Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Governor Tarkin]

33 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

It's Not! working too well in Sweden. 17%. And it now seems there were emails from top brass willing to sacrifice the old for quicker immunity among the population. 

 

Whether willing or otherwise, planned or accidental, by the time the dust finally settles this will be the natural outcome to some degree in every country the world over.

 

[SE16 3LN]

Just now, Smithee said:

Well exactly

This is the first time you've ever agreed with me.

[jack D and coke]

9 hours ago, Back to 2005 said:

I'm not trying to be political as have no great interest in it but there is no getting away that these issues are the result of the SNP policy on covid. 

I'm equally critical of the way Johnson has handled it for the UK. 

Yet you call the SNP a cult? Kind of looks like you have an angle tbh. Haven’t seen you call Johnson’s government anything even remotely similar. 
I don’t generally disagree with what your saying but that sets it off on an agenda driven path and you’ll lose people immediately. 

[Governor Tarkin]

6 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

The 

 

We need more The imo.

 

Just now, SE16 3LN said:

This is undoubtedly the most sense I've ever made.

 

Agreed. 👍

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, SE16 3LN said:

This is the first time you've ever agreed with me.

 

You keep knocking them out of the park, I'll keep agreeing

 

[Back to 2005]

7 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Yet you call the SNP a cult? Kind of looks like you have an angle tbh. Haven’t seen you call Johnson’s government anything even remotely similar. 
I don’t generally disagree with what your saying but that sets it off on an agenda driven path and you’ll lose people immediately. 

I would say Sturgeon makes Johnson look the bumbling fool that he is. My interest in this is the human rights of people especially the young. 

Is I say I'm not that interested in politics but if I feel something isn't right I will question it. 

[Francis Albert]

3 hours ago, Bull's-eye said:

 

Probably spouted pish, got pulled up for it, reported it to the powers that be and got someone into bother.

 

It's generally his agenda. 

Just for the record I have never reported anyone or anything to the "powers that be".

 

[jack D and coke]

13 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

I would say Sturgeon makes Johnson look the bumbling fool that he is. My interest in this is the human rights of people especially the young. 

Is I say I'm not that interested in politics but if I feel something isn't right I will question it. 

All fair enough. Starting anything with “cult” will not make people take you seriously though mate. People switch off straight away regardless of how good the points are. 

[SE16 3LN]

7000 M&S jobs to go. While I doubt anyone would be surprised at the decline of the High Street shopping culture, the speed of it, fuelled no doubt by the Pandemic, is remarkable. If you combine that with a massive shift towards home working we are clearly seeing the beginning of the biggest changes in the structure of Western Capitalism for decades. This isn't just going to be about a crash, possible bounce back and who is going to have a job at the end of it all. This is going to be a huge cultural shift and how Govt's and Nation states respond now will shape how we live and work for generations.. All because of the virus eh?

[Francis Albert]

9 hours ago, Notts1874 said:

I will stick with the made up shite he usually posts. He can take me to court. Nasty dangerous individual. 

 

While on the topic of made up shite how brave of you to risk me taking you to court!  Martyrdom for you beckons!

 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

11 hours ago, Back to 2005 said:

Maybe now we have been released from house arrest people have had the chance to build up immunity?

 

Why what had you done to be under house arrest?

[Francis Albert]

15 minutes ago, SE16 3LN said:

7000 M&S jobs to go. While I doubt anyone would be surprised at the decline of the High Street shopping culture, the speed of it, fuelled no doubt by the Pandemic, is remarkable. If you combine that with a massive shift towards home working we are clearly seeing the beginning of the biggest changes in the structure of Western Capitalism for decades. This isn't just going to be about a crash, possible bounce back and who is going to have a job at the end of it all. This is going to be a huge cultural shift and how Govt's and Nation states respond now will shape how we live and work for generations.. All because of the virus eh?

A virus which has still killed fewer than half as many in the UK as the 1968 influenza outbreak did. 

[Ray Gin]

7 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

A virus which has still killed fewer than half as many in the UK as the 1968 influenza outbreak did. 

 

Thanks to a lockdown. 

 

 

[Ray Gin]

46 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

I would say Sturgeon makes Johnson look the bumbling fool that he is. My interest in this is the human rights of people especially the young. 

Is I say I'm not that interested in politics but if I feel something isn't right I will question it. 

 

What about the human rights of the elderly? 

[Jambo-Jimbo]

34 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

All fair enough. Starting anything with “cult” will not make people take you seriously though mate. People switch off straight away regardless of how good the points are. 

 

Exactly the way I see it as well.

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Thanks to a lockdown. 

 

 

The shape of the curve in Sweden which did not lockdown is very similar to the shape of the curve here and in other countries that had lockdown.

Of course here there was no real choice  politically but to lockdown and no doubt it had an effect on ameliorating the short term impact of the virus but to attribute the outcome solely to lockdown isn't really justified. Nor is ignoring the huge collateral damage that goes with it.

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Francis Albert

[Ray Gin]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

The shape of the curve in Sweden which did not lockdown is very similar to the shape of the curve here and in other countries that had lockdown.

Of course here there was no real choice  politically but to lockdown and no doubt it had an effect on ameliorating the short term impact of the virus but to attribute the outcome solely to lockdown isn't really justified. Nor is ignoring the huge collateral damage that goescwithnit.

 

 

No it isn't. Sweden had nowhere near the massive surge of cases suffered in the UK in March pre-lockdown.

[Ray Gin]

 

 

It's a lot easier for a country to take a more measured approach when they were hit considerably less hard by the virus in such a short space of time. When the UK locked down it already had around 4000 cases a day in comparison to Sweden's 400.

 

(The boxed numbers have no relevance its just where my mouse happened to be hovering when taking a screen grab)

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Ray Gin

[Don Dan]

https://apple.news/AfEoq9wX_TCW35-KxP1gjHw
 

Wearing a face covering lowers the risk of spreading Covid-19 to others through speaking and coughing, new research suggests.

Speaking and coughing without face protection exposes people nearby to droplets carrying the virus that could otherwise be stopped by wearing a mask, according to the study.

Researchers found someone standing two metres from a coughing person with no mask is exposed to 10,000 times more droplets than someone half a metre from someone coughing and wearing a covering.

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

 

It's a lot easier for a country to take a more measured approach when they were hit considerably less hard by the virus in such a short space of time. When the UK locked down it already had around 4000 cases a day in comparison to Sweden's 400.

 

(The boxed numbers have no relevance its just where my mouse happened to be hovering when taking a screen grab)

 

Agree. But the shape of the curves are still quite similar, peaking then falling, rising more gradually in Sweden. The more gradual increase certainly helped Sweden and the more rapid increase in UK prompted lockdown ... in fact made it in practice impossible not to take that route.   All I am saying is that the outcomes cannot all be explained by lockdown.

 

[TheOak88]

Was thinking the other day about where the idea of lockdown came from. As far as I am aware it is not something that Western European nations have done before (certainly not in the past 100 years or anything). 

 

Did we all just panic and essentially follow China’s lead as that was what they were doing?

 

I had a brief look at a UK NHS report done a few years ago which was I believe an action plan of how the UK should respond in the case of a pandemic or very bad flu year etc. I could not see any mention of a lockdown - where did the idea come from, I suppose is what I am asking?

[AlimOzturk]

3 minutes ago, TheOak88 said:

Was thinking the other day about where the idea of lockdown came from. As far as I am aware it is not something that Western European nations have done before (certainly not in the past 100 years or anything). 

 

Did we all just panic and essentially follow China’s lead as that was what they were doing?

 

I had a brief look at a UK NHS report done a few years ago which was I believe an action plan of how the UK should respond in the case of a pandemic or very bad flu year etc. I could not see any mention of a lockdown - where did the idea come from, I suppose is what I am asking?

Pretty sure these countries learnt their lesson from the SARS epidemics and had pre prepared protocols in place. We just followed their lead (blindly and after going for herd immunity initially) after the suggestions of the WHO.  The whole thing was and still is a mess. Can’t wait for the “independent” inquiry into the fiasco. 

[SE16 3LN]

21 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Pretty sure these countries learnt their lesson from the SARS epidemics and had pre prepared protocols in place. We just followed their lead (blindly and after going for herd immunity initially) after the suggestions of the WHO.  The whole thing was and still is a mess. Can’t wait for the “independent” inquiry into the fiasco. 

All the UK Nations has a pandemic plan that they'd left on a dusty shelf, probably due to cost. I believe it all came from SARS originally but only an inquiry will tell us why exactly we did so badly.

[Ray Gin]

I suspect that if the Government hadn't faffed about with their dicks in their hands for several weeks before taking action (BoJo actually turning up for some meetings might have helped), then a less strict Swedish-style approach may have been a plausible option. We left it far too late to take any action, by which time the cases had already rocketed to a level that was unmanageable through any action other than a full lockdown. However it is easy to say this in hindsight and by the time we were seeing the massive impact in Italy it may have already been too late.

 

 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

4 hours ago, Lord BJ said:

Whether people like it or not herd immunity is a thing. Humans are very adaptable to survive. Why we’re kind of here today. 
 

I’ve always been of the view herd immunity would occur through the back door. It wouldn’t be a set policy but it something that would occur naturally as people lived life, even in a lockdown environment. 
 

There are now places where significant part of the population are showing antibodies I think there is a city in Middle East that showing over 30% antibodies However, even cities like London are approaching 20%. 
 

As lockdown eases infections appear to be occurring in younger people. They manage to fight it off without too much problem in the main. It’s also probably points to a bit of common sense from the general population are managing risk appropriately. 

 

I think herd immunity and treatments will probably be our saviour as opposed to any vaccine. 
 

 

Agreed . We are basically practising hear immunity now .  

[Governor Tarkin]

55 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

I suspect that if the Government hadn't faffed about with their dicks in their hands for several weeks before taking action (BoJo actually turning up for some meetings might have helped), then a less strict Swedish-style approach may have been a plausible option. We left it far too late to take any action, by which time the cases had already rocketed to a level that was unmanageable through any action other than a full lockdown. However it is easy to say this in hindsight and by the time we were seeing the massive impact in Italy it may have already been too late.

 

 

 

 

Nailed it.

[XXX]

3 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

Anyone seen the pics of the water park in Wuhan? 
 

I seem unable to upload.

 

[Victorian]

SG briefings to be every other day soon.

 

Grampian outbreak starting to show evidence of being suppressed.   It's taken a lockdown,  time and a mammoth effort by Test & Protect to achieve it.   It doesn't take much imagination to see how difficult it would become if a cluster really took hold.

[Victorian]

PHE to be scrapped and replaced by a new body,  comprising the same scientific / medical expertise + 'the best analysts'.

 

The weirdo and his proteges then.  

[Jambo-Jimbo]

2 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

Agree. But the shape of the curves are still quite similar, peaking then falling, rising more gradually in Sweden. The more gradual increase certainly helped Sweden and the more rapid increase in UK prompted lockdown ... in fact made it in practice impossible not to take that route.   All I am saying is that the outcomes cannot all be explained by lockdown.

 

 

Wouldn't population density account for this?

Sweden has something like 25 people per square km, the UK 275 per square km.

It stands to reason that if you have more people clustered closer together, then you are going to see a much more rapid infection rate compared to somewhere which isn't as crowded, meaning there is going to be a slower rate of infection.

 

Population density is something which I believe is pretty much being overlooked, but is imo pivotal to the spread of the virus.

[Victorian]

I'm beginning to think FA works for IKEA or is in an ABBA tribute group or something.    

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

https://apple.news/AfEoq9wX_TCW35-KxP1gjHw
 

Wearing a face covering lowers the risk of spreading Covid-19 to others through speaking and coughing, new research suggests.

Speaking and coughing without face protection exposes people nearby to droplets carrying the virus that could otherwise be stopped by wearing a mask, according to the study.

Researchers found someone standing two metres from a coughing person with no mask is exposed to 10,000 times more droplets than someone half a metre from someone coughing and wearing a covering.

 

5% added protection 10% if you are in a care home. 

[Don Dan]

37 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

5% added protection 10% if you are in a care home. 

Id love to read the source to back up your figures. 
Just as a matter of interest I was at the dentist this morning for a check up with the hygienist and the dentist. All were wearing masks, visors and other appropriate PPE, should I have told them not to bother with the PPE as it provides very little protection according to some posters on here?

Edited August 18, 2020 by Boy Daniel

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Wouldn't population density account for this?

Sweden has something like 25 people per square km, the UK 275 per square km.

It stands to reason that if you have more people clustered closer together, then you are going to see a much more rapid infection rate compared to somewhere which isn't as crowded, meaning there is going to be a slower rate of infection.

 

Population density is something which I believe is pretty much being overlooked, but is imo pivotal to the spread of the virus.

I think it is relevant but the population density for a whole country is probably misleading. Sweden is a heavily urbanised country (in fact as urbanised as UK). There are large areas with few people ( bit more comparable to Scotland than the UK as a whole). The Swedish cases were concentrated in the greater Stockholm and Malmo areas just as in the UK they were concentrated in cities and large  conurbations.

Sweden also has a relatively large proportion of single person households and relatively few multi-generational households which would help to slow the spread. .

[doctor jambo]

13 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

I think it is relevant but the population density for a whole country is probably misleading. Sweden is a heavily urbanised country (in fact as urbanised as UK). There are large areas with few people ( bit more comparable to Scotland than the UK as a whole). The Swedish cases were concentrated in the greater Stockholm and Malmo areas just as in the UK they were concentrated in cities and large  conurbations.

Sweden also has a relatively large proportion of single person households and relatively few multi-generational households which would help to slow the spread. .

its more than likely that vast swathes of the population of the UK have already had it and dont know as they had little/no symptoms.

I suspect the kids are all out there happily infecting each other at present with no risk to themselves at all.

The UK spikes and the US spikes  vs some other countries is probably because the UK is one of the most obese countries on the face of this earth.

The virus has killed the frail, the elderly and the fat.

Precious few others.

To prevent this we have

1- destroyed our enconomy

2- in the process of shedding potentially millions of jobs

3- done untold damage to the wellbeing of children

4- surrendered our liberty to the governments of all colours who now tell us what to wear, where we can go, who we can visit, who we can have sex with ( if not domiciled together), whose businesses are forced shut, banned music in pubs, shut sports down, telling us who we can invite to our houses, who "deserves" government support, and put many people under house arrest who if they break self isolation can be arrested and fined.

Its a hell of a price- dont you think?

[Governor Tarkin]

Are you actually a medical doctor, one of those PhD doctors, or an evil doctor@doctor jambo? 

[Ray Gin]

16 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

Are you actually a medical doctor, one of those PhD doctors, or an evil doctor@doctor jambo? 

 

Medical doctors don't necessarily care about the lives of the elderly.

 

Edited August 18, 2020 by Ray Gin

[Victorian]

1 hour ago, doctor jambo said:

its more than likely that vast swathes of the population of the UK have already had it and dont know as they had little/no symptoms.

I suspect the kids are all out there happily infecting each other at present with no risk to themselves at all.

The UK spikes and the US spikes  vs some other countries is probably because the UK is one of the most obese countries on the face of this earth.

The virus has killed the frail, the elderly and the fat.

Precious few others.

To prevent this we have

1- destroyed our enconomy

2- in the process of shedding potentially millions of jobs

3- done untold damage to the wellbeing of children

4- surrendered our liberty to the governments of all colours who now tell us what to wear, where we can go, who we can visit, who we can have sex with ( if not domiciled together), whose businesses are forced shut, banned music in pubs, shut sports down, telling us who we can invite to our houses, who "deserves" government support, and put many people under house arrest who if they break self isolation can be arrested and fined.

Its a hell of a price- dont you think?

 

How come the highly accurate and much respected ONS surveillance system and antibody survey extrapolation does not support such a claim?

 

14% in London and 6% in most other areas is the frequent result of these surveys.    

 

[Bull's-eye]

Was working in an establishment this morning that is waiting on a plane load of Chinese students to roll up for a two week break 🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤

[doctor jambo]

1 hour ago, Governor Tarkin said:

Are you actually a medical doctor- yes, one of those PhD doctors- no , or an evil doctor-yes @doctor jambo? 

but I am a pragmatist, and "bigger picture" thinker.

Everything we do comes with a cost.

Since the NHS ground to a standstill, or "protected" as they would put it- mental health services stopped visiting people, cancer screening stopped, out patient appointments stopped, routine operations stopped,, diabetic checks stopped and so on- there is a real life cost to this- young lives.

I have long been of the belief that care homes should have been locked down and the shielding groups locked down, and the over 75's locked down.

I fear that the real life costs of this generalised cluster-panic will far outstrip the covid death totals.

NObody wants to say it, but its true- teh younger generation are being thrown to the dogs so the elderly can keep pottering around Dobbies and circling Morrisons car park

[The Real Maroonblood]

11 minutes ago, Bull's-eye said:

Was working in an establishment this morning that is waiting on a plane load of Chinese students to roll up for a two week break 🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤

Will that be after the quarantine?

[doctor jambo]

3 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

https://apple.news/ACfzjrviuSraH6_eyoNz-AA
 

Interesting view that the virus is potentially weakening and we actually dealing with a specific mutation in U.K.. D614G which is way more infectious but less deadly that the initial COVID out break 

 

No idea on validity 🤷🏻‍♂️

I noticed this, we may now be locked down from something utterly harmless.

Scotlands mortality rate from covid is 0%, and has been for some time now

[Bull's-eye]

15 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Will that be after the quarantine?

 

Allegedly it is, yes....🤤🤤🤤🤤

[Francis Albert]

3 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

Id love to read the source to back up your figures. 
Just as a matter of interest I was at the dentist this morning for a check up with the hygienist and the dentist. All were wearing masks, visors and other appropriate PPE, should I have told them not to bother with the PPE as it provides very little protection according to some posters on here?

If I was poking around in someone's mouth at a range of six inches from my own mouth and nose  I would certainly see the value of a mask ... even without coronavirus. Popping into the local shop to get the paper? ... I comply but I am not convinced I am saving me or the unmasked shop assistant from any real risk.

[Don Dan]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

If I was poking around in someone's mouth at a range of six inches from my own mouth and nose  I would certainly see the value of a mask ... even without coronavirus. Popping into the local shop to get the paper? ... I comply but I am not convinced I am saving me or the unmasked shop assistant from any real risk.

So many spikes of infections are around close contact with people in enclosed spaces. Victoria Bar in Leith had to shut its doors just the other day because of a customer testing positive. 
 

Only a handful of customers were in the Victoria Bar at the same time as the infected customer, who isn’t believed to have visited any other bars or restaurants.

Ms Christopherson said: “I made the decision to close the bar.

“We found out at midnight last night that there had been someone with a case at the bar on Friday afternoon.

“The bar was quiet and the person had been to Malta, where it's suspected they contracted the virus.

"The customer had a mask on, so hopefully that will have helped prevent the spread.”

https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/health/edinburghs-victoria-bar-makes-decision-close-after-customer-tests-positive-coronavirus-2943842

 

[All roads lead to Gorgie]

27 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

https://apple.news/ACfzjrviuSraH6_eyoNz-AA
 

Interesting view that the virus is potentially weakening and we actually dealing with a specific mutation in U.K.. D614G which is way more infectious but less deadly that the initial COVID out break 

 

No idea on validity 🤷🏻‍♂️

I wonder if it will mutate in the same way or already has on the continent, if that report is accurate that is. Would help to open up travel maybe where other countries can prove they have the same mutation. Keep countries where the first strain is still on the rise off the places safe to travel to and from though for now.

[Seymour M Hersh]

3 hours ago, Boy Daniel said:

Id love to read the source to back up your figures. 
Just as a matter of interest I was at the dentist this morning for a check up with the hygienist and the dentist. All were wearing masks, visors and other appropriate PPE, should I have told them not to bother with the PPE as it provides very little protection according to some posters on here?

 

I either heard it on Sky News as a report on some research or read it online in a newspaper again reporting on some scientific research done. Sorry I cannot (at this time) link to it but will if I can remember where it was I saw/heard it. As for your dentist analogy that's kid of stupid as they've worn these pep items for years for a host of other things and nothing to do with the Wuhan bug. 

[Harry Potter]

6 hours ago, TheOak88 said:

Was thinking the other day about where the idea of lockdown came from. As far as I am aware it is not something that Western European nations have done before (certainly not in the past 100 years or anything). 

 

Did we all just panic and essentially follow China’s lead as that was what they were doing?

 

I had a brief look at a UK NHS report done a few years ago which was I believe an action plan of how the UK should respond in the case of a pandemic or very bad flu year etc. I could not see any mention of a lockdown - where did the idea come from, I suppose is what I am asking?

Probably was the advice by scientists to the health ministers, it certainly had to be done,

that is not in dispute.

[TheOak88]

3 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

Probably was the advice by scientists to the health ministers, it certainly had to be done,

that is not in dispute.

 

Yeah I understand it would have been on advice from medical advisors. 

 

But medical professionals within the NHS have drawn up contingency plans in the past (as recently as 2016) as to what our options are/how to handle a pandemic if it hit the country. And lockdown does not appear to have been listed as an option/plan. 

 

It feels to me a bit like China went with a lockdown (as they would due to being a pretty authoritative totalitarian state); then Italy followed suit due to the problems they had, which then just seemed to set off a domino effect in Western Europe that lockdown is the way to deal with this (without really thinking through the consequences). 

 

Do you think the length of lockdown we have had should be in dispute, out of interest?

[Nucky Thompson]

39 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

https://apple.news/ACfzjrviuSraH6_eyoNz-AA
 

Interesting view that the virus is potentially weakening and we actually dealing with a specific mutation in U.K.. D614G which is way more infectious but less deadly that the initial COVID out break 

 

No idea on validity 🤷🏻‍♂️

It's pretty much what the data has been telling us for a couple of months now and at least scientists are now saying it.

 

President-elect of the international society of infectious diseases sounds like a good source to me