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Mathematically calculating when we wrap up the league


Restonbabe

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9 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

I know what you mean, Dundee could have stopped anything then sold themselves for the cheapest price. Raith's chairman destroyed years of good will between Hearts fans and Raith in a very short time. I would love it if QotS got into the play-offs, they did vote against us but there is nothing else I can really think of they did. 

 

Really want Ross County down.

I want Ross County relegated as well. Would ideally like it to be in the play offs in injury time and a penalty that shouldn’t have been awarded. Maximum pain and appropriate dose of medicine. As unfair on them as it possibly could be. 

Edited by GinRummy
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45 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

As much as I would like to see those in the Championship miss out, the teams in the Premiership are the ones I would like to see suffer more.

Unless its Dundee , Dunfermline or Raith Rovers , hmmmm 🤔 #****emall

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I don't think there'd be much difference between Dunfermline, Dundee and Raith in the Premier than having shit like Hamilton, St Mirren and Ross County in there. Proves though that if the powers that be had considered a reconstruction to 16 teams, them and us would've made up the 16. The next League down would still be an interesting League with the likes of Falkirk, Morton, QoS, Ayr Utd etc fighting it out for promotion. This would be the only way some of those clubs would ever get into the top League. I mean, if fans were allowed in to grounds as normal, what games would attract more away fans out of a Hearts v Dundee game or a Hearts v Hamilton game? 

Anyway, as it stands at the moment...i'd happily see any of the Premier hangers-on relegated. Whether that's St Mirren, Hamilton, St Johnstone or Ross County....don't care. They bring nothing to the Premier that the better teams in the Championship couldn't. 

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Ford Prentice

I want to see Kilmarnock down  because they have a plastic pitch and Killie fan Craig Anderson from the Terrace podcast is an annoying **** who has revelled in out demotion (the other Terrace guys are fine and both podcast and TV show are good).

 

Failing that Hamilton Accies, both their ground and pitch are a disgrace. 

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Bazzas right boot
3 hours ago, Pasquale for King said:

When we win the league in a few weeks it will interesting and conflicting watching the playoffs, can’t stand any of the teams involved. Probably better for one these crap teams to come up with us and go straight back down again 😆

 

 

Yip, and they'll be playing a Premier club that we also hate, be strange. 

 

For me it will be a Bit like watching rangers play hibs. 😜

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Bazzas right boot
1 hour ago, Ford Prentice said:

I want to see Kilmarnock down  because they have a plastic pitch and Killie fan Craig Anderson from the Terrace podcast is an annoying **** who has revelled in out demotion (the other Terrace guys are fine and both podcast and TV show are good).

 

Failing that Hamilton Accies, both their ground and pitch are a disgrace. 

 

 

Hamilton are just an abomination, thier presence in the top flight says more about Scottish football being shite even more than 2 clubs dominanting it. 

 

Shite pitch. 

Shite stadium. 

No season ticket holders and on a good season about 600.

Even their ****ing strip makes them look like a amateur outfit. 

 

Gave me one of my funbiest6ever football moments tho, so he ho. 

 

 

 

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Bazzas right boot
5 hours ago, davemclaren said:

The only way to win a final is to get to one or more. 😄

 

You're on to something there. 

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spirt of 98
7 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

All fine, but don't state your opinion as fact, especially when predicting the future. 

 

It as you say - about opinions and mine is your facts were a lot of wind and pish. 

Or else what? 
 

Why who put you in charge? 
 

 

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Bazzas right boot
9 minutes ago, spirt of 98 said:

Or else what? 
 

Why who put you in charge? 
 

 

 

 

Or else someone will call you out on your bull shite and you'll get all upset and end up in a rage. 

 

Why Who never put me me in charge, I don't know anyone by that name. 

 

 

Edited by Smith's right boot
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1 hour ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Hamilton are just an abomination, thier presence in the top flight says more about Scottish football being shite even more than 2 clubs dominanting it. 

 

Shite pitch. 

Shite stadium. 

No season ticket holders and on a good season about 600.

Even their ****ing strip makes them look like a amateur outfit. 

 

Gave me one of my funbiest6ever football moments tho, so he ho. 

 

Shithole of a town as well.

1 hour ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

 

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Footballfirst

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95
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jamboinglasgow
11 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95

 

I do enjoy every time this comes up now.

 

Also if Dundee lose at the weekend and we win, then they cant get more points than us and we have a +28 better goal difference.

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4 hours ago, spirt of 98 said:

Or else what? 
 

Why who put you in charge? 
 

 

🤷🏿‍♂️ How odd.

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spirt of 98
5 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Or else someone will call you out on your bull shite and you'll get all upset and end up in a rage. 

 

Why Who never put me me in charge, I don't know anyone by that name. 

 

 

Did ye aye 

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credit card
16 hours ago, Smith's right boot said:

 

 

Hamilton are just an abomination, thier presence in the top flight says more about Scottish football being shite even more than 2 clubs dominanting it. 

 

Shite pitch. 

Shite stadium. 

No season ticket holders and on a good season about 600.

Even their ****ing strip makes them look like a amateur outfit. 

 

Gave me one of my funbiest6ever football moments tho, so he ho. 

 

 

 

How could you miss out their pies are rotten.

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23 hours ago, Footballfirst said:

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 

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Lone Striker
1 hour ago, topcat said:

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 

👍

 

An interesting comparison of the winning points totals in the Championship -

 

      Games Points PPG
2014-15   Hearts 36 91 2.53
2015-16   Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016-17   Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017-18   St. Mirren  36 74 2.06
2018-19   Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019-20   Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020-21   Hearts 20 45 2.25

 

Our PPG last time was the best ever by a long way.  If we can win another 16 points (or more) from the remaining 7 games - i.e. 5 wins and one draw - we'd beat Rangers PPG from 2015-16.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Lone Striker said:

👍

 

An interesting comparison of the winning points totals in the Championship -

 

      Games Points PPG
2014-15   Hearts 36 91 2.53
2015-16   Rangers 36 81 2.25
2016-17   Hibernian 36 71 1.97
2017-18   St. Mirren  36 74 2.06
2018-19   Ross Co. 36 71 1.97
2019-20   Dundee Utd 28 59 2.11
2020-21   Hearts 20 45 2.25

 

Our PPG last time was the best ever by a long way.  If we can win another 16 points (or more) from the remaining 7 games - i.e. 5 wins and one draw - we'd beat Rangers PPG from 2015-16.

 

 


since 2000 the only other team, aside from Rangers 2016, to come vaguely close to our 2015 side is Falkirk 2003 who got 81 points from 36 as well
 

Basically no other club this century  has done significantly better than Hearts are doing now

 

Looking even further back Three points for a win only came in in 1994  St Johnstone got 80 in 1997 and the only better ratio  than that is 2.47 For Hibs 89 Pts in 1999. 17 points from the last 7 games would see us beat that

 

A lot of the frustration we're all feeling this season is that we inevitably compare this season with 2015 as it's our only direct experience
 

The sooner we accept that this is normal and it's 2015 was very special as opposed to the other way round the calmer we'll be

 


 

 

Edited by topcat
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Jambo in Bathgate
12 hours ago, topcat said:


since 2000 the only other team, aside from Rangers 2016, to come vaguely close to our 2015 side is Falkirk 2003 who got 81 points from 36 as well
 

Basically no other club this century  has done significantly better than Hearts are doing now

 

Looking even further back Three points for a win only came in in 1994  St Johnstone got 80 in 1997 and the only better ratio  than that is 2.47 For Hibs 89 Pts in 1999. 17 points from the last 7 games would see us beat that

 

A lot of the frustration we're all feeling this season is that we inevitably compare this season with 2015 as it's our only direct experience
 

The sooner we accept that this is normal and it's 2015 was very special as opposed to the other way round the calmer we'll be

 


 

We had a group of young players who went through the mill the previous season. This helped them bond. They were augmented by good signings for the Championship. There won’t be another season like that it was as you say very special. 

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upgotheheads
On 16/03/2021 at 20:58, Footballfirst said:

Table after this evening's games.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
Dundee 19 27 24 51 1.42 38.37
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 20 17 21 38 0.85 22.95

 

As the league stand bottom three can't catch us.

If we win on Saturday bottom five  can't catch us.

 

 

There's lots of ways of having fun with the numbers here. 

Edited by upgotheheads
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1 hour ago, upgotheheads said:

If we win on Saturday bottom five  can't catch us.


Inverness and Ayr are 21 points back with 21 to play for so a draw would do

And as Inverness still have to play Ayr they can't both get to 45 

So we're mathematically top 6 already

 

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jamboinglasgow
2 minutes ago, topcat said:


Inverness and Ayr are 21 points back with 21 to play for so a draw would do

And as Inverness still have to play Ayr they can't both get to 45 

So we're mathematically top 6 already

 

 

Even if we lose, those teams have to win to be able to reach us. If we win and QotS dont then we are at least in the play-offs (or we draw and QotS lose.)

 

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19 hours ago, topcat said:

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 

Like I predicted all along. Really wish I backed it when I said. 

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Hagar the Horrible
59 minutes ago, jamboinglasgow said:

 

Even if we lose, those teams have to win to be able to reach us. If we win and QotS dont then we are at least in the play-offs (or we draw and QotS lose.)

 

I think we are already in the play offs. If dundee win all games then RR the Pars and QoS cannot all catch us and Dundee have to beat them too. In fact i think we are in second place at worst mathematically. 

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Hagar the Horrible

For QoS to catch is they would have to win all games including Dundee which rules them out so top 4 is guaranteed there. They would have to beat the Pars which would also rule out RR. But as RR and the Pars play each other that would rule out one or both. So at worst as it stands we cannot finish worse than second. Not withstanding any wins against the dross just extends the gap. Its over. We wont lose every game. Just awaiting the coronation 

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jamboinglasgow
15 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

I think we are already in the play offs. If dundee win all games then RR the Pars and QoS cannot all catch us and Dundee have to beat them too. In fact i think we are in second place at worst mathematically. 

 

6 minutes ago, Hagar the Horrible said:

For QoS to catch is they would have to win all games including Dundee which rules them out so top 4 is guaranteed there. They would have to beat the Pars which would also rule out RR. But as RR and the Pars play each other that would rule out one or both. So at worst as it stands we cannot finish worse than second. Not withstanding any wins against the dross just extends the gap. Its over. We wont lose every game. Just awaiting the coronation 

 

Thanks, that is some good work there. Yeah definitely a case that we have effectively won it, just need to get to the mathematical point when it is won.

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Fort Vallance

Looking at the teams likely to make the playoffs from our league. None of them have got a hope in hell of beating Ross County, Kilmarnock or Hamilton in a play off.

Edited by Fort Vallance
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kingantti1874
20 hours ago, topcat said:

At their current PPG you'd expect Dunfermline to take 5 from their next 3 games, and Hearts to take 4.5  from the next 2 leaving the gap at 14 or 15 before we face each other. There will be 15 points to play for after that

So it all seems to be setting us up to win the title by winning at East End park. 

 

Despite our dip in form last month. It's still possible to get this over and done with before May.


If we win twice and the Pars only get a point out of Inverness and Dundee then Raith can hand us the title in the Fife derby 


it will be finished by fixtures 22. We will win both and the pars will drop points 

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1 hour ago, kingantti1874 said:


it will be finished by fixtures 22. We will win both and the pars will drop points 

 

But we'd need them to drop 7 points in three  games

Which is entirely possible  given that the games in question are inverness (H) , Dundee(A) & Raith(A)
but by no means certain.

 




 

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upgotheheads
3 hours ago, topcat said:


Inverness and Ayr are 21 points back with 21 to play for so a draw would do

And as Inverness still have to play Ayr they can't both get to 45 

So we're mathematically top 6 already

 

 

Brilliant.  I thought something like that would apply, but frankly I couldn't be arsed going though the numbers. Well done though.

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Footballfirst

Table after Alloa v Dungdee tonight.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 20 45 21 66 2.25 60.75
Dunfermline 18 30 27 57 1.67 45.00
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
Raith 19 29 24 53 1.53 41.21
QOTS 20 27 21 48 1.35 36.45
ICT 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Ayr 20 24 21 45 1.20 32.40
Morton 20 22 21 43 1.10 29.70
Arbroath 20 21 21 42 1.05 28.35
Alloa 21 17 18 35 0.81 21.86
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Footballfirst

The latest update following today's borefest.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 21 46 18 64 2.19 59.14
Dunfermline 19 30 24 54 1.58 42.63
Raith 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
ICT 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
QOTS 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
Ayr 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Morton 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Arbroath 21 22 18 40 1.05 28.29
Alloa 21 17 18 35 0.81 21.86
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Hagar the Horrible
2 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The latest update following today's borefest.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 21 46 18 64 2.19 59.14
Dunfermline 19 30 24 54 1.58 42.63
Raith 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
ICT 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
QOTS 21 27 18 45 1.29 34.71
Ayr 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Morton 21 25 18 43 1.19 32.14
Arbroath 21 22 18 40 1.05 28.29
Alloa 21 17 18 35 0.81 21.86

With the Pars having 2 games in hand against RR and Dundee, they are now jockeying for the playoffs, ICT can come into this as they can catch all, just not us.  It was already arithmaticaly impossible for us not to be in the paly-offs but the table now shows that.  You would think we can relax and just play without fear, but Robbie is preparing us to park the bus, cars, trikes, mopeds and roller-skates for next season

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Got a bad feeling Dunfermline away will be the game to clinch the title, which they'll love hoping Hearts fans will snap up their PPV. 😐🖕

 

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2 hours ago, neilnunb said:

Got a bad feeling Dunfermline away will be the game to clinch the title, which they'll love hoping Hearts fans will snap up their PPV. 😐🖕

 

Don’t know about anyone else, but I certainly won’t.

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jamboinglasgow

Interesting to see Dunfermline's next 3 games is Dundee (A), Raith (A) and then us (H).

 

A win for us and a loss for Dundee and Raith puts them out of reach, even if they get a draw they will be level in points but (at the moment) Raith are behind our goal difference by 20 goals and Dundee by 25 goals, so would have to overhaul that goal difference in 6 games.

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17 hours ago, neilnunb said:

Got a bad feeling Dunfermline away will be the game to clinch the title, which they'll love hoping Hearts fans will snap up their PPV. 😐🖕

 

 

Someone said Dunfermline game is postponed if we beat Brora as that's next round of Cup.

 

Dunfermline game v Dundee doesn't have a new date yet. We might play rearranged game after we've won league. 

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Ex member of the SaS

No matter how unlikely, there is still a minute mathematical possibility that any one of the three teams below us could still gain more points than us. Games are slipping away and after yesterday's debacle we are only putting ourselves under undue pressure, games like that we SHOULD be winning comfortably. The old saying never count your chickens has never been more apt.

 

Hearts, six games left possible 18 points.

Raith seven games left possible 21 points

Dunfy eight games left possible 24 points

Dundee seven games left possible 21 points.

 

Should we lose all our games we would stay on 46

Should Raith win all their games 51 points

Should Dunfy win all their games 54 points

Should Dundee win all their games 51 points

 

Now, no matter how unlikely any of this has of coming to pass you can never say never. Been in situations where the most unlikely outcome has happened and I am never willing to say this or that will happen as you never know. Check out St Midden for example.

Basically all I am saying is until the figures say otherwise it's foolish to assume ( assume, makes an ass out of u and me. ) we have won the league.

PPG doesn't come into it unless the pull the plug early which I can't see happening, unless things go really badly after this afternoon's OF encounter.

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Hagar the Horrible
38 minutes ago, Ex member of the SaS said:

No matter how unlikely, there is still a minute mathematical possibility that any one of the three teams below us could still gain more points than us. Games are slipping away and after yesterday's debacle we are only putting ourselves under undue pressure, games like that we SHOULD be winning comfortably. The old saying never count your chickens has never been more apt.

 

Hearts, six games left possible 18 points.

Raith seven games left possible 21 points

Dunfy eight games left possible 24 points

Dundee seven games left possible 21 points.

 

Should we lose all our games we would stay on 46

Should Raith win all their games 51 points

Should Dunfy win all their games 54 points

Should Dundee win all their games 51 points

 

Now, no matter how unlikely any of this has of coming to pass you can never say never. Been in situations where the most unlikely outcome has happened and I am never willing to say this or that will happen as you never know. Check out St Midden for example.

Basically all I am saying is until the figures say otherwise it's foolish to assume ( assume, makes an ass out of u and me. ) we have won the league.

PPG doesn't come into it unless the pull the plug early which I can't see happening, unless things go really badly after this afternoon's OF encounter.

Its not unlikely its impossible they play each other.  1 team would have to beat the other 2. Thus ruling them out. Plus those games in hand are against each other in the play offs. 1 team needs to do the improbable by winning all their games while as uninterested as we are wont loose every single game. There is nothing between the other clubs so the chances of one turning into Man City is beyond reprehension. No side will match our current points tally let alone better the ppg we have left. We wont lose every game. We could still come out of neutral get up to second gear and win. Arithmatically the worst we can finish is second. Its over not because we have won it but everyone else lost it because they are as shite as each other. 

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davemclaren
1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

Dunfermline v Hearts 3 April goes ahead. 

Hopefully seal our top league position then. 😩

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Footballfirst

Update after the latest debacle.

 

  P Pts Avail Max PPG Pts @ PPG
Hearts 22 46 15 61 2.09 56.45
Raith 21 33 18 51 1.57 42.43
Dunfermline 19 30 24 54 1.58 42.63
ICT 22 30 15 45 1.36 36.82
Dundee 20 30 21 51 1.50 40.50
QOTS 22 30 15 45 1.36 36.82
Ayr 22 26 15 41 1.18 31.91
Morton 22 25 15 40 1.14 30.68
Arbroath 22 22 15 37 1.00 27.00
Alloa 22 18 15 33 0.82 22.09
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Lone Striker

Judging from our last 3 games, it looks like we'll be limping over the line sometime in late April - at best.   Desperate stuff.

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On 31/01/2021 at 17:14, Restonbabe said:

I believe I've been doing some bad math. Looking for someone to help me... 

13 games left 

Next 9 as follows         points 32

February 

 5th   A to Ayr              35

12th A to QoS.             38

20th H to morton        41

26th A to ICT.             44

March

 6th home to dundee.  47  

13th home to Ayr          50

20th away to Arbroath 

27th home to QoS

April 

 3rd away to Dunfermline 

 

Providing we win the remainder of these fixtures and the following happens  do we win the league in Dunfermline? 

 

February 

 3rd Raith vs dunfermline (dunf win) 

13th dunfermline v Dundee(Dundee)

20th February. 3 fixtures 

March 

5th raith vs dunfermline (raith) 

 

If these fixtures pan out like that on 6th March at home vs Dundee we can go 14-20 points clear depending on results. 

 

This is where I am getting stuck..... 

 

If the others keep taking points off each other up until 6th march at our home game vs Dundee if we beat them can we win the league next week 13th march at home vs Ayr United on the TV?? 

 

Don’t be too sure we are going to win it, we are away to Dunfermline in two weeks 

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6 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

You might have to consider renaming this thread 

Mods can we add "or not" to the title.😳

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