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The Real Maroonblood
29 minutes ago, redjambo said:

The latest 7-day per-capita case rates around the councils, based on reporting date.

 

      7-day per-100,000 cases            
Council Area Tier Previous Today Yesterday     13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan ... 20 Dec
Scotland     240 245 -5   262 264 275 ... 98
Inverclyde 4 2 370 389 -19   411 401 428 ... 59
Glasgow City 4 3 363 374 -11   383 380 383 ... 129
North Lanarkshire 4 3 357 362 -5   395 393 396 ... 119
Renfrewshire 4 3 324 323 +1   366 386 393 ... 116
East Dunbartonshire 4 3 305 286 +19   279 269 283 ... 70
Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 297 322 -25   334 348 376 ... 32
North Ayrshire 4 3 289 304 -15   320 337 324 ... 175
South Lanarkshire 4 3 278 289 -11   299 281 311 ... 120
West Dunbartonshire 4 3 277 272 +5   250 244 268 ... 120
East Ayrshire 4 3 276 269 +7   289 298 311 ... 153
Clackmannanshire 4 3 264 233 +31   248 229 262 ... 148
Dundee City 4 3 261 273 -12   313 313 344 ... 113
Aberdeen City 4 3 257 254 +3   250 266 272 ... 163
Falkirk 4 2 231 232 -1   265 272 289 ... 60
South Ayrshire 4 3 226 218 +8   228 251 251 ... 98
Perth and Kinross 4 3 222 236 -14   249 245 264 ... 126
Scottish Borders 4 1 213 209 +4   241 261 260 ... 85
East Renfrewshire 4 3 203 204 -1   214 226 228 ... 101
Fife 4 3 196 199 -3   215 208 218 ... 97
Highland 4/3 1 184 174 +10   187 199 214 ... 17
Angus 4 2 176 176 0   202 222 245 ... 37
Aberdeenshire 4 3 174 186 -12   221 222 245 ... 88
Edinburgh City 4 3 170 171 -1   192 189 206 ... 109
West Lothian 4 3 166 151 +15   164 158 150 ... 83
Stirling 4 3 138 141 -3   159 157 176 ... 70
Midlothian 4 3 127 119 +8   151 156 170 ... 136
Moray 4 1 118 120 -2   135 142 154 ... 13
East Lothian 4 3 99 93 +6   108 113 130 ... 148
Argyll and Bute 4/3 2 86 85 +1   84 87 86 ... 29
Shetland Islands 3 1 83 74 +9   96 135 109 ... 0
Na h-Eileanan Siar 3 1 52 56 -4   30 30 19 ... 22
Orkney Islands 3 1 18 18 0   18 27 27 ... 0

👍

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15 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

So case numbers are not dropping in any material way yet we have been in full lockdown for well over two weeks.  
 

I can’t see any reason why the numbers are suddenly going to start dropping to a level where we can change restrictions.  

The positivity rate has gradually reduced from 15% , 2 weeks ago, to 7.5% today. At 5%, it is deemed to be "under control". Like R though, the positivity rate only seems to be highlighted when it goes up

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19 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

So case numbers are not dropping in any material way yet we have been in full lockdown for well over two weeks.  
 

I can’t see any reason why the numbers are suddenly going to start dropping to a level where we can change restrictions.  

 

Case numbers never drop dramatically. If you look over the case curves so far, you will see that rises tend to be sharp and the declines tend to be gradual, very much at times. Once a virus gets a hold within a population, it's much more difficult to stop it than it is for that virus to spread in the first place.

 

We just have to give it time. The vaccinations will help.

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Dagger Is Back
50 minutes ago, redjambo said:

The latest 7-day per-capita case rates around the councils, based on reporting date.

 

      7-day per-100,000 cases            
Council Area Tier Previous Today Yesterday     13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan ... 20 Dec
Scotland     240 245 -5   262 264 275 ... 98
Inverclyde 4 2 370 389 -19   411 401 428 ... 59
Glasgow City 4 3 363 374 -11   383 380 383 ... 129
North Lanarkshire 4 3 357 362 -5   395 393 396 ... 119
Renfrewshire 4 3 324 323 +1   366 386 393 ... 116
East Dunbartonshire 4 3 305 286 +19   279 269 283 ... 70
Dumfries & Galloway 4 1 297 322 -25   334 348 376 ... 32
North Ayrshire 4 3 289 304 -15   320 337 324 ... 175
South Lanarkshire 4 3 278 289 -11   299 281 311 ... 120
West Dunbartonshire 4 3 277 272 +5   250 244 268 ... 120
East Ayrshire 4 3 276 269 +7   289 298 311 ... 153
Clackmannanshire 4 3 264 233 +31   248 229 262 ... 148
Dundee City 4 3 261 273 -12   313 313 344 ... 113
Aberdeen City 4 3 257 254 +3   250 266 272 ... 163
Falkirk 4 2 231 232 -1   265 272 289 ... 60
South Ayrshire 4 3 226 218 +8   228 251 251 ... 98
Perth and Kinross 4 3 222 236 -14   249 245 264 ... 126
Scottish Borders 4 1 213 209 +4   241 261 260 ... 85
East Renfrewshire 4 3 203 204 -1   214 226 228 ... 101
Fife 4 3 196 199 -3   215 208 218 ... 97
Highland 4/3 1 184 174 +10   187 199 214 ... 17
Angus 4 2 176 176 0   202 222 245 ... 37
Aberdeenshire 4 3 174 186 -12   221 222 245 ... 88
Edinburgh City 4 3 170 171 -1   192 189 206 ... 109
West Lothian 4 3 166 151 +15   164 158 150 ... 83
Stirling 4 3 138 141 -3   159 157 176 ... 70
Midlothian 4 3 127 119 +8   151 156 170 ... 136
Moray 4 1 118 120 -2   135 142 154 ... 13
East Lothian 4 3 99 93 +6   108 113 130 ... 148
Argyll and Bute 4/3 2 86 85 +1   84 87 86 ... 29
Shetland Islands 3 1 83 74 +9   96 135 109 ... 0
Na h-Eileanan Siar 3 1 52 56 -4   30 30 19 ... 22
Orkney Islands 3 1 18 18 0   18 27 27 ... 0

Thank you again. Tuesday is not going to be a SG briefing worth looking forward to

Edited by Dagger Is Back
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2 hours ago, Candy said:

Reinsurers

🤣

 

4 minutes ago, Enzo Chiefo said:

The positivity rate has gradually reduced from 15% , 2 weeks ago, to 7.5% today. At 5%, it is deemed to be "under control". Like R though, the positivity rate only seems to be highlighted when it goes up

Not sure what you’ve seen but R number seems to get reported quite a lot. They were talking about parts of England possibly being back under 1. Not sure if positivity is a good measure as I am assuming that will vary by how many folk are tested as much as anything. If that is the case You could have a townsworth of people sending away for the free test all knowing its unlikely they have it but wanting to be on the safe side. 

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1 minute ago, Dagger Is Back said:

Thank you again. Tuesday is not going to be a SG worth looking forward to

 

No problem. I don't understand your second comment though - are they revisiting the tiers on Tuesday or something?

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William H. Bonney
Just now, redjambo said:

 

No problem. I don't understand your second comment though - are they revisiting the tiers on Tuesday or something?

 

They are meeting to discuss schools on Tuesday. 

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2 minutes ago, sadj said:

🤣

 

Not sure what you’ve seen but R number seems to get reported quite a lot. They were talking about parts of England possibly being back under 1. Not sure if positivity is a good measure as I am assuming that will vary by how many folk are tested as much as anything. If that is the case You could have a townsworth of people sending away for the free test all knowing its unlikely they have it but wanting to be on the safe side. 

 

One of the reasons I've always been sceptical about the usefulness of the positivity indicator, sadj.

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Just now, sadj said:

🤣

 

Not sure what you’ve seen but R number seems to get reported quite a lot. They were talking about parts of England possibly being back under 1. Not sure if positivity is a good measure as I am assuming that will vary by how many folk are tested as much as anything. If that is the case You could have a townsworth of people sending away for the free test all knowing its unlikely they have it but wanting to be on the safe side. 

Tbh it's the number of cases that is less important.  The more you test the more you will find, as one famous US President said.😄

The rate is the figure that is deemed more significant and we seem to be on a downward trajectory

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Just now, Furious Styles said:

 

They are meeting to discuss schools on Tuesday. 

 

Ah, cheers. Didn't know that. Should be an interesting meeting. I can only hope that whatever they do, they make the right decisions for the right reasons. I imagine that it has been debated on here recently, but personally, I would hold off for a few weeks. That requires however that online learning can adequately replace in-person teaching. If it can't, then that makes the decision more difficult.

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Dagger Is Back
1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

No problem. I don't understand your second comment though - are they revisiting the tiers on Tuesday or something?

 

Sorry I hit enter when I got distracted.

 

I'm sure Tuesday is the day they'll announce what is happening in terms of re-opening schools. I can't see any chance of schools going back in February - double whammy for me as my business is on ice until they do go back and Miss DIB is doing her dance college studies from our front room, which as you can imagine is not going at all well.

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1 minute ago, Dagger Is Back said:

 

Sorry I hit enter when I got distracted.

 

I'm sure Tuesday is the day they'll announce what is happening in terms of re-opening schools. I can't see any chance of schools going back in February - double whammy for me as my business is on ice until they do go back and Miss DIB is doing her dance college studies from our front room, which as you can imagine is not going at all well.

 

Yup, difficult decisions ahead, that's for sure DiB. Sorry to hear that it effects you personally in more ways than one.

 

Out of interest, why aren't the remote dance college studies going well? Is there just too much of a practical hands-on element that can't be taught remotely?

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Dagger Is Back
1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

Yup, difficult decisions ahead, that's for sure DiB. Sorry to hear that it effects you personally in more ways than one.

 

Out of interest, why aren't the remote dance college studies going well? Is there just too much of a practical hands-on element that can't be taught remotely?

 

Thank you. Ach we're fine compared to lots of folks out there. The business will just start up again when it's safe to do so and I've got no problems with the strategy of lockdown despite differing opinions on it's effectiveness. I'm happy to sit tight and wait for the vaccine to arrive.

 

In terms of dancing, there are a few challenges - space being the major one.  We've got a nice house and we're lucky, but it doesn't lend itself to cartwheels and let's say, free movement. I've been in touch with a few places to see if we can hire out their facilities but understandably they're all saying no. This is also the time of year when attention turns to end of term exams and shows, and a lot of that is group work which just isn't going to happen.

 

In a three year course, they've lost a fair chuck already and it looks like they'll lose some more.

 

It's been a tough year for all students.

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William H. Bonney
19 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

Ah, cheers. Didn't know that. Should be an interesting meeting. I can only hope that whatever they do, they make the right decisions for the right reasons. I imagine that it has been debated on here recently, but personally, I would hold off for a few weeks. That requires however that online learning can adequately replace in-person teaching. If it can't, then that makes the decision more difficult.


From a purely selfish standpoint I hope schools resume ASAP. If the schools go back, then so does my sons afters school club, which is separate from the school and currently closed. 
Both myself and my partner work full time and trying to negotiate time off for childcare is a nightmare. 

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7 minutes ago, Dagger Is Back said:

 

Thank you. Ach we're fine compared to lots of folks out there. The business will just start up again when it's safe to do so and I've got no problems with the strategy of lockdown despite differing opinions on it's effectiveness. I'm happy to sit tight and wait for the vaccine to arrive.

 

In terms of dancing, there are a few challenges - space being the major one.  We've got a nice house and we're lucky, but it doesn't lend itself to cartwheels and let's say, free movement. I've been in touch with a few places to see if we can hire out their facilities but understandably they're all saying no. This is also the time of year when attention turns to end of term exams and shows, and a lot of that is group work which just isn't going to happen.

 

In a three year course, they've lost a fair chuck already and it looks like they'll lose some more.

 

It's been a tough year for all students.

 

I've just been imagining dancing in our own humble living room. I don't think the light fittings for one would survive more than a minute. Would the local church perhaps allow use of their hall for a donation, or have you tried that already?

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5 minutes ago, Furious Styles said:


From a purely selfish standpoint I hope schools resume ASAP. If the schools go back, then so does my sons afters school club, which is separate from the school and currently closed. 
Both myself and my partner work full time and trying to negotiate time off for childcare is a nightmare. 

 

And that's another reason that the decision's going to be very difficult. Perhaps they might decide to start up the after school clubs before the schools go back because they appreciate that so many folk are in the same situation as you and your partner? Sorry to hear that it's been difficult for you, in any case.

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William H. Bonney
8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

And that's another reason that the decision's going to be very difficult. Perhaps they might decide to start up the after school clubs before the schools go back because they appreciate that so many folk are in the same situation as you and your partner? Sorry to hear that it's been difficult for you, in any case.


It’s our respective employers that have been difficult. Me and millions of other parents I guess. Trying times for many, many people. 

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scott herbertson

A significant milestone with 2 million deaths worldwide

 

Also I believe England will overtake Italy in deaths per capita leaving only Belgium with a worse per capita death rate of countries with over 1 million population worldwide

 

 

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With the R rate above 1 once more it might be that whether we like it or not the 'herd immunity' theory is going to be tested

 

Should the focus then be on the current 'vulnerable areas' of the population and getting all vaccinated that we can

 

Of course this leaves millions who can catch the virus but most not in the vulnerable areas of the population so the vast majority will survive the virus

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Nucky Thompson

Pfizer are delaying vaccine delivery to EU countries and a few of them are up in arms.

 

The UK have played a blinder when it comes to vaccines. Credit where it's due

 

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10 minutes ago, Nucky Thompson said:

Pfizer are delaying vaccine delivery to EU countries and a few of them are up in arms.

 

The UK have played a blinder when it comes to vaccines. Credit where it's due

 

 

According to the FT the UK is also affected along with Norway.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8177df6-04ae-4d20-8e62-ca76589c7653

 

However Poliitco make no mention of the UK or Norway but say it's Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark & Sweden who are to receive reduced supplies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/6-eu-countries-blast-delays-to-biontech-pfizer-vaccine-deliveries/

 

So who to believe or are both correct.

Edited by Jambo-Jimbo
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2 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

According to the FT the UK is also affected along with Norway.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8177df6-04ae-4d20-8e62-ca76589c7653

 

However Poliitco make no mention of the UK or Norway but say it's Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark & Sweden who are to receive reduced supplies.

https://www.politico.eu/article/6-eu-countries-blast-delays-to-biontech-pfizer-vaccine-deliveries/

 

So who to believe or are both correct.

 

I posted the FT link at the same time, Sky news also said the UK would be affected.

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4 minutes ago, fancy a brew said:

 

I posted the FT link at the same time, Sky news also said the UK would be affected.

 

One source says 6 the other say's 2, so it's probably at least 8 European Countries that will be affected and quite probably the whole of Europe will see supplies hit, fortunately it should only be for a short period.

 

Edit: It will hit the EU worse as they only have the Pfizer vaccine, whereas the UK have the Pfizer & AZ/Oxford vaccine.

Edited by Jambo-Jimbo
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Brighton Jambo
21 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

A significant milestone with 2 million deaths worldwide

 

Also I believe England will overtake Italy in deaths per capita leaving only Belgium with a worse per capita death rate of countries with over 1 million population worldwide

 

 

That’s a shocking statistic and the UK government should absolutely be held to account when this is over.   
 

I notice you mention England but not Scotland which seems somewhat unbalanced.  Scotland has the highest per capita death rate of any country in the world with a comparable population (circa £5m).  Equally shocking and I’m sure the Scottish government will be held to the same level of account as Uk government.  

 

 

Edited by Brighton Jambo
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scott herbertson
Just now, Brighton Jambo said:

That’s a shocking statistic and the UK government should absolutely be held to account when this is over.  It’s not true though about only Belgium having more there are at least five other countries with a worse death rate in Europe that UK and with a pop of over 1m.  Still

shocking but let’s not over exaggerate yet. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

I notice you mention England but not Scotland which seems somewhat unbalanced.  Scotland has the highest per capita death rate of any country in the world with a comparable population (circa £5m).  Equally shocking and I’m sure the Scottish government will be held to the same level of account as Uk government.  

 

 

 

Sorry I got that slightly wrong. Slovenia is worse than England (pop 2 million) - there are others worse than UK,  biut not worse than England.

 

Scotland is about 26th in terms of per capita deaths. I agree its shocking (but not equally shocking as England is far worse than Scotland per capita). Scotland is far worse than either Northern Ireland or Ireland for example and it will be right to look at why that should be the case.

 

Re Scotland being the highest compared to countries of a comparable population, both Croatia and Panama are worse (with 4million) as is Switzerland with 8 Million and Bulgaria with 6million

 

So while Scotland is terrible, it does have some company in that respect

 

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1 hour ago, Brighton Jambo said:

So case numbers are not dropping in any material way yet we have been in full lockdown for well over two weeks.  
 

I can’t see any reason why the numbers are suddenly going to start dropping to a level where we can change restrictions.  

 

Look at the curve back in March/April. We saw the same thing. A levelling off for a few weeks before seeing significant drops. 

 

Level instead of flying upwards is a significant change in itself.

 

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Brighton Jambo
4 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

Sorry I got that slightly wrong. Slovenia is worse than England (pop 2 million) - there are others worse than UK,  biut not worse than England.

 

Scotland is about 26th in terms of per capita deaths. I agree its shocking (but not equally shocking as England is far worse than Scotland per capita). Scotland is far worse than either Northern Ireland or Ireland for example and it will be right to look at why that should be the case.

 

Re Scotland being the highest compared to countries of a comparable population, both Croatia and Panama are worse (with 4million) as is Switzerland with 8 Million and Bulgaria with 6million

 

So while Scotland is terrible, it does have some company in that respect

 

Yeah, I realised I had linked to data that was for Uk so tried to edit the post to remove that part as the link shows UK and not separate UK countries.  

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scott herbertson

English vaccination progress is very good re over 80s. Not much has been said about it but there seems to be a bit of variation of approach with the Scottish Government vaccinating care home residents as top priority (therefore not getting to the over 80s as quickly.

 

I'm not sure that's wise on the part of the SG if it is the plan, though only time will tell,

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Brighton Jambo
6 minutes ago, Ray Gin said:

 

Look at the curve back in March/April. We saw the same thing. A levelling off for a few weeks before seeing significant drops. 

 

Level instead of flying upwards is a significant change in itself.

 

Yeah, as someone pointed out the % of number of positive tests is more important than total number of positive tests.  Looking at the graphs in this briefing it does seem we are seeing some drop off.  

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scott herbertson
1 minute ago, Brighton Jambo said:

Yeah, I realised I had linked to data that was for Uk so tried to edit the post to remove that part as the link shows UK and not separate UK countries.  

 

 

No problem - I also got it wrong - easy to do with the mass of data about!

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Brighton Jambo
Just now, scott herbertson said:

 

 

No problem - I also got it wrong - easy to do with the mass of data about!

Yeah, sorry I was a bit premature.  As the missus would tell you thats not unusual.  

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Dagger Is Back
1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

I've just been imagining dancing in our own humble living room. I don't think the light fittings for one would survive more than a minute. Would the local church perhaps allow use of their hall for a donation, or have you tried that already?

 

Ha ha - the light fitting is indeed one of the issues. I've said I'll see what I can do with it at the weekend. That's a great idea. I've tried the churches already - now moving on to Scout Halls and the like

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The Real Maroonblood
9 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Only 10 months too late.

We’ve said that for long enough.

They couldn’t run a bath.

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People read a lot into the death rates as a proportion of population and what that says about the management of the pandemic by governments. But the figures mask so many different variables such as the geography of each country (i.e. densely populated countries bound to be hit worse), the different strains of the virus prevalent in different countries, levels of existing medical conditions in each country etc. 

 

In terms of actual decision-making, the UK and Scottish governments have both made a big call with regard to the gap between administering the doses of the vaccines. It is one that has raised eyebrows in some other countries to say the least and one that Chris Whitty himself accepts is a calculated risk. Only time will tell whether it's the correct call.   

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8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Borders remain open.  Travel corridors are ending.  Everyone will be required to quarantine upon arrival.  Aye right.

Ah yes, that's right. Sorry!

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It will be interesting if the open the schools and only the schools as to whether that actually been causing a big spread all along, or not.

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Nucky Thompson
15 minutes ago, Brian Dundas said:

The 7 day average for +ve tests has fallen by 500 in ten days!! That is falling in a meaningful way, the restrictions are working

Over the last 7 days, UK positive cases have fallen by 13.7% while testing has risen by 22.8%

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Global deaths linked to coronavirus have passed two million - just over a year since it was first identified in China.

The US has recorded the highest number at over 389,000 - and more than 23 million cases, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.

Brazil - where several new variants have recently been identified - is second with over 207,000 deaths.

India and Mexico are next, with roughly 152,000 and 137,000 respectively.

The UK has recorded the fifth-highest death toll - and the highest in Europe - with more than 87,000 deaths recorded within 28 days of a confirmed positive test. Italy follows closely behind with around 80,000.

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After the SG letting slip where vaccine manufacturing centres are, I'm not sure WM will be happy Leitch said on Radio Scotland that the UK exports more mutations of the virus than it imports.

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manaliveits105

Both teatime news programmes led in ICUs again - but STV (toytown tv) surpassed themselves by showing a report on interviews with doctors nurses and patients in ICU to say how bad things were then Kelly -Anne the kiddy on Edinburgh anchorwoman interviewed the reporter who did the report to find out how bad it was ! - cutting edge stuff ! 

(the interview was outside the Glasgow studio in the dark so she aint in Edinburgh by the way definettly)

 

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Captain Sausage

Quick one on the self isolation for incoming people. 

If I needed to go to an embassy to sort a visa for work (have to return to U.K. to get the visa) - is this a valid reason to be outside of your quarantined house/hotel as per government advice? Seems a bit of a grey area. 
 

From the gov.uk website:

In England, you may only leave your place of self-isolation in limited circumstances as set out in the national lockdown rules. Similar restrictions have been introduced in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. 
 

From the lockdown rules:

There are further reasonable excuses. For example, you may leave home to fulfil legal obligations, or to carry out activities related to buying, selling, letting or renting a residential property, for the purpose of picketing, or where it is reasonably necessary for voting in an election or referendum.

 

Edited by Captain Sausage
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Footballfirst
1 hour ago, scott herbertson said:

English vaccination progress is very good re over 80s. Not much has been said about it but there seems to be a bit of variation of approach with the Scottish Government vaccinating care home residents as top priority (therefore not getting to the over 80s as quickly.

 

I'm not sure that's wise on the part of the SG if it is the plan, though only time will tell,

The SG's priorities have been care home residents and health care workers (including NHS, care home and social care workers). In the most recent weekly PHS report, 23,487 care home residents had been vaccinated out of a total of 163k vaccinations carried out.  102K NHS, 25K care home staff and 8K social care staff had all been done in the same period.

 

https://beta.isdscotland.org/find-publications-and-data/population-health/covid-19/covid-19-statistical-report/

 

Looking at the latest Scotland/UK vaccination rates including todays numbers, Scotland has 8.18% of the UK population but has only carried out 6.95% of the UK's total. 

 

In terms of percentages of the population vaccinated, the UK has reported 4.84%, with Scotland lagging with 4.12%.

 

It's early days yet, but I'd be looking for Scotland to get closer to the UK rates.

 

 

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Marked improvement next week on the Scottish vaccine performance or the roof will come down on them.  Early sluggishness is understandable but they need to get the finger out now or they'll deserve an absolute slaughtering.

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  • davemclaren changed the title to Coronavirus Super Thread ( merged )
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