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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


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10 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I don't know where the Guardian got their info from because there was a significant leap in cases in Sweden today.

 

Taken from https://c19.se/ (updated for today, 15 Sep):

 

932647250_Screenshotat2020-09-1517-07-56.png.eb08873ac0cf3c09e892425d4ee5179e.png

 

I think they were using the rolling 7 day total, should have made that clear in my post. Article below if you want to have a read of it

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/sweden-records-its-fewest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-march

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3 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Sweden had it's lowest number of cases since March yesterday.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/sweden-records-its-fewest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-march

 

Edit: sorry, that's a rolling average not a daily number.

 

Ok, got you. Thanks for the clarification. That's quite a spike today though - I wonder why.

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15 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ok, got you. Thanks for the clarification. That's quite a spike today though - I wonder why.

Noticed some of the European countries have big variations day to day. France had 80 deaths one day last week but was as low as 3 another day. Best to use a weekly average I guess as a proper gauge. 

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1 minute ago, Back to 2005 said:

Noticed some of the European countries have big variations day to day. France had 80 deaths one day last week but was as low as 3 another day. Best to use a weekly average I guess as a proper gauge. 

 

Definitely agree with the bit in bold.

 

Given the daily stats on that graph though, that is a huge spike. I'm hoping that it's a statistical catch-up rather than indicative of anything more serious. I've had a quick look round the web to see if it is explained anywhere but no joy so far (my lack of Swedish language skills doesn't help!).

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So why is Spain struggling so badly? What did they do so badly that the rest of us could learn from? Lockdown too late? No masks? No social dostancing? Or are their figures skewed like our own? 

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8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Definitely agree with the bit in bold.

 

Given the daily stats on that graph though, that is a huge spike. I'm hoping that it's a statistical catch-up rather than indicative of anything more serious. I've had a quick look round the web to see if it is explained anywhere but no joy so far (my lack of Swedish language skills doesn't help!).

Cant help you with the Swedish but I would imagine it will level out over the week. Let's hope so as it appears their model was the most successful in the medium to long term.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Back to 2005 said:

So why is Spain struggling so badly? What did they do so badly that the rest of us could learn from? Lockdown too late? No masks? No social dostancing? Or are their figures skewed like our own? 

 

Came out of lockdown too early, before they had an efficient test and trace system in place. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Came out of lockdown too early, before they had an efficient test and trace system in place. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

then they allowed lots of tourists in who have probably spread it again

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15 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

So why is Spain struggling so badly? What did they do so badly that the rest of us could learn from? Lockdown too late? No masks? No social dostancing? Or are their figures skewed like our own? 

 

For the original "wave" in the infection graph, Spain were *massively* unprepared.

 

For the current wave, here's an article that discusses it and which places blame partially on seasonal fruit-pickers and also younger folk who mixed and mingled after lockdown was lifted.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53832981

 

Having lived there for a while, the Spanish are *very* social animals. A significant reason for the second wave could be that they relaxed too much when lockdown was ended and thought that the battle had been won when it hadn't. And once people start relaxing and enjoying their new-(re)found freedoms, it's much more difficult to ask them to add restrictions into their lives again.

Edited by redjambo
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12 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Came out of lockdown too early, before they had an efficient test and trace system in place.

 

The article I posted includes the following comment: "Madrid had fewer than 200 contact tracers by the end of July. Double that number had been promised, and even that was half the figure recommended by the medical community."

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A comparison of 3 countries. Two with hard lockdowns one with none. Two of the 3 now have a vast increases in cases but the deaths curve is still flat for all 3. 

Screenshot_20200915-180311_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200915-180216_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200915-180133_Samsung Internet.jpg

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21 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

:D

 

Following on from that, some very interesting information on plagues in Scotland: http://www.rcpe.ac.uk/journal/issue/vol31_no3/T_Eleven_Plagues.pdf

 

Measures were taken such as "Members of a household with a plague victim should avoid contact with others for 12 days." and "There was a 10 p.m. curfew, and all taverns and schools should be closed."

 

The deniers on here who think we should do nothing would have found it very frustrating back then when they couldn't go on message boards to expound their zany claims. ;)

 

 

Thanks for posting that. It was a great read and surprising to see the measures then weren't so different from today...! However those who flouted the rules were harshly treated.. ! 

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15 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

Cant help you with the Swedish but I would imagine it will level out over the week. Let's hope so as it appears their model was the most successful in the medium to long term.

 

I can certainly agree with the hope aspect, but not wanting to reignite that particular debate, I don't think we can say yet that the Swedish model was the most successful, particularly given their death rate compared to their Scandinavian neighbours.

 

One thing to consider too is that some folk seem to think that the Swedish didn't have any lockdown. In reality, at times their restrictions were quite strict. Just a wee while ago today, while trying to find anything about Sweden's Covid spike today, I came across the following English-language page https://www.swedentips.se/daily-news-sweden/ which mentions that "Starting October 1, indoor visits will once again be allowed at Sweden’s elderly care homes after the government banned them back in April to limit the spread of the coronavirus." That's even stricter than our rules. I didn't search out that article and I didn't cherry pick it either. It's not all black and white.

 

I will of course be interested when we look back in the medium-term at the various measures employed by different countries and determine what worked and what didn't. I personally think that it's too early to generalise though, particularly when the terms "lockdown" and "restrictions" are so ill-defined when comparing countries.

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4 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Thanks for posting that. It was a great read and surprising to see the measures then weren't so different from today...! However those who flouted the rules were harshly treated.. ! 

 

I know. Hands being lopped off and cheeks being branded left, right and centre!

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7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I can certainly agree with the hope aspect, but not wanting to reignite that particular debate, I don't think we can say yet that the Swedish model was the most successful, particularly given their death rate compared to their Scandinavian neighbours.

 

One thing to consider too is that some folk seem to think that the Swedish didn't have any lockdown. In reality, at times their restrictions were quite strict. Just a wee while ago today, while trying to find anything about Sweden's Covid spike today, I came across the following English-language page https://www.swedentips.se/daily-news-sweden/ which mentions that "Starting October 1, indoor visits will once again be allowed at Sweden’s elderly care homes after the government banned them back in April to limit the spread of the coronavirus." That's even stricter than our rules. I didn't search out that article and I didn't cherry pick it either. It's not all black and white.

 

I will of course be interested when we look back in the medium-term at the various measures employed by different countries and determine what worked and what didn't. I personally think that it's too early to generalise though, particularly when the terms "lockdown" and "restrictions" are so ill-defined when comparing countries.

No it's all about getting the balance right and Sweden has clearly chosen to protect the vulnerable. 

You wonder how many of them have lost the will to live without having any visitors. Must be soul destroying. 

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Just now, Victorian said:

Lothians restrictions have been discussed at official level but no specific causes are indentified to restrict.

 

They'll be monitoring the stats *very* carefully. If they keep on rising as they are then they will probably have to instigate a "general local lockdown", if you know what I mean. They would probably far prefer to pinpoint a causal transmission vector but won't (and shouldn't) hesitate to instigate a local lockdown without one.

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Pathetic " report" on STV news about the police at the weekend breaking up " house parties"....absolutely dire stuff really. They " raided" one house were 4 people were there...! 

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1 minute ago, Back to 2005 said:

You wonder how many of them have lost the will to live without having any visitors. Must be soul destroying. 

 

I agree with the bit in bold - it must be really tough for older folk not to see and have physical contact with their relatives.

 

Although our opinions on the approach to the coronavirus are diametrically opposed, we've agreed on a few things today. This will have to stop, Bt2! :)

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7 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Pathetic " report" on STV news about the police at the weekend breaking up " house parties"....absolutely dire stuff really. They " raided" one house were 4 people were there...! 

Must be a great time to be a burglar!  As long as you dont operate in a team of more than 6 you wont get arrested...

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4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

They'll be monitoring the stats *very* carefully. If they keep on rising as they are then they will probably have to instigate a "general local lockdown", if you know what I mean. They would probably far prefer to pinpoint a causal transmission vector but won't (and shouldn't) hesitate to instigate a local lockdown without one.

and what do you mean by a " general lockdown" which you say so flippantly and your happy that they may impose this without pinpointing a the transmission vector ?

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Just now, redjambo said:

 

They'll be monitoring the stats *very* carefully. If they keep on rising as they are then they will probably have to instigate a "general local lockdown", if you know what I mean. They would probably far prefer to pinpoint a causal transmission vector but won't (and shouldn't) hesitate to instigate a local lockdown without one.

 

Hopefully not.    It's also a bit of a snag to be unable to identify a specific setting to at least explain rising numbers.   In the absence of any identifiable cause,  what are you left with?   Community and within household transmission.   Much better to know there's something specific to manage (multiple household contact and/or pubs,  etc).     I'm not sure what kind of measures could be imposed to get on top of it.

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Just now, Robbofan99 said:

and what do you mean by a " general lockdown" which you say so flippantly and your happy that they may impose this without pinpointing a the transmission vector ?

 

I called it a "general local lockdown".

 

If the transmission vector can't be pinpointed but the infection (and thus transmission) rate is getting to a level where the virus could start running rampant, then the authorities will have to institute a local lockdown which targets the more usual means of transmission in the hope that it will do the trick. It's not rocket science.

 

I never say anything flippantly unless I'm joking around. If you feel that any of my words were flippant then you inferred that feeling yourself. And I also wouldn't be "happy", but I would certainly think it was the right thing to do. Try to keep emotion out of it if you can.

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7 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I agree with the bit in bold - it must be really tough for older folk not to see and have physical contact with their relatives.

 

Although our opinions on the approach to the coronavirus are diametrically opposed, we've agreed on a few things today. This will have to stop, Bt2! :)

😄 look we are all just Jambos who want to get back to normal and forget this nightmare ever happened.  We just have differing opinions on to the way to getting there much as some people want to make me out to be an ignorant moron....😟

Disclaimer - anyone from Hamilton is excluded from the above.

 

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5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Hopefully not.    It's also a bit of a snag to be unable to identify a specific setting to at least explain rising numbers.   In the absence of any identifiable cause,  what are you left with?   Community and within household transmission.   Much better to know there's something specific to manage (multiple household contact and/or pubs,  etc).     I'm not sure what kind of measures could be imposed to get on top of it.

 

Aberdeen + Glasgow perhaps. It would depend on the seriousness of the threat. As you say, hopefully not.

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1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

I called it a "general local lockdown".

 

If the transmission vector can't be pinpointed but the infection (and thus transmission) rate is getting to a level where the virus could start running rampant, then the authorities will have to institute a local lockdown which targets the more usual means of transmission in the hope that it will do the trick. It's not rocket science.

 

I never say anything flippantly unless I'm joking around. If you feel that any of my words were flippant then you inferred that feeling yourself. And I also wouldn't be "happy", but I would certainly think it was the right thing to do. Try to keep emotion out of it if you can.

 

I sympathise.   You're dealing with an absolute abomination of a poster.    Brainless and a total hypocrite.   

 

I understood you.   Yes,  it's problematic for them to be dealing with an unexplained rise.    

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24 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

A comparison of 3 countries. Two with hard lockdowns one with none. Two of the 3 now have a vast increases in cases but the deaths curve is still flat for all 3. 

Screenshot_20200915-180311_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200915-180216_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200915-180133_Samsung Internet.jpg

 

 These graphs don't show the characteristics you claim they do.

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2 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

😄 look we are all just Jambos who want to get back to normal and forget this nightmare ever happened.

 

Indeed.

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47 minutes ago, Samuel Camazzola said:

Always surprises me that people ask opinions from Noel Gallagher, Jedward and other celebrities on something they know no more about than you or I. Just sing your songs a stfu. 

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4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I sympathise.   You're dealing with an absolute abomination of a poster.    Brainless and a total hypocrite.   

 

I understood you.   Yes,  it's problematic for them to be dealing with an unexplained rise.    

Stop crawling in with him. Its pathetic. :) Anything to try and get anyone on your side with your inane ramblings.  The voice of doom. You should be shouting from the roof tops that the hospital stats are 48 but clearly you wont.  Doesnt fit your narrative. 

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1 minute ago, Robbofan99 said:

Stop crawling in with him. Its pathetic. :) Anything to try and get anyone on your side with your inane ramblings.  The voice of doom. You should be shouting from the roof tops that the hospital stats are 48 but clearly you wont.  Doesnt fit your narrative. 

 

I don't have a narrative.   Having a narrative is when you espouse views to suit and support a fixed conclusion.   You,  in other words.    A demented zealot.

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5 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Always surprises me that people ask opinions from Noel Gallagher, Jedward and other celebrities on something they know no more about than you or I. Just sing your songs a stfu. 

 

Exactly. They're almost always as uninformed as the next member of the public. Even if they have taken the bother of informing themselves, I'd far rather listen to the science and to scientists any day.

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There's a wider purpose to trying to get popular figures to speak to,  usually younger,  groups of society.    It's a known concept that some younger people have a disconnect from political or official figures and the way in which they deliver information,  instructions,  guidance.    That these people may tend to listen and pay attention to celebrities and popular figures,  but that officialdom simply doesn't get through to them.

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8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I don't have a narrative.   Having a narrative is when you espouse views to suit and support a fixed conclusion.   You,  in other words.    A demented zealot.

You do have a narrative though and anyone who disagrees will get that sort of response. 

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Just now, Back to 2005 said:

You do have a narrative though and anyone who disagrees will get that sort of response. 

 

Nope.  Another lie / delusion / inaccuracy.    You're consistent anyway.   Great at being wrong.

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5 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

You do have a narrative though and anyone who disagrees will get that sort of response. 

Exactly mate he cant even see irony of his last response 

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https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-coronavirus-cases-rise-death-rate-161536401.html
"Number of coronavirus sufferers in hospital has doubled in past fortnight, new data shows

The number of people in hospital in England with coronavirus has doubled in the past two weeks alongside a sharp rise in confirmed cases.

Government figures published on Tuesday showed that 884 people are currently being treated in hospital for the virus compared with just 425 a fortnight ago.

Official figures also revealed 3,105 new cases on Tuesday, more than double 1,508 confirmed new cases 14 days ago on 2 September."

 

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Nucky Thompson
5 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-coronavirus-cases-rise-death-rate-161536401.html
"Number of coronavirus sufferers in hospital has doubled in past fortnight, new data shows

The number of people in hospital in England with coronavirus has doubled in the past two weeks alongside a sharp rise in confirmed cases.

Government figures published on Tuesday showed that 884 people are currently being treated in hospital for the virus compared with just 425 a fortnight ago.

Official figures also revealed 3,105 new cases on Tuesday, more than double 1,508 confirmed new cases 14 days ago on 2 September."

 

That's bullshit mate. I've been checking the daily stats for months and there was not only 425 people in hospital 2 weeks ago.

It's been hovering between 900 and 700. 

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Samuel Camazzola
53 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Always surprises me that people ask opinions from Noel Gallagher, Jedward and other celebrities on something they know no more about than you or I. Just sing your songs a stfu. 

Jedward celebrities? 😂 

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Nucky Thompson

It's the whole UK stats I've been checking daily. So maybe that's right for just England.

To put it into context, there were 17,172 people in hospital in England on the 12th April up from 7012 two weeks before that.

3000 were in ICU on the 12th April compared to 97 today

 

 

Edited by Nucky Thompson
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Samuel Camazzola
1 minute ago, GinRummy said:

Aye was pushing the envelope a bit there. 😂

I was surprised they were still even a 'thing'. They must have got their five minutes in the late 2000s!

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