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The rise and fall of The SNP.


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2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

If one were being unkind, one might suggest that The Conservative Party have teetered on achieving the same since their return to power under Cameron... 😜 

 

explain where the money for the SNP bribes and freebies is coming from.  

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dobmisterdobster
56 minutes ago, Boris said:

Begs the question, if folk can't understand the system, do they deserve the vote?

It's not that hard.

 

STV is atrocious. You number all the candidates and after several runoffs and some algorithms, the bloke who finished third wins.

It's not the voters fault for misunderstanding this monstrosity. All they want to do is put a cross next to their preferred candidate.

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I can see why SNP allottmenteers might vote Green. Grow you own will be quite profitable and necessary once food prices soar. I would also expect food shortages with a hard border. Good thinking.  

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2 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Is this one of the questions in next year's Standard Grade Modern Studies paper? :) 

 

It should be, min. Give these 16 y/o's that the SNP have given suffrage to something relevant and topical. 

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Enzo Chiefo
12 minutes ago, jonesy said:

If one were being unkind, one might suggest that The Conservative Party have teetered on achieving the same since their return to power under Cameron... 😜 

You certainly would have to be unkind to make a suggestion like that, Jonesy😎

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Swahili Jambo

I am absolutely 10000% loving the fear and loathing on this thread.  Latest odds just in, and there is no change, SNP 1/200.  Nuff said, the game is over.  Enjoy another 5 years of Wee Nick (or more when the SNP get YES).  Tickety ****in tick tock.  

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Cairneyhill Jambo

So, when the SNP get a majority government, what will the buzzword bingo favourites from the usual suspects be? 

 

- a low turnout of voters because of [insert excuse here]

- Nicoliar lied?

- but but but but

 

Can't wait to see the tears and snotters on here when the thread is changed to the rise of the SNP. 

 

:glorious:

 

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1 hour ago, dobmisterdobster said:

 

STV is atrocious. You number all the candidates and after several runoffs and some algorithms, the bloke who finished third wins.

It's not the voters fault for misunderstanding this monstrosity. All they want to do is put a cross next to their preferred candidate.

 

STV in multi-seat constituencies is the best voting system in the world.  It's also a godsend for people who are into political drama.  Irish general elections make for great TV, a bit like watching a cross between a car crash and a full series of Line of Duty.

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Cairneyhill Jambo
4 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

Are you saying out loud, on this thread, that you are 100% behind the notion that the SNP will win a majority?

Yes. 

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Swahili Jambo
1 minute ago, Zlatanable said:

Are you saying out loud, on this thread, that you are 100% behind the notion that the SNP will win a majority?

I can't speak for said poster but the answer is YES.  Are you really as stupid as this in real life?  The answer is YES YES YES.  Want tae see a bookies update on the odds?  

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2 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

 

 

We will certainly be addressing this exchange in the future, won't we. 

 

I think it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that the SNP will win an overall majority - but that's not the same as saying I think they will do so.  The system is designed to prevent that happening.  Right now, if the vote tomorrow follows the trend in the last few days of opinion polling - which is what happened in 2011 and 2016 - then you'd expect the SNP to gain a couple of constituencies, but lose a couple of regional seats, leading to a net position the same as last time.  But I'll do some number-crunching and nail my colours to the mast later.  I always enjoy calling election results, even when I'm wrong.

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48 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

So that is my prediction, The SNP  will not win a majority at the Holyrood election of 2021. 

 

That's easy to say.  It's harder to say why.  It looks at the moment as if the SNP will poll more in the constituencies, but less in the regions.  I suspect there's enough in the increased constituency vote to deliver 5 extra SNP seats:

 

Edinburgh Central - last won by Ruth Davidson, CON, by 610 votes (2.9%).

Edinburgh Southern - last won by Daniel Johnson, LAB, by 1,123 votes (2.9%).

Ayr - last won by John Scott, CON, by 750 votes (2.0%), though there could be a spoiler here for the SNP.

East Lothian - last won by Iain Gray, LAB, by 1,727 votes (3.0%).

Dumbarton - last won by Jackie Baillie, LAB, by 109 votes (0.3%).

 

However, the extra seats in Ayr and East Lothian will cause the SNP to lose 2 regional seats in South Scotland directly, and if their regional vote falls in line with the opinion polls they will lose another.  Also, if the regional vote falls in line with the polls in Highlands and Islands the SNP will lose its one regional seat, without gaining any constituencies.

 

The SNP majority is on a knife-edge, but it is still a realistic prospect.  All the predictions based on opinion polls are that the changes would be uniformly distributed across Scotland.  But a very small deviation in either Highlands and Islands or South Scotland would see the SNP hold on to one of those regional seats - and if that happens the SNP would reach 65 seats.

 

So the most likely result is that the SNP will gain 5 constituency seats and lose 4 regional seats (3 in South Scotland, 1 in Highlands and Islands) - meaning the SNP will go from 63 to 64, one seat short of a majority.

 

My gut instincts are warning me about the Green wave not materialising everywhere, and also about Highlands and Islands still returning one SNP MSP.  But we'll just have to see.  So based on the number-crunching available I'll go for SNP 64, Conservatives 29, Labour 20, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 5.

Edited by Ulysses
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Swahili Jambo
44 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

I literally have not a single clue what will happen in this Holyrood election. Which is why I have not attempted to speculate. (you have, others have too,it is a brave call to do so imo)

 

I disagree with you on this part of your statement - "I think it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that the SNP will win an overall majority - but that's not the same as saying I think they will do so." I think it is impossible that the SNP will win a majority at this election.

 

So that is my prediction, The SNP  will not win a majority at the Holyrood election of 2021.  

 

 

Oh, they will be a huge margin.  And it's an independence referendum after that.  The people of Scotland can't be denied. Tick tock. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Candy said:

@Ulysses were you a moderator on here?

 

I was on the JKB management team for seven years until early 2015.

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If the SNP win an overall majority in tomorrow's election, do we get to rename this thread "The fall and rise of the SNP"? ;) 

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dobmisterdobster
2 hours ago, Swahili Jambo said:

I am absolutely 10000% loving the fear and loathing on this thread.  Latest odds just in, and there is no change, SNP 1/200.  Nuff said, the game is over.  Enjoy another 5 years of Wee Nick (or more when the SNP get YES).  Tickety ****in tick tock.  

 

200 to 1 on that SNP wins the most seats. Not whether they win a majority.

The SNP winning the most seats is as surprising as Rangers or Celtic winning the league.

Will they win the 65 seats they need for a majority? It's 50/50.

 

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26 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I was on the JKB management team for seven years until early 2015.

Time flies. Thank you for your service to this fine establishment 

 

However, given your background, is it OK to call other posters a "bullshitter"? 

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27 minutes ago, Candy said:

Time flies. Thank you for your service to this fine establishment

 

I haven't been involved for over six years.  What an oddball thing to post.

 

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51 minutes ago, redjambo said:

If the SNP win an overall majority in tomorrow's election, do we get to rename this thread "The fall and rise of the SNP"? ;) 

 

We don't.  It's more like "the plateau and plateau of the SNP".  What does bear mentioning is that anywhere else, the party in government would be taking a beating in the polls, almost regardless of performance.  These days political incumbency is toxic, so it says something that the SNP are holding at the same level of support that they've had for years.  It either means that a lot of people are treating independence as their overriding political priority, or else that they really have little respect for the quality of the opposition.

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1 hour ago, Ulysses said:

 

That's easy to say.  It's harder to say why.  It looks at the moment as if the SNP will poll more in the constituencies, but less in the regions.  I suspect there's enough in the increased constituency vote to deliver 5 extra SNP seats:

 

Edinburgh Central - last won by Ruth Davidson, CON, by 610 votes (2.9%).

Edinburgh Southern - last won by Daniel Johnson, LAB, by 1,123 votes (2.9%).

Ayr - last won by John Scott, CON, by 750 votes (2.0%), though there could be a spoiler here for the SNP.

East Lothian - last won by Iain Gray, LAB, by 1,727 votes (3.0%).

Dumbarton - last won by Jackie Baillie, LAB, by 109 votes (0.3%).

 

However, the extra seats in Ayr and East Lothian will cause the SNP to lose 2 regional seats in South Scotland directly, and if their regional vote falls in line with the opinion polls they will lose another.  Also, if the regional vote falls in line with the polls in Highlands and Islands the SNP will lose its one regional seat, without gaining any constituencies.

 

The SNP majority is on a knife-edge, but it is still a realistic prospect.  All the predictions based on opinion polls are that the changes would be uniformly distributed across Scotland.  But a very small deviation in either Highlands and Islands or South Scotland would see the SNP hold on to one of those regional seats - and if that happens the SNP would reach 65 seats.

 

So the most likely result is that the SNP will gain 5 constituency seats and lose 4 regional seats (3 in South Scotland, 1 in Highlands and Islands) - meaning the SNP will go from 63 to 64, one seat short of a majority.

 

My gut instincts are warning me about the Green wave not materialising everywhere, and also about Highlands and Islands still returning one SNP MSP.  But we'll just have to see.  So based on the number-crunching available I'll go for SNP 64, Conservatives 29, Labour 20, Green 11, Liberal Democrats 5.

 

I forgot to mention that West Aberdeenshire is an outlier.  It's the only seat in NE Scotland that the SNP didn't win last time, and it's a marginal.  The SNP could win it, and it would cost them no loss of a regional seat.  So even though I'm thinking 64 seats for the SNP, there are at least 3 ways in which they could get to an overall majority.  But that all assumes that the voting will follow the latest opinion polls.

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Mars plastic
4 hours ago, Swahili Jambo said:

Oh, they will be a huge margin.  And it's an independence referendum after that.  The people of Scotland can't be denied. Tick tock. 

 

We weren’t denied as we voted on it in 2014. Result was no if I remember correctly so just pipe yersel doon, wee man. 

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Unknown user
3 hours ago, Candy said:

Time flies. Thank you for your service to this fine establishment 

 

However, given your background, is it OK to call other posters a "bullshitter"? 

 

❄️

 

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31 minutes ago, Mars plastic said:

We weren’t denied as we voted on it in 2014. Result was no if I remember correctly so just pipe yersel doon, wee man. 

Think he means the people won't be denied another one as that's what has been mandated by the electorate.

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Mars plastic
4 minutes ago, Boris said:

Think he means the people won't be denied another one as that's what has been mandated by the electorate.

I'm not being denied anything. Like I said, we voted in 2014 and the people of Scotland made their choice. The snp will have us locked in a cycle of perpetual referendums until they get the result they want, at the continued detriment of a country that's already in deep shite due to their complete ineptitude in government. 

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Just now, Mars plastic said:

I'm not being denied anything. Like I said, we voted in 2014 and the people of Scotland made their choice. The snp will have us locked in a cycle of perpetual referendums until they get the result they want, at the continued detriment of a country that's already in deep shite due to their complete ineptitude in government. 

If an indy supporting majority keeps getting returned to Holyrood then it shows that the electorate are backing those parties.

Just because you don't want it doesn't mean it isn't going to happen.

 

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manaliveits105
24 minutes ago, Boris said:

Think he means the people won't be denied another one as that's what has been mandated by the electorate.

But it’s not Sturgeon is saying vote for me to continue guiding you through the pandemic - which some dafties might fall for - and yet these votes will miraculously be transformed from a vote for her sage guidance to a people’s mandate for a referendum - she is being deceitful as usual trying to prey on people’s ignorance.

Come any indyref however when it’s a simple yes or no her erse is oot the Windae - not a hope in hell 

 

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9 hours ago, Candy said:

One vote per qualifying voter seems fair.

 

I've no idea what the outcome would be on that system.

 

SNP would get about 90% of the seats. 

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38 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

But it’s not Sturgeon is saying vote for me to continue guiding you through the pandemic - which some dafties might fall for - and yet these votes will miraculously be transformed from a vote for her sage guidance to a people’s mandate for a referendum - she is being deceitful as usual trying to prey on people’s ignorance.

Come any indyref however when it’s a simple yes or no her erse is oot the Windae - not a hope in hell 

 

I think the SNP have been quite transparent regards wanting another indy ref. 

Prey on people's ignorance. Lolz. Really?

But you are right, come a referendum vote how you wish. That's why I don't understand unionist fear of holding one, if so confident of winning it.

No wins, nothing changes. Democracy satisfied.

Yes wins and again democracy is satisfied.

The people should get what they vote for.

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22 minutes ago, Boris said:

I think the SNP have been quite transparent regards wanting another indy ref. 

Prey on people's ignorance. Lolz. Really?

But you are right, come a referendum vote how you wish. That's why I don't understand unionist fear of holding one, if so confident of winning it.

No wins, nothing changes. Democracy satisfied.

Yes wins and again democracy is satisfied.

The people should get what they vote for.


 

Why is it always assumed not wanting a referendum is because of fear of the result ? We’ve had one and instead of using the time since to make the country better the snp are running into the ground. They have missed most of their targets and promises, their health and education record is terrible. Maybe the fear is justified. 

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Maroon Sailor

Scotland voting SNP is like a turkey voting for Christmas

 

Absolute shambles of a record in government but they still get in.

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8 minutes ago, Dazo said:


 

Why is it always assumed not wanting a referendum is because of fear of the result ? We’ve had one and instead of using the time since to make the country better the snp are running into the ground. They have missed most of their targets and promises, their health and education record is terrible. Maybe the fear is justified. 

But if so confident of victory, then surely it would put it to bed, more so than 2014?

 

Regards the SNPs record, why is it that the electorate still trust them and continue to vote for them in huge numbers?

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9 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

Scotland voting SNP is like a turkey voting for Christmas

 

Absolute shambles of a record in government but they still get in.

 

Look at the opposition parties then.  Why can't they usurp this terrible government?

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Maroon Sailor
6 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Look at the opposition parties then.  Why can't they usurp this terrible government?

 

Because they don't have another Indy Ref at the heart of their campaign.

 

If another Indy Ref was not a card for them do you honestly believe the SNP would get in with their track record ?

 

Why don't they say we'll take it off the table for at least this forthcoming term and see what the results are then?

 

About time Scotland wised up to these charlatans.

 

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Ron Burgundy
18 minutes ago, Boris said:

But if so confident of victory, then surely it would put it to bed, more so than 2014?

 

Regards the SNPs record, why is it that the electorate still trust them and continue to vote for them in huge numbers?

With the country split down the middle it would not be put to bed regardless of the results. And should Yes win then No voters have every right to demand another.

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JudyJudyJudy
2 hours ago, Mars plastic said:

I'm not being denied anything. Like I said, we voted in 2014 and the people of Scotland made their choice. The snp will have us locked in a cycle of perpetual referendums until they get the result they want, at the continued detriment of a country that's already in deep shite due to their complete ineptitude in government. 

If Boris is canny , which I very much doubt he will agree to a section 30 . It’s the wise thing to do . It will appease those clamouring for a Ref . He will take a gamble but I think he would agree to it on the codicil that there is legal agreement that there wol

not be another ref for a period of say 20 years ( if no ) . NS would agree to this . I would then Expect her to drag out a Indy campaign for a few years until 2023/4 at the earliest as she wants to remain in her job as I would guess that the answer will still be no. 

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Mars plastic
17 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

Because they don't have another Indy Ref at the heart of their campaign.

 

If another Indy Ref was not a card for them do you honestly believe the SNP would get in with their track record ?

 

Why don't they say we'll take it off the table for at least this forthcoming term and see what the results are then?

 

About time Scotland wised up to these charlatans.

 

It’s astounding how many of the electorate continue to vote for them as their record in government is criminal. You go through their cabinet and there’s not one I’d let run my bath, let alone the country. 

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JudyJudyJudy
37 minutes ago, Boris said:

But if so confident of victory, then surely it would put it to bed, more so than 2014?

 

Regards the SNPs record, why is it that the electorate still trust them and continue to vote for them in huge numbers?

Yes if we had a another ref and it was no then it needs put to bed for a generation and I’m not talking about a Govan type generation of 5 years 😂 I mean 25/30 years . It always seem to be the main topic of political discussion on debates etc . Like the other night they were talking about “ what currency would Scotland use if independent “ etc . These things are completely irrelevant at the current time when we have an economic crisis and health pandemic to sort out . Concentrate on the here and now issues . It’s classic deflection 

Edited by JamesM48
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6 minutes ago, Mars plastic said:

It’s astounding how many of the electorate continue to vote for them as their record in government is criminal. You go through their cabinet and there’s not one I’d let run my bath, let alone the country. 

 

The cult is focused on Sturgeon. If it was a Swinney, Yousaf or Forbes instead they'd melt away which is part of why I am against ref2. As long as Sturgeon is the one beating the drum it has a chance. She says 21-26 is her last term, probably lying per usual albeit. 

Edited by JackLadd
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Mars plastic
1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

The cult is focused on Sturgeon. If it was a Swinney, Yousaf or Forbes instead they'd melt away which is part of why I am against ref2. As long as Sturgeon is the one beating the drum it has a chance. She says 21-26 is her last term, probably lying per usual albeit. 

Aah, wee Forbes, Secretary for Finance who studied history at uni. 

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40 minutes ago, Boris said:

But if so confident of victory, then surely it would put it to bed, more so than 2014?

 

Regards the SNPs record, why is it that the electorate still trust them and continue to vote for them in huge numbers?


It’s so close either way Boris will it ever be put to bed ? 50% or there about s of the electorate will never be happy. With the vote so close I don’t thing a change is correct. 
 

Regarding your 2nd point I think the opposition is so poor a lot of people don’t see an alternative. Labour are a joke up here, the conservatives will always struggle up here especially during tough times as they are the blame party, younger voters and the diehards keep them in power. 

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30 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

Because they don't have another Indy Ref at the heart of their campaign.

 

If another Indy Ref was not a card for them do you honestly believe the SNP would get in with their track record ?

 

Why don't they say we'll take it off the table for at least this forthcoming term and see what the results are then?

 

About time Scotland wised up to these charlatans.

 

So in other words people are voting for them BECAUSE they are offering an Indy Ref?

 

That would suggest that is what the people want?  Or rather, that's what people who vote for Indy parties want?

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26 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

With the country split down the middle it would not be put to bed regardless of the results. And should Yes win then No voters have every right to demand another.

 

Of course they could, that's how democracy works.

 

Would be interesting to see if rUK would want us back...

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Maroon Sailor
Just now, Boris said:

So in other words people are voting for them BECAUSE they are offering an Indy Ref?

 

That would suggest that is what the people want?  Or rather, that's what people who vote for Indy parties want?

 

I'm saying if they take Indy Ref off the table it would be interesting to see what the results are

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11 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Yes if we had a another ref and it was no then it needs put to bed for a generation and I’m not talking about a Govan type generation of 5 years 😂 I mean 25/30 years . It always seem to be the main topic of political discussion on debates etc . Like the other night they were talking about “ what currency would Scotland use if independent “ etc . These things are completely irrelevant at the current time when we have an economic crisis and health pandemic to sort out . Concentrate on the here and now issues . It’s classic deflection 

 

There wouldn't be talk of another indy ref were it not for Brexit.  Material change and all that.

 

Re the debate on currencies - brought up by unionist politicians.  the Tories seem to need a looming Indy Ref as much as the SNP!  

 

This is a parliamentary election, not an indy ref.  If/when there is an indy ref that's when those types of topics should be debated, imo.

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3 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

I'm saying if they take Indy Ref off the table it would be interesting to see what the results are

 

Same token, let the Tories put it on their manifesto!

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JudyJudyJudy
4 minutes ago, BarneyBattles said:

 

 

There is absolutely no chance any pro-independence party would agree to a referendum on the understanding that if the country votes against it, there couldn't be another one for 20-30 years. Not a hope in hell, and to be honest I'd be fuming if they did. At the most they would agree with a clause similar to the one which is now pushing indyref2 'fundamental change.....'.

 

I think there will be one towards the end of the next parliament but the only way the anti-SNP brigade are getting rid of them in Government is if the country votes for independence. I think their support would then start to fall away. Otherwise, you're stuck with them I'm afraid.

I’m not bothered either way whether we have an Indy ref or not . It’s not a priority for me anymore . I’d rather see businesses back up running , people who have their jobs working again , mental health services at levels enough to support the  avalanche of referrals they will receive post covid , same with physical Health issues , and other parts of the economy , 

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Des Lynam
2 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

Of course they could, that's how democracy works.

 

Would be interesting to see if rUK would want us back...


Come on Boris you can’t have a situation where the Independence topic is brought up for argument sake every ten years. The economic uncertainty would be a problem. 

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JudyJudyJudy
1 minute ago, Boris said:

 

There wouldn't be talk of another indy ref were it not for Brexit.  Material change and all that.

 

Re the debate on currencies - brought up by unionist politicians.  the Tories seem to need a looming Indy Ref as much as the SNP!  

 

This is a parliamentary election, not an indy ref.  If/when there is an indy ref that's when those types of topics should be debated, imo.

Yes I agree that it suits the Tories to talk about currencies etc during election campaigns etc as it triggers the fear in people so they are just as bad as the snp in discussing ref issues instead of current issues 

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