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Russia Invades Ukraine


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Thought this was quite an interesting piece by Andrew Neil. It would be great if it's an accurate picture for the next couple of decades and there is a coming together of the free world. Not so sure myself.

 

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il Duce McTarkin
15 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

I’ll take one from the team.  

 

:wattie:

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JudyJudyJudy
3 minutes ago, Dirk McClaymore said:

 

:wattie:

actually meant " for the team" a Freudian slip :) 

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7 hours ago, pablo said:

Thought this was quite an interesting piece by Andrew Neil. It would be great if it's an accurate picture for the next couple of decades and there is a coming together of the free world. Not so sure myself.

 

 

I think the future pattern will be a little more complicated.

 

It is true the West in military and maybe economic terms is broadly more united. NATO is strengthened and there is potential for a new economic order that replaces total free trade (and so Russian oil and gas). 

 

But more democratic? Not when one of the major allies and biggest practical supporters of Ukraine is Turkey who are doing a good job of destroying internal debate and dissent. And when Europe needs middle east oil and gas to wean itself off Russia.

 

Still lots of blurred lines and fudges.

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Jambo-Jimbo

Finnish President tells Putin in a phone call that's it's basically his fault Finland is wanting to join NATO, citing threats Putin made towards Finland last December and the invasion of Ukraine, which has changed the Finnish security outlook.

 

Can't argue with that, of course Lavroll will claim it's nothing to do with Russia, it's everybody else's fault, as per usual.

 

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Let’s hope Russia are handed a massive bill and made to pay it for the devastation and destruction they have done on Ukraine. The world needs to act as one to extract payment from them. Tariffs and taxes on all exports and imports from now on. 

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Shooter McGavin
2 hours ago, Imaman said:

Let’s hope Russia are handed a massive bill and made to pay it for the devastation and destruction they have done on Ukraine. The world needs to act as one to extract payment from them. Tariffs and taxes on all exports and imports from now on. 

I’d like to know the extent of the financial damage they’ve already inflicted upon themselves throughout this mess.

 

Although, it may take years to fully understand the extent of the damage.

 

And now with Finland and Sweden seemingly making moves towards joining Nato, if Putin were mad enough to launch attacks against those two, I wonder if they’d even be able to afford it.

 

The impression you get from the media is that they seem to be taking a bit of a bloody nose in Ukraine, and it looks like they don’t really know themselves how they get out of it.

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It's going to take YEARS for the Russians to rebuild their armed forces after this, whether they win or lose.

 

And all that while, NATO will be re-arming.

 

They're goosed. And they know it.

 

This is nothing but one last, desperate, pathetic hail-mary action aimed at showing the world that Russia is still a player on the global stage.

A defiant screaming tantrum on their way down the slide to regional power status and global irrelevance.

Afghanistan wasn't enough for them.

Now they face being humiliated in Europe too.

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Class of 75
13 hours ago, Cade said:

It's going to take YEARS for the Russians to rebuild their armed forces after this, whether they win or lose.

 

And all that while, NATO will be re-arming.

 

They're goosed. And they know it.

 

This is nothing but one last, desperate, pathetic hail-mary action aimed at showing the world that Russia is still a player on the global stage.

A defiant screaming tantrum on their way down the slide to regional power status and global irrelevance.

Afghanistan wasn't enough for them.

Now they face being humiliated in Europe too.

Hopefully. If you think about it, Russia have never actually won a war in modern times. Beaten in the Crimea, beaten by Japan in 1905, capitulated in WW1, almost defeated in WW2 where only the winter, poor German supply issues and the fact Hitler was fighting on 2 fronts saved them and then defeated in Afghanistan. I know that assessment of WW2 is over simplified and they lost 17 million people in defence of their country but without Allied help they would have fallen. Hopefully they fail again 

Edited by Class of 75
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Tommy Brown

Was woken up early this morning in Largo by this big bugger. I assume it must have taken off from Edinburgh. I lost track of it after it was heading over Denmark.

Screenshot_20220515-091643_Freedar Mobile.jpg

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2 hours ago, Class of 75 said:

Hopefully. If you think about it, Russia have never actually won a war in modern times. Beaten in the Crimea, beaten by Japan in 1905, capitulated in WW1, almost defeated in WW2 where only the winter, poor German supply issues and the fact Hitler was fighting on 2 fronts saved them and then defeated in Afghanistan. I know that assessment of WW2 is over simplified and they lost 17 million people in defence of their country but without Allied help they would have fallen. Hopefully they fail again 

The Russians may have been almost defeated in WWII but so were we. 

 

They won it just as much as the Brits, Yanks and French. 

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Maiden Gorgie
3 hours ago, Tommy Brown said:

Was woken up early this morning in Largo by this big bugger. I assume it must have taken off from Edinburgh. I lost track of it after it was heading over Denmark.

Screenshot_20220515-091643_Freedar Mobile.jpg

I was awake at around 4am and heard an aircraft that sounded, well, heavy duty

 

It had a kind of low rumble to it, said the aviation expert

Edited by Maiden Gorgie
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Unknown user
21 hours ago, Imaman said:

Let’s hope Russia are handed a massive bill and made to pay it for the devastation and destruction they have done on Ukraine. The world needs to act as one to extract payment from them. Tariffs and taxes on all exports and imports from now on. 

 

That gave me shivers reading that, let's hope not eh?

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doctor jambo
10 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

That gave me shivers reading that, let's hope not eh?

Indeed, forcing massive reparations on a defeated foe has not exactly worked out in the past

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indianajones
9 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

That gave me shivers reading that, let's hope not eh?

 

JKB at its best. Foreign policy, virology and epidemiology experts every other post in the shed. 

 

Its a shame as the shed used to be a decent place to visit. 

 

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Cade said:

It's going to take YEARS for the Russians to rebuild their armed forces after this, whether they win or lose.

 

And all that while, NATO will be re-arming.

 

They're goosed. And they know it.

 

This is nothing but one last, desperate, pathetic hail-mary action aimed at showing the world that Russia is still a player on the global stage.

A defiant screaming tantrum on their way down the slide to regional power status and global irrelevance.

Afghanistan wasn't enough for them.

Now they face being humiliated in Europe too.

 

I still think this was 100% Putin, terminally ill and wanting a last grand personal huzzah by recreating "Grand Russia", reuniting Russia, Ukraine (against its will), and Belarus (willingly) along with (probably) Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Artsakh in order to leave a lasting legacy as the modern-day "first statesman" of Greater Russia, uniter of the Russian peoples.

 

In his mind, what a vision! What glory he would attain by achieving that! It has completely clouded his eyes and his judgement. On the contrary, he has now effectively destroying Russia as a decent world player for quite a number of years. He knows this but will battle on as he still thinks he will be able to do it. Glory or bust!

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Jambo-Jimbo
7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I still think this was 100% Putin, terminally ill and wanting a last grand personal huzzah by recreating "Grand Russia", reuniting Russia, Ukraine (against its will), and Belarus (willingly) along with (probably) Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Artsakh in order to leave a lasting legacy as the modern-day "first statesman" of Greater Russia, uniter of the Russian peoples.

 

In his mind, what a vision! What glory he would attain by achieving that! It has completely clouded his eyes and his judgement. On the contrary, he has now effectively destroying Russia as a decent world player for quite a number of years. He knows this but will battle on as he still thinks he will be able to do it. Glory or bust!

 

A modern day Catherine the Great, he'd love if people were still talking about him 200 years after his death.

He might well get that wish, but probably not in the way he was wanting.

As you say he's destroying Russia, for decades to come.

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Shooter McGavin

He’s seriously damaging his own country over an ego-driven quest that seemingly no-one but himself wants.

 

If the reports that he’s got blood cancer are true, the snivelling little gimp will be long gone whilst his country has been reduced to a backwater s***hole, isolated from the rest of the world.

 

What a vision.

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UK intelligence assessments generally cautious but they give a fairly bleak assessment of Russian progress today.

 

 

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1 hour ago, indianajones said:

 

JKB at its best. Foreign policy, virology and epidemiology experts every other post in the shed. 

 

Its a shame as the shed used to be a decent place to visit. 

 

 

 

 

And you guys are experts are you!? 

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I guess if Putin is pushed hard enough he will achieve his ambition of having the West force him into using his nuclear weapons. I would suspect Finland would be another notch on his belt for his fulfilment, with his mindset it would be difficult to rationalise his ambitions which can only lead to his death and that of possibly many many thousands, if not humanity. Having again, in my life dealt with mentally  challenged sometimes in talking to an afflicted one you can see where there mentally challenged ramblings can make sense to them, Putin I suggest would let you know his ambition is not today, but his name forever in history.

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Maple Leaf
6 hours ago, Norm said:

The Russians may have been almost defeated in WWII but so were we. 

 

They won it just as much as the Brits, Yanks and French. 

 

Some would argue that the Soviets did more to beat Germany than the other allies.  For example, 80% of all German military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front.

But, as has been noted above, WWII was complicated and there are other factors to consider than just casualties inflicted.  However, the Soviet war effort should never be downplayed.

 

In regards to your "almost defeated" comment, you're spot on.  In mid-1942 the Allies were on the brink.  The battles of Midway and El-Alamein (both close run events) were the start of the comeback.

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il Duce McTarkin
39 minutes ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

Some would argue that the Soviets did more to beat Germany than the other allies.  For example, 80% of all German military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front.

But, as has been noted above, WWII was complicated and there are other factors to consider than just casualties inflicted.  However, the Soviet war effort should never be downplayed.

 

 

 

It  shouldn't be, however it would've ground to an abrupt halt were it not for the Arctic convoys.

 

They've got a cheek complaining about us sending supplies to the Ukraine.

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1 hour ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

Some would argue that the Soviets did more to beat Germany than the other allies.  For example, 80% of all German military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front.

But, as has been noted above, WWII was complicated and there are other factors to consider than just casualties inflicted.  However, the Soviet war effort should never be downplayed.

 

In regards to your "almost defeated" comment, you're spot on.  In mid-1942 the Allies were on the brink.  The battles of Midway and El-Alamein (both close run events) were the start of the comeback.

 

Provided all the still fighting allies held out Germany had no chance when it went into 1942. That was the point US production in particular was about to overwhelm them.

 

By 1943 it was now a 2 year long slow retreat all the way back to Berlin.

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Weakened Offender
8 hours ago, Norm said:

The Russians may have been almost defeated in WWII but so were we. 

 

They won it just as much as the Brits, Yanks and French. 

 

They won it more. 

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2 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

Some would argue that the Soviets did more to beat Germany than the other allies.  For example, 80% of all German military casualties occurred on the Eastern Front.

But, as has been noted above, WWII was complicated and there are other factors to consider than just casualties inflicted.  However, the Soviet war effort should never be downplayed.

 

In regards to your "almost defeated" comment, you're spot on.  In mid-1942 the Allies were on the brink.  The battles of Midway and El-Alamein (both close run events) were the start of the comeback.

It’s peculiar but the Russians were never put in the Allies bracket during WW2 but they were in essence.  The US had a lend lease agreement with the Russians which has never been as well documented over the decades in history programs.

 

Stalin still tried to gazump the Allies on the quiet in the push for Berlin after the Yalta conference. Always been a suspicious country.  He wanted to grab the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute before the Western Allies but all had been agreed and it was located in the US sector.   
 

The US had other Theatres of War to think about in Japan and deliberately held back a little and let the Russians do more of the donkey work in Germany. 
 


 

 

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Maple Leaf
5 hours ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Provided all the still fighting allies held out Germany had no chance when it went into 1942. That was the point US production in particular was about to overwhelm them.

 

By 1943 it was now a 2 year long slow retreat all the way back to Berlin.

 

True.  But if the Japanese had sunk the American carriers at Midway rather than the other way around, and if Rommel had won at El-Alamein giving the Germans access to Middle East oil, the Axis would have been on the ascendancy in 1943 not in retreat.

 

@Dirk McClaymoreAnd Dirk's comment above about the PQ convoys is a valid one.

 

It's a good discussion, but the wrong thread.  :thumb:

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4 hours ago, Maple Leaf said:

 

True.  But if the Japanese had sunk the American carriers at Midway rather than the other way around, and if Rommel had won at El-Alamein giving the Germans access to Middle East oil, the Axis would have been on the ascendancy in 1943 not in retreat.

 

@Dirk McClaymoreAnd Dirk's comment above about the PQ convoys is a valid one.

 

It's a good discussion, but the wrong thread.  :thumb:

All valid points ML, but regardless of both, Hitler's baffling decision to not only launch Operation Barbarossa in the first place (thus opening up a war on two fronts), but also delaying it until it was virtually guaranteed that unless the Werhmacht could hit Moscow in about 3 months, they would face the full Russian winter which they were totally unprepared for, meant Germany was on a hiding to nothing from that point on. 

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1 hour ago, trotter said:

All valid points ML, but regardless of both, Hitler's baffling decision to not only launch Operation Barbarossa in the first place (thus opening up a war on two fronts), but also delaying it until it was virtually guaranteed that unless the Werhmacht could hit Moscow in about 3 months, they would face the full Russian winter which they were totally unprepared for, meant Germany was on a hiding to nothing from that point on. 

 

A good example of why hubris is not a useful attribute to have in a war.

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Jambo-Jimbo
4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Just seen this. Wonder if they'll march right onto Moscow...

 

I think the Ukrainians will be overjoyed at getting their own land back.

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3 hours ago, jonesy said:

Just seen this. Wonder if they'll march right onto Moscow...

 

Imagine the scenes... We've played too much CoD :(

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Getting basic information from phone data etc has helped Ukraine identify human and equipment targets as well. 

 

Some basic errors. 

 

 

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Der Kaiser
4 hours ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Reports that Ukrainian troops have pushed the Russians right back to the Russian border near Kharkiv, and have erected a sign marking Ukrainian territory on the border, according to a regional governor.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805

 

 

Regional Governor's you say?

 

I imagine the regional governors now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line......and sweep the remnants of that Old Republic away forever.

 

:kirk:

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Russia has called up at least 2,000 reservists, who are undergoing basic training refreshers just behind the front lines.

 

 

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Jambo-Jimbo
On 15/05/2022 at 13:49, Shooter McGavin said:

He’s seriously damaging his own country over an ego-driven quest that seemingly no-one but himself wants.

 

If the reports that he’s got blood cancer are true, the snivelling little gimp will be long gone whilst his country has been reduced to a backwater s***hole, isolated from the rest of the world.

 

What a vision.

 

On so many levels as well.

 

McDonald's have announced that they are selling all of their 850 outlets and are getting out of Russia completely.

Renault also announced they were pulling out of Russia as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61463876

 

There will be more, many more I'd imagine, that will pull out of the Russian market completely, this will have a massive effect on Russia, not just in terms of lost foreign investment but also in jobs, jobs for ordinary Russians.

 

However, perhaps the most damaging and dangerous aspect of this, might be that the Russian public have for the last 30 years had a taste of what life is like in the West, luxury goods, up to date modern fashion, smart phones, international travel, the list goes on and on, and now through the actions of their leader it's all been taken away from them, that has got to have a backlash on the Kremlin and those in charge.

 

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Turkey to block Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO.

 

They're unhappy at both nation's failure to label the various Kurdish groups as terrorists and also unhappy about arms embargoes imposed on Turkey by those nations in response to Turkey's actions in Syria.

 

Both sides have valid points here.

This is not easy to unpick.

 

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6 minutes ago, Cade said:

Turkey to block Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO.

 

They're unhappy at both nation's failure to label the various Kurdish groups as terrorists and also unhappy about arms embargoes imposed on Turkey by those nations in response to Turkey's actions in Syria.

 

Both sides have valid points here.

This is not easy to unpick.

 

 

Has there been some new information about this released?

 

Erdogan has already stated that he he has reservations about them joining, but I haven't heard anything about Turkey saying that they would actually exercise their power of veto.

 

It looks as if Erdogan just wants to do some horse trading.

 

https://ecfr.eu/article/turkey-nato-and-the-ukraine-war-why-erdogans-grievances-are-about-more-than-sweden-and-finland/

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“We will not say ‘yes’ to those [countries] that apply sanctions to Turkey to join the security organisation Nato,” Erdoğan said. “They say they will come to Turkey on Monday. Will they come to persuade us? Excuse us, but they shouldn’t bother.”

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13 minutes ago, Cade said:

“We will not say ‘yes’ to those [countries] that apply sanctions to Turkey to join the security organisation Nato,” Erdoğan said. “They say they will come to Turkey on Monday. Will they come to persuade us? Excuse us, but they shouldn’t bother.”

 

Thanks Cade, I hadn't seen that. I still think he's angling for concessions, but the rhetoric has certainly been upped a notch.

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Jambo-Jimbo
38 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Has there been some new information about this released?

 

Erdogan has already stated that he he has reservations about them joining, but I haven't heard anything about Turkey saying that they would actually exercise their power of veto.

 

It looks as if Erdogan just wants to do some horse trading.

 

https://ecfr.eu/article/turkey-nato-and-the-ukraine-war-why-erdogans-grievances-are-about-more-than-sweden-and-finland/

 

Stoltenberg was saying that he was confident that Turkey's concerns could be addressed and shouldn't be an issue.

Unless something's changed since this morning.

 

Edit: I see the latest other posts.

Edited by Jambo-Jimbo
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13 minutes ago, Mister T said:

 

Is this actually Edinburgh? I take it someone made this and stuck it on a railing? 

 

 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/edinburgh-street-renamed-volodymyr-zelenskyy-26455530

 

Yup, unofficial, and the signs should be up in Melville Street, not Windsor Street, if we want to emulate the actions of various other municipalities. Non-news really.

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