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AlphonseCapone
10 minutes ago, 1971fozzy said:


would that be England ?

 

10 minutes ago, FWJ said:

That’s what I was wondering.

 

It would. It's up to SG for what happens here with lockdowns. 

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20 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

They are trying to bully the Tories into a full lockdown.

 

Won't happen :verysmug:

 

31 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Screenshot_20201030-222854_Twitter.jpg

We'll find out Monday.

 

Of course, lets hope not.

 

 

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N Lincs Jambo
3 hours ago, Bongo 1874 said:

 


Just watched that Bongo. I initially thought I was going to hate it due to the banner in the background but that was excellent. I had heard about zinc being used as a treatment in conjunction with hydroxychloroquine and Vit D but up till I watched this had not seen any research about the correlation between extremely low blood levels of zinc and subsequent deaths. Really informative and thanks for sharing.

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frankblack
57 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

 

It would. It's up to SG for what happens here with lockdowns. 

 

Nicola won't be happy if England goes for a harder lockdown.   Expect Edinburgh to go into full lockdown until the new year.

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Tommy Brown

We are going round in bloody circles.

Lockdown for a month, then ease restrictions, oh the R rate is going back up, lock down again.

This will be forever until a vaccine exists.

At the start, protect the NHS.

Speaking as someone who has underlying problems and would end up in hospital if I catch it.

My group must take extra care and do as much shielding as possible, but let everyone else get on with their lives. The current will just never work.

 

Edit addition:

Everyone must also accept the new normal though for their own health.

Social distancing, hygiene, facemasks.

 

 

Edited by Tommy Brown
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Brighton Jambo

What I don’t understand is this:

 

Patrick Vallance went on TV and said if we did nothing cases would be at 50,000 a day by mid October.  Action was taken and now as we enter November daily cases are less than half that. 

So, based on the above, how can suddenly the projections be that this is out of control and numbers are worse than the worst case scenario.  It just doesn’t make sense.  

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Victorian

It's the matter of scale I have been talking about.  It didn't take any special insight of course as it was bleedin' obvious.  The people blundering around with cotton wool in their ears wouldn't face it.  

 

The scale of this will hopelessly swamp our resources and now the governments are having to do something about it.  The usual suspects will no doubt find ways to deny it.

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Brian Dundas
12 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

What I don’t understand is this:

 

Patrick Vallance went on TV and said if we did nothing cases would be at 50,000 a day by mid October.  Action was taken and now as we enter November daily cases are less than half that. 

So, based on the above, how can suddenly the projections be that this is out of control and numbers are worse than the worst case scenario.  It just doesn’t make sense.  

I think the modelling they are looking at now is suggesting that hospitalisations and deaths are climbing too high, both are climbing while +ve test numbers are slowing.

 

Given that they will need to introduce new economic measures with the lockdown I'm pretty certain they are trying very hard to avoid it, but it looks very like the usual pattern of leak to press, gauge reaction over the weekend and announce the next week.

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frankblack

Unless the governments wake up and take unpopular enforcement actions we will be going round in a loop of lockdown, open up, numbers growing again, and repeat.

 

Stop people travelling on public transport without face masks, and make major stores and venues refuse entry.  Small things but effective.

 

I do also think we need to secure our ports like New Zealand.

Edited by frankblack
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The Real Maroonblood
7 minutes ago, frankblack said:

Unless the governments wake up and take unpopular enforcement actions we will be going round in a loop of lockdown, open up, numbers growing again, and repeat.

 

Stop people travelling without face masks, and make major stores and venues refuse entry.  Small things but effective.

Fair comment.

Some shops have signs “No mask no entry.” That seems to be the smaller shops from my experience.

It’s laughable that the strictest places have been pubs and they’re shut.

Edited by The Real Maroonblood
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Lockdown for a month to save Xmas the headlines are saying 

 

Who really gives a toss about Xmas as it’s one day then a few more drinks and more food on Boxing Day. 
 

If the lockdown again do they think everyone will be feeling great come Xmas and ready to celebrate? 
 

Economy ruined, jobs lost, mental health screwed again to save Xmas 🙄 

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49 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

What I don’t understand is this:

 

Patrick Vallance went on TV and said if we did nothing cases would be at 50,000 a day by mid October.  Action was taken and now as we enter November daily cases are less than half that. 

So, based on the above, how can suddenly the projections be that this is out of control and numbers are worse than the worst case scenario.  It just doesn’t make sense.  

Not very accurate, this modelling lark, izzit? :confused:

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Victorian said:

The people blundering around with cotton wool in their ears wouldn't face it. 

 

We have to cover our ears now, anaw? Shite.

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Governor Tarkin

Looking forward to the slew of 'told you so' type posts from the perrenial doom mongers. 

 

:muggy:

 

On the plus side, it's a full moon for halloween this year, so we can dust down the hockey masks and make sure we've plenty of petrol for the chainsaw. Covid aint the only slayer in town tonight.

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The Real Maroonblood
12 minutes ago, theshed said:

Lockdown for a month to save Xmas the headlines are saying 

 

Who really gives a toss about Xmas as it’s one day then a few more drinks and more food on Boxing Day. 
 

If the lockdown again do they think everyone will be feeling great come Xmas and ready to celebrate? 
 

Economy ruined, jobs lost, mental health screwed again to save Xmas 🙄 

:spoton:

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Mauricio Pinilla
43 minutes ago, frankblack said:

Unless the governments wake up and take unpopular enforcement actions we will be going round in a loop of lockdown, open up, numbers growing again, and repeat.

 

Stop people travelling on public transport without face masks, and make major stores and venues refuse entry.  Small things but effective.

 

I do also think we need to secure our ports like New Zealand.

 

Shh don't mention new zealand. We're only allowed to do what Sweden did, no other country is relevant. 

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Mauricio Pinilla

Why is everything leaked to the press before the government make decisions ffs :lol: I hate these ***** so much. 

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jack D and coke
12 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

Shh don't mention new zealand. We're only allowed to do what Sweden did, no other country is relevant. 

New Zealand are staring at isolation theirs isn’t really a path worth following either. I suppose they’re in the middle of nowhere and isolation is normal for them. And I’d have loved to see the reaction here had NS acted like Jacinda. NZ was a police state. Police outside your house if you’d tested positive and were to isolate. Na yir alright. 

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Seymour M Hersh
1 hour ago, Brian Dundas said:

I think the modelling they are looking at now is suggesting that hospitalisations and deaths are climbing too high, both are climbing while +ve test numbers are slowing.

 

Given that they will need to introduce new economic measures with the lockdown I'm pretty certain they are trying very hard to avoid it, but it looks very like the usual pattern of leak to press, gauge reaction over the weekend and announce the next week.

 

That for me is the problem. SAGE don't appear to be looking at the evidenced based science but just the mathematical algorithms. Who knows what data they are putting in. All their predictions (and those of ICL) have been wrong. 

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26 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Not very accurate, this modelling lark, izzit? :confused:

 

 

Rule 1 of modelling; all models are wrong!

 

it’s all about the quality of data going in and for this pandemic the data is at best unreliable.

 

Weather forecasting is a good example of modelling complex systems where we have decades worth of reliable data and medium to long term forecasting is still unreliable. 
 

The paper which has led to the headlines this morning is over 2 weeks old. It states all the models used for their predictions significantly diverge after two weeks. I.e. are unreliable.

 

having said that, that doesn’t mean we should do nothing. The paper also strongly recommends widespread testing, improved track and trace, better investigation of transmission routes, better communication of strategy etc etc

 

The way out of this will involve us making behavioural changes but the governments monomaniacal approach to satisfy the 24 hr sensationalist media will not see us out of this. There is not a lockdown and done answer to this. 

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2 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

New Zealand are staring at isolation theirs isn’t really a path worth following either. I suppose they’re in the middle of nowhere and isolation is normal for them. And I’d have loved to see the reaction here had NS acted like Jacinda. NZ was a police state. Police outside your house if you’d tested positive and were to isolate. Na yir alright. 

 

At the same time they're now living normal lives whereas we are going backwards

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The Real Maroonblood
1 minute ago, Gone said:

 

At the same time they're now living normal lives whereas we are going backwards

This country going backwards. Never.

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Governor Tarkin
6 minutes ago, flogel41 said:

Rule 1 of modelling; all models are wrong!

 

it’s all about the quality of data going in and for this pandemic the data is at best unreliable.

 

Weather forecasting is a good example of modelling complex systems where we have decades worth of reliable data and medium to long term forecasting is still unreliable. 
 

The paper which has led to the headlines this morning is over 2 weeks old. It states all the models used for their predictions significantly diverge after two weeks. I.e. are unreliable.

 

having said that, that doesn’t mean we should do nothing. The paper also strongly recommends widespread testing, improved track and trace, better investigation of transmission routes, better communication of strategy etc etc

 

The way out of this will involve us making behavioural changes but the governments monomaniacal approach to satisfy the 24 hr sensationalist media will not see us out of this. There is not a lockdown and done answer to this. 

 

Good post.

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Pubs, restaurants and Universities are the problem. Keep them shut with full funding til this is over. 

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Mauricio Pinilla
10 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

New Zealand are staring at isolation theirs isn’t really a path worth following either. I suppose they’re in the middle of nowhere and isolation is normal for them. And I’d have loved to see the reaction here had NS acted like Jacinda. NZ was a police state. Police outside your house if you’d tested positive and were to isolate. Na yir alright. 

 

They had a plan and stuck to it, are now pretty much back to normal. I don't care what the reaction from mentalists would've been. They'd have shut up when they were allowed back to the football in full crowds. 

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Tambo_The_Jambo

This is an absolute joke, I’m months behind on building projects, we all social distance and sanitise and now it looks like the wee guys like me are going to take the lockdown Bobby again. This is so stressful ....clients are going to go bonkers😭

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The Real Maroonblood
10 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Pubs, restaurants and Universities are the problem. Keep them shut with full funding til this is over. 

:rofl:

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2 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

They had a plan and stuck to it, are now pretty much back to normal. I don't care what the reaction from mentalists would've been. They'd have shut up when they were allowed back to the football in full crowds. 

 

I didn't like lockdown and felt it was overkill. Still do, but if once we decided to trash people's lives and the economy anyway we should have done it properly like New Zealand. All the incompetents in leadership in the UK and much of Europe have achieved is lots of self inflicted destruction with minimal removal of the virus at the same time. It's been a total car crash of strategy. They've failed, massively. 

 

Strong policies are only palatable if there's a plan, an exit plan and evidence that it works, we've been shown none of that. Their plans change every two minutes, the exit plan is pray for a vaccine we've never developed for the cold to achieve herd immunity were told won't work, and we'll, it's quite obvious it doesn't work.

 

I've lost faith in every single one of them and will treat anything they come out with from now on with the utter contempt it deserves. None of the current leaders will receive a vote from me again.

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Victorian

When the 50,000 cases per day prediction was made it was dismissed by saying it's just modelling and that modelling is wrong.  The current state of affairs is worse than the 50,000 per day status.  A lot of scientists are on the tv programmes this morning and they're clearly worried with what they see.  They aren't all hunched over a set of modelling scenarios.  They're looking at real information about the epidemic and the NHS.  

 

Professor Semple of Liverpool University rightly pointed out that more people are being successfully treated but that the average duration of stay in hospital is longer.  He was rightly alluding to what will happen when the volume of hospital patients becomes such that people will no longer get access to the treatment being given to today's patients.  That's not an observation from a model.  It's a sober realisation that next month's patients wont get that longer stay in hospital to be treated,  because they'll be lucky to see the inside of a hospital.  

 

 

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jack D and coke
2 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

They had a plan and stuck to it, are now pretty much back to normal. I don't care what the reaction from mentalists would've been. They'd have shut up when they were allowed back to the football in full crowds. 

Yes they did but they’re also in the arsehole end of nowhere. The UK is bang in the middle of Europe and a hub to the world it’s not the same ballpark. And look at this thread, or quite literally any thread on here it’s littered with people who are using other agendas to try discredit the SG it’s absolutely ripping out their every pore. Some people will use the opposite to dig out the UK government it’s absolutely ****ing tragic man. 
I see it on FB and Twitter and everywhere people playing the man not the ball. “Boris is the Pm am no listening tae nippy” etc and people wonder why we can’t get our shit together. She’s annoyed the life out of me too btw but at the end of the day I’m not for blaming anyone for this I just think we’ve made bad decision after bad decision after bad decision. We’re now backed into a corner and we have no idea how to get out of it. 
Fwiw I wouldn’t like the police getting anymore authority to intervene. That’s a dangerous place to go. 

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Mauricio Pinilla
Just now, Taffin said:

 

I didn't like lockdown and felt it was overkill. Still do, but if once we decided to trash people's lives and the economy anyway we should have done it properly like New Zealand. All the incompetents in leadership in the UK and much of Europe have achieved is lots of self inflicted destruction with minimal removal of the virus at the same time. It's been a total car crash of strategy. They've failed, massively. 

 

Strong policies are only palatable if there's a plan, an exit plan and evidence that it works, we've been shown none of that. Their plans change every two minutes, the exit plan is pray for a vaccine we've never developed for the cold to achieve herd immunity were told won't work, and we'll, it's quite obvious it doesn't work.

 

I've lost faith in every single one of them and will treat anything they come out with from now on with the utter contempt it deserves. None of the current leaders will receive a vote from me again.

 

:spoton:

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9 hours ago, frankblack said:

 

Nicola won't be happy if England goes for a harder lockdown.   Expect Edinburgh to go into full lockdown until the new year.

What do stupid comments like this add to the discussion ? 

This is an emergency people need to be pulling together and adhering to restrictions. 

Not making smart arse divisive comments like that. 

Get a ****ing grip. 

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2 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

:rofl:

Laugh all you want, but it's the mass spreader of covid. But hey, the mentally ill need a pint and a big hug fae their mates, they only talk to in the pub. 

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Governor Tarkin
3 minutes ago, Tambo_The_Jambo said:

This is an absolute joke, I’m months behind on building projects, we all social distance and sanitise and now it looks like the wee guys like me are going to take the lockdown Bobby again. This is so stressful ....clients are going to go bonkers😭

 

There's loads of us taking the boaby, bud. I've taken an absolute financial hammering since April too.

 

Lets just see whether the SG are willing to give their tier system a chance to work before pulling the rug from under us. It's far stricter than the English version as it stands so probably has a better chance. 

 

I's still advocate batton-charging house parties though. 

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1 hour ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Fair comment.

Some shops have signs “No mask no entry.” That seems to be the smaller shops from my experience.

It’s laughable that the *strictest places have been pubs and they’re shut.

:rofl:

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The Real Maroonblood
1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

Laugh all you want, but it's the mass spreader of covid. But hey, the mentally ill need a pint and a big hug fae their mates, they only talk to in the pub. 

I’m not mentally ill and I don’t need a hug from my mates.🍺

My local is probably one of the safest places to go.

Lets punish the majority.

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Victorian
1 minute ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

There's loads of us taking the boaby, bud. I've taken an absolute financial hammering since April too.

 

Lets just see whether the SG are willing to give their tier system a chance to work before pulling the rug from under us. It's far stricter than the English version as it stands so probably has a better chance. 

 

I's still advocate batton-charging house parties though. 

 

I think the Scottish tier system has a glimmer of a chance and it will be given a chance.  Not that it will be any less severe.  Broadly speaking we'll all be under very similar measures.

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Shooter McGavin
1 hour ago, theshed said:

Lockdown for a month to save Xmas the headlines are saying 

 

Who really gives a toss about Xmas as it’s one day then a few more drinks and more food on Boxing Day. 
 

If the lockdown again do they think everyone will be feeling great come Xmas and ready to celebrate? 
 

Economy ruined, jobs lost, mental health screwed again to save Xmas 🙄 

This.

 

Although it seems to be just the newspapers peddling that line at the moment. If a politician tries to justify another lockdown by claiming it’ll “save christmas”, I think my head will explode.

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Governor Tarkin
4 minutes ago, luckydug said:

What do stupid comments like this add to the discussion ? 

This is an emergency people need to be pulling together and adhering to restrictions. 

Not making smart arse divisive comments like that. 

Get a ****ing grip. 

 

Oh cheer up you miserable git.

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2 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

There's loads of us taking the boaby, bud. I've taken an absolute financial hammering since April too.

 

Lets just see whether the SG are willing to give their tier system a chance to work before pulling the rug from under us. It's far stricter than the English version as it stands so probably has a better chance. 

 

I's still advocate batton-charging house parties though. 

Don't think England can go it alone. Nucky's mirror image will just come here. Total lockdown, not half arsed version. 

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Ron Burgundy
12 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Unsure who he is but may be the guy who was always there ? Did the quiz night late 50s , that’s awful news 

Wee guy, black hair, I always thought he looked Italianesque. Incredibly loud.

But an absolute gentleman and him and Ben know exactly how to run a pub.

Top man and top Hearts fans. He was a star and will be greatly missed.

Loved the wee guy :sad: 

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Shooter McGavin

If England goes into another full lockdown, we’ll be in one within 3 to 4 weeks I suspect.

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25 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

Looking forward to the slew of 'told you so' type posts from the perrenial doom mongers. 

 

:muggy:

 

On the plus side, it's a full moon for halloween this year, so we can dust down the hockey masks and make sure we've plenty of petrol for the chainsaw. Covid aint the only slayer in town tonight.

 

Told you so's ain't creating the doom, but they're the mongers, aye ok!

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1 minute ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I’m not mentally ill and I don’t need a hug from my mates.🍺

My local is probably one of the safest places to go.

Lets punish the majority.

Try different pubs. I'm sure you'll see a wee difference. Lock ons, Birthday parties etc... And just look at the mentally ill down in Nottingham or wherever it was the other night. Hope they don't feck up their Parents and Grandparents lives cause they need to have a beer. 

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The economy has been fecked for 12 years, so another couple of months isn't gonnae change a thing. It's not been the same since 2008. 

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The Real Maroonblood
1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

Try different pubs. I'm sure you'll see a wee difference. Lock ons, Birthday parties etc... And just look at the mentally ill down in Nottingham or wherever it was the other night. Hope they don't feck up their Parents and Grandparents lives cause they need to have a beer. 

My local is the bestest and safest.

👍🍺🍷

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Mauricio Pinilla
4 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Yes they did but they’re also in the arsehole end of nowhere. The UK is bang in the middle of Europe and a hub to the world it’s not the same ballpark. And look at this thread, or quite literally any thread on here it’s littered with people who are using other agendas to try discredit the SG it’s absolutely ripping out their every pore. Some people will use the opposite to dig out the UK government it’s absolutely ****ing tragic man. 
I see it on FB and Twitter and everywhere people playing the man not the ball. “Boris is the Pm am no listening tae nippy” etc and people wonder why we can’t get our shit together. She’s annoyed the life out of me too btw but at the end of the day I’m not for blaming anyone for this I just think we’ve made bad decision after bad decision after bad decision. We’re now backed into a corner and we have no idea how to get out of it. 
Fwiw I wouldn’t like the police getting anymore authority to intervene. That’s a dangerous place to go. 

 

Closed borders are closed borders regardless of where in the world you are. We're not special. And it doesn't matter what you read on here or facebook or anywhere else, it's a result of the chronic decisions the folk in charge have made since the start as you said. Boris seemingly wanted to go one way and pretty much immediately changed it once he realised the virus was already out of control, since then its been a shambles. What makes it worse is we had weeks of a head start on other countries in Europe and will end up in the same state as them or worse. These problems aren't limited to the UK of course, most countries in Europe have been doing the same stuff as us with similar results. 

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