The rise and fall of The SNP.

[Justin Z]

2 hours ago, Space Mackerel said:

Erm, I served in Gulf War1 and 2 when you were absent. 

 

 

[ri Alban]

5 hours ago, Space Mackerel said:

Erm, I served in Gulf War1 and 2 when you were absent. 

 

Were you a waiter? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2020 by ri Alban

[SE16 3LN]

Good to see the Murrell - Sturgeons are outdoing Boris in the political skulduggery stakes, but It was all a Westminster plot man.

[Seymour M Hersh]

On 18/09/2020 at 22:38, Ray Gin said:

 

 

 

Which begs the question had they been successful how on earth would they have paid for the pandemic? 

[Ray Gin]

4 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Which begs the question had they been successful how on earth would they have paid for the pandemic? 

 

If the UK GOV (who were already £1,877.5 billion in debt) managed, I'm sure we would too.

[Ray Gin]

10 hours ago, Nucky Thompson said:

A man with Sturgeon as his profile picture is comedy gold 

 

 

Interested as to what makes this so hilarious to you. Why does it matter what gender he is? 

[manaliveits105]

We would have been bankrupt well before the pandemic but on the bright side President Alex would have had plenty women ministers on his cabinet by now

[Seymour M Hersh]

28 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

If the UK GOV (who were already £1,877.5 billion in debt) managed, I'm sure we would too.

 

So the fact that the Treasury in London has paid £6.8 billion to cover the costs of the pandemic here the SN{P would have been able to fund it all. You're dreaming.  And you probably don't want to bring up Scotlands share of the UK debt that would have been inherited in 2014 or would the SNP have just got all the good bits? 

[Ray Gin]

35 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

So the fact that the Treasury in London has paid £6.8 billion to cover the costs of the pandemic here the SN{P would have been able to fund it all. You're dreaming.  And you probably don't want to bring up Scotlands share of the UK debt that would have been inherited in 2014 or would the SNP have just got all the good bits? 

 

Explain how Scotland having it own debt which it would have its own control over would be much worse than having a share of the UK debt which it has no control over?

[Roxy Hearts]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

So the fact that the Treasury in London has paid £6.8 billion to cover the costs of the pandemic here the SN{P would have been able to fund it all. You're dreaming.  And you probably don't want to bring up Scotlands share of the UK debt that would have been inherited in 2014 or would the SNP have just got all the good bits? 

Share of assets too if we take debt. Why is English debt different from Scottish debt? 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 minute ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Share of assets too if we take debt. Why is English debt different from Scottish debt? 

 

See, only the good bits eh. 

[Unknown user]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

So the fact that the Treasury in London has paid £6.8 billion to cover the costs of the pandemic here the SN{P would have been able to fund it all. You're dreaming.  And you probably don't want to bring up Scotlands share of the UK debt that would have been inherited in 2014 or would the SNP have just got all the good bits? 

Can you list the successor states that have taken a share of debt with them when leaving a union?

 

I ask because I don't know of one, the continuator carries the debt in every instance I'm aware of.

[manaliveits105]

but wuv goat oil !!!

 

fools gold 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

47 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Explain how Scotland having it own debt which it would have its own control over would be much worse than having a share of the UK debt which it has no control over?

 

We have no central bank. Mind you neither does Andorra, Kiribati or Tuvalu so we'd be in good company. 

[Ray Gin]

15 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

We have no central bank. Mind you neither does Andorra, Kiribati or Tuvalu so we'd be in good company. 

 

Not currently because we are part of the union. We could set one up when we leave. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Not currently because we are part of the union. We could set one up when we leave. 

 

Where will an independent Scotland get the money to create a central bank? 

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Where will an independent Scotland get the money to create a central bank? 

 bloody hell, do you think this is something that's never been attempted before?

It's coming, we'll sort it, these are hurdles not mountains

[Ray Gin]

6 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Where will an independent Scotland get the money to create a central bank? 

 

Where did any independent country get the money to create their central bank?

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Where did any independent country get the money to create their central bank?

And how much debt did they take with them?

[Seymour M Hersh]

12 minutes ago, Smithee said:

And how much debt did they take with them?

 

Are you under the impression an independent Scotland would walk away without having to accept any UK debt?

[Norm]

2 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Are you under the impression an independent Scotland would walk away without having to accept any UK debt?

As I understand it, we can walk away without paying a penny. It just means our reputation would be shot on the global stage. A pariah. Up there with nations who break international law and... treaties... with... other nations.........

 

Hang on a minute. I'm sure I've seen that somewhere else recently..

[Seymour M Hersh]

8 minutes ago, Normthebarman said:

As I understand it, we can walk away without paying a penny. It just means our reputation would be shot on the global stage. A pariah. Up there with nations who break international law and... treaties... with... other nations.........

 

Hang on a minute. I'm sure I've seen that somewhere else recently..

 

Indeed, the EU and Germany in particular. 

[Roxy Hearts]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

See, only the good bits eh. 

Good and bad. I would accept all of it like normal countries. It's how we manage it and that's the issue for all countries governments. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

4 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Good and bad. I would accept all of it like normal countries. It's how we manage it and that's the issue for all countries governments. 

 

And that would be the biggest concern of all given their handling of the areas already devolved. 

[Roxy Hearts]

4 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

And that would be the biggest concern of all given their handling of the areas already devolved. 

We are good at some things, poor at others. Not any different from most countries. They keep on winning elections with bigger margins than the chancers at Westminster so must be doing something right.

 

They wouldn't be in power after a Scottish General Election and I would rather have any party in an independent Scotland govern us than any from Westminster. The best interests of Scotland would be better served by people who live here. 

 

 

[SwindonJambo]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

Can you list the successor states that have taken a share of debt with them when leaving a union?

 

I ask because I don't know of one, the continuator carries the debt in every instance I'm aware of.

 

I really don't think that would be a good idea for the sake of good relations with what would be by far our biggest trading partner and ally.

 

Scotland's population share of UK debt would be around £170bn. In post separation negotiations, it would probably be possible to forego its share of shared assets such as overseas territories (Gibraltar, the Falklands etc) in return for a reduction in debt. If Scotland could negotiate a 'call it quits' outcome i.e. no debt taken on but forego all shared assets, that would be an excellent outcome. 

 

Having negotiated that as a start point, it would be necessary to run a tight ship for a few years because it would begin its independent existence with a default, junk credit rating, and high borrowing costs. That could mean cuts and other unpopular decisions. But after a few years of good fiscal management, a credit rating would come and the purse strings could be loosened a bit.

 

I don't think the immediate aftermath of a pandemic and recession would be the best time to go - public finances will be in trouble all over the World. A relatively buoyant economy would be a much better start point.

 

 

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 hours ago, Roxy Hearts said:

We are good at some things, poor at others. Not any different from most countries. They keep on winning elections with bigger margins than the chancers at Westminster so must be doing something right.

 

They wouldn't be in power after a Scottish General Election and I would rather have any party in an independent Scotland govern us than any from Westminster. The best interests of Scotland would be better served by people who live here. 

 

 

 

 

This always amuses me. So you think power mad people like Sturgeon et al will just fade away into the distance if they ever gained independence? 

[SwindonJambo]

21 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

 

This always amuses me. So you think power mad people like Sturgeon et al will just fade away into the distance if they ever gained independence? 

 

Trying to be neutral and objective about it, I think Sturgeon and Co woulf remain actively  involved if still in favour  but under a renamed or different party. I would expect, with its core aim achieved, the SNP would splinter into left, centre and right with its individual MSPs joining whichever party they agreed with. 

 

I would expect something akin to Scottish Liberal, Labour and Conservative to form and battle it out accordingly.

 

 

[Roxy Hearts]

36 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

 

This always amuses me. So you think power mad people like Sturgeon et al will just fade away into the distance if they ever gained independence? 

We can vote to find out. I'm not sure she's power mad, any more so than that moron that's the prime minister of the dysfunctional British state. Gove and Cummings, now that's power mad especially as one isn't even elected and we have an unelected second chamber, is that power mad too? 

[coconut doug]

4 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Where will an independent Scotland get the money to create a central bank? 

 

Why does Scotlnd need money to set up a Central Bank?

[Unknown user]

4 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Are you under the impression an independent Scotland would walk away without having to accept any UK debt?

 

There's no historical precedence for it yet you're talking about it like it's fact, a done deal.

 

3 hours ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

I really don't think that would be a good idea for the sake of good relations with what would be by far our biggest trading partner and ally.

 

Scotland's population share of UK debt would be around £170bn. In post separation negotiations, it would probably be possible to forego its share of shared assets such as overseas territories (Gibraltar, the Falklands etc) in return for a reduction in debt. If Scotland could negotiate a 'call it quits' outcome i.e. no debt taken on but forego all shared assets, that would be an excellent outcome. 

 

Having negotiated that as a start point, it would be necessary to run a tight ship for a few years because it would begin its independent existence with a default, junk credit rating, and high borrowing costs. That could mean cuts and other unpopular decisions. But after a few years of good fiscal management, a credit rating would come and the purse strings could be loosened a bit.

 

I don't think the immediate aftermath of a pandemic and recession would be the best time to go - public finances will be in trouble all over the World. A relatively buoyant economy would be a much better start point.

 

 

 

As above, I'm not aware of a single example of it happening before, yet people talk about it like it's nailed on fact.

 

[Unknown user]

1 hour ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

Trying to be neutral and objective about it, I think Sturgeon and Co woulf remain actively  involved if still in favour  but under a renamed or different party. I would expect, with its core aim achieved, the SNP would splinter into left, centre and right with its individual MSPs joining whichever party they agreed with. 

 

I would expect something akin to Scottish Liberal, Labour and Conservative to form and battle it out accordingly.

 

 

Pretty much my thoughts, although our spectrum is likely to be further left than the UK's

[SwindonJambo]

10 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

There's no historical precedence for it yet you're talking about it like it's fact, a done deal.

 

 

As above, I'm not aware of a single example of it happening before, yet people talk about it like it's nailed on fact.

 

 

I don’t think it’s a nailed on fact as such but it would definitely be fairer. A simple forego shared assets and forego debt share might be a good outcome for all. Other countries that have split may not have had significant national debts so it may not have been an issue. The nearest one I can think of is Czechia and Slovakia going their ways in 1993 (after only 75 years together, without a referendum and with opinion polls in both countries favouring the Union!). The previous Czechoslovakia was dirt poor,  just recovering from 40 years of Communism and likely had very limited borrowing powers. Would be happy to know the facts though.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

Pretty much my thoughts, although our spectrum is likely to be further left than the UK's

 

I agree. The centre of gravity of Scottish Politics is definitely further left than England’s, and has been for most of its history. But a Scottish centre right party would almost certainly form and win seats in affluent areas. 

[Unknown user]

5 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

I don’t think it’s a nailed on fact as such but it would definitely be fairer. A simple forego shared assets and forego debt share might be a good outcome for all. Other countries that have split may not have had significant national debts so it may not have been an issue. The nearest one I can think of is Czechia and Slovakia going their ways in 1993 (after only 75 years together, without a referendum and with opinion polls in both countries favouring the Union!). The previous Czechoslovakia was dirt poor,  just recovering from 40 years of Communism and likely had very limited borrowing powers. Would be happy to know the facts though.

A slightly different situation, both sides formed "new" countries. In our case we're talking about Scotland leaving the union but leaving a union of England, Wales and NI behind.

 

In this way it's more akin to Lithuania or Moldova leaving the USSR, the existing legal entity is left behind and a new one is formed.

[SwindonJambo]

8 minutes ago, Smithee said:

A slightly different situation, both sides formed "new" countries. In our case we're talking about Scotland leaving the union but leaving a union of England, Wales and NI behind.

 

In this way it's more akin to Lithuania or Moldova leaving the USSR, the existing legal entity is left behind and a new one is formed.

 

Even so, it's very much in Scotland's interests to part from rUK on good terms if there is to be a good future relationship. 

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

Even so, it's very much in Scotland's interests to part from rUK on good terms if there is to be a good future relationship. 

 

The UK's even refusing to pay what we're legally meant to on leaving the EU, I'm not convinced Scotland should take on Westminster's reckless debt.

[SwindonJambo]

8 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

The UK's even refusing to pay what we're legally meant to on leaving the EU, I'm not convinced Scotland should take on Westminster's reckless debt.

 

It's been accumulated over decades, as has its assets. Much of the most recent growth in debt can be attributed to 2 events, the credit crunch and the Pandemic with Scotland affected and requiring an overspend just as much as any other part of the UK, if not more, considering Edinburgh's large banking industry and large tourist industry which has been hammered by the Pandemic, as has much of the rest of the economy everywhere. 

 

As I said, a friendly parting of ways between   2 civilised and developed nations, and remaining friends afterwards is in all our interests.

 

The breakup of the Soviet Union leaving Russia in its own isn't really a good comparison. It was a brutal murderous dictatorship with not one general election taking place during its existence. And violence and death was involved in the separation. All that has to happen here is to win a free and open vote.

 

 

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

It's been accumulated over decades, as has its assets. Much of the most recent growth in debt can be attributed to 2 events, the credit crunch and the Pandemic with Scotland affected and requiring an overspend just as much as any other part of the UK, if not more, considering Edinburgh's large banking industry and large tourist industry which has been hammered by the Pandemic, as has much of the rest of the economy everywhere. 

 

As I said, a friendly parting of ways between   2 civilised and developed nations, and remaining friends afterwards is in all our interests.

 

The breakup of the Soviet Union leaving Russia in its own isn't really a good comparison. It was a brutal murderous dictatorship with not one general election taking place during its existence. And violence and death was involved in the separation. All that has to happen here is to win a free and open vote.

 

 

Yeah that wasn't a close one either TBF,  but the point stands.

[coconut doug]

30 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

It's been accumulated over decades, as has its assets. Much of the most recent growth in debt can be attributed to 2 events, the credit crunch and the Pandemic with Scotland affected and requiring an overspend just as much as any other part of the UK, if not more, considering Edinburgh's large banking industry and large tourist industry which has been hammered by the Pandemic, as has much of the rest of the economy everywhere. 

 

As I said, a friendly parting of ways between   2 civilised and developed nations, and remaining friends afterwards is in all our interests.

 

The breakup of the Soviet Union leaving Russia in its own isn't really a good comparison. It was a brutal murderous dictatorship with not one general election taking place during its existence. And violence and death was involved in the separation. All that has to happen here is to win a free and open vote.

 

 

 

The break up of the Soviet Union was completed with very little violence given the scale and complexity of it. They had regular general elections too even if all candidates had to be members of the communist party. It's strange that so many citizens of the Soviet Union voted for it's retention (over 70% in every republic iirc) and yet it was dissolved.

   I do not believe that Westminster will ever grant another S30 order and if Scotland were to find it's own mandate Westminster would oppose it with everything they had including state violence. It will require more than the winning of a "free" vote, whatever that means. They treat us with contempt because they regard us so.

  The Scottish Banking industry made no contribution to the credit crunch. The speculators in the City lost the money and we now have their losses attributed to Scotland in the Gers figures. Had we been independent in 2008 we would not have been liable for the debts acrued by these banks.

  The payments from the Job retention scheme have been skewed to favour higher earning areas, specifically London and the SE of England.

[Justin Z]

7 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Where will an independent Scotland get the money to create a central bank? 

 

Good point, the United States has famously never had a central bank in its 244-year history.

[Justin Z]

6 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

Are you under the impression an independent Scotland would walk away without having to accept any UK debt?

 

. . . and still has never managed to pay off the share of the debt it took on from the UK post-independence.

[SwindonJambo]

19 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

. . . and still has never managed to pay off the share of the debt it took on from the UK post-independence.

It was a colony, with many of the colonials being Scots. Scotland isn't and has never been a colony.

[Justin Z]

22 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

It was a colony, with many of the colonials being Scots. Scotland isn't and has never been a colony.

The analogy is obviously not perfect, but that's irrelevant to the point (with the first point admittedly being more relevant than the second, which was more for humour's sake)

[SwindonJambo]

1 hour ago, Smithee said:

Yeah that wasn't a close one either TBF,  but the point stands.

Okay Smithee, you're a good egg so let's disagree agreeably 👍

 

I think if Scotland does go its way, it would be far better done on friendly terms. The Czech & Slovak split of 1993 is known as the velvet divorce and relations and co-operation remains very good.

 

It may pursue your route and good luck if so. I think it would be damaging to Scotland's reputation on the international stage if it just cut loose without a negotiated settlement.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, SwindonJambo said:

Okay Smithee, you're a good egg so let's disagree agreeably 👍

 

I think if Scotland does go its way, it would be far better done on friendly terms. The Czech & Slovak split of 1993 is known as the velvet divorce and relations and co-operation remains very good.

 

It may pursue your route and good luck if so. I think it would be damaging to Scotland's reputation on the international stage if it just cut loose without a negotiated settlement.

Well cheers, appreciate it 👍

I didnt mean anything about not negotiating though, I personally advocate a close relationship with England, a different type of union - customs union, freedom for workers etc. We'll have to be reasonable when we leave, to give and take, but I think it's also reasonable to question the assumption that an entirely new international precedent would be set, just because.

 

At the end of the day I just want the people of Scotland to decide who's running Scotland, we deserve that. I'm not in the **** England camp though. 

[Pans Jambo]

10 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

Okay Smithee, you're a good egg so let's disagree agreeably 👍

 

I think if Scotland does go its way, it would be far better done on friendly terms. The Czech & Slovak split of 1993 is known as the velvet divorce and relations and co-operation remains very good.

 

It may pursue your route and good luck if so. I think it would be damaging to Scotland's reputation on the international stage if it just cut loose without a negotiated settlement.

I would be up for a “velvet divorce” but do you thing the snakes in Westminster would? 
The nasty lizard party would do what they could to make it as difficult as possible. Cut of their nose off to spite their face al a Brexit. 
Its OK though, the Scots grown ups will sort it all out. 

Edited September 20, 2020 by Pans Jambo

[jack D and coke]

10 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

I would be up for a “velvet divorce” but do you thing the snakes in Westminster would? 
The nasty lizard party would do what they could to make it as difficult as possible. Cut of their nose off to spite their face al a Brexit. 
Its OK though, the Scots grown ups will sort it all out. 

I think there’s a lot of people here “Scots” that would be spiteful and vindictive never mind any WM government and attempt to cause or leave harm. I actually reckon the WM government might be pretty pragmatic in the end, I’d hope both countries would have a good relationship anyway. There’s not a lot to be gained by causing grief on the small island we’re on if that’s the course we decide to take. 

[Pans Jambo]

1 minute ago, jack D and coke said:

I think there’s a lot of people here “Scots” that would be spiteful and vindictive never mind any WM government and attempt to cause or leave harm. I actually reckon the WM government might be pretty pragmatic in the end, I’d hope both countries would have a good relationship anyway. There’s not a lot to be gained by causing grief on the small island we’re on if that’s the course we decide to take. 

Agreed but My fallback position is always “never trust a tory”. 
Refreshing to be discussing the divorce settlement though. 

[Pans Jambo]

Fine example of what “pooling and sharing” looked/looks like...

 

[ri Alban]

12 hours ago, SwindonJambo said:

It was a colony, with many of the colonials being Scots. Scotland isn't and has never been a colony.

🤣 Good yin.