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luckyBatistuta
1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

 


This is probably the best thing I’ve read on this thread. I’ll be sharing it with everyone I know tomorrow morning.

 

Cheers Mikey👏

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4 minutes ago, MrBones said:

I've ordered Hello Fresh. At least we will get food! Hopefully just a cough but also worried this is the start of the rising number of cases where it might be more unusual to not have it soon

Best of luck.

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This may be helpful or sorry unfortunately worrying for asthmatics to determine if you are high risk and need to stay in.

 

My wife has been determined as a key worker but is also asthmatic.  She's on a 30 hour shift just now and won't send it to her to check just yet.

 

I'm now supermarket only but was going to try and do a long walk every day.  Not sure even that is worth it.

 

 

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shaun.lawson
8 hours ago, Victorian said:

If it gets anywhere approaching a final total of 80% infection without sufficient delay measures or advances in treatments it is :

 

500,000+ dead.

Major disaster / terrorist attack / battlefield style triage - letting people die in car parks,  etc.

People dying at home and remaining there for some time.

Bulk expedient management of the deceased - no funeral for your mum or dad.

 

 

Precisely.

 

Yes, plenty of people die each year regardless. But this is as different as it gets. A virus like this will inevitably overwhelm almost all Western healthcare systems, which are just not set up to deal with the kind of numbers we're talking about here.

 

A good mate of mine in Lyon has the virus. He's fit, healthy, in his mid-40s... cannot stop coughing and is having breathing problems. He's been told to self-isolate but call an ambulance if it gets any worse - but many French hospitals are also short of protective equipment and of ventilators. Mulhouse, in eastern France, is like a war zone right now. 

 

And here's the thing. This is really just the start. Exponential growth means that, in realistic scenarios, case numbers double every five days. 5683 now means 11366 in a maximum 5 days from now. Which becomes 22732 five days after that. 45464 five days after that. And we've been told we won't reach the peak for 12 weeks! Just continuing at that rate, the entire population will be infected in the next 3 months - which is why the failure to apply a total lockdown is crazy and indefensible.

 

Take that figure of around 45000 in around two weeks from now - still 10 weeks away from the peak. Around 20% of cases require hospitalisation. The level of capacity - of beds, and ICUs with ventilators - that's going to be required four weeks from now, six weeks from now or eight weeks from now is insane. The UK has 2.5 beds per 1000 people and 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people. By contrast, Germany has 8 beds per 100 people and 29.2 ICU beds per 100,000. And two of the countries most strongly lauded for how they've handled this are Japan and South Korea: who have the highest numbers of beds per head anywhere in the world.

 

Over just the next couple of weeks, healthcare systems in the UK (especially in densely packed, massively populated London) will start to collapse. Many people who would have lived with respiratory and oxygen treatment will instead die. So many others who'd normally get life-saving treatment for other illnesses, accidents or conditions will also die. And people over a certain age and/or with serious underlying conditions will inevitably not receive treatment, as hospital staff prioritise those with better chances of survival. And a good number of those staff are going to start dropping dead too.

 

20,000 deaths wouldn't just be a good outcome. It'd be an astonishing (I think, impossible) outcome. I think we're looking at anywhere between 200,000 and 500,000. And those who survive being traumatised, devastated, for a very, very long time to come.

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luckyBatistuta
26 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Precisely.

 

Yes, plenty of people die each year regardless. But this is as different as it gets. A virus like this will inevitably overwhelm almost all Western healthcare systems, which are just not set up to deal with the kind of numbers we're talking about here.

 

A good mate of mine in Lyon has the virus. He's fit, healthy, in his mid-40s... cannot stop coughing and is having breathing problems. He's been told to self-isolate but call an ambulance if it gets any worse - but many French hospitals are also short of protective equipment and of ventilators. Mulhouse, in eastern France, is like a war zone right now. 

 

And here's the thing. This is really just the start. Exponential growth means that, in realistic scenarios, case numbers double every five days. 5683 now means 11366 in a maximum 5 days from now. Which becomes 22732 five days after that. 45464 five days after that. And we've been told we won't reach the peak for 12 weeks! Just continuing at that rate, the entire population will be infected in the next 3 months - which is why the failure to apply a total lockdown is crazy and indefensible.

 

Take that figure of around 45000 in around two weeks from now - still 10 weeks away from the peak. Around 20% of cases require hospitalisation. The level of capacity - of beds, and ICUs with ventilators - that's going to be required four weeks from now, six weeks from now or eight weeks from now is insane. The UK has 2.5 beds per 1000 people and 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people. By contrast, Germany has 8 beds per 100 people and 29.2 ICU beds per 100,000. And two of the countries most strongly lauded for how they've handled this are Japan and South Korea: who have the highest numbers of beds per head anywhere in the world.

 

Over just the next couple of weeks, healthcare systems in the UK (especially in densely packed, massively populated London) will start to collapse. Many people who would have lived with respiratory and oxygen treatment will instead die. So many others who'd normally get life-saving treatment for other illnesses, accidents or conditions will also die. And people over a certain age and/or with serious underlying conditions will inevitably not receive treatment, as hospital staff prioritise those with better chances of survival. And a good number of those staff are going to start dropping dead too.

 

20,000 deaths wouldn't just be a good outcome. It'd be an astonishing (I think, impossible) outcome. I think we're looking at anywhere between 200,000 and 500,000. And those who survive being traumatised, devastated, for a very, very long time to come.


The muppets out there would read this and then still head off to the big house party that they’ve organised in some Airbnb that they’ve all chipped in for. 
 

It just doesn’t seem to be getting through to some. We need to lock it down and lock it down now. 

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MoncurMacdonaldMercer
1 hour ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Precisely.

 

Yes, plenty of people die each year regardless. But this is as different as it gets. A virus like this will inevitably overwhelm almost all Western healthcare systems, which are just not set up to deal with the kind of numbers we're talking about here.

 

A good mate of mine in Lyon has the virus. He's fit, healthy, in his mid-40s... cannot stop coughing and is having breathing problems. He's been told to self-isolate but call an ambulance if it gets any worse - but many French hospitals are also short of protective equipment and of ventilators. Mulhouse, in eastern France, is like a war zone right now. 

 

And here's the thing. This is really just the start. Exponential growth means that, in realistic scenarios, case numbers double every five days. 5683 now means 11366 in a maximum 5 days from now. Which becomes 22732 five days after that. 45464 five days after that. And we've been told we won't reach the peak for 12 weeks! Just continuing at that rate, the entire population will be infected in the next 3 months - which is why the failure to apply a total lockdown is crazy and indefensible.

 

Take that figure of around 45000 in around two weeks from now - still 10 weeks away from the peak. Around 20% of cases require hospitalisation. The level of capacity - of beds, and ICUs with ventilators - that's going to be required four weeks from now, six weeks from now or eight weeks from now is insane. The UK has 2.5 beds per 1000 people and 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people. By contrast, Germany has 8 beds per 100 people and 29.2 ICU beds per 100,000. And two of the countries most strongly lauded for how they've handled this are Japan and South Korea: who have the highest numbers of beds per head anywhere in the world.

 

Over just the next couple of weeks, healthcare systems in the UK (especially in densely packed, massively populated London) will start to collapse. Many people who would have lived with respiratory and oxygen treatment will instead die. So many others who'd normally get life-saving treatment for other illnesses, accidents or conditions will also die. And people over a certain age and/or with serious underlying conditions will inevitably not receive treatment, as hospital staff prioritise those with better chances of survival. And a good number of those staff are going to start dropping dead too.

 

20,000 deaths wouldn't just be a good outcome. It'd be an astonishing (I think, impossible) outcome. I think we're looking at anywhere between 200,000 and 500,000. And those who survive being traumatised, devastated, for a very, very long time to come.

 

real scary stuff there Shaun do you have calcs to back any of that up?

 

im not saying only old/vulnerable people can die of this but as a very rough figure can you say how many of these types currently exist in uk?

 

what percentage of the infected go on to become critical in say Italy’s and Spain would also be helpful indicators along with some relevant comments on their validity

 

how many die weekly in the uk? What proportion do you think will be previously unexpected deaths

 

1 death is devastating for those connected  so not making light of the fact some folk are expected to die

 

where does the definition of exponential growth saying numbers double every 5 days? that would be really scary

 

are Italy deaths going to be doubling soon - will tomorrow’s number break a 1000? 1500? what do u think

 

you reckon any herd immunity has kicked in ?

 

cheers

 

 

Edited by MoncurMacdonaldMercer
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ArcticJambo
7 hours ago, inspector said:

Wife and l went for a walk through Newbattle woods and down on into the Abbey grounds. Vast majority of folk moved to the opposite side of the paths we were walking on and just gave a courtesy 'hello'. However just at the side of Newbattle Abbey College were sat 4 ****ing jakies knocking back Tennant's Lager and listening to Oasis. Pi**ed as farts but the best of it was one of them was wearing a mask. Unfortunately it was round his neck as it stopped him necking his can. Made me smile.

shit like this makes me laugh.  not because it's right but because it's real.

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5 hours ago, Jambof3tornado said:

The thing is, routinely you dont need 15,000 ventilators, so a government spending so much on them would be slated. Its a fine balancing act to have the right number of beds available etc without being wasteful.

 

*Lessons will be learned from this but lets just get through it first.

Exactly.

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The Internet

This school thing is going to cause chaos isn't it? Schools are just open but you're only meant to drop your kids off if you're a key worker. So many are just going to take their kids in to get rid of them. 

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I’m stunned at the amount of people who are ignoring the advice to stay at home unless you absolutely have to go out. How many need to die before people start taking this pandemic seriously?

I honestly think we’ll be in lockdown by the end of the week. The government will be left with no choice.

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doctor jambo

Been in work for a bit now,  we have hardly any staff left.

Those NOT staying in should hang their heads in shame.

You will LITERALLY kill health care workers with your utter feckin stupidity.

Frontline workers are risking their lives at the moment- is it too much to ask that you STAY INSIDE

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Tommy Brown
2 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Been in work for a bit now,  we have hardly any staff left.

Those NOT staying in should hang their heads in shame.

You will LITERALLY kill health care workers with your utter feckin stupidity.

Frontline workers are risking their lives at the moment- is it too much to ask that you STAY INSIDE

 

Not fully in agreement.

There is nothing wrong in going out, as long as you in a sensible manner (social distancing, etc)

 

It's the twats going in groups and hanging around that this message needs knocked into.

 

Lockdown should only come if the twats continue their unsocial behaviour.

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8 minutes ago, Tommy Brown said:

 

Not fully in agreement.

There is nothing wrong in going out, as long as you in a sensible manner (social distancing, etc)

 

It's the twats going in groups and hanging around that this message needs knocked into.

 

Lockdown should only come if the twats continue their unsocial behaviour.

 

The problem is people treating the school closures as some sort of extended holiday. 

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34 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Been in work for a bit now,  we have hardly any staff left.

Those NOT staying in should hang their heads in shame.

You will LITERALLY kill health care workers with your utter feckin stupidity.

Frontline workers are risking their lives at the moment- is it too much to ask that you STAY INSIDE

I'll be putting roof coverings on new houses all by myself, is that ok? 👍

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Jambof3tornado
53 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

Been in work for a bit now,  we have hardly any staff left.

Those NOT staying in should hang their heads in shame.

You will LITERALLY kill health care workers with your utter feckin stupidity.

Frontline workers are risking their lives at the moment- is it too much to ask that you STAY INSIDE

This. About to head in for 12 hour shift. I'm not looking forward to this at all and still ***** cant just stay at home.

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Is it safe or allowed to go out for a run? Usually run around aurther seat. Won't be many folk there and will running on my own

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Just now, AlimOzturk said:

Is it safe or allowed to go out for a run? Usually run around aurther seat. Won't be many folk there and will running on my own

Yes if you social distance.

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shaun.lawson

Italy has now gone as far as any democratic government possibly can. These are its instructions for anyone who needs to go out (eg. to buy food or exercise). I think they're useful for anyone. Any errors in the translation are mine.

 

ETxZmqFXQAE3Mfw?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

1. When you get home, try not to touch anything.

2. Take off your shoes.

3. Disinfect your pet's paws if they came with you. 

4. Take off your clothes and put them in a laundry bag. These clothes should be washed at at least 60 degrees.

5. Leave your purse, wallet, keys etc, in a box at the entrance.

6. Take a shower and wash all exposed areas (hands, wrists, face, neck, etc) well.

7. Wash your phone and glasses with soap and water or alcohol.

8. Clean the surfaces of what you bought with bleach before putting them away. Prepare the bleach with 20ml per litre of water. Don't forget to wear gloves.

9. Carefully remove the gloves, throw them away and wash your hands.

10. Remember: it is not possible to disinfect everything. The objective is to reduce the risk.

 

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25 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

I'll be putting roof coverings on new houses all by myself, is that ok? 👍

Sturgeon on Radio Scotland just now and appears to be still leaving with employers to decide but

 

Is work critical?

Can workers comply social distancing.

 

Talking of golf just now and her advice again is yes you can social distance playing golf but is it necessary?

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Harry Potter
1 minute ago, DETTY29 said:

Sturgeon on Radio Scotland just now and appears to be still leaving with employers to decide but

 

Is work critical?

Can workers comply social distancing.

 

Talking of golf just now and her advice again is yes you can social distance playing golf but is it necessary?

Watching Good morning Britain, video of a young guy licking products on a supermarket shelf.

Deffo not right in the head this clown.

 

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2 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

Watching Good morning Britain, video of a young guy licking products on a supermarket shelf.

Deffo not right in the head this clown.

 

Surly if you saw this ***** doing that, gave him a ****ing good kicking the police wouldn't press charges?!

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Just now, Dawnrazor said:

Surly if you saw this ***** doing that, gave him a ****ing good kicking the police wouldn't press charges?!

 

I personally wouldn't want to even touch the clarty ******* but a hard object to the knees wouldn't go a miss

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7 minutes ago, Harry Potter said:

Watching Good morning Britain, video of a young guy licking products on a supermarket shelf.

Deffo not right in the head this clown.

 

What is wrong with people.....

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doctor jambo
22 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Is it safe or allowed to go out for a run? Usually run around aurther seat. Won't be many folk there and will running on my own

From the general advice - yes, but really no.

the more folks seen out and about - even being responsible, it will green light the **** wits to go out and mill around.

I just want everyone to STAY INSIDE, for everything NON CRITICAL.

The quicker we grasp the nettle on this the faster it will blow over.

Im in favour of total lock down.

 

PS - as of today ALL COVID should call NHS 24, NOT your GP, or use NHS inform

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Currently on site, cleanroom environment, suits, hats, gloves and masks. The selfish, ignorant  b*st*rds are wearing the mask under the bottom lip, they would be as well wearing them on their ***king knees. 

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7 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

From the general advice - yes, but really no.

the more folks seen out and about - even being responsible, it will green light the **** wits to go out and mill around.

I just want everyone to STAY INSIDE, for everything NON CRITICAL.

The quicker we grasp the nettle on this the faster it will blow over.

Im in favour of total lock down.

 

PS - as of today ALL COVID should call NHS 24, NOT your GP, or use NHS inform


Absolutely spot on!

Four of us are currently 4 days into 2 weeks of isolation after I came down with classic symptoms.The country will be in lock down long before the end of our isolation (it should be done today!) so it’s likely we’ll be home for 4-6 weeks at least.

Its obviously not great but ffs people come on.What gives me the fear is passing this thing on to others,yes most of us have or will have relatively mild symptoms but your playing the lottery with peoples life’s.The decision has to be taken out of our hands as too many aren’t paying a blind bit of notice!

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Jambo-Jimbo

Just seen some pictures on Sky News, showing a packed train on the London tube WTF is it going to take for these people to understand.

 

Total lockdown is what is needed, the sooner the better, today would be fine by me.

 

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1 minute ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Just seen some pictures on Sky News, showing a packed train on the London tube WTF is it going to take for these people to understand.

 

Total lockdown is what is needed, the sooner the better, today would be fine by me.

 

 

That could be folk going to work who have no other choice. Sick of hearing folk berating others without first knowing why they are doing what they are doing. 

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OmiyaHearts

After seeing how busy the buses, trains and roads are today in Glasgow, there's no doubt in my mind what's happened in Italy is going to happen here.

 

A lockdown now is too late. It's over. Nothing we can do now.

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3 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Just seen some pictures on Sky News, showing a packed train on the London tube WTF is it going to take for these people to understand.

 

Total lockdown is what is needed, the sooner the better, today would be fine by me.

 

Did they say what they were on the train for? If they still have to work, they still need to get there. If that's their only mode of transport, what can they do? 

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doctor jambo
1 minute ago, OmiyaHearts said:

After seeing how busy the buses, trains and roads are today in Glasgow, there's no doubt in my mind what's happened in Italy is going to happen here.

 

A lockdown now is too late. It's over. Nothing we can do now.

 I now totally understand why the Americans buy guns in a crisis

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OmiyaHearts
Just now, AlimOzturk said:

 

That could be folk going to work who have no other choice. Sick of hearing folk berating others without first knowing why they are doing what they are doing. 

I agree. People shouting on a complete lockdown on transport are idiots.

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Just now, OmiyaHearts said:

I agree. People shouting on a complete lockdown on transport are idiots.

The buses are still running here. How else are key workers going to get to and from work. 

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4 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

I agree. People shouting on a complete lockdown on transport are idiots.

 

If the country is on lockdown then these folk wouldn't have to travel to work. 

 

I agree, the country must go into lockdown but NHS staff, store workers and plenty others will still have to go to work. How do you think they get their? Yeah, public transport. 

 

Edit think I read your post wrong sorry. 

Edited by AlimOzturk
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OmiyaHearts
1 minute ago, King prawn said:

The buses are still running here. How else are key workers going to get to and from work. 

Exactly. The transport HAS to run.

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3 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

I agree. People shouting on a complete lockdown on transport are idiots.

 

 

Edited by AlimOzturk
Double post
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50 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

Italy has now gone as far as any democratic government possibly can. These are its instructions for anyone who needs to go out (eg. to buy food or exercise). I think they're useful for anyone. Any errors in the translation are mine.

 

ETxZmqFXQAE3Mfw?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

1. When you get home, try not to touch anything.

2. Take off your shoes.

3. Disinfect your pet's paws if they came with you. 

4. Take off your clothes and put them in a laundry bag. These clothes should be washed at at least 60 degrees.

5. Leave your purse, wallet, keys etc, in a box at the entrance.

6. Take a shower and wash all exposed areas (hands, wrists, face, neck, etc) well.

7. Wash your phone and glasses with soap and water or alcohol.

8. Clean the surfaces of what you bought with bleach before putting them away. Prepare the bleach with 20ml per litre of water. Don't forget to wear gloves.

9. Carefully remove the gloves, throw them away and wash your hands.

10. Remember: it is not possible to disinfect everything. The objective is to reduce the risk.

 

Think Ill start doing some of these things now.

 

I've already started cleaning my letter box every day and will pre and post wipe bin handles on collection day.

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9 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

Just seen some pictures on Sky News, showing a packed train on the London tube WTF is it going to take for these people to understand.

 

Total lockdown is what is needed, the sooner the better, today would be fine by me.

 

 

6 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

That could be folk going to work who have no other choice. Sick of hearing folk berating others without first knowing why they are doing what they are doing. 

 

They are partly packed because it's a much reduced tube service from today. 

 

Still some activity eg people doing care, teachers going to school, health workers going to health services to work. But maybe still a lot not essential.

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3 minutes ago, OmiyaHearts said:

After seeing how busy the buses, trains and roads are today in Glasgow, there's no doubt in my mind what's happened in Italy is going to happen here.

 

A lockdown now is too late. It's over. Nothing we can do now.

 

Reduced transport services increase the passenger numbers per mode of transport, these measures create overcrowding, can't be deliberate surely? 

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6 minutes ago, King prawn said:

The buses are still running here. How else are key workers going to get to and from work. 

 

Saturday service mostly from Lothian Buses from today.

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2 hours ago, iantjambo said:

I’m stunned at the amount of people who are ignoring the advice to stay at home unless you absolutely have to go out. How many need to die before people start taking this pandemic seriously?

I honestly think we’ll be in lockdown by the end of the week. The government will be left with no choice.

 

This. Expect the military and police patrolling the streets shouting at people via megaphones because utter twats can't follow simple instructions.

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The excuses from the idiots will be that the government didn't put us in lockdown quick enough... What part of dont go outside or have people around do people not understand?  If you went socialising with anyone that isn't a member of your household this weekend then I'm afraid you are to blame for what is about to come. 

 

Selfish idiots, I only hope it is them that feels the pain and not some poor bugger that has tried to follow the rules and gets caught up in other people's reckless behaviour. 

 

If you have ignored the advice don't blame the government when you are left gasping for air in the hospital carpark. 

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12 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

 

They are partly packed because it's a much reduced tube service from today. 

 

Still some activity eg people doing care, teachers going to school, health workers going to health services to work. But maybe still a lot not essential.

I dunno. There's a lot more key workers than I certainly imagined. Everyone who works in Tescos, social workers, transport workers (mechanics, maintenance, the folk who clean the depots), those who produce medical equipment and supplies, those in food production (so all the folk on the factory lines and all the other jobs that involves, such as maintenance, cleaning, etc), grave diggers, there are millions all across the country who we are all now relying on getting us through this. 

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1 hour ago, shaun.lawson said:

Italy has now gone as far as any democratic government possibly can. These are its instructions for anyone who needs to go out (eg. to buy food or exercise). I think they're useful for anyone. Any errors in the translation are mine.

 

ETxZmqFXQAE3Mfw?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

1. When you get home, try not to touch anything.

2. Take off your shoes.

3. Disinfect your pet's paws if they came with you. 

4. Take off your clothes and put them in a laundry bag. These clothes should be washed at at least 60 degrees.

5. Leave your purse, wallet, keys etc, in a box at the entrance.

6. Take a shower and wash all exposed areas (hands, wrists, face, neck, etc) well.

7. Wash your phone and glasses with soap and water or alcohol.

8. Clean the surfaces of what you bought with bleach before putting them away. Prepare the bleach with 20ml per litre of water. Don't forget to wear gloves.

9. Carefully remove the gloves, throw them away and wash your hands.

10. Remember: it is not possible to disinfect everything. The objective is to reduce the risk.

 

 

Unfortunately many of my clothes wouldn't fit me any more if I washed them at 60 degrees. 

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13 minutes ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

 

Reduced transport services increase the passenger numbers per mode of transport, these measures create overcrowding, can't be deliberate surely? 

 

I work in public transport and one reason for reducing the numbers is driver availability.  A lot of people are off and more to come.

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