Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Jambo-Jimbo]

39 minutes ago, Gizmo said:

Christ, that old twat again, the ****ing aids denialist. No one should have any truck with this moron. 

The flu numbers are quite obviously down because of a combination of:

- viral interference
- lockdowns
- masks
- increased hygiene
- social distancing

Makes perfect sense, since the flu is less contagious than Covid-19. No doubt the "common sense" mob are going to claim the two viruses are interchangable, again. 🙄

 

And in no small part to a record uptake of the flu jab, which made a huge difference as well.

[Victorian]

C4 News saying that new epidemiological modelling is suggesting that India's true daily rate of new infections is likely to be about 5,000,000 per day.  More than 10 fold the official figures they said.  Runaway.  Past the event horizon.  Good luck to them.

[Tazio]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

C4 News saying that new epidemiological modelling is suggesting that India's true daily rate of new infections is likely to be about 5,000,000 per day.  More than 10 fold the official figures they said.  Runaway.  Past the event horizon.  Good luck to them.

I’m just amazed it’s taken this long to get a hold in a developing nation. The sheer size of some of the cities and the closeness of housing must be a fertile breeding ground. Also if it got a foothold in Africa cities like Lagos are the same. 

[CJGJ]

5 minutes ago, Victorian said:

C4 News saying that new epidemiological modelling is suggesting that India's true daily rate of new infections is likely to be about 5,000,000 per day.  More than 10 fold the official figures they said.  Runaway.  Past the event horizon.  Good luck to them.

Can Australia achieve herd immunity to coronavirus, and what happens if not? | Health | The Guardian

 

Herd immunity hard to reach as well even if it was proved to work

[redjambo]

19 minutes ago, Victorian said:

C4 News saying that new epidemiological modelling is suggesting that India's true daily rate of new infections is likely to be about 5,000,000 per day.  More than 10 fold the official figures they said.  Runaway.  Past the event horizon.  Good luck to them.

 

Perhaps ways of thinking such as the following didn't help in India:

 

[Victorian]

It's probably impossible to project their type of epidemiology into a western context,  what with all the various implications of population density,  infrastructure,  cultural behaviours and medical provision.  It might not necessarily indicate a more infectious virus variant but you have to wonder about the speed of the vicious deterioration.

 

It certainly shines a light on the moral argument of countries allowing themselves to create a population of such enormous scale but with their particular nature of high population density in major population centres and without even a fraction of the necessary infrastructure required to battle a health emergency.   Maybe the blame goes beyond that and on to the likes of the WHO,  the UN and the west for sitting by while about 20% of the world's population were corraled into a system where they've become sitting ducks.

[CJGJ]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

It's probably impossible to project their type of epidemiology into a western context,  what with all the various implications of population density,  infrastructure,  cultural behaviours and medical provision.  It might not necessarily indicate a more infectious virus variant but you have to wonder about the speed of the vicious deterioration.

 

It certainly shines a light on the moral argument of countries allowing themselves to create a population of such enormous scale but with their particular nature of high population density in major population centres and without even a fraction of the necessary infrastructure required to battle a health emergency.   Maybe the blame goes beyond that and on to the likes of the WHO,  the UN and the west for sitting by while about 20% of the world's population were corraled into a system where they've become sitting ducks.

Perhaps you could tell us how the population is meant to be stopped from growing ?

 

Is it your right to have more children just because of your location and local infrastructure ?

[Governor Tarkin]

8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

It's probably impossible to project their type of epidemiology into a western context,  what with all the various implications of population density,  infrastructure,  cultural behaviours and medical provision.  It might not necessarily indicate a more infectious virus variant but you have to wonder about the speed of the vicious deterioration.

 

It certainly shines a light on the moral argument of countries allowing themselves to create a population of such enormous scale but with their particular nature of high population density in major population centres and without even a fraction of the necessary infrastructure required to battle a health emergency.   Maybe the blame goes beyond that and on to the likes of the WHO,  the UN and the west for sitting by while about 20% of the world's population were corraled into a system where they've become sitting ducks.

 

India has a space program and nuclear weapons, Vic'. It doesn't have to be this way for them.

[redjambo]

6 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

India has a space program and nuclear weapons, Vic'. It doesn't have to be this way for them.

 

And, I hasten to add, temples dripping with gold. It was one of the things that got to me when I was there - the contrast of the poverty and the richness of the temples. Seeing very poor folk, often disabled, begging outside temples festooned with gold doesn't sit right with me.

[Gizmo]

21 minutes ago, Victorian said:

It's probably impossible to project their type of epidemiology into a western context,  what with all the various implications of population density,  infrastructure,  cultural behaviours and medical provision.  It might not necessarily indicate a more infectious virus variant but you have to wonder about the speed of the vicious deterioration.

 

It certainly shines a light on the moral argument of countries allowing themselves to create a population of such enormous scale but with their particular nature of high population density in major population centres and without even a fraction of the necessary infrastructure required to battle a health emergency.   Maybe the blame goes beyond that and on to the likes of the WHO,  the UN and the west for sitting by while about 20% of the world's population were corraled into a system where they've become sitting ducks.

It doesn't sit terribly well with me if we have the AZ vaccine produced in India only for it to be exported (though they put that on hold as cases rose). I know we have commited to the Covax scheme but the inequality makes me feel pretty self-entitled as well as fortunate. I hope we don't get ourselves out the shit and go back to business as usual not giving a crap about the rest of the world.

Accepting the arguments about where India chooses to spend its money but there will be some countries that are simply poor af that suffer similarly. 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Gizmo

[Governor Tarkin]

1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

And, I hasten to add, temples dripping with gold. It was one of the things that got to me when I was there - the contrast of the poverty and the richness of the temples. Seeing very poor folk, often disabled, begging outside temples festooned with gold doesn't sit right with me.

 

Nor me, red.

[Victorian]

15 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

Perhaps you could tell us how the population is meant to be stopped from growing ?

 

Is it your right to have more children just because of your location and local infrastructure ?

 

People have rights to choose to have children.  Nobody is denying that.  Does the state have the right to keep overseeing population growth that has hopelessly swamped the infrastructure and health/emergency provision that the state has provided for them?  I say no.  These people are sitting ducks and their leaders are badly negligent for failing to provide a coherent,  well provided infrastucture.  Maybe the blame goes wider.

[Governor Tarkin]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

People have rights to choose to have children.  Nobody is denying that.  Does the state have the right to keep overseeing population growth that has hopelessly swamped the infrastructure and health/emergency provision that the state has provided for them?  I say no.  These people are sitting ducks and their leaders are badly negligent for failing to provide a coherent,  well provided infrastucture.  Maybe the blame goes wider.

 

People have lots of kids as extended families are expected to look after each other when folk get old or fall on hard times. We sub-contract that obligation to care facilities and the state. Multi-generational households will also be helping the spread of covid to their most vulnerable. We've seen the same thing here in the UK. 

[Victorian]

8 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

People have lots of kids as extended families are expected to look after each other when folk get old or fall on hard times. We sub-contract that obligation to care facilities and the state. Multi-generational households will also be helping the spread of covid to their most vulnerable. We've seen the same thing here in the UK. 

 

But it has laid bare the fact that a huge part of the world's population has been left to a situation where there is no emergency health provision for them.  Their government has not provided anywhere near the necessary amount of emergency contingency.  It's not even a completely unforeseen thing.  A pandemic has been predicted for decades.  Somebody is culpable for creating a population / economy / standard of living dynamic that's probably going to result in the death of millions of that population.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Victorian

[Governor Tarkin]

2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

But it has laid bare the fact that a huge part of the world's population has been left to a situation where there is no emergency health provision for them.  Their government has not provided anywhere near the necessary amount of emergency contingency.  It's not even a completely unforeseen thing.  A pandemic has been predicted for decades.  Somebody is culpable for creating a population / economy / standard of living dynamic that's probably going to result in the death of millions of that population.

 

No one thing is culpable per-se. Societies built upon different cultural and economic practices and norms will evolve differently from top to bottom. You can look to apportion blame, but you'll be doing from a western viewpoint. It isn't the first pandemic to savage the sub-continent and it won't be the last. We can all agree that it's absolutely tragic, though, and as a global society should look to do more to prevent these things in the future. The trick will be managing the huge social, cultural, and economic differencies. 

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

No one thing is culpable per-se. Societies built upon different cultural and economic practices and norms will evolve differently from top to bottom. You can look to apportion blame, but you'll be doing from a western viewpoint. It isn't the first pandemic to savage the sub-continent and it won't be the last. We can all agree that it's absolutely tragic, though, and as a global society should look to do more to prevent these things in the future. The trick will be managing the huge social, cultural, and economic differencies. 

 

You might like to think it will bring in a paradigm shift reform of such considerations but the reality will no doubt be very little action and change at all.  India was thought to have a reasonably good medical system as well.  Now they know rather different.

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 hours ago, **** the SPFL said:

me and the missus were in there after Killie match a few years back next to railway station was an old guy pished singing old songs, joined us a bit of a character but kept shaking my hand every two minutes barmaid eventually moved him to a seat on his own. She said that he's a regular but comes through from edinburgh strange guy but harmless

Might be the same guy  

2 hours ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Have a great time.

Cheers I did. Felt odd being back in a restaurant though. The waitress was saying its been a real headbanger getting used to it all again as well. Hit me like a ton of bricks when she said the last time she had served anyone was last Oct.  Thats nearly 6 months.   6 Months down the pan really. .it was just great to see chatting in a relaxed environment having your dinner made for you and having good conversation.  Didn't miss the booze at all.  In fact we noted that this maybe be a new normal where people might go out and dine and not bother so much about a drink with their meal?  Then again maybe no lol  Anyway ive broke my duck with dining.  Pub outside next and then back to  the gym .. Priorities priorities...::) 

56 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

And, I hasten to add, temples dripping with gold. It was one of the things that got to me when I was there - the contrast of the poverty and the richness of the temples. Seeing very poor folk, often disabled, begging outside temples festooned with gold doesn't sit right with me.

Me neither 

26 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

No one thing is culpable per-se. Societies built upon different cultural and economic practices and norms will evolve differently from top to bottom. You can look to apportion blame, but you'll be doing from a western viewpoint. It isn't the first pandemic to savage the sub-continent and it won't be the last. We can all agree that it's absolutely tragic, though, and as a global society should look to do more to prevent these things in the future. The trick will be managing the huge social, cultural, and economic differencies. 

Agreed

[The Real Maroonblood]

7 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Might be the same guy  

Cheers I did. Felt odd being back in a restaurant though. The waitress was saying its been a real headbanger getting used to it all again as well. Hit me like a ton of bricks when she said the last time she had served anyone was last Oct.  Thats nearly 6 months.   6 Months down the pan really. .it was just great to see chatting in a relaxed environment having your dinner made for you and having good conversation.  Didn't miss the booze at all.  In fact we noted that this maybe be a new normal where people might go out and dine and not bother so much about a drink with their meal?  Then again maybe no lol  Anyway ive broke my duck with dining.  Pub outside next and then back to  the gym .. Priorities priorities...::) 

Me neither 

Agreed

I’m glad it well.

I did find it a bit strange yesterday myself.

A bit sureal.

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I’m glad it well.

I did find it a bit strange yesterday myself.

A bit sureal.

Yes " surreal" is a good description of it.  Just very quiet and people were very sedate too.  Think it will take time for people to get back into the swing of things?  Back to their old ways of acting in shared public places. About feeling comfortable again i suppose. 

[JudyJudyJudy]

10 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

I’m glad it well.

I did find it a bit strange yesterday myself.

A bit sureal.

The more i think of it the more it is surreal and feels so bizarre like how people might have felt after a pro longed trauma. OK I know we have had Netflix and all the comforts of home and various protective factors but its just been that feeling of coming out of something really stressful and back to normality , doing normal things we took for granted until we didnt have them to take for granted if that makes sense?  Like i said the " 6 months " comment shocked me as the time has just flown by. 

[The Real Maroonblood]

18 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

Yes " surreal" is a good description of it.  Just very quiet and people were very sedate too.  Think it will take time for people to get back into the swing of things?  Back to their old ways of acting in shared public places. About feeling comfortable again i suppose. 

This.

8 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

The more i think of it the more it is surreal and feels so bizarre like how people might have felt after a pro longed trauma. OK I know we have had Netflix and all the comforts of home and various protective factors but its just been that feeling of coming out of something really stressful and back to normality , doing normal things we took for granted until we didnt have them to take for granted if that makes sense?  Like i said the " 6 months " comment shocked me as the time has just flown by. 

This.

[Zico]

2 hours ago, Gizmo said:

It doesn't sit terribly well with me if we have the AZ vaccine produced in India only for it to be exported (though they put that on hold as cases rose). I know we have commited to the Covax scheme but the inequality makes me feel pretty self-entitled as well as fortunate. I hope we don't get ourselves out the shit and go back to business as usual not giving a crap about the rest of the world.

Accepting the arguments about where India chooses to spend its money but there will be some countries that are simply poor af that suffer similarly. 

Setting aside the points the guv makes above, it will be in the west’s interest (and self-interest rools ok!) to offer more help due to the scale of infection in India and the likely higher rate of mutation.

 

At least India will be open to help, Brazil is a genuine basket case. Looking at really poor countries, the African countries are really interesting as the majority of them (other than one of its most developed) appear to be doing pretty well. Even considering the lack of testing, mortality rates seem pretty stable. According to a recent article I read anyway. 

[Doctor FinnBarr]

36 minutes ago, Zico said:

Setting aside the points the guv makes above, it will be in the west’s interest (and self-interest rools ok!) to offer more help due to the scale of infection in India and the likely higher rate of mutation.

 

At least India will be open to help, Brazil is a genuine basket case. Looking at really poor countries, the African countries are really interesting as the majority of them (other than one of its most developed) appear to be doing pretty well. Even considering the lack of testing, mortality rates seem pretty stable. According to a recent article I read anyway. 

 

Don't we already send India X amount of billions in foreign aid? Which no doubt is channeled off by the government into the space and nuclear programmes. Our foreign aid certainly doesn't seem to be helping the poor in any way so what makes you think any extra aid would go into covid research or vaccination programmes?

[Unknown user]

6 minutes ago, FinnBarr Saunders said:

 

Don't we already send India X amount of billions in foreign aid? Which no doubt is channeled off by the government into the space and nuclear programmes. Our foreign aid certainly doesn't seem to be helping the poor in any way so what makes you think any extra aid would go into covid research or vaccination programmes?

I'm pretty sure the Serum Institute of India is the biggest producer of vaccines in the world, and has already supplied us with millions of AstraZenica doses while their own population struggle.

 

...and I see that point's already been made

Edited April 27, 2021 by Smithee

[Zico]

9 minutes ago, FinnBarr Saunders said:

 

Don't we already send India X amount of billions in foreign aid? Which no doubt is channeled off by the government into the space and nuclear programmes. Our foreign aid certainly doesn't seem to be helping the poor in any way so what makes you think any extra aid would go into covid research or vaccination programmes?

We’ll send them vaccines, ventilators, testing equipment etc, not money. 

[DETTY29]

7 hours ago, Smithee said:

I'm pretty sure the Serum Institute of India is the biggest producer of vaccines in the world, and has already supplied us with millions of AstraZenica doses while their own population struggle.

 

...and I see that point's already been made

Biden's view.

 

India helped us out so much with vaccine support.  Now our turn.

 

Imagine if that selfish racist erse was still in charge over there?

 

'Right we can help you, but what do I get in return, from now'

 

Art of the Deal, you know.

Edited April 28, 2021 by DETTY29

[manaliveits105]

Euros in the sun still a possibility 🍺😎

[JudyJudyJudy]

15 hours ago, highlandjambo3 said:

Let’s cheer this place up a bit.......post a picture of your first meal out with a rating of 1 - 10 👍

I didn’t take phone out so didnt take a pic ! Rating was 7/10 it was only burger and chips but was not bad . Hardly ever eat stuff like that but once in a while as a treat is fine. More food pics please .! 

[Shanks said no]

Following some of the stories coming out of India. Are the numbers so shocking because of the huge population or is the rate of infection / deaths much higher? 

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Following some of the stories coming out of India. Are the numbers so shocking because of the huge population or is the rate of infection / deaths much higher? 

India's infrastructure is for shit and millions live in abject poverty.

There are people begging to be let in to hospitals that don't have anywhere to put them, left dying in the street.

 

Their health service has been overwhelmed.

Edited April 28, 2021 by Smithee

[Shanks said no]

7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

India's infrastructure is for shit and millions live in abject poverty.

There are people begging to be let in to hospitals that don't have anywhere to put them, left dying in the street.

 

Their health service has been overwhelmed.

One report on ITN said number reported in India were grossly underreported, possibly only a 20th of actuals and only some hospital deaths were being reported.

 

India is 20 times the size of the UK and at our peak we hit around 2000 daily deaths so India would be at 40,000 deaths a day if at a similar peak but are only reporting about 3,000

 

something not adding up. The pictures are showing people dying in the street and bodies being removed from houses straight to bonfires, this looks utterly horrific 

 

but they have a space programme........

[milky_26]

1 minute ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

One report on ITN said number reported in India were grossly underreported, possibly only a 20th of actuals and only some hospital deaths were being reported.

 

India is 20 times the size of the UK and at our peak we hit around 2000 daily deaths so India would be at 40,000 deaths a day if at a similar peak but are only reporting about 3,000

 

something not adding up. The pictures are showing people dying in the street and bodies being removed from houses straight to bonfires, this looks utterly horrific 

 

but they have a space programme........

i read that only deaths reported by hospitals were counted in their covid death figures, so if someone died at home with covid they would not be counted. the mortuaries etc reckon the deaths are at least double what is being reported

[Unknown user]

12 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

One report on ITN said number reported in India were grossly underreported, possibly only a 20th of actuals and only some hospital deaths were being reported.

 

India is 20 times the size of the UK and at our peak we hit around 2000 daily deaths so India would be at 40,000 deaths a day if at a similar peak but are only reporting about 3,000

 

something not adding up. The pictures are showing people dying in the street and bodies being removed from houses straight to bonfires, this looks utterly horrific 

 

but they have a space programme........

 

It'll be like here, you'll be recorded if diagnosed with covid. If you die in a slum and get thrown on a fire you don't get diagnosed.

 

11 minutes ago, milky_26 said:

i read that only deaths reported by hospitals were counted in their covid death figures, so if someone died at home with covid they would not be counted. the mortuaries etc reckon the deaths are at least double what is being reported

 

Exactly

[highlandjambo3]

15 hours ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

India has a space program and nuclear weapons, Vic'. It doesn't have to be this way for them.

I often say similar to people ......I’ve been to India a few times.....it’s NOT a third world country, it’s very wealthy and, it will soon overpopulate China and be the biggest economy in the world (COVID may delay this).  There are more millionaires and billionaires in India than there in the rest of the world combined.

 

Ok, it’s a strange type of culture they live in (you have to experience it to understand what I’m on about), the gap in wealth and poverty is huge but the ordinary people just accept it and they strive to be independent as individuals, even if it’s making snacks to sell on....btw their food culture is amazing.

 

The rich posh boy in his Ferrari can often be seen ripping down the street past dozens of tuc tucs and no one bats an eye.

 

Due to overpopulation, they are now building upwards with the rich buying up huge penthouses which are actually the complete floor of a tower-block.

 

A Crazy but functional place......best place I’ve ever visited on the planet but, COVID was always going to smash them but, you know what.....they will bounce straight back up.

[redjambo]

Scottish numbers: 28 April 2021

Summary

• 204 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+71; down from 273 a week ago]
• 24,133 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results [+8,701]
  • 0.9% of these were positive [-0.1%]
• 1 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [=]
• 12 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [+1]
• 75 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-6]
• 2,789,978 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 1,142,947 have received their second dose [+7,816; +40,257]

[redjambo]

Today's trend stats. Another nice drop in hospitalisations.

 

		7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Scotland		24	25	-1		26	28	28	29	28	...	59
Moray	3	51	41	+10		47	N/A	45	43	44	...	56
North Lanarkshire	3	45	54	-9		57	N/A	64	64	59	...	117
East Ayrshire	3	41	43	-2		44	N/A	48	55	50	...	72
East Dunbartonshire	3	41	40	+1		40	N/A	41	42	33	...	56
Glasgow City	3	36	37	-1		37	N/A	40	42	46	...	81
South Ayrshire	3	36	42	-6		43	N/A	42	40	33	...	19
Fife	3	33	34	-1		33	N/A	30	28	25	...	42
West Dunbartonshire	3	29	34	-5		33	N/A	27	28	21	...	66
Edinburgh City	3	26	26	0		29	N/A	30	29	26	...	50
Dundee City	3	26	23	+3		26	N/A	28	24	21	...	64
Perth & Kinross	3	26	31	-5		34	N/A	39	35	32	...	36
Renfrewshire	3	25	23	+2		25	N/A	23	24	21	...	103
East Renfrewshire	3	23	22	+1		18	N/A	28	29	31	...	45
Falkirk	3	23	25	-2		26	N/A	27	27	30	...	90
South Lanarkshire	3	21	23	-2		24	N/A	34	41	44	...	62
Clackmannanshire	3	19	37	-18		39	N/A	52	70	68	...	233
Dumfries & Galloway	3	19	19	0		17	N/A	15	9	5	...	5
North Ayrshire	3	19	18	+1		21	N/A	24	25	28	...	71
West Lothian	3	19	18	+1		17	N/A	23	21	21	...	129
Abrdn Cty	3	15	15	0		16	N/A	21	22	22	...	44
Inverclyde	3	12	14	-2		12	N/A	13	14	13	...	21
Stirling	3	12	13	-1		13	N/A	15	12	12	...	58
East Lothian	3	11	12	-1		13	N/A	10	9	7	...	37
Highland	3	7	8	-1		8	N/A	8	9	8	...	7
Abrdnshr	3	6	8	-2		8	N/A	12	15	16	...	28
Argyll & Bute	3	6	6	0		6	N/A	5	5	5	...	7
Angus	3	5	3	+2		3	N/A	6	9	11	...	42
Orkney Islands	3	4	4	0		9	N/A	9	4	0	...	0
Scottish Borders	3	3	1	+2		1	N/A	1	1	1	...	11
Midlothian	3	2	3	-1		3	N/A	4	4	4	...	57
Na h-Eileanan Siar	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	0
Shetland Islands	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	9
7-day averages		Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Tests		18182	18213	-31		18132	18251	18060	18195	17960	...	21722
Positivity rate %		1.2	1.3	-0.1		1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	...	2.4
Deaths		1.6	1.6	0.0		1.7	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.6	...	5.4
All Vaccinations		47528	48219	-691		48238	47271	44098	42395	40392	...	49063
1st Dose		5343	4587	+756		3725	3847	4460	5185	6641	...	29659
2nd Dose		42185	43632	-1447		44513	43424	39638	37210	33751	...	19404
Daily data
Hospital (non-ICU)		63	70	-7		81	N/A	N/A	81	81	...	194
ICU		12	11	+1		12	N/A	N/A	12	12	...	21

[JudyJudyJudy]

2 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Today's trend stats. Another nice drop in hospitalisations.

 

		7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Scotland		24	25	-1		26	28	28	29	28	...	59
Moray	3	51	41	+10		47	N/A	45	43	44	...	56
North Lanarkshire	3	45	54	-9		57	N/A	64	64	59	...	117
East Ayrshire	3	41	43	-2		44	N/A	48	55	50	...	72
East Dunbartonshire	3	41	40	+1		40	N/A	41	42	33	...	56
Glasgow City	3	36	37	-1		37	N/A	40	42	46	...	81
South Ayrshire	3	36	42	-6		43	N/A	42	40	33	...	19
Fife	3	33	34	-1		33	N/A	30	28	25	...	42
West Dunbartonshire	3	29	34	-5		33	N/A	27	28	21	...	66
Edinburgh City	3	26	26	0		29	N/A	30	29	26	...	50
Dundee City	3	26	23	+3		26	N/A	28	24	21	...	64
Perth & Kinross	3	26	31	-5		34	N/A	39	35	32	...	36
Renfrewshire	3	25	23	+2		25	N/A	23	24	21	...	103
East Renfrewshire	3	23	22	+1		18	N/A	28	29	31	...	45
Falkirk	3	23	25	-2		26	N/A	27	27	30	...	90
South Lanarkshire	3	21	23	-2		24	N/A	34	41	44	...	62
Clackmannanshire	3	19	37	-18		39	N/A	52	70	68	...	233
Dumfries & Galloway	3	19	19	0		17	N/A	15	9	5	...	5
North Ayrshire	3	19	18	+1		21	N/A	24	25	28	...	71
West Lothian	3	19	18	+1		17	N/A	23	21	21	...	129
Abrdn Cty	3	15	15	0		16	N/A	21	22	22	...	44
Inverclyde	3	12	14	-2		12	N/A	13	14	13	...	21
Stirling	3	12	13	-1		13	N/A	15	12	12	...	58
East Lothian	3	11	12	-1		13	N/A	10	9	7	...	37
Highland	3	7	8	-1		8	N/A	8	9	8	...	7
Abrdnshr	3	6	8	-2		8	N/A	12	15	16	...	28
Argyll & Bute	3	6	6	0		6	N/A	5	5	5	...	7
Angus	3	5	3	+2		3	N/A	6	9	11	...	42
Orkney Islands	3	4	4	0		9	N/A	9	4	0	...	0
Scottish Borders	3	3	1	+2		1	N/A	1	1	1	...	11
Midlothian	3	2	3	-1		3	N/A	4	4	4	...	57
Na h-Eileanan Siar	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	0
Shetland Islands	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	9
7-day averages		Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Tests		18182	18213	-31		18132	18251	18060	18195	17960	...	21722
Positivity rate %		1.2	1.3	-0.1		1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	...	2.4
Deaths		1.6	1.6	0.0		1.7	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.6	...	5.4
All Vaccinations		47528	48219	-691		48238	47271	44098	42395	40392	...	49063
1st Dose		5343	4587	+756		3725	3847	4460	5185	6641	...	29659
2nd Dose		42185	43632	-1447		44513	43424	39638	37210	33751	...	19404
Daily data
Hospital (non-ICU)		63	70	-7		81	N/A	N/A	81	81	...	194
ICU		12	11	+1		12	N/A	N/A	12	12	...	21

👍

[The Real Maroonblood]

9 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Today's trend stats. Another nice drop in hospitalisations.

 

		7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Scotland		24	25	-1		26	28	28	29	28	...	59
Moray	3	51	41	+10		47	N/A	45	43	44	...	56
North Lanarkshire	3	45	54	-9		57	N/A	64	64	59	...	117
East Ayrshire	3	41	43	-2		44	N/A	48	55	50	...	72
East Dunbartonshire	3	41	40	+1		40	N/A	41	42	33	...	56
Glasgow City	3	36	37	-1		37	N/A	40	42	46	...	81
South Ayrshire	3	36	42	-6		43	N/A	42	40	33	...	19
Fife	3	33	34	-1		33	N/A	30	28	25	...	42
West Dunbartonshire	3	29	34	-5		33	N/A	27	28	21	...	66
Edinburgh City	3	26	26	0		29	N/A	30	29	26	...	50
Dundee City	3	26	23	+3		26	N/A	28	24	21	...	64
Perth & Kinross	3	26	31	-5		34	N/A	39	35	32	...	36
Renfrewshire	3	25	23	+2		25	N/A	23	24	21	...	103
East Renfrewshire	3	23	22	+1		18	N/A	28	29	31	...	45
Falkirk	3	23	25	-2		26	N/A	27	27	30	...	90
South Lanarkshire	3	21	23	-2		24	N/A	34	41	44	...	62
Clackmannanshire	3	19	37	-18		39	N/A	52	70	68	...	233
Dumfries & Galloway	3	19	19	0		17	N/A	15	9	5	...	5
North Ayrshire	3	19	18	+1		21	N/A	24	25	28	...	71
West Lothian	3	19	18	+1		17	N/A	23	21	21	...	129
Abrdn Cty	3	15	15	0		16	N/A	21	22	22	...	44
Inverclyde	3	12	14	-2		12	N/A	13	14	13	...	21
Stirling	3	12	13	-1		13	N/A	15	12	12	...	58
East Lothian	3	11	12	-1		13	N/A	10	9	7	...	37
Highland	3	7	8	-1		8	N/A	8	9	8	...	7
Abrdnshr	3	6	8	-2		8	N/A	12	15	16	...	28
Argyll & Bute	3	6	6	0		6	N/A	5	5	5	...	7
Angus	3	5	3	+2		3	N/A	6	9	11	...	42
Orkney Islands	3	4	4	0		9	N/A	9	4	0	...	0
Scottish Borders	3	3	1	+2		1	N/A	1	1	1	...	11
Midlothian	3	2	3	-1		3	N/A	4	4	4	...	57
Na h-Eileanan Siar	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	0
Shetland Islands	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	9
7-day averages		Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Tests		18182	18213	-31		18132	18251	18060	18195	17960	...	21722
Positivity rate %		1.2	1.3	-0.1		1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	...	2.4
Deaths		1.6	1.6	0.0		1.7	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.6	...	5.4
All Vaccinations		47528	48219	-691		48238	47271	44098	42395	40392	...	49063
1st Dose		5343	4587	+756		3725	3847	4460	5185	6641	...	29659
2nd Dose		42185	43632	-1447		44513	43424	39638	37210	33751	...	19404
Daily data
Hospital (non-ICU)		63	70	-7		81	N/A	N/A	81	81	...	194
ICU		12	11	+1		12	N/A	N/A	12	12	...	21

👍

[Footballfirst]

11 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Today's trend stats. Another nice drop in hospitalisations.

Positivity below 1% is another good indicator.

 

Wednesday is typically has the highest number of cases reported each week (7 out of the last 10?). I guess that is due to people who feel unwell over the weekend get themselves a test on a Monday, get the result back on Tuesday which is reported in Wednesday's figures.

 

The local figure for Edinburgh is a little disappointing, although the official 7 day average dropped a fraction from the previous day. The average will remain flat tomorrow, at best, because of the inclusion of at least 21 positive tests that were taken on Monday. 

[redjambo]

8 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Wednesday is typically has the highest number of cases reported each week (7 out of the last 10?). I guess that is due to people who feel unwell over the weekend get themselves a test on a Monday, get the result back on Tuesday which is reported in Wednesday's figures.

 

I'd never thought about it, but that does make sense, FF.

[Ray Gin]

45 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Today's trend stats. Another nice drop in hospitalisations.

 

		7-day per-100,000 cases
Council Area	Tier	Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Scotland		24	25	-1		26	28	28	29	28	...	59
Moray	3	51	41	+10		47	N/A	45	43	44	...	56
North Lanarkshire	3	45	54	-9		57	N/A	64	64	59	...	117
East Ayrshire	3	41	43	-2		44	N/A	48	55	50	...	72
East Dunbartonshire	3	41	40	+1		40	N/A	41	42	33	...	56
Glasgow City	3	36	37	-1		37	N/A	40	42	46	...	81
South Ayrshire	3	36	42	-6		43	N/A	42	40	33	...	19
Fife	3	33	34	-1		33	N/A	30	28	25	...	42
West Dunbartonshire	3	29	34	-5		33	N/A	27	28	21	...	66
Edinburgh City	3	26	26	0		29	N/A	30	29	26	...	50
Dundee City	3	26	23	+3		26	N/A	28	24	21	...	64
Perth & Kinross	3	26	31	-5		34	N/A	39	35	32	...	36
Renfrewshire	3	25	23	+2		25	N/A	23	24	21	...	103
East Renfrewshire	3	23	22	+1		18	N/A	28	29	31	...	45
Falkirk	3	23	25	-2		26	N/A	27	27	30	...	90
South Lanarkshire	3	21	23	-2		24	N/A	34	41	44	...	62
Clackmannanshire	3	19	37	-18		39	N/A	52	70	68	...	233
Dumfries & Galloway	3	19	19	0		17	N/A	15	9	5	...	5
North Ayrshire	3	19	18	+1		21	N/A	24	25	28	...	71
West Lothian	3	19	18	+1		17	N/A	23	21	21	...	129
Abrdn Cty	3	15	15	0		16	N/A	21	22	22	...	44
Inverclyde	3	12	14	-2		12	N/A	13	14	13	...	21
Stirling	3	12	13	-1		13	N/A	15	12	12	...	58
East Lothian	3	11	12	-1		13	N/A	10	9	7	...	37
Highland	3	7	8	-1		8	N/A	8	9	8	...	7
Abrdnshr	3	6	8	-2		8	N/A	12	15	16	...	28
Argyll & Bute	3	6	6	0		6	N/A	5	5	5	...	7
Angus	3	5	3	+2		3	N/A	6	9	11	...	42
Orkney Islands	3	4	4	0		9	N/A	9	4	0	...	0
Scottish Borders	3	3	1	+2		1	N/A	1	1	1	...	11
Midlothian	3	2	3	-1		3	N/A	4	4	4	...	57
Na h-Eileanan Siar	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	0
Shetland Islands	3	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	...	9
7-day averages		Today	Yesterday			26 Apr	25 Apr	24 Apr	23 Apr	22 Apr	...	1 Apr
Tests		18182	18213	-31		18132	18251	18060	18195	17960	...	21722
Positivity rate %		1.2	1.3	-0.1		1.3	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	...	2.4
Deaths		1.6	1.6	0.0		1.7	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.6	...	5.4
All Vaccinations		47528	48219	-691		48238	47271	44098	42395	40392	...	49063
1st Dose		5343	4587	+756		3725	3847	4460	5185	6641	...	29659
2nd Dose		42185	43632	-1447		44513	43424	39638	37210	33751	...	19404
Daily data
Hospital (non-ICU)		63	70	-7		81	N/A	N/A	81	81	...	194
ICU		12	11	+1		12	N/A	N/A	12	12	...	21

 

Some turnaround in the past month for Clackmannanshire.

 

[The Real Maroonblood]

Just now, Ray Gin said:

 

Some turnaround in the past month for Clackmannanshire.

 

It's quite spectacular. 

[Ray Gin]

4 hours ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Following some of the stories coming out of India. Are the numbers so shocking because of the huge population or is the rate of infection / deaths much higher? 

 

India is currently way down the deaths by population table, not even in the top 50, but we can expect them to rise rapidly over the coming weeks. 

[redjambo]

13 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

India is currently way down the deaths by population table, not even in the top 50, but we can expect them to rise rapidly over the coming weeks. 

 

119th out of 222 countries/territories on this measure according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries. Even on per-capita cases, they're only 117th. It's the sheer size of India that's producing the large absolute figures. Given India's population, sadly it has the potential to get much much worse.

[Footballfirst]

4 hours ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

Following some of the stories coming out of India. Are the numbers so shocking because of the huge population or is the rate of infection / deaths much higher? 

The scale of the problem is magnified by India's population (20 times the UK).  So 300,000 cases a day would be the equivalent of 15,000 a day in the UK, which we experienced from December through to early February.

 

That said, there is a likelihood that that the daily reporting hugely understates the problem, as the positivity rate has been as high as 50% in some cities.  

 

The demographics of India means that there are a lot of poor people living in densely populated cities like Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai.  Their faiths and religious ceremonies don't help either as they have brought 10s of thousands of people together in recent weeks.

 

There is no easy way out of the mess they find themselves.

[JudyJudyJudy]

Good news for boozers . Loophole of some sort means some bars can open outside later than 10pm

 

 

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/edinburgh-pub-serve-drinks-past-20484553?fbclid=IwAR2o67BwKmRAsvmoukQOP8ehwh3c5oZmFvrpzSf0uk4P6OAgC7ylANhYC0w

[Victorian]

The model suggests India have about 5,000,000 cases per day per the suggested true figures,  which would be circa 250,000 in the UK.  I haven't seem any info about their current R0 estimates but even if it's 2.0 then 5,000,000 becomes 160 million after 5 days.  Testing is said to be sporadic and who can trust the government figures? 

 

 

[Unknown user]

7 minutes ago, Victorian said:

The model suggests India have about 5,000,000 cases per day per the suggested true figures,  which would be circa 250,000 in the UK.  I haven't seem any info about their current R0 estimates but even if it's 2.0 then 5,000,000 becomes 160 million after 5 days.  Testing is said to be sporadic and who can trust the government figures? 

And their health system's already creaking, they won't have the survival rate we and others did. It looks pretty grim.

[Victorian]

Just now, Smithee said:

And their health system's already creaking, they won't have the survival rate we and others did. It looks pretty grim.

 

Yep.  Worst parts of the bible stuff if the modelling is near correct and their R0 is still around 2.0.  There is inevitably a tipping point where so many people are getting it and a percentage are ill that even dealing with the dead becomes a challenge.  Hope it turns out better than the theoretical possibilities. 

[Footballfirst]

Some observations on Scotland's vaccination figures.

 

Scotland was very successful in maximising the take up of the 1st dose of the vaccines among the most vulnerable groups, i.e. Care Home residents and staff, health and care staff, the over 80s, 75s, 70s, etc.

 

Today's numbers show the the largest proportion of 1st doses are going to the over 40s and the largest proportion of 2nd doses to the over 65s age group.  Both those indicators are consistent with what would be expected given the rollout to date.

 

What is also evident is a fall in the take up rates for the 2nd doses among the most vulnerable groups, all of whom could be expected to already have had their 2nd doses, given we are currently offering the over 65s theirs.

 

For Care Home residents, 87.2% of those who received a 1st dose have received a 2nd dose.

For Care Home staff the figure is 87.3%,

For Health and Care staff it's 83.4%

For over 80s it's 91.4%

For over 75s it's 81.1%  

For over 70s it's 72.2% 

 

I wouldn't expect to get to 100% for any of those groups as there will be several reasons why the totals aren't matched, e.g. some Care Home residents will have died of non Covid reasons over the last four months after receiving a 1st dose. The has also been a trickle of late 1st doses.  The same applies to each of the other elderly groups. 

 

Other explanations may be that some people had a bad reaction to their first dose and have declined a 2nd, or have been put off by the adverse publicity about the AZ vaccine.

 

I think the SG will be looking to get to somewhere around the 90%-95% range for all groups. The Health and Care staff number would probably be the biggest concern at this stage.  I'd expect that the over 75s and over 70s numbers will continue to grow as the slower Health Boards and GP practices catch up.  It's something to keep an eye on though. 

 

On a different point about vaccines, I heard a scientist on the radio earlier today, suggesting that the U30s should only get/need a single dose which could be repeated possibly annually, allowing priority for booster jabs to the more vulnerable groups heading into next winter.  That seems a pretty sensible and practical approach.