Brentford/FC Midtjyland

[Leveins Battalion]

 

To me it looks like the recruitment team that Joe has built/building is modelled to a degree on these 2 clubs models.

 

Assuming George Brown is the statistician behind it and Lancefield/Savage and Neilson make the decision?

 

Is this a way for clubs similar in stature to ourselfs to punch above our weight?It would certainly look like it.

[Benzinho]

Been watching these two teams with interest ever since I read the book 'The Goldmine Effect' by Rasmus Ankersen, who is involved with both clubs. Would love to see us replicate some of the success these clubs have had punching above their weight. Also interesting that Brentford have effectively scrapped their academy below about 15/16 year old age level because they don't believe it serves them or the players well to be in the academy system from such young ages.

[milky_26]

12 minutes ago, Benzinho said:

Been watching these two teams with interest ever since I read the book 'The Goldmine Effect' by Rasmus Ankersen, who is involved with both clubs. Would love to see us replicate some of the success these clubs have had punching above their weight. Also interesting that Brentford have effectively scrapped their academy below about 15/16 year old age level because they don't believe it serves them or the players well to be in the academy system from such young ages.

the bit about the academy is also due to them being in london and having lots of 15/16/17/18 year olds they can pick up when they get dumped by other london clubs

[Guest ToqueJambo]

The Danish team definitely should be one we should look at, but that also maybe comes down to Denmark simply being a better, more confident football nation than us in general right now. Definitely a club form a similar sized country we should be looking to emulate though, especially with a result like tonights.

 

It's an embarrassing result for Celtic though. They probably have 10 times the budget of their opponents tonight.

I also wonder if the Danish league has two clubs dominating with massively superior financial resources like we have? If that gap is smaller, it's easier to push on.

 

Not sure about comparisons with English clubs. Clubs like Brentford have the carrot of the EPL riches to aim for. "All" they need to do is try to be better than the other Championship clubs and then they've won the lottery - for a season at least. They have no real ambition or expectation of playing in Europe, etc. It's all about investing to get to the EPL and maybe attract an ogliarch or American investor.

Edited July 28, 2021 by ToqueJambo

[glynnlondon]

38 minutes ago, Leveins Battalion said:

 

To me it looks like the recruitment team that Joe has built/building is modelled to a degree on these 2 clubs models.

 

Assuming George Brown is the statistician behind it and Lancefield/Savage and Neilson make the decision?

 

Is this a way for clubs similar in stature to ourselfs to punch above our weight?It would certainly look like it.

Would take just not being utter dogshit tbf.

 

[His name is]

5 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

The Danish team definitely should be one we should look at, but that also maybe comes down to Denmark simply being a better, more confident football nation than us in general right now. Definitely a club form a similar sized country we should be looking to emulate though, especially with a result like tonights.

 

It's an embarrassing result for Celtic though. They probably have 10 times the budget of their opponents tonight.

I also wonder if the Danish league has two clubs dominating with massively superior financial resources like we have? If that gap is smaller, it's easier to push on.

 

Not sure about comparisons with English clubs. Clubs like Brentford have the carrot of the EPL riches to aim for. "All" they need to do is try to be better than the other Championship clubs and then they've won the lottery - for a season at least. They have no real ambition or expectation of playing in Europe, etc. It's all about investing to get to the EPL and maybe attract an ogliarch or American investor.

I had a wee look at wage bills tonight, apparently midtjyland is £6.7m, Celtic nearly £23m.

 

 

[Mr Elwood P]

2 minutes ago, His name is said:

I had a wee look at wage bills tonight, apparently midtjyland is £6.7m, Celtic nearly £23m.

 

 

What’s your source? I think Celtic have a wage bill far higher than that …

[Guest ToqueJambo]

2 minutes ago, His name is said:

I had a wee look at wage bills tonight, apparently midtjyland is £6.7m, Celtic nearly £23m.

 

 

 

Add in Celtic's massive cash reserves though. With that wage bill, they're comparable to us but they don't play in a league with two massive clubs blocking progress. I wonder what the wage bills are of Denmark's OF equivalents?

[Guest ToqueJambo]

Just now, Mr Elwood P said:

What’s your source? I think Celtic have a wage bill far higher than that …

 

£60m according to a quick google

[His name is]

5 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

What’s your source? I think Celtic have a wage bill far higher than that …

https://salarysport.com/football/scottish-premiership/celtic/

 

*I don't know how accurate that is, surely there or thereabouts

[Mr Elwood P]

7 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

£60m according to a quick google

 

1 minute ago, His name is said:

https://salarysport.com/football/scottish-premiership/celtic/

 

*I don't know how accurate that is, surely there or thereabouts

Think £60m is a lot closer, although Brown and Ajer will have been on big wages …

[Guest ToqueJambo]

7 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

 

Think £60m is a lot closer, although Brown and Ajer will have been on big wages …

 

It's a shitload more than us and almost everyone else anyhow!

[His name is]

10 minutes ago, Mr Elwood P said:

 

Think £60m is a lot closer, although Brown and Ajer will have been on big wages …

http://priceoffootball.com/celtic-and-rangers-2019-20-the-watchman/

 

Maybe a better site, £54m. Crazy!

[Locky]

I recall reading a while back that both clubs operate a recruitment style very similar to 'Moneyball'. Whatever you want to call it, it's served both clubs well.

 

The results at both clubs are clear to see since Matthew Benham took over them. He became majority shareholder at Brentford in 2012, which until then they had yo-yo'd between the 3rd and 4th tiers. They quickly went to the Championship and finished in the top half every season until as we know, they got promoted to the PL.

 

As for Midtjylland, he acquired the club in 2014. They were only formed in 1999 following the merger of 2 clubs, and despite being relatively successful in terms of league placings, were fairly modest. Since he bought the club, they've won 3 league titles, 1 Danish cup, and got to the group stages of UEFA Champions League football.

 

It's certainly an interesting model.

[SomethingAboutObua]

It's an interesting model, I'm not a fan of binning youth but the reasoning they use makes sense. 

 

Midtjyland are a tester team for stuff to use at Brentford, stuff that doesn't work there isn't used for Brentford. FC Copenhagen still win regular titles, Brondby pop up too, they're both run how "normal teams" are run, so still important to keep that in mind that Midtyland's methods don't mean they just run the show in Denmark 

[Perth to Paisley]

I think you might like this book – "Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution" by Christoph Biermann.

Start reading it for free: https://amzn.eu/fRR8lFy

[Cruyff]

It looks like we have put together a good recruitment team on paper but for it to work we need to spend some money on players that we believe have future sell on value. 

 

The sticking point between us and those two examples are that we are fan owned. Therefore we might need private investment or Mr Benny Factor to buy into it, to turn that moneyball approach into something that will pay dividends in the longer term. 

[Leveins Battalion]

 

 

Looks like Cammy Devlin is one of the 1st ''Moneyball'' type signings.Spotted by our new analyst.

[Bill Bones]

I think its a bit simplistic to say that this signing is a "moneyball" signing or shows that we are perhaps going down same path as Brentford etc. 

 

I would imagine about 90% of signings by professional teams are on this basis.  Data will be behind the identification of certain players based on certain characteristics and then scouts/managers will then have a look at the player on video or in person. 

 

My understanding of moneyball aporoach is limited to the film but i think it's more about purely signing based on data and also specifically targeting players who are under valued either because of league they play in or they appear to the eye to be not as good because their team mates are dragging them down. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Bill Bones

[wavydavy]

On 28/07/2021 at 21:37, ToqueJambo said:

The Danish team definitely should be one we should look at, but that also maybe comes down to Denmark simply being a better, more confident football nation than us in general right now. Definitely a club form a similar sized country we should be looking to emulate though, especially with a result like tonights.

 

It's an embarrassing result for Celtic though. They probably have 10 times the budget of their opponents tonight.

I also wonder if the Danish league has two clubs dominating with massively superior financial resources like we have? If that gap is smaller, it's easier to push on.

 

Not sure about comparisons with English clubs. Clubs like Brentford have the carrot of the EPL riches to aim for. "All" they need to do is try to be better than the other Championship clubs and then they've won the lottery - for a season at least. They have no real ambition or expectation of playing in Europe, etc. It's all about investing to get to the EPL and maybe attract an ogliarch or American investor.

 

Denmark have amazing facilities all over the Country for most sports which certainly helps the developemnt of youngsters.

[Jambo92]

On 28/07/2021 at 21:15, Benzinho said:

Been watching these two teams with interest ever since I read the book 'The Goldmine Effect' by Rasmus Ankersen, who is involved with both clubs. Would love to see us replicate some of the success these clubs have had punching above their weight. Also interesting that Brentford have effectively scrapped their academy below about 15/16 year old age level because they don't believe it serves them or the players well to be in the academy system from such young ages.

 

Met Rasmus at a work event once, a total arse of a man but delivered really interesting presentation.  The bit I remembered was the stats on Newcastle from the season they finished 5th with Ba and Cisse.  Their stats were an analysts nightmare, literally scored 90 percent of there chances or something daft.

[I P Knightley]

On 28/07/2021 at 21:28, milky_26 said:

the bit about the academy is also due to them being in london and having lots of 15/16/17/18 year olds they can pick up when they get dumped by other london clubs

The academy system is a nightmare. So many young kids are chewed up and spat out by it having been 'offered' the promises of a glittering career with their heroes at the age of 8 or so. I always resisted it for Knightley Jr who was looked at by a couple of clubs around that age. He's watched kids his age be taken into academies (most often at the parents' pushing) only to return to their Sunday clubs with their tails between their legs 6-12 months later. For all these academies and development clubs around the country, there were only 180 teenagers who signed up professionally in the last full, non-covid season. The 'investment' is water off a duck's back to the likes of Spurs and Chelsea but it makes sense for a club of Brentford's size to can the whole experience, let kids enjoy their weekend football with amateur clubs and identify those who rise to the top aged 16/17.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bill Bones said:

I think its a bit simplistic to say that this signing is a "moneyball" signing or shows that we are perhaps going down same path as Brentford etc. 

 

I would imagine about 90% of signings by professional teams are on this basis.  Data will be behind the identification of certain players based on certain characteristics and then scouts/managers will then have a look at the player on video or in person. 

 

My understanding of moneyball aporoach is limited to the film but i think it's more about purely signing based on data and also specifically targeting players who are under valued either because of league they play in or they appear to the eye to be not as good because their team mates are dragging them down. 

If all clubs, or even a significant number of clubs, started to operate on Moneyball principles, any advantage of doing so would be wiped out due to arbitrage. It's not a sustainable model but the first movers are able to make some gains.

 

However, for top clubs, the approach is generally more sophisticated than spotting a lad who 'could do a job'. The trick is to work out a monetary value of the statistics generated for each player.

 

When Ronaldo was at Man Utd, a guy I know was involved in a valuation exercise that took into account all sorts of measurements and came up with a valuation of £54-56m; i.e. if anyone bid more than that, snap their arm off. Hence the £80m sale to Madrid. This guy is a qualified accountant who couldn't kick a football from a penalty spot to the goal line but he had the ear of Ferguson and Woodward due to the insight he could provide into football statistics.

 

Mind you, there's no exact science to it so it could all be an exercise in polishing turds.

[Stu_HMFC]

I have enjoyed watching Brentford over the last few years and now glad they got into the premier league. I really like Thomas Frank. It will be interesting to see how they do in the EPL

[NANOJAMBO]

1 hour ago, Stu_HMFC said:

I have enjoyed watching Brentford over the last few years and now glad they got into the premier league. I really like Thomas Frank. It will be interesting to see how they do in the EPL

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/05/brentford-ditched-their-academy-premier-league-outcasts

 

Good article on Brentford , Rasmussen here.

Also , the comments on how German clubs operate is very interesting. 

[Stu_HMFC]

8 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/05/brentford-ditched-their-academy-premier-league-outcasts

 

Good article on Brentford , Rasmussen here.

Also , the comments on how German clubs operate is very interesting. 

I'll give that a read after lunch at work. 

[Boof]

3 hours ago, I P Knightley said:

The academy system is a nightmare. So many young kids are chewed up and spat out by it having been 'offered' the promises of a glittering career with their heroes at the age of 8 or so. I always resisted it for Knightley Jr who was looked at by a couple of clubs around that age. He's watched kids his age be taken into academies (most often at the parents' pushing) only to return to their Sunday clubs with their tails between their legs 6-12 months later. For all these academies and development clubs around the country, there were only 180 teenagers who signed up professionally in the last full, non-covid season. The 'investment' is water off a duck's back to the likes of Spurs and Chelsea but it makes sense for a club of Brentford's size to can the whole experience, let kids enjoy their weekend football with amateur clubs and identify those who rise to the top aged 16/17.

 

 

Which brought to mind the 2017 N5 English RUAE paper.

 

Resilience

 

My best friend, Mark, was a keen footballer. We played in my back garden every afternoon as kids, often down the local park, sometimes other kids would join us, and in the summer we never seemed to leave.

 

I often think of those long, endlessly absorbing days, game after game, sometimes until it got dark and we played by the dim glow of street lights. In the summer holidays, my mum would make a two-litre bottle of orange squash and we would pass it from player to player at half-time, none of us deterred by the fact it had got warm in the sun. My, it tasted good.

 

Mark never made it into the school team. He kept trying, kept going to the “trials”, both at primary and senior school, but he was just off the pace. The disappointment was always bitter. You could see it on his face. He yearned to play, to progress, to be able to read out a match report at school assembly (one of the honours of making the team). But he never did.

 

It has been reported that 98 per cent of those signed by English teams at 16 fail to make the transition into professional football. Many struggle to cope with rejection at such a tender age. Clinical psychologists report that many suffer anxiety, a loss of confidence and, in some cases, depression. These youngsters are often described as being “left on football’s scrapheap”.

 

It seems to me, though, that the number rejected is, in fact, far higher. After all, the sifting process starts from the first time you kick a ball at the local park. I was one of the few who made it into my school team (I captained it). But when I went to trial for the district team, surrounded by the best players from all the schools in the area, the standard was high. Parents were everywhere. I remember my heart beating out of my chest when the “scouts” arrived. I did not make it. I was crushed by the disappointment. How could it be otherwise? But I also realised that the race had only just started for those who had made the cut. Of those who made it into the district team, only a handful were picked by Reading, the local club. And of those who made it to Reading, only a fraction made it into professional football. Perhaps none made it all the way to the top flight.

 

And that really is the point. When we watch any Premier League match, we are witnessing players who have made it through a filtering process of staggering dimensions. It is a process that does not merely discard 98 per cent of those who aspire, but something closer to 99·9999 per cent. For every first-team player, there are millions of others, like grains of sand on the beach, who have tried, who have dreamt, but who have failed.

 

The majority, like Mark, never made it through the first lap. Others made it to the final straight, before dropping out. But this is football. This is life. Failure is an inevitable aspect of any competition worthy of the name. Without losers, there cannot be winners. Without pain, there cannot be joy. Without natural selection, there cannot be evolution. Failure is not the opposite of progress; failure is part and parcel of progress.

 

Take a step back and you will see that football is a beautiful meritocracy. That so many dreams are shattered is testament to just how many dared to dream in the first place. The skills are transparent, the opportunities exist. There is no room for family favours or cosy alliances. The best of the best shine through, whether they are from a tough part of Liverpool, like Wayne Rooney, or raised in grinding poverty in Uruguay, like Luis Suárez.

And the important point is that clubs have a responsibility to those who make it as far as the academies. They have a responsibility to create rounded people, with decent educations. Parents must support this approach, too, rather than exerting undue pressure on often vulnerable children. This is not just about giving youngsters a plan B; it is also about enlightened self-interest.

 

Youngsters who are educated and self-assured are likely to be better footballers, too. The Ancient Greeks understood this only too well. They created strong links between the gymnasiums and the academies and embraced the humane idea that the mind and body grow together. The German football system has embraced this truth, too. The clubs there want intelligent and confident young men. Such a cultural transformation needs to happen here, too. But I wish to make a deeper point. It is that we need to redefine our relationship with failure, not just in football but in life. We need to remind our children that losing is an essential (indeed, a beautiful) part of life. We need to emphasise the empowering idea that failure is less important, infinitely less so, than how we respond to it. Failing to make the grade at football is crushing. It is natural to be sad. But it is also a pathway to a new reality.

 

Tens of thousands do not make it to Oxford or Cambridge. Hundreds of thousands of actors never win an Oscar. Tens of millions fail to make it into Manchester United or Chelsea. But this is not the end of life. It is merely the beginning. It is an opportunity to conceive a new dream, a new hope, a new way of finding meaning in this curious journey called life.

 

I often think about Mark. And I am thankful that his failures in football, so important, so trivial, never deterred him. He created new dreams, new aspirations, and lived a life that inspired all who knew him.

 

Life is too short, too precious, to be derailed by failure. We have to accept it. We have to embrace it.

 

Matthew Syed, in “The Times”

 

 

Question paper available here: https://www.sqa.org.uk/pastpapers/papers/papers/2017/N5_English_all_2017.pdf  

[Jammy T]

I saw Rasmus Ankersson at a speaker event also - seemed ok.

 

Bought his book - Hunger in Paradise - a really good read.

 

They have got their heads screwed on properly at Brentford.

[I P Knightley]

1 hour ago, Boof said:

 

Which brought to mind the 2017 N5 English RUAE paper.

 

Resilience

 

My best friend, Mark, was a keen footballer. We played in my back garden every afternoon as kids, often down the local park, sometimes other kids would join us, and in the summer we never seemed to leave.

 

I often think of those long, endlessly absorbing days, game after game, sometimes until it got dark and we played by the dim glow of street lights. In the summer holidays, my mum would make a two-litre bottle of orange squash and we would pass it from player to player at half-time, none of us deterred by the fact it had got warm in the sun. My, it tasted good.

 

Mark never made it into the school team. He kept trying, kept going to the “trials”, both at primary and senior school, but he was just off the pace. The disappointment was always bitter. You could see it on his face. He yearned to play, to progress, to be able to read out a match report at school assembly (one of the honours of making the team). But he never did.

 

It has been reported that 98 per cent of those signed by English teams at 16 fail to make the transition into professional football. Many struggle to cope with rejection at such a tender age. Clinical psychologists report that many suffer anxiety, a loss of confidence and, in some cases, depression. These youngsters are often described as being “left on football’s scrapheap”.

 

It seems to me, though, that the number rejected is, in fact, far higher. After all, the sifting process starts from the first time you kick a ball at the local park. I was one of the few who made it into my school team (I captained it). But when I went to trial for the district team, surrounded by the best players from all the schools in the area, the standard was high. Parents were everywhere. I remember my heart beating out of my chest when the “scouts” arrived. I did not make it. I was crushed by the disappointment. How could it be otherwise? But I also realised that the race had only just started for those who had made the cut. Of those who made it into the district team, only a handful were picked by Reading, the local club. And of those who made it to Reading, only a fraction made it into professional football. Perhaps none made it all the way to the top flight.

 

And that really is the point. When we watch any Premier League match, we are witnessing players who have made it through a filtering process of staggering dimensions. It is a process that does not merely discard 98 per cent of those who aspire, but something closer to 99·9999 per cent. For every first-team player, there are millions of others, like grains of sand on the beach, who have tried, who have dreamt, but who have failed.

 

The majority, like Mark, never made it through the first lap. Others made it to the final straight, before dropping out. But this is football. This is life. Failure is an inevitable aspect of any competition worthy of the name. Without losers, there cannot be winners. Without pain, there cannot be joy. Without natural selection, there cannot be evolution. Failure is not the opposite of progress; failure is part and parcel of progress.

 

Take a step back and you will see that football is a beautiful meritocracy. That so many dreams are shattered is testament to just how many dared to dream in the first place. The skills are transparent, the opportunities exist. There is no room for family favours or cosy alliances. The best of the best shine through, whether they are from a tough part of Liverpool, like Wayne Rooney, or raised in grinding poverty in Uruguay, like Luis Suárez.

And the important point is that clubs have a responsibility to those who make it as far as the academies. They have a responsibility to create rounded people, with decent educations. Parents must support this approach, too, rather than exerting undue pressure on often vulnerable children. This is not just about giving youngsters a plan B; it is also about enlightened self-interest.

 

Youngsters who are educated and self-assured are likely to be better footballers, too. The Ancient Greeks understood this only too well. They created strong links between the gymnasiums and the academies and embraced the humane idea that the mind and body grow together. The German football system has embraced this truth, too. The clubs there want intelligent and confident young men. Such a cultural transformation needs to happen here, too. But I wish to make a deeper point. It is that we need to redefine our relationship with failure, not just in football but in life. We need to remind our children that losing is an essential (indeed, a beautiful) part of life. We need to emphasise the empowering idea that failure is less important, infinitely less so, than how we respond to it. Failing to make the grade at football is crushing. It is natural to be sad. But it is also a pathway to a new reality.

 

Tens of thousands do not make it to Oxford or Cambridge. Hundreds of thousands of actors never win an Oscar. Tens of millions fail to make it into Manchester United or Chelsea. But this is not the end of life. It is merely the beginning. It is an opportunity to conceive a new dream, a new hope, a new way of finding meaning in this curious journey called life.

 

I often think about Mark. And I am thankful that his failures in football, so important, so trivial, never deterred him. He created new dreams, new aspirations, and lived a life that inspired all who knew him.

 

Life is too short, too precious, to be derailed by failure. We have to accept it. We have to embrace it.

 

Matthew Syed, in “The Times”

 

 

Question paper available here: https://www.sqa.org.uk/pastpapers/papers/papers/2017/N5_English_all_2017.pdf  

Good essay, there. Thanks.

 

Slightly back on topic - I've been sent an email by the Brentford Community Sports Trust offering me tickets to see them play Valencia for a tenner. Very tempted but kick off is during the first half of the Lions v Boks match so I'll have to give it a miss. A tenner, though!!

Edited August 6, 2021 by I P Knightley

[Boof]

4 minutes ago, I P Knightley said:

Good essay, there. Thanks.

 

I had visions of 16 year old lads up and down the country turning the page, finding that and thinking 'Oh, great - it's all about fitba'!' only to realise they still had to answer questions about the author's use of metaphors, sentence structure, word choice...  

[I P Knightley]

7 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

I had visions of 16 year old lads up and down the country turning the page, finding that and thinking 'Oh, great - it's all about fitba'!' only to realise they still had to answer questions about the author's use of metaphors, sentence structure, word choice...  

I remember a question we had at school which may have been from a past paper. It was an essay about a Rod Stewart concert we were asked to analyse. I don't remember the questions being spoonfed in the way of your example but I think my analysis wandered off into criticism of Rod's career direction following The Faces!

[Boof]

 

 

They're not quite that spoonfed - the question will just ask about the writer's use of language which they then have to choose which of the techniques they want to base an answer upon.

 

 

[JamboBoy]

This is without doubt the way forward for clubs like Hearts. It was absolutely no surprise to me that the Danish club turned Celtic over. Both of these clubs have a great structure and of course great data analysis capabilities. No doubt the media up here will have a pop if our approach delivers success. Just the way it is up here!