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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

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davemclaren
21 minutes ago, TypoonJambo said:

Nah, get Dungcaster in on the first day with fans. Make the man feel accepted.

Interesting atmosphere. 

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alwaysthereinspirit
1 hour ago, naeclue said:

Seems appropriate that it’s other teams dropping points that confirms us as champions.

 

Great to be able to bounce back up.

🤦🏻‍♂️
The name Naeclue was chosen with perfection 

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47 minutes ago, south morocco said:

What’s the format for the play offs?

4th v 3rd , winner plays 2nd, winner plays 11th in premiership 

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Hagar the Horrible

Good to keep this going to work out which game was the decider dundee an the pars dropped more points 

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Footballfirst

For anyone still interested in the playoffs

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 24 50 9 59 2.08 56.25
Raith 24 40 9 49 1.67 45.00
Dundee 24 38 9 47 1.58 42.75
ICT 24 34 9 43 1.42 38.25
Dunfermline 24 33 9 42 1.38 37.13
QOTS 24 31 9 40 1.29 34.88
Ayr 24 27 9 36 1.13 30.38
Morton 24 26 9 35 1.08 29.25
Arbroath 24 26 9 35 1.08 29.25
Alloa 24 18 9 27 0.75 20.25
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heartsfc_fan

Dunfermline have chucked it. Had them on for 2nd in the early games of the league. Not now.

Imagine Raith go up 🤣 would be an incredible feat from League 1 last season (despite being promoted unfairly, of course, and their chairman being a ****)

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Playoff positions are tight. Will be a good run in to see who makes it. Definitely all still to play for. 

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11 hours ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

Good to keep this going to work out which game was the decider dundee an the pars dropped more points 

When we got to 

 

42 points, beat Dundee 2.1 (06 March)

45 points, beat Ayr 2.0 (13 March)

46 points, draw Arbroath (20 March)

47 points, draw Dunfermline (03 April)

50 points, beat Alloa (09 April)

 

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11 hours ago, Restonbabe said:

Playoff positions are tight. Will be a good run in to see who makes it. Definitely all still to play for. 

After watching the match last night I cannot see much to worry about for Hamilton/Killie or Ross County over two legs in the playoffs

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18 hours ago, heartsfc_fan said:

Dunfermline have chucked it. Had them on for 2nd in the early games of the league. Not now.

Imagine Raith go up 🤣 would be an incredible feat from League 1 last season (despite being promoted unfairly, of course, and their chairman being a ****)

Lots of  people had them to be miles in front of us after we lost 2-1 to them. 🙈

 

Fair play to Raith they look like theyll get over 45 points and I didn’t think any other team would manage that. 

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Footballfirst

Today's update with Alloa's relegation confirmed. 🤣

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 24 50 9 59 2.08 56.25
Raith 25 43 6 49 1.72 46.44
Dundee 24 38 9 47 1.58 42.75
Dunfermline 25 36 6 42 1.44 38.88
ICT 24 34 9 43 1.42 38.25
QOTS 25 31 6 37 1.24 33.48
Arbroath 25 29 6 35 1.16 31.32
Ayr 25 27 6 33 1.08 29.16
Morton 24 26 9 35 1.08 29.25
Alloa (Rel) 25 18 6 24 0.72 19.44
Edited by Footballfirst
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davemclaren
On 31/01/2021 at 17:14, Restonbabe said:

I believe I've been doing some bad math. Looking for someone to help me... 

13 games left 

Next 9 as follows         points 32

February 

 5th   A to Ayr              35

12th A to QoS.             38

20th H to morton        41

26th A to ICT.             44

March

 6th home to dundee.  47  

13th home to Ayr          50

20th away to Arbroath 

27th home to QoS

April 

 3rd away to Dunfermline 

 

Providing we win the remainder of these fixtures and the following happens  do we win the league in Dunfermline? 

 

February 

 3rd Raith vs dunfermline (dunf win) 

13th dunfermline v Dundee(Dundee)

20th February. 3 fixtures 

March 

5th raith vs dunfermline (raith) 

 

If these fixtures pan out like that on 6th March at home vs Dundee we can go 14-20 points clear depending on results. 

 

This is where I am getting stuck..... 

 

If the others keep taking points off each other up until 6th march at our home game vs Dundee if we beat them can we win the league next week 13th march at home vs Ayr United on the TV?? 

 

You didn’t get the Results right but you we only one week out. 😀

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davemclaren
2 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Today's update with Alloa's relegation confirmed. 🤣

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 24 50 9 59 2.08 56.25
Raith 25 43 6 49 1.72 46.44
Dundee 24 38 9 47 1.58 42.75
Dunfermline 25 36 6 42 1.44 38.88
ICT 24 34 9 43 1.42 38.25
QOTS 25 31 6 37 1.24 33.48
Arbroath 25 29 6 35 1.16 31.32
Ayr 25 27 6 33 1.08 29.16
Morton 24 26 9 35 1.08 29.25
Alloa (Rel) 25 18 6 24 0.72 19.44

Looks like 45 points might not have been enough after all. 😎

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It's been a rough season with covid and playing in empty stadiums. We should remember that a lot of teams were hit harder than us and blah blah blah

 

GIRFUY Alloa, hope this is the start of them folding

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Saint Jambo
11 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Looks like 45 points might not have been enough after all. 😎

 

In one sense it definitely wouldn't have been, if we are thinking about when Hearts were on 45 points and some posters were suggesting it might well be enough. That was contingent on us losing all our games, so losing against Raith on the final day of the season. If we do that, Raith will now definitely finish above 45 points.

Edited by Saint Jambo
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On 17/04/2021 at 16:26, davemclaren said:

You didn’t get the Results right but you we only one week out. 😀

Overall I am happy with that. Bottom line we are up. 

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I just hope our players don't bounce up and down in ecstasy when the trophy is presented.

 

Can't believe Celtic do that when they've basically bought the trophies for most of their history.

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davemclaren
3 hours ago, Kiwidoug said:

I just hope our players don't bounce up and down in ecstasy when the trophy is presented.

 

Can't believe Celtic do that when they've basically bought the trophies for most of their history.

They’ve been told not to smile. 🙁

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Footballfirst

As you were!

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 25 51 6 57 2.04 55.08
Raith 25 43 6 49 1.72 46.44
Dundee 25 39 6 45 1.56 42.12
Dunfermline 25 36 6 42 1.44 38.88
ICT 25 35 6 41 1.40 37.80
QOTS 25 31 6 37 1.24 33.48
Arbroath 25 29 6 35 1.16 31.32
Ayr 25 27 6 33 1.08 29.16
Morton 25 27 6 33 1.08 29.16
Alloa (Rel) 25 18 6 24 0.72 19.44
Edited by Footballfirst
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Jambo 4 Ever
On 31/01/2021 at 17:41, Locky said:

Wishful thinking Restonbabe. I predict we'll not mathematically win the title until we play Morton away.

Almost right 

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August Landmesser
2 hours ago, maroonsgotop said:

guaranteed to win the league by at least 2 points 

Which is pitiful. What a fiasco of a season this has been.

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davemclaren
12 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

As you were!

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 25 51 6 57 2.04 55.08
Raith 25 43 6 49 1.72 46.44
Dundee 25 39 6 45 1.56 42.12
Dunfermline 25 36 6 42 1.44 38.88
ICT 25 35 6 41 1.40 37.80
QOTS 25 31 6 37 1.24 33.48
Arbroath 25 29 6 35 1.16 31.32
Ayr 25 27 6 33 1.08 29.16
Morton 25 27 6 33 1.08 29.16
Alloa (Rel) 25 18 6 24 0.72 19.44

How is our PPG comparing now to previous championship winners. I think you had a comparison previously. 

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Footballfirst
38 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

How is our PPG comparing now to previous championship winners. I think you had a comparison previously. 

I didn't produce a comparison previously but here is one anyway.

 

Season Champion P Pts PPG
2011/12 Ross Co. 36 79 2.19
2012/13 Partick 36 78 2.17
2013/14 Dundee 36 69 1.92
2014/15 Hearts  36 91 2.53
2015/16 Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016/17 Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017/18 St Mirren 36 74 2.06
2018/19 Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019/20 Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020/21 Hearts  25 51 2.04
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davemclaren
3 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I didn't produce a comparison previously but here is one anyway.

 

Season Champion P Pts PPG
2011/12 Ross Co. 36 79 2.19
2012/13 Partick 36 78 2.17
2013/14 Dundee 36 69 1.92
2014/15 Hearts  36 91 2.53
2015/16 Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016/17 Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017/18 St Mirren 36 74 2.06
2018/19 Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019/20 Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020/21 Hearts  25 51 2.04

Thanks. I wasn’t sure it was you but knew you wouldn’t be able to resist a spreadsheet challenge. 😂
 

Need to win our next two games to keep it respectable. 

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indianajones
11 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I didn't produce a comparison previously but here is one anyway.

 

Season Champion P Pts PPG
2011/12 Ross Co. 36 79 2.19
2012/13 Partick 36 78 2.17
2013/14 Dundee 36 69 1.92
2014/15 Hearts  36 91 2.53
2015/16 Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016/17 Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017/18 St Mirren 36 74 2.06
2018/19 Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019/20 Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020/21 Hearts  25 51 2.04

 

How do we have a better PPG average than Hibs in 16/17?

 

Its very hard to believe considering how utter pish we have been. 

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davemclaren
26 minutes ago, indianajones said:

 

How do we have a better PPG average than Hibs in 16/17?

 

Its very hard to believe considering how utter pish we have been. 

Pish is a relative concept. 

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davemclaren
2 hours ago, BarneyBattles said:

 

We also have a much better goals per game average too (2.24 to their 1.64). Hibs won 19 games and scored 59 goals in 36 games. We've won 15 games and scored 56 goals in 25 games. 

 

We've been generally woeful but hopefully you can use these stats if any hibbies are on the wind up :) 

Some good news...at last. 

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davemclaren
4 minutes ago, BarneyBattles said:

 

Indeed. Might celebrate with a Chinese take-away tonight. Hope Robbie Neilson doesn't pass my window when I'm eating it.

Noodle out. 

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Footballfirst

Playoff places confirmed.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 26 54 3 57 2.08 56.08
Raith 26 43 3 46 1.65 44.65
Dundee 26 42 3 45 1.62 43.62
Dunfermline 26 39 3 42 1.50 40.50
ICT 26 35 3 38 1.35 36.35
QOTS 26 32 3 35 1.23 33.23
Arbroath 26 29 3 32 1.12 30.12
Ayr 26 28 3 31 1.08 29.08
Morton 26 28 3 31 1.08 29.08
Alloa (Rel) 26 19 3 22 0.73 19.73
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Footballfirst

Final table.

Playoffs Raith or Dunfermline v Dundee

Morton into the relegation playoff

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 27 57 0 57 2.11 57.00
Dundee 27 45 0 45 1.67 45.00
Raith 27 43 0 43 1.59 43.00
Dunfermline 27 39 0 39 1.44 39.00
ICT 27 36 0 36 1.33 36.00
QOTS 27 32 0 32 1.19 32.00
Arbroath 27 30 0 30 1.11 30.00
Ayr 27 29 0 29 1.07 29.00
Morton 27 29 0 29 1.07 29.00
Alloa (Rel) 27 22 0 22 0.81 22.00
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August Landmesser
4 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Final table.

Playoffs Raith or Dunfermline v Dundee

Morton into the relegation playoff

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 27 57 0 57 2.11 57.00
Dundee 27 45 0 45 1.67 45.00
Raith 27 43 0 43 1.59 43.00
Dunfermline 27 39 0 39 1.44 39.00
ICT 27 36 0 36 1.33 36.00
QOTS 27 32 0 32 1.19 32.00
Arbroath 27 30 0 30 1.11 30.00
Ayr 27 29 0 29 1.07 29.00
Morton 27 29 0 29 1.07 29.00
Alloa (Rel) 27 22 0 22 0.81 22.00

Would fancy Falkirk or Cove to beat Morton, don't know how 'Airdrie' are playing

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davemclaren
42 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Final table.

Playoffs Raith or Dunfermline v Dundee

Morton into the relegation playoff

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts (Ch) 27 57 0 57 2.11 57.00
Dundee 27 45 0 45 1.67 45.00
Raith 27 43 0 43 1.59 43.00
Dunfermline 27 39 0 39 1.44 39.00
ICT 27 36 0 36 1.33 36.00
QOTS 27 32 0 32 1.19 32.00
Arbroath 27 30 0 30 1.11 30.00
Ayr 27 29 0 29 1.07 29.00
Morton 27 29 0 29 1.07 29.00
Alloa (Rel) 27 22 0 22 0.81 22.00

Big ask but could you redo the winners PPG table you did and order it from high to low? 😄

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Footballfirst
18 minutes ago, davemclaren said:

Big ask but could you redo the winners PPG table you did and order it from high to low? 😄

The last 10 years winners sorted by PPG.

 

Season Champion P Pts PPG
2014/15 Hearts  36 91 2.53
2015/16 Rangers 36 81 2.25
2011/12 Ross Co 36 79 2.19
2012/13 Partick 36 78 2.17
2020/21 Hearts  27 57 2.11
2019/20 Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2017/18 St Mirren 36 74 2.06
2016/17 Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2018/19 Ross Co 36 71 1.97
2013/14 Dundee 36 69 1.92
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davemclaren
Just now, Footballfirst said:

The last 10 years winners sorted by PPG.

 

Season Champion P Pts PPG
2014/15 Hearts  36 91 2.53
2015/16 Rangers 36 81 2.25
2011/12 Ross Co 36 79 2.19
2012/13 Partick 36 78 2.17
2020/21 Hearts  27 57 2.11
2019/20 Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2017/18 St Mirren 36 74 2.06
2016/17 Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2018/19 Ross Co 36 71 1.97
2013/14 Dundee 36 69 1.92

Thanks. 

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Guest ToqueJambo
21 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The last 10 years winners sorted by PPG.

 

Season Champion P Pts PPG
2014/15 Hearts  36 91 2.53
2015/16 Rangers 36 81 2.25
2011/12 Ross Co 36 79 2.19
2012/13 Partick 36 78 2.17
2020/21 Hearts  27 57 2.11
2019/20 Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2017/18 St Mirren 36 74 2.06
2016/17 Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2018/19 Ross Co 36 71 1.97
2013/14 Dundee 36 69 1.92

 

 

That 14/15 season really was a much better achievement than it's often credited with, all things considered. Great to see Hearts Neilson giving D Utd Neilson a big GIRUY by equalling their pretendy title PPG in a similar # of games and without needing to go into 3m in debt and sign Lawrence Shankland to do it.

 

Goals scored is interesting too:

 

Hearts - 96

Rangers - 88

Thistle - 76

RC- 72

Hearts - 63 (27 games)

RC - 63

St Mirren - 63

Hibs - 59 (Flair 🤣)

Dundee - 54

D Utd - 52 (28 games)

 

Outscored Hibs with 9 fewer games

 

Edited by ToqueJambo
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jamboinglasgow
12 minutes ago, ToqueJambo said:

 

 

That 14/15 season really was a much better achievement than it's often credited with, all things considered. Great to see Hearts Neilson giving D Utd Neilson a big GIRUY by equalling their pretendy title PPG in a similar # of games and without needing to go into 3m in debt and sign Lawrence Shankland to do it.

 

Goals scored is interesting too:

 

Hearts - 96

Rangers - 88

Thistle - 76

RC- 72

Hearts - 63 (27 games)

RC - 63

St Mirren - 63

Hibs - 59 (Flair 🤣)

Dundee - 54

D Utd - 52 (28 games)

 

Outscored Hibs with 9 fewer games

 

 

If we continued at our goal per game ratio (2.33) in a 36 game season, then we would have finished with 84 goals. 

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Saint Jambo
On 27/03/2021 at 17:12, 1902hewat said:

We will not win this league

We will lose all renaming games

Raith will win league

we will get by Dunfermline in the playoffs 

said this before say it again 

 

 

Anyone wanting a laugh could do worse than jumping back to page 9 of this thread and reading some of the absolute hysteria about the chances of us blowing the league. Between the QotS and Dunfermline games. Posters claiming there was no way that we were going to take another point and other teams were going to go on amazing runs. In the end it turned out we had already done enough by that stage, then went on to finish the season as the form side in the league.

 

There were a lot of claims that we were lucky it was a 27 game season because if it had gone on any longer, the chasing pack was going to reel us in. In reality we extended our lead over everyone else in the league over the final five games (the only team to win 3 of our last 5 games).

 

(Last time I failed to mention that when pointing out why us losing the league was a fantasy, someone immediately responded by suggesting I thought everything was fine, so I guess I need to caveat this post by saying this doesn't mean I think everything is rosy, that we shouldn't have picked up more points this season, or that Neilson has done a good this season.)

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Guest ToqueJambo
8 minutes ago, Saint Jambo said:

 

Anyone wanting a laugh could do worse than jumping back to page 9 of this thread and reading some of the absolute hysteria about the chances of us blowing the league. Between the QotS and Dunfermline games. Posters claiming there was no way that we were going to take another point and other teams were going to go on amazing runs. In the end it turned out we had already done enough by that stage, then went on to finish the season as the form side in the league.

 

There were a lot of claims that we were lucky it was a 27 game season because if it had gone on any longer, the chasing pack was going to reel us in. In reality we extended our lead over everyone else in the league over the final five games (the only team to win 3 of our last 5 games).

 

(Last time I failed to mention that when pointing out why us losing the league was a fantasy, someone immediately responded by suggesting I thought everything was fine, so I guess I need to caveat this post by saying this doesn't mean I think everything is rosy, that we shouldn't have picked up more points this season, or that Neilson has done a good this season.)

 

I know I cried myself to sleep over Raith's games in hand. With laughter!

 

I also caveat that not everything is fine, mostly in the cups. The stats above show that, even this season, we made a better fist of winning this league than teams with similar or greater advantages to us. Well, one team in particular - Hibs.

Edited by ToqueJambo
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Lord Beni of Gorgie
On 31/01/2021 at 21:35, Sir Gio said:

In truth we probably only need 6 more wins 

4 would have done as of 1st February. 

 

Which kind of demonstrates how easy this was.

 

Hindsight and all that eh.

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