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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


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3 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I was slightly out of date red. It was the 2017 election.  Not last years one where the red wall came tumbling down. 😎

 

Get with the times, young man. :)

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1 hour ago, jonesy said:

I think we've now established that even just voting is scary.

 

So, perhaps we should just hand over the reigns to a triumvate of Sturgeon, Farage and Jim Jefferies. 

Now that would be interesting 😄

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11 hours ago, coconut doug said:

 

  You need to read the whole of this document to appreciate the situation properly. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926538/EDSSSBulletin2020wk41.pdf  Here's a quote from the document ► EDSSS indicators are likely to be an underestimation of number attendances as they are based on primary diagnosis only.
► The EDSSS should therefore be used to monitor trends in ED attendances and not numbers of ‘cases’.

 

The trend is upwards according to this document. Covid cases are rising. Deaths are 11% up on the 5 year average as well (ONS). Winter is very near. Not responding to this would be criminal.

Deaths for respiratory disease are average. Hospitals are no busier than normal. 

There appears to be no published risk assessment for another lockdown. 

Lockdown shows a criminal disregard for anything other than covid.

Deaths being up is the knock on effect from the first lockdown.

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12 hours ago, Victorian said:

 

It looks like a long drawn out process.  This wave absolutely needs to be suppressed now otherwise the scale of hospitalisations will,  by a magnitude,  overwhelm the hospitals.  After that it looks like a combination of vaccinations,  mass testing and ongoing social distancing / respiratory hygiene practices.  A combination of vaccinations and (hopefully) a building up and sustaining of population immunity.  

 

Vaccines and mass testing should be able to get us well on the way to where we briefly were during the summer.  Much more freedoms by this summer.  

 

Will we have to live with it?  Yes.  But there's enough of an arsenal in the future to ensure that we never have to return to this current quagmire.

The hospitals were not overwhelmed the first time. Why would they be overwhelmed now?

The vast majority of us don't need a vaccine. We have an immune system.

It's complete madness your way of thinking. I realise you can't see past what Sturgeon tells you but look at the bigger picture.

Mass testing? What good would that do with 93% false positives?! Just creates another reason to lock up healthy people again...

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8 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

I showed that this claim was untrue a few days ago. :D

 

Scottish votes to leave the EU in 2016: 1,018,322 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results).

 

Scottish votes for SNP in the 2019 UK general election: 1,242,380 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election).

 

Come on Enzo, a bit of research please...

 

Maybe you'll know the answer to my question above to Brian. How do they work that out, is it place of birth or self identification? There's a lot of Scots in England and Wales and similarly a lot of non-Scots in Scotland.

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7 hours ago, Back to 2005 said:

The hospitals were not overwhelmed the first time. Why would they be overwhelmed now?

The vast majority of us don't need a vaccine. We have an immune system.

It's complete madness your way of thinking. I realise you can't see past what Sturgeon tells you but look at the bigger picture.

Mass testing? What good would that do with 93% false positives?! Just creates another reason to lock up healthy people again...

 

More lives are being saved with a better understanding of the decease, along with drugs and treatments that aid the combat process, only negative, patients occupy beds much longer, hence the fear of being overwhelmed.

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
9 minutes ago, OBE said:

 

More lives are being saved with a better understanding of the decease, along with drugs and treatments that aid the combat process, only negative, patients occupy beds much longer, hence the fear of being overwhelmed.

 

what’s the average hospital stay this time compared to before ?

 

 

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
21 hours ago, doctor jambo said:

I wonder what the reaction would be if there was a proper release of statistics , instead of only one side.

 

You know the likes- bed occupancy rates this year compared to last,

ICU occupany this vs last

those kind of things?

Burnham was trying to put it out there - Liverpool was being shut down despite the fact their hospitals and ICU were no worse than they were this time last year.

Its generally the same patients admitted to hospital year after year with their chests- its just this year its with something different.

 

they must do modelling every year so let’s see previous years for all these key “metrics” - the ‘best’ and the ‘worst’ in the last 10 years

 

likewise deaths from respiratory disease (to put into some sort of context the horrific numbers which will be being piped through our tellys in the coming months)

 

imagine some previous years modelling showed a risk a of the nhs being “overwhelmed” in a period where funds were being diverted away from it  🙀

 

 

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50 minutes ago, OBE said:

 

More lives are being saved with a better understanding of the decease, along with drugs and treatments that aid the combat process, only negative, patients occupy beds much longer, hence the fear of being overwhelmed.

Every year there is an NHS crisis. 

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
19 minutes ago, jonesy said:

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/889273/Flu-crisis-winter-NHS-Dr-Nick-Scriven

 

From 2017 (okay, okay, it's the Daily Heil, but still...)

 

a funding google search will come up with some suggestion that the response to improving nhs supply would be through efficiencies and cutting waste (no doubt amongst other things not including shutting the world)

 

can hardly believe it :(

 

 

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1 hour ago, Samuel Camazzola said:

Not clicking on this. It looks like the link you'd find in a phishing email. 

We studied sources of variation between countries in per-capita mortality from COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus). Potential predictors of per-capita coronavirus-related mortality in 200 countries by May 9, 2020 were examined, including age, gender, obesity prevalence, temperature, urbanization, smoking, duration of the outbreak, lockdowns, viral testing, contact-tracing policies, and public mask-wearing norms and policies. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed. In univariate analysis, the prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, urbanization, and colder average country temperature was positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 196 countries, the duration of the outbreak in the country, and the proportion of the population aged 60 years or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, whereas duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all P < 0.001). Obesity and less stringent international travel restrictions were independently associated with mortality in a model which controlled for testing policy. Viral testing policies and levels were not associated with mortality. Internal lockdown was associated with a nonsignificant 2.4% reduction in mortality each week (P = 0.83). The association of contact-tracing policy with mortality was not statistically significant (P = 0.06). In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 16.2% each week, as compared with 61.9% each week in remaining countries. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

 

 

Edited by Jambo 4 Ever
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1 hour ago, MoncurMacdonaldMercer said:

 

what’s the average hospital stay this time compared to before ?

 

 

 

Senior health analyst (Manchester) on the radio explaining in layman's terms, one possibility of how the NHS could become overwhelmed. If the figures for the above question were declared, I'm sorry, I cannot recollect.

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Are the seven Nightingale hospitals being utilised at all? Last I saw was that they were remaining on standby but there were discussions about whether they could be used to help the NHS in other ways. That must’ve been at the end of September or beginning of October mind, haven’t seen anything since. 

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Samuel Camazzola
1 hour ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

We studied sources of variation between countries in per-capita mortality from COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus). Potential predictors of per-capita coronavirus-related mortality in 200 countries by May 9, 2020 were examined, including age, gender, obesity prevalence, temperature, urbanization, smoking, duration of the outbreak, lockdowns, viral testing, contact-tracing policies, and public mask-wearing norms and policies. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed. In univariate analysis, the prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, urbanization, and colder average country temperature was positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 196 countries, the duration of the outbreak in the country, and the proportion of the population aged 60 years or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, whereas duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all P < 0.001). Obesity and less stringent international travel restrictions were independently associated with mortality in a model which controlled for testing policy. Viral testing policies and levels were not associated with mortality. Internal lockdown was associated with a nonsignificant 2.4% reduction in mortality each week (P = 0.83). The association of contact-tracing policy with mortality was not statistically significant (P = 0.06). In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 16.2% each week, as compared with 61.9% each week in remaining countries. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

 

 

Just a ramble with little substance. 

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Dennis Reynolds

Hospitals being prepped to start rolling out vaccines in the next few weeks. A relative in the infectious disease ward was informed today. Frontline workers and over 85's first. Emergency use to be approved soon. Sadly I can't see how the Tories will be able to not **** this up somehow.

 

 

 

 

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There are 11,000 "severely sick" covid patients in English hospitals.  It was 2,000 at the start of last month.

 

Can the Mister Magoos of this thread understand the concept of unmanageable scale now?  

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Just now, Victorian said:

There are 11,000 "severely sick" covid patients in English hospitals.  It was 2,000 at the start of last month.

 

Can the Mister Magoos of this thread understand the concept of unmanageable scale now?  

Too many on here still don’t take it seriously enough and it really irritates me 

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Just now, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Too many on here still don’t take it seriously enough and it really irritates me 

You don't say!

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Samuel Camazzola
1 minute ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Too many on here still don’t take it seriously enough and it really irritates me 

Rz9nsU5GJQhZd1YptvLE=

 

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Dennis Reynolds
4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

It's like when I ask my son to make his bed. Somehow, that results in lego all over the floor, a biscuit trampled into the carpet, a fight with his brother and a knocked over plant pot. And no bed made. However, comparing the Tories to a six year old is unfair...on the six year old.

 

🤣🤣🤣

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18 minutes ago, LMc said:

Hospitals being prepped to start rolling out vaccines in the next few weeks. A relative in the infectious disease ward was informed today. Frontline workers and over 85's first. Emergency use to be approved soon. Sadly I can't see how the Tories will be able to not **** this up somehow.

 

 

 

 

 

Possibly tie in with the news that there is a small chance that the Oxford University Vaccine might be ready by Christmas.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-small-chance-covid-jab-will-be-ready-before-christmas-oxford-vaccine-boss-says-12123325

 

The Oxford Vaccine is sounding really promising.

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Just now, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Possibly tie in with the news that there is a small chance that the Oxford University Vaccine might be ready by Christmas.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-small-chance-covid-jab-will-be-ready-before-christmas-oxford-vaccine-boss-says-12123325

 

The Oxford Vaccine is sounding really promising.

 

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43 minutes ago, LMc said:

Hospitals being prepped to start rolling out vaccines in the next few weeks. A relative in the infectious disease ward was informed today. Frontline workers and over 85's first. Emergency use to be approved soon. Sadly I can't see how the Tories will be able to not **** this up somehow.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, heard this yesterday too

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Seymour M Hersh
1 hour ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Too many on here still don’t take it seriously enough and it really irritates me 

 

Well that's a Brucie Bonus!! 

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1 hour ago, Jambo 4 Ever said:

Too many on here still don’t take it seriously enough and it really irritates me 

It's serious enough for me to have two packs of Lem Sip max on standby should I be unfortunate enough to catch it.

 

Hands

Face 

Space

 

Let's stick to the governments advice on this.

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manaliveits105

we have to look at the weekly figures - it only seems to be Weds Thurs Friday figures that are accurate then we have weekend with registrars closed and it seems to take 2 days to catch up 

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1 hour ago, LMc said:

Hospitals being prepped to start rolling out vaccines in the next few weeks. A relative in the infectious disease ward was informed today. Frontline workers and over 85's first. Emergency use to be approved soon. Sadly I can't see how the Tories will be able to not **** this up somehow.

 

 

 

 

If you want something rolled out effectively and efficiently then the Army are the best bet. Clunky, bureaucratic public sector behemoths like the NHS and the Govt are best kept in the background 

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Governor Tarkin
11 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

One of my more compassionate moments

 

👍 Good advice always welcome, doc'.

 

5 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

If you want something rolled out effectively and efficiently then the Army are the best bet.

 

Especially if what you are rolling out are heavy tanks.

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Just now, Governor Tarkin said:

 

👍 Good advice always welcome, doc'.

 

 

Especially if what you are rolling out are heavy tanks.

😂. Absolutely Guv. Wouldn't let  Boris and Cummings loose in charge of a tank....unless it was to clear these eco warriors off the street.

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19 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

One of my more compassionate moments

Is your surname Mengeles by any chance ? :) 

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2 hours ago, Victorian said:

There are 11,000 "severely sick" covid patients in English hospitals.  It was 2,000 at the start of last month.

 

Can the Mister Magoos of this thread understand the concept of unmanageable scale now?  

Hospital bed occupancy stands at 84% against 92% this time last year. This information should be made publicly available for context, rather than requiring to be leaked. Hospitals are in crisis every year due to respiratory viruses. The big difference this year is that we are getting a daily commentary on a selective set of figures. And there is a purpose to that, which some of us are now beginning to see through. 

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2 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:


Can you give a bit more context. 
 

im struggling to understand where 25% or so disappeared to.

Yeah me too. But thats what a guy said on the daily briefing. 

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The Mighty Thor

No significant improvement after weeks of restrictive measures. A huge number of deaths, even allowing for weekend catch up, and infections still horsing on. 

 

Its not working. 

 

Its got to be time to review the schools and Uni's. 

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Pasquale for King
5 hours ago, Taffin said:

 

Maybe you'll know the answer to my question above to Brian. How do they work that out, is it place of birth or self identification? There's a lot of Scots in England and Wales and similarly a lot of non-Scots in Scotland.

They don’t, they don’t have the resources to cross check where folk come from. Scottish votes are those cast in this country. 

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Pasquale for King
3 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

No significant improvement after weeks of restrictive measures. A huge number of deaths, even allowing for weekend catch up, and infections still horsing on. 

 

Its not working. 

 

Its got to be time to review the schools and Uni's. 

That may well be the case but these deaths are film that caught it a few weeks back when new restrictions were put in place. Fingers crossed this the peak and cases will go down or more restrictions will surely follow. 

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2 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

26% were 60 years old then, bit of a worry if you are 60.

Not sure the ages are relevant.

More useful would be asking their clinicians if the death was a surprise .

 

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6 hours ago, Taffin said:

 

Maybe you'll know the answer to my question above to Brian. How do they work that out, is it place of birth or self identification? There's a lot of Scots in England and Wales and similarly a lot of non-Scots in Scotland.

 

When I used the term "Scottish vote", I was meaning "vote cast in Scotland".

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21 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Hospital bed occupancy stands at 84% against 92% this time last year. This information should be made publicly available for context, rather than requiring to be leaked. Hospitals are in crisis every year due to respiratory viruses. The big difference this year is that we are getting a daily commentary on a selective set of figures. And there is a purpose to that, which some of us are now beginning to see through. 

 

ACC5745D-7611-4CF7-8104-7958CE71D7B6.png

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7 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Not sure the ages are relevant.

More useful would be asking their clinicians if the death was a surprise .

 

 

EF4EBDAC-A39E-4AD3-8549-74A35487C683.png

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Governor Tarkin
30 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:


 

im struggling to understand where 25% or so disappeared to.

 

Doctor jambo's underground experimental laboratory would be my first guess.

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19 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

No significant improvement after weeks of restrictive measures. A huge number of deaths, even allowing for weekend catch up, and infections still horsing on. 

 

Its not working. 

 

Its got to be time to review the schools and Uni's. 

 

Cases have started dipping instead of continuing to rocket upwards. Hospitalisations run a couple of weeks behind the cases curve, with deaths a week or two further behind.

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