Russia Invades Ukraine

[felix]

1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

Why did you think that?

It's on Wikipedia so could well be wrong.

Recall Putin saying as much to Oliver Stone, but he may have been talking about Russian support in Crimea.

[Cade]

Ukraine sounding confident of re-taking everything west of the Dniper.

They're trying to damage bridges over the river badly enough to prevent heavy Russian equipment coming over, but not so badly that it prevents humanitarian supply.

Not sure how successful they'll be with that.

Over 50 Russian ammo and supply dumps have been destroyed by the new western artillery pieces. These things may only be in Ukraine in small numbers so far but they're being used smartly.

 

Russia has reduces gas supply to Europe even more.

 

[OmiyaHearts]

Pretty sobering comment today from Dr Mike Martin (who's predicted just about everything Ukr related correctly so far) saying he sees no way a global war can be avoided.

 

You can read back on his timeline on twitter @threshedthought, if you want to check his previous analysis. Let's hope for once, he's got it wrong.

 

Prof Patrick Porter, who has also been very good at analysing, also mentioned he's become more pessimistic, saying there's no pathway to avoiding major war in Europe.

Edited July 28, 2022 by OmiyaHearts

[BlueRiver]

3 hours ago, OmiyaHearts said:

Pretty sobering comment today from Dr Mike Martin (who's predicted just about everything Ukr related correctly so far) saying he sees no way a global war can be avoided.

 

You can read back on his timeline on twitter @threshedthought, if you want to check his previous analysis. Let's hope for once, he's got it wrong.

 

Prof Patrick Porter, who has also been very good at analysing, also mentioned he's become more pessimistic, saying there's no pathway to avoiding major war in Europe.

This is based on? Russia will not attack NATO and there’s no way NATO will attack Russia. So what triggers this major escalation to war across Europe? 

[BlueRiver]

I would add checking Pat Porter’s Twitter feed I like his characterisation of Clement Atlee.

 

The left miss figures like that and have unfortunately ceded defence to the Tories and often look soft. 

[Cade]

Russia fires a barrage of missiles from inside Belarus, hitting seemingly random targets in northern Ukraine.

Lots of calls for stronger sanction on Belarus.

 

Ukrainian troops have reportedly formed a strong bridgehead over the Inhulets River as part of the Kherson counter-offensive.

[Callum231]

looks like US bought 17million acres of land in ukraine. awesome. the 'im not shocked' doctrine. 

[Cruyff]

Russian soldiers castrating Ukrainian pows now. Another to add to their 14,000 war crimes in 6 months.

 

They have also shelled and levelled a Prisoner of War camp in the Donbas killing many Ukrainian pows, then blaming Ukraine.

 

Russia also has 2.8 million Ukrainians in "filtration camps" inside Russia. 

 

History is repeating itself. That nation of orcs needs destroyed. We must do everything we can to make it happen.

 

 

[Ked]

34 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Russian soldiers castrating Ukrainian pows now. Another to add to their 14,000 war crimes in 6 months.

 

They have also shelled and levelled a Prisoner of War camp in the Donbas killing many Ukrainian pows, then blaming Ukraine.

 

Russia also has 2.8 million Ukrainians in "filtration camps" inside Russia. 

 

History is repeating itself. That nation of orcs needs destroyed. We must do everything we can to make it happen.

 

 

While I'm aware of Russias past I'm also aware that we have been manipulated by the media about atrocity.

And to describe Russia as a nation of orcs is chronic.

[Footballfirst]

1 minute ago, Ked said:

While I'm aware of Russias past I'm also aware that we have been manipulated by the media about atrocity.

And to describe Russia as a nation of orcs is chronic.

They have a weird way of attracting people to live there. "Winter is coming"

 

 

[Cruyff]

2 minutes ago, Ked said:

While I'm aware of Russias past I'm also aware that we have been manipulated by the media about atrocity.

And to describe Russia as a nation of orcs is chronic.

That post is chronic. If the hat fits. 

[Ked]

On 28/07/2022 at 07:47, OmiyaHearts said:

Pretty sobering comment today from Dr Mike Martin (who's predicted just about everything Ukr related correctly so far) saying he sees no way a global war can be avoided.

 

You can read back on his timeline on twitter @threshedthought, if you want to check his previous analysis. Let's hope for once, he's got it wrong.

 

Prof Patrick Porter, who has also been very good at analysing, also mentioned he's become more pessimistic, saying there's no pathway to avoiding major war in Europe.

The war will involve weakening European support.

The Russian regime are involved in attacks that are not conventional.

Different tactics of destabilising .

Much like the CIA use.

As Ulysses mentioned we the west don't have the resolve that the totalitarian regimes of China and Russia.

That may change but points to this conflict growing

[Ked]

3 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

They have a weird way of attracting people to live there. "Winter is coming"

 

 

There's a certain demograph that would appeal to.

 

[Mikey1874]

46 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Russian soldiers castrating Ukrainian pows now. Another to add to their 14,000 war crimes in 6 months.

 

They have also shelled and levelled a Prisoner of War camp in the Donbas killing many Ukrainian pows, then blaming Ukraine.

 

Russia also has 2.8 million Ukrainians in "filtration camps" inside Russia. 

 

History is repeating itself. That nation of orcs needs destroyed. We must do everything we can to make it happen.

 

 

 

These guys 

 

 

[Jeffros Furios]

54 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Russian soldiers castrating Ukrainian pows now. Another to add to their 14,000 war crimes in 6 months.

 

They have also shelled and levelled a Prisoner of War camp in the Donbas killing many Ukrainian pows, then blaming Ukraine.

 

Russia also has 2.8 million Ukrainians in "filtration camps" inside Russia. 

 

History is repeating itself. That nation of orcs needs destroyed. We must do everything we can to make it happen.

 

 

Aye there's a video of the Ukranian lad getting his  baws sliced off with a Stanley knife .

At least the rat involved has been named and is hopefully captured and tortured for weeks .

Some of these central asians in the Russian army seem extremely savage .

Reports of 40k dead Russians and hopefully when they start sending boys from Mosxow and St Petersburg to thier deaths they will be unable to hide it from the population.

I ****in hate them with a passion . 

[Cruyff]

6 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

These guys 

 

 

Horrendous. Hopefully they are at peace now.

[Mikey1874]

It's actually pretty normal Russian atrocities. 

 

There isn't any doubt about their cruelty. 

 

Still facing uncomfortable resistance and losses. 

[Cruyff]

Just now, Jeffros Furios said:

Aye there's a video of the Ukranian lad getting his  baws sliced off with a Stanley knife .

At least the rat involved has been named and is hopefully captured and tortured for weeks .

Some of these central asians in the Russian army seem extremely savage .

Reports of 40k dead Russians and hopefully when they start sending boys from Mosxow and St Petersburg to thier deaths they will be unable to hide it from the population.

I ****in hate them with a passion . 

Wasn't even a Stanley knife, it was a box cutter. 

 

Sick ****s. They've been doing this for a while, this was the first time they filmed it. That Somali Battalion, Chechens and Wagner Group are made up of the very worst of humanity. 

[Footballfirst]

25 minutes ago, Ked said:

There's a certain demograph that would appeal to.

 

The implied threat to the West is pretty clear. I'm pretty sure that Putin's recent visit to Iran was to ask them not to increase oil and gas production for the West's consumption this winter, similarly Biden's visit to Saudi to ask them to maximise production.

[Ked]

7 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The implied threat to the West is pretty clear. I'm pretty sure that Putin's recent visit to Iran was to ask them not to increase oil and gas production for the West's consumption this winter, similarly Biden's visit to Saudi to ask them to maximise production.

It's the current set up with infrastructure for European needs that's the killer

Russian belief is control Berlin and you control Europe.I don't want to sound conspiratorial but Brexit seems part of a long foreign policy from Russia.

 

[Mikey1874]

30 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The implied threat to the West is pretty clear. I'm pretty sure that Putin's recent visit to Iran was to ask them not to increase oil and gas production for the West's consumption this winter, similarly Biden's visit to Saudi to ask them to maximise production.

 

Despite some good PR the Russian economy is in deep shit. 

 

Admire their willingness to reduce gas revenues though. Either cutting supplies to Europe or selling to likes of India at a loss. 

[il Duce McTarkin]

47 minutes ago, Ked said:

I don't want to sound conspiratorial but Brexit seems part of a long foreign policy from Russia.

 

 

I wouldn't have thought that there is anything controversial about this view 

[Ked]

1 minute ago, Dirk McClaymore said:

 

I wouldn't have thought that there is anything controversial about this view 

I meant in so much as a long term strategy to get to the point we are at.

 

[RobboM]

39 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Despite some good PR the Russian economy is in deep shit. 

 

Admire their willingness to reduce gas revenues though. Either cutting supplies to Europe or selling to likes of India at a loss. 

... or not. Who the **** really knows

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe

[RobboM]

1 hour ago, Jeffros Furios said:

Aye there's a video of the Ukranian lad getting his  baws sliced off with a Stanley knife .

At least the rat involved has been named and is hopefully captured and tortured for weeks .

Some of these central asians in the Russian army seem extremely savage .

Reports of 40k dead Russians and hopefully when they start sending boys from Mosxow and St Petersburg to thier deaths they will be unable to hide it from the population.

I ****in hate them with a passion . 

Apparantly fatalities from the "special operation" receive a compensation payment and this is promoted to families as a bonus. Seriously. As in you lost your boy but you've won a car

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, RobboM said:

Apparantly fatalities from the "special operation" receive a compensation payment and this is promoted to families as a bonus. Seriously. As in you lost your boy but you've won a car

 

And they've turned it into a positive 

 

 

[RobboM]

8 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

And they've turned it into a positive 

 

 

FFS
I thought I was being facetious in charecterising it the way I did. Jeezo that's cold.

[Mikey1874]

23 minutes ago, RobboM said:

... or not. Who the **** really knows

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe

 

Deep down though most things are regressing. Plenty more detailed analysis you can find. Short term currency variations don't change that.

 

Though maybe when they get the chips back in the new burger outlets it will seem okay. 

[Cade]

Expert security analysts now reckon that the Russian army as a whole has lost between 40% and 50% of its effectiveness.

Not just the invasion force; the Russian land based military as a whole.

 

Just think about that.

The Mighty Russian Bear has been reduced to almost half of its fighting effectiveness in just 156 days.

Against an opponent that has, for the most part, equipment that's on a par with the Russian stuff.

 

Modern western weapons are starting to make their way to Ukraine and have already made a huge impact, especially in the south where a major counter-offensive is underway to retake everything west of the Dnieper river.

 

The Russian infantry are relying on chechen, somali and syrian militias and various mercenary groups, as well as press-ganged men from the occupied zones.

They've run out of high precision modern missiles and ammo and are falling back on ancient soviet-era stocks.

Having to scrounge around their allies for supplies and buy drones from Iran.

 

[Mikey1874]

The dynamic between Russian forces, the Wagner Group and the Chechens may be interesting.

 

It's too early but some saying the bombing/explosions of the jail was done by the Wagner Group maybe without direct Russian involvement. 

 

Not sure if that will be entirely welcome, though maybe all brutality is welcomed. 

 

A lot more to come on this. It's a major controversy and the Azov wives are getting close to the Russian mothers of dead soldiers in power and influence. Pressure as much on the Ukraine Government. 

[Sawdust Caesar]

20 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Deep down though most things are regressing. Plenty more detailed analysis you can find. Short term currency variations don't change that.

 

Though maybe when they get the chips back in the new burger outlets it will seem okay. 

You might find this article interesting.

 

Russia’s Economy Really Is Crumbling Under Sanctions (foreignpolicy.com)

 

 

[Cade]

The Rouble is only being kept so high by emergency and short-term measures imposed by the Russian central bank.

Essentially they're preventing any roubles being taken outside the country.

They can't keep it up forever.

[Unknown user]

2 hours ago, Ked said:

There's a certain demograph that would appeal to.

 

You don't think there's a subtext?

[Ked]

37 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

You don't think there's a subtext?

Yes.

That's what I alluded to.

[Mikey1874]

1 hour ago, Sawdust Caesar said:

Yo

u might find this article interesting.

 

Russia’s Economy Really Is Crumbling Under Sanctions (foreignpolicy.com)

 

 

 

Yes, thanks.

 

And for example Russia may not be able to build the new energy pipelines to Asia due to sanctions on key parts. 

 

Meanwhile new sanctions are being imposed every week. The benefit to researchers is Russia society means you can pay for a lot of 'secret' information quite easily. This article doesn't say if they did that. 

[Unknown user]

43 minutes ago, Ked said:

Yes.

That's what I alluded to.

I must have missed that

[JFK-1]

Researchers at Yale University say the Russian economy is suffering massive damage due to Western sanctions, despite Moscow downplaying the effect. The authors claim their work casts doubt on Moscow's claims that the economy remains robust and that the West is suffering more through "a war of economic attrition."

 

Yale's team of experts used consumer data and figures from Russia's international trade and shipping partners to measure economic activity five months after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine. "Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent," the team found.

 

 

[JFK-1]

Best in depth analysis of the current situation I have seen. This woman has some fascinating insights.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

An update on companies still operating in Russia 

 

 

[Ked]

17 hours ago, RobboM said:

Apparantly fatalities from the "special operation" receive a compensation payment and this is promoted to families as a bonus. Seriously. As in you lost your boy but you've won a car

Where as we would perhaps just give out a medal.

[RobboM]

18 hours ago, RobboM said:

... or not. Who the **** really knows

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe

for a rebuttal of the Simon Jenkins article criticsing the impact of sanctions
 

 

[Dawnrazor]

What's the situation with Putins health, a few weeks ago he had every physical and mental ailments known to man? 

[Cade]

Simon Jenkins is wrong about 99% of the time.

Every time the Grauniad is brave enough to open comments on one of his hack pieces, it's full of people ripping the pish out of him.

[Herbert.]

20 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

They have a weird way of attracting people to live there. "Winter is coming"

 

 

 

Looks awright there tbh. 

[Cruyff]

Simon Jenkins has written an article there to support his own bias based on absolutely nothing. He's totally ignored academic peer reviewed papers on the subject, written by actual experts and backed by actual research. **** knows how he hasn't been emptied. Embarrassing journalism. 

[periodictabledancer]

20 minutes ago, Cruyff said:

Simon Jenkins has written an article there to support his own bias based on absolutely nothing. He's totally ignored academic peer reviewed papers on the subject, written by actual experts and backed by actual research. **** knows how he hasn't been emptied. Embarrassing journalism. 

I saw the headline and just ignored it. 

Beyond embarrassing 

I read a large piece from a US group (non govt) that used various osint sources that paints a very different picture and suggests the Russian economy is collapsing and if the west can be strong enough for even a little longer the long term damage will be massive. 

 

 

 

Just seen JFK1s post - that's the document I meant. Some startling figures in there. 

Edited July 30, 2022 by periodictabledancer

[Herbert.]

24 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Indeed. Was about to book my flight, but Skyscanner only offering up multiple stopovers...

 

Pain in the arse that. Would be funny if Britain done a video like that, Ugly women, Carling, Obesity, expensive gas,electric and fuel, cancel culture etc...

[Cade]

Zelensky orders the mandatory civilian evacuation of the entire Donetsk region.

With Russia having run out of precision weapons, seemingly deliberately and indiscriminately shelling major civilian centres in the region and with a major counter offensive in the planning, Ukraine is clearing all the civilians out of the way.

A brave and bold move.

I'm sure that Russia will paint this as a victory. Others will see it as clearing the decks for serious fighting. Gloves off time.

 

 

[Doctor FinnBarr]

How is it all panning out now? Genuine question, haven't watched the news for several months now, don't buy newspapers and only get my news from about a 60 second clip on Absolute Classic Rock. TBH, it doesn't tell me a lot.

[A Boy Named Crow]

On 30/07/2022 at 01:42, Ked said:

There's a certain demograph that would appeal to.

 

It's like they wrote it to appeal specifically to one resident of Mar E Lago! 🤠