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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


CJGJ

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11 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

I was staying at my parents when I was home in the summer for a 'stag do' (beers in the park). I socially distanced and wiped things down after I'd used them the next day when I was still at their home as I felt I'd increased my potential exposure on my day/night out. I think when you visit someone it's a different ball game as your going into their home and safe space (for lack of a better phrase). 


Social distance strippers? 

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2 minutes ago, Des Lynam said:


Social distance strippers? 

 

😂 Sadly I couldn't go in as I'd forgotten my mask...

 

Tamest stag do ever, rounders in Queens park and tins of beer. Good fun though and nobody got ill to our knowledge.

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Nucky Thompson
5 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

In March and April the virus had been spreading unknown for who knows how long in the community. 
 

The first confirmed community death in the U.K. is now February not March as was previously believed. 
 

what we have now that we did not have then is widespread community testing for symptomatic people. Back then they were only testing specific people. 

Yeah I know. The person I replied to was quoting daily hospital admissions.

I could go to hospital tomorrow worried about covid. They would put me in a day bed, check me over and send me home with paracetamol and I would still be classed as a covid admission.

The stat to maybe look at is 1000 being treated in a hospital bed compared to 20,000 in April

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Weakened Offender
37 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

2,4,6,8 weeks or the end of Winter. Delete as appropriate.

 

FFS. You're the guy who wants a full lockdown to spite folk on a forum that you have never met in real life :vrface:

 

I obviously don't. 😉

 

It's coming though. 😕

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11 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:


The problem with modelling if you are only ever see one model talked about/referred to in media. There will be hundreds with different parameters and outcomes. Modelling doesn’t tell you anything, in reality it’s just lots of scenarios,  it just helps with decision making. 
 

I’ll be honest it can’t be denied there is a concerning trend. That said additional restrictions have been in place that hopefully slow down or reverse the trend. 
 

The problem is lockdowns don’t actually solve anything. It’s not a solution. By govts own admission it’s a simple tool to use. The issue for me is they haven’t come up with a strategy that isn’t lockdown which has become just as damaging, if not more so, than the virus. 


 


Sadly modelling is all we have at the moment until we gain knowledge of how to treat it, control it and ultimately cure it where possible. Till then it’s trial and error. We know lockdown reduces the infections and death rates which is a good thing. We tweak it accordingly as we gain more knowledge about it and in the end we will have the model that works. 

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2 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:


Sadly modelling is all we have at the moment until we gain knowledge of how to treat it, control it and ultimately cure it where possible. Till then it’s trial and error. We know lockdown reduces the infections and death rates which is a good thing. We tweak it accordingly as we gain more knowledge about it and in the end we will have the model that works. 

Last week, 18 people died after an outbreak in one hospital in Greater Manchester. That represented a third of the total death toll in England that week. As was the case back in March/April the highest risk of fatalities is among those already in institutional settings such as care homes and hospitals. That's where resources and measures ahould be targetted while people in the community can take responsibility for their own health by taking sensible precautions 

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2 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Last week, 18 people died after an outbreak in one hospital in Greater Manchester. That represented a third of the total death toll in England that week. As was the case back in March/April the highest risk of fatalities is among those already in institutional settings such as care homes and hospitals. That's where resources and measures ahould be targetted while people in the community can take responsibility for their own health by taking sensible precautions 


My question to you is why are people dying in these places. Is it because people are not following the rules and adopting the measures in place. Someone must introduce the virus into these settings. How, I don’t know but I would hazard a guess people are not taking the necessary precautions. 

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1 minute ago, Boy Daniel said:


My question to you is why are people dying in these places. Is it because people are not following the rules and adopting the measures in place. Someone must introduce the virus into these settings. How, I don’t know but I would hazard a guess people are not taking the necessary precautions. 

Around here, North Lancashire, places like Manchester, Burnley, Blackburn ect are all about an hour and a half away, I drive through a lot of places like them going to and from jobs, the amount of people who have been carrying on as usual is a bloody scandal, it's no wonder folk are still dying. 

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Nucky Thompson
6 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:


My question to you is why are people dying in these places. Is it because people are not following the rules and adopting the measures in place. Someone must introduce the virus into these settings. How, I don’t know but I would hazard a guess people are not taking the necessary precautions. 

 

Edited by Nucky Thompson
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Weakened Offender
17 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Last week, 18 people died after an outbreak in one hospital in Greater Manchester. That represented a third of the total death toll in England that week. As was the case back in March/April the highest risk of fatalities is among those already in institutional settings such as care homes and hospitals. That's where resources and measures ahould be targetted while people in the community can take responsibility for their own health by taking sensible precautions 

 

Surely that 'model' relies upon the vast majority of the population being 'sensible?' 

 

Ever wondered why there's not too many experts pushing that theory? 

Edited by Weakened Offender
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8 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:


My question to you is why are people dying in these places. Is it because people are not following the rules and adopting the measures in place. Someone must introduce the virus into these settings. How, I don’t know but I would hazard a guess people are not taking the necessary precautions. 

Probably because, compared to 20 or 30 years ago, i.e pre-Tony Blair- hospitals are not nearly as clean. Yes, someone must bring the virus in but thats where it spreads and hits those who are most vulnerable. 

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8 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

but jury is out on other deaths such as cancer, heart attacks, suicide, domestic abuse etc etc. The likliehood is it increases these. 


That’s down to the NHS they have run for cover in most instances.

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Francis Albert
42 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:


Sadly modelling is all we have at the moment until we gain knowledge of how to treat it, control it and ultimately cure it where possible. Till then it’s trial and error. We know lockdown reduces the infections and death rates which is a good thing. We tweak it accordingly as we gain more knowledge about it and in the end we will have the model that works. 

Modelling is not all we have and never has been. Real doctors in the real not model world have done a lot to reduce the impact of Covid19. Doctors have learnt that forcing oxygen into victims lungs does more harm than good and have stopped doing it. Improvements in palliative care means most deaths are quick and painless with the result that Covid saves patients with serious underlying conditions from dying in often worse ways a few weeks later. A number of drugs have proved effective in reducing the impact of Covid19. Fatality rates of those admitted to ICU have fallen quite dramatically. We have I hope learnt that shovelling vulnerable people into care homes or patients who don't have Covid19 into wards full of people with Covid19 is not a good idea.

And we do not know that lock down reduces death rates and  infections. We certainly don't know if lock downs save lives in the longer term.

Edited by Francis Albert
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48 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:


No I don’t hide behind the sofa I take the necessary precautions when I’m out and about. 
The virus is doing irreplaceable damage to the economy only because at the moment there in sure fire way of dealing with it other than the advice we are give. Advice which you ignore and encourage others to ignore whilst have no reasonable alternative that doesn’t put people’s health and life in danger. Your answer is let’s open the doors and take what comes. That’s been obvious since you started posting on this thread. 

You see you are only bothered about covid deaths and dont care about anything else. So many stories now of people with cancer who were treatable but are now terminal. 

It's a coronavirus. We should deal with it like any other coronavirus.  You can hide people away but it wont go away.

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4 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

pre-Tony Blair- hospitals are not nearly as clean.

 They were caught out a few times by penny pinching with the NHS. The Tories cut backs set us on the back foot. The NHS Unfortunately tends to be a bottomless pit where money is concerned. However I would be happy to have paid more in income tax which would be invested in the NHS but increasing taxes is a no no for most governments. 

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4 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

You see you are only bothered about covid deaths and dont care about anything else.

 That’s an assumption you make but are totally wrong. 
I am well aware the NHS all but shut down where these other sickness were put on the back burner. I have had a few health issues myself which I and my wife have had to push the GPs to address. They did in the end and I’m feeling much better now. 

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6 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

 That’s an assumption you make but are totally wrong. 
I am well aware the NHS all but shut down where these other sickness were put on the back burner. I have had a few health issues myself which I and my wife have had to push the GPs to address. They did in the end and I’m feeling much better now. 

Pleased to hear that. Unfortunately its not always the case. 

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Weakened Offender
9 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

I would be happy to have paid more in income tax which would be invested in the NHS but increasing taxes is a no no for most governments. 

 

I suspect I'll soon be happily  living in a country where that happens., 😊

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7 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:

 That’s an assumption you make but are totally wrong. 
I am well aware the NHS all but shut down where these other sickness were put on the back burner. I have had a few health issues myself which I and my wife have had to push the GPs to address. They did in the end and I’m feeling much better now. 

Glad you're feeling better 👍

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Francis Albert
24 minutes ago, Boy Daniel said:


That’s down to the NHS they have run for cover in most instances.

To an extent. But it is also because the public has been scared so.much by the exaggerated risk.of Covid19 that many have not attended A&E OR GPs surgeries or routine and some more serious hospital appointments.

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41 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

Pleased to hear that.

 

35 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Glad you're feeling better 👍


Thanks guys. 
 

I have my wife to thank for knowing how to get the GPs to respond. She a Health Visitor and worked in GP surgeries for 30 years or so. She is also pretty clued up on health issues and I have a daughter in law who is training to be a GP. It’s not what you know it’s who you know and how to play the system in my case. Properly of course and without abusing it.

 

I recommend anyone who has health concerns to push the GPs  they are there to help whether they like it or not and they are well prepared to deal with patients in the surgeries and in a controlled manner. Eg full PPE and other safety precautions in place. 

Edited by Boy Daniel
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2 hours ago, Back to 2005 said:

That another of Ferguson's projections?... normally pretty accurate! 

 

 You're pretending you understand graphs again.

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1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Probably because, compared to 20 or 30 years ago, i.e pre-Tony Blair- hospitals are not nearly as clean. Yes, someone must bring the virus in but thats where it spreads and hits those who are most vulnerable. 

 

You seem to have a pronouncement on everything to do with this topic. Here we are as an infection control expert. Previously you have been wearing your virologists hat and telling us at regular intervals that the virus is weakening and that preventative measures don't work. Your Psychological perspectives have been invaluable too but surely you can't be an expert in behavioural sciences as well. 

    In that context it's perhaps not surprising that you should question the IQ of those who disagree with you and dismiss their reasoned arguments as scaremongering.

       Just because the numbers of deaths are less than they were does not entitle you to play god with peoples lives unless of course you are claiming to have the inside track on that as well.

          

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14 minutes ago, coconut doug said:

 

You seem to have a pronouncement on everything to do with this topic. Here we are as an infection control expert. Previously you have been wearing your virologists hat and telling us at regular intervals that the virus is weakening and that preventative measures don't work. Your Psychological perspectives have been invaluable too but surely you can't be an expert in behavioural sciences as well. 

    In that context it's perhaps not surprising that you should question the IQ of those who disagree with you and dismiss their reasoned arguments as scaremongering.

       Just because the numbers of deaths are less than they were does not entitle you to play god with peoples lives unless of course you are claiming to have the inside track on that as well.

          

Wtf you talking about? Modelling science where you can add as many zeros as you want to add weight to your argument is....reasoned?? But dealing with actual facts and evidence, and expressing an opinion makes me an expert??  Really?? And where do you start with the "playing god" bulls**t??  You know what, folk who want to shield are free to do so. They can stay indoors for the rest of their lives if they want.  Others who want to live their lives should,  equally be free to do do. Last time I looked, we lived in a democracy.

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4 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Wtf you talking about? Modelling science where you can add as many zeros as you want to add weight to your argument is....reasoned?? But dealing with actual facts and evidence, and expressing an opinion makes me an expert??  Really?? And where do you start with the "playing god" bulls**t??  You know what, folk who want to shield are free to do so. They can stay indoors for the rest of their lives if they want.  Others who want to live their lives should,  equally be free to do do. Last time I looked, we lived in a democracy.

 

Nobody adds as many zeros as they want. Where's your facts that the disease is weakening? How do you know what the future effects of the current upturn are going to be? How do you know that shielding will work, how severe it will have to be to ensure protection for our vulnerable? Are you able to calculate the costs and benefits of every gradation between business as usual and full lockdown? People don't want to shield and don't want to "stay indoors for the rest of their lives" as you suggest they might do. If they can't have full normality they want some semblance of it and you don't have the right to deny it to them.

             Last time you looked we lived in a democracy well what does that mean for you? You are telling us that you should be allowed to do what you want but that's not what happens in a democracy. Nobody asked me or anybody else if it was O.K. for certain sections of the community to carry on regardless, undermining our pandemic control strategy and risking lives to satisfy their wishes to exert personal freedom. What happens in a democracy is we vote for people who are supposed to act in our best interests. We live in a representative democracy and in Scotland that means on this issue the SNP and NS are in charge. Very annoyingly for you the vast majority of people in Scotland think NS is doing a good job. When she loses public support she might be forced to change the policy. Last time i looked that's how democracy is supposed to work.

        

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7 hours ago, Bull's-eye said:

I've got 2 Hearts masks and wear them pretty much 24/7. 

While ones being sanitised I wear the other. 

 

I look fantastic. 

Here, blow this. 🎺

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7 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Last week, 18 people died after an outbreak in one hospital in Greater Manchester. That represented a third of the total death toll in England that week. As was the case back in March/April the highest risk of fatalities is among those already in institutional settings such as care homes and hospitals. That's where resources and measures ahould be targetted while people in the community can take responsibility for their own health by taking sensible precautions 

So when Hitler appeared in Poland, do you think everyone should have just said, No! It'll cost too many lives and cost a fortune. Or feck it! Let's get intae him, because otherwise it'll cost more lives. After all it took 60 years to pay back the USA the billions we borrowed off them. And I'm sure we can pay back whatever it takes to beat Covid 19.

At the end of the day, we do what we must for the good of the many, not for you or I. 

Edited by ri Alban
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7 hours ago, Robbofan99 said:

Yes, thanks Robbo. That's a good read and an interesting analysis from frontline doctors.  Particularly, the parts about a large section of the community already having a degree of immunity and the media scare campaign that seems to have been undertaken,  as much in Belgium as here in the UK.

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2 hours ago, ri Alban said:

So when Hitler appeared in Poland, do you think everyone should have just said, No! It'll cost too many lives and cost a fortune. Or feck it! Let's get intae him, because otherwise it'll cost more lives. After all it took 60 years to pay back the USA the billions we borrowed off them. And I'm sure we can pay back whatever it takes to beat Covid 19.

At the end of the day, we do what we must for the good of the many, not for you or I. 

Hardly comparable rA. One was a full scale military invasion and this is just a virus.

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7 hours ago, coconut doug said:

 

Nobody adds as many zeros as they want. Where's your facts that the disease is weakening? How do you know what the future effects of the current upturn are going to be? How do you know that shielding will work, how severe it will have to be to ensure protection for our vulnerable? Are you able to calculate the costs and benefits of every gradation between business as usual and full lockdown? People don't want to shield and don't want to "stay indoors for the rest of their lives" as you suggest they might do. If they can't have full normality they want some semblance of it and you don't have the right to deny it to them.

             Last time you looked we lived in a democracy well what does that mean for you? You are telling us that you should be allowed to do what you want but that's not what happens in a democracy. Nobody asked me or anybody else if it was O.K. for certain sections of the community to carry on regardless, undermining our pandemic control strategy and risking lives to satisfy their wishes to exert personal freedom. What happens in a democracy is we vote for people who are supposed to act in our best interests. We live in a representative democracy and in Scotland that means on this issue the SNP and NS are in charge. Very annoyingly for you the vast majority of people in Scotland think NS is doing a good job. When she loses public support she might be forced to change the policy. Last time i looked that's how democracy is supposed to work.

        

Have a read of the link Robbo posted from frontline Belgian doctors.

I've already said I follow the rules but I don't think there will be public support for any attempt to impose a full scale lockdown again. 

Protect hospitals and care homes as those are the places most vulnerable to deaths. That didn't happen last time.  People in the community can look after themselves by cleaning hands, wearing a mask and maintaining social distancing.  Hands, Face, Space. 

So you accused me of "playing God" with vulnerable people's lives and now of forcing them to shield?? Which is it? Anyone who wants to shield can do so and those who want to go out can . Do you really want to tank the economy just so that everyone has to shield? You'll probably be the first to complain when there are no tax receipts to fund the NHS that so many rely on.

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6 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Matt Hancock is awful. 

He is and sounds as though we are heading for even more different rules from England he is still sticking to the group of 6 line this morning.

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Governor Tarkin
50 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

The lack of leadership from U.K. govt has contributed massively to the issues we are currently experiencing.
 

 

Unfortunately this.

 

Johnson set himself up as some sort of Churchillian character but has shown himself to be what we all expected - another over-privilaged career politician with scant regard for much beyond his own self aggrandisment at that of his cronies and handlers.

 

The devolved governments have faired slightly better in this regard, but it's superficial. Beyond the window-dressing their hands are largely tied.

Edited by Governor Tarkin
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51 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

If you want people to follow certain behaviours you need to create consequences. Telling people to do something rarely makes them do It unless they want to. The govt has massively failed at this.

 

They are now going to try and create consequences through punishment/negative consequence (large fines etc) that is not a strategy that will be successful in the long term. It actually will exacerbate the problem as behaviourally punishment/negative consequences lead to resentment and rebellion. 
 

 

 

This is an excellent point and is certainly worth more debate. Positive reinforcement vs negative reinforcement. or to put it another way 'reward vs punishment'. 

 

Negative reinforcement is in no where near as effective as positive reinforcement, but is almost always the 'easiest' option. My question is, how do we enact 'positive reinforcement' of the Covid rules to ensure people stick to the guidelines and, imo, reduce the spread of infection (NB. I realise you and i differ on the effectiveness of the guidelines in reducing the spread). What even is positive reinforcement in this situation.

 

I suppose one could argue that the positive reinforcement (reward) for following the guidelines would be far fewer deaths in the country. However we have seen that unless there is some sort of tangible effect, this form of positive reinforcement doesn't work, and so we are left with the only alternative.

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Captain Canada

I wouldn't normally read a DM article but the authors are well-respected scientists. One of them still works as an emergency GP as well I believe. 

 

The virus was 24th in the list of causes of death very recently. I definitely don't want us to ignore the virus and its impact but I don't see why we can't give everyone the healthcare they need right now. 

 

I know it's a very emotive subject but I'm not interested in arguing about it. We all have people we care about and would want them to get prompt medical treatment if they needed it.

 

Another lockdown is likely to only further increase the needless excess deaths from earlier in the year. 

 

Oxford scientists: the only 'circuit break' we need is from bad data https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8751389/Oxford-scientists-circuit-break-need-cycle-bad-data-bad-science.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

Edited by Captain Canada
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39 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Matt Hancock is awful. 


He’s completely out his depth. Those that look like a moron often are. Boris apparently doesn’t fancy the gig anymore as this coronavirus changes the course of his premiership. 

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jack D and coke
14 hours ago, Lord BJ said:


I read an article in news feed today which seem to claim, that about of third of COVID deaths weren’t actually COVID deaths but hearts attacks, car accidents etc. No idea how much truth in it. 
 


 

I asked on here on Friday if anyone worked at the ERI and haven’t heard anything yet but a mate picked up a doctor of 27 years in his taxi and she told him there hasn’t been a Covid admission in the ERI since late May. There’s apparently 8 wards lying empty. People were coming in back then and if they had a temperature they were getting classed as Covid. People were getting Covid put on their death certificates whether they knew it was Covid or not. 
What is going on?

Edited by jack D and coke
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4 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

I asked on here on Friday if anyone worked at the ERI and haven’t heard anything yet but a mate picked up a doctor of 27 years in his taxi and she told him there hasn’t been a Covid admission in the ERI since late May. People were coming in back then and if they had a temperature they were getting classed as Covid. People were getting Covid put on their death certificates whether they knew it was Covid or not. 
What is going on?

My question to all this is always why.Why  ****ing tank everything and not just our government governments the world over if there is not a serious problem with this virus. 

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jack D and coke
Just now, vegas-voss said:

My question to all this is always why.Why  ****ing tank everything and not just our government governments the world over if there is not a serious problem with this virus. 

I have no idea mate the whole thing makes no sense. 

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Francis Albert
21 minutes ago, Captain Canada said:

I wouldn't normally read a DM article but the authors are well-respected scientists. One of them still works as an emergency GP as well I believe. 

 

The virus was 24th in the list of causes of death very recently. I definitely don't want us to ignore the virus and its impact but I don't see why we can't give everyone the healthcare they need right now. 

 

I know it's a very emotive subject but I'm not interested in arguing about it. We all have people we care about and would want them to get prompt medical treatment if they needed it.

 

Another lockdown is likely to only further increase the needless excess deaths from earlier in the year. 

 

Oxford scientists: the only 'circuit break' we need is from bad data https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8751389/Oxford-scientists-circuit-break-need-cycle-bad-data-bad-science.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

Like the Belgian article quoted above a powerful case for listening to real doctors rather than computer modellers.

 

Though there is a lot to dislike about the Mail the Mail and the Telegraph have actually been pretty good on the pandemic - offering a far far wider range of opinions and facts and much more telling criticism of the Government than the one track Guardian or indeed the BBC.

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£1k fines rising to £10k what's the point most will never be able to pay it in England for failing to self isolate.They really don't live in the real world though only the poorest to get money to self isolate.Not many folk can afford to take two weeks off unpaid regardless of wage as was shown earlier in the year.

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jack D and coke
1 minute ago, Lord BJ said:


I think a doctor has maybe responded to this point. @Governor Tarkin tagged a poster and he responded I’m sure. Can’t remember his name or be arsed looking for his post. 

Yeah he did mate. Don’t think the lad has seen it. Or I haven’t seen the reply I should say. 

Edited by jack D and coke
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Francis Albert
11 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

 


Thanks guys. 
 

I have my wife to thank for knowing how to get the GPs to respond. She a Health Visitor and worked in GP surgeries for 30 years or so. She is also pretty clued up on health issues and I have a daughter in law who is training to be a GP. It’s not what you know it’s who you know and how to play the system in my case. Properly of course and without abusing it.

 

I recommend anyone who has health concerns to push the GPs  they are there to help whether they like it or not and they are well prepared to deal with patients in the surgeries and in a controlled manner. Eg full PPE and other safety precautions in place. 

I don't know if it will work everywhere but when my wife was seriously ill but unable to get a GP appointment she just mentioned that she would have to go to A&E in our local hospital and she was immediately given an appointment. The GP was a bit shocked when she did see her and without treatment with antii-viral medicine my wife may have ended up with permanent nerve damage.

Even now with virtually no Covid19 in our area since May it is still a struggle to get into the surgery in person rather than a telephone or video appointment..

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