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The rise and fall of The SNP.


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26 minutes ago, Ked said:

Is it just me or will those 16 and 17 year old voter be 18 at the next General election.

Where the piece has some credence is none of the main stream parties will back a referendum.

However deals are done if there is a hung parliament.

So hypothetically would anyone support and SNP pledge to support any party in return for a referendum?

There's no chance the supreme court will or even can give the judgement she seeks.

 


I think it makes some reasonable points though. As you say the current crop of 16/17 year olds will be 18, however given how the vote breaks down across age groups, you’re looking at a good 66-70% of any 16/17 age cohort going yes. Those additional votes on top of the high Indy preference of 18-24s can’t be banked. 
 

Secondly, we all know what younger turnout is like for elections. Even with a declaration of “de facto” referendum from the SNP, how many 18-30 year olds will be arsed showing up? Especially if a lot of their news is focussing on the usual GE type coverage anyway. 
 

It is quite interesting to consider especially as you say, there is a snowball’s chance in hell of the Supreme Court giving her the judgement she seeks. 

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13 minutes ago, BlueRiver said:


I think it makes some reasonable points though. As you say the current crop of 16/17 year olds will be 18, however given how the vote breaks down across age groups, you’re looking at a good 66-70% of any 16/17 age cohort going yes. Those additional votes on top of the high Indy preference of 18-24s can’t be banked. 
 

Secondly, we all know what younger turnout is like for elections. Even with a declaration of “de facto” referendum from the SNP, how many 18-30 year olds will be arsed showing up? Especially if a lot of their news is focussing on the usual GE type coverage anyway. 
 

It is quite interesting to consider especially as you say, there is a snowball’s chance in hell of the Supreme Court giving her the judgement she seeks. 

All true.

It's really down to how the SNP campaign.As you say the media will focus on other issues which is double edged regarding the 18-24 bracket.

So if they turn blank on that then the SNP need to get them out to vote on that single issue.

I think the SNP will stroll any election up here which will probably secure a Tory win.

Labour just don't cut it with Starmer.

But it could be at best from and independence point of view tight.

That's why I asked would independence voters accept the SNP supporting any party to government in exchange for giving a referendum?

Sturgeon will be gone soon probably to some better paid position and while she's been competent she hasn't got near to what Salmond achieved in delivering independence.

I do think the best chance for a referendum may come from propping up a party at Westminster after a GE.

I wonder how well that would go down if it was a Tory party.

And even if any main stream party would touch it.The referendums of both brexit and our independence have been sore ones .

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1 minute ago, Ked said:

All true.

It's really down to how the SNP campaign.As you say the media will focus on other issues which is double edged regarding the 18-24 bracket.

So if they turn blank on that then the SNP need to get them out to vote on that single issue.

I think the SNP will stroll any election up here which will probably secure a Tory win.

Labour just don't cut it with Starmer.

But it could be at best from and independence point of view tight.

That's why I asked would independence voters accept the SNP supporting any party to government in exchange for giving a referendum?

Sturgeon will be gone soon probably to some better paid position and while she's been competent she hasn't got near to what Salmond achieved in delivering independence.

I do think the best chance for a referendum may come from propping up a party at Westminster after a GE.

I wonder how well that would go down if it was a Tory party.

And even if any main stream party would touch it.The referendums of both brexit and our independence have been sore ones .


I’m not sure I could see any such deal being made with one of the likely power holders in Westminster. 
 

I’d imagine if your entire purpose is that referendum then they would be in a corner if the Tories offered it as a condition for support but Labour didn’t. Purely as I feel a lot of SNP backing stems from their positioning as Tory opposition and Labour as Tory enablers. It could be a bit of a poison pill in that a chunk of that Yes vote would be switched off by it in light of that (just as large chunks of Labour voters shifted following them sharing a stage with the Tories). 
 

If Sturgeon is unable to get anything done in the next few years and moves on to a different role, I do wonder where that leaves the SNP. There’s no natural successor like there was when Salmond stood down and the party in my view appears to be in thrall to one couple. 
 

Curiously, I also feel a more Salmond-esque politician would probably have made better progress than Sturgeon on this. I’m no fan of the SNP, however I just found the version presented by Salmond to be a more optimistic party in general. It might just be bad recall on my part though. I just don’t remember the case for Indy being pushed so heavily on an anti-Tory negative platform as the past decade. 

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8 hours ago, jonesy said:

I appreciate @Imaman sharing the piece from The Times. Far from hopeless, IMO, whether you agree with it or not, surely?

Just another post with no thought of Scottish Sovereignty. What about that! We're being told that we can't have a referendum so to me our democratic right is being affected. The SNP should just call it on our behalf! 

 

I didn't vote for the UK Supreme Court to subvert our democracy. The UK legal and political systems really are backwards and not fit for purpose. We need out and it's quite obvious Westminster needs us more than we need it.

 

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