How Would You Vote in IndyRef2?

[Justin Z]

Right, so this Lord Ashcroft poll came out showing majority support for both a referendum within two years and independence itself.

 

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/exclusive-majority-scots-now-favour-independence-finds-poll

 

 

I'm sure there will be criticisms, probably centred around this being an online poll with only a hair over 1,000 respondents, or that a majority only would vote Yes if you discount "Don't Know"s. But it's those last two bar graphs on the right, there, that I find most interesting.

 

When it comes to changing your vote, 20% of 2014 No voters polled would now vote yes. 12% of 2014 Yes voters would now vote no. That's about a 9% swing if applied to the final 55/45 No result, almost mirroring it to 54/46 Yes on that singular calculus.

 

Obviously many other factors are at play, but if that is not merely a static figure--rather a trend--it bodes very positively for the prospect of independence.

 

Edited August 5, 2019 by Justin Z

[jack D and coke]

10 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

Right, so this Lord Ashcroft poll came out showing majority support for both a referendum within two years and independence itself.

 

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/exclusive-majority-scots-now-favour-independence-finds-poll

 

 

I'm sure there will be criticisms, probably centred around this being an online poll with only a hair over 1,000 respondents, or that a majority only would vote Yes if you discount "Don't Know"s. But it's those last two bar graphs on the right, there, that I find most interesting.

 

When it comes to changing your vote, 20% of 2014 No voters polled would now vote yes. 12% of 2014 Yes voters would now vote no. That's about a 9% swing if applied to the final 55/45 No result, almost mirroring it to 54/46 Yes on that singular calculus.

 

Obviously many other factors are at play, but if that is not merely a static figure--rather a trend--it bodes very positively for the prospect of independence.

 

Although I voted for it last time I’d like to see a bigger margin for Yes. I wouldn’t have been that comfortable at 55-45 last time I think it leaves the country badly divided as seen with the slim Brexit win. 

54-46, for me is a divided country. I’d imagine the vindictiveness of the 46 in that case would be quite something too. The British nationalists are the ones to worry about imo. 

[Justin Z]

Just now, jack D and coke said:

Although I voted for it last time I’d like to see a bigger margin for Yes. I wouldn’t have been that comfortable at 55-45 last time I think it leaves the country badly divided as seen with the slim Brexit win. 

54-46, for me is a divided country. I’d imagine the vindictiveness of the 46 in that case would be quite something too. The British nationalists are the ones to worry about imo. 

 

Yep. All very relevant. Unfortunately, because a 52/48 referendum with no checks for validity (like 40% of total electorate must endorse, a majority of nations within the UK must endorse, etc.) has already changed from "legally advisory only" to ABSOLUTELY MANDATORY **** THE EU LEAVE MEANS LEAVE 🇬🇧🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, what do you do?

 

That's the enormous problem with leaving constitutional change up to a simple majority referendum. But it's the exact constitutional system and situation we now find ourselves in.

[ri Alban]

8 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

Although I voted for it last time I’d like to see a bigger margin for Yes. I wouldn’t have been that comfortable at 55-45 last time I think it leaves the country badly divided as seen with the slim Brexit win. 

54-46, for me is a divided country. I’d imagine the vindictiveness of the 46 in that case would be quite something too. The British nationalists are the ones to worry about imo. 

Bring it on! 

[jack D and coke]

1 minute ago, Justin Z said:

 

Yep. All very relevant. Unfortunately, because a 52/48 referendum with no checks for validity (like 40% of total electorate must endorse, a majority of nations within the UK must endorse, etc.) has already changed from "legally advisory only" to ABSOLUTELY MANDATORY **** THE EU LEAVE MEANS LEAVE 🇬🇧🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, what do you do?

 

That's the enormous problem with leaving constitutional change up to a simple majority referendum. But it's the exact constitutional system and situation we now find ourselves in.

Yeah the U.K. is out of date. 

Imagine a union where each of the countries in it maybe had shared currency. They each had a vote and a veto. They struck deals on movement and trade that for the most part benefitted all partners. I’d vote to stay in union like that I reckon. 

Which one is most like that and which one are we a prisoner of that we basically get hee haw say in and get telt by people we never vote for? 

[Boris]

Only one poll, but encouraging none the less.

 

Even if it acts as a wake up call to the charlatan in Downing Street, realising that no deal is not the way to go.

[Swanny17]

If Boris pushes through a no deal Brexit, I’d bet heavily on Scottish independence in a couple of years. 

[manaliveits105]

Not while Sturgeons still there 

[Pans Jambo]

12 hours ago, Justin Z said:

 

Yep. All very relevant. Unfortunately, because a 52/48 referendum with no checks for validity (like 40% of total electorate must endorse, a majority of nations within the UK must endorse, etc.) has already changed from "legally advisory only" to ABSOLUTELY MANDATORY **** THE EU LEAVE MEANS LEAVE 🇬🇧🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, what do you do?

 

That's the enormous problem with leaving constitutional change up to a simple majority referendum. But it's the exact constitutional system and situation we now find ourselves in.

Well its even worse for that lot...it doesnt include 16-17yr olds or EU Nationals 😂

[Pans Jambo]

3 minutes ago, Zlatanable said:

I would vote to remain. 

You and 40 odd % of others apparently. 

[jake]

I would still vote yes.

But I believe brexit wont happen and neither would independence after a yes victory.

 

Even if we leave it will take years and we will rejoin.

Too much vested interests from the powerful.

Independence for Scotland will face a mountain compared to the mole hill of leaving the EU.

If Berlin has held European power then imagine Londons over these islands .

 

Still vote yes though.

[Justin Z]

Fun.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

So suddenly Sturgeon is interested in the majority.

[Montgomery Brewster]

Remember this poll does not include 16/17 year old or eu nationals . A hard winter will tip the balance even more in favour of yes. Breakdown in age brackets means it’s only a matter of time before the see saw tips well past 60%

 

Age split for today’s Ashcroft poll - Yes 52%

16-17 = Not included in poll
18-24 = 72% Yes 
25-49 = 61% Yes 
50-64 = 46% Yes 
65+ = 32% Yes

Basically, one bad winter and we’ll be free! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[Montgomery Brewster]

3 hours ago, Justin Z said:

Fun.

 

The last days of the empire squire. It’s been a long time in coming.

[XB52]

1 hour ago, Montgomery Brewster said:

Remember this poll does not include 16/17 year old or eu nationals . A hard winter will tip the balance even more in favour of yes. Breakdown in age brackets means it’s only a matter of time before the see saw tips well past 60%

 

Age split for today’s Ashcroft poll - Yes 52%

16-17 = Not included in poll
18-24 = 72% Yes 
25-49 = 61% Yes 
50-64 = 46% Yes 
65+ = 32% Yes

Basically, one bad winter and we’ll be free! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

As the people who lived through the 2nd world War depart the idea of the great British empire goes with them. Support for independence will only grow. Its only a matter of time now

[Justin Z]

4 minutes ago, XB52 said:

As the people who lived through the 2nd world War depart the idea of the great British empire goes with them. Support for independence will only grow. Its only a matter of time now

 

Watch out, some random poster is about to spring out and accuse you of being anti-geriatric for stating a verifiable demographic fact.  

[manaliveits105]

Still NAW 

[Who_put_the_ball_in...]

RBS set to move HQ to London in the event of Scottish independence. Sure they wouldn’t be the only ones either. Can’t blame them what bank would want to operate in Socialist Republic of Scotland and do business in Crankie Dollars. 

[jack D and coke]

6 minutes ago, Who_put_the_ball_in... said:

RBS set to move HQ to London in the event of Scottish independence. Sure they wouldn’t be the only ones either. Can’t blame them what bank would want to operate in Socialist Republic of Scotland and do business in Crankie Dollars. 

 

I reckon we should just use the tears of unionists as currency tbh. There’s going to be trillions of them. 

Edited August 6, 2019 by jack D and coke

[Who_put_the_ball_in...]

4 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

 

I reckon we should just use the tears of unionists as currency tbh. There’s going to be trillions of them. 

Pretty poor crack imagine how many Edinburgh residents and fellow Jambos will be out of work? So long as your wee hate filled agenda get fulfilled

[jack D and coke]

7 minutes ago, Who_put_the_ball_in... said:

Pretty poor crack imagine how many Edinburgh residents and fellow Jambos will be out of work? So long as your wee hate filled agenda get fulfilled

How is it a hate filled agenda? I believe we will be better off in time. I don’t really hate anybody I just believe it’s time we took control. 

You’re crankie dollars and socialist republic nonsense makes me laugh. You can’t even have a conversation about it you’re so raging. 

[Justin Z]

2 minutes ago, jack D and coke said:

How is it a hate filled agenda? I believe we will be better off in time. I don’t really hate anybody I just believe it’s time we took control. 

You’re crankie dollars and socialist republic nonsense makes me laugh. You can’t even have a conversation about it you’re so raging. 

 

Yeah but you're the one with a hate-filled agenda mate, so nee ner nee ner nee ner

[SectionN]

5 hours ago, Montgomery Brewster said:

Remember this poll does not include 16/17 year old or eu nationals . A hard winter will tip the balance even more in favour of yes. Breakdown in age brackets means it’s only a matter of time before the see saw tips well past 60%

 

Age split for today’s Ashcroft poll - Yes 52%

16-17 = Not included in poll
18-24 = 72% Yes 
25-49 = 61% Yes 
50-64 = 46% Yes 
65+ = 32% Yes

Basically, one bad winter and we’ll be free! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

What a horrible comment.

[jack D and coke]

RBS etc aren’t moving out of spite they’ll have to move they’re owned by the British government ffs and for all intents and purposes have been operating out of London for years now. The plaque on the wall in Edinburgh is token. 

[jack D and coke]

5 minutes ago, Justin Z said:

 

Yeah but you're the one with a hate-filled agenda mate, so nee ner nee ner nee ner

There’s too many people on both sides who can’t engage properly in a conversation about it. Some Nats are every bit as bad I can’t be arsed with them. 

[Justin Z]

Just now, jack D and coke said:

There’s too many people on both sides who can’t engage properly in a conversation about it. Some Nats are every bit as bad I can’t be arsed with them. 

 

Oh for sure, I find people who are "accidentally right", if you like, more distasteful than people who are just complete knobs and therefore of course they're wrong because duh.

[ri Alban]

24 minutes ago, Who_put_the_ball_in... said:

Pretty poor crack imagine how many Edinburgh residents and fellow Jambos will be out of work? So long as your wee hate filled agenda get fulfilled

They'll already be out of work with brexit. Indy in the EU will get them back to work.

[Class of 75]

6 hours ago, Montgomery Brewster said:

Remember this poll does not include 16/17 year old or eu nationals . A hard winter will tip the balance even more in favour of yes. Breakdown in age brackets means it’s only a matter of time before the see saw tips well past 60%

 

Age split for today’s Ashcroft poll - Yes 52%

16-17 = Not included in poll
18-24 = 72% Yes 
25-49 = 61% Yes 
50-64 = 46% Yes 
65+ = 32% Yes

Basically, one bad winter and we’ll be free! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

I take it that poll was conducted at Parkhead after the 7-0 win at the weekend? 

[Class of 75]

43 minutes ago, Who_put_the_ball_in... said:

RBS set to move HQ to London in the event of Scottish independence. Sure they wouldn’t be the only ones either. Can’t blame them what bank would want to operate in Socialist Republic of Scotland and do business in Crankie Dollars. 

If Scotland were to be independent and request to rejoin the EU even if this was a possibility, the terms set would be severe. The EU would request that Scotland accept the Euro and the Schengen Agreement. I can see that going down well. Even the ROI have not joined it. 

[ri Alban]

2 minutes ago, Class of 75 said:

If Scotland were to be independent and request to rejoin the EU even if this was a possibility, the terms set would be severe. The EU would request that Scotland accept the Euro and the Schengen Agreement. I can see that going down well. Even the ROI have not joined it. 

[Class of 75]

7 hours ago, Ron Burgundy said:

So suddenly Sturgeon is interested in the majority.

Very hypocrital when she and the other Remoaners refuse to accept the result of the majority in the EU Referendum. No surprise there then. 

[Class of 75]

1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

Truth hurt? 

[ri Alban]

1 minute ago, Class of 75 said:

Truth hurt? 

Truth? You know feck all. That's the truth.

Enjoy yer union, it's coming to an end. Soon!

 

 

Tick Tock!!!

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

6 minutes ago, Class of 75 said:

If Scotland were to be independent and request to rejoin the EU even if this was a possibility, the terms set would be severe. The EU would request that Scotland accept the Euro and the Schengen Agreement. I can see that going down well. Even the ROI have not joined it. 

Pish.

[Hugh Phamism]

8 minutes ago, Class of 75 said:

Truth hurt? 

Not true though is it...

 

Edited August 6, 2019 by Hugh Phamism

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

Just now, ri Alban said:

Truth? You know feck all. That's the truth.

Enjoy yer union, it's coming to an end. Soon!

 

 

Tick Tock!!!

Correct. What's wrong with the euro anyway? 

[ri Alban]

Just now, Joey J J Jr Shabadoo said:

Correct. What's wrong with the euro anyway? 

Spondoolics will do me. The pounds fecked!

[Boris]

18 hours ago, jake said:

I would still vote yes.

But I believe brexit wont happen and neither would independence after a yes victory.

 

Even if we leave it will take years and we will rejoin.

Too much vested interests from the powerful.

Independence for Scotland will face a mountain compared to the mole hill of leaving the EU.

If Berlin has held European power then imagine Londons over these islands .

 

Still vote yes though.

 

Leaving the EU and becoming an independent nation state are two completely different things Jake.

 

Why would it take years? Worked ok in the former USSR, Czekoslovakia etc. Historically, India, Canada, USA, Ireland even.

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

3 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Spondoolics will do me. The pounds fecked!

Correct, again. North Korean currency will be more attractive than the pound. 

[Boris]

14 minutes ago, Class of 75 said:

If Scotland were to be independent and request to rejoin the EU even if this was a possibility, the terms set would be severe. The EU would request that Scotland accept the Euro and the Schengen Agreement. I can see that going down well. Even the ROI have not joined it. 

 

Like Sweden and Denmark?

 

10 minutes ago, Class of 75 said:

Very hypocrital when she and the other Remoaners refuse to accept the result of the majority in the EU Referendum. No surprise there then. 

 

Majority of those in Scotland voted remain. Only standing up for the electorate in her remit.

[Class of 75]

4 minutes ago, Joey J J Jr Shabadoo said:

Correct. What's wrong with the euro anyway? 

What's right with it? It nearly bankrupted Greece and is being held up by Germany via an unelected European Central Bank. If and it is a big if a newly independent Scotland, who will be a massive net taker, apply to join and get accepted the terms would bankrupt them immediately. If you think it is bad now wait till then 

[Joey J J Jr Shabadoo]

Just now, Class of 75 said:

What's right with it? It nearly bankrupted Greece and is being held up by Germany via an unelected European Central Bank. If and it is a big if a newly independent Scotland, who will be a massive net taker, apply to join and get accepted the terms would bankrupt them immediately. If you think it is bad now wait till then 

Pish. 

[Class of 75]

1 minute ago, Boris said:

 

Like Sweden and Denmark?

 

 

Majority of those in Scotland voted remain. Only standing up for the electorate in her remit.

Both have more to offer than Scotland. She is only doing so as a nuisance but the point still stands that Scotland voted as part of the UK. It was UK wide and not localised. She is making it so for own agenda. 

[ri Alban]

Just now, Class of 75 said:

Both have more to offer than Scotland. 

[dobmisterdobster]

If there was another independence referendum which I highly doubt there will be, I would vote No.

Boris would need to give permission for Sturgeon to hold one and he would be stupid allow it.

[Class of 75]

12 minutes ago, Hugh Phamism said:

Not true though is it...

 

Of course they would say they. It affects the stability of the UK and France would like nothing else than to undermine it. However, I wonder what Spain would say with respect to Catalonia and in any event this is hypocritical of France considering how the EU treated Catalonia when they attempted to declare UDI. 

[Class of 75]

6 minutes ago, Joey J J Jr Shabadoo said:

Pish. 

Fair enough. But please carry on living in cloud cuckoo land

Edited August 6, 2019 by Class of 75

[ri Alban]

Just now, Class of 75 said:

Of course they would say they. It affects the stability of the UK and France would like nothing else than to undermine it. However, I wonder what Spain would say with respect to Catalonia and in any event this is hypocritical of France considering how the EU treated Catalonia when they attempted to declare UDI. 

Scotland has always been a nation. Catalonia has not.

 

Stoap greetin. 

[Class of 75]

18 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Truth? You know feck all. That's the truth.

Enjoy yer union, it's coming to an end. Soon!

 

 

Tick Tock!!!

Mate as discussed before I have a degree in this so know quite a bit.