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Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )


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Mac_fae_Gillie
3 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Do u think we'll become like Japan, post virus. Bowing instead of handshakes, no passing cash from person to person. Thou I think cash might be a goner. And facemasks might be a common sight too.

no to bowing just a "alright"

I hate contactless as huge security risk, the only card with it on I generally leave at home but right now its my prime use for purchases perfect for the time. But after this ends I will still use cash (or card on larger items) rather than risk the contactless.

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18 minutes ago, Mac_fae_Gillie said:

no to bowing just a "alright"

I hate contactless as huge security risk, the only card with it on I generally leave at home but right now its my prime use for purchases perfect for the time. But after this ends I will still use cash (or card on larger items) rather than risk the contactless.

I don't expect Japanese style bowing, just a nod of the head. 

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The Internet

Do think handshakes are now definitely a thing of the past. Stuff is just generally going to be kept cleaner from now on I think. Hopefully it at least inspires people to be less clarty, the amount of folk you see walking out of toilets without washing hands is ridiculous. 

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Just now, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Do think handshakes are now definitely a thing of the past. Stuff is just generally going to be kept cleaner from now on I think. Hopefully it at least inspires people to be less clarty, the amount of folk you see walking out of toilets without washing hands is ridiculous. 


Last game at Tynecastle there was a notable difference in the amount of people washing their hands. The toilets weren’t noticeably busier so what did all these people who now found themselves at the sinks usually do?

 

Dirty swines.

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4 hours ago, ri Alban said:

This. It feels like I've something stuck in my throat, but it's not a cough I have, it's a clearing of the throat.  And

yesterday when I was out with the dog, I couldn't be fecked walking back home.

 

I had just recovered from flu before this kicked off.

 

I've been similar for a couple weeks now. Have felt like I've got something in my throat and I need to cough but I haven't been having actual coughing fits.  Just feels like something irritating my throat.  Have also had a big temperature but it comes and goes and never reaches fever level and I've generally just felt tired.

 

I don't trigger any of the isolate symptoms but I do feel like I've caught something.

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Toxteth O'Grady

UK lockdown 'could last until June'

Tough measures to tackle the outbreak in the UK have been in force for nearly a week - but a leading government adviser has warned they may need to remain in place until June.

Imperial College London Professor Neil Ferguson told the Sunday Times: “We’re going to have to keep these measures (the full lockdown) in place, in my view, for a significant period of time – probably until the end of May, maybe even early June.”

He added that even if the lockdown was lifted, people would probably still need to abide by social distancing measures for months to come.

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2 hours ago, Homme said:

I can see it now. Boris Johnson personally licks every envelope he sends out and wipes out the UK. 

Selective posting , only Tories who voted for them in the last election left in the UK. Rename us to Toriestan the United Kingdom of Great British Conservatives....

 

On a less positive note and for anyone who still thinks this is fun n games if you are fit and healthy

 

 

 

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I have no scientific evidence to back this up at all but I’ve always been under the impression that people and in particular children have worse immune systems if things are always disinfected. If we continue down the route we are at the moment then we’d surely end up with worse immune systems overall even though in the current situation we find ourselves in, it’s necessary. 
 

Once this is over I hope we can go back to handshakes etc. 

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26 minutes ago, King prawn said:

I have no scientific evidence to back this up at all but I’ve always been under the impression that people and in particular children have worse immune systems if things are always disinfected. If we continue down the route we are at the moment then we’d surely end up with worse immune systems overall even though in the current situation we find ourselves in, it’s necessary. 
 

Once this is over I hope we can go back to handshakes etc. 


Does that not go back to the idea of as a kid you got your cuts and bumps and bugs and by doing that it made your immune system better in parents opinions. You know “ahhh its only a bone sticking through your leg , heres a plaster you’ll be fine , away out and play again”

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10 hours ago, Tazio said:

My gut instinct is that something will happen but certainly not the fringe as we know it and not regulated by the fringe society. But nobody has a clue in reality so caution will lead to the cancellation and thats probably the right call. It’s in the top few events in the world in terms of attendance and you simply can’t put that many people in the same small area at the same time for a month. 

Another thing. The company who build the grand stands for the tattoo, Interserve, do the stands over a 22 week period and the groundwork has to start in May, have already been advised the work is non essential if the lockdown is still on and it’s highly unlikely even with a late start and round the clock working that they can bring the time time down by much more than 3 weeks. Apparently the tattoo are looking to see if it’s feasible to put it back to December and running it alongside the Christmas events,

Edited by JimmyCant
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10 hours ago, jumpship said:

If it will allow someone competent run the country while he handwrites 30m letters like the one to that wee girl who cancelled her birthday then I'm all for it...

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Harry Potter
5 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Do u think we'll become like Japan, post virus. Bowing instead of handshakes, no passing cash from person to person. Thou I think cash might be a goner. And facemasks might be a common sight too.

Never bowing to you, :lol:.

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25 minutes ago, sadj said:


Does that not go back to the idea of as a kid you got your cuts and bumps and bugs and by doing that it made your immune system better in parents opinions. You know “ahhh its only a bone sticking through your leg , heres a plaster you’ll be fine , away out and play again”

Certainly the cleanliness of the modern world is one thing that gets pointed at for all the food allergies - along with industrial processes like the Chorleywood Process...

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According to Sky news, Italy took 12 days to go from 1000 to 6000 deaths. Spain has done that in 9 days, and only has 3/4 of the population. Spain were quite slow in going into lockdown and are paying for it now.

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16 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

A lockdown to June doesn’t sound all that appealing. I get it may need to be done, but it will be challenging on a number of levels. If people think adherence is poor just now, another few month and I expect adherence will get much worse as people start to climbing the walls. Particularly if the peak is at Easter.

 

Also how does the government get more stringent with the lockdown? Realistically how much more stringent can we get? Movement has been restricted to all, all but essential staff are locked down.

 

They could maybe prevent a few more people working  by reducing their categorisation around essential workers. They could maybe prevent us going out for exercise? Though I’m struggling to understand how the measures can get much more draconian.

 

 

 

I think you hit on it.     The government does have to extend it well beyond the review time of 2 weeks time and it probably will need to be to around the time talked about.    I really can't see any way around that.    Allowing people some kind of idea of relaxation of the measures absolutely will result in widespread movement.    We've already seen what the public's notion of voluntary social distancing is.

 

Regarding clearer messaging for working,   yes there should be much clearer rules and people need the space to be able to choose the extent of their own adherence to 'the lockdown'.     People are already finding the situation difficult to handle.    People should not face the additional worry of being 'over-compelled' to do anything that increases their daily exposure to risk.    It would help people a lot to have the space to minimise their risk,   contribute to social distancing and to prepare themselves to return to work when it is sensible to do so.

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24 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

A lockdown to June doesn’t sound all that appealing. I get it may need to be done, but it will be challenging on a number of levels. If people think adherence is poor just now, another few month and I expect adherence will get much worse as people start to climbing the walls. Particularly if the peak is at Easter.

 

Also how does the government get more stringent with the lockdown? Realistically how much more stringent can we get? Movement has been restricted to all, all but essential staff are locked down.

 

They could maybe prevent a few more people working  by reducing their categorisation around essential workers. They could maybe prevent us going out for exercise? Though I’m struggling to understand how the measures can get much more draconian.

 

 


I think the issue is people ignoring it and taking the piss. If people adhered to whats in place there would be no need for considering more stringent rules. So its not how do we restrict further its more how do we enforce whats in place. For instance as I mentioned earlier in the thread my neighbour is 21 and cant be assed staying in so goes out every wee while has loads of people at his and pops out for weed when he needs it. Ahhh but its ok , as im not seeing my gran is his attitude. Live in a smallish town even in neighbours reported him to the police (they wont as they are scared of any repercussions coming back on them , hes had his window smashed and door smashed three times in 6months he has been here. 3 of the other 6 neighbours are 70+ and 3 are 50+) then you wouldn’t see them turning up in any haste and warnings fall on deaf ears with him.

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6 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

According to Sky news, Italy took 12 days to go from 1000 to 6000 deaths. Spain has done that in 9 days, and only has 3/4 of the population. Spain were quite slow in going into lockdown and are paying for it now.

Weren't we even slower?

 

 

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5 hours ago, ri Alban said:

Do u think we'll become like Japan, post virus. Bowing instead of handshakes, no passing cash from person to person. Thou I think cash might be a goner. And facemasks might be a common sight too.

 

Nope. One of the endearing traits of we humans is that after huge calamity, whether personal or shared, we usually get back to living pretty much just as we did before.

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Whenever there is a relaxation to the current measures,   whether that be in a few weeks or by June / July,    there will be a monumental period of mass activity.    People freed up to return to what they were doing and all setting about taking advantage of their freedom to participate in a wide range of activities... all at once.    Without some type of well strategised staging,   the sheer volume of mass freedom could cause a bit of second wave of transmission,   just when the NHS needs a continued downward trajectory of demand.

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4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Whenever there is a relaxation to the current measures,   whether that be in a few weeks or by June / July,    there will be a monumental period of mass activity.    People freed up to return to what they were doing and all setting about taking advantage of their freedom to participate in a wide range of activities... all at once.    Without some type of well strategised staging,   the sheer volume of mass freedom could cause a bit of second wave of transmission,   just when the NHS needs a continued downward trajectory of demand.

 

Need to be mentally prepared for multiple periods of lockdown over the next couple of years. As you say, once restrictions are lifted another wave of infections will hit and lockdown will commence again. Repeat until it's properly manageable.

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1 hour ago, JimmyCant said:

Another thing. The company who build the grand stands for the tattoo, Interserve, do the stands over a 22 week period and the groundwork has to start in May, have already been advised the work is non essential if the lockdown is still on and it’s highly unlikely even with a late start and round the clock working that they can bring the time time down by much more than 3 weeks. Apparently the tattoo are looking to see if it’s feasible to put it back to December and running it alongside the Christmas events,

 

If we don't have a vaccine then the Christmas events like the market will be off as well - can't have large gatherings of people.

 

International travel will be pretty much a gonner with anyone entering a country having to go through a couple of weeks quarantine each way, making a 2 week break take 6 weeks.

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9 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Need to be mentally prepared for multiple periods of lockdown over the next couple of years. As you say, once restrictions are lifted another wave of infections will hit and lockdown will commence again. Repeat until it's properly manageable.

 

All dependant on whether immunity after infection is true (still a lot to determine) and mass testing to see how much of the population fall into that category.

 

Throw in advancements in drugs to treat the most critical and it all might become manageable. Then vaccinations afterwards if we get there.

 

That's what I'm hoping for. But my worry is this becomes a money making exercise for some corporations (such as drug patents and pushing cost up hugely) and the ability to get rid of this will be hindered by greed.

 

Edited by kila
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9 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

Need to be mentally prepared for multiple periods of lockdown over the next couple of years. As you say, once restrictions are lifted another wave of infections will hit and lockdown will commence again. Repeat until it's properly manageable.

 

We need to move to eradication, which I would think means increased testing and quarantine for international travellers for the forseeable future until there are no cases worldwide.

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4 minutes ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

 

Need to be mentally prepared for multiple periods of lockdown over the next couple of years. As you say, once restrictions are lifted another wave of infections will hit and lockdown will commence again. Repeat until it's properly manageable.

 

That may very well be true but even that appears to present a difficulty with the messaging.     On and off lockdowns may very well give the impression that the lockdowns aren't important enough to adhere to.     

 

Trying to deal with the medical emergency / aftermath in conjunction with the economy is the reality.     We can't expect to go into a deep lockdown for 6-9 months and for all of our incomes to be guaranteed.    The economic and societal carnage would be catastrophic.     The programme of periodic controls probably will be the reality but it seems to concede that the medical emergency will be allowed to become a long term crisis,   rather than a short term war being waged and won.

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11 hours ago, jambostuart said:

 

I work as a freelance tech and I can state almost every performing company have told me they have pulled out for a variety of reasons surrounding Corona virus. I'm not sure insurance for venues/performers etc work as like I say I am freelance but I imagine that may be a big issue too. Even if the Fringe goes ahead there will be nowhere near the scale of performances as recent times. 

 

I'm devastated as I've been working the Fringe as a tech since I was 17 and it's the happiest month of my life

 

Maybe put in measures to make up. Add extra weeks next year or something though realise that might not add up to help everyone. 

Edited by Mikey1874
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6 minutes ago, kila said:

 

All dependant on whether immunity after infection is true (still a lot to determine) and mass testing to see how much of the population fall into that category.

 

Throw in advancements in drugs to treat the most critical and it all might become manageable. Then vaccinations afterwards if we get there.

 

That's what I'm hoping for. But my worry is this becomes a money making exercise for some corporations (such as drug patents and pushing cost up hugely) and the ability to get rid of this will be hindered by greed.

 

 

Yes.   Even now,   it isn't known how long any immunity remains.    It isn't known if it will become seasonal.    Two strains have been theorised and it isn't known if immunity to one provides immunity to the other (assuming theory is accurate).    It isn't known how long it might be transmissible by recovered / asymptomatic cases.    

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Footballfirst
40 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

According to Sky news, Italy took 12 days to go from 1000 to 6000 deaths. Spain has done that in 9 days, and only has 3/4 of the population. Spain were quite slow in going into lockdown and are paying for it now.

There's a glimmer of hope with the number of new cases in both those countries looking as if they may have peaked.

 

Italy has remained below their peak day for the last 7 days. Spain has fallen in each of the last 3 days from its peak.  

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1 minute ago, Footballfirst said:

There's a glimmer of hope with the number of new cases in both those countries looking as if they may have peaked.

 

Italy has remained below their peak day for the last 7 days. Spain has fallen in each of the last 3 days from its peak.  

 

Is there an argument for the idea that the "peak" is more of a plateau?

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49 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

According to Sky news, Italy took 12 days to go from 1000 to 6000 deaths. Spain has done that in 9 days, and only has 3/4 of the population. Spain were quite slow in going into lockdown and are paying for it now.

The majority of our cases are in Madrid. A capital city compared to the outbreak in largely rural areas in the north of Italy. 
 

We were slow going into lockdown though there’s no denying that. 

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I've been talking about plateau rather than peak for a while.    I think it could result out of regional / hotspot based landscapes.      We'll see soon enough in Italy.    

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Footballfirst
5 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Is there an argument for the idea that the "peak" is more of a plateau?

That's what you would expect. You start off slowly, then accelerate upwards, next you continue upwards at a slower rate, then flatten out, before starting to drop slowly, drop a bit quicker, then slower again before leveling out at the bottom.

Edited by Footballfirst
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This series of stats is worrying but, from a statistician's point of view very significant:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

 

Have a look at the daily increase in the number of total deaths. Extremely consistent at 13-14% since 21 March, between 10-14% since 15 March. I was surprised to see such consistency.

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Dutch recall 600,000 defective masks from China

Officials in the Netherlands have recalled hundreds of thousands of protective masks, which were imported from China and distributed to hospitals, because they don't meet quality standards.

The Dutch Health Ministry told AFP news agency that 1.3 million masks were delivered on 21 March. About 600,000 of the masks had already been distributed to healthcare workers.

"The rest of the shipment was immediately put on hold and has not been distributed," the ministry said in a statement.

The problem was either that the masks didn't close over the face properly, or were fitted with defective filters.

 

from bbc

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12 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Is there an argument for the idea that the "peak" is more of a plateau?


Is there nit something about they feel its at least in control if it fails to double every three days? 

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Just now, milky_26 said:

Dutch recall 600,000 defective masks from China

Officials in the Netherlands have recalled hundreds of thousands of protective masks, which were imported from China and distributed to hospitals, because they don't meet quality standards.

The Dutch Health Ministry told AFP news agency that 1.3 million masks were delivered on 21 March. About 600,000 of the masks had already been distributed to healthcare workers.

"The rest of the shipment was immediately put on hold and has not been distributed," the ministry said in a statement.

The problem was either that the masks didn't close over the face properly, or were fitted with defective filters.

 

from bbc


Thats ridiculous , again sounds like an ebay case

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shaun.lawson
39 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Weren't we even slower?

 

 

 

Yes. And we'll pay for it too.

 

The measures we have taken aren't tough enough. They're a substantial improvement on the nonsense of beforehand - but they're still not enough as it is.

 

The Prime Minister caught the virus. And he caught the virus because of lack of social distancing and general lack of taking it seriously. Which has gone on throughout Westminster. Why the **** was the House still sitting? Why the **** were the most important people in the UK right now - who have millions of lives in their hands - wheeled out for daily press conferences instead of these being virtual? It's beyond idiotic.

 

More broadly:

 

- Far too many people have been classified as 'essential workers', meaning far too many people are travelling to and from work every day on public transport which is still dangerously busy. I'm looking at the construction industry, in particular. Meanwhile, many employers demanding their employees come to work should be prosecuted... but there's no sign of it.

 

- NHS workers on the front line still don't have proper PPE; indefensibly late orders for ventilators won't deliver what is required for at least several weeks and probably longer.

 

- Testing isn't being performed to remotely the extent required. Extensive testing and contact tracing is why Germany's doing so well. But then, Germany funds its health service properly - and doesn't have a public which thinks clapping for a few minutes is some substitute for voting for it to be savaged for over a decade.

 

The UK needs to go further. Quite a lot further. When the Italians are issuing the guidelines I referred to earlier in the thread, they should be applied in Britain too. They're not being so. No way are we doing "everything we can" when we're not emulating those, which are as follows:

 

1. When you get home, try not to touch anything.

2. Take off your shoes.

3. Disinfect your pet's paws if they came with you. 

4. Take off your clothes and put them in a laundry bag. These should be washed at at least 60 degrees.

5. Leave your purse, wallet, keys etc, in a box at the entrance.

6. Take a shower and wash all exposed areas (hands, wrists, face, neck, etc) well.

7. Wash your phone and glasses with soap and water or alcohol.

8. Clean the surfaces of what you bought with washing up liquid before putting them away. Prepare it with 20ml per litre of water. Don't forget to wear gloves.

9. Carefully remove the gloves, throw them away and wash your hands.

10. Remember: it is not possible to disinfect everything. The objective is to reduce the risk.

 

 

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2 hours ago, King prawn said:

I have no scientific evidence to back this up at all but I’ve always been under the impression that people and in particular children have worse immune systems if things are always disinfected. If we continue down the route we are at the moment then we’d surely end up with worse immune systems overall even though in the current situation we find ourselves in, it’s necessary. 
 

Once this is over I hope we can go back to handshakes etc. 

 

It's a myth. Cleaning surfaces etc doesn't weaken immune systems it actually helps cut back on a lot of viruses.  Most (not all as you can get the flu and cold too, but they're also passed via other methods) of the germs you pick up from surfaces are gut germs.  And immunity to those doesn't last long at all.  Things like norovirus, food things such as salmonella etc etc. 

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4 minutes ago, sadj said:


Is there nit something about they feel its at least in control if it fails to double every three days? 

 

Yes. If deaths in a pandemic are doubling every 3 days or less, then the pandemic is considered to be in its runaway stage, as far as I am aware.

 

Edit: Check the "Days for Deaths to Double" section on https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/ for the Scottish situation.

Edited by redjambo
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45 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Weren't we even slower?

 

 

 

Yes, this graph predicts the UK peak will be lower than Spain but similar to Italy. 

EUMSt4zWAAMBeD4?format=jpg&name=small

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Footballfirst
2 minutes ago, King prawn said:

That’s a lot of negative results. 

Good. The more negatives the better.

Edited by Footballfirst
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1 minute ago, King prawn said:

That’s a lot of negative results. 

 

Testing has started to be done at GP practices of people not showing symptoms to assess general patterns. 

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A damning article published yesterday in esteemed medical journal The Lancet penned by the journals editor in chief himself Richard Horton.
 

Quote

“When this is all over, the NHS England board should resign in their entirety.” So wrote one National Health Service (NHS) health worker last weekend. The scale of anger and frustration is unprecedented, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the cause.


Government's Contain–Delay–Mitigate–Research strategy failed. It failed, in part, because ministers didn't follow WHO's advice to “test, test, test” every suspected case. They didn't isolate and quarantine. 


They didn't contact trace. These basic principles of public health and infectious disease control were ignored, for reasons that remain opaque. The UK now has a new plan—Suppress–Shield–Treat–Palliate. 


But this plan, agreed far too late in the course of the outbreak, has left the NHS wholly unprepared for the surge of severely and critically ill patients that will soon come. I asked NHS workers to contact me with their experiences. Their messages have been as distressing as they have been horrifying.


 “It's terrifying for staff at the moment. Still no access to personal protective equipment [PPE] or testing.” “Rigid command structures make decision making impossible.”


“There's been no guidelines, it's chaos.” “I don't feel safe. I don't feel protected.” “We are literally making it up as we go along.” “It feels as if we are actively harming patients.” 


 “We need protection and prevention.” “Total carnage.” “NHS Trusts continue to fail miserably.” “Humanitarian crisis.” “Forget lockdown—we are going into meltdown.”


“When I was country director in many conflict zones, we had better preparedness.” “The hospitals in London are overwhelmed.” “The public and media are not aware that today we no longer live in a city with a properly functioning western health-care system.”


“How will we protect our patients and staff…I am speechless. It is utterly unconscionable. How can we do this? It is criminal…NHS England was not prepared…We feel completely helpless.”


England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jenny Harries, said on March 20, 2020: “The country has a perfectly adequate supply of PPE.” She claimed that supply pressures had now been “completely resolved”.


 I am sure Dr Harries believed what she said. But she was wrong and she should apologise to the thousands of health workers who still have no access to WHO-standard PPE.

 

I receive examples daily of doctors having to assess patients with respiratory symptoms but who do so without the necessary PPE to complete their jobs safely.


Health workers are challenged if they ask for face masks. Even where there is PPE, there may be no training. WHO standards are not being met. Proper testing of masks is being omitted.


Stickers with new expiry dates are being put on PPE that expired in 2016. Doctors have been forced to go to hardware stores to buy their own face masks. Patients with suspected COVID-19 are mixing with non-COVID-19 patients.


The situation is so dire that staff are frequently breaking down in tears. As one physician wrote, “The utter failure of sound clinical leadership will lead to an absolute explosion of nosocomial COVID-19 infection.” Front-line staff are already contracting and dying from the disease.


The NHS has been wholly unprepared for this pandemic. It's impossible to understand why. Based on their modelling of the Wuhan outbreak of COVID-19, Joseph Wu and his colleagues wrote in The Lancet on Jan 31, 2020.


“On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic…for health protection within China and internationally…preparedness plans should be readied for deployment at short notice, including securing supply chains of pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies, and the necessary human resources to deal with the consequences of a global outbreak of this magnitude.”


This warning wasn't made lightly. It should have been read by the Chief Medical Officer, the Chief Executive Officer of the NHS in England, and the Chief Scientific Adviser. They had a duty to immediately put the NHS and British public on high alert.


February should have been used to expand coronavirus testing capacity, ensure the distribution of WHO-approved PPE, and establish training programmes and guidelines to protect NHS staff. They didn't take any of those actions. The result has been chaos and panic across the NHS.


Patients will die unnecessarily. NHS staff will die unnecessarily. It is, indeed, as one health worker wrote last week, “a national scandal”. The gravity of that scandal has yet to be understood. 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext?ref=drnweb.repubblica.scroll-2&fbclid=IwAR3QrP5NsJNO2mOANV8w1tCg7TgCpTMiQS17M9og_kNAeuWaOy8zchZgixM#

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  • davemclaren changed the title to Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )
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