Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Cade]

Please remember that Covid-19 deaths are ON TOP OF "normal" daily deaths.

 

[The Internet]

Seems like there's a var review going on to decide whether the healthy 21 year old who tragically died, actually died from this virus or not. 

 

 

[jambo89]

31 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

I don't know. Nor do I know how many of the Coronavirus victims would have died anyway from their underlying conditions. If not yesterday but very soon. My point was that the once in a decade or so of one-off eminently avoidable or deliberatelly created  disasters or outrages  have no relevance to what is going on now.

You don’t know? Sorry, I forgot about the coronavrius pandemic from a couple of years ago. 
 

Your right though, loads of the folk who have died were at deaths door and would’ve died anyway so it’s no biggie. 
 

Just to be clear, you are saying that one-off avoidable disasters have no comparison to this current situation which is, a one-off avoidable situation / disaster. 
 

Nae bother. 

[robbo1874]

 I keep thinking that we're going to miss the worst of it for some reason. I know it's unrealistic, head in the sand. Like I'd hoped Italy was over the worse. Brutal, leaves you desperately trying to find any wee bits of good news. 

The last few days I'd decided to just catch the news once a day. Give my head a rest from it.

 

 

[jake]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2400241673553707&id=693504594115135

 

This guy has decent stuff.

[KyleLafferty]

Whilst they report over deaths in Italy. Over 900 people have also recovered Italy. Choose what you read carefully.

[The Roller]

Struggling to see any light. This is going to try me mentally like I’ve never been tried before.

 

I know many more will be similar but I’m toiling with this. Keep trying to switch off but then you go for a walk or go to the supermarket and you’re quickly reminded again.

 

It’s all consuming. 

[DETTY29]

Channel 4 documentary just now.

 

Can't remember the percentage of people who catch flu die but it was zero (or multiple zeroes) point of one per cent.

 

This is 2% average and 5% of over 60s.

Edited March 27, 2020 by DETTY29

[Footballfirst]

The USA has now passed the 100k mark for the total number of cases, according to worldometers.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, The Roller said:

Struggling to see any light. This is going to try me mentally like I’ve never been tried before.

 

I know many more will be similar but I’m toiling with this. Keep trying to switch off but then you go for a walk or go to the supermarket and you’re quickly reminded again.

 

It’s all consuming. 

 

I agree.   It's difficult to conceptualise and to live with.    A troublesome mix of digesting news and information,   switching off to do normal stuff,   going out to the shops to be part of a dystopian view of society,   the unknown scale and timetable,   the concern about having to return to work and to ongoing risk,   financial concerns,   realisation that routine behaviours and practices are indefinitely on hold.

 

 

[GinRummy]

4 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

Channel 4 documentary just now.

 

Can't remember the percentage of people who catch flu die but it was zero point something of one per cent.

 

This is 2% average and 5% of over 60s.

I don’t believe those figures and once the antibody test comes out the true percentage will be known. One of the theories on why it spreads so quick is that many people display little to no symptoms and without testing would never know they had it.

 

Just my opinion based on theories being bandied about of course. 

[hughesie27]

8 minutes ago, KyleLafferty said:

Whilst they report over deaths in Italy. Over 900 people have also recovered Italy. Choose what you read carefully.

Recoveries should vastly outweigh deaths. By about 20 times as many.

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, GinRummy said:

I don’t believe those figures and once the antibody test comes out the true percentage will be known. One of the theories on why it spreads so quick is that many people display little to no symptoms and without testing would never know they had it.

 

Just my opinion based on theories being bandied about of course. 

 

Based on something,  the science theorised that the average onward infection was to 2.5 people.    Some now believe it's higher and the number only has to be very slightly higher for the likely scale of infection to be many, many times larger than the model.

 

 

[Boof]

Anybody on Facebook needing their fix of Scottish tunes could search for TunesInTheHoose

 

Started off by Peter Wood (a good Jambo) - an accordion instructor - when he wasn't able to go into school so he just fired up a video with a couple of tunes. It mushroomed from there and now, with the power of technology, they can have a 10-piece band comprised of players all over the world in their latest video.

 

 

[Footballfirst]

4 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

Recoveries should vastly outweigh deaths. By about 20 times as many.

The problem is that the recoveries for Covid sufferers who require ICU treatment is of the order of 11-16 days on a ventilator. There will therefore be quite a substantial time lag between new cases and recoveries.

 

Ventilator use for most illnesses is normally just 3-4 days.

 

That information came from the NY Mayor yesterday

Edited March 27, 2020 by Footballfirst

[DETTY29]

3 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

I don’t believe those figures and once the antibody test comes out the true percentage will be known. One of the theories on why it spreads so quick is that many people display little to no symptoms and without testing would never know they had it.

 

Just my opinion based on theories being bandied about of course. 

And that has merit.

 

I suppose how often folk phone in sick with the flu and come back a day or so later.

 

I've thought I have had the flu loads of times but went to work until the first time you get it and holy shit, so that's what the flu is.

 

Can you get mild flu or have it without knowing?  Doubt it.

[gjcc]

The numbers of serious/critical in some countries (USA, Italy, Spain, France) is fairly sobering. UK is still well behind  the curve in that respect, for now. 

[GinRummy]

8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Based on something,  the science theorised that the average onward infection was to 2.5 people.    Some now believe it's higher and the number only has to be very slightly higher for the likely scale of infection to be many, many times larger than the model.

 

 

I read the difference between passing it on at a rate of under 2 compared to over 3 persons and while I can’t recall the actual figures the difference was startling. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by GinRummy

[GinRummy]

3 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

And that has merit.

 

I suppose how often folk phone in sick with the flu and come back a day or so later.

 

I've thought I have had the flu loads of times but went to work until the first time you get it and holy shit, so that's what the flu is.

 

Can you get mild flu or have it without knowing?  Doubt it.

Some people certainly suffer from the same virus much worse than others. The without knowing it bit? I’m not sure but would imagine it varies from virus to virus. 

[MoncurMacdonaldMercer]

48 minutes ago, Cade said:

Please remember that Covid-19 deaths are ON TOP OF "normal" daily deaths.

 

 

not true

[vegas-voss]

1 minute ago, GinRummy said:

I read the difference between passing it on at a rate of under 2 compared to over 3 persons and while I can’t recall the actual figires the difference was startling. 

Was it not over 400.

 

Sure I seen a bit on the news about social distancing and how it cut the numbers down from infecting over 400 people to 12

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, vegas-voss said:

Was it not over 400.

 

Sure I seen a bit on the news about social distancing and how it cut the numbers down from infecting over 400 people to 12

Could be mate. I’m suffering from information overload just now. I’m reading loads, watching a lot on tv and some of it just doesn’t sink in.

[Victorian]

7 minutes ago, GinRummy said:

I read the difference between passing it on at a rate of under 2 compared to over 3 persons and while I can’t recall the actual figires the difference was startling. 

 

Yes.   The difference in scale at a rate of 2.5 multiplied over 10 onward transmissions and a rate of 3.0 over the same 10 would be huge.      9,500 / 59,000.    Over 30 it would be tens of millions.

[GinRummy]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

Yes.   The difference in scale at a rate of 2.5 multiplied over 10 onward transmissions and a rate of 3.0 over the same 10 would be huge.      9,500 / 59,000.    Over 30 it would be tens of millions.

Yes, that was it. Thanks. 

[KyleLafferty]

I reckon last weekend before the pubs shut will cause massive problems in the next 2 weeks. The spread would have been unreal then.

[Francis Albert]

34 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

You don’t know? Sorry, I forgot about the coronavrius pandemic from a couple of years ago. 
 

Your right though, loads of the folk who have died were at deaths door and would’ve died anyway so it’s no biggie. 
 

Just to be clear, you are saying that one-off avoidable disasters have no comparison to this current situation which is, a one-off avoidable situation / disaster. 
 

Nae bother. 

How is this disaster like Hillsborough? It has no meaningful  comparison with Hillsborough that I can think of.

 

[Victorian]

Of course if you don't test then you can't get any idea of what onward infection rates are with and without a range of different social distancing measures.    You're blind.    If you can test then you can keep your health workers at work or remove them from work.    

[Sirudi]

30 minutes ago, The Roller said:

Struggling to see any light. This is going to try me mentally like I’ve never been tried before.

 

I know many more will be similar but I’m toiling with this. Keep trying to switch off but then you go for a walk or go to the supermarket and you’re quickly reminded again.

 

It’s all consuming. 

Hang on in there fella.
I don’t think for a moment anybody can get there head around this. Just take it a day at a time.

 

Today for example I had the following opinions from people.

1. This virus is being blown out of all proportion and the whole thing is an overreaction.

2. It’s just flu, what’s the problem. Just let people catch it.

3. The virus was manufactured in China with the aim to dominate post virus industry and commerce.

4. Wur doomed !!

 

I don’t think any of these scenarios are true.

But I am pretty sure we will come out the other end.

 

 

[Selkirk_Jambo]

47 minutes ago, jake said:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2400241673553707&id=693504594115135

 

This guy has decent stuff.

 

A nice wee video and seems to sum up the reasons for the far lower German mortality rate pretty well. The early mass testing allowed them to both catch it early in patients and also trace the spread of the virus throughout Germany, facilitating better planning. It'll definitely get worse in Germany but it seems their proactive attitude has at least given them the breathing space they needed to prepare a little bit better than most.

 

As an aside, there has been a few mentions that Germany's low mortality rate is down to their classifying of the way their patients die differently - i.e., they are not including people who die with underlying conditions in the COVID-19 totals. I saw a report on German TV the other day quoting the Robert Koch Institut (who are Germany's leading epidemiology body) saying explicitly that they have been and will continue to count deaths with underlying conditions as part of the Coronavirus totals. Can't find a link currently but, if I find it, I'll post it. 

 

I've spent a lot of time in Italy and it's absolutely horrible seeing what's happening. Those numbers are awful. I don't think they've peaked yet either

Edited March 27, 2020 by Selkirk_Jambo

[jambo89]

5 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

How is this disaster like Hillsborough? It has no meaningful  comparison with Hillsborough that I can think of.

 

Ahhhh so this is a disaster. I could’ve sworn you intimated this pandemic wasn’t one.

 

I never said this was like Hillsborough. You’ve just made that up to suit your argument. 

 

Anyway, your constant “opposing” stance to the general consensus is boring me now. 
 

Enjoy your night and be safe.

[Walter Bishop]

55 minutes ago, The Roller said:

Struggling to see any light. This is going to try me mentally like I’ve never been tried before.

 

I know many more will be similar but I’m toiling with this. Keep trying to switch off but then you go for a walk or go to the supermarket and you’re quickly reminded again.

 

It’s all consuming. 

This is where i am/have been past few weeks. Have had bouts of depression down the years but this is really testing me like i have never been before. I don`t see an end at all, I have been stuck in the house in isolation (Day 6 of 14) which hasn't helped but i think id shit myself to go to shop or for a walk anyway. Im Worried sick about family getting ill, some of whom are on the frontline, Not sleeping or eating and addicted to looking at stuff on social media which helps in no way at all.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

26 minutes ago, jambo89 said:

Ahhhh so this is a disaster. I could’ve sworn you intimated this pandemic wasn’t one.

 

I never said this was like Hillsborough. You’ve just made that up to suit your argument. 

 

Anyway, your constant “opposing” stance to the general consensus is boring me now. 
 

Enjoy your night and be safe.

When did I intimate this wasn't a disaster? I am sorry if I wrongly attributed to you the comparison  with Hillsborough or Ibrox etc. It remains a ludicrous comparison.

PS just found your post I was replying to which seemed to argue against my claim that this was nothing like Hillsborough because this pandemic  was also one off and avoidable. I have refrained from embarrassing you by quoting that.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Francis Albert

[Dazo]

38 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

How is this disaster like Hillsborough? It has no meaningful  comparison with Hillsborough that I can think of.

 

It isn’t in any way shape or form and to compare it is utter ridiculous. 

[Boof]

1 hour ago, The Roller said:

Struggling to see any light. This is going to try me mentally like I’ve never been tried before.

 

I know many more will be similar but I’m toiling with this. Keep trying to switch off but then you go for a walk or go to the supermarket and you’re quickly reminded again.

 

It’s all consuming. 

 

3 minutes ago, Walter Bishop said:

This is where i am/have been past few weeks. Have had bouts of depression down the years but this is really testing me like i have never been before. I don`t see an end at all, I have been stuck in the house in isolation (Day 6 of 14) which hasn't helped but i think id shit myself to go to shop or for a walk anyway. Im Worried sick about family getting ill, some of whom are on the frontline, Not sleeping or eating and addicted to looking at stuff on social media which helps in no way at all.

 

 

 

Jeezo, lads - if it helps gie's a PM for a cyber chat. I'm not medically trained but have done a bit of counselling.

There's plenty of positive stuff on social media as well.

[Dawnrazor]

I heard that Prince Charles got the virus because he ate an old bat, can any one confirm this??!

[Unknown user]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

I heard that Prince Charles got the virus because he ate an old bat, can any one confirm this??!

I heard he'd been gnawing away at a grizzled old badger

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, Walter Bishop said:

This is where i am/have been past few weeks. Have had bouts of depression down the years but this is really testing me like i have never been before. I don`t see an end at all, I have been stuck in the house in isolation (Day 6 of 14) which hasn't helped but i think id shit myself to go to shop or for a walk anyway. Im Worried sick about family getting ill, some of whom are on the frontline, Not sleeping or eating and addicted to looking at stuff on social media which helps in no way at all.

 

 

 

It's very easy to get paranoid and obsessed.    I'm totally obsessed about everything when I go to the shops.    Really can't see me going back to work any time soon and really hoping the lockdown is strengthened and extended for a long time yet.     Probably have to jack in the work and try to get work much later on down the line.    

[Walter Bishop]

5 minutes ago, Boof said:

 

 

Jeezo, lads - if it helps gie's a PM for a cyber chat. I'm not medically trained but have done a bit of counselling.

There's plenty of positive stuff on social media as well.

Thanks, I`ll keep that in mind. 

[Shanks]

9 minutes ago, Walter Bishop said:

This is where i am/have been past few weeks. Have had bouts of depression down the years but this is really testing me like i have never been before. I don`t see an end at all, I have been stuck in the house in isolation (Day 6 of 14) which hasn't helped but i think id shit myself to go to shop or for a walk anyway. Im Worried sick about family getting ill, some of whom are on the frontline, Not sleeping or eating and addicted to looking at stuff on social media which helps in no way at all.

 

 

 

You are not the only one mate, me and my partner are both out working and I am constantly on edge.  Went to the supermarket today after work and felt like I was going to have a panic attack, it's really having a bad effect on my mental health.  It feels like one of those nightmares that you will eventually wake up from. 

[Taffin]

10 minutes ago, Longshanks said:

 

You are not the only one mate, me and my partner are both out working and I am constantly on edge.  Went to the supermarket today after work and felt like I was going to have a panic attack, it's really having a bad effect on my mental health.  It feels like one of those nightmares that you will eventually wake up from. 

 

I think a big part of the shopping experience depends on where/when you go. I arrived at Tesco for my first shop this week about 0930 this morning and there were folks in masks and a queue round the car park to get in. I circled the car park and went back home quite flustered and unsettled by it all (which I haven't been), it was very dystopian.

I went back at 1730 and walked straight in and everyone was smiling and observing distancing (1 dick aside who was stood in the middle of the aisle) and I left feeling much more uplifted having had a dose of relative normality.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Taffin

[Cade]

Bolsonaro at it again on Brazilian TV

"Death figures are being exaggerated by political opponents"

"Some people will die. I’m sorry. That’s life"
 

The public are turning against this madman bigtime.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Cade

[Bindy Badgy]

1 hour ago, GinRummy said:

I read the difference between passing it on at a rate of under 2 compared to over 3 persons and while I can’t recall the actual figures the difference was startling. 

 

If each person passes it onto 3 people by the time you hit the 10th level 59,000 people have been infected. If each person passes it onto 1.4 people (normal for the flu) by the 10th level 29 people have been infected.

 

It's really easy to do the arithmetic in Excel.

[GinRummy]

2 minutes ago, Stokesy said:

 

If each person passes it onto 3 people by the time you hit the 10th level 59,000 people have been infected. If each person passes it onto 1.4 people (normal for the flu) by the 10th level 29 people have been infected.

 

It's really easy to do the arithmetic in Excel.

Thanks. 

[annushorribilis III]

Just now, Stokesy said:

 

If each person passes it onto 3 people by the time you hit the 10th level 59,000 people have been infected. If each person passes it onto 1.4 people (normal for the flu) by the 10th level 29 people have been infected.

 

It's really easy to do the arithmetic in Excel.

I posted these details on this thread a few days ago. 

 

[GinRummy]

1 minute ago, annushorribilis III said:

I posted these details on this thread a few days ago. 

 

Yeah, it was me that was asking earlier tonight. Remembered it being remarkable but couldn’t remember the numbers. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by GinRummy

[annushorribilis III]

1 hour ago, Mauricio Pinilla said:

Seems like there's a var review going on to decide whether the healthy 21 year old who tragically died, actually died from this virus or not. 

 

 

Her death was very sad but as she had a natural cause of death, involvement by the coroner was not required and the hospital issued a death certificate.

“There was no postmortem examination or inquest. We must now respect the privacy of her family and cannot provide any further information.”

 

Looks pretty straightforward.

 

Insert other media

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by annushorribilis III

[GinRummy]

Some people need to take a day off from this. I don’t mean that in a condescending way as I’m doing it myself tomorrow. I’m going out with the dog in the morning and watching films and stand up comedians on telly all day. Keeping constantly looking at news feeds, reading opinions on here, watching news channels and speaking to friends and family about it is too much of a drain for me and obviously others. 

[AlimOzturk]

Dying doesn't bother me in the slightest. When your times up it is up. I feel for the guys above and their fears but as long as you follow the government guidelines you'll be fine and in the unlikely event you get Ill the numbers are heavily in your favour making a full recovery.

 

What does bother me is not being able to provide for my family and that is unfortunately what this ****ing virus is doing to myself and many hundreds of thousands. Never liked handouts and never will but unfortunately there is little choice. 

 

If this goes on for months I worry about mine and many thousands of others mental well-being. I am simply not use to being indoors and doing nothing. We are social animals and as much as I love my family, being around each other 24/7 is good for nobody. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by AlimOzturk

[Morgan]

49 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

I heard that Prince Charles got the virus because he ate an old bat, can any one confirm this??!

 

47 minutes ago, Smithee said:

I heard he'd been gnawing away at a grizzled old badger

FFS, you two!

 

Pretty good, like.   

[Blair835]

16 minutes ago, Morgan said:

 

FFS, you two!

 

Pretty good, like.   

I'd heard differently, I was told he was chewing on they bald beavers you can get