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The rise and fall of The SNP.


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4 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

Nippy hasn't thought things through by all accounts - pun intended

 

 

 

Interviewed by Andrew Marr last week, when asked how an independent Scotland would replace the funds for public spending currently guaranteed by the so-called Barnett Formula (under which Britons in Scotland receive £2,500 a year more than they pay in taxes, compared with just £91 for those in England), Sturgeon said that instead of 'a decade of Tory austerity completely against our will … we'll deal with a deficit in the same way almost every other country across the world that has a deficit deals with that — you manage your finances'.

Well, yes: but it will be the ECB and the European Commission which will tell Edinburgh how big (or rather, small) that deficit will be. Sturgeon needs only look at what happened to the Republic of Ireland in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis.

 

The Commission and the ECB demanded Dublin cut unemployment benefits and public sector pay, while increasing the age of eligibility for the state pension. As Paul Sweeney of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions wrote of their dealings with the ECB and the Commission: 'It was clear who was in control. It was not a dialogue.'

Good for the BBC's interviewers in London for challenging Sturgeon on these matters. Even if the line goes dead at awkward moments.

 

 

 

Does the Barnett formula take in to account the 106 billion projected spend on HS2? 2,500 seems like a lot. Does it include the tax take from people employed in Scotland / Scottish companies but live in England?

 

Genuinely asking as I don't remember much from the Barnett formula during the referendum (obviously remember it being an issue, but can't remember how it all works) 

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Maroon Sailor
1 minute ago, jambo89 said:

 

 

 

Does the Barnett formula take in to account the 106 billion projected spend on HS2? 2,500 seems like a lot. Does it include the tax take from people employed in Scotland / Scottish companies but live in England?

 

Genuinely asking as I don't remember much from the Barnett formula during the referendum (obviously remember it being an issue, but can't remember how it all works) 

 

She didn't mention any of that in her response only the usual defective tactic of blaming the Tories for all Scotland's ills.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

She didn't mention any of that in her response only the usual defective tactic of blaming the Tories for all Scotland's ills.

 

 

 

I don't know what you're talking about m8. Didn't see the interview and my question was about the Barnett formula. I assumed you knew about it as it was part of your post, will look in to it myself if it includes HS2 and other England only projects,  but thanks anyway. 

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Maroon Sailor
24 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

 

I don't know what you're talking about m8. Didn't see the interview and my question was about the Barnett formula. I assumed you knew about it as it was part of your post, will look in to it myself if it includes HS2 and other England only projects,  but thanks anyway. 

 

My post was from an interview she did with Andrew Marr

 

Suffice to say she is still a bit sketchy with the financial aspects of an Independent Scotland

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

My post was from an interview she did with Andrew Marr

 

Suffice to say she is still a bit sketchy with the financial aspects of an Independent Scotland

 

 

 

I know it was an interview, my post was a regarding what was contained in that interview (the Barnett formula). I assumed this was the bone of contention not the interview in and of itself

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Seymour M Hersh
25 minutes ago, Maroon Sailor said:

 

My post was from an interview she did with Andrew Marr

 

Suffice to say she is still a bit sketchy with the financial aspects of an Independent Scotland

 

 

 

Who said this?

 

 'Our balance sheet would be too big for an independent Scotland. And so we would move our registered headquarters to London.'

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JudyJudyJudy
4 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

You're right.  If the last few elections taught us anything it's that the silent majority are never represented in the polls. Remember at the last GE, right up to polling day, it was thought that the scruffy, Marxist dinosaur had a chance of getting the keys to No.10. In the end, it was a landslide for the Tories and that particular nightmare was averted.

 

2 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

The polls have been spectacularly wrong at the last few elections. Do you not remember the GE 2019?? The validity of polls was called into question. The SNP majority appears to be on a knife edge 

LOL @ the scruff marxist dinosaur...OI i liked Corbyn.. ! but that description made me laugh   .  Hopefully they lose their majority but will still have the insipid Greens to keep them in power. 

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jack D and coke
23 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Who said this?

 

 'Our balance sheet would be too big for an independent Scotland. And so we would move our registered headquarters to London.'

They’d have to move by law wouldn’t they? Why is that never really mentioned? They have business here and would have to keep a presence, pretty much the same presence they have atm to maintain the business they have here and to encourage more no? Or they’re just deciding nobody needs a loan here now so then that’s a space for someone else to move in? Unless people believe they’d just not care about selling mortgages, loans or financial services anymore because Scotland has changed its status. Don’t they try sell in foreign markets with different parts of the business or is absolutely everything they do run through Edinburgh and Scotland goes indy and they leave lock stock? Surely the people they have here who are good at their job would be kept?
I don’t think theyd just abandon all their buildings and staff and property such as at gogar and pass the burden on to the rUK taxpayer again would they with payoffs and a huge portfolio of property, loans and mortgages? That’s how the media make it sound to me anyway. We go Indy and they’re out of here🤷🏽‍♂️
I don’t know any of this for a fact obviously but a lot of it sounds like unfounded scare stories to me. There will be money to be made and I’m sure they’ll be around. 
 

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Seymour M Hersh
2 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

They’d have to move by law wouldn’t they? Why is that never really mentioned? They have business here and would have to keep a presence, pretty much the same presence they have atm to maintain the business they have here and to encourage more no? Or they’re just deciding nobody needs a loan here now so then that’s a space for someone else to move in? Unless people believe they’d just not care about selling mortgages, loans or financial services anymore because Scotland has changed its status. Don’t they try sell in foreign markets with different parts of the business or is absolutely everything they do run through Edinburgh and Scotland goes indy and they leave lock stock? Surely the people they have here who are good at their job would be kept?
I don’t think theyd just abandon all their buildings and staff and property such as at gogar and pass the burden on to the rUK taxpayer again would they with payoffs and a huge portfolio of property, loans and mortgages? That’s how the media make it sound to me anyway. We go Indy and they’re out of here🤷🏽‍♂️
I don’t know any of this for a fact obviously but a lot of it sounds like unfounded scare stories to me. There will be money to be made and I’m sure they’ll be around. 
 

 

That's already happening. As for it being unfounded it comes from Alison Rose the boss of NatWest  Holdings the parent company of RBS. 

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jack D and coke
3 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

That's already happening. As for it being unfounded it comes from Alison Rose the boss of NatWest  Holdings the parent company of RBS. 

So before there’s even another indyref they’re already doing it? All banks are closing down branches so looks like a bit of convenient excuse then no? 

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Seymour M Hersh
1 minute ago, jack D and coke said:

So before there’s even another indyref they’re already doing it? All banks are closing down branches so looks like a bit of convenient excuse then no? 

 

I wasn't talking about branches so much as big RBS offices in the last few years Fettes Row (Dundas St), The Younger building and Drummond House all now empty. 

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Of course one track liar Sturgeon knows more about RBS and its business than they do. She is an expert on everything except the truth. It won't just be major financial institutions that flea her iScotland wasteland, tens of thousands of professional people will depart and take their skills and tax contributions with them. Of course Nicoliar is quitting in 5 years time anyway to enjoy her Barnett funded pension, won't be her dealing with the hell she's created.

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jack D and coke
6 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I wasn't talking about branches so much as big RBS offices in the last few years Fettes Row (Dundas St), The Younger building and Drummond House all now empty. 

Well that’s nothing to do with the Indy question surely? It’s just them restructuring the business? 

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11 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

The SNP have become a hollowed out husk.

 

I don't quote polls, cos, they are so often wrong, I came to the conclusion only an idiot would actually quote a poll as part of their argument.

Will Thursday's poll be the end of the SNP ? 😏

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8 minutes ago, luckydug said:

Will Thursday's poll be the end of the SNP ? 😏

No but it could be the end of Z

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Des Lynam
59 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

That's already happening. As for it being unfounded it comes from Alison Rose the boss of NatWest  Holdings the parent company of RBS. 


Saying and doing are two completely different things. 

 

51 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I wasn't talking about branches so much as big RBS offices in the last few years Fettes Row (Dundas St), The Younger building and Drummond House all now empty. 


I think the reason they built the World headquarters at Gogar might have something to do with that. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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59 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

I don’t know where you get that ‘every time’ from. I don’t post that often.

My comments regarding word length, are more to do with the fact that posts rarely need to be hundreds of words long. Usually 600 words means an inefficently written 200 words etc.

 

You, and it isn’t just you that does this, equate the SNP block vote in Scottish elections after 2014 as a sign of a continuing success. I don’t.   

 

The SNP are dealing with the consequences of; sudden growth and their near monopoly of the votes of people who voted yes in 2014, increasing distrust and frustration from within and without the SNP, numerous occasions of misconduct, a growing number of policy failures and associated costs in millions of pounds, and an inability to present a cohesive and realistic, inclusive and uniting vision of an independent Scotland.

 

At some stage, after the years of this neverendum, the day job will have to be accounted for.

 

 

You post incessantly about the SNP and Scottish independence, and have started multiple threads on the subject.  You never shut up about the subjects, probably, as I've said already, because despite what you say you don't really believe that the SNP is in any form of decline.  You wish they were, and you wish Scottish Independence was, but you don't really believe that they are.

 

See this?

 

On 14/04/2021 at 01:31, Zlatanable said:

That was too many words. 

 

 

That was you, responding to a post I wrote with 192 words in it.  Efficiently written, and taking at most 75 seconds to read at normal pace.  But still too many words for you, right?  So spare me your bullshit about "hundreds of words long".

 

In a democracy, you are successful when people vote for you.  It is why Trump succeeded in 2016 and failed in 2020.  People vote for the SNP.  Compared to the votes of hundreds of thousands, the personal opinion of little individuals is hardly here or there - least of all those who find it a struggle to read 192 words and process a response.

 

You're just a bullshitter. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

And the Midnight Gobshite is on the ropes as Ulysses 'The Hair' McGill circles menacingly

 

:laugh:

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Mysterion
2 hours ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

 

Intersting comment in the article:

 

Quote

The study — commissioned by the pro-union think tank These Islands — are “truly disturbing”, according to its chairman Kevin Hague, because they suggest an “epidemic of economic fact denial” has swept through the electorate .

 

Which is what happened with many unionists during the Brexit debate. 

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jack D and coke
2 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

 

Intersting comment in the article:

 

 

Which is what happened with many unionists during the Brexit debate. 

Maybe for some but a lot of people just want away from the WM govt. I do read some nonsense though with people thinking we’re leaving with all the goodies and leaving the U.K. in ruins which is always the case with people who only exist in echo chambers. 
Brexit for me was almost certainly based on immigrants and reclaiming the country from foreigners and brown people. I’ll admit to getting sucked in in the beginning too with regards leaving the EU. I thought we were being invaded and the terror incidents were backing it up. 
There’s been a definite smell of fear though last week or two in particular as the nonsense discussions and posts I’m seeing on social media seems to be really ramping up. 
 

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Mysterion
24 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

There’s been a definite smell of fear though last week or two in particular as the nonsense discussions and posts I’m seeing on social media seems to be really ramping up. 

 

Just for clarity - On which side of the debate?

 

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jack D and coke
7 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

 

Just for clarity - On which side of the debate?

 

Fear from the unionist side imo. 

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Unknown user
2 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Fear from the unionist side imo. 

Undoubtedly, remember the swagger as the whole Salmond thing started, it's been replaced by barely disguised fear

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Unknown user
On 03/05/2021 at 11:24, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

That's already happening. As for it being unfounded it comes from Alison Rose the boss of NatWest  Holdings the parent company of RBS. 

So... absolutely **** all to do with independence then, thanks for clarifying.

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Mysterion
1 minute ago, jack D and coke said:

Fear from the unionist side imo. 

 

Cheers - didn't want to take it the wrong way.

 

Recent drops in Indie polling is a bit of a starting point and hyped up, borders and currency also setting the tone. The strategy seems to be "convince them that there's just no point and hope they don't want to have the hassle"

 

Also seeing elements of the "you have to be stupid to want this" routine too.

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JudyJudyJudy

Brilliant take down of the “ Hate crime” Bill also very worrying . Welcome to Sturgeons thought police 

 

 

 

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jack D and coke
2 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

 

Cheers - didn't want to take it the wrong way.

 

Recent drops in Indie polling is a bit of a starting point and hyped up, borders and currency also setting the tone. The strategy seems to be "convince them that there's just no point and hope they don't want to have the hassle"

 

Also seeing elements of the "you have to be stupid to want this" routine too.

No worries man I wouldn’t take offence anyway I appreciate this is an emotive subject for us all. 
Ive just seen lots of really nonsensical posts on social media and it’s not from a place of confidence. 

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Seymour M Hersh
8 minutes ago, Smithee said:

So... absolutely **** all to do with independence then, thanks for clarifying.

 

Nicely taken out of contest there. 

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jack D and coke
1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Brilliant take down of the “ Hate crime” Bill also very worrying . Welcome to Sturgeons thought police 

 

 

 

He’s an absolute knob cmon. File with Laurence Fox and bellends such as him. 
Is this stuff here and on numerous threads just all to wind up aussieh? 
 

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Mysterion
On 03/05/2021 at 10:31, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Who said this?

 

 'Our balance sheet would be too big for an independent Scotland. And so we would move our registered headquarters to London.'

 

As JD&C mentioned - they may have to move the HQ location by law so it's not an unexpected development. I think the talk was of around 150-300 jobs that would move South for regulatory roles. Reality is that some of those roles are already filled by Scottish people which see them bounce between Edinburgh and London offices midweek. That doesn't actually need to change post Indie.

 

For that reason moving jobs permanently South might not be the exodus made out.

 

The other aspects of RBS/Natwest to consider are:

1. The RBS name is almost over, the bank will err towards London over time for leadership roles.

 

2. Staffing costs are cheaper up here, to keep costs down it doesn't make sense to move hundreds of jobs so major tech and admin functions for Natwest/RBS will not disappear.

 

3. Edinburgh and Glasgow have large financial centres as well as technology hubs for finance companies. For example Barclays are building a massive technology campus on the Clyde and JP Morgan have a big software dev hub.

 

For the tech hubs if London was their best option they'd already be in London. JP Morgan aren't going to suddenly close their Glasgow office and move them to London.

 

Indie Scotland would present new financial opportunities too so for that reason the jobs impact on the finance industry is not what is suggested IMO.

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JudyJudyJudy
41 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

He’s an absolute knob cmon. File with Laurence Fox and bellends such as him. 
Is this stuff here and on numerous threads just all to wind up aussieh? 
 

I’ve never heard of him before I just thought it was interesting to see how’s his new law may progress in reality . That’s the concern . If it winds up people that’s their problem . Own it I say . 

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Governor Tarkin
1 hour ago, jack D and coke said:

He’s an absolute knob cmon. File with Laurence Fox and bellends such as him. 
Is this stuff here and on numerous threads just all to wind up aussieh? 
 

 

I thought it was quite funny. First I've heard of that guy. 

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jack D and coke
27 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

I’ve never heard of him before I just thought it was interesting to see how’s his new law may progress in reality . That’s the concern . If it winds up people that’s their problem . Own it I say . 

Haha guess so pal

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jack D and coke
12 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

I thought it was quite funny. First I've heard of that guy. 

Hmm it’s not the first video I’ve seen of him talking about how everybody hates the English if you vote Indy and how barry glasgow is. Rips my jimmys that nonsense. How everyone gets on in glasgow there’s no issues and all that pish. 
The amount of Glaswegians in jail due to drunken acts of bigotry is mental but they’re all just great pals according to that twat. 
Has any Edinburgh comedian ever kept going on about how barry we are through here? 🤔😂

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Governor Tarkin
1 minute ago, jack D and coke said:

Hmm it’s not the first video I’ve seen of him talking about how everybody hates the English if you vote Indy and how barry glasgow is. Rips my jimmys that nonsense. How everyone gets on in glasgow there’s no issues and all that pish. 
The amount of Glaswegians in jail due to drunken acts of bigotry is mental but they’re all just great pals according to that twat. 
Has any Edinburgh comedian ever kept going on about how barry we are through here? 🤔😂

 

Aye maybe he is a slavering fhannie, but maybe it's all part of his act. That's the first I've seen of him and that wee routine was amusing. I love a lazy stereotype and sweeping generalisation.

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Ron Burgundy
24 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

I thought it was quite funny. First I've heard of that guy. 

Same here. I'll be having a wee look for some of his other stuff.

 

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JudyJudyJudy
2 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Aye maybe he is a slavering fhannie, but maybe it's all part of his act. That's the first I've seen of him and that wee routine was amusing. I love a lazy stereotype and sweeping generalisation.

👍 one of my exes tried to be a stand to comedian . He had a spot one night at the “ Stand” in Edinburgh . I was in the audience and it was excruciating, as there was no laughter . He asked me how he thought he had done ? I said well “ there was no laughter “ ! 😂 I was blunt even back then . No use having people living in delusional land! 

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jack D and coke
16 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Aye maybe he is a slavering fhannie, but maybe it's all part of his act. That's the first I've seen of him and that wee routine was amusing. I love a lazy stereotype and sweeping generalisation.

First impressions I suppose. First time I seen him he was going on about Scots all hating the English if you wanted indy and it riled me up :lol: 

Dont like his patter now. 

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doctor jambo
15 minutes ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Same here. I'll be having a wee look for some of his other stuff.

 

Offence is taken, not given.

All comedy is ripping someone or something.

It’s little wonder people have no resilience.

 

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Seymour M Hersh
5 hours ago, Mysterion said:

 

As JD&C mentioned - they may have to move the HQ location by law so it's not an unexpected development. I think the talk was of around 150-300 jobs that would move South for regulatory roles. Reality is that some of those roles are already filled by Scottish people which see them bounce between Edinburgh and London offices midweek. That doesn't actually need to change post Indie.

 

For that reason moving jobs permanently South might not be the exodus made out.

 

The other aspects of RBS/Natwest to consider are:

1. The RBS name is almost over, the bank will err towards London over time for leadership roles.

 

2. Staffing costs are cheaper up here, to keep costs down it doesn't make sense to move hundreds of jobs so major tech and admin functions for Natwest/RBS will not disappear.

 

3. Edinburgh and Glasgow have large financial centres as well as technology hubs for finance companies. For example Barclays are building a massive technology campus on the Clyde and JP Morgan have a big software dev hub.

 

For the tech hubs if London was their best option they'd already be in London. JP Morgan aren't going to suddenly close their Glasgow office and move them to London.

 

Indie Scotland would present new financial opportunities too so for that reason the jobs impact on the finance industry is not what is suggested IMO.

 

Staffing costs in many areas of England, Wales and NI are likely to be even cheaper than Edinburgh I would have thought. Not going to happen in any case so I suppose it's all moot. 

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On 03/05/2021 at 09:24, Maroon Sailor said:

Interviewed by Andrew Marr last week, when asked how an independent Scotland would replace the funds for public spending currently guaranteed by the so-called Barnett Formula (under which Britons in Scotland receive £2,500 a year more than they pay in taxes, compared with just £91 for those in England), Sturgeon said that instead of 'a decade of Tory austerity completely against our will … we'll deal with a deficit in the same way almost every other country across the world that has a deficit deals with that — you manage your finances'.

Well, yes: but it will be the ECB and the European Commission which will tell Edinburgh how big (or rather, small) that deficit will be. Sturgeon needs only look at what happened to the Republic of Ireland in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis.

 

The Commission and the ECB demanded Dublin cut unemployment benefits and public sector pay, while increasing the age of eligibility for the state pension. As Paul Sweeney of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions wrote of their dealings with the ECB and the Commission: 'It was clear who was in control. It was not a dialogue.'

Good for the BBC's interviewers in London for challenging Sturgeon on these matters. Even if the line goes dead at awkward moments.

 

 

 

 

This is an interesting version of the truth.  Ireland cut public service pay in 2009 and 2010, before entering negotiations on a bailout with the ECB, the Commission and the IMF (the Troika).  The Troika did put pressure on Ireland to cut pay for one group of public servants who until then lived a charmed existence and avoided cuts - judges.  In 2013 there was a further pay cut for public servants earning more than the equivalent of £58,000 per annum, but this was not proposed by the Troika.  Ireland did cut unemployment benefits by about 5% at the Troika's insistence.  It was seen as an easy mark, because at the time we had negative inflation.  Ireland's rate of unemployment assistance was reduced to about £150 per week and has since gone up to around £175 (I don't know how that compares to Scotland).  Ireland's State pension age is 66, which AFAIK is lower than Scotland's.  There were plans to increase the age to 67 and then 68, but they were put on ice some time ago and it is not know if and when they'll be brought forward again.

 

Finally, the EU/ECB/IMF Troika did impose stringent conditions.  They were entitled to - they were making €68 billion of credit available to us at very cheap rates to give us a soft landing in extreme circumstances.  In 2010, because of commitments to prop up the ailing banks, Ireland ran the largest government deficit in the history of any developed nation during peacetime.  That's not exactly the same as playing around with Barnett.

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16 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Brilliant take down of the “ Hate crime” Bill also very worrying . Welcome to Sturgeons thought police 

 

 

 


Pretty basic patter.


Had to cringe a couple of points and made me think if he is a “comedian” then I could do that for a living no bother!

 

As Jack D mentioned, the guy is a candidate for the reclaim party, so hard to believe it’s all just an act, but each to their own!

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Latest opinion poll for that nationalist rag the Times has SNP at 52% constituency votes and Greens at 13% on the list. That fall's getting worse😊😊

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3 minutes ago, XB52 said:

Latest opinion poll for that nationalist rag the Times has SNP at 52% constituency votes and Greens at 13% on the list. That fall's getting worse.

 

You've obviously seen the front page then? Remind us where the poll has support for independence please?

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manaliveits105

Oh dear back to 2014 level with only 45% ayebaws -Agent  Nicoliar has played a blinder kicking Indy into the long grass

enjoy yer toytown Parliament battle victory tomorrow but the Indy war is lost (again)

:cornette_dog:

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3 hours ago, manaliveits105 said:

Oh dear back to 2014 level with only 45% ayebaws -Agent  Nicoliar has played a blinder kicking Indy into the long grass

enjoy yer toytown Parliament battle victory tomorrow but the Indy war is lost (again)

:cornette_dog:

 

That's after 7 years of their fiendish plan to replace 55k nawbags each year with their free laptop and tinternet school wains. SNP are like having Attila and Genghis at the city gates offering you a quick death. 

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Konrad von Carstein
3 hours ago, manaliveits105 said:

Oh dear back to 2014 level with only 45% ayebaws -Agent  Nicoliar has played a blinder kicking Indy into the long grass

enjoy yer toytown Parliament battle victory tomorrow but the Indy war is lost (again)

:cornette_dog:

 

5 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

That's after 7 years of their fiendish plan to replace 55k nawbags each year with their free laptop and tinternet school wains. SNP are like having Attila and Genghis at the city gates offering you a quick death. 

Ah well, that'll be that then, the brains trust has spoken... :lol: 

 

:cornette:

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2 minutes ago, Konrad von Carstein said:

 

Ah well, that'll be that then, the brains trust has spoken... :lol: 

 

:cornette:

 

 

IFS, GERS, LSE... Who's in your corner? The Tartan Army travel club?

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