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The rise and fall of The SNP.


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35 minutes ago, jambos are go! said:

I don't think the huge splits in the S NP can be explained by minor differences of opinion on timing.

 

Every party has differences. Look at the way the Tories have ripped themselves apart for years and are now in government, stronger than ever. SNP will continue that way, as there's no one strong or credible enough to replace them.

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jack D and coke
5 minutes ago, jambogaza said:

 

Every party has differences. Look at the way the Tories have ripped themselves apart for years and are now in government, stronger than ever. SNP will continue that way, as there's no one strong or credible enough to replace them.

You have to forgive them at times. They just move from one imaginary problem to the next such is their obsession and desperation to see them fall. 
 

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jambos are go!
12 minutes ago, jambogaza said:

 

Every party has differences. Look at the way the Tories have ripped themselves apart for years and are now in gused overnment, stronger than ever. SNP will continue that way, as there's no one strong or credible enough to replace them.

Scottish Labour used to say that!!

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1 hour ago, East Lothian Jambo said:

Might be a long wait on that front 

Could be but then like most folk who have little time for the British Empire....we can wait. We have waited this long. 

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East Lothian Jambo
14 minutes ago, Pans Jambo said:

Could be but then like most folk who have little time for the British Empire....we can wait. We have waited this long. 

I would imagine there will be many priorities ahead of Scottish independence when we emerge from the other side of this crisis 

 

How the rest of the world views and engages with China may well be very close to number 1 

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Lobey Dosser
2 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

I am doing what I can, to make the best outcome occur. (Obviously, that is in my opinion)

 

I would argue the SNP are increasingly becoming less popular. And the cause of Scottish Independence isn't as new, fresh, different or urgent, as it seemed pre-2014. And since then, other points of view have gained traction.  

 

All political parties go through the process of success and then failure. Since 2007, the SNP have achieved a lot, based on their votes. Much of it based on a singularity of inner purpose. 

 

What I am seeing now though, is a party that is struggling to maintain that singularity.

 

 

Thank you for replying in a decent way to me. 

What are you basing these arguments on? What evidence do you have that the SNP are becoming less popular? And what are the other points of view that are gaining traction? 

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Lobey Dosser
2 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

I will answer you, point by point, with factually based answers @Lobey Dosser

I already know you will reject what I say. 

 

1) What are you basing these arguments on?

I am basing my arguments on evidence. 

The evidence of elections in Scotland where the SNP have stood.

 

2) What evidence do you have that the SNP are becoming less popular?

Based on the evidence of how people in Scotland vote.

 

The Council elections in 2017,

not a single place in Scotland voted for an SNP majority council. In politics terms, that is something you ought to pay attention to. If the SNP were as universally popular as you seem to believe, why couldn't it win a single majority?

 

The General elections in 2015/2017/2019

In 2015, the SNP had 56 of 59 MPs.

In 2017, the SNP had 34 of 59 MPs.

In 2019, the SNP have 48 of 59 MPs. 

 

Why has the SNP not been able to reach 56 seats again?

 

3) And what are the other points of view that are gaining traction? 

The Conservative Party

 

Conservative MP's

2005 - 1

2010 - 1

2015 - 1

2017 - 13

2019 - 6

 

Conservatives MSP's

2003 - 18

2007 - 17

2011 - 15

2016 - 31

 

 

I don't expect you to hear this, pay due attention to it, or anything. 

But, for the record, I said it. 

You're being both presumptuous and pretty patronising. Why on earth would you expect me not to pay due attention, or hear what you say? What reason have I given you to be so hostile? 

 

I've been nothing but courteous to you, both here and by PM, and I thought it might be worth a conversation. No more, no less. 

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Lobey Dosser
13 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

I will answer you, point by point, with factually based answers @Lobey Dosser

I already know you will reject what I say. 

 

1) What are you basing these arguments on?

I am basing my arguments on evidence. 

The evidence of elections in Scotland where the SNP have stood.

 

2) What evidence do you have that the SNP are becoming less popular?

Based on the evidence of how people in Scotland vote.

 

The Council elections in 2017,

not a single place in Scotland voted for an SNP majority council. In politics terms, that is something you ought to pay attention to. If the SNP were as universally popular as you seem to believe, why couldn't it win a single majority?

 

The General elections in 2015/2017/2019

In 2015, the SNP had 56 of 59 MPs.

In 2017, the SNP had 34 of 59 MPs.

In 2019, the SNP have 48 of 59 MPs. 

 

Why has the SNP not been able to reach 56 seats again?

 

3) And what are the other points of view that are gaining traction? 

The Conservative Party

 

Conservative MP's

2005 - 1

2010 - 1

2015 - 1

2017 - 13

2019 - 6

 

Conservatives MSP's

2003 - 18

2007 - 17

2011 - 15

2016 - 31

 

 

I don't expect you to hear this, pay due attention to it, or anything. 

But, for the record, I said it. 

And by your own evidence here, the SNP have become more popular. They won more seats in 2019 than 2017. That's why I was questioning your reasoning. I very much doubt anyone will ever win the amount of seats they did in 2015. 

 

And for the record, I dont believe the SNP are universally popular. You are completely wrong about that. I'm neither a nationalist nor a unionist. So your presumptions, and your patronising reply was completely uncalled for. 

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Lobey Dosser
2 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

Oh yeah, its you

I knew I recognised your name. 

Its been a long monthweekday.

 

I'm sorry if it comes across as me being patronising and presumptuous, but, and I have to ask this - do you reject everything I said, and reject the evidence? 

 

Also, I'm sorry for causing you turbulence. 

 

It didn't come across as being patronising and presumptuous. You were deliberately and pointedly patronising and presumptious. 

 

I don't reject everything you said. I dont accept your evidence backs up what you say, but I am able to accept that other people have other points of view and sometimes I even engage with those people. 

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Lobey Dosser
1 minute ago, Zlatanable said:

What did you agree with, if you are able to continue this conversation.

 

I'll pass. Take your attitude somewhere else. 

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Lobey Dosser
6 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

In essence, you have rejected what I said. 

Which is what I predicted.

Nope. Wrong again. I accept the Tories are gaining seats. I accept (up to a point) your point re the council elections.

 

Again, presumptuous and patronising. That's all from me. 

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Unknown user
4 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

In essence, you have rejected what I said. 

Which is what I predicted.

That's pretty deceptive, it's obvious he rejected your conclusion not your figures.

 

A party that returned 40% more mps than the last election is falling? Bollocks!

 

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1 hour ago, Zlatanable said:

Thanks for the chat.

I did not think I was being inconsiderate or horrible to you. 

I'm sorry we fell out here.

 

Take care of yourself. 

 

You were.

 

Maybe you should both take note of that, and a long look at yourself and why your confirmation bias overrides your ability to think clearly so often.

 

Edited by Justin Z
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4 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

I will answer you, point by point, with factually based answers @Lobey Dosser

I already know you will reject what I say. 

 

1) What are you basing these arguments on?

I am basing my arguments on evidence. 

The evidence of elections in Scotland where the SNP have stood.

 

2) What evidence do you have that the SNP are becoming less popular?

Based on the evidence of how people in Scotland vote.

 

The Council elections in 2017,

not a single place in Scotland voted for an SNP majority council. In politics terms, that is something you ought to pay attention to. If the SNP were as universally popular as you seem to believe, why couldn't it win a single majority?

 

The General elections in 2015/2017/2019

In 2015, the SNP had 56 of 59 MPs.

In 2017, the SNP had 34 of 59 MPs.

In 2019, the SNP have 48 of 59 MPs. 

 

Why has the SNP not been able to reach 56 seats again?

 

3) And what are the other points of view that are gaining traction? 

The Conservative Party

 

Conservative MP's

2005 - 1

2010 - 1

2015 - 1

2017 - 13

2019 - 6

 

Conservatives MSP's

2003 - 18

2007 - 17

2011 - 15

2016 - 31

 

 

I don't expect you to hear this, pay due attention to it, or anything. 

But, for the record, I said it. 

The SNP had the largest second vote at Holyrood yet didn't get the same amount of seats as the Tories or labour. That's because they wiped the floor with the first vote. Hopefully there's another Independence party to cast my vote for next time. No not the greens.

 

 

What was the number of fptp seats at Holyrood? Party by Party.

 

Oh and the Scottish Unionists lost 7 seats at wm, so oh dear, they seem to have lost their popularity.

 

 

Oh and :jambobanana:

 

Tick Tock!!!

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

The SNP had the largest second vote at Holyrood yet didn't get the same amount of seats as the Tories or labour. That's because they wiped the floor with the first vote. Hopefully there's another Independence party to cast my vote for next time. No not the greens.

 

 

What was the number of fptp seats at Holyrood? Party by Party.

 

Oh and the Scottish Unionists lost 7 seats at wm, so oh dear, they seem to have lost their popularity.

 

 

Oh and :jambobanana:

 

Tick Tock!!!

 

 

 

 

They want to make it look 'inevitable' when it is anything but. There is evidence of difficult days ahead for the SNP but no evidence of electoral decline.

Edited by jambogaza
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3 minutes ago, jambogaza said:

 

They want to make it look 'inevitable' when it is anything but. There is evidence of difficult days ahead for the SNP but no evidence of electoral decline.

👍 Zlat needs new knees and a new carpet.

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8 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

I will answer you, point by point, with factually based answers @Lobey Dosser

I already know you will reject what I say. 

 

1) What are you basing these arguments on?

I am basing my arguments on evidence. 

The evidence of elections in Scotland where the SNP have stood.

 

2) What evidence do you have that the SNP are becoming less popular?

Based on the evidence of how people in Scotland vote.

 

The Council elections in 2017,

not a single place in Scotland voted for an SNP majority council. In politics terms, that is something you ought to pay attention to. If the SNP were as universally popular as you seem to believe, why couldn't it win a single majority?

 

The General elections in 2015/2017/2019

In 2015, the SNP had 56 of 59 MPs.

In 2017, the SNP had 34 of 59 MPs.

In 2019, the SNP have 48 of 59 MPs. 

 

Why has the SNP not been able to reach 56 seats again?

 

3) And what are the other points of view that are gaining traction? 

The Conservative Party

 

Conservative MP's

2005 - 1

2010 - 1

2015 - 1

2017 - 13

2019 - 6

 

Conservatives MSP's

2003 - 18

2007 - 17

2011 - 15

2016 - 31

 

 

I don't expect you to hear this, pay due attention to it, or anything. 

But, for the record, I said it. 

 

I think you need to look at the "traction" of the Tories in relation to the decline in the number of seats the Labour party had/have.

 

In other words, the Tories aren't gaining much from the SNP, but gaining some support from former Labour voters as some sort of unionist coalescing of vote.

 

In other words, both the SNP and the Tories benefit from the single issue of independence, however the SNP also benefit from the "never vote Tory" brigade.

 

You are also conflating how people would vote in an indy ref with how they vote at parliamentary elections.  It would seem apparent that the electorate in Scotland have no desire for any form of Tory administration either at Holyrood or Westminster.  Whether they desire independence is a different question and matter altogether.  IMO.

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manaliveits105

 

Alex Salmond in plot to oust Nicola Sturgeon: Former first minister's 'bid to lead fresh drive for Scots independence' as he is cleared of sex assaults 

 

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51 minutes ago, manaliveits105 said:

 

Alex Salmond in plot to oust Nicola Sturgeon: Former first minister's 'bid to lead fresh drive for Scots independence' as he is cleared of sex assaults 

 

😄

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Space Mackerel
11 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

I will answer you, point by point, with factually based answers @Lobey Dosser

I already know you will reject what I say. 

 

1) What are you basing these arguments on?

I am basing my arguments on evidence. 

The evidence of elections in Scotland where the SNP have stood.

 

2) What evidence do you have that the SNP are becoming less popular?

Based on the evidence of how people in Scotland vote.

 

The Council elections in 2017,

not a single place in Scotland voted for an SNP majority council. In politics terms, that is something you ought to pay attention to. If the SNP were as universally popular as you seem to believe, why couldn't it win a single majority?

 

The General elections in 2015/2017/2019

In 2015, the SNP had 56 of 59 MPs.

In 2017, the SNP had 34 of 59 MPs.

In 2019, the SNP have 48 of 59 MPs. 

 

Why has the SNP not been able to reach 56 seats again?

 

3) And what are the other points of view that are gaining traction? 

The Conservative Party

 

Conservative MP's

2005 - 1

2010 - 1

2015 - 1

2017 - 13

2019 - 6

 

Conservatives MSP's

2003 - 18

2007 - 17

2011 - 15

2016 - 31

 

 

I don't expect you to hear this, pay due attention to it, or anything. 

But, for the record, I said it. 

 

Lets be honest, you weren't exactly "spot on," along with many others about Alex Slamonds' outcome.

In fact, you were completely and utterly wrong.

 

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49 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

The overall point I am attempting to make, is that the SNP are facing an increasing set of problematic events. 

Like has been said before on this thread, some people in Scotland will always vote for the SNP. 

So, the SNP haven't really suffered from these problematic events. But, imo, that is a double edged-sword, and similar to what happened to Scottish Labour, having the block-vote causes complacency. 

 

I think that is what I am seeing. 

 

I don't disagree that the SNP are indeed facing "interesting times", but I don't think all of a sudden folk are going to turn volte face and vote Tory.  the evidence doesn't suggest this.

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29 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

I don't disagree that the SNP are indeed facing "interesting times", but I don't think all of a sudden folk are going to turn volte face and vote Tory.  the evidence doesn't suggest this.

 

They might win some votes from people who perceive themselves to have benefitted or been supported by the measures they have recently put in place due to the pandemic. People will also see Sturgeon as part of that, though.

 

So the SNP and Tories will continue to be the two front runners, particularly when you factor in the constitutional issue (which isn't going away despite people trying to wish it away).

 

But the SNP are still way out in front of the Tories and every other party in Scotland. And there is absolutely no evidence that is about to change, other than people sharing their instinct view based on circumstances.

Edited by jambogaza
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Space Mackerel
29 minutes ago, jambogaza said:

 

They might win some votes from people who perceive themselves to have benefitted or been supported by the measures they have recently put in place due to the pandemic. People will also see Sturgeon as part of that, though.

 

So the SNP and Tories will continue to be the two front runners, particularly when you factor in the constitutional issue (which isn't going away despite people trying to wish it away).

 

But the SNP are still way out in front of the Tories and every other party in Scotland. And there is absolutely no evidence that is about to change, other than people sharing their instinct view based on circumstances.

 

Or people who read The Daily Mail, Effie Deans and that mad auld Historywoman.

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Unknown user
4 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

The overall point I am attempting to make, is that the SNP are facing an increasing set of problematic events. 

Like has been said before on this thread, some people in Scotland will always vote for the SNP. 

So, the SNP haven't really suffered from these problematic events. But, imo, that is a double edged-sword, and similar to what happened to Scottish Labour, having the block-vote causes complacency. 

 

I think that is what I am seeing. 

The SNP haven't really suffered now? You were trying to show evidence of them falling before, now it's something that may happen in the future. 

Pick a lane.

Edited by Smithee
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Roxy Hearts

I take the unionists thinking. I will always vote SNP no matter what they do. Look what some Unionist politicians have done and people still vote for them. SNP until independence. Best party in Scotland without a doubt. 

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jambos are go!
1 hour ago, Roxy Hearts said:

I take the unionists thinking. I will always vote SNP no matter what they do. Look what some Unionist politicians have done and people still vote for them. SNP until independence. Best party in Scotland without a doubt. 

Unionist politicians have provided Scotland with over 30 billion pounds plus the Barnett bonus to tackle the Virus!!

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Roxy Hearts
48 minutes ago, jambos are go! said:

Unionist politicians have provided Scotland with over 30 billion pounds plus the Barnett bonus to tackle the Virus!!

Barnett is our own money!

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jambos are go!
7 minutes ago, Hunky Dory said:

 

Wrong. Try again.

Enlighten me!

 

5 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Barnett is our own money!

Enlighten me!

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Roxy Hearts
22 minutes ago, jambos are go! said:

Enlighten me!

 

Enlighten me!

Our taxes! We provide WM with billions and billions and get a little back. You know that though or you're a unionist. 

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jambos are go!
14 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Our taxes! We provide WM with billions and billions and get a little back. You know that though or you're a unionist. 

Evidence please. 

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Roxy Hearts
56 minutes ago, jambos are go! said:

Evidence please. 

Alright, we don't, if that suits your narrative. Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid. Can we have Scotland's full tax returns and what it sends to London. I heard it's quoted at approx 200 billion. 

 

Edited by Roxy Hearts
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17 minutes ago, Roxy Hearts said:

Alright, we don't, if that suits your narrative. Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid. Can we have Scotland's full tax returns and what it sends to London. I heard it's quoted at approx 200 billion. 

 

 

Scotland's full tax returns will never see the light of day.

 

They know.

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Roxy Hearts
20 minutes ago, jambogaza said:

 

Scotland's full tax returns will never see the light of day.

 

They know.

It's painful reading that some Scots have no confidence in themselves or their country. Other countries manage quite well with a fraction of our resources. 

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20 hours ago, Zlatanable said:

Thanks for the chat.

I did not think I was being inconsiderate or horrible to you. 

I'm sorry we fell out here.

 

Take care of yourself. 

Oh my.

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Roxy Hearts
1 hour ago, Roxy Hearts said:

It's painful reading that some Scots have no confidence in themselves or their country. Other countries manage quite well with a fraction of our resources. 

I did say some. 

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1 hour ago, weehammy said:

It’s entirely possible to be against independence while simultaneously being confident in oneself and one’s country.


:lol:

 

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1 hour ago, Morgan said:

:cornette:

 

Careful Morgan, you might be on the "get called an anti-semite" list now; I'd hate for that to happen to you

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Space Mackerel
2 hours ago, weehammy said:

It’s entirely possible to be against independence while simultaneously being confident in oneself and one’s country.


Have you booked in with your Therapist yet? 😃

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Unknown user
1 hour ago, Space Mackerel said:


Have you booked in with your Therapist yet? 😃

I hear there's a new guy in town, he's mixed analysis with therapy

 

th?id=OIP.JwAh5LXL-FokicgY0ySpUwHaEL%26p

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10 hours ago, Smithee said:

I hear there's a new guy in town, he's mixed analysis with therapy

 

th?id=OIP.JwAh5LXL-FokicgY0ySpUwHaEL%26p

Oddly enough, there was a poster on here about 14 years ago who had that as his username.

 

:wtf: 

 

 

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Unknown user
4 hours ago, Morgan said:

Oddly enough, there was a poster on here about 14 years ago who had that as his username.

 

:wtf: 

 

 

It's from Arrested Development ;)

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jack D and coke
16 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

So much for Humans being the top dog of the world. Little germs can take us oot at anytime.

Civilisation is just a clearing in the forest.The forest can take it back anytime it likes. 

This has been a real eye opener. Our economies etc mean jack shit and look how quickly its imploding too. 
 

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