Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Hmfc1965]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

No offence but it appears you don't get it.

 

It's about protecting everyone.  The tiny percentage who might/will need hospitalisation presents two problems.

 

1.  The tiny percentage of any very large volume of infections can still represent a very high number for the hospitals to accomodate and it can all come quickly.  1% of 1,000,000 total infections = 10,000,  which would be well within the scope of what can be managed.  1% of 20,000,000 = 200,000,  which is well beyond the total capacity of hospitals.

 

2.  If we only concentrated on dealing with covid and filled the hospitals with covid cases,  hardly anything else gets dealt with,  which means all sorts of stored up harms for everyone.  Again.

 

Nobody has changed their minds.  Not to continue some sort of agenda.  This isn't some kind of ideological struggle between opposing agendas.  It is and always has been a matter of the sum total of care that can be provided to ALL people in accordance with volume of demand,  duration of care and available resources.

 

Separately there is an additional matter of unsustainable numbers of people being absent from work due to positive tests and isolation periods.  This includes frontline hospital staff,  critical care home staff and all of the people necessary for the continuation of supply chains and essential shops and services.

 

All of these things are real and must be planned for.  They're so critical to the country and the population that they cannot just be ignored or trivialised.

 

My current thinking is that,  if and when the governments get a reasonable idea that hospitals will be able to cope and have some degree of certainty going ahead,  that governments will actively seek to make this last as short a time as possible.  A managed let it rip.  No lockdowns.  Minimal measures.  But something radical may need to be considered regarding isolation.  Lockdowns and hard suppression will not manage this wave to conclusion very quickly.  It would go on and the effects will be ongoing for the whole of next year.  An awful prospect.

 

Those are the problems to deal with and to try to find a least bad solution for.

 

The NHS has done more or less nothing other than Covid since March 2020.

 

There's also a certain irony about bemoaning people having to isolate and missing work when it's the government's new rules that unnecessarily will cause a lot of that.

[Victorian]

Just now, Hmfc1965 said:

The NHS has done more or less nothing other than Covid since March 2020.

 

There's also a certain irony about bemoaning people having to isolate and missing work when it's the government's new rules that unnecessarily will cause a lot of that.

 

Erm.. that's why I suggested that something radical may be required.

 

Yes,  no?

[Hmfc1965]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

Erm.. that's why I suggested that something radical may be required.

 

Yes,  no?

Fair enough. 

I'm just fed up with the government imposing restrictions then moaning about the effects. 

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, Hmfc1965 said:

Fair enough. 

I'm just fed up with the government imposing restrictions then moaning about the effects. 

 

They're not "moaning" about effects.  They have to deal with effects.  The current dynamic is that people are required to isolate,  either being positive or as a contact.  The possible scale of infections will cause an enormous number of isolations.  That will undoubtedly cause a conflict of priorities between the scientific advisors and whoever advises regarding infrastructure,  resilience,  logistics,  etc.  

 

Something will need to give.

[Hmfc1965]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

They're not "moaning" about effects.  They have to deal with effects.  The current dynamic is that people are required to isolate,  either being positive or as a contact.  The possible scale of infections will cause an enormous number of isolations.  That will undoubtedly cause a conflict of priorities between the scientific advisors and whoever advises regarding infrastructure,  resilience,  logistics,  etc.  

 

Something will need to give.

Yes something will need to give.

But the fact is they have chosen to implement these isolation rules, presumably with an understanding of their effect.

[Victorian]

6 minutes ago, Hmfc1965 said:

Yes something will need to give.

But the fact is they have chosen to implement these isolation rules, presumably with an understanding of their effect.

 

Of course.  But this is the first time in the pandemic when infection figures are predicted/expected to be at this scale.

 

The relevant people will be well aware of this problem.  

[milky_26]

dont know if it has been posted but at least in england the requirement to isolate after being in contact with an omicron positive person has been removed for fully vaccinated people. they however do need to take daily tests.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59628609

[Hmfc1965]

2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Of course.  But this is the first time in the pandemic when infection figures are predicted/expected to be at this scale.

 

The relevant people will be well aware of this problem.  

Let's hope so. 

The question is what people are infected with and what effect it has.

 

[Hmfc1965]

1 minute ago, milky_26 said:

dont know if it has been posted but at least in england the requirement to isolate after being in contact with an omicron positive person has been removed for fully vaccinated people. they however do need to take daily tests.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59628609

Yes but the Scottish Government know better. 

[Victorian]

Just now, Hmfc1965 said:

Let's hope so. 

The question is what people are infected with and what effect it has.

 

 

That wont matter.  Omicron will make up the vast majority of cases within a week.  It's better that way.  Things would be more complicated if Delta was able to plod along in big numbers under omicron.  The hope is that omicron will come and go swiftly and pagger delta in the process.  

[Enzo Chiefo]

3 hours ago, Victorian said:

The range of scenarios provided to the governments include a 'best' case (of the range) that assumes a rate of severe illness of 50% that of Delta.  Representative of that,  the working figure is 1% of infections becoming hospitalisations.

 

As before,  hospitalisations occur approximately 15 to 30 days after the infection.  Yesterday we were treated to the eternal point missing ignorance about current hospitalisations being very low as some kind of proof that omicron is being over-estimated.  Utter rubbish.  Yesterday's hospitalisation are representative of Delta infections of 15 to 30 days prior.  When the omicron figures begin to feed in,  hospitalisations will arise accordingly.  Day 'x' infections = day 'x'+15 - 'x'+30 hospitalisations.

 

So we'll see how it goes.  It's possible the severity will be less than 50% of Delta.  Let's hope so.  Omicron infections are only now beginning to reach the hospitalisation window and in trivial numbers.  You still need to track the true relationship between infections and hospitalisations along the same time staggered line.

 

👍

 You're well off the mark with your figures Vic. 

30 days ? Really? You're confusing infection and diagnosis.

The median length of time between diagnosis and hospitalisation is 3 - 10 days. Confirmed Omicron cases in the UK from a couple of weeks ago are well past the stage of being hospitalised.

[Victorian]

5 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

 You're well off the mark with your figures Vic. 

30 days ? Really? You're confusing infection and diagnosis.

The median length of time between diagnosis and hospitalisation is 3 - 10 days. Confirmed Omicron cases in the UK from a couple of weeks ago are well past the stage of being hospitalised.

 

Could well be but it's immaterial to the point about there being a lag in time.  But yes,  I wont argue about the actual number of days.  I suspect that the lower end of your figures would be in a distinct minority and that most would be at the upper end.

 

The initial,  trivial numbers are now in that window.  It will soon become apparent once the numbers of greater scale feed through.

[Nucky Thompson]

48k positive cases in the UK, below 50k for the 1st time in 5 days

Deaths and hospitalisations seem to have plateaued.

530k boosters given yesterday

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

Of course.  But this is the first time in the pandemic when infection figures are predicted/expected to be at this scale.

 

The relevant people will be well aware of this problem.  

Not really Vic. Modelling last March also forecast 80% of the population would be infected. Utterly ludicrous, even back then.

In July, we were told to expect 100k or even 200k daily cases . Again, well off the mark and, indeed, to this day, with restrictions removed and Omicron apparently "galloping " along, UK case numbers are bobbing along at the same level. A level that is still lower than the figures immediately before lockdown lifting in July.

The modellers make the same mistakes time and time again and, now, I don't really think people are paying much attention to them tbh.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Not really Vic. Modelling last March also forecast 80% of the population would be infected. Utterly ludicrous, even back then.

In July, we were told to expect 100k or even 200k daily cases . Again, well off the mark and, indeed, to this day, with restrictions removed and Omicron apparently "galloping " along, UK case numbers are bobbing along at the same level. A level that is still lower than the figures immediately before lockdown lifting in July.

The modellers make the same mistakes time and time again and, now, I don't really think people are paying much attention to them tbh.

 

Well we'll see soon enough,  either way.  No hiding place for anyone.  Modellers.  Anyone inclined to take the predictions seriously.  Anyone dismissing the predictions.

 

You agree?

[Ray Gin]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59627188

Uk Covid-19 hospitalisation admissions now confirmed to have omicron. No numbers given so far.

 

Hopefully just a short stay and no need for ICU.

 

 

 

 

[Enzo Chiefo]

34 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Well we'll see soon enough,  either way.  No hiding place for anyone.  Modellers.  Anyone inclined to take the predictions seriously.  Anyone dismissing the predictions.

 

You agree?

Yip. I agree.👍

[Victorian]

8 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59627188

Uk Covid-19 hospitalisation admissions now confirmed to have omicron. No numbers given so far.

 

Hopefully just a short stay and no need for ICU.

 

 

 

 

 

The short stay part will be very important.  If for whatever reason stays in hospital are brief then all the better for hospitals coping.  There should,  in theory,  be a lot of people able to stay away from hospital by way of the anti-viral pill.

[escobri]

Boris on at 8pm, resignation?🤪 or more restrictions? 

[JudyJudyJudy]

13 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59627188

Uk Covid-19 hospitalisation admissions now confirmed to have omicron. No numbers given so far.

 

Hopefully just a short stay and no need for ICU.

 

 

 

 

The article doesn't state that they are actually in the hospital because of covid. They may be in for other reasons and be tested in there and test positive for it. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

7 minutes ago, escobri said:

Boris on at 8pm, resignation?🤪 or more restrictions? 

More restrictions to deflect from any talk of his resignation.

 

[Taffin]

9 minutes ago, escobri said:

Boris on at 8pm, resignation?🤪 or more restrictions? 

 

UK Covid alert also raised to level 4. Interestingly it's only at level 5 that it's considered there is a risk of health services being overwhelmed 

[Nucky Thompson]

8 minutes ago, escobri said:

Boris on at 8pm, resignation?🤪 or more restrictions? 

Vaccine booster mission and warning about how more transmissible Omicron is.

I won't be watching the slavering erse 

He's not even got plan B through parliament yet, so I doubt he move to plan C 

[Ray Gin]

10 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

The article doesn't state that they are actually in the hospital because of covid. They may be in for other reasons and be tested in there and test positive for it. 

 

True

[escobri]

1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Vaccine booster mission and warning about how more transmissible Omicron is.

I won't be watching the slavering erse 

He's not even got plan B through parliament yet, so I doubt he move to plan C 

Increase the fear to secure the vote, Labour on side with him aswell makes it a formality. Mandatory jabs and digital health pass for everyone/ everywhere ain't that far away now.

[JudyJudyJudy]

6 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Vaccine booster mission and warning about how more transmissible Omicron is.

I won't be watching the slavering erse 

He's not even got plan B through parliament yet, so I doubt he move to plan C 

Not unsurprisingly the spineless jelly fish Starmer has stated he will support him on Tuesday. 

[Victorian]

Ah Spaffer at 8pm on a Sunday.  What better way to round off a weekend?

[Ray Gin]

2 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

 You're well off the mark with your figures Vic. 

30 days ? Really? You're confusing infection and diagnosis.

The median length of time between diagnosis and hospitalisation is 3 - 10 days. Confirmed Omicron cases in the UK from a couple of weeks ago are well past the stage of being hospitalised.

 

https://backup.ons.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Coronavirus-COVID-19-Infection-Survey-technical-article-waves-and-lags-of-COVID-19-in-England-June-2021.pdf

The time between COVID-19 infection and symptom onset varies between 1 and 14 days, with an average of 5 to 6 days.

The median delay (lag) between symptom onset and hospital admission varies between 1 and 6.7 days depending on age and whether the patient lives in a nursing home.
 

Time between symptom onset and death from COVID-19 ranges from 2 to 8 weeks, with reported median times of 16 or 19 days.

 

 

So someone can test positive, get symptoms over week later, end up in hospital 6 days later, and then die a couple of weeks after that. So a lag of around 2 weeks for hospital admissions after testing positive is well within the normal range, with 3 weeks not unheard of.

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2021 by Ray Gin

[The Mighty Thor]

25 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Ah Spaffer at 8pm on a Sunday.  What better way to round off a weekend?

Caught lying in the morning papers?

Dead cat in the evening should sort that out👍

[Nucky Thompson]

A pre-recorded speech so he doesn't have to answer questions 

[The Mighty Thor]

2 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

A pre-recorded speech so he doesn't have to answer questions 

He's got a houseful from 8 and he's on the decks

[milky_26]

8 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

He's got a houseful from 8 and he's on the decks

its ok it is just all his kids coming round

[Shooter McGavin]

Nearly 70% of the population vaccinated, and yet we seem to have made absolutely zero progress and are on the verge of more restrictions being imposed.
 

Vaccination is the way out of all this don’t you know…..

[Ray Gin]

1 minute ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Nearly 70% of the population vaccinated, and yet we seem to have made absolutely zero progress and are on the verge of more restrictions being imposed.
 

Vaccination is the way out of all this don’t you know…..

 

Zero progress? It's thanks to the vaccines that we've been living with relative normality for several months. That was massive progress.

 

However only 38% are currently boosted and therefore properly vaccinated against the new strain. Thankfully we've been making good progress on this otherwise we'd not be in a great place right now.

 

The more people wandering about unvaccinated there are, the greater the chance of new strains emerging.

 

 

 

[NANOJAMBO]

5 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Nearly 70% of the population vaccinated, and yet we seem to have made absolutely zero progress and are on the verge of more restrictions being imposed.
 

Vaccination is the way out of all this don’t you know…..

Nowhere near that figure are FULLY vaccinated and the number fully vaxed and boosted is even smaller. Still much work to be done against an ever mutating virus. 

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

I'm sure they'll find some poor sod who has plethora of unknown underlying health conditions and interview him/her expressing their tearful regret at not getting vaxxed or something.

Not necessarily you Jonesy but there is an underlying theme that people with underlying health conditions are in some way expendable and that they shouldn't count in the stats. Often from the same people who compare the treatment of the unvaccinated to Jews treatment by the Nazis.

 

I find it all a bit bizarre really 

[Gizmo]

1 hour ago, Victorian said:

 

The short stay part will be very important.  If for whatever reason stays in hospital are brief then all the better for hospitals coping.  There should,  in theory,  be a lot of people able to stay away from hospital by way of the anti-viral pill.

 

That's my hope after seeing how quickly Omicron is doubling. 

 

Better treatments further reducing length and severity of those hospitalised and GPS able to give treatment earlier to prevent potential hospitalizations. 

 

Those booster numbers are also encouraging, we might yet trap this variant with the tools we are deploying and not see the higher levels of infections predicted by the worst case scenario. 

[Savage Vince]

13 minutes ago, NANOJAMBO said:

Nowhere near that figure are FULLY vaccinated and the number fully vaxed and boosted is even smaller. Still much work to be done against an ever mutating virus. 

 

The vaccination numbers are really poor but sadly not surprising. 

[Savage Vince]

6 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

Not necessarily you Jonesy but there is an underlying theme that people with underlying health conditions are in some way expendable and that they shouldn't count in the stats. Often from the same people who compare the treatment of the unvaccinated to Jews treatment by the Nazis.

 

I find it all a bit bizarre really 

 

I would go way back into this thread before committing to not including Jonesy in that group. 

Edited December 12, 2021 by Savage Vince

[Dennis Denuto]

1 minute ago, Savage Vince said:

 

I would go way back into this thread before committing to not including Jonesy on that group. 

I am not excluding him from the group and there are quite a few other members too.  I should have said not exclusively Jonsey

[Enzo Chiefo]

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

 

https://backup.ons.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Coronavirus-COVID-19-Infection-Survey-technical-article-waves-and-lags-of-COVID-19-in-England-June-2021.pdf

The time between COVID-19 infection and symptom onset varies between 1 and 14 days, with an average of 5 to 6 days.

The median delay (lag) between symptom onset and hospital admission varies between 1 and 6.7 days depending on age and whether the patient lives in a nursing home.
 

Time between symptom onset and death from COVID-19 ranges from 2 to 8 weeks, with reported median times of 16 or 19 days.

 

 

So someone can test positive, get symptoms over week later, end up in hospital 6 days later, and then die a couple of weeks after that. So a lag of around 2 weeks for hospital admissions after testing positive is well within the normal range, with 3 weeks not unheard of.

 

 

 

Yes, but I was referring to the cases that were confirmed. Median time from positive case to hospital admission is 3 - 10 days. I'm sure there are exceptions but the fact there are very few if any hospital admissions, due to Covid, is a good sign. Hospital numbers continue to fall.

[Enzo Chiefo]

48 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

A pre-recorded speech so he doesn't have to answer questions 

No additional restrictions expected thankfully.  Just an update on the booster programme 

[Savage Vince]

1 minute ago, Dennis Denuto said:

I am not excluding him from the group and there are quite a few other members too.  I should have said not exclusively Jonsey

 

Wise move. 

 

There's regular posters in this thread who think it's OK for people with weight issues to die in their 30s. 

[NANOJAMBO]

5 minutes ago, Savage Vince said:

 

The vaccination numbers are really poor but sadly not surprising. 

Agreed, too much harping on after the first raft about our "world beating" and not enough continued focus on it because it upsets the loony right in Clownshoes party. Such a wasted opportunity. 

[Savage Vince]

1 minute ago, NANOJAMBO said:

Agreed, too much harping on after the first raft about our "world beating" and not enough continued focus on it because it upsets the loony right in Clownshoes party. Such a wasted opportunity. 

 

Indeed. We're all paying the price for that now. 

[NANOJAMBO]

9 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

 

Better treatments further reducing length and severity of those hospitalised and GPS able to give treatment earlier to prevent potential hospitalizations. 

 

 

Can you clarify what you mean by this ? What treatment and in what way earlier ? 

[Savage Vince]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

What's wrong, Vinny? You got Macho Man Randy Savage stuck up yer urethra while having a wee Royal Rumble to yourself?

 

Yes, that's exactly what's going on. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

4 minutes ago, Savage Vince said:

 

Wise move. 

 

There's regular posters in this thread who think it's OK for people with weight issues to die in their 30s. 

No, of course it's not OK for obese people to die in their 30s. But neither is it OK for the vast majority of people in the country to lose their liberties to avoid that outcome.

[Savage Vince]

2 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

No, of course it's not OK for obese people to die in their 30s. But neither is it OK for the vast majority of people in the country to lose their liberties to avoid that outcome.

 

Here's one now. 

[NANOJAMBO]

8 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Go go Godwin! 😜 

 

Thanks for the caveat at the beginning. My point was more about the sensationalist media (especially broadcast) who will do anything to ramp up the fear

 

 

 

while being editorially careful about which factors they include.