Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Jambo 4 Ever]

2 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

Stupid is believing what Sturgeon tells you is in your best interests. 

 

No it’s not 

 

do you have kids?

Edited September 14, 2020 by Natural Orders

[JudyJudyJudy]

33 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

Ftfy 🤣
 

so how come you don’t wear one?

Probably none of yourbusinesss really. Just like when am go on the bus and dont question people whodon'tt wear  a  mask but make sure im a good bit away from them when seated. 

[Jambo 4 Ever]

1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Probably none of yourbusinesss really. Just like when am go on the bus and dont question people whodon'tt wear  a  mask but make sure im a good bit away from them when seated. 

He’s already said he doesn’t wear one because he “doesn’t see the point” in doing so.

 

this is selfish ignorant behaviour  

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

Stupid is believing what Sturgeon tells you is in your best interests. 

 

 

Poor effort at deflecting attention away from your latest profoundly stupid notion.    A veritable compendium of dullardry,  all wrapped up in 11 words.

[Ray Gin]

 

Face masks may be inadvertently giving people Covid-19 immunity and making them get less sick from the virus, academics have suggested in one of the most respected medical journals in the world. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/

Edited September 14, 2020 by Ray Gin

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

He’s already said he doesn’t wear one because he “doesn’t see the point” in doing so.

 

this is selfish ignorant behaviour  

The people who dont wear them on buses may have perfectly valid reasons. I am unsure if wearing a mask does protect but i like to think im doing my bit to respect others by wearing one. 

[jambo89]

23 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

Not that I can see. The false positives are tests picking up dead viral particles which makes sense to me. The same tests would need to miss completely any viral particles which is less likely imo.

 

If the false positives are picking up dead particles, does that mean that they are not looking for any 'live particles'. That sounds more like it would be suited as an anti-body test?

 

I've been for about 8 tests since June and have never really questioned it but would be good to know how it all works.

 

Assuming that is correct, then the only time you could return a false negative is virus when you actually have the virus, but before it has shed any cells / particles? 

 

 

[TheOak88]

2 hours ago, jambo89 said:

 

I saw this a couple of days ago and thought it was interesting. He has a strong background in respiratory disease and hasn't any real reasons for an agenda that I can see. 

 

After you posted this I decided to to a bit of digging and had a read of the paper he has written this in. I was immediately struck by this line :-

 

Evidence presented in this paper indicates that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic as an event in the UK is essentially complete, with ongoing and anticipated challenges well within the capacity of a normalised NHS to cope. The virus infection has passed through the bulk of the population as a result of wholly natural processes and evidence indicates that in the UK and other heavily infected European countries the spread of the virus has been all but halted by a substantial reduction in the susceptible population. This has occurred because the level of infection required to introduce enough immunity into the population to reduce the reproduction number (R) permanently below 1 occurred at markedly lower infection rates and loss of life than had been initially anticipated. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that there should be no expectation of a large scale ‘second wave’ with smaller localised outbreaks when the virus contacts pockets of previously uninfected populations.

 

Effectively saying that herd immunity has been achieved and that the R rate will now never go above 1. 

 

It is worth noting that the article was posted on lockdownsceptics.com so hardly an un-bias source as I initially assumed. I am also pretty sure the R rate has now gone past 1 rendering hi article useless / unreliable. 

 

No, that’s incorrect. 

 

The R number is reported to be above 1 currently, however how do we calculate the R number?. The R number is essentially calculated by tracking the number of positive cases. 

 

If you listened to the interview, the Dr from Pfizer explained the problem with our current PCR testing, and how it is unreliable producing significant numbers of false positives (predominantly from people who may have had CV at some point in the past). If the reported number of positive cases is overstated then in turn the R number will be overstated. 

[jambo89]

7 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

 

No, that’s incorrect. 

 

The R number is reported to be above 1 currently, however how do we calculate the R number?. The R number is essentially calculated by tracking the number of positive cases. 

 

If you listened to the interview, the Dr from Pfizer explained the problem with our current PCR testing, and how it is unreliable producing significant numbers of false positives (predominantly from people who may have had CV at some point in the past). If the reported number of positive cases is overstated then in turn the R number will be overstated. 

What is incorrect? Me saying the R number is above 1, or that the R number is above 1?

If there are a significant number of people who are Asymptomatic, how do we not know that the R number is actually underestimated?

 

If that guys theories are based on if, buts and maybes, then possibly hold off taking his word as gospel! 

Edited September 14, 2020 by jambo89

[graygo]

8 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

 

If the false positives are picking up dead particles, does that mean that they are not looking for any 'live particles'. That sounds more like it would be suited as an anti-body test?

 

I've been for about 8 tests since June and have never really questioned it but would be good to know how it all works.

 

Assuming that is correct, then the only time you could return a false negative is virus when you actually have the virus, but before it has shed any cells / particles? 

 

 

The test can't differentiate between live and dead particles so gives positive and false positive results. 

 

I've actually given up trying to understand it all, between false negatives and false positives it looks like the results are 50% accurate at best and the advice is to assume you are infected regardless of the test result as nobody should be getting tested without symptoms anyway.

[Back to 2005]

30 minutes ago, Natural Orders said:

No it’s not 

 

do you have kids?

😲 you'd be the last person I would be answering that to.....

[Samuel Camazzola]

 

[SE16 3LN]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

I have asthma.

I wear a mask.

 

Stop looking for pathetic reasons to not wear masks.

I have asthma.

I wear a mask

I recognise there are different types of asthma and different types of people.

Stop looking for pathetic reasons to abuse people.

[CavySlaveJambo]

56 minutes ago, graygo said:

 

I've seen figures for false positives but not false negatives, have you a link to that?

Back in June but not seen anything more recent. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52906909

[jambo89]

Just now, graygo said:

 

The test can't differentiate between live and dead particles so gives positive and false positive results. 

 

I've actually given up trying to understand it all, between false negatives and false positives it looks like the results are 50% accurate at best and the advice is to assume you are infected regardless of the test result as nobody should be getting tested without symptoms anyway.

Bit of a mind **** . 
 

I work offshore and require to be tested prior to any mobilisation to an oil rig. If I test positive, I won’t be getting onboard. 
 

I have wondered if the thousands of tests carried out each day (as I mentioned previously I’ve had 8 since June)  are skewing the numbers. 
 

There are thousands of workers getting tested each day, returning negatives, but not sure if that gets counted in the numbers!

[Back to 2005]

28 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

The people who dont wear them on buses may have perfectly valid reasons. I am unsure if wearing a mask does protect but i like to think im doing my bit to respect others by wearing one. 

I respect anyone's right to wear one. The reason I dont is that I see it is a  acceptance of something that I am not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance as science has never backed the use of them before.

[TheOak88]

3 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

But if there are a significant number of people who are Asymptomatic, how do we not know that the R number is actually underestimated?

 

Essentially we don’t know. 

 

Although I would state, the other factors which play into calculating the R number are numbers of people in hospital with CV and numbers of deaths. Although cases have been going up in the UK for the past 6 weeks or so, the numbers in hospital have gone up a bit, and the deaths haven’t really gone up much at all, which I suppose kind of agrees with his point that false positives may be giving an overstated number of current infections. 

 

One of the the biggest problems we have with this is that we still don’t really have an effective test to confirm whether people currently have CV. As such, we are really just fumbling about in the dark when trying to understand how prevalent it is in the community. I suppose arguably hospitalisations and deaths are a more valid measure in that respect. 

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

What is incorrect? Me saying the R number is above 1, or that the R number is above 1?

If there are a significant number of people who are Asymptomatic, how do we not know that the R number is actually underestimated?

 

If that guys theories are based on if, buts and maybes, then possibly hold off taking his word as gospel! 

 

He certainly raises an interesting idea based on calling into question a few contributing factors that could,  in theory,  compound with each other to indicate a very different landscape.   He's got credentials.   Sounds convinced by his own argument.

[SE16 3LN]

2 hours ago, Natural Orders said:

This 

Oh, here is another one. What type of asthma do you have? 

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

I respect anyone's right to wear one. The reason I dont is that I see it is a  acceptance of something that I am not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance as science has never backed the use of them before.

Fair enough 

[CavySlaveJambo]

1 minute ago, TheOak88 said:

One of the the biggest problems we have with this is that we still don’t really have an effective test to confirm whether people currently have CV. As such, we are really just fumbling about in the dark when trying to understand how prevalent it is in the community. I suppose arguably hospitalisations and deaths are a more valid measure in that respect. 

But certain age groups - and not the age groups with the current high figures - are more susceptible to having a more severe illness and death.  
 

 

 

[TheOak88]

12 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

But certain age groups - and not the age groups with the current high figures - are more susceptible to having a more severe illness and death.  
 

 

 

 

Not sure what you mean?

[graygo]

14 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

Back in June but not seen anything more recent. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52906909

 

Between 2 and 20%,  the BBC will call it 20%. Interesting that it's not the actual test that throws up false negatives, it's the process, the tests only give false positives.

[redjambo]

1 hour ago, graygo said:

 

I've seen figures for false positives but not false negatives, have you a link to that?

 

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/which-test-is-best-for-covid-19-2020081020734

[The Mighty Thor]

Where does the latest news about the current testing shambles leave baw jaws' moonshot testing programme?

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

 

Not sure what you mean?

 

He means that some experts believe the current infections are made up of a large percentage of younger people,  who tend to be less susceptible to severe disease,   but that older age groups may stand to be among the infections to come after the current ones.    People tending to be more susceptible.

[graygo]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/which-test-is-best-for-covid-19-2020081020734

 

Thanks, I got a link from @CavySlaveJambo, slightly different figures but close enough.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Where does the latest news about the current testing shambles leave baw jaws' moonshot testing programme?

 

It's not even the testing shambles.   No test results = delays to track,  trace and isolate work.    

[graygo]

1 minute ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Where does the latest news about the current testing shambles leave baw jaws' moonshot testing programme?

 

By my reckoning if we test 1 million we get the following -

 

Approximately 200,000 false negative results.

Approximately 50,000 false positive results.

 

So 200,000 infected people sent back into the population spreading the virus thinking they are clear.

50,000 people and their families isolating and their contacts being told to self isolate when there is bugger all wrong with any of them.

[JFK-1]

24 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

I respect anyone's right to wear one. The reason I dont is that I see it is a  acceptance of something that I am not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance as science has never backed the use of them before.

 

Do you think it would have been acceptable during WW2 if someone said the reason I don't comply with blackout restrictions is that I see it as acceptance of something i'm not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance with government advice. 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

5 hours ago, Robbofan99 said:

Wow send them to the gallows for daring to smoke while having asthma . What a plonker 

 

That's not as outlandish as you'd think, in Edinburgh in the 1530's during a plague outbreak a man was hanged by the authorities for not reporting to them that his wife was dying from the plague and he'd went of to church, so they hanged him or poor Katryne Heriot who got the blame for bringing the plague into Edinburgh, well they drowned her.

 

But it wasn't all bad, in 1499 they banned everybody from Haddington & Peebles from entering Edinburgh, presumably because they were disease ridden, 500 years later and.............

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, jambo89 said:

 

What did you think a pandemic was??? 😂

 

[Victorian]

The most vindicated experts thus far have been the sociologists and behavioural science boffins.    They said from the outset what would likely happen regarding rules,  regulations,  instructions,  restrictions,  guidance,  advice,  requests.   Higher initial compliance / approval,  steadily eroding over time.

 

"I'm no complying with that 'cos I think it's just them gauging our compliance" being the type of industrial grade idiocy we see today.

[XB52]

10 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Do you think it would have been acceptable during WW2 if someone said the reason I don't comply with blackout restrictions is that I see it as acceptance of something i'm not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance with government advice. 

Well said. The guy is just a pure troll though so best ignored. Nobody could be that stupid 

[The Internet]

9 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

That's not as outlandish as you'd think, in Edinburgh in the 1530's during a plague outbreak a man was hanged by the authorities for not reporting to them that his wife was dying from the plague and he'd went of to church, so they hanged him or poor Katryne Heriot who got the blame for bringing the plague into Edinburgh, well they drowned her.

 

Sturgeon was on a mad one that day. 

[Back to 2005]

15 minutes ago, JFK-1 said:

 

Do you think it would have been acceptable during WW2 if someone said the reason I don't comply with blackout restrictions is that I see it as acceptance of something i'm not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance with government advice. 

As far as I'm aware they dodnt change the advice three months in to the war from leave the lights on to blackout.

We would have known who the enemy was back then.

 

[redjambo]

7 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

That's not as outlandish as you'd think, in Edinburgh in the 1530's during a plague outbreak a man was hanged by the authorities for not reporting to them that his wife was dying from the plague and he'd went of to church, so they hanged him or poor Katryne Heriot who got the blame for bringing the plague into Edinburgh, well they drowned her.

 

But it wasn't all bad, in 1499 they banned everybody from Haddington & Peebles from entering Edinburgh, presumably because they were disease ridden, 500 years later and.............

 

 

Following on from that, some very interesting information on plagues in Scotland: http://www.rcpe.ac.uk/journal/issue/vol31_no3/T_Eleven_Plagues.pdf

 

Measures were taken such as "Members of a household with a plague victim should avoid contact with others for 12 days." and "There was a 10 p.m. curfew, and all taverns and schools should be closed."

 

The deniers on here who think we should do nothing would have found it very frustrating back then when they couldn't go on message boards to expound their zany claims.

 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

23 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

Extinction: The Facts on BBC 1 just now is a horrible watch in so many ways.

 

Every pandemic is the fault of humans and will continue to be so.

 

 

 

 

IMO these are all inter-connected and are the possible future pandemics, because goodness knows what virus' and diseases we are unleashing upon the Earth, not to mention the environmental consequences.

 

 

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

As far as I'm aware they dodnt change the advice three months in to the war from leave the lights on to blackout.

We would have known who the enemy was back then.

 

 

Yes, and that included those who did everything they could to undermine the war effort.

[Back to 2005]

7 minutes ago, XB52 said:

Well said. The guy is just a pure troll though so best ignored. Nobody could be that stupid 

As I keep saying stupid is doing exactly what you are told without question or because you are scared if you don't.  Think 1930s Germany. 

Far easier to act like a sheep and to hell with the consequences.  

[Back to 2005]

6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Yes, and that included those who did everything they could to undermine the war effort.

This isn't a war. 

[JFK-1]

3 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

As far as I'm aware they dodnt change the advice three months in to the war from leave the lights on to blackout.

We would have known who the enemy was back then.

 

 

Actually they were continually changing advice on all manner of subjects including air raid advice as new information came to light. That's common sense reality, and no one gave the proverbial flying about anybody's feelings about it. 
 

And why would they, the entire society is the main concern. Not the hurt feelings of random individuals within it. 

[AlphonseCapone]

45 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

I respect anyone's right to wear one. The reason I dont is that I see it is a  acceptance of something that I am not comfortable with. I believe it has been brought in to gauge compliance as science has never backed the use of them before.

 

Edgy. 

 

Tbh I doubt you could follow an article in Hello magazine, never mind understanding the science of whether or not masks are effective. 

[redjambo]

1 minute ago, Back to 2005 said:

This isn't a war. 

 

Oh aye it is. It's a war against Covid-19. Wars don't need to be waged against countries or people.

[JFK-1]

1 minute ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

Edgy. 

 

Tbh I doubt you could follow an article in Hello magazine, never mind understanding the science of whether or not masks are effective. 

 

Indeed, or, as Brian Cox mentioned.
 

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

 

Following on from that, some very interesting information on plagues in Scotland: http://www.rcpe.ac.uk/journal/issue/vol31_no3/T_Eleven_Plagues.pdf

 

Measures were taken such as "Members of a household with a plague victim should avoid contact with others for 12 days." and "There was a 10 p.m. curfew, and all taverns and schools should be closed."

 

The deniers on here who think we should do nothing would have found it very frustrating back then when they couldn't go on message boards to expound their zany claims.

 

 

 

Yeh, that's where I got my info from, it's from the old burgh records of Edinburgh.

Some of the measures employed 500 years ago are similar to today, such as stay away from others for 12 days or you had to report if you had an infectious person in the household, limiting the movement of people, quarantining or banning goods from certain other towns/places.

 

Children being put in the stocks and scourged..................that's next week

 

Looking back it's funny how much things change, they actually stay the same in many ways.

[graygo]

8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

 

Following on from that, some very interesting information on plagues in Scotland: http://www.rcpe.ac.uk/journal/issue/vol31_no3/T_Eleven_Plagues.pdf

 

Measures were taken such as "Members of a household with a plague victim should avoid contact with others for 12 days." and "There was a 10 p.m. curfew, and all taverns and schools should be closed."

 

The deniers on here who think we should do nothing would have found it very frustrating back then when they couldn't go on message boards to expound their zany claims.

 

 

I'm not sure anyone is a denier on here, they maybe don't agree with the measures the government are putting in place but surely nobody is denying Covid-19 exists.

 

On a side note how did we come out of the other plagues?

[Morgan]

There is a mask crusader loose on here.

 

Beware.

[Victorian]

Hello,  I am a free thinker.

I'm not doing stuff I'm asked to 'cos it's stupid to believe what you're told without question.

I choose to not believe and not do stuff without question.

[redjambo]

2 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Yeh, that's where I got my info from, it's from the old burgh records of Edinburgh.

Some of the measures employed 500 years ago are similar to today, such as stay away from others for 12 days or you had to report if you had an infectious person in the household, limiting the movement of people, quarantining or banning goods from certain other towns/places.

 

Children being put in the stocks and scourged..................that's next week

 

Looking back it's funny how much things change, they actually stay the same in many ways.

 

Indeed. The people best suited to be politicians are perhaps historians. We're forever tackling the same problems, just packaged differently.