Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )

[Back to 2005]

11 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Sweden is the elephant in the room? Their strategy went tits up and was abandoned. Their cases went through the roof and lockdown was imposed last month.

 

They have marginally tightened their restrictions. Schools, restaurants and pubs remain open. Curve exactly the same as the UK. Same as Florida and numerous other places with minimal restrictions. 

[Nucky Thompson]

14,104 new positive cases in the UK. Down 25.4% over 7 days

333 reported deaths. Down 22.4% over 7 days

2107 people admitted to Hospital. Down 21.8% over 7 days.

 

Boris is going to be under pressure from his back benchers to open up sooner

 

 

[Back to 2005]

12 minutes ago, Weakened Offender said:

 

****ing cheek of you! 😁

 

People still die in car crashes, should we all stop wearing seat belts? 

No we should stop driving all together. Far too risky. 

[Enzo Chiefo]

2 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

No once the main groups are vaccinated ie those over 50 we should then open up . I found this somewhere :   

“ It seems clear to me this nonsense will never end, unless we collectively decide it ends. Mass, peaceful non-compliance and civil disobedience is the only way out. Open your schools and businesses from tomorrow and let's get on with our lives.

The total number of people who died under 45 years old from Covid-19 in Scotland’s hospitals in 2020 (till 24 Dec), with no underlying health conditions was TWO. Another 28 died who had comorbidities. The number of deaths from other, treatable, causes continue to go through the roof, ditto suicides. “ 

Exactly right James.  Once the over 50s are vaccinated, this nonsense has to end. No early finishes, alcohol bans, Scotch eggs, outdoor only madness. Open up businesses and let them trade fully and recuperate their losses. Schools will open and people should be encouraged back to work. The next year should be focussed on the timebomb of mental and physical health that has been so damaged by the series of lockdowns.  The economy, the thousands of dementia patients whose forced isolation has worsened their conditions, schools, jobs, music,sports arts and every other aspect of life that has been affected by this. It was a blunt force instrument that should only have been introduced for a very short period.  There may well be new strains, outbreaks,mild illness and busy hospitals but that is part of life, as it was in previous years. Politicians and scientists have been manipulating the fear and panic that they have instilled in the public. They are now starting to move the goalposts in an attempt to prolong population control measures, while they pursue a mirage of no travel and zero Covid. The world's a dangerous place and people have a right to get on with their lives. Businesses proposing to open en masse, on say 1st May,  would send a strong message to govts that life needs to get back to normal..old normal.

[Back to 2005]

13 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Exactly right James.  Once the over 50s are vaccinated, this nonsense has to end. No early finishes, alcohol bans, Scotch eggs, outdoor only madness. Open up businesses and let them trade fully and recuperate their losses. Schools will open and people should be encouraged back to work. The next year should be focussed on the timebomb of mental and physical health that has been so damaged by the series of lockdowns.  The economy, the thousands of dementia patients whose forced isolation has worsened their conditions, schools, jobs, music,sports arts and every other aspect of life that has been affected by this. It was a blunt force instrument that should only have been introduced for a very short period.  There may well be new strains, outbreaks,mild illness and busy hospitals but that is part of life, as it was in previous years. Politicians and scientists have been manipulating the fear and panic that they have instilled in the public. They are now starting to move the goalposts in an attempt to prolong population control measures, while they pursue a mirage of no travel and zero Covid. The world's a dangerous place and people have a right to get on with their lives. Businesses proposing to open en masse, on say 1st May,  would send a strong message to govts that life needs to get back to normal..old normal.

Totally agree.

I see today there has been calls from senior doctors in to the government handling of the whole shambles, handing out of contracts to family and friends etc.

Meanwhile in Germany there is a corruption scandal brewing. 

Interesting times ahead. Would advise reading the thread of the German one as it all sounds very familiar to the British strategy.

[Ray Gin]

13 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

They have marginally tightened their restrictions. Schools, restaurants and pubs remain open. Curve exactly the same as the UK. Same as Florida and numerous other places with minimal restrictions. 

 

They had over 7k cases a day for a spell before bringing in their measures. Scotland's peaked at 2.3k. 

 

Population Sweden: 10.2 million Density: 25 per km2

Population Scotland: 5.5 million  Density: 65 per km2

 

[frankblack]

3 minutes ago, Back to 2005 said:

Totally agree.

I see today there has been calls from senior doctors in to the government handling of the whole shambles, handing out of contracts to family and friends etc.

Meanwhile in Germany there is a corruption scandal brewing. 

Interesting times ahead. Would advise reading the thread of the German one as it all sounds very familiar to the British strategy.

 

I think the UK government have got one thing right in this entire crisis and that is the vaccinations procurement.

 

The latest deliberate stitch up is the refusal to have quarantine hotels for everyone entering the country bar allowable exceptions (freight, etc).

[Footballfirst]

40 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I don’t think we will go back into the tier system, when they ease restrictions. Think they will have a different route map out this time. 

I would rather that they went to the Levels system. at least many people would be familiar with the restrictions at each level and aware of the sort of changes that could merit a move up or down the levels.

 

Based on the originally published guidelines, Edinburgh would be close to Level 1, 7 day/100k rate below 75 and positivity at 4.2%.  Hospital bed and ICU occupancy rates below the April peaks and falling.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Footballfirst

[sadj]

1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

I’ve not been on this thread in a while.  It’s safe to say the same disagreements on lockdown seem to be raging.

 

I really hope each party lays out a clear route out of the restrictions and what the plans are for hospitality and other key areas ahead of the Scottish elections so people can make a choice on the approach they want.  
 

Twitter chatter (so probably nonsense) is that the Scottish Conservatives are going to lay out an alternative to sturgeons expected road map that will promise to get back to normality sooner including prioritising hospitality and sporting events etc.  Also promising to match UK government approach to borders which will mean people in Scotland can have a foreign holiday this year.  
 

Be interesting to see where that leaves Scottish Labour.  

 

58 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

I'm not sure that a tactic of voting for us and you get the same as the Conservatives does south is going to be very successful. They will still get the Pro-Union vote they have picked up recently but it will not attract Labour or Liberal voters. I also doubt Ross is going to appeal to conservative voters in Scotland more than Ruth Davidson.

 

Do you really think "we'll be a week ahead on removing restrictions" is going to alter the course of a Scottish election?

 

46 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

It’s not my idea I was just reporting what I have been seeing.  
 

I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to get hammered at the Scottish elections so they might was well throw a Hail Mary.  If they could set out a vision that gave Scottish people holidays and a promise of more normality sooner including for example hospitality opening and being able to see more friends and family  sooner then it may tempt some desperate people.

 

Will it stop the SNP winning, not a chance, will it throw a cat amongst the pigeons maybe. 

Sounds more like a desperate attempt to try and get some voters by promising things that may not be doable. 
 

The UK governments approach to borders bit cracked me up. Esp on the back of the last two weeks and people we on here know and their reports of the nature of whats being said to them when ebtering the country. That and the lack of any effort to stop other strains arriving by just not giving a shit about if people are self isolating or not 🤣🙈

[Footballfirst]

Just now, Lord BJ said:

I can’t see them switching the levels like that.

 

What were the rough levels last time? I know multiple metrics and more judgement but just by broad number bands. 

The case level indicators were as below, but there were other factors like the positivity rate and the forecast bed occupancy figures for a couple of weeks ahead.

Level 0	<20
Level 1	20-75
Level 2	75-150
Level 3	150-300
Level 4	300+

[Brighton Jambo]

4 minutes ago, sadj said:

 

 

Sounds more like a desperate attempt to try and get some voters by promising things that may not be doable. 
 

The UK governments approach to borders bit cracked me up. Esp on the back of the last two weeks and people we on here know and their reports of the nature of whats being said to them when ebtering the country. That and the lack of any effort to stop other strains arriving by just not giving a shit about if people are self isolating or not 🤣🙈

I think that is exactly what it is.  But if you believe the polls they will be desperate! 

[Footballfirst]

The next review is due on 18 February, which should confirm the return of school kids up to P3 the following week.

 

I would like to see a date set in early March to signal the end of "Lockdown", will all areas starting initially at Level 3, together with a further commitment to align each local authority at the right "level"  in late March or early April.

 

The restrictions within each Level could be tweaked a bit, but the vaccination programme would be advanced by several weeks before any meaningful relaxation actually comes into effect. 

[Footballfirst]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-55986646

 

A man has been charged in Lanarkshire in connection with an offensive social media tweet about Sir Captain Tom Moore.

[manaliveits105]

hanging is too good for him its a good wash he needs 

[Shanks said no]

27 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

I would rather that they went to the Levels system. at least many people would be familiar with the restrictions at each level and aware of the sort of changes that could merit a move up or down the levels.

 

Based on the originally published guidelines, Edinburgh would be close to Level 1, 7 day/100k rate below 75 and positivity at 4.2%.  Hospital bed and ICU occupancy rates below the April peaks and falling.

 

I think Level 2 is the best we can hope for, West Lothian once again will be used against Edinburgh

[The Real Maroonblood]

3 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

 

I think Level 2 is the best we can hope for, West Lothian once again will be used against Edinburgh

Which would prove the Tier system is a waste of time if it isn't implemented properly. 

[Weakened Offender]

18 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The next review is due on 18 February, which should confirm the return of school kids up to P3 the following week.

 

I would like to see a date set in early March to signal the end of "Lockdown", will all areas starting initially at Level 3, together with a further commitment to align each local authority at the right "level"  in late March or early April.

 

The restrictions within each Level could be tweaked a bit, but the vaccination programme would be advanced by several weeks before any meaningful relaxation actually comes into effect. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if all the primary school aged kids were going back by then. The cases are falling and the vaccinations are well ahead of the game. 

[Shanks said no]

7 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

Which would prove the Tier system is a waste of time if it isn't implemented properly. 

 

Not disagreeing but as it hasn't been implemented properly to date, I see no reason why it will be in the future. As NHS Lothian covers 4 (I think) smaller areas and 3 of the 4 are not yet close to 75, then I can't see Edinburgh getting Level 1.

 

Would love to be wrong as Level 2 changes very little in our household.

 

I tend to steer clear of politics but the up coming election may be an additional factor in the SG thinking.

Edited February 8, 2021 by The Frenchman Returns

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 minutes ago, The Frenchman Returns said:

 

Not disagreeing but as it hasn't been implemented properly to date, I see no reason why it will be in the future. As NHS Lothian covers 4 (I think) smaller areas and 3 of the 4 are not yet close to 75, then I can't see Edinburgh getting Level 1.

 

Would love to be wrong as Level 2 changes very little our household.

 

I tend to steer clear of politics but the up coming election may be an additional factor in the SG thinking.

That's fair enough.

[Back to 2005]

1 hour ago, Ray Gin said:

 

They had over 7k cases a day for a spell before bringing in their measures. Scotland's peaked at 2.3k. 

 

Population Sweden: 10.2 million Density: 25 per km2

Population Scotland: 5.5 million  Density: 65 per km2

 

Sweden 12k deaths Scotland 6.5k

Sweden living almost normally. Scotland house arrest for 6 months. 

Massive economic damage. Massive impact on other health issues and mental health. 

Why people find this acceptable is beyond me .

[Nucky Thompson]

I get the vibe from the UK briefing that they are not overly worried about the AZ study into the South African variant.

JVT very informative 

[JudyJudyJudy]

1 hour ago, Back to 2005 said:

Same is happening all over the world no matter what the severity of the lockdown. I appreciate Sweden is the elephant in the room but...

Sorry but saying things would have been worse does not cut it any more. How many have died because of the lockdowns? 

 

1 hour ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

Exactly right James.  Once the over 50s are vaccinated, this nonsense has to end. No early finishes, alcohol bans, Scotch eggs, outdoor only madness. Open up businesses and let them trade fully and recuperate their losses. Schools will open and people should be encouraged back to work. The next year should be focussed on the timebomb of mental and physical health that has been so damaged by the series of lockdowns.  The economy, the thousands of dementia patients whose forced isolation has worsened their conditions, schools, jobs, music,sports arts and every other aspect of life that has been affected by this. It was a blunt force instrument that should only have been introduced for a very short period.  There may well be new strains, outbreaks,mild illness and busy hospitals but that is part of life, as it was in previous years. Politicians and scientists have been manipulating the fear and panic that they have instilled in the public. They are now starting to move the goalposts in an attempt to prolong population control measures, while they pursue a mirage of no travel and zero Covid. The world's a dangerous place and people have a right to get on with their lives. Businesses proposing to open en masse, on say 1st May,  would send a strong message to govts that life needs to get back to normal..old normal.

👍

38 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I can’t see them switching the levels like that.

 

What were the rough levels last time? I know multiple metrics and more judgement but just by broad number bands. 

You used the word " cautious" in your next posting. Thats  Sturgeons favorite word...

[Victorian]

It will be a tier system but nothing like the existing tier detail.  They'll seperate out the non essential retail aspects from hospitality.  There will be clear daylight between the opening up of retail,  etc and any opening of hospitality.  Probably at least a month.  It might even be that decisions on hospitality are entirely separate.  

 

 

[Weakened Offender]

1 minute ago, jonesy said:

 It’s easier than having to think

 

It's working a treat for you too pal, you know you best. 👍

[Weakened Offender]

4 minutes ago, jonesy said:

Early March? Fingers crossed. 

 

End February, beginning of March wouldn't surprise me. 

[frankblack]

36 minutes ago, Footballfirst said:

The next review is due on 18 February, which should confirm the return of school kids up to P3 the following week.

 

I would like to see a date set in early March to signal the end of "Lockdown", will all areas starting initially at Level 3, together with a further commitment to align each local authority at the right "level"  in late March or early April.

 

The restrictions within each Level could be tweaked a bit, but the vaccination programme would be advanced by several weeks before any meaningful relaxation actually comes into effect. 

 

I hope so too, but fear they need to get a handle on the SA strain down south before that can happen.

[Weakened Offender]

Just now, jonesy said:

Just following your lead, pal.

 

😁

[luckydug]

3 hours ago, Malinga the Swinga said:

Still believe that we are going about this wrong way round. Protecting folk aged 70, 80, 90 and above to allow them to live a few more months while younger generations see their jobs, careers and futures torn to ribbons without any concern as to how this will all be paid back in long run. 

Should have vaccinated those working, students and front line staff way before the oldies, but we made decision and future generations will suffer because of it. 

Those with their pensions protected certainly won't want to be inconvenienced by reducing their income but will be happy to see others work on, way beyond when they themselves retired, but that is what happens when country run by old folk. 

Speaking as someone approaching 60, I find my parents generation to be one of the most selfish groups, who having created the environment that brought Climate change, now are happy to sit back and watch others suffer again to benefit them. 

Hardly selfish when they were forced to defend our way of life. 

My Dad fought in Burma and although he survived he was physically and emotionally ruined  when he came back. 

If you are nearly sixty your parents would have suffered from wartime as well. 

Think before you post. 

[Footballfirst]

The criteria for the allocation of levels can be found in the attached document.

 

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/10/coronavirus-covid-19-allocation-of-levels-to-local-authorities/documents/covid-19-indicators/covid-19-indicators/govscot%3Adocument/Covid%2Bindicators%2B-%2BSlidepack%2B29%2BOct%2B1051.pdf?forceDownload=true

 

The five indicators used have the following measures. The first two are actuals and the latter three are forecasts.

At today's figures, Edinburgh would be at Level 3, because of the test positivity rate.  One way to get it down would be for a hundred Edinburgh citizens, who don't have the virus, to turn up and get tested each day.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Footballfirst

[frankblack]

1 minute ago, luckydug said:

Hardly selfish when they were forced to defend our way of life. 

My Dad fought in Burma and although he survived he was physically and emotionally ruined  when he came back. 

If you are nearly sixty your parents would have suffered from wartime as well. 

Think before you post. 

 

My Grandad fought in Burma too, and was a POW - 6ft 2" and came out at 4 stone when the camp was liberated.  I was always brought up to remember and respect the sacrifices of the older generations.

[Nucky Thompson]

6 minutes ago, frankblack said:

 

I hope so too, but fear they need to get a handle on the SA strain down south before that can happen.

JVT is not really worried about the SA strain and he doesn't think it will be more dominant than the Kent variant.

He didn't sound happy about the 'scary' or 'panic' headlines that we are seeing

[frankblack]

Just now, Nucky Thompson said:

JVT is not really worried about the SA strain and he doesn't think it will be more dominant than the Kent variant.

He didn't sound happy about the 'scary' or 'panic' headlines that we are seeing

 

They have been running with panic headlines and project fear on the BBC and other news services since the start of last year.

[Footballfirst]

This was the initial allocation of levels for each local authority area.

 

  

[Back to 2005]

20 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

JVT is not really worried about the SA strain and he doesn't think it will be more dominant than the Kent variant.

He didn't sound happy about the 'scary' or 'panic' headlines that we are seeing

That's rich seeing as him and his Sage mates are responsible for demanding we all panic.

[Nucky Thompson]

1 minute ago, Back to 2005 said:

That's rich seeing as him and his Sage mates are responsible for demanding we all panic.

He's the most positive out of all of them, I find him down to earth.

The rest of them enjoy being on the TV and love their 5 minutes of fame 

That Calum Semple is worst of the lot, a dour faced twat 

[sadj]

43 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

I get the vibe from the UK briefing that they are not overly worried about the AZ study into the South African variant.

JVT very informative 

Thats where you have to ignore their word and South Africas word and just take a middle line somewhere. Theres been plenty said today about the UK government suppressing the accurate info on vaccines. There is most likely some truth in it but unlikely its as bad as people are claiming.  As with most politics you can’t take what any of them say as gospel. 

[CavySlaveJambo]

The study was small scale and also has not yet been peer-reviewed.   
 

It is the same reason that some European Countries will not approve the AZ/Oxford vaccine for older age groups. (The size of the study cohort) 

[Mikey1874]

Not admitting to microchips 

 

 

[sadj]

15 minutes ago, CavySlaveJambo said:

The study was small scale and also has not yet been peer-reviewed.   
 

It is the same reason that some European Countries will not approve the AZ/Oxford vaccine for older age groups. (The size of the study cohort) 

The study before it was approved?

[Victorian]

4 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

I think it will be and I’m not convinced we see hospitality allowed to sell alchol any time soon. I think it might be a longer wait than people would like, probably summer. 
 

Don’t think it will be based on numbers  much as confidence around onward transmission, all under 50’s jabbed up or some stuff like that. 

 

 

I think the initial easing of restrictions back to a tier system will be a sort of transitional period when they'll be closely studying the effect on the case rates and associated hospital statistics,  but also to study the epidemiological benefits of the vaccines and the direction of travel of the various virus variants.  It could well be that particular versions of 'opening up' will cause different outcomes regarding any rising of infections and even on whether the SA variant becomes widespread.  It looks like a very complicated set of scenarios.

 

I'm not expecting hospitality open to a tier 1 standard until about the end of April and maybe the end of May.  The previous early pub curfew will also be a severe problem to solve.

[Mikey1874]

Its still the case everyone is confident the vaccine prevents serious illness. 

[Nucky Thompson]

16 minutes ago, sadj said:

Thats where you have to ignore their word and South Africas word and just take a middle line somewhere. Theres been plenty said today about the UK government suppressing the accurate info on vaccines. There is most likely some truth in it but unlikely its as bad as people are claiming.  As with most politics you can’t take what any of them say as gospel. 

Aye, I don't pay any attention to what Hancock says, but Van-Tam is a public health physician.

I don't think he toes the UK government party line and he says it as he sees it

[Nucky Thompson]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

 

 

I'm not expecting hospitality open to a tier 1 standard until about the end of April and maybe the end of May.  The previous early pub curfew will also be a severe problem to solve.

If England open up hospitality in April, Scotland will too.

Elections are in May and I don't think Sturgeon will shoot herself in the foot by keeping Scotland closed when England are open.

I think furlough will be extended for an extra couple of months, until the elections are done and dusted at least

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Nucky Thompson said:

If England open up hospitality in April, Scotland will too.

Elections are in May and I don't think Sturgeon will shoot herself in the foot by keeping Scotland closed when England are open.

I think furlough will be extended for an extra couple of months, until the elections are done and dusted at least

 

Not just hospitality but other sectors will need a different form of furlough for a much longer period.  The economy can't switch back on to full capacity (crucially involving full workforce) in a short time.  Different sectors will recover at different paces.  Furlough will need to evolve into a target specific support scheme in order to prevent more jobs and businesses going.

[Victorian]

A quarter of the UK adult population are jabbed up (1st jab).  A decent milestone a week into February.

[Victorian]

Just now, Barack said:

Are the SG going to hit their 70-75's target by Sunday?

29% done with 6 days left. Be tight.

 

Probably not but I don't think these self imposed targets are that important in the grand scheme.  As long as the total number of vaccinations sustains at a similar level to recent days then that will be good enough.

[Toxteth O'Grady]

1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

This was the initial allocation of levels for each local authority area.

 

  

I can’t see them following the same system unless the UK Treasury switches off funding. It will be schools opening  then wait to see what happens before anything else opens. Personally I can do without retail and hospitality but not leaving Edinburgh Council area is doing my head in.

[Toxteth O'Grady]

1 hour ago, Footballfirst said:

This was the initial allocation of levels for each local authority area.

 

  

I can’t see them following the same system unless the UK Treasury switches off funding. It will be schools opening  then wait to see what happens before anything else opens. Personally I can do without retail and hospitality but not leaving Edinburgh Council area is doing my head in.

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Barack said:

My Dad was saying, in their area, (Lochearnhead) people are getting phone invites not letters. That a thing, is it?

 

 

 

I had heard of one person in Forth Valley who was phoned instead of a letter but no idea otherwise.

[The Real Maroonblood]

2 minutes ago, Barack said:

My Dad was saying, in their area, (Lochearnhead) people are getting phone invites not letters. That a thing, is it?

 

 

My surgery (Edinburgh) over 75’s getting a phone call.