Points Comparison

[EH11 2NL]

Wednesday nights 3 points are gonna be huge taking us about 05/06s line.  

[mr fox]

On 20/10/2025 at 16:32, daavojaay said:

I just can't see us falling apart under mcinnes. He won't let it happen. We might lose themodd game but i think that'll just get us back firing on all cylinders. Special season maybe once in a lifetime stuff happening with our amazing club 

It won’t happen 

3 to would still be acceptable but you never know 

[boag1874]

1 hour ago, EH11 2NL said:

Wednesday nights 3 points are gonna be huge taking us about 05/06s line.  

It would surpass it - we had 2 draws & 8 wins in the first 10 that season

[EH11 2NL]

5 minutes ago, boag1874 said:

It would surpass it - we had 2 draws & 8 wins in the first 10 that season

yeah the word about was meant to be "above". predictive text! 

[boag1874]

17 minutes ago, EH11 2NL said:

yeah the word about was meant to be "above". predictive text! 

Ahhh makes more sense!

[JJ93]

16 hours ago, Pingu said:

Updated!

Thanks!!

[Pingu]

Booooo! Need to get back to winning ways on Saturday. 

 

[Pingu]

Updated again! 

[whytebeard]

2 minutes ago, Pingu said:

Updated again! 

I love the comparison.

but realistically it needs to be a comparison of points gain of what the league winners had. 
pointless us comparing to a Naismith team 

[Armageddon]

55 minutes ago, Pingu said:

Updated again! 

So 4 games until he sacks Burley? 😬👀

[Phil D. Corners]

11 hours ago, Pingu said:

Updated again! 

I love this. 
 

Thanks for posting. ♥️

[Nookie Bear]

The fact we are not including 1985-86 is exactly why older supporters like myself are keeping well out of this kind of chat 

[TheBigO]

Great stuff this thread, well done @Pingu

 

Was doing some fag packet mafs the other day (I'm off ill just now hence spike in posts and time for fag packet mafs!)

 

All about ppg as the graph shows.  A loss here and there doesn't matter in a way, as long as you then go a wee run.  Everyone is playing different fixtures every week of varying difficulty.  We can draw or lose away at Ibrox or Pittodrie while Celtic win at home to Livvy but they still have Ibrox to come.  Ok bad examples as we won at Ibrox and Aberdeen are pony, but get the drift!!

 

current ppg	ppg rest of season	total points	Likely league position
2.63	2.63	100	1st
2.63	2.25	90	1st
2.63	2	83	1st/2nd
2.63	1.75	76.25	2nd/3rd
2.63	1.5	69	3rd

 

So essentially, we can drop to 2ppg and still be in with an (outside) shout imo.  tbh, I think 87/88 points required to win it for def - that's the sweet spot.  It'll need 2.18ppg to get there.

 

Point is, going to a 2ppg average, we can in a basic way lose every 3rd game.  Or win 7 in every 10. 

 

Can we win 7 in 10 for the rest of the season??????  THAT is the big questoin here.

 

What excites me about it on the graphs above is we've done that before for long periods with much worse teams.  Naismith in 23/24 did 2.13ppg from game 16 onwards.  That wins us the league.

 

Final point which is a bit more grounded.  Does ANYONE see us losing half our games?  In a basic way (ie draws could obv kill us) that's what it would take to drop below 70 points and almost definitely blow 2nd.

[Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine]

Thinking about it in terms of rounds of fixtures, we've just had 29 points for the first round. Assuming the 'title benchmark' you've got is 90 points, we would need to be on roughly 52 points after the next round to be on title pace.

 

So we need 23 points for the next round, which works out neatly to 7W 2D 2L. Not wanting to get too far ahead of myself, but that feels doable.

 

You also need to factor in that the last 5 games are against stronger teams.

 

If we were to look at in terms of "how many points would we need by the end of the 3 rounds of fixtures to realistically end up on the required 90, considering the strength of teams played post-split", lets say we expect 1 point from each of the old firm games, 2 from the rest of the games post-split. That would mean 8 points from the 5 post split games.

 

So we need 82 points by the end of the 3rd round of fixtures IMO. Which would mean 25/26 points from the next round of fixtures to stay on pace. I think if we're being realistic about winning the title, the aim for the next round of fixtures has to be 8 wins.

 

Bit of a dorky post but suppose this is the thread for it!

[Victor Meldrew]

7 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

Thinking about it in terms of rounds of fixtures, we've just had 29 points for the first round. Assuming the 'title benchmark' you've got is 90 points, we would need to be on roughly 52 points after the next round to be on title pace.

 

So we need 23 points for the next round, which works out neatly to 7W 2D 2L. Not wanting to get too far ahead of myself, but that feels doable.

 

You also need to factor in that the last 5 games are against stronger teams.

 

If we were to look at in terms of "how many points would we need by the end of the 3 rounds of fixtures to realistically end up on the required 90, considering the strength of teams played post-split", lets say we expect 1 point from each of the old firm games, 2 from the rest of the games post-split. That would mean 8 points from the 5 post split games.

 

So we need 82 points by the end of the 3rd round of fixtures IMO. Which would mean 25/26 points from the next round of fixtures to stay on pace. I think if we're being realistic about winning the title, the aim for the next round of fixtures has to be 8 wins.

 

Bit of a dorky post but suppose this is the thread for it!

Put that way, it really does sound doable. Of course, a lot depends on the results of the other teams - this season has been good for us because of the high number of draws that there have been.

[Pingu]

13 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

Great stuff this thread, well done @Pingu

 

Was doing some fag packet mafs the other day (I'm off ill just now hence spike in posts and time for fag packet mafs!)

 

All about ppg as the graph shows.  A loss here and there doesn't matter in a way, as long as you then go a wee run.  Everyone is playing different fixtures every week of varying difficulty.  We can draw or lose away at Ibrox or Pittodrie while Celtic win at home to Livvy but they still have Ibrox to come.  Ok bad examples as we won at Ibrox and Aberdeen are pony, but get the drift!!

 

current ppg	ppg rest of season	total points	Likely league position
2.63	2.63	100	1st
2.63	2.25	90	1st
2.63	2	83	1st/2nd
2.63	1.75	76.25	2nd/3rd
2.63	1.5	69	3rd

 

So essentially, we can drop to 2ppg and still be in with an (outside) shout imo.  tbh, I think 87/88 points required to win it for def - that's the sweet spot.  It'll need 2.18ppg to get there.

 

Point is, going to a 2ppg average, we can in a basic way lose every 3rd game.  Or win 7 in every 10. 

 

Can we win 7 in 10 for the rest of the season??????  THAT is the big questoin here.

 

What excites me about it on the graphs above is we've done that before for long periods with much worse teams.  Naismith in 23/24 did 2.13ppg from game 16 onwards.  That wins us the league.

 

Final point which is a bit more grounded.  Does ANYONE see us losing half our games?  In a basic way (ie draws could obv kill us) that's what it would take to drop below 70 points and almost definitely blow 2nd.

 

Good analysis! I've also played with various scenarios but keep coming back to the likelihood that we will have a bad run at some stage. I'm loving where we are right now, and everything about this team, our manager and the Tony Bloom revolution, but I don't believe we are ready to win the league...yet.

 

That said if, and it's a big if, Celtic and Rangers continue to struggle. If, for example, Celtic go into the split with less than 70 points on the board....well then you never know!

[TheBigO]

7 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

Thinking about it in terms of rounds of fixtures, we've just had 29 points for the first round. Assuming the 'title benchmark' you've got is 90 points, we would need to be on roughly 52 points after the next round to be on title pace.

 

So we need 23 points for the next round, which works out neatly to 7W 2D 2L. Not wanting to get too far ahead of myself, but that feels doable.

 

You also need to factor in that the last 5 games are against stronger teams.

 

If we were to look at in terms of "how many points would we need by the end of the 3 rounds of fixtures to realistically end up on the required 90, considering the strength of teams played post-split", lets say we expect 1 point from each of the old firm games, 2 from the rest of the games post-split. That would mean 8 points from the 5 post split games.

 

So we need 82 points by the end of the 3rd round of fixtures IMO. Which would mean 25/26 points from the next round of fixtures to stay on pace. I think if we're being realistic about winning the title, the aim for the next round of fixtures has to be 8 wins.

 

Bit of a dorky post but suppose this is the thread for it!

You do need to factor in post split, which will be particularly tough.  We'll likely have 3 away and 2 will be Celtic and Hibs (if they make top 6).

 

But you are right, as posted above, 7 wins in 10 does us, or to put it in our league terms, actually, 7 wins in the rounds of 11 does us.  Who are the 4 teams to beat us?  You think maybe a draw in those other 4 games, right?!

 

Also, worth noting this next 11 fixtures is much trickier imo than the 11 we just had.  Away at CP, ER and Pittodrie and games thick and fast in December.

 

Finally, our last 6 games before the split we dont play any of OF or Hibs.  So basically we have a 13 game period where we play Celtic, Rangers and Hibs twice each from Dec to mid-Feb.  That's the crunch in there.

[spacerjoe]

8 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

Thinking about it in terms of rounds of fixtures, we've just had 29 points for the first round. Assuming the 'title benchmark' you've got is 90 points, we would need to be on roughly 52 points after the next round to be on title pace.

 

So we need 23 points for the next round, which works out neatly to 7W 2D 2L. Not wanting to get too far ahead of myself, but that feels doable.

 

You also need to factor in that the last 5 games are against stronger teams.

 

If we were to look at in terms of "how many points would we need by the end of the 3 rounds of fixtures to realistically end up on the required 90, considering the strength of teams played post-split", lets say we expect 1 point from each of the old firm games, 2 from the rest of the games post-split. That would mean 8 points from the 5 post split games.

 

So we need 82 points by the end of the 3rd round of fixtures IMO. Which would mean 25/26 points from the next round of fixtures to stay on pace. I think if we're being realistic about winning the title, the aim for the next round of fixtures has to be 8 wins.

 

Bit of a dorky post but suppose this is the thread for it!

Our next round of fixtures is much harder though, I'd say. Celtic, Hibs, Aberdeen and Motherwell all away. Rangers may have their shit together a bit more.

 

Think we can afford to drop some more points this round, knowing we should have it easier again for the last post split round.

 

And with a couple more signings in Jan for the run in.

 

 

[chrisyboy7]

5 minutes ago, spacerjoe said:

Our next round of fixtures is much harder though, I'd say. Celtic, Hibs, Aberdeen and Motherwell all away. Rangers may have their shit together a bit more.

 

Think we can afford to drop some more points this round, knowing we should have it easier again for the last post split round.

 

And with a couple more signings in Jan for the run in.

 

 

We fear no team. We are so far from last seasons shambles that the other teams that now fear us.

 

Pump them all.

[Pingu]

31 minutes ago, Juho_Makela_Goal_Machine said:

Thinking about it in terms of rounds of fixtures, we've just had 29 points for the first round. Assuming the 'title benchmark' you've got is 90 points, we would need to be on roughly 52 points after the next round to be on title pace.

 

So we need 23 points for the next round, which works out neatly to 7W 2D 2L. Not wanting to get too far ahead of myself, but that feels doable.

 

You also need to factor in that the last 5 games are against stronger teams.

 

If we were to look at in terms of "how many points would we need by the end of the 3 rounds of fixtures to realistically end up on the required 90, considering the strength of teams played post-split", lets say we expect 1 point from each of the old firm games, 2 from the rest of the games post-split. That would mean 8 points from the 5 post split games.

 

So we need 82 points by the end of the 3rd round of fixtures IMO. Which would mean 25/26 points from the next round of fixtures to stay on pace. I think if we're being realistic about winning the title, the aim for the next round of fixtures has to be 8 wins.

 

Bit of a dorky post but suppose this is the thread for it!

 

Added an annotation (and legend at the bottom) to explain the title winning benchmark!

 

 

[JimmyCant]

26 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

You do need to factor in post split, which will be particularly tough.  We'll likely have 3 away and 2 will be Celtic and Hibs (if they make top 6).

 

But you are right, as posted above, 7 wins in 10 does us, or to put it in our league terms, actually, 7 wins in the rounds of 11 does us.  Who are the 4 teams to beat us?  You think maybe a draw in those other 4 games, right?!

 

Also, worth noting this next 11 fixtures is much trickier imo than the 11 we just had.  Away at CP, ER and Pittodrie and games thick and fast in December.

 

Finally, our last 6 games before the split we dont play any of OF or Hibs.  So basically we have a 13 game period where we play Celtic, Rangers and Hibs twice each from Dec to mid-Feb.  That's the crunch in there.

I think we have February 14th 2026 as the key date amongst our group of amateur analysts. If we’re top then the group have unanimously opined that we’ll be champions (that’s based on us still having a gap of 4 points or more though by Feb 14) It also relies on Celtic losing another 4 games by then (we can also lose 4 but draws will really start to hurt the analysis if Celtic get their act together)

Edited November 3, 2025 by JimmyCant

[Pingu]

47 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

Great stuff this thread, well done @Pingu

 

Was doing some fag packet mafs the other day (I'm off ill just now hence spike in posts and time for fag packet mafs!)

 

All about ppg as the graph shows.  A loss here and there doesn't matter in a way, as long as you then go a wee run.  Everyone is playing different fixtures every week of varying difficulty.  We can draw or lose away at Ibrox or Pittodrie while Celtic win at home to Livvy but they still have Ibrox to come.  Ok bad examples as we won at Ibrox and Aberdeen are pony, but get the drift!!

 

current ppg	ppg rest of season	total points	Likely league position
2.63	2.63	100	1st
2.63	2.25	90	1st
2.63	2	83	1st/2nd
2.63	1.75	76.25	2nd/3rd
2.63	1.5	69	3rd

 

So essentially, we can drop to 2ppg and still be in with an (outside) shout imo.  tbh, I think 87/88 points required to win it for def - that's the sweet spot.  It'll need 2.18ppg to get there.

 

Point is, going to a 2ppg average, we can in a basic way lose every 3rd game.  Or win 7 in every 10. 

 

Can we win 7 in 10 for the rest of the season??????  THAT is the big questoin here.

 

What excites me about it on the graphs above is we've done that before for long periods with much worse teams.  Naismith in 23/24 did 2.13ppg from game 16 onwards.  That wins us the league.

 

Final point which is a bit more grounded.  Does ANYONE see us losing half our games?  In a basic way (ie draws could obv kill us) that's what it would take to drop below 70 points and almost definitely blow 2nd.

 

Thinking about this some more.... Even if we drop to 20 points per round of 11 matches (6 win, 2 draws, 3 losses) - we'll have 69 points going into the split. Picking up 8-9 points after the split would give us a very good chance of second, which would still be a brilliant achievement.  Anyway.... one game at a time, feet on the ground, long way to go.. and all that!

[BRY]

1 hour ago, Nookie Bear said:

The fact we are not including 1985-86 is exactly why older supporters like myself are keeping well out of this kind of chat 

 

Not really comparable - only 2 points for a win in those days...

[TheBigO]

33 minutes ago, Pingu said:

 

Good analysis! I've also played with various scenarios but keep coming back to the likelihood that we will have a bad run at some stage. I'm loving where we are right now, and everything about this team, our manager and the Tony Bloom revolution, but I don't believe we are ready to win the league...yet.

 

That said if, and it's a big if, Celtic and Rangers continue to struggle. If, for example, Celtic go into the split with less than 70 points on the board....well then you never know!

Ta!  Totally agree here, we'll have a rough patch of some sort.  Maybe a 3 game spell or something and we'll need to react - the season will hinge on it.

 

I dont massively follow English football so this might be shaky memory... but I keep thinking back to Leicester.  Was there a point mid season they had a dip and everyone wrote them off? The same will happen to us - it'll be how we react.

[Bindy Badgy]

31 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

You do need to factor in post split, which will be particularly tough.  We'll likely have 3 away and 2 will be Celtic and Hibs (if they make top 6).

 

But you are right, as posted above, 7 wins in 10 does us, or to put it in our league terms, actually, 7 wins in the rounds of 11 does us.  Who are the 4 teams to beat us?  You think maybe a draw in those other 4 games, right?!

 

Also, worth noting this next 11 fixtures is much trickier imo than the 11 we just had.  Away at CP, ER and Pittodrie and games thick and fast in December.

 

Finally, our last 6 games before the split we dont play any of OF or Hibs.  So basically we have a 13 game period where we play Celtic, Rangers and Hibs twice each from Dec to mid-Feb.  That's the crunch in there.

 

Seems like we want St Mirren in the top 6 and Hibs in the bottom 6.

 

Celtic have played St Mirren at home so they're likely to play them away after the split. We all know how difficult that fixture can be.

 

Hibs would love to piss on our parade, but sealing the league there would be the stuff of legend.

[hughesie27]

Can't find the tweet now but a data analysis account done the numbers and came up with 88 points being 90% chance of title and 77 points 90% chance of 2nd.

Edited November 3, 2025 by hughesie27

[hughesie27]

Found it.

 

 

[Penrices left boot]

On 20/10/2025 at 09:21, RustyRightPeg said:

It’s just a staggering stat. Shows how bad it really was.

 

 

 

Do hibs not have more?

[hughesie27]

10 minutes ago, Penrices left boot said:

 

Do hibs not have more?

Up to Livi Hibs are on 52 for 2025. Hearts now on 64.

 

Edit. Actually they are only on 49. Could ted theire Livi Cup win by accident.

Edited November 3, 2025 by hughesie27

[RustyRightPeg]

4 minutes ago, Penrices left boot said:

 

Do hibs not have more?

I can’t remember the exact number but they were less than 50 at that point I’m sure.
 

That was 2 weeks ago now so even rosier for us. 

[Penrices left boot]

30 minutes ago, TheBigO said:

Ta!  Totally agree here, we'll have a rough patch of some sort.  Maybe a 3 game spell or something and we'll need to react - the season will hinge on it.

 

I dont massively follow English football so this might be shaky memory... but I keep thinking back to Leicester.  Was there a point mid season they had a dip and everyone wrote them off? The same will happen to us - it'll be how we react.

 

 

Our dip is relevant, will it be 2/3 games, 5 games of like Aberdeen 30 games!

Will it take us out the running?

 

However, imo for us to win the league celtic in particular can't go on a big daft winning run, like Leicester- they won the league with 81 points, that is very low. 2nd place was 71 points.

Leicester taken advantage of the bigger clubs all having  a wobble, we need celtic to do similar over the season.

 

Rangers we just need to beat at Tynecastle and they're done...

 

Celtic imo  need to hit a lower points total than normal for us to win the league.

That is key, we'll do what we do.

 

[Penrices left boot]

4 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Up to Livi Hibs are on 52 for 2025. Hearts now on 64.

 

3 minutes ago, RustyRightPeg said:

I can’t remember the exact number but they were less than 50 at that point I’m sure.
 

That was 2 weeks ago now so even rosier for us. 

[hughesie27]

Just now, Penrices left boot said:

 

Actually I counted their Livi Cup win as a league. Only 49.

[JJ93]

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 minute ago, JJ93 said:

What an Incredible  run of results when you see it like that 

Edited November 3, 2025 by JudyJudyJudy

[RustyRightPeg]

1 minute ago, JJ93 said:

Conceded a third of our goals in a wacky 60 minute spell too. 

[JamboCampbell]

Slightly off topic but has there been anyone thats shown what European journey looks like for finishing in the top 2 this season?

eg what rounds you start and likely outcome in terms of group football guarantees?

 

[gjcc]

11 minutes ago, JamboCampbell said:

Slightly off topic but has there been anyone thats shown what European journey looks like for finishing in the top 2 this season?

eg what rounds you start and likely outcome in terms of group football guarantees?

 

1st: Champions league playoff if 1st, drop to Europa League. 
2nd: Champions League Q2 (so 3 rounds needed to win for main competition). No guarantees of group stage in any of those competitions if we lose in each of the qualifiers. (CLQ2>ELQ3>ECPO)

[hughesie27]

1 minute ago, gjcc said:

1st: Champions league playoff if 1st, drop to Europa League. 
2nd: Champions League Q2 (so 3 rounds needed to win for main competition). No guarantees of group stage in any of those competitions if we lose in each of the qualifiers. (CLQ2>ELQ3>ECPO)

If 2nd you are Guarenteed 3 qualifiers though correct? 1 for each competition? 

[gjcc]

Just now, hughesie27 said:

If 2nd you are Guarenteed 3 qualifiers though correct? 1 for each competition? 

Yes. That’s the last part in brackets is worst case with 3 losses we’d be out completely.
 

Need to win one of those ties to guarantee a “group stage”

[I P Knightley]

2 hours ago, TheBigO said:

Great stuff this thread, well done @Pingu

 

Was doing some fag packet mafs the other day (I'm off ill just now hence spike in posts and time for fag packet mafs!)

 

All about ppg as the graph shows.  A loss here and there doesn't matter in a way, as long as you then go a wee run.  Everyone is playing different fixtures every week of varying difficulty.  We can draw or lose away at Ibrox or Pittodrie while Celtic win at home to Livvy but they still have Ibrox to come.  Ok bad examples as we won at Ibrox and Aberdeen are pony, but get the drift!!

 

current ppg	ppg rest of season	total points	Likely league position
2.63	2.63	100	1st
2.63	2.25	90	1st
2.63	2	83	1st/2nd
2.63	1.75	76.25	2nd/3rd
2.63	1.5	69	3rd

 

So essentially, we can drop to 2ppg and still be in with an (outside) shout imo.  tbh, I think 87/88 points required to win it for def - that's the sweet spot.  It'll need 2.18ppg to get there.

 

Point is, going to a 2ppg average, we can in a basic way lose every 3rd game.  Or win 7 in every 10. 

 

Can we win 7 in 10 for the rest of the season??????  THAT is the big questoin here.

 

What excites me about it on the graphs above is we've done that before for long periods with much worse teams.  Naismith in 23/24 did 2.13ppg from game 16 onwards.  That wins us the league.

 

Final point which is a bit more grounded.  Does ANYONE see us losing half our games?  In a basic way (ie draws could obv kill us) that's what it would take to drop below 70 points and almost definitely blow 2nd.

I like your analysis. The graph's good but doesn't give this insight. 

 

The requirement to win 7 in 10 (all else being equal) is useful to have an eye on. 

 

I spent the weekend with an old mate who, in years when I wasn't watching, became a Celtic supporter. He's not worried yet about losing the title but accepts that if Hearts still lead by a head come the end of January, he'll have to think about it. 

[D24]

All wishful thinking, but Captain Sensible said it best:

[hereford_hearts]

Since 3 points came in, only once, has the team on top of the league on Jan 1st, not been champions. 

So I'm looking at that date😉

[Jack Torrance]

3 minutes ago, hereford_hearts said:

Since 3 points came in, only once, has the team on top of the league on Jan 1st, not been champions. 

So I'm looking at that date😉

 

That'll do for me, cheers.

 

[loveofthegame]

All really interesting stuff, good thread.

 

In saying all that, I'm trying very hard to apply the one game at a time rule and it settles my mind - looking at runs of fixtures can add stress (Celtic (A), Rangers (H), Hibs (A) 3 on the spin in December, for example). One game at a time, see what our rivals do, go forward from there.

 

Great to be thinking about it from the top as opposed to the other end of the table this time last year though!!

[TheBigO]

2 hours ago, Penrices left boot said:

 

 

Our dip is relevant, will it be 2/3 games, 5 games of like Aberdeen 30 games!

Will it take us out the running?

 

However, imo for us to win the league celtic in particular can't go on a big daft winning run, like Leicester- they won the league with 81 points, that is very low. 2nd place was 71 points.

Leicester taken advantage of the bigger clubs all having  a wobble, we need celtic to do similar over the season.

 

Rangers we just need to beat at Tynecastle and they're done...

 

Celtic imo  need to hit a lower points total than normal for us to win the league.

That is key, we'll do what we do.

 

Largely agreed. Makes the head to heads so obviously important (if we stay the course).

 

Celtic get c. 90 points a season. Min 9 of those are from us! 

 

Im not predicting it but if we won at parkheid in Dec it would be seismic!

 

If - I'll keep saying if - we keep going those truly are 6 pointers, no matter how cliché and stomach churning that is to say.

[TheBigO]

1 hour ago, I P Knightley said:

I like your analysis. The graph's good but doesn't give this insight. 

 

The requirement to win 7 in 10 (all else being equal) is useful to have an eye on. 

 

I spent the weekend with an old mate who, in years when I wasn't watching, became a Celtic supporter. He's not worried yet about losing the title but accepts that if Hearts still lead by a head come the end of January, he'll have to think about it. 

Looking at fixtures, id change that to end Dec. Dont get me wrong, long long way to go, but if we get through our Dec fixture list top of the league... wow!

 

Then Chesny arrives....

 

If!!!

[Watt-Zeefuik]

3 hours ago, TheBigO said:

You do need to factor in post split, which will be particularly tough.  We'll likely have 3 away and 2 will be Celtic and Hibs (if they make top 6).

 

But you are right, as posted above, 7 wins in 10 does us, or to put it in our league terms, actually, 7 wins in the rounds of 11 does us.  Who are the 4 teams to beat us?  You think maybe a draw in those other 4 games, right?!

 

Also, worth noting this next 11 fixtures is much trickier imo than the 11 we just had.  Away at CP, ER and Pittodrie and games thick and fast in December.

 

Finally, our last 6 games before the split we dont play any of OF or Hibs.  So basically we have a 13 game period where we play Celtic, Rangers and Hibs twice each from Dec to mid-Feb.  That's the crunch in there.

 

3 hours ago, JimmyCant said:

I think we have February 14th 2026 as the key date amongst our group of amateur analysts. If we’re top then the group have unanimously opined that we’ll be champions (that’s based on us still having a gap of 4 points or more though by Feb 14) It also relies on Celtic losing another 4 games by then (we can also lose 4 but draws will really start to hurt the analysis if Celtic get their act together)

 

3 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Can't find the tweet now but a data analysis account done the numbers and came up with 88 points being 90% chance of title and 77 points 90% chance of 2nd.

 

Cheers for all of these. I tied myself into knots trying to sort out how to project expectations based on games against better teams and games against relegation candidates. But really the post-split is its own mini season and the best way is to predict over 33 games how to set ourselves up to contend.

 

If we get to 80 points or more by the split, we should be in fine position to contend for the title. That will mean we have to perform in those closing games against the OF and against three other reasonably good teams.But we have to do that anyway.

 

We're currently on 2.64 ppg. 51 points or 2.31 ppg for the next 22 games will get us to 80. That's a tough standard to keep—such as 15W6D1L—well above what we normally manage, but obviously we've overperformed so far. 

[JimmyCant]

26 minutes ago, Watt-Zeefuik said:

 

 

 

Cheers for all of these. I tied myself into knots trying to sort out how to project expectations based on games against better teams and games against relegation candidates. But really the post-split is its own mini season and the best way is to predict over 33 games how to set ourselves up to contend.

 

If we get to 80 points or more by the split, we should be in fine position to contend for the title. That will mean we have to perform in those closing games against the OF and against three other reasonably good teams.But we have to do that anyway.

 

We're currently on 2.64 ppg. 51 points or 2.31 ppg for the next 22 games will get us to 80. That's a tough standard to keep—such as 15W6D1L—well above what we normally manage, but obviously we've overperformed so far. 

I wouldn’t be able to sleep for 3 weeks if we go into the split and it’s close (where one win or loss either way can make or break it)

 

I was kinda hoping we’d have it wrapped up before then. Even needing just 4 points for the title with 5 games to play and I’m going to need to be medicated 

[nick_3892]

8 minutes ago, JimmyCant said:

I wouldn’t be able to sleep for 3 weeks if we go into the split and it’s close (where one win or loss either way can make or break it)

 

I was kinda hoping we’d have it wrapped up before then. Even needing just 4 points for the title with 5 games to play and I’m going to need to be medicated 

Please don’t. 😂😂 If this transpires I’ll end up with liver damage due to drinking a baths worth of whisky. 😂