Lone Striker Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 With a grateful nod to @Footballfirst for a "potential points " version of the league table a few weeks ago - and bearing in mind that our goal machine seems to have broken down recently - here's the current PPG figures for the the top 8 teams, and my "worst case" estimates for everyone's PPG for the remainder of the league (27 games). By worst case, I mean an assumption (for the remaining games) that our PPG goes DOWN significantly while our challengers PPG goes UP significantly. This is a worst case where we can still sneak the title IF our PPG over the remaining games is at most 0.8 less than our challengers. If Hearts drop to anything like 1.4 PPG for the final 10 matches, the "Robbie oot" brigade will probably be hiring a plane. <---- CURRENT ---> <--- REMAINING -----> Played Points PPG Games Estimate PPG Estimate Points Final Points 1 Hearts 17 38 2.24 10 1.4 14 52 2 Dunfermline 16 27 1.69 11 2.2 24 51 3 Raith Rovers 15 24 1.60 12 2.2 26 50 4 Queen of South 17 21 1.24 10 2.2 22 43 5 Dundee 14 20 1.43 13 2.2 29 49 6 Arbroath 17 18 1.06 10 1.5 15 33 7 Greenock Morton 16 18 1.13 11 1.5 16 34 8 Inverness CT 13 17 1.31 14 2.2 31 48 One bit of good news is that all 4 of our challengers cannot achieve the same spectacular improvement due to the delayed matches involving them all - TUESDAY 23RD FEBRUARY Dundee v Ayr United Inverness CT v Alloa Athletic TUESDAY 2ND MARCH Dundee v Inverness CT TUESDAY 9TH MARCH Inverness CT v Morton Raith Rovers v Ayr United WEDNESDAY 10TH MARCH Dunfermline v Dundee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
22games nro Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 After the last 2 games ,we’d better not take anything for granted 😔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davemclaren Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, 22games nro said: After the last 2 games ,we’d better not take anything for granted 😔 We should never take anything for granted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwidoug Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I didnt really understand any of that but I know that if we don't win this league in a canter I will drink myself to oblivion. Surely the day will dawn soon when we remind the scottish football world of who we are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomethingAboutObua Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Good post, what did you do to come to the 1.4PPG as a reasonable absolute worst case scenario? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton51 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Also the challengers will all take points off each other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lone Striker Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, SomethingAboutObua said: Good post, what did you do to come to the 1.4PPG as a reasonable absolute worst case scenario? Just tried a few PPG numbers for us to see how bad we can afford to be if the likes of Dunfermline & Raith improve to the level of PPG we've been at over our 17 games. These last 2 draws suggest that our PPG is likely to be less than 2 for the remaining games. How much less is anyone's guess. 🙄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pharmaceutical01 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 At current PPG rates, looked like we need 46 points......but my maths may be wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Kiwidoug said: I didnt really understand any of that but I know that if we don't win this league in a canter I will drink myself to oblivion. Surely the day will dawn soon when we remind the scottish football world of who we are. Golly gosh, Doug! Don't use the word ‘canter’ on here. Not since last night anyway, you’ll get yourself into all sorts of trouble from the JKB ‘experts’. Please behave, toe the party line and nod approvingly when appropriate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1971fozzy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 The away games worry me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr ewing Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, Kiwidoug said: I didnt really understand any of that but I know that if we don't win this league in a canter I will drink myself to oblivion. Surely the day will dawn soon when we remind the scottish football world of who we are. Don't think they'll be too worried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, pharmaceutical01 said: At current PPG rates, looked like we need 46 points......but my maths may be wrong 46 looks a wee bitty low. Somewhere between 49 and 52 should do the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbo-Jambo Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, 1971fozzy said: The away games worry me Would actually be surprised if we come away with three points from Inverness on Friday after our last two performances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theshed Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, Newton51 said: Also the challengers will all take points off each other Thank god Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lone Striker Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, Newton51 said: Also the challengers will all take points off each other Indeed. Dundee have still to play postponed games against ICT and Dunfermline. 11 minutes ago, pharmaceutical01 said: At current PPG rates, looked like we need 46 points......but my maths may be wrong If everyone continues with the same PPG as they have at the moment, then only hindsight at the end of the season could say that we won it when we reached 46 points. In reality, the "running PPG" for each team will change every week. I sincerely hope we don't end up just limping over the line with a point or 2 to spare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkishcap Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I have no doubt we will win it but not by the margin expected by many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonbe110 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 15 points ahead of second placed team is my prediction for final placings. Re other thread on Robbie poll, if I’m close to being correct it will be a world first if we terminate his contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozzyonthefence Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, soonbe110 said: 15 points ahead of second placed team is my prediction for final placings. Re other thread on Robbie poll, if I’m close to being correct it will be a world first if we terminate his contract. Nonsense. To the 2nd part. Edited February 21, 2021 by Fozzyonthefence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Kiwidoug said: I didnt really understand any of that but I know that if we don't win this league in a canter I will drink myself to oblivion. Surely the day will dawn soon when we remind the scottish football world of who we are. We were 2 penalties from doing just that. 😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, soonbe110 said: 15 points ahead of second placed team is my prediction for final placings. Re other thread on Robbie poll, if I’m close to being correct it will be a world first if we terminate his contract. There is no way we will win this bloody league by 15 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGlynn The Money Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, Morgan said: 46 looks a wee bitty low. Somewhere between 49 and 52 should do the job. Would you take 47? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, McGlynn The Money said: Would you take 47? I certainly would, Mr McGlynn. 👍😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of The Cat Cafe Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said: The away games worry me I have this vision of going to Raith for the last game and needing to win (or at least not lose). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, soonbe110 said: 15 points ahead of second placed team is my prediction for final placings. Re other thread on Robbie poll, if I’m close to being correct it will be a world first if we terminate his contract. At the start of the season I said we'd get about 65 points at the start the season, and the closest to us woukd be lucky to get 50. We might be nearer 60 and our challengers nearer 45 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGlynn The Money Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, Morgan said: I certainly would, Mr McGlynn. 👍😀 Good man! I could have gone to 48 at a push but happy to close on 47. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hectormasson Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 31 minutes ago, jr ewing said: Don't think they'll be too worried. Correct they couldn't wait to boot us out ? 😡😡😡😡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hectormasson Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Morgan said: I certainly would, Mr McGlynn. 👍😀 Prefer 51😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Morgan said: There is no way we will win this bloody league by 15 points. 5 wins, not guaranteed but hardly out of the question. Dunfermline away would be a 6 point swing either way depending on the result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, McGlynn The Money said: Good man! I could have gone to 48 at a push but happy to close on 47. We’ll do this. Then, we’ll change about 75% of the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Just now, Hectormasson said: Prefer 51😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, Morgan said: Golly gosh, Doug! Don't use the word ‘canter’ on here. Not since last night anyway, you’ll get yourself into all sorts of trouble from the JKB ‘experts’. Please behave, toe the party line and nod approvingly when appropriate. 🤣 @Lone Striker assuming everything remains steady we will be what 60/61 and Dunfy in Second on 45 , correct? Thats having dropped from 2.4ppg to 2.24ppg after two draws. So as of now we are comfortably doing what we need too. I appreciate this. Its probably the best way assess how we are performing results wise in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Smith's right boot said: 5 wins, not guaranteed but hardly out of the question. Dunfermline away would be a 6 point swing either way depending on the result. Imagine Hearts worrying about a result at Dunfermline. You're right though, T. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, sadj said: 🤣 @Lone Striker assuming everything remains steady we will be what 60/61 and Dunfy in Second on 45 , correct? Thats having dropped from 2.4ppg to 2.24ppg after two draws. So as of now we are comfortably doing what we need too. I appreciate this. Its probably the best way assess how we are performing results wise in the league. And, good evening to you,sir! 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Celtic would be on 2.13ppg with their resources advantage against the shit they are playing..... 😜 Spoiler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazzas right boot Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Morgan said: Imagine Hearts worrying about a result at Dunfermline. You're right though, T. 👍 I'm not too worried, it is Hearts tho so if there is a difficult way to do something we'll dig it up. Getting beat at Inverness and Dunfermline beating us when we play would make things interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyCant Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, soonbe110 said: 15 points ahead of second placed team is my prediction for final placings. Re other thread on Robbie poll, if I’m close to being correct it will be a world first if we terminate his contract. Mauricio Sarri Del Bosque Capello Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lone Striker Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, sadj said: 🤣 @Lone Striker assuming everything remains steady we will be what 60/61 and Dunfy in Second on 45 , correct? Thats having dropped from 2.4ppg to 2.24ppg after two draws. So as of now we are comfortably doing what we need too. I appreciate this. Its probably the best way assess how we are performing results wise in the league. Yes. correct - but ONLY IF the running PPG stays the same for us and Dunfermline. But it won't - it's constantly changing, sometimes up and sometimes down. The table is just trying to illustrate what we'd need to do in the final 10 games if the likes of Dunfermline suddenly make a big improvement - in other words, an alarming slump by us and an extreme improvement by them. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozzyonthefence Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, JimmyCant said: Mauricio Sarri Del Bosque Capello I’ll raise you Laurent Blanc but I’m sure there will be many more. Of course we’re just referring to managers winning titles in their top leagues not some tin pot 2nd tier or worse (in the case of Blanc he got sacked after PSG won the league by 31 points). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Lone Striker said: Yes. correct - but ONLY IF the running PPG stays the same for us and Dunfermline. But it won't - it's constantly changing, sometimes up and sometimes down. The table is just trying to illustrate what we'd need to do in the final 10 games if the likes of Dunfermline suddenly make a big improvement - in other words, an alarming slump by us and an extreme improvement by them. 👍 Yh i got that pal , appreciate it. I dont think our ppg would drop even close to that. I think a fair few of us would be happy with 55 points (see that as a decent season considering) and comfortable that no one else would get close to that. Prob 10/12 clear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysthereinspirit Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 If we take 15 points from our last 30 available. Raith would then need to take 30 from 36. Dunfermline 27 from 33. Dundee 34 from 39. Promotion was always the goal this season. I think that’s right. I’ve had a few. Wife’s birthday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lone Striker Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, sadj said: Yh i got that pal , appreciate it. I dont think our ppg would drop even close to that. I think a fair few of us would be happy with 55 points (see that as a decent season considering) and comfortable that no one else would get close to that. Prob 10/12 clear. Yep - I'd be happy with mid-50s too. 👍 5 wins and 2 draws would get us to 55. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyCant Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Fozzyonthefence said: I’ll raise you Laurent Blanc but I’m sure there will be many more. Of course we’re just referring to managers winning titles in their top leagues not some tin pot 2nd tier or worse (in the case of Blanc he got sacked after PSG won the league by 31 points). Bobby Robson sacked by Sporting whilst top of the league. Rangers sacked Scot Symon when he was top of the league We could go on all night and not even mention the name Burley Edited February 21, 2021 by JimmyCant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr ewing Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Lone Striker said: Yep - I'd be happy with mid-50s too. 👍 5 wins and 2 draws would get us to 55. 5 wins. Wow that's optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, jr ewing said: 5 wins. Wow that's optimistic. I hope you are being sarcastic? As in 5 is a poor return Edited February 21, 2021 by sadj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, alwaysthereinspirit said: If we take 15 points from our last 30 available. Raith would then need to take 30 from 36. Dunfermline 27 from 33. Dundee 34 from 39. Promotion was always the goal this season. I think that’s right. I’ve had a few. Wife’s birthday. Sounds like a good excuse to me. I used this one the other day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomaso Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 44 minutes ago, Morgan said: Imagine Hearts worrying about a result at Dunfermline. You're right though, T. 👍 I’ll worry about the game in Inverness first! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr ewing Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, sadj said: I hope you are being sarcastic? As in 5 is a poor return Not with what I've been watching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysthereinspirit Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, sadj said: Sounds like a good excuse to me. I used this one the other day I don’t want to encourage. Camel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ari Gold Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 The league is done and has been for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadj Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, alwaysthereinspirit said: I don’t want to encourage. Camel. I drink very rarely to be fair im almost like Tom Brady snifter and im off me tits 🤣 Camel is the correct answer tho.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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