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11 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Flu is quite predictable and much easier to prevent an epidemic.  It's transmissibility is low compared to omicron.  Somewhere under r0 value of 2.0.  It's effects are naturally limited and have become assimilated into the range of illnesses that can be dealt with on an ongoing basis.

 

Yeah folks,  still not comparable I'm afraid.

what is comparable is that it " overwhelms " the NHS every year.  That's a given. Buts there's never been a hint about any lockdowns or restrictions due to this. 

Edited by JamesM48
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Dennis Denuto
52 minutes ago, Alex Kintner said:

Is there anything to back up the claim that Omicron gives just a mild cold or the sniffles? I know there’s not been a single death attributed to it yet but haven’t hospitalisations in South Africa increased massively. 

The one thing that Jason Leitch said on off the ball that we need to take away was that we all want the fast spreading virus that only gives cold symptoms, but this isn’t the one. They don’t know how bad it is but it’s not just the sniffles one yet. 

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Howdy Doody Jambo
56 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Just been on the phone with one of my neices and we had arranged a good night out at a hotel next Saturday night. There are a few of us going. However we are know wondering if it will actually be cancelled or there will be hardly any people there due to all this malarkey.  Its a catch 22 situation now for business are people may still want to go out for Xmas nights out but think their chosen places might not be that busy due to cancellations. Her partner is off to  staff night doo the night. Its no stopping him. In fact we would still go but only if it is busy as the tickets are quite expensive but  i also feel rotten if we cancel and the hotel has lost more revenue. 

Well you might as well go out and enjoy yourself the telly is pish Ant and Dec, no brainer really, your not one of those that only has an after eight mint at 20:05 hrs are you 

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16 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Yes, but the vast majority of those deaths are from pneumonia. The original statement about the extent of flu deaths was incorrect.

 

Would they have died from pneumonia without flu though. For flu to have been on the death certificate it must have been a contributing factor...yadadadadadada.

 

 

Only joking Red, it looks like it's been a chaotic couple of days on here and feel like I've missed out.

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1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

what is comparable is that it " overwhelms " the NHS every year.  That's a given. Buts there's never been a hint about any lockdowns or restrictions due to this. 

 

No it doesn't.  :rofl:  Stop making things up James.  

 

The scale of flu never overwhelms the NHS.  Something of markedly greater scale might.

 

We better hope those 20m to 35m infections yield a low volume of hospitalisations.  Enzo glibly suggested it's a matter for governments to provide capacity.  Barry.  A tacit demand for someone else to deal with it and everyone else to ignore.  Barry.  Anyone minded this way will presumably have no complaints if they end up in hospital and wondering where all the doctors and nurses are.

 

Whatever happens will happen.  Lockdowns aren't going to change anything.  It will pass quicker without a lockdown.  

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4 minutes ago, The Maroon Pound said:

Well you might as well go out and enjoy yourself the telly is pish Ant and Dec, no brainer really, your not one of those that only has an after eight mint at 20:05 hrs are you 

Oh we are certainly heading out . That's not in question. NO im a late bird. 

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39 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Yeah.  Flu can be nasty and that's despite many,  many years of the building up of innate population immunity memory.  Flu is very stable as well.  When it mutates it does so slowly and with very limited changes.  

Yet the vaccine this year had an element of 4 different strains that may or, equally likely, may not materialise. There has been a very low incidence of flu so far this winter. 

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6 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

No it doesn't.  :rofl:  Stop making things up James.  

 

The scale of flu never overwhelms the NHS.  Something of markedly greater scale might.

 

We better hope those 20m to 35m infections yield a low volume of hospitalisations.  Enzo glibly suggested it's a matter for governments to provide capacity.  Barry.  A tacit demand for someone else to deal with it and everyone else to ignore.  Barry.  Anyone minded this way will presumably have no complaints if they end up in hospital and wondering where all the doctors and nurses are.

 

Whatever happens will happen.  Lockdowns aren't going to change anything.  It will pass quicker without a lockdown.  

 

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12 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

The one thing that Jason Leitch said on off the ball that we need to take away was that we all want the fast spreading virus that only gives cold symptoms, but this isn’t the one. They don’t know how bad it is but it’s not just the sniffles one yet. 

 

Indeed.  Viruses don't achieve that kind of radical,  instant evolution of virulence and pathogenicity.  We've been treated to almost 2 years of toy town claims that it will magically switch from bad to good.  If only science was that kind.

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15 minutes ago, Dennis Denuto said:

The one thing that Jason Leitch said on off the ball that we need to take away was that we all want the fast spreading virus that only gives cold symptoms, but this isn’t the one. They don’t know how bad it is but it’s not just the sniffles one yet. 

So, despite various experts, around the world, analysing the data and, despite there being no hospitalisations of any cases in the UK, Jason Leitch can state this as fact?

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1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yet the vaccine this year had an element of 4 different strains that may or, equally likely, may not materialise. There has been a very low incidence of flu so far this winter. 

 

Each distinctly new variant that comes along only ever tends to show 1 or 2 mutations.  It's much more stable than the 'plastic' nature of coronavirus.

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joondalupjambo

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

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4 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

 

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I though we paid no heed to sensationalist media vultures James?

 

;)

 

Edited by Victorian
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10 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

No it doesn't.  :rofl:  Stop making things up James.  

 

The scale of flu never overwhelms the NHS.  Something of markedly greater scale might.

 

We better hope those 20m to 35m infections yield a low volume of hospitalisations.  Enzo glibly suggested it's a matter for governments to provide capacity.  Barry.  A tacit demand for someone else to deal with it and everyone else to ignore.  Barry.  Anyone minded this way will presumably have no complaints if they end up in hospital and wondering where all the doctors and nurses are.

 

Whatever happens will happen.  Lockdowns aren't going to change anything.  It will pass quicker without a lockdown.  

I think me know for a fact that there will NOT be 25 or 35million cases in the UK just as we knew that the original virus would infect 80% of the population or that, contrary to wee Jean Jeanie Freeman's claim that hospitals would be overwhelmed and 25% of the Scottish working population would be off sick.

Is anybody still listening to the modelling? 

Fresh from the ludicrous predictions of 1200 - 25k daily cases in Scotland,  I'll go for 0 - 6million cases as my best estimate. 

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Just now, Enzo Chiefo said:

I think me know for a fact that there will NOT be 25 or 35million cases in the UK just as we knew that the original virus would infect 80% of the population or that, contrary to wee Jean Jeanie Freeman's claim that hospitals would be overwhelmed and 25% of the Scottish working population would be off sick.

Is anybody still listening to the modelling? 

Fresh from the ludicrous predictions of 1200 - 25k daily cases in Scotland,  I'll go for 0 - 6million cases as my best estimate. 

* would not infect 80%

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6 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

Go ahead and enjoy it! 2 doses still highly effective at preventing serious symptoms.

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1 minute ago, jonesy said:

Leech also told us that face masks make no difference and also not to cancel Xmas parties, so I don't see why we shouldn't listen to him.

Yes, true. I wonder if he's packed his wife off to another Stereophonics gig yet?

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8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I though we paid no heed to sensationalist media vultures James?

 

;)

 

Well you cant have it both ways ? Either these headlines are accurate and that also means the headlines re covid and hospitals are too then.  

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11 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

GO and i hope you have a great time. 

R (1).gif

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Nucky Thompson
8 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

This happens every day in local boozers.

I went to Sportsmans bar in Musselburgh after the racing on Monday. Everyone was packed in like sardines and not a mask in sight.

All the auld locals were reeking, singing at the top of their voices and staggering about the boozer cuddling people.

I wouldn't be cancelling anything

 

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1 minute ago, JamesM48 said:

Well you cant have it both ways ? Either these headlines are accurate and that also means the headlines re covid and hospitals are too then.  

 

It's you trying to have it both ways James.  You rant and rave about doom mongering media and then use sensational newspaper headlines to try to make a point.

 

Hilarious.  You're quite a card James.

 

I'm already quite aware that media headlines are best not taken at face value.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

I think me know for a fact that there will NOT be 25 or 35million cases in the UK just as we knew that the original virus would infect 80% of the population or that, contrary to wee Jean Jeanie Freeman's claim that hospitals would be overwhelmed and 25% of the Scottish working population would be off sick.

Is anybody still listening to the modelling? 

Fresh from the ludicrous predictions of 1200 - 25k daily cases in Scotland,  I'll go for 0 - 6million cases as my best estimate. 

 

We'll see them starting quickly.  We'll quickly see if the 20m to 35m prediction falls short.  The figures will show either way.

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Nucky Thompson
14 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I though we paid no heed to sensationalist media vultures James?

 

;)

 

The moral of the story is that the media have been reporting that the NHS will become overwhelmed every Winter for years now.

 

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1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The moral of the story is that the media have been reporting that the NHS will become overwhelmed every Winter for years now.

 

yes thats right 

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1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

The moral of the story is that the media have been reporting that the NHS will become overwhelmed every Winter for years now.

 

 

So?  I'm not interested in the media.  I made no point about the media.  What I said is that the NHS is not overwhelmed by flu.  I didn't mention the media.

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Nucky Thompson

4,087 positive cases out of 44,390 tests in Scotland today. 9.9%

12 deaths. 552 in hospital with 33 in ICU.

I don't keep up with the stats every day, but the people in hospital seem to be a good bit lower than a few weeks ago

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2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

So?  I'm not interested in the media.  I made no point about the media.  What I said is that the NHS is not overwhelmed by flu.  I didn't mention the media.

And it's never been overwhelmed by Covid either, despite the numerous predictions to the contrary,  over the last 2 years.

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Just now, Nucky Thompson said:

4,087 positive cases out of 44,390 tests in Scotland today. 9.9%

12 deaths. 552 in hospital with 33 in ICU.

I don't keep up with the stats every day, but the people in hospital seem to be a good bit lower than a few weeks ago

 

They are.  Via Delta figures.  Omicron hasn't taken off yet.  If these figures persist throughout omicron then yaaay.  We'll all go and hunt down the modellers.

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2 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

4,087 positive cases out of 44,390 tests in Scotland today. 9.9%

12 deaths. 552 in hospital with 33 in ICU.

I don't keep up with the stats every day, but the people in hospital seem to be a good bit lower than a few weeks ago

Yes, appear to be dropping daily NT. There were 200+ in ICU in the first wave so we"re at a fraction of that level.

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1 minute ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

And it's never been overwhelmed by Covid either, despite the numerous predictions to the contrary,  over the last 2 years.

 

Agreed.  It coped.

 

But will it continue to do so with predicted numbers?  Nobody knows yet.

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Just now, Victorian said:

 

Agreed.  It coped.

 

But will it continue to do so with predicted numbers?  Nobody knows yet.

Agreed. Time will tell.

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Dennis Denuto
8 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes, appear to be dropping daily NT. There were 200+ in ICU in the first wave so we"re at a fraction of that level.

That’s why restrictions aren’t being introduced yet but we are being warned. 

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joondalupjambo
21 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

This happens every day in local boozers.

I went to Sportsmans bar in Musselburgh after the racing on Monday. Everyone was packed in like sardines and not a mask in sight.

All the auld locals were reeking, singing at the top of their voices and staggering about the boozer cuddling people.

I wouldn't be cancelling anything

 

Funnily enough I was at Musselburgh as well and very few masks in the Pinkie Bar.  Did you get Elexier or whatever it was called, I took 10's and won at 12's.  Anyway I digress.  Issue of course is should these folk have known better I guess. 

 

Ok one vote for carry on as normal.

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joondalupjambo
31 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Go ahead and enjoy it! 2 doses still highly effective at preventing serious symptoms.

Two for going.

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40 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

 

Let everyone decide themselves if they want to go and if >12 cancel then can the event imo.

Edited by Taffin
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joondalupjambo
27 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

GO and i hope you have a great time. 

R (1).gif

Three for going.  

 

Interesting.  Probably should have also added that I have a 92 year old mother who refused to take anymore jabs after her first😄

 

Does that make a difference?

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
22 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

So?  I'm not interested in the media.  I made no point about the media.  What I said is that the NHS is not overwhelmed by flu.  I didn't mention the media.

 

like covid (to an extent) the with or from debate applies to flu and phrases used interchangeably even by experts

 

to use the wider definition when talking about mortality - “excess winter deaths” of which there can be 50k in the bad years (can be influenced by poor response to that years flu vaccine)

 

do you accept that the nhs has in the past been overwhelmed by winter ailments which for  example can lead to what are defined as winter deaths ?

 

 

whatever overwhelmed actually means in respect of the nhs

 

Edited by MoncurMacdonaldMercer
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joondalupjambo
2 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Let everyone decide themselves if they want to go and if >12 cancel then can the event imo.

Yeah I think a few will pull out but no idea how many.  It might be the club pull the pin.

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Nucky Thompson
2 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Funnily enough I was at Musselburgh as well and very few masks in the Pinkie Bar.  Did you get Elexier or whatever it was called, I took 10's and won at 12's.  Anyway I digress.  Issue of course is should these folk have known better I guess. 

 

Ok one vote for carry on as normal.

No, I jumped off that one. Got 2 winners on the day, paid for my day out.

 

I was in the Pinkie bar for the last 2 races. Too cold to stand outside at the trackside 

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joondalupjambo
1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

No, I jumped off that one. Got 2 winners on the day, paid for my day out.

 

I was in the Pinkie bar for the last 2 races. Too cold to stand outside at the trackside 

I got the first four, races one and two easy due to odds and then baled with my loot😄

If I had stayed the Tote would have got it all back😄

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49 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

 

I personally wouldn't go, but if I were to take a less conservative position then I would be more confident If everyone were to take a lateral flow test beforehand.

 

Purely as related information, not as scare-mongering, one of the groups my mum belongs to had a similar meeting a month ago, which my mum couldn't attend due to other commitments. One of the attendees, in her 50s, caught Covid as a result and died a week ago. There was no stipulation at the get-together for LFTs to be taken beforehand, but in my opinion there should have been. It's not 100% as the test isn't entirely accurate, the test has to be done correctly, and you have to take it on trust that everyone who says that they have taken the test have in fact done so, but it should lower the probability of Covid infection as a result.

Edited by redjambo
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Malinga the Swinga
21 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Funnily enough I was at Musselburgh as well and very few masks in the Pinkie Bar.  Did you get Elexier or whatever it was called, I took 10's and won at 12's.  Anyway I digress.  Issue of course is should these folk have known better I guess. 

 

Ok one vote for carry on as normal.

I was there as well. Didn't get Elexier but came home with more cash than I went out with, including stop at Scotties on way home. Only 2nd booze session this year.

Had mask on though.

I vote carry on.

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1 hour ago, jonesy said:

We've been letting the bodies pile up for decades on that one. Not sexy enough to warrant restrictions and masks.

 

There are heaps of treatments and vaccines for flu resulting from lengthy and expensive research. 

 

But don't let facts stop you being groovy. 

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1 hour ago, joondalupjambo said:

18 people, all 65 plus going for a golf club lunch in a dining room with little ventilation and potentially numerous other wandering around the club house and bar area.  All attendees double jabbed but not all had boosters.  Booked for Thursday 16th.

 

Go ahead or cancel?

 

I value the JKB professional view point.

 

If I was you I'd go. 

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42 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Agreed.  It coped.

 

But will it continue to do so with predicted numbers?  Nobody knows yet.

 

At great expense to routine procedures though. Try getting cataracts done.

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Nucky Thompson

Another 11 omicron cases detected today in Scotland.

It will probably be reported as a 1000% daily increase for maximum impact

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41 minutes ago, joondalupjambo said:

Three for going.  

 

Interesting.  Probably should have also added that I have a 92 year old mother who refused to take anymore jabs after her first😄

 

Does that make a difference?

Ask your mums view ?  If she is happy to see you after attending this event then that's fine.  Shes making an informed choice.  You have to balance living a life or sitting indoors. 

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3 hours ago, Victorian said:

 

And hopefully will be again.  It looks like we're going to be forced into a shit-or-bust real world trial of how it's going to play out.  The consequences will be what they will be.

 

After it's over,  I strongly suggest that nobody has any complaints about the consequences of hospital and care home acquired infections.  If it's let it rip time then there's nothing the governments can do to keep it out of those settings.

Glad it won’t be me deciding who gets the ventilator.

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