use tram speak 'The lower end of the final cost price scale') It's a sure fire winner!

 

There are a great many people who have their incomes riding on the progress of the tram line. Creates some incentives for it to happen no matter what the cost (for example of operating losses of 10% of all Council Tax in Edinburgh) ...

[Toxteth O'Grady]

How much will it cost to go from Town to the Airport by tram?

[Midloth_Iain]

O.Prime.

 

Can you tell me in what year I will be able to use a tram (any tram), to get me from my house in Gilmerton to my work in the New Town please ?

 

On the basis/assumption that you will correctly tell me I wont be able to, can you perhaps explain what improvements will be made to the remainder of the public transport network (ie : the areas the trams will not serve) ?

[Coco]

O.Prime.

 

Can you tell me in what year I will be able to use a tram (any tram), to get me from my house in Gilmerton to my work in the New Town please ?

 

On the basis/assumption that you will correctly tell me I wont be able to, can you perhaps explain what improvements will be made to the remainder of the public transport network (ie : the areas the trams will not serve) ?

 

There will be a reduction in the scale of the bus service in Edinburgh because the buses are going to be tasked with cross subsidising the tens of millions of pounds of losses on the tram line. There will be fewer routes, lower frequencies, older buses etc. than would otherwise be the case.

[Optimus Prime]

O.Prime.

 

Can you tell me in what year I will be able to use a tram (any tram), to get me from my house in Gilmerton to my work in the New Town please ?

 

On the basis/assumption that you will correctly tell me I wont be able to, can you perhaps explain what improvements will be made to the remainder of the public transport network (ie : the areas the trams will not serve) ?

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=44709&highlight=tram

 

Seek and you shall find the answer.

[Optimus Prime]

There will be a reduction in the scale of the bus service in Edinburgh because the buses are going to be tasked with cross subsidising the tens of millions of pounds of losses on the tram line. There will be fewer routes, lower frequencies, older buses etc. than would otherwise be the case.

 

Yawn..........

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=44709&highlight=tram

[Coco]

Yawn..........

 

http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/showthread.php?t=44709&highlight=tram

 

It would seem that you are either a tramspotter or work for TIE/Council.

 

Clearly you have either not read the Revenue and Risk section of the Business Case or have no understanding whatsoever of what is happening to the Edinburgh economy and Edinburgh Council's financial position.

[portobellojambo1]

It would seem that you are either a tramspotter or work for TIE/Council.

 

Clearly you have either not read the Revenue and Risk section of the Business Case or have no understanding whatsoever of what is happening to the Edinburgh economy and Edinburgh Council's financial position.

 

 

Had never given the former a thought, but never had any doubts about the latter. Only someone tied into this in some way could spout so much BS about the benefits of an extremely expensive single tram line, as if it is something the City of Edinburgh has been waiting on since the first brick was laid at Edinburgh Castle.

[JamboJay]

For all the naysayers on here I have a couple of questions .

1 What would you do, assuming no trams, about moving people about the city, not this year or even in the next two or three years but in the next five, ten or twenty years. Come on you must have some ideas.

 

2 What are you going to do about the Hubbert Peak (if you don?t know what it is, Google/Wikipedia are your friends)

 

3 There is no third question??just an observation. I live pretty much in the centre of the city, have a car (with parking permit) and a Ridacard, but in the middle future (5 ? 25 years away) petrol will be horribly expensive, there may be alternative sources of fuel, but I?m not aware of anything that might be a replacement on the horizon. I suppose we could all out and buy a Toyota Prius. I?ve deliberately kept this argument not from an environmental standpoint but from a declining resource aspect. I don?t think for one moment that the limited tram line is a panacea for Auld Reekie?s transport ill?s but it a step in the right direction, sticking your head in the sand is not.

 

 

That is all (no it probably isn't, Ho Hum!)

[Ben Dover]

What annoys me is that, YET AGAIN, the figures presented by the Council / Govt appear to be 1) way on the CONSERVATIVE side for costing and 2) way on the OPTIMISTIC side for the ultimate profitability of the scheme

[Stuart Lyon]

JamboJay - the south suburban railway being opened to passenger trains for around ?30 million would be a cheap option.

 

Open up the rat runs so cars don't cause congestion on main roads that increases pollution.

[JamboJay]

JamboJay - the south suburban railway being opened to passenger trains for around ?30 million would be a cheap option.

 

Open up the rat runs so cars don't cause congestion on main roads that increases pollution.

 

That's a very good idea I can't think of a good reason why it shouldn't be done, as well as the trams!!!!!

 

All the infrastructure/ tracks are still in place really just some refurb required, the only problem I think is at Waverley/Haymarket where they are getting toward the limit in train movements through the station, might wrong though.

 

All for 3-5% of the tram cost, but of course it doesn't go any where near the airport which think is one of the main reasons for the tram system.

[Geoff Kilpatrick]

That's a very good idea I can't think of a good reason why it shouldn't be done, as well as the trams!!!!!

All the infrastructure/ tracks are still in place really just some refurb required, the only problem I think is at Waverley/Haymarket where they are getting toward the limit in train movements through the station, might wrong though.

 

All for 3-5% of the tram cost, but of course it doesn't go any where near the airport which think is one of the main reasons for the tram system.

 

Ever heard of this thing called money?

 

Actually, the peak oil point you make is a good one. However, I don't necessarily think trams are part of the solution to that. The technology solution lies in people travelling less, meaning more people working from home, faster broadband connections, more video conferencing etc.

[Stuart Lyon]

GK the working from home thing is a great idea. I used to work for BT and they sell this as a concept to other employers (at least they used to) but more recently they have withdrawn this option for many of their own employees!

[Coco]

For all the naysayers on here I have a couple of questions .

1 What would you do, assuming no trams, about moving people about the city, not this year or even in the next two or three years but in the next five, ten or twenty years. Come on you must have some ideas.

 

2 What are you going to do about the Hubbert Peak (if you don?t know what it is, Google/Wikipedia are your friends)

 

3 There is no third question??just an observation. I live pretty much in the centre of the city, have a car (with parking permit) and a Ridacard, but in the middle future (5 ? 25 years away) petrol will be horribly expensive, there may be alternative sources of fuel, but I?m not aware of anything that might be a replacement on the horizon. I suppose we could all out and buy a Toyota Prius. I?ve deliberately kept this argument not from an environmental standpoint but from a declining resource aspect. I don?t think for one moment that the limited tram line is a panacea for Auld Reekie?s transport ill?s but it a step in the right direction, sticking your head in the sand is not.

 

 

That is all (no it probably isn't, Ho Hum!)

 

Tramspotters suggest that the only way to help with the sorts of issues you mention are to spend at least ?600m and accept operating losses of ?20m per year on putting a tram line on the streets. I don't accept that.

 

With regard to your point about long distance planning - it is only 40 years since a man first landed on the moon. The idea that tramspotters/council employees know what the structure of employment/economic activity will be in 25 years is laughable.

 

With regard to the Hubbert Peak - Edinburgh's use of tram will have no discernable effect whatsoever on the global use of oil or oil substitutes. In addition if oil prices rise hugely as a result of Hubbert's peak - the substitute sources of energy will see prices rocket too - making generation of energy for the tram line unsustainable.

[Optimus Prime]

Had never given the former a thought, but never had any doubts about the latter. Only someone tied into this in some way could spout so much BS about the benefits of an extremely expensive single tram line, as if it is something the City of Edinburgh has been waiting on since the first brick was laid at Edinburgh Castle.

 

It would seem that you are either a tramspotter or work for TIE/Council.

 

Clearly you have either not read the Revenue and Risk section of the Business Case or have no understanding whatsoever of what is happening to the Edinburgh economy and Edinburgh Council's financial position.

 

Wrong on both counts.

[portobellojambo1]

That's a very good idea I can't think of a good reason why it shouldn't be done, as well as the trams!!!!!

 

All the infrastructure/ tracks are still in place really just some refurb required, the only problem I think is at Waverley/Haymarket where they are getting toward the limit in train movements through the station, might wrong though.

 

All for 3-5% of the tram cost, but of course it doesn't go any where near the airport which think is one of the main reasons for the tram system.

 

And how many people, on a daily basis, do you expect to take the tram all the way to the airport. In your daily travels around Edinburgh do you hear a lot of people saying "cannot wait on this tram line opening so I can pop out to the airport".

 

Companies whose staff commute regularly for business make their own arrangements for getting those staff to the airport, any other businessmen, 90% of whom do not live on the projected tram route, make their own way to the airport, they are not going to change modes of transport to the tram, they already know how to get there quickly and efficiently.

 

There is already a bus which runs from Waverley Bridge to the airport, at Waverley Bridge those travelling into Edinburgh from the airport have an abundance of other travel means to reach their eventual destination. The airport and the citizens of Edinburgh have and will survive without a tram link to the airport, assuming of course the link is being built for the benefit of the citizens of Edinburgh.

 

(In relation to what you say re. Waverley you are probably right, Waverley is struggling, given its size and the fact there is no scope for expansion width wise. Similarly Edinburgh's streets are far too narrow for an additional layer of transport, which is what the tram line is, this is not a replacement means of transport this is additional to what we already have (only thing is some very successful bus routes will be removed or altered significantly to try and force people to use the tram)).

[Stuart Lyon]

Will the volume of airport bound passengers prevent Edinburgh's commuters from being able to use the Trams?