Jump to content

Super Tuesday


Ryan Gosling

Recommended Posts

Not watching it but i heard a few things on the radio the other day that all of America wanted to vote for their first Black president or wanted to vote for the first Woman president but they cant get both....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hillary is still expected to win... but it could be more about how close Obama gets to her as he's been picking up momentum in recent weeks. If he can spin it as a victory it could be enough to propel him ahead during the final voting rounds.

 

Either way, it's reasonably unlikely a definite winner will emerge for the Dems tonight. Unless Hillary totally trounces him.

 

The Republicans vote is pretty straight forward - all states are winner takes all, first past the post style i.e. if Romney wins a state 51 to McCain's 49%, he gets ALL of the delegates from that state (who then go to the Republican convention and vote for him... though that's pretty much a formality).

 

Dems is more complicated - some states work the same as the above, others, like California, can split delegates i.e. If Clinton wins Cali 51 to 49 she would get three delegates while Obama would still get two... so it's not as clear cut.*

 

Figures are illustrative only... I've feck all idea how many delegates each state has.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hillary is still expected to win... but it could be more about how close Obama gets to her as he's been picking up momentum in recent weeks. If he can spin it as a victory it could be enough to propel him ahead during the final voting rounds.

 

Either way, it's reasonably unlikely a definite winner will emerge for the Dems tonight. Unless Hillary totally trounces him.

 

The Republicans vote is pretty straight forward - all states are winner takes all, first past the post style i.e. if Romney wins a state 51 to McCain's 49%, he gets ALL of the delegates from that state (who then go to the Republican convention and vote for him... though that's pretty much a formality).

 

Dems is more complicated - some states work the same as the above, others, like California, can split delegates i.e. If Clinton wins Cali 51 to 49 she would get three delegates while Obama would still get two... so it's not as clear cut.*

 

Figures are illustrative only... I've feck all idea how many delegates each state has.

 

Not fogetting the 12 Super delegates the Dems have.

 

Exit polls are showing: Clinton 44% Obama 41%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CompleteIdiot

Hillary is a dumb Neocon on foreign policy. She's another one of these "What Israel wants us to do is our foreign policy" types.

 

I hope Obama gets the nomination.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's definately going to be close on the democratic side. Think McCain is favourite on the republican side. That Romney is soooooooooo boring! LOL!

 

Lynn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Becoming clear that McCain will win the Republican nomination, but the Democrat nomination is "too close to call" as they are so fond of saying over here.

 

Hard core Reps are crapping it, hence Huckabees small victories, but IMO McCain is very electable when compared to either Hillary or Obama.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CompleteIdiot
Becoming clear that McCain will win the Republican nomination, but the Democrat nomination is "too close to call" as they are so fond of saying over here.

 

Hard core Reps are crapping it, hence Huckabees small victories, but IMO McCain is very electable when compared to either Hillary or Obama.

 

I have respect for McCain. He isn't a dumb Republican though. He is the inverted Republican version of Joe Lieberman who is a full blown Zionazi that uses the Democrat tag.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Craig Gordons Gloves

I've been reading the papers now and again and watching the news most nights. In addition, there have been loads of adverts on the telly for both. Based on what ive read, heard and seen - Obama is actually a reasonably impressive and honest candidate. Unfortunately Clinton is the 'safer' choice and thats what will end up happening.

 

McCain will win the republican nomination - largely as the rest of them are so crap. Romney is dull and faceless, Huckabee has too much of the religious policies that americans are getting fed up with - as far as i can see.

 

Obama has hilary bent over at the moment in my state of minnesota - he is about 65% to 35% up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CompleteIdiot
I've been reading the papers now and again and watching the news most nights. In addition, there have been loads of adverts on the telly for both. Based on what ive read, heard and seen - Obama is actually a reasonably impressive and honest candidate. Unfortunately Clinton is the 'safer' choice and thats what will end up happening.

 

McCain will win the republican nomination - largely as the rest of them are so crap. Romney is dull and faceless, Huckabee has too much of the religious policies that americans are getting fed up with - as far as i can see.

 

Obama has hilary bent over at the moment in my state of minnesota - he is about 65% to 35% up.

 

CNN are projecting he has won.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have respect for McCain. He isn't a dumb Republican though. He is the inverted Republican version of Joe Lieberman who is a full blown Zionazi that uses the Democrat tag.

 

Have a read at his Wikipedia article:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_mccain

 

I like the fact that he fought military authority, but still fought in the war, suffered torture but refused early release. Gives him some credibility and dignity in my book.

 

And god knows they could do with someone like that after Dubya.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CompleteIdiot

That Hillary woman makes me want to puke. She is such a typical shallow lawyer American whoring herself on her husband's reputation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CompleteIdiot
Have a read at his Wikipedia article:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_mccain

 

I like the fact that he fought military authority, but still fought in the war, suffered torture but refused early release. Gives him some credibility and dignity in my book.

 

And god knows they could do with someone like that after Dubya.

 

He has already been rejected by Limbaugh and other Republofascists. I am not sure what he means in reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He has already been rejected by Limbaugh and other Republofascists. I am not sure what he means in reality.

 

This country is sick and tired of the neo cons. Limbaugh is no longer relevant.

 

As in the UK, Americans political views have been more and more polarised over the last 20 years. 8 years of the Bush dynasty spreading war and devastating the economy have finally put a stop to that, Republicans are moving toward the centre.

 

The only exception to this are the Christian evanglicals. But they're spluttering around, unable to find a suitably mental candidate. Huckabee is the best they've got, but he's completely unelectable.

 

Thrown in the inevitable refusal of the South to elect either a black man or a woman, and I can certainly see McCain winning both the nomination and the presidency.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More likely to get Bloomberg coming in as an independent if it the nomination goes to Clinton.

 

Not sure if he'd step in if McCain wins the Rep Nom though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha, fair enough.

 

Seriously though, I want to shake the shiiit out of every Democrat and independent who's voting for Hillary.

 

What's her experience? Watching? And not very closely judging by the soggy dress incident.

 

Her feminist credentials? Riding on her philandering husband's coattails and turning on the water works everytime she thinks the voters aren't quite seeing how badly she wants it.

 

I love the line about her 'reminding most men of their first wife'.

 

Hideous, hideous harpie.

 

Added to which, Obama's got the Republicans running scared... while they've got a solid chance of beating old mutton chops.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The interesting thing (for me) as a social experiment is to see how many will Democrats will go for a first time black nomination and how many will go for a first time female nomination.

 

Not having read loads on the two candidates, I am erring toward preferring Obama myself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I P Knightley
Seriously though, I want to shake the shiiit out of every Democrat and independent who's voting for Hillary.

 

What's her experience? Watching? And not very closely judging by the soggy dress incident.

 

Her feminist credentials? Riding on her philandering husband's coattails and turning on the water works everytime she thinks the voters aren't quite seeing how badly she wants it.

 

I love the line about her 'reminding most men of their first wife'.

 

Hideous, hideous harpie.

 

Added to which, Obama's got the Republicans running scared... while they've got a solid chance of beating old mutton chops.

 

Excellent appraisal. I can't stand the woman.

 

The whole process is obscene - having cost millions of dollars so far when, to me, the choice is obvious. A shallow 'harpie' vs a bloke who appears to have a bit of dignity.

 

I read a supposed joke that Obama might well have taken New York had he put an apostrophe after the O. Given the way things go over there, I think it might actually have made a small difference!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Either way the race between Obama & Clinton looks more like a presidential race and a democrat one.

 

George W Bush has made certain that never again will a white man be president of the US. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aye, if the Presidential race was between Obama and Clinton it would be down to the wire, though McCain has merits I'm unsure whether the voters would want another Rep in office so soon after George "I love guns and oil" W Bush.

 

Clinton thought she had the female vote tied up but with Oprah coming out and backing Obama recently quite a few are leaning towards him as are youth, and they're more active now when previously they wouldn't bother. She also thought she had strong support from the Latinos, and though she does Obama has quite a few after a decent campaign on the grounds that he is a minority too.

 

To me I'd rather see Obama in power, though Nostradamus (or the kooks who "translate" his quatrains anyway) see him as the possible 3rd Anti-Christ, he looks to have more ideas and a fresh approach as compared to Clinton.

 

McCain I don't know much about but by all accounts he sees both sides and is not so much pure Republican, which can only be a good thing.

 

A race between McCain and Obama would be my preferred option, and if so I'd say that would spell an end to Clinton ever running again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A race between McCain and Obama would be my preferred option, and if so I'd say that would spell an end to Clinton ever running again.[/QUOTE]

 

So would a swift punt to the front bottom and a beating with a baseball bat.

 

This is no time for pussy footing around (if you'll pardon the punnery).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the voice from above
Aye, if the Presidential race was between Obama and Clinton it would be down to the wire, though McCain has merits I'm unsure whether the voters would want another Rep in office so soon after George "I love guns and oil" W Bush.

 

Clinton thought she had the female vote tied up but with Oprah coming out and backing Obama recently quite a few are leaning towards him as are youth, and they're more active now when previously they wouldn't bother. She also thought she had strong support from the Latinos, and though she does Obama has quite a few after a decent campaign on the grounds that he is a minority too.

 

To me I'd rather see Obama in power, though Nostradamus (or the kooks who "translate" his quatrains anyway) see him as the possible 3rd Anti-Christ, he looks to have more ideas and a fresh approach as compared to Clinton.

 

McCain I don't know much about but by all accounts he sees both sides and is not so much pure Republican, which can only be a good thing.

 

A race between McCain and Obama would be my preferred option, and if so I'd say that would spell an end to Clinton ever running again.

 

wow there!!! what? 3rd anti-christ? that's a pretty harsh accusation to be launched against someone! do you know any further details behind their predictions? always find nostradamus to be worth a good laugh...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

wow there!!! what? 3rd anti-christ? that's a pretty harsh accusation to be launched against someone! do you know any further details behind their predictions? always find nostradamus to be worth a good laugh...

 

 

 

 

It depends how you read it, some say that it's Putin, and that I could believe as he's a mentalist, but for Obama it's down to his rise from nowt to power, his ethnic origin (ie directly descended from Africa) and skin colour. There are a few quatrains about the subject and hence different things can be read into different quatrains by those who profess to have the "3rd Eye" :D

 

Anti-Christ one being Napoleon and number two being Hitler in case ya didn't know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't get distracted by Hillary vs Obama - as soon as the primaries finish that race disappears. They're pretty much a oneness as far as US politics are concerned.

 

The real question is who the Rep candidate will be, and can Hillary/Obama beat him.

 

After being defeated by GB in the last Rep primary, McCain was approached to run as both a Democrat and an Independent - thats how far removed he is from the neo cons. Like I keep saying, the South will not vote for a black man or a woman, but they will vote for a white Republican. The rest of the country will be open, but with McCain much closer to the centre, he stands a better chance than either of the Dems, who will polarise voters wherever they go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The rest of the country will be open, but with McCain much closer to the centre, he stands a better chance than either of the Dems, who will polarise voters wherever they go.

 

I'm not seeing that - I agree re: McCain (though a lot of Republicans would have to hold their nose to vote for him) and I definitely think Clinton is a polarising figure - she's so hated by many that things would soon turn nasty.

 

But I fail to see what's polarising about Obama. Pretty much anybody that wouldn't vote for him on grounds of race (or because they've heard he's a Moooshlim) isn't going to be voting for a Democrat anyway. And even diehard Republicans are struggling to dislike him from what I've seen (he at least plays on America's 'greatness' which seems to strike a chord with them).

 

I've not even seen him get any serious gip over his stance on Iraq, as at least it's been relatively consistent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What bookies are offering the best odds of Jeb Bush, sneaking in and becoming the next president?

 

999/1 on betfair.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not seeing that - I agree re: McCain (though a lot of Republicans would have to hold their nose to vote for him) and I definitely think Clinton is a polarising figure - she's so hated by many that things would soon turn nasty.

 

But I fail to see what's polarising about Obama. Pretty much anybody that wouldn't vote for him on grounds of race (or because they've heard he's a Moooshlim) isn't going to be voting for a Democrat anyway. And even diehard Republicans are struggling to dislike him from what I've seen (he at least plays on America's 'greatness' which seems to strike a chord with them).

 

I've not even seen him get any serious gip over his stance on Iraq, as at least it's been relatively consistent.

 

It's not just race, although I genuinely believe you're underestimating the average americans capacity for racism. He's only been in the senate for 2 terms, and the only national race he's run is half a primary so he's had pretty much a free ride from the media and spin doctors until now.

 

Once they get a hold of him he'll be in real trouble. Everyone has skeletons in their closet, and you can bet the Republican character assassins already know what his are.

 

McCain has been in politics for 30 years, this is his second national race and he is very much a known quantity. Obama has to overcome both racial stigma and political inexperience, and I can't see that happening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not just race, although I genuinely believe you're underestimating the average americans capacity for racism. He's only been in the senate for 2 terms, and the only national race he's run is half a primary so he's had pretty much a free ride from the media and spin doctors until now.

 

Once they get a hold of him he'll be in real trouble. Everyone has skeletons in their closet, and you can bet the Republican character assassins already know what his are.

 

McCain has been in politics for 30 years, this is his second national race and he is very much a known quantity. Obama has to overcome both racial stigma and political inexperience, and I can't see that happening.

 

They'd have to be pretty big skeletons. He's up and front about his previous cocaine and other drug abuse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They'd have to be pretty big skeletons. He's up and front about his previous cocaine and other drug abuse.

 

True, but he was never really pushed on it, because the democrats wont damage their own candidates.

 

Look at what the Reps did to John Kerry in the last election, he went from war hero to coward in a matter of weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not just race, although I genuinely believe you're underestimating the average americans capacity for racism.

 

Quite possibly, the only place I've lived for a reasonable amount of time is Seattle... which is overwhelmingly liberal, relatively wealthy... and with a very small black population.

 

I still think the Republicans are more scared of Obama than Clinton though.

 

 

He's only been in the senate for 2 terms, and the only national race he's run is half a primary so he's had pretty much a free ride from the media and spin doctors until now.

 

Once they get a hold of him he'll be in real trouble. Everyone has skeletons in their closet, and you can bet the Republican character assassins already know what his are.

 

They way he's handled himself so far though, with both Clintons gunning for him, trying to make him play the race card etc. - and he's just risen above it. It's probably been one of his greatest strengths - on top of his ability to play himself as someone untainted by the same old fights of the last 16 years.

 

McCain has been in politics for 30 years, this is his second national race and he is very much a known quantity. Obama has to overcome both racial stigma and political inexperience, and I can't see that happening.

 

You might well be right, and whilst McCain is one of the only candidates (if not the only) who wants to continue to execute the Iraq war/insurgency whatever as it is now, this could bolster him as much as it harms him.

 

And I'm not convinced McCain would play very dirty against Obama.

 

Anyway, it's still wide open - I've had a bet running with my flatmate for over a year now on this (Me for Obama, him for Clinton, bet's void if a Republican wins it) and while I'd say my chances have improved, I'm not making any definite calls.

 

Apart from calling Clinton a harpie, obviously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quite possibly, the only place I've lived for a reasonable amount of time is Seattle... which is overwhelmingly liberal, relatively wealthy... and with a very small black population.

 

I still think the Republicans are more scared of Obama than Clinton though.

 

It's strange. I know many very middle class, wealthy Americans who believe that black people are entirely equal, but are somehow different. I just think electing a black man is one step beyond their perception of equal rights.

 

They way he's handled himself so far though, with both Clintons gunning for him, trying to make him play the race card etc. - and he's just risen above it. It's probably been one of his greatest strengths - on top of his ability to play himself as someone untainted by the same old fights of the last 16 years.

 

But he is playing the race card. He recently made a big speech from Martin Luther Kings church. Last year he made a well publicised trip to Kenya, his paternal homeland.

 

Difference is, he's the first black guy to play the race card in a positive manner. So far he's got away with that, and he may well continue to do so.

 

 

You might well be right, and whilst McCain is one of the only candidates (if not the only) who wants to continue to execute the Iraq war/insurgency whatever as it is now, this could bolster him as much as it harms him.

 

Iraq was surpassed as the number one issue in opinion polls by the economy late last year. Traditionally, the Republicans are seen as strong on the economy, but McCain is close enough to the centre to be distinguished from Bushs maniacal policies.

 

And I'm not convinced McCain would play very dirty against Obama.

 

Totally agree. It'll be interesting to see how much free reign the spin doctors will have.

 

Anyway, it's still wide open - I've had a bet running with my flatmate for over a year now on this (Me for Obama, him for Clinton, bet's void if a Republican wins it) and while I'd say my chances have improved, I'm not making any definite calls.

 

Apart from calling Clinton a harpie, obviously.

 

It's the first race that I can remember that's actually interesting and has interesting personalities participating. I'd have liked to have seen John Edwards do better, but that was unfortunately always unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CompleteIdiot
It's not just race, although I genuinely believe you're underestimating the average americans capacity for racism. He's only been in the senate for 2 terms, and the only national race he's run is half a primary so he's had pretty much a free ride from the media and spin doctors until now.

 

Once they get a hold of him he'll be in real trouble. Everyone has skeletons in their closet, and you can bet the Republican character assassins already know what his are.

 

McCain has been in politics for 30 years, this is his second national race and he is very much a known quantity. Obama has to overcome both racial stigma and political inexperience, and I can't see that happening.

 

What you are saying about Americans and race is very similar to the kind of arguments made about JFK's Catholicism in 1960.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html

 

Looks like Obama actually won on Tuesday.

 

Clinton's also got more 'super' delegates in her total - who might not turn out to be so 'sooper' for her as they can vote for who they like come the convention.

 

However, she's probably got more sway with the party machinery so it's still wide open.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dave, you mentioned earlier what experience Hilary Clinton had i.e. lack of.

 

What experience does Obama have? 3 years a Senator?

 

Genuine question.

 

What is interesting about all of this is the amount of interest and inclusion the US population have in it. Arguably a good advert for democracy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a blog post from Obama cheerleader, arch bummer, and Sunday Times columnist Andrew Sullivan, Boris.

 

It makes for a pretty good argument.

 

Perhaps the most telling critique of Obama, to my mind, is his lack of executive experience. (The same can be said for Clinton, of course, if you don't count the First Lady period, when she insists her husband was the president.) I asked him directly last year why a voter should back someone who has never run anything bigger than a legislative office. He responded by pointing to his nascent campaign. He observed out that he was up against the full Clinton establishment, all the chits she and her husband had acquired over the years, and the apparatus they had constructed within the party. He had to build a national campaign from scratch, raise money, staff an extremely complex electoral map, and make key decisions on spending and travel. He asked me to judge his executive skills by observing how he was managing a campaign.

 

By that standard, who isn't impressed? A first term senator - a black urban liberal - raised more money, and continues to raise much more money, than Senator Clinton. More to the point, the money he has raised has not come from the well-connected fat-cats who do things like donate to the Clinton library. His base is much wider, broader and internet-based than hers. It has many more small donors.

 

Now look at the strategy he laid out last year, as he explained it to me and others. Iowa was the key. If he didn't win Iowa, it was over. But if he could win Iowa, he would prove the principle that a black man could transcend the racial issue, helping in New Hampshire, and then also helping him peel off what was then majority black support for the Clintons in South Carolina. Then his strategy was meticulous organization - and you saw that in Iowa, as well as yesterday's caucus states. Everything he told me has been followed through. And the attention to detail - from the Alaska caucus to the Nevada cooks - has been striking.

 

Now consider the psychological and emotional challenges of this campaign. It has been brutal. It has included many highly emotional moments - and occasions when racism and sexism and all sorts of hot-button issues have emerged. Then there was the extraordinary spectacle of a former president and spouse bringing the full weight of the Democratic establishment and the full prestige of two terms in the White House to dismiss some of Obama's arguments as a "fairy tale" and frame him as another Jesse Jackson.

 

How did the candidates deal with this? The vastly more experienced and nerves-of-steel Clinton clearly went through some wild mood-swings. Obama gave an appearance at least of preternatural coolness under fire, a steady message that others came to mimic, and a level of oratory that still stuns this longtime debater. In the middle of this very hot zone, he exhibit a coolness and steeliness that is a mark of presidential timber. He played tough - but he didn't play nasty. Keeping the high road in a contest like this - without ever playing the race card or the victim card - is an achievement. Building a movement on top of that is more impressive still. So far, he has combined Romney's money with Clinton's organizational skills and Ron Paul's grass-roots enthusiasm. No other campaign has brought so many dimensions into play.

 

And he won Missouri.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a blog post from Obama cheerleader, arch bummer, and Sunday Times columnist Andrew Sullivan, Boris.

 

It makes for a pretty good argument.

 

 

It certainly does Dave.

 

I think he would be my preference out of the three, assuming it is a Clinton or Obama v McvCain Presidential election.

 

I'm sort of more for McCain than Clinton (which is a bizarre thing for me to say) but I guess when it all ends not that much will actually change, regardless of who wins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.



×
×
  • Create New...