Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[pablo]

25 minutes ago, Gulpener said:

Air France and Aer Lingus used to send 747's for the 5 Nations rugby. Weight is all dependent on fuel load, amount of passengers and amount of cargo/luggage. A lightly loaded 747 would have no problem departing Edinburgh.

 

There is not enough demand to regularly fill a 747 and compared with modern twin engined (B787, A350) they are way more inefficient. That's why many airlines are withdrawing them.

There is still a use for them as freighters though.

 

 

Cheers. Good knowledge 👌 

[Fxxx the SPFL]

10 hours ago, Dannie Boy said:

Just for a matter of interest this plane landed at Edinburgh airport this morning😳

 

not doubting you DB but that doesn't look like Edinburgh airport or am i just being a wally

[Gulpener]

11 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

not doubting you DB but that doesn't look like Edinburgh airport or am i just being a wally

 

That picture was not taken at Edinburgh but that exact aircraft did land there.

[kila]

There’s videos of it landing and departing on YouTube if that sort of thing floats your boat.

 

 

[Fxxx the SPFL]

3 minutes ago, Gulpener said:

 

That picture was not taken at Edinburgh but that exact aircraft did land there.

cheers bro wasn't doubting DB

[theshed]

13 minutes ago, **** the SPFL said:

not doubting you DB but that doesn't look like Edinburgh airport or am i just being a wally

Will be the stock photo that comes up when you look up flight tracker or similar 

[Fxxx the SPFL]

6 minutes ago, theshed said:

Will be the stock photo that comes up when you look up flight tracker or similar 

cheers i should ask my bro to take a picture his house backs onto the runway.

[highlandjambo3]

56 minutes ago, Gulpener said:

Air France and Aer Lingus used to send 747's for the 5 Nations rugby. Weight is all dependent on fuel load, amount of passengers and amount of cargo/luggage. A lightly loaded 747 would have no problem departing Edinburgh.

 

There is not enough demand to regularly fill a 747 and compared with modern twin engined (B787, A350) they are way more inefficient. That's why many airlines are withdrawing them.

There is still a use for them as freighters though.

 

Reminds me of a time in Belize when flying out in a helicopter on patrol.......

 

Now the RAF only carry an amount of fuel based on load distance etc (makes sense not to be full up as your burning fuel carrying excess fuel you don’t need) anyway, after hovering around the drop off point for about 5 minutes we moved off and ended up hovering over a lake........to our surprise (horror) the load master opened the door and started chucking our packs out, we ended up jumping out after them (about 30 foot)........

It transpired the landing point was too overgrown to land and, the helicopter didn’t have enough full to fly back to base fully loaded....... that was a shit day 😒

[The Real Maroonblood]

1 hour ago, Gulpener said:

Air France and Aer Lingus used to send 747's for the 5 Nations rugby. Weight is all dependent on fuel load, amount of passengers and amount of cargo/luggage. A lightly loaded 747 would have no problem departing Edinburgh.

 

There is not enough demand to regularly fill a 747 and compared with modern twin engined (B787, A350) they are way more inefficient. That's why many airlines are withdrawing them.

There is still a use for them as freighters though.

 

Thanks for that info.

[Cade]

Most of SAGE reckons that the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 and the rate of new infections is still too high to think about relaxing anything.

 

But the Government is full steam ahead in getting back to normal anyways.

 

2nd peak is going to come very, very soon.

[The Real Maroonblood]

4 minutes ago, Cade said:

Most of SAGE reckons that the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 and the rate of new infections is still too high to think about relaxing anything.

 

But the Government is full steam ahead in getting back to normal anyways.

 

2nd peak is going to come very, very soon.

Shit and fan.

 

[Ray Gin]

"Why I quit working on Boris Johnson's ‘world-beating' test-and-tracing system

 

We’re not highly trained – we’ve been sitting around doing nothing. This programme is not fit to bring Britain out of lockdown" 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

Ffs

Edited May 30, 2020 by Ray Gin

[Blackie the Cat]

Obviously only my opinion but I think we are already through the 2nd Phase already and things should be getting back to normal. 

 

Yes, it's a bad virus and many people have died and this is sad to tragic which it is at any time.   

 

I have seen figures, spoken to doctor friends as well as reading articles for and against lockdown and believe we won't be in lockdown as long as some of the predictions. We are also doing more harm physically and economically and will cause more deaths by not getting back to some sort of normality as soon as possible.

 

I would like to say my apologies and condolences to anyone that has lost friends or loved ones as I would at any time.

 

Only time will tell and I may be wrong but before you think I am wrong or mad please look into the number of deaths from the flu in past years especially 2000 and just 5 years ago in 2015 before deciding.

 

Keep Calm and Carry On.

[Don Dan]

3 hours ago, pablo said:

 I always thought that 747s were too heavy to take off from EDI. Must have been wrong, wonder why there's none routinely operating?

 
That’s what I thought but Flightradar24 and seeing from my window flying in front of the Bridges surprised me. 

[Don Dan]

1 hour ago, **** the SPFL said:

not doubting you DB but that doesn't look like Edinburgh airport or am i just being a wally

That is a stock photo That appears when you click to identify the plane. Flightradar24 is great for seeing the and identifying aircraft movements around the world. 
 

[hughesie27]

33 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

"Why I quit working on Boris Johnson's ‘world-beating' test-and-tracing system

 

We’re not highly trained – we’ve been sitting around doing nothing. This programme is not fit to bring Britain out of lockdown" 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

Ffs

Where do I apply?

[Ray Gin]

5 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Obviously only my opinion but I think we are already through the 2nd Phase already and things should be getting back to normal. 

 

Yes, it's a bad virus and many people have died and this is sad to tragic which it is at any time.   

 

I have seen figures, spoken to doctor friends as well as reading articles for and against lockdown and believe we won't be in lockdown as long as some of the predictions. We are also doing more harm physically and economically and will cause more deaths by not getting back to some sort of normality as soon as possible.

 

I would like to say my apologies and condolences to anyone that has lost friends or loved ones as I would at any time.

 

Only time will tell and I may be wrong but before you think I am wrong or mad please look into the number of deaths from the flu in past years especially 2000 and just 5 years ago in 2015 before deciding.

 

Keep Calm and Carry On.

 

Deaths are up 60k on the 5 year average. Do explain if this is no worse than flu. 

[hughesie27]

5 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Obviously only my opinion but I think we are already through the 2nd Phase already and things should be getting back to normal. 

 

Yes, it's a bad virus and many people have died and this is sad to tragic which it is at any time.   

 

I have seen figures, spoken to doctor friends as well as reading articles for and against lockdown and believe we won't be in lockdown as long as some of the predictions. We are also doing more harm physically and economically and will cause more deaths by not getting back to some sort of normality as soon as possible.

 

I would like to say my apologies and condolences to anyone that has lost friends or loved ones as I would at any time.

 

Only time will tell and I may be wrong but before you think I am wrong or mad please look into the number of deaths from the flu in past years especially 2000 and just 5 years ago in 2015 before deciding.

 

Keep Calm and Carry On.

Still people trying to compare this to the Flu. Astounding.

[Ray Gin]

I've seen figures, I've seen things. 

[Unknown user]

15 hours ago, kila said:

 

Just what we need, covid swinging from the trees

 

 

Flying AIDS 

[Victorian]

57 minutes ago, Cade said:

Most of SAGE reckons that the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 and the rate of new infections is still too high to think about relaxing anything.

 

But the Government is full steam ahead in getting back to normal anyways.

 

2nd peak is going to come very, very soon.

 

It's the relationship or inter-play between the 'R' and the prevalence and incidence,   along with TTT&I replacing lockdown.

 

One of 3 scenarios will come about.    The virus will very gradually weaken and seem to disappear for a while.    It will remain at a fairly high prevalence on an ongoing basis,   without becoming exponential.    It will become exponential and another lockdown will be required.

 

The effectiveness of the gvt's TTT&I system will detemine if it's the second or third scenario.    The first is fanciful but is not impossible.    

 

Come what may,   another lockdown would be extremely damaging and much more difficult to convince people to observe.     This would be,   by a magnitude,   worse that this lockdown remaining for another 2 months to suppress the virus to lower levels.    The government has calculated that they want this lockdown rolled back,   starting now.     Ordinarily that might suggest that there is high(ish) confidence in the scientific community and at government level.    But it's not easy to suddenly make that kind of assumption about this lot.     

[Taffin]

1 hour ago, hughesie27 said:

Still people trying to compare this to the Flu. Astounding.

 

Is it that different from the flu? Bearing in mind we have a vaccine for the flu. If we didn't, what would the annual deaths from flu be?

 

Again, that's a genuine question before I'm accused of being some kind of Covid-19 denier.

[Ray Gin]

21 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Is it that different from the flu? Bearing in mind we have a vaccine for the flu. If we didn't, what would the annual deaths from flu be?

 

Again, that's a genuine question before I'm accused of being some kind of Covid-19 denier.

 

Covid-19 death rate = around 3.5% globally

 

Flu around 1% globally

Edited May 30, 2020 by Ray Gin

[Blackie the Cat]

Here is a 100% fact - Covid-19 isn’t classed as a highly infectious disease in the UK because of low overall deaths.

 

[Spellczech]

1 minute ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Here is a 100% fact - Covid-19 isn’t classed as a highly infectious disease in the UK because of low overall deaths.

 

Surely infectiousness (if that is a word) is different from how fatal a disease is?

[Shanks]

2 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Here is a 100% fact - Covid-19 isn’t classed as a highly infectious disease in the UK because of low overall deaths.

 

you no going to answer any of the above questions?

[Dawnrazor]

19 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Covid-19 death rate = around 3.5% globally

 

Flu around 1% globally

The flu vaccine will obviously effect the figures, it'll be years I think after a Covid vaccine is, hopefully, found that the figures can be compared. 

[Lone Striker]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

It's the relationship or inter-play between the 'R' and the prevalence and incidence,   along with TTT&I replacing lockdown.

 

One of 3 scenarios will come about.    The virus will very gradually weaken and seem to disappear for a while.    It will remain at a fairly high prevalence on an ongoing basis,   without becoming exponential.    It will become exponential and another lockdown will be required.

 

The effectiveness of the gvt's TTT&I system will detemine if it's the second or third scenario.    The first is fanciful but is not impossible.    

 

Come what may,   another lockdown would be extremely damaging and much more difficult to convince people to observe.     This would be,   by a magnitude,   worse that this lockdown remaining for another 2 months to suppress the virus to lower levels.    The government has calculated that they want this lockdown rolled back,   starting now.     Ordinarily that might suggest that there is high(ish) confidence in the scientific community and at government level.    But it's not easy to suddenly make that kind of assumption about this lot.     

Good post...and realistic too.

 

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that R for any modern deadly disease  never reaches 0.  The best you can hope for is a low number like 0.3, which probably takes the disease off the TV news pretty much forever. until the R number goes up again.    The explanations & illustrations on TV  of what R represents have been misleading and too simplistic. As you say, loads of other factors are involved in its calculation .... and its an average of averages of estimates (etc).  They end up describing it as something like "R=0.5 means that it takes 2 infected people to infect 1 new person"   ... which is a rather ridiculous way of describing it, IMO. 

 

[Blackie the Cat]

2 hours ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Deaths are up 60k on the 5 year average. Do explain if this is no worse than flu. 

I have said this is bad it’s NOT average. It’s a bad bad year.
PLEASE check the figures for here in the UK and globally. 

[Blackie the Cat]

2 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Still people trying to compare this to the Flu. Astounding.

Please can tell me how many people have died from the flu this year/season?

[Shanks]

5 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

I have said this is bad it’s NOT average. It’s a bad bad year.
PLEASE check the figures for here in the UK and globally. 

So we are having a ‘bad bad year’ despite having a full blown lockdown.  
 

would it have just been a bad bad bad year if we carried on as normal? 
 

 

[Taffin]

33 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Covid-19 death rate = around 3.5% globally

 

Flu around 1% globally

 

Say we didn't issue any flu vaccines next year though what would it be? Or have you accounted for that? Apologies of you have.

[Blackie the Cat]

7 minutes ago, Shanks said:

So we are having a ‘bad bad year’ despite having a full blown lockdown.  
 

would it have just been a bad bad bad year if we carried on as normal? 
 

 

 

Some say and I believe we are passed the 2nd phase so lockdown maybe didn't make as much difference as we are being told.  

[JackLadd]

I still don't get why we are allowing any flights into the country and going down this two week self quarantine idiocy that will never be enforced. Baffling to me. 

[Blackie the Cat]

Here is another 100% fact  - Globally up to 650,000 die each year due to respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu. At the moment there are just over 367,000 that have died from Covid-19.    

[Lone Striker]

1 minute ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Here is another 100% fact  - Globally up to 650,000 die each year due to respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu. At the moment there are just over 367,000 that have died from Covid-19.    

... is the important caveat.  Its taken 5 months for 367k to die, and most countries haven't yet had to deal with a 2nd wave which looks increasingly likely to happen given the headlong rush to let people start moving around.

[Ray Gin]

35 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Here is a 100% fact - Covid-19 isn’t classed as a highly infectious disease in the UK because of low overall deaths.

 

 

Correct, it's classed as highly infectious because it is highly infectious. 

 

 

[Ray Gin]

4 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Here is another 100% fact  - Globally up to 650,000 die each year due to respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu. At the moment there are just over 367,000 that have died from Covid-19.    

 

So Covid has managed 50% of the flu death rate in just 6 months despite lockdowns all over the world.

 

 

 

 

[Governor Tarkin]

22 minutes ago, Shanks said:

 

would it have just been a bad bad bad year if we carried on as normal? 
 

 

 

Probably, only the deaths would have come closer together instead of spread out over many months.

 

Barring the invention of a miracle vaccine or cure, in the final analysis the figures will be more or less the same.

[Blackie the Cat]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Correct, it's classed as highly infectious because it is highly infectious. 

 

 

 

WRONG it is NOT classed as highly infectious - FACT. 

[Blackie the Cat]

1 minute ago, Ray Gin said:

 

So Covid has managed 50% of the flu death rate in just 6 months despite lockdowns all over the world.

 

 

 

 

 

CORRECT 

[Governor Tarkin]

Just now, Ray Gin said:

 

So Covid has managed 50% of the flu death rate in just 6 months despite lockdowns all over the world.

 

 

 

 

 

Covid has ripped through institutional settings in a way the flu is vaccinated against. In the developed world at least.

 

[frankblack]

15 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

I still don't get why we are allowing any flights into the country and going down this two week self quarantine idiocy that will never be enforced. Baffling to me. 

 

Because the Tories want the peasants back working again to put money into the coffers of their donor's pockets.  Health and safety isn't a factor as that is being bypassed.

[Ray Gin]

6 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

 

WRONG it is NOT classed as highly infectious - FACT. 

 

Yes it is. It's just not considered a "high consequence infectious disease" since the death rate compared to infection rate is relatively low. That still means potentially hundreds of thousands of people dying if it is left to rampage through the country unchecked.

 

You might be cool with that. I'm not.

 

 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Ray Gin

[Ray Gin]

37 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Please can tell me how many people have died from the flu this year/season?

 

Average about 17k.

Covid in the UK in 6 months despite 2 month lockdown - about 60k.

[Captain Sausage]

4 minutes ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Here is another 100% fact  - Globally up to 650,000 die each year due to respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu. At the moment there are just over 367,000 that have died from Covid-19.    

Are you dense or just being wilfully obtuse?

 

When did we last lockdown for the flu? Look at the exponential growth of deaths and how it correlates with lockdown. 
 

If we hadn’t locked down, deaths would have continued to exponentially increase and would’ve been in the millions world wide.

 

The mortality rate of COVID19 (disease caused by coronavirus) is also misleading. SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus) is typically asymptomatic. Very limited sample, but data from an Antarctic cruise ship showed 80% of 128 people who contracted SARS-CoV-2 were asymptomatic. That means they did not ‘get’ COVID-19. 
 

So if you take the death rate quoted above of 3.5% (Worldometer quotes the IFR [infection fatality rate] at 1.4%), and assume the data from the cruise ship are accurate, then the death rate as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 is actually 0.7%. 
 

There are a few assumptions in this, primarily that only people with COVID-19 test positive for SARS-CoV-2 (using that assumption as it’ll primarily be those with COVID-19 symptoms who request testing) but if you use the worldometer IFR and these assumptions, that death rate reduces to 0.3%. 
 

In addition, COVID-19 mortality is extremely heavily weighted towards those over 65. So for young people, there is genuinely very little to fear from this virus.

 

In comparison to flu, which has an IFR of around 0.1%, COVID-19 is somewhere between 3 and 10 times more deadly, but it’s also massively more transmissible which is the biggest issues. However, flu is extremely dangerous to both the young and the old, whether thankfully COVID-19 appears to be of little consequence to young people. The R(t) [transmission rate] of the flu is around 1.3 and somewhere between 2 and 3 for COVID-19 which is an absolutely incredible difference and the biggest reason for the lockdown. 
 

TLDR: COVID-19 is more infectious, and more deadly than the flu. Lockdown was obviously the right thing to do. But for context, those under 65 should not be as fearful of this thing as the media is making us. 

[Blackie the Cat]

9 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Average about 17k.

Covid in the UK in 6 months despite 2 month lockdown - about 60k.

Correct 7k in an average year. This is NOT an average year.

 

60k?????? What is this?

[JackLadd]

14 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

Because the Tories want the peasants back working again to put money into the coffers of their donor's pockets.  Health and safety isn't a factor as that is being bypassed.

 

Absolutely. And then when it blows up again they will wonder why it happened and just do it all over again. 

[Ray Gin]

2 minutes ago, Captain Sausage said:

But for context, those under 65 should not be as fearful of this thing as the media is making us. 

 

Provided they are cool with potentially killing their parents/grandparents by passing it on to them.

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, Blackie the Cat said:

Correct 7k in an average year. This is NOT an average year.

 

60k?????? What is this?

 

Is English your first language? You don't seem to understand words.