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1 minute ago, Shanks said:


Do you think that fat people would choose healthier food if it was the same price as unhealthy food? Can’t say I’m convinced with that.  
 

A lot of unhealthy folk still find the money for takeaways, booze and fags and I don’t think reducing the price of apples is going to make them change their ways I’m afraid.  
 


It’s also free to go for a jog so I don’t think it all comes down to money. 

 

How much does it cost to feed a family of 4 a meal from a chippy? About £20-£30?

 

Could easily get 3 decent family meals out of that.

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2 minutes ago, Shanks said:


Do you think that fat people would choose healthier food if it was the same price as unhealthy food? Can’t say I’m convinced with that.  
 

A lot of unhealthy folk still find the money for takeaways, booze and fags and I don’t think reducing the price of apples is going to make them change their ways I’m afraid.  
 


It’s also free to go for a jog so I don’t think it all comes down to money. 

 

The other issue is what do you tax?

 

Avocados, honey, orange juice? All high in fat or sugar.

 

If someone eats 3000 calories a day and burns 2500 they'll get fatter and fatter regardless of what food they eat. Of course there are other benefits to 'healthy' foods and I'm not saying a calorie is a calorie but when it comes to weight loss, 3000 calories from apples will make you as fat as 3000 calories from pies. 

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joondalupjambo
1 minute ago, redjambo said:

I see from the news headlines that "The Audit Scotland report published today says Scottish government was not adequately prepared for the Covid-19 pandemic." Quelle surprise. :)

Yeah a bit like reports saying we have found that unhealthy, over weight folk have more chance of catching Covid or Covid is more prevalent in poorer areas. Money is sometimes handed out to consultants to come up with this stuff when it is stating the obvious in many cases.  I understand that proof is required but it boils yer stones when we all know it already,

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Doom and gloom from Boris, unlikely to ease anything significantly until under 1000 cases a day (currently over 10k). Relentlessly negative, can't help himself etc.

 

 

 

 

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Scottish numbers: 17 February 2021

Summary

  • 1,121 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+348]
  • 24,343 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 5.2% of these were positive [+9.775; -0.8%]
  • 64 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [+15]
  • 99 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-1]
  • 1,317 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-66]
  • 1,320,074 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 20,409 have received their second dose [+32,070; +3,272]
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"Over the summer we were treated to all this on the television news and pictures of crowded beaches and there was an outcry about this. There were no outbreaks linked to crowded beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach ever anywhere in the world to the best of my knowledge."

 

- Professor Mark Woodhouse 

 

'Covidiots' though right?

 

 

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Dennis Reynolds
4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Scottish numbers: 17 February 2021

Summary

  • 1,121 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+348]
  • 24,343 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 5.2% of these were positive [+9.775; -0.8%]
  • 64 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [+15]
  • 99 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-1]
  • 1,317 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-66]
  • 1,320,074 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 20,409 have received their second dose [+32,070; +3,272]

 

I know the case numbers have jumped a bit but thankfully the others are still coming down. Although that obviously might change as the case numbers increase....

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Footballfirst
11 minutes ago, redjambo said:

Scottish numbers: 17 February 2021

Summary

  • 1,121 new cases of COVID-19 reported [+348]
  • 24,343 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results – 5.2% of these were positive [+9.775; -0.8%]
  • 64 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive [+15]
  • 99 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-1]
  • 1,317 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 [-66]
  • 1,320,074 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 20,409 have received their second dose [+32,070; +3,272]

The increase seems spread across the board with significant increases in Greater Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Lothian, Ayrshire and Forth Valley

 

The probable HMP Addiewell outbreak continues to impact on "Briech valley" and West Lothian with a local 7day/100k rate of 1,914

Edited by Footballfirst
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Malinga the Swinga
13 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

Doom and gloom from Boris, unlikely to ease anything significantly until under 1000 cases a day (currently over 10k). Relentlessly negative, can't help himself etc.

 

 

 

 

Lovely bit of deflection and whataboutery. 

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The most recent 7-day stats. The recovery honeymoon may be (hopefully temporarily) over, with case increases particularly at the top of the table. Hopefully vaccinations will mean that these extra cases won't convert into hospitalisations and deaths to the extent they have done previously.

 

    Pre- 7-day per-100,000 cases                
Council Area Tier Lockdown Today Yesterday     15 Feb 14 Feb 13 Feb 12 Feb 11 Feb ... 20 Dec
Scotland     108 102 +6   103 110 104 104 105 ... 98
East Ayrshire 4 3 331 312 +19   319 316 284 254 204 ... 153
Clackmannanshire 4 3 231 233 -2   229 221 227 211 208 ... 148
West Dunbartonshire 4 3 228 219 +9   227 224 201 182 183 ... 120
Falkirk 4 2 214 187 +27   196 205 190 183 186 ... 60
West Lothian 4 3 192 177 +15   164 152 100 106 106 ... 83
Renfrewshire 4 3 183 168 +15   159 166 147 152 137 ... 116
North Lanarkshire 4 3 170 146 +24   149 167 161 160 162 ... 119
Stirling 4 3 163 157 +6   159 165 160 153 158 ... 70
South Lanarkshire 4 3 147 141 +6   146 151 150 147 145 ... 120
Glasgow City 4 3 137 131 +6   133 153 144 145 149 ... 129
North Ayrshire 4 3 132 134 -2   135 144 135 129 136 ... 175
Midlothian 4 3 110 107 +3   97 100 98 98 96 ... 136
East Renfrewshire 4 3 106 103 +3   109 127 106 106 120 ... 101
Na h-Eileanan Siar 4 1 105 112 -7   116 124 116 124 101 ... 22
Inverclyde 4 2 94 100 -6   104 100 99 104 93 ... 59
Moray 4 1 75 75 0   67 78 72 77 75 ... 13
Edinburgh City 4 3 69 62 +7   60 62 61 63 63 ... 109
East Dunbartonshire 4 3 67 56 +11   69 83 83 96 104 ... 70
East Lothian 4 3 66 63 +3   58 78 73 81 82 ... 148
Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 64 70 -6   73 86 87 93 101 ... 32
South Ayrshire 4 3 63 67 -4   72 85 91 94 103 ... 98
Highland 4/3 1 61 56 +5   58 62 59 61 66 ... 17
Fife 4 3 60 62 -2   56 55 53 52 49 ... 97
Perth & Kinross 4 3 56 59 -3   55 64 71 59 59 ... 126
Red Angus 4 2 54 53 +1   53 61 67 79 94 ... 37
Argyll & Bute 4/3 2 45 50 -5   68 79 83 87 98 ... 29
Dundee City 4 3 43 40 +3   38 40 40 54 70 ... 113
Aberdeenshire 4 3 40 40 0   45 49 49 41 48 ... 88
Aberdeen City 4 3 36 33 +3   35 41 43 40 47 ... 163
Scottish Borders 4 1 31 27 +4   29 29 31 35 36 ... 85
Orkney Islands 3 1 22 27 -5   27 27 27 27 18 ... 0
Shetland Islands 3 1 0 0 0   4 4 9 9 9 ... 0
                           
                           
7-day averages                          
Tests     18318 17622 +696   17424 18373 17754 17137 17531 ... 16839
Positivity rate %     5.4 5.3 +0.1   5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 ... 5.2
Hospital (non-ICU)     1322 1352 -30   1384 1418 1455 1494 1539 ... 975
ICU     106 108 -2   109 110 111 112 113 ... 50
Deaths     40 38 +2   39 40 40 40 40 ... 25
All Vaccinations     48864 52109 -3245   56064 55497 55852 53631 51262    
1st Dose     47786 51412 -3626   55481 54930 55288 53016 50629    
2nd Dose     1078 697 +381   583 567 564 615 633    
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Malinga the Swinga
11 minutes ago, Taffin said:

"Over the summer we were treated to all this on the television news and pictures of crowded beaches and there was an outcry about this. There were no outbreaks linked to crowded beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach ever anywhere in the world to the best of my knowledge."

 

- Professor Mark Woodhouse 

 

'Covidiots' though right?

 

 

Hope your not suggesting that relentless blaming of public is wrong and that our scientific advisors are simply guessing as to what to do. 

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Nucky Thompson
27 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

Doom and gloom from Boris, unlikely to ease anything significantly until under 1000 cases a day (currently over 10k). Relentlessly negative, can't help himself etc.

 

 

 

 

Source?

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scott herbertson
11 minutes ago, redjambo said:

The most recent 7-day stats. The recovery honeymoon may be (hopefully temporarily) over, with case increases particularly at the top of the table. Hopefully vaccinations will mean that these extra cases won't convert into hospitalisations and deaths to the extent they have done previously.

 

    Pre- 7-day per-100,000 cases                
Council Area Tier Lockdown Today Yesterday     15 Feb 14 Feb 13 Feb 12 Feb 11 Feb ... 20 Dec
Scotland     108 102 +6   103 110 104 104 105 ... 98
East Ayrshire 4 3 331 312 +19   319 316 284 254 204 ... 153
Clackmannanshire 4 3 231 233 -2   229 221 227 211 208 ... 148
West Dunbartonshire 4 3 228 219 +9   227 224 201 182 183 ... 120
Falkirk 4 2 214 187 +27   196 205 190 183 186 ... 60
West Lothian 4 3 192 177 +15   164 152 100 106 106 ... 83
Renfrewshire 4 3 183 168 +15   159 166 147 152 137 ... 116
North Lanarkshire 4 3 170 146 +24   149 167 161 160 162 ... 119
Stirling 4 3 163 157 +6   159 165 160 153 158 ... 70
South Lanarkshire 4 3 147 141 +6   146 151 150 147 145 ... 120
Glasgow City 4 3 137 131 +6   133 153 144 145 149 ... 129
North Ayrshire 4 3 132 134 -2   135 144 135 129 136 ... 175
Midlothian 4 3 110 107 +3   97 100 98 98 96 ... 136
East Renfrewshire 4 3 106 103 +3   109 127 106 106 120 ... 101
Na h-Eileanan Siar 4 1 105 112 -7   116 124 116 124 101 ... 22
Inverclyde 4 2 94 100 -6   104 100 99 104 93 ... 59
Moray 4 1 75 75 0   67 78 72 77 75 ... 13
Edinburgh City 4 3 69 62 +7   60 62 61 63 63 ... 109
East Dunbartonshire 4 3 67 56 +11   69 83 83 96 104 ... 70
East Lothian 4 3 66 63 +3   58 78 73 81 82 ... 148
Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 64 70 -6   73 86 87 93 101 ... 32
South Ayrshire 4 3 63 67 -4   72 85 91 94 103 ... 98
Highland 4/3 1 61 56 +5   58 62 59 61 66 ... 17
Fife 4 3 60 62 -2   56 55 53 52 49 ... 97
Perth & Kinross 4 3 56 59 -3   55 64 71 59 59 ... 126
Red Angus 4 2 54 53 +1   53 61 67 79 94 ... 37
Argyll & Bute 4/3 2 45 50 -5   68 79 83 87 98 ... 29
Dundee City 4 3 43 40 +3   38 40 40 54 70 ... 113
Aberdeenshire 4 3 40 40 0   45 49 49 41 48 ... 88
Aberdeen City 4 3 36 33 +3   35 41 43 40 47 ... 163
Scottish Borders 4 1 31 27 +4   29 29 31 35 36 ... 85
Orkney Islands 3 1 22 27 -5   27 27 27 27 18 ... 0
Shetland Islands 3 1 0 0 0   4 4 9 9 9 ... 0
                           
                           
7-day averages                          
Tests     18318 17622 +696   17424 18373 17754 17137 17531 ... 16839
Positivity rate %     5.4 5.3 +0.1   5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 ... 5.2
Hospital (non-ICU)     1322 1352 -30   1384 1418 1455 1494 1539 ... 975
ICU     106 108 -2   109 110 111 112 113 ... 50
Deaths     40 38 +2   39 40 40 40 40 ... 25
All Vaccinations     48864 52109 -3245   56064 55497 55852 53631 51262    
1st Dose     47786 51412 -3626   55481 54930 55288 53016 50629    
2nd Dose     1078 697 +381   583 567 564 615 633    

 

 

One caveat to the disappointment over case numbers is that the positivity is low - 5.2% as so many tests were conducted - 24000+, the highest number for some time.

 

So I think this is not necessarily an upsurge and that case numbers will fall again, slowly, over the rest of the wek.

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With today's figures, East Ayrshire could potentially be the council area with the highest 7-day per-capita rate in the UK once all the stats have been calculated.

Edited by redjambo
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10 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Hope your not suggesting that relentless blaming of public is wrong and that our scientific advisors are simply guessing as to what to do. 

 

Wouldn't dream of it.

 

“My conclusion from that is if you’re driven by the data and not by dates, right now, you should be looking at earlier unlocking.” Prof Woolhouse (autocorrected to Woodhouse in my previous post)

 

Maybe listening to the experts is the way to go afterall. I'm guessing this is one of the experts we're not supposed to listen to though.

 

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2 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

One caveat to the disappointment over case numbers is that the positivity is low - 5.2% as so many tests were conducted - 24000+, the highest number for some time.

 

So I think this is not necessarily an upsurge and that case numbers will fall again, slowly, over the rest of the wek.

 

Here's hoping so. :thumb:

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Nucky Thompson
18 minutes ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Lovely bit of deflection and whataboutery. 

I can't find Boris quoted anywhere about waiting until infections are below 1000 before easing

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Footballfirst
13 minutes ago, redjambo said:

The most recent 7-day stats. The recovery honeymoon may be (hopefully temporarily) over, with case increases particularly at the top of the table. Hopefully vaccinations will mean that these extra cases won't convert into hospitalisations and deaths to the extent they have done previously.

The hospitalisation figures are looking much better, particularly in terms of admissions.  The  7 day average peaked at 197 admissions per day on 12 January. That has dropped steadily over the last month and the latest 7 day figure (13 February) was 78.  ICU admissions have been a bit more stubborn with the 7 day average having peaked at 18 per day on 18 January but has been sticking around 12 admissions per day for the last three weeks,

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Footballfirst

Encouraging to note that 2nd doses are beginning to increase (3,272 - highest so far), as it is now approaching 12 weeks since the programme started.

Edited by Footballfirst
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Dennis Reynolds
12 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I can't find Boris quoted anywhere about waiting until infections are below 1000 before easing

 

Seems to be NHS providers have stated this rather than Boris and it's just a recommendation.

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10 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The hospitalisation figures are looking much better, particularly in terms of admissions.  The  7 day average peaked at 197 admissions per day on 12 January. That has dropped steadily over the last month and the latest 7 day figure (13 February) was 78.  ICU admissions have been a bit more stubborn with the 7 day average having peaked at 18 per day on 18 January but has been sticking around 12 admissions per day for the last three weeks,

 

Thanks for those stats, FF.

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5 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

Encouraging to note that 2nd doses are beginning to increase (3,272 - highest so far), as it is now approaching 12 weeks since the programme started.

that will probably have a knock on effect of reducing the number of first doses to make sure the 12 week gap is met.

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1 minute ago, LMc said:

 

Seems to be NHS providers have stated this rather than Boris and it's just a recommendation.

 

It was a "senior Whitehall source" who leaked the news. It has been reported in a few places. Such before-the-fact leaks tend to be the authorities' way of preparing us for bad news before it happens, although not necessarily so. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/16/covidlockdown-continue-cases-drop-1000-day/

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scott herbertson
1 minute ago, milky_26 said:

that will probably have a knock on effect of reducing the number of first doses to make sure the 12 week gap is met.

 

 

Almost certainly - and remember those first doses were focussed mainly on care homes so will be much slower than test centres as the vaccinations/ vaccinators  need to go out to the care home settings

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22 hours ago, DETTY29 said:

As at 8:30am on Tuesday 16 February:

  • 1,288,004 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 17,137 have received their second dose
  • 30,218 care home residents (exceeding the initial target for residents in older adult care homes and 94% of residents in all care homes)
  • 41,038 care home staff (91% of staff in older adult care homes and 79% of staff in all care homes)
  • 283,622 frontline health and social care workers exceeding the initial target provided by Health Boards.

Latest progress for each age group on first doses shows we have vaccinated:

  • 270,654 people aged 80 or over (exceeding estimated population based on the latest mid-2019 population estimates)
  • 199,163 people aged 75-79 (exceeding estimated population)
  • 245,231 people aged 70-74 (88%)
  • 173,918 people aged 65-69 (58%)

By my calculations 44,160k 'others' have been vaccinated outside of the JCVI priorities we have been working towards.

 

Revised vaccination data announced, with a couple of changes in movements, a new reporting indicator and something that unless I'm mistaken, just does not make sense.

 

70-74 years old increase from 88% to 90%.  This is the only 'key mid Feb' cohort where we were behind Wales in take up rates but that gap has narrowed from 2% to 0.5% over last 2 days.

 

65-69 years old increase from 58% to 64% with 109k to do by end month.

 

Clinically vulnerable now reported with 143752 1st dose vaccinated against 179267 target (80% - this compares with Wales who have been reporting) - this compares with Wales but the target is virtually 70k above the initial estimate of 110k in the Scotland Vaccination Document

 

What doesn't makes sense however is the addition now that the clinically vulnerable are included unless they are also counted in other categories

 

30355 - CHR

41210 - CHS

285054 - FH&SC

143752 -CEV

271528 - 80+

201356 - 75 - 79

250986 - 70 - 74

190651 - 65 -69

1,414, 892 compared to a quoted 1st dose total 1,320,074,  a difference of 94,818

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SG Text

As at 8:30am on Wednesday 17 February:

  • 1,320,074 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 20,409 have received their second dose

Latest progress on first doses for the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) priority groups as at 8:30am on Wednesday 17 February:

  • 30,355 care home residents (exceeding the initial target for residents in older adult care homes and 95% of residents in all care homes)
  • 41,210 care home staff (92% of staff in older adult care homes and 79% of staff in all care homes)
  • 285,054 frontline health and social care workers exceeding the initial target provided by Health Boards.
  • 143,752 people who are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (80% of those on the shielding list).

Latest progress for each age group on first doses shows we have vaccinated:

  • 271,528 people aged 80 or over (exceeding estimated population based on the latest mid-2019 population estimates)
  • 201,356 people aged 75-79 (exceeding estimated population)
  • 250,986 people aged 70-74 (90%)
  • 190,651 people aged 65-69 (64%)
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Footballfirst
13 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

 

Revised vaccination data announced, with a couple of changes in movements, a new reporting indicator and something that unless I'm mistaken, just does not make sense.

 

There might be something in this document that explains the counts of the various groups.

 

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccinations-data---technical-note/

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19 hours ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

The less rural areas with a population below 100k. So Midlothian,  East Renfrewshire, Clackmannashire, Inverclyde, West Dumbartonshire, Stirling. 

If I recall correctly, these where all stubborn area to get case rates to drop before Christmas, 

 

Sorry that I took a wee while to get back to you about this. Hopefully analysis is currently being carried out as to why some areas have been more badly affected and why some areas take longer to recover. It probably lies within the domain of socio-economics, taking into account aspects such as deprivation, population density, percentage of population working in factories and other enclosed areas etc., financial ability to take time off work if isolating and no income, inter-personal behaviour and mixing, etc. I don't personally have those analytical skills, but I am sure that good lessons can be learned by those who do have them and who carry out the right studies.

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scott herbertson
44 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Sorry that I took a wee while to get back to you about this. Hopefully analysis is currently being carried out as to why some areas have been more badly affected and why some areas take longer to recover. It probably lies within the domain of socio-economics, taking into account aspects such as deprivation, population density, percentage of population working in factories and other enclosed areas etc., financial ability to take time off work if isolating and no income, inter-personal behaviour and mixing, etc. I don't personally have those analytical skills, but I am sure that good lessons can be learned by those who do have them and who carry out the right studies.

 

 

Could be as simple as public transport - in urban areas there is little choice for many folk but to use buses - not so much in rural areas where car use or shopping local on foot is probably more frequent

 

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The Real Maroonblood
1 hour ago, redjambo said:

The most recent 7-day stats. The recovery honeymoon may be (hopefully temporarily) over, with case increases particularly at the top of the table. Hopefully vaccinations will mean that these extra cases won't convert into hospitalisations and deaths to the extent they have done previously.

 

    Pre- 7-day per-100,000 cases                
Council Area Tier Lockdown Today Yesterday     15 Feb 14 Feb 13 Feb 12 Feb 11 Feb ... 20 Dec
Scotland     108 102 +6   103 110 104 104 105 ... 98
East Ayrshire 4 3 331 312 +19   319 316 284 254 204 ... 153
Clackmannanshire 4 3 231 233 -2   229 221 227 211 208 ... 148
West Dunbartonshire 4 3 228 219 +9   227 224 201 182 183 ... 120
Falkirk 4 2 214 187 +27   196 205 190 183 186 ... 60
West Lothian 4 3 192 177 +15   164 152 100 106 106 ... 83
Renfrewshire 4 3 183 168 +15   159 166 147 152 137 ... 116
North Lanarkshire 4 3 170 146 +24   149 167 161 160 162 ... 119
Stirling 4 3 163 157 +6   159 165 160 153 158 ... 70
South Lanarkshire 4 3 147 141 +6   146 151 150 147 145 ... 120
Glasgow City 4 3 137 131 +6   133 153 144 145 149 ... 129
North Ayrshire 4 3 132 134 -2   135 144 135 129 136 ... 175
Midlothian 4 3 110 107 +3   97 100 98 98 96 ... 136
East Renfrewshire 4 3 106 103 +3   109 127 106 106 120 ... 101
Na h-Eileanan Siar 4 1 105 112 -7   116 124 116 124 101 ... 22
Inverclyde 4 2 94 100 -6   104 100 99 104 93 ... 59
Moray 4 1 75 75 0   67 78 72 77 75 ... 13
Edinburgh City 4 3 69 62 +7   60 62 61 63 63 ... 109
East Dunbartonshire 4 3 67 56 +11   69 83 83 96 104 ... 70
East Lothian 4 3 66 63 +3   58 78 73 81 82 ... 148
Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 64 70 -6   73 86 87 93 101 ... 32
South Ayrshire 4 3 63 67 -4   72 85 91 94 103 ... 98
Highland 4/3 1 61 56 +5   58 62 59 61 66 ... 17
Fife 4 3 60 62 -2   56 55 53 52 49 ... 97
Perth & Kinross 4 3 56 59 -3   55 64 71 59 59 ... 126
Red Angus 4 2 54 53 +1   53 61 67 79 94 ... 37
Argyll & Bute 4/3 2 45 50 -5   68 79 83 87 98 ... 29
Dundee City 4 3 43 40 +3   38 40 40 54 70 ... 113
Aberdeenshire 4 3 40 40 0   45 49 49 41 48 ... 88
Aberdeen City 4 3 36 33 +3   35 41 43 40 47 ... 163
Scottish Borders 4 1 31 27 +4   29 29 31 35 36 ... 85
Orkney Islands 3 1 22 27 -5   27 27 27 27 18 ... 0
Shetland Islands 3 1 0 0 0   4 4 9 9 9 ... 0
                           
                           
7-day averages                          
Tests     18318 17622 +696   17424 18373 17754 17137 17531 ... 16839
Positivity rate %     5.4 5.3 +0.1   5.4 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 ... 5.2
Hospital (non-ICU)     1322 1352 -30   1384 1418 1455 1494 1539 ... 975
ICU     106 108 -2   109 110 111 112 113 ... 50
Deaths     40 38 +2   39 40 40 40 40 ... 25
All Vaccinations     48864 52109 -3245   56064 55497 55852 53631 51262    
1st Dose     47786 51412 -3626   55481 54930 55288 53016 50629    
2nd Dose     1078 697 +381   583 567 564 615 633    

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48 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

Wouldn't dream of it.

 

“My conclusion from that is if you’re driven by the data and not by dates, right now, you should be looking at earlier unlocking.” Prof Woolhouse (autocorrected to Woodhouse in my previous post)

 

Maybe listening to the experts is the way to go afterall. I'm guessing this is one of the experts we're not supposed to listen to though.

 

Yes but there is the "convenient data" effect. You have the outcome you want then you find the justification for it. That may be the R rate, 7 day rates, daily rates, dodgy dossiers on hospitality venues etc etc. If anything doesn't fit, you discard it until it does.  Finally, if in a tier system, one area meets all the criteria to move down a level you simply cite the worry of people travelling from elsewhere to enjoy the looser restrictions.  Permanent lockdown - easy.

Meanwhile,  cancer ops are being cancelled,  people are being paid to do nothing , mental health is suffering and businesses are on their last legs. 

 

 

 

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Brighton Jambo

If restriction removal is to be based on data and not dates, which seems sensible to me, we should expect The SG government to lift restrictions here quicker than England given we keep being told repeatedly that we have a lower prevalence and infection rate up here.  

 

If we take a more severe approach than the data recommends and despite harsher restrictions hopefully opposition parties campaign on a platform of easing restrictions sooner based on science.  That should test the loyalty of some of the softer SNP supporters.  
 

 

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1 hour ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

Could be as simple as public transport - in urban areas there is little choice for many folk but to use buses - not so much in rural areas where car use or shopping local on foot is probably more frequent

 

 

Good point.

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Nucky Thompson
17 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

If restriction removal is to be based on data and not dates, which seems sensible to me, we should expect The SG government to lift restrictions here quicker than England given we keep being told repeatedly that we have a lower prevalence and infection rate up here.  

 

If we take a more severe approach than the data recommends and despite harsher restrictions hopefully opposition parties campaign on a platform of easing restrictions sooner based on science.  That should test the loyalty of some of the softer SNP supporters.  
 

 

They'll just interpret the data to suit, just like the daily percentage positivity is always higher than the actual percentage of cases carried out.

Today the positivity rate was reported as 5.2%, but 1121 positive cases out of 24,343 new tests works out as 4.6%.

Simple arithmetic 

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Footballfirst
28 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

If restriction removal is to be based on data and not dates, which seems sensible to me, we should expect The SG government to lift restrictions here quicker than England given we keep being told repeatedly that we have a lower prevalence and infection rate up here.  

 

If we take a more severe approach than the data recommends and despite harsher restrictions hopefully opposition parties campaign on a platform of easing restrictions sooner based on science.  That should test the loyalty of some of the softer SNP supporters.  
 

 

The case rates north and south of the border are beginning to converge once again, with Scotland accounting for just under 7% of the UK's total (against 8.2% of the population).

 

Scotland has only exceeded its population share of cases for two short periods throughout the pandemic. Those were the first week of April and the last week of September.  Other than than the cases have averaged around 4.8% of the UK total.

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Brighton Jambo
5 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

You mean like starting the phased return to school earlier, that sort of restrictions easing?

Yes you are right for primary 1-3 but then the rest of schools which is the significant majority of kids going back later.  That sort of slower easing despite the infection rate and prevalence allegedly being lower.  Surely if we were going to capitalise on doing better than England it would be in enabling kids back to school before not after England.  
 

edit:  especially as the school year ends a month earlier up here meaning our kids have less time to catch up.  

Edited by Brighton Jambo
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Dennis Reynolds
3 hours ago, redjambo said:

 

It was a "senior Whitehall source" who leaked the news. It has been reported in a few places. Such before-the-fact leaks tend to be the authorities' way of preparing us for bad news before it happens, although not necessarily so. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/16/covidlockdown-continue-cases-drop-1000-day/

 

Ahh I see. Yeah they do love a leak to guage reactions.

 

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Brighton Jambo
9 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

English schools are not definitely going back surely? That would then be date and not data driven!  

We will find out on Monday.  

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Nucky Thompson
26 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

There were 1211 New cases reported today, there were 24,343 Total daily tests reported today, there were 1,254 total number of positive tests reported. It is the positive tests reported that gives you the Test Positivity %

 

From the data released.

 

iii) the total number of COVID-19 tests with results in the Health Protection Scotland ECOSS system reported to HPS by the laboratories in the 24 hours from 08:00 to 08:00 that day. This figure is higher than the number of people tested, as people could have more than one test.

 

What's the difference between 1121 new positive cases reported today and 1254 total number of positive tests reported today??

Every other country reports new positive cases out of the total number of new tests that reported a result. Easy peasy 

 

Edit. It looks like Scotland takes the positivity percentage from all positive tests reported, even if they are not new cases and someone tests positive multiple times

Edited by Nucky Thompson
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If this is to be the last ever lockdown the indicator levels will need to be significantly stricter than last time. when tiering was introduced.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Brighton Jambo said:

If restriction removal is to be based on data and not dates, which seems sensible to me, we should expect The SG government to lift restrictions here quicker than England given we keep being told repeatedly that we have a lower prevalence and infection rate up here.  

 

If we take a more severe approach than the data recommends and despite harsher restrictions hopefully opposition parties campaign on a platform of easing restrictions sooner based on science.  That should test the loyalty of some of the softer SNP supporters.  
 

 

 

The data is neutral, it doesn't rccommend anything, nor does it predetermine the political decision making. How we decide to move out of lockdown is up to the SG and they will base their decision making on Scottish priorities. The prevalence and changing levels of infection are different too so the devolved governments will make decsions appropriate to their circumstances but also in keeping with their aspirations. We also do not readily have the benefit of the CRG/ERG influence and expertise to inform our decision making. 

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1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Yes you are right for primary 1-3 but then the rest of schools which is the significant majority of kids going back later.  That sort of slower easing despite the infection rate and prevalence allegedly being lower.  Surely if we were going to capitalise on doing better than England it would be in enabling kids back to school before not after England.  
 

edit:  especially as the school year ends a month earlier up here meaning our kids have less time to catch up.  


I don’t think the rest of the school years will go back until after Easter which is ridiculous, considering the danger of the virus to kids. 

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1 hour ago, Lord BJ said:


That’s a bit of an assumption, depends on the trigger point for schools going back is.
 

The data may well be at level where schools might return. r number is below one, cases dropping pretty quickly and vaccinating numbers like we’ve never seen before. I’ll be honest, if any headroom to be used it should be utilised to get kids back in to education.

 

Would love my kids to be at school. 
 

The driven by data not dates, is little more than catchphrase for politicians coined by a scientist. We followed science last time and science tends to like data, as opposed to dates. 
 

As an aside I tend to agree with you. We’re getting ahead of ourselves assuming we (Scotland) will be slower to ease restrictions, albeit past history and the messaging from yesterday properly supports that view but we are ahead of England but no idea about Wakes or NI, as no one seems to make those comparison to them for some reason. 
 

The truth of the matter is Scotland, England and UK in general have followed the same strategy. There has been some tweaking round edges due to timings of when things peaked, by in large it’s been the same. Not all that surprising as advise coming from sane source, joint discussions and agreements etc, 
 

The people focusing on the difference are generally into petty point scoring underpinned by the fixation on binary debate that happened....... I can’t even remember how many years it was now. 
 

I find it pretty tedious, but hey many more seem to revel in it. 
 

Also this rambling post ain’t aimed at you, more just a general observation inspired by pain killers and booze. 👍


You need more pain killers and booze if it leads to excellent posts like this. 

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Governor Tarkin
23 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:


Trapped nerve problems still :sob:
 

 

 

Not so good. :(

 

I see old Vlad has popped his conning tower above the surf again to plead poverty. Maybe he could sort you out a few sessions with Rema and her golden stick for a small fee.

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Footballfirst

I had a look back at the weekly vaccination numbers for the first few weeks in order to gauge the number of 2nd doses that will need to be administered over the next few weeks.

 

The weekly reports covered the periods up to 10th January.

w/e 13/12  Cumulative 1st doses 18,734 - 2nd doses due by 7th March

w/e 20/12  Cumulative 1st doses 58,800 - 2nd doses due by 14th March

w/e 27/12  Cumulative 1st doses 92,324 - 2nd doses due by 21st March

w/e 03/01  Cumulative 1st doses 113,459 - 2nd doses due by 28th March

w/e 10/01  Cumulative 1st doses 163,377 - 2nd doses due by 4th April

 

20,409 2nd doses have been administered thus far, so there should be little problem achieving the early March deadlines.

 

On a personal note, my wife had her first dose on 12 December and is due to get her second tomorrow (with a couple of weeks to spare), while I get my first next week.

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2 hours ago, Nookie Bear said:


You need more pain killers and booze if it leads to excellent posts like this. 

😄:)👍😄

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7 hours ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Yes but there is the "convenient data" effect. You have the outcome you want then you find the justification for it. That may be the R rate, 7 day rates, daily rates, dodgy dossiers on hospitality venues etc etc. If anything doesn't fit, you discard it until it does.  Finally, if in a tier system, one area meets all the criteria to move down a level you simply cite the worry of people travelling from elsewhere to enjoy the looser restrictions.  Permanent lockdown - easy.

Meanwhile,  cancer ops are being cancelled,  people are being paid to do nothing , mental health is suffering and businesses are on their last legs. 

 

 

 

Have a lie Doon mate and take deep breaths. 

You'll feel better 👍

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The Real Maroonblood
5 minutes ago, luckydug said:

Have a lie Doon mate and take deep breaths. 

You'll feel better 👍

Looks like your advice has been taken.

:jjyay:

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