The rise and fall of The SNP.

[ri Alban]

9 hours ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Get these people out of office. In the process of destroying education in Scotland which will see our young population suffer for decades to come. All because these selfish, self serving liars have put independence before everything.

Tick Tock!!!! 

 

The Saviours of Scotland will free Scotland from the Unionist traitors. 

[ri Alban]

7 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Would Scotland not need permission, maybe not the best way to describe it, from the Band of England or Westminster to  use sterling?

No, its called pegging.  We can use the US Dollar if we want. 

[GinRummy]

5 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Would Scotland not need permission, maybe not the best way to describe it, from the Band of England or Westminster to  use sterling?

similarly, Prof Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist, says a currency union would be accepted after a yes vote because the Scottish and UK economies were so closely intertwined. Stiglitz, one of Salmond’s key economic policy advisers, says the UK government is bluffing over its opposition to a currency union
 

From the last independence campaign. 

[GinRummy]

Just now, ri Alban said:

No, its called pegging.  We can use the US Dollar if we want. 

No. Pegging is where we have our own currency put peg it to sterling. Like the Irish done with the Irish pound for 50 years. If we continued to use sterling it would be as part of a currency union. 

[Dawnrazor]

Disadvantages of Pegged Currencies

The central bank of a country with a currency peg must monitor supply and demand and manage cash flow to avoid spikes in demand or supply. These spikes can cause a currency to stray from its pegged price. That means the central bank will need to hold large foreign exchange reserves to counter excessive buying or selling of its currency. Currency pegs affect forex trading by artificially stemming volatility

[Unknown user]

6 hours ago, 3fingersreid said:

That’s what I’m asking mate , I’m sure they wouldn’t be holding open any doors to make it easy. 

 

It's money, they don't own it, its not up to them. If we want to use the Burundian franc there's nothing anyone can do to stop us.

[ri Alban]

2 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

No. Pegging is where we have our own currency put peg it to sterling. Like the Irish done with the Irish pound for 50 years. If we continued to use sterling it would be as part of a currency union. 

We can leg our own or use sterling and no one can do a thing about it. That's my point. 

[Dawnrazor]

3 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

No. Pegging is where we have our own currency put peg it to sterling. Like the Irish done with the Irish pound for 50 years. If we continued to use sterling it would be as part of a currency union. 

So the "currency union" would be with England and The Bank of England?

[Unknown user]

4 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

No. Pegging is where we have our own currency put peg it to sterling. Like the Irish done with the Irish pound for 50 years. If we continued to use sterling it would be as part of a currency union. 

Not necessarily

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

It's money, they don't own it, its not up to them. If we want to use the Burundian franc there's nothing anyone can do to stop us.

But will the currency not need to be underwritten by another country/bank or it's just paper and tin?

[Unknown user]

Ecuador uses the US Dollar, but is not in a currency union with the US.

 

There's nothing to stop us using the gbp until we sort something else out.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

But will the currency not need to be underwritten by another country/bank or it's just paper and tin?

It already is.

[Dawnrazor]

Just now, Smithee said:

It already is.

By who?

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, Dawnrazor said:

Disadvantages of Pegged Currencies

The central bank of a country with a currency peg must monitor supply and demand and manage cash flow to avoid spikes in demand or supply. These spikes can cause a currency to stray from its pegged price. That means the central bank will need to hold large foreign exchange reserves to counter excessive buying or selling of its currency. Currency pegs affect forex trading by artificially stemming volatility

This would only become a problem if our economies were pulling in vastly different directions which is unlikely in the short term. I think the remaining uk would be happy to have a currency union initially because it would suit them as well. They’ve just cut the EU loose they’ll want close ties to us for sure. You’ve got to remember the size of our economy as well. It’d be different if a country say the size of France wanted to suddenly peg a new French Franc to sterling. 

[GinRummy]

7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Not necessarily

As I said farther up, I’m still learning this. So why not necessarily?

 

sorry you’ve answered above 👍
 

Another edit. I do think us just using it would be unlikely. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by GinRummy

[ri Alban]

2 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

By who?

Ireland used it for donkey's, it would be pure petty if England blocked Scotland using the pound, until it had its own. 

[Unknown user]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

By who?

I dont think I understand what you're asking. 

 

Just now, GinRummy said:

As I said farther up, I’m still learning this. So why not necessarily?

As above, Ecuador has no currency union with the US, but they use US dollars.

 

No permission is needed to use issued currency, it's issued, underwritten and free to roam the world. If we want to use bolivars til we sort ourselves out we can.

[GinRummy]

Just now, Smithee said:

I dont think I understand what you're asking. 

 

As above, Ecuador has no currency union with the US, but they use US dollars.

 

No permission is needed to use issued currency, it's issued, underwritten and free to roam the world. If we want to use bolivars til we sort ourselves out we can.

I made about three edits to the post you quoted 😀. I’m not concerned by the currency issue but think it unlikely we’ll just use it. The rest of the uk, regardless of what they say in a referendum, will be happy to have a currency union with us. 

[GinRummy]

4 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Ireland used it for donkey's, it would be pure petty if England blocked Scotland using the pound, until it had its own. 

They won’t. It’s scaremongering pure and simple. Dirty tricks campaign. The last recession proved sterling isn’t what it used to be anyway. No longer the safe haven it once was. 

[jack D and coke]

38 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Not doubting you but when did they decide the not sterling bit? I thought it was to be sterling for a time. Then possibly new currency, as you say pegged to sterling . Then not pegged to sterling.  

We’d likely be using sterling a while after any indy event but Sterling is tied to the BOE. Our currency (whatever they call it) won’t be, I don’t think. 
It’s not to say we couldn’t stay in the sterling zone but you’d be giving up a lot of economic freedom. 
Id also imagine the rUK would like some clarity. We can’t just say right we’ll use sterling for a bit then dump it as that will affect its value. Can’t just drop it when we see fit. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by jack D and coke

[GinRummy]

21 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

We can leg our own or use sterling and no one can do a thing about it. That's my point. 

Yeah I was being pedantic. Technically you can only peg a currency to another currency. So if we kept sterling we’d just keep sterling. No peg would be needed. 

[GinRummy]

Just now, jack D and coke said:

We’d likely be using sterling a while after any indy event but Sterling is tied to the BOE. Our currency (whatever they call it) won’t be, I don’t think. 
It’s not to say we couldn’t stay in the sterling zone but you’d be giving up a lot of economic freedom. 

It’s only my opinion but I don’t think there’s too much economic freedom, in the medium term, to give up. As an example, interest rates are sitting at 0.10%, what would an independent Scotland want to change interest rates to? During a recession, I doubt they’d change it at all, or very little. When our economy recovers, it’s extremely likely that the remaining uk’s will recover so interest rates would rise almost simultaneously anyway. Our economies are so closely tied.

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, GinRummy said:

It’s only my opinion but I don’t think there’s too much economic freedom, in the medium term, to give up. As an example, interest rates are sitting at 0.10%, what would an independent Scotland want to change interest rates to? During a recession, I doubt they’d change it at all, or very little. When our economy recovers, it’s extremely likely that the remaining uk’s will recover so interest rates would rise almost simultaneously anyway. Our economies are so closely tied.

This is why I favour independence then a new form of close relationship, it makes sense to have a close relationship. 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

This is why I favour independence then a new form of close relationship, it makes sense to have a close relationship. 

Regardless of what Scotland or the rest of the uk say in an independence campaign we will continue to have a close relationship with them. All the bullshit about economic Armageddon for Scotland after independence is just that. The currency issue is just not an issue in reality. 
 

I didn’t vote for Brexit but remember the scaremongering during that. If Britain leaves the eu the financial industry will collapse? It’ll be a disaster for the economy? Won’t happen. There will be a few bumps in the road but the uk will continue to be a rich prosperous country and after Scottish independence so will we.

[jack D and coke]

18 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

It’s only my opinion but I don’t think there’s too much economic freedom, in the medium term, to give up. As an example, interest rates are sitting at 0.10%, what would an independent Scotland want to change interest rates to? During a recession, I doubt they’d change it at all, or very little. When our economy recovers, it’s extremely likely that the remaining uk’s will recover so interest rates would rise almost simultaneously anyway. Our economies are so closely tied.

Yeah I agree with all that mate tbh. 

[GinRummy]

How does GDP affect currency exchange rates?

If you have any international money dealings, then you probably know that currency exchange rates play an important role in your choices and their timing. Exchange rates, in turn, are constantly influenced by a country’s GDP data. While the relationship isn’t direct, it is quite strong.

Broadly speaking, GDP can affect currency exchange rates in three main ways.

Firstly, when a country’s GDP rises, its currency’s worth also rises. It works the same way in the other direction, too. When a country’s GDP falls, its currency also weakens.

When a country’s GDP dips, it means the nation’s economic growth is slowing down or stabilizing. However, when a country’s GDP drops to negative numbers, that's bad news. It means the economy is actually shrinking - there's loss of productivity and purchasing and, as a result, a loss of jobs. In other words, it likely means the nation is experiencing a recession. As a result, there’s usually a fairly large incentive to keep a country’s GDP on a positive growth trajectory.

GDP fluctuations aren’t the only way GDP can influence a currency’s worth and its subsequent exchange rates.

Secondly, investors and international corporations use GDP to inform many of their investment decisions.

Investors usually prefer putting their money in countries that indicate high GDP growth rates. Because investment usually strengthens the currency of that country, GDP has an indirect influence over it through affecting investment decisions.

Thirdly, most national central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, also take GDP growth rates into consideration when deciding whether or not they should change interest rates.

GDP growth rate can sometimes be an indicator of inflationary activity in the country, and most central banks use interest rates to manage inflation. Inflation, on the other hand, has a very large impact on a currency’s value.

For instance, imagine a nation’s Nominal GDP is trending upwards at an unusual pace. This isn’t always a good sign, and it may mean that something isn’t going as expected with the production dynamics of that country.

Skyrocketing GDP could mean a number of things:

1. more goods are being produced at the same prices as before
2. the same amount of goods are being produced, but at higher prices
3. more goods are being produced and the prices are higher at the same time

Each of the above scenarios results in central banks making different decisions. For example, in the second scenario when the same amount of goods were being produced but at higher prices. Meaning that while economic activity may be stagnating, consumers would still be strapped with higher prices. Usually, in such cases, central banks like the Federal Reserve intervene by changing interest rates. Higher or lower interest rates often, in turn, affect the country’s currency value and cause investors to either pour more money into the nation, or take money out of investments there.

[jack D and coke]

5 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Regardless of what Scotland or the rest of the uk say in an independence campaign we will continue to have a close relationship with them. All the bullshit about economic Armageddon for Scotland after independence is just that. The currency issue is just not an issue in reality. 
 

I didn’t vote for Brexit but remember the scaremongering during that. If Britain leaves the eu the financial industry will collapse? It’ll be a disaster for the economy? Won’t happen. There will be a few bumps in the road but the uk will continue to be a rich prosperous country and after Scottish independence so will we.

You’d hope we’ll have a really close relationship going forward and I’d be staggered if we didn’t. It’s almost like some unionists see an Indy vote as a declaration of war or something it’s embarrassing, there’s no hate and pragmatism would take over after the event. We wouldn’t get everything we want and neither would the rUK. 
Are there some dicks? Well of course but it’s a tiny amount of them and they should be ignored. 

[GinRummy]

Sorry for the lengthy post above but this is partly why a new currency is not going to plummet. Our GDP and our GDP per capita will determine how our currency is viewed and traded in the markets. This is why a period of stability after independence is necessary before a currency is put into exchange markets. Imo, of course 

[GinRummy]

3 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

You’d hope we’ll have a really close relationship going forward and I’d be staggered if we didn’t. It’s almost like some unionists see an Indy vote as a declaration of war or something it’s embarrassing, there’s no hate and pragmatism would take over after the event. We wouldn’t get everything we want and neither would the rUK. 
Are there some dicks? Well of course but it’s a tiny amount of them and they should be ignored. 

Couldn’t agree more. There are dicks on both sides and they’re loud as ****. 

[Roxy Hearts]

1 hour ago, Dawnrazor said:

Would Scotland not need permission, maybe not the best way to describe it, from the Band of England or Westminster to  use sterling?

It's the bank of UK. It will be Fxxxxd without Scotland. We will use Sterling or Westminster will shxx its pants! Reality and real politik will set in. 

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Roxy Hearts said:

It's the bank of UK. It will be Fxxxxd without Scotland. We will use Sterling or Westminster will shxx its pants! Reality and real politik will set in. 

But Scotland will be out of the UK.

[GinRummy]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

But Scotland will be out of the UK.

It doesn’t matter. Our currency will be judged on how we’re performing economically. It’ll be launched after the economy stabilises following independence. Currency is judged on economic formulas and all that boring stuff. Scotland is a rich country in comparison to most. We won’t suddenly become poor with a worthless currency after independence. 

[Dawnrazor]

6 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

. We won’t suddenly become poor with a worthless currency after independence. 

I don't expect it will, I just can't get my head around a lot of it.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Dawnrazor

[manaliveits105]

Neither can the snp 

[GinRummy]

10 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

I don't expect it will, I just can't get my head around a lot of it.

Didn’t mean to say you were. Very broadly speaking a countries currency is valued on how rich that country is. The BoE doesn’t really come into it. There’s quite a lot more to it than that but if you look up GDP and GDP per capita it’ll give you a broad idea on how currency is valued. The reason the snp wouldn’t launch a currency immediately after independence is because the markets could only go on the Scottish economy before independence, so it would be a huge risk. Once we’ve stabilised and can produce numbers as an independent country it would be safer to launch and trade a currency. 
 

When people talk about a new currency giving us economic freedoms there are several factors to that. One of the main ones is interest rates. A country sets its own interest rates. Higher interest rates generally strengthen a currency having the knock on effect of making exports expensive and imports less so. The opposite is true if the country has low interest rates as the currency is less attractive to buyers. 

[SwindonJambo]

3 hours ago, GinRummy said:

Not sure how timing would effect a new currency in the market. If it’s the type of thing you’d want to launch in a recession for example. I think it’s a sensible approach to keep our options open and not put a timescale on it. Our economy and interest rate policy is unlikely to be vastly different from the remaining UK in the short term. 
 

Been looking into this a bit since discussing with a poster on this thread last week and I think the SNP have called it right. 

 

That might have been me. Some respectful and informed adult like debate has broken out on this thread. Much more edifying than the frequent mud slinging. The currency position you outline is sensible. If that had been the policy in 2014, I believe  the vote would have been closer.

[Dawnrazor]

58 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

Didn’t mean to say you were. Very broadly speaking a countries currency is valued on how rich that country is. The BoE doesn’t really come into it. There’s quite a lot more to it than that but if you look up GDP and GDP per capita it’ll give you a broad idea on how currency is valued. The reason the snp wouldn’t launch a currency immediately after independence is because the markets could only go on the Scottish economy before independence, so it would be a huge risk. Once we’ve stabilised and can produce numbers as an independent country it would be safer to launch and trade a currency. 
 

When people talk about a new currency giving us economic freedoms there are several factors to that. One of the main ones is interest rates. A country sets its own interest rates. Higher interest rates generally strengthen a currency having the knock on effect of making exports expensive and imports less so. The opposite is true if the country has low interest rates as the currency is less attractive to buyers. 

👍

[GinRummy]

5 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

That might have been me. Some respectful and informed adult like debate has broken out on this thread. Much more edifying than the frequent mud slinging. The currency position you outline is sensible. If that had been the policy in 2014, I believe  the vote would have been closer.

It was you mate. 👍

[Dawnrazor]

8 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

The currency position you outline is sensible. If that had been the policy in 2014, I believe  the vote would have been closer.

This  brings me back to my point, how can there still be this confusion for some, me and others I suspect,?

I'd have thought the SNP would be shouting thier plans for the currency from the roof tops.

If it's as simple, relatively, as some sensible posters have painted it, obviously the nuances would have to be ironed out, but a plan at least would put this to bed.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Dawnrazor

[Space Mackerel]

9 hours ago, SE16 3LN said:

 

 

To re-enter the EU, and in spite of the Nationalist opinion on here, Scotland will have to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism and then at some time, the Euro, if the Euro even exists by then. Again Scotland will lose much independence over its own economy. Bottle tops are not an option I'm afraid but it will be for the people to decide.

 

Do you actually read the thread or just come on to lie and spout utter drivel you have no idea about?

 

https://theferret.scot/scotland-deficit-3-per-cent-eu/

 

[Space Mackerel]

Ruthie and Doogie caught telling porkies already. Who never saw that coming? 😁

 

[Dawnrazor]

And the thread thread takes the inevitable nose dive back it's normal level😞

[Space Mackerel]

11 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

And the thread thread takes the inevitable nose dive back it's normal level😞

 

Sorry pal.

 

[SwindonJambo]

29 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

And the thread thread takes the inevitable nose dive back it's normal level😞

 

Yes indeed. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Maybe the adult posters (on both sides) can reconvene at some point.

Edited August 5, 2020 by SwindonJambo

[Space Mackerel]

1 minute ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

Yes indeed. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Maybe the adult posters can reconvene at some point.

 

The Faroe Islands are on a par with the UK and France now.

 

Now you're going to explain why Scotland is perpetually seen as "too wee, too poor and too stupid?"

[Dawnrazor]

5 minutes ago, SwindonJambo said:

 

Yes indeed. Oh well, it was good while it lasted. Maybe the adult posters (on both sides) can reconvene at some point.

🤞

[Space Mackerel]

20 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

🤞

 

They hate me 👆

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, Space Mackerel said:

 

They hate me 👆

I really don't. 

[Space Mackerel]

5 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

I really don't. 

 

I did say that with Brexit and all the auld duffers turning to worm food that independence was inevitable?

 

 

[SwindonJambo]

10 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

I really don't. 

Nor me.