Hard Brexit

[Seymour M Hersh]

Edited July 2, 2018 by Seymour M Hersh

[AlphonseCapone]

2 hours ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

So in essence you want to cow tow to the EU. One of the reasons i voted leave. And we're inbound a stronger position than you seem to understand. We can walk away with no deal. No "divorce" payment no nothing and work under WTO trade rules. 

 

I don't want to "cow tow" to anyone but I live in the real world where beating your chest and singing rule britannia won't get you anywhere. 

 

The EU is in a stronger position than us, regardless of how strong our position is. We are walking about from a market of 500m, they are losing a market of 60m. We have trade deals with no one when we leave and they have trade deals with each other and numerous deals of varying degrees with several other countries including essential a full deal with Canada. Like it or not, we are at the start with all deals. 

 

No divorce payment equals walking away from our debt, which means damaging our credit rating and increasing our interest rates. At a time when British national debt is at a record high and businesses are already twitchy. Just walking away is an awful choice. I am also willing to bet you weren't advocating the same just walk away from the debt if there is no deal when it came to the threats from London and Scottish Independence. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

I don't want to "cow tow" to anyone but I live in the real world where beating your chest and singing rule britannia won't get you anywhere. 

 

The EU is in a stronger position than us, regardless of how strong our position is. We are walking about from a market of 500m, they are losing a market of 60m. We have trade deals with no one when we leave and they have trade deals with each other and numerous deals of varying degrees with several other countries including essential a full deal with Canada. Like it or not, we are at the start with all deals. 

 

No divorce payment equals walking away from our debt, which means damaging our credit rating and increasing our interest rates. At a time when British national debt is at a record high and businesses are already twitchy. Just walking away is an awful choice. I am also willing to bet you weren't advocating the same just walk away from the debt if there is no deal when it came to the threats from London and Scottish Independence. 

 

I disagree with everything you say re Brexit so I'll just leave it there. Utterly pointless going round and round in circles with remainers.

[The Mighty Thor]

5 minutes ago, AlphonseCapone said:

 

I don't want to "cow tow" to anyone but I live in the real world where beating your chest and singing rule britannia won't get you anywhere. 

 

The EU is in a stronger position than us, regardless of how strong our position is. We are walking about from a market of 500m, they are losing a market of 60m. We have trade deals with no one when we leave and they have trade deals with each other and numerous deals of varying degrees with several other countries including essential a full deal with Canada. Like it or not, we are at the start with all deals. 

To me there's an unfounded sense of Britain being a 'big player' on the global stage which underpins a lot of the bullish nonsense being spouted by the Brexiteers. Britain is potless and in reality powerless. Ostracising yourself from your biggest market is lunacy let alone all the other pan European cooperations the UK enjoys in terms of security, energy etc.

 

It's folly. Folly based on a false premise and an inane hope that it'll all turnout fine. 

 

 

[AlphonseCapone]

31 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

I disagree with everything you say re Brexit so I'll just leave it there. Utterly pointless going round and round in circles with remainers.

 

Rather than explain why you disagree or point to something that demonstrates why I'm wrong you'll just ignore a different opinion. I'm not a remainer, I'm someone who voted to remain in the EU referendum last year, you can save the childish labels. 

[Victorian]

BRINO.

 

[Bazzas right boot]

On 29/06/2018 at 12:07, Victorian said:

The Tory government is basically now in an end state of being Emperor Nero having a go on the fiddle while Rome burned.     They really do not give shit #1.

 

Theresa May has, from day 1 in the job,  been fulfilling a lifestyle for herself and nothing further.    Not actually achieving anything?     Don't give a ****.     Not actually in power?     Don't give a ****.     Gimme the job title,     all the trappings of office and I'll see you on the multi-million pound speakers tour soon.     

 

Funny enough, having read the Simon scarrow novels and Ben Kane ones, I made the comparison to this. 

 

Instead of gladiator fights, we have fb, football, love island and loads of other things to distract the plebs. 

 

The wc is the ultamite gladiator fight, like when they bring in the rhino's or tigers to fight. 

 

[AuldReekie444]

On 02/07/2018 at 20:12, The Mighty Thor said:

To me there's an unfounded sense of Britain being a 'big player' on the global stage which underpins a lot of the bullish nonsense being spouted by the Brexiteers. Britain is potless and in reality powerless. Ostracising yourself from your biggest market is lunacy let alone all the other pan European cooperations the UK enjoys in terms of security, energy etc.

 

It's folly. Folly based on a false premise and an inane hope that it'll all turnout fine. 

 

 

 

I am guessing you dont work in business/finance or have any knowledge about global finance,

[Francis Albert]

Read a long article in the New York Times at the weekend about new laws in Denmark defining "ghetto children" (that term actually used) as those living in low income households  in largely immigrant areas. These children are legally required to spend 25 hours a week outside their homes being taught (indoctrinated?) about  Danish culture - apparently including Christmas and other elements of Christian  culture as part of an assimilation process. This in liberal social democratic Denmark, famous for protecting a very high proportion of Jews from the Nazis. Imagine if Trump imposed these sort of terms on even legal immigrants to the US, or if Britain did so. Yet it goes without protest in the lovable EU.

[The Mighty Thor]

18 hours ago, AuldReekie444 said:

 

I am guessing you dont work in business/finance or have any knowledge about global finance,

I'm guessing you're not a clairvoyant.

[jake]

https://capx.co/the-eu-is-storing-up-problems-for-the-future/

 

You know it's a pity.

There was a place for the common market but the relentless march towards a single currency superstate was doomed to failure.

[jake]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/world/europe/germany-political-crisis.html

 

Its for the best we untangle ourselves from the mess that the EU is becoming.

[jake]

And for those who would see us water down to a soft brexit.

To imo dangerously ignore the voters will only see a rise in far right politics.

To a level that nears the rise across the continent.

Thankfully the UK still hasn't gone down the route of our supposedly more advanced EU neighbours.

 

 

[Cade]

Another Brexit white paper has been released, this time about the fishing rights.

 

It's status quo, ladies and gents. 

 

 

 

2-3 big companies will still get almost all of the quotas and the wee guys will still get feck all. 

This, by the way, is a UK issue and not an EU issue.

The UK govt has always had the power to divide it's quota as it wishes, and it wishes to give over 2/3 of it to 3 large super-trawlers.

[The Mighty Thor]

9 hours ago, jake said:

And for those who would see us water down to a soft brexit.

To imo dangerously ignore the voters will only see a rise in far right politics.

To a level that nears the rise across the continent.

Thankfully the UK still hasn't gone down the route of our supposedly more advanced EU neighbours.

 

 

So what happens when the hard Brexit happens and the downturn in the economy deepens and the rise on the far right increases and there's no Europeans or immigrants to blame? 

[jake]

14 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

So what happens when the hard Brexit happens and the downturn in the economy deepens and the rise on the far right increases and there's no Europeans or immigrants to blame? 

The rise of the far right on the continent far exceeds what's happening here.

Downturns in our economy are bound to happen .

It's the nature of capitalism.

There has not been a rise of the far right in the UK.

If you compare it with mainstream politics in every European parliament.

 

People like to imagine that the UK is somehow less progressive .

It does not bear scrutiny.

[The Mighty Thor]

6 minutes ago, jake said:

The rise of the far right on the continent far exceeds what's happening here.

Downturns in our economy are bound to happen .

It's the nature of capitalism.

There has not been a rise of the far right in the UK.

If you compare it with mainstream politics in every European parliament.

 

People like to imagine that the UK is somehow less progressive .

It does not bear scrutiny.

Would you classify the rise in anti-european sentiment a far right behaviour?

 Remember the ills of the UK particularly the working class areas is solely down to firstly being a part of the EU and secondly down to immigrants.

IMO what's unfolding over Brexit shows exactly how less than progressive large swathes of the UK actually is. 

[jake]

8 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Would you classify the rise in anti-european sentiment a far right behaviour?

 Remember the ills of the UK particularly the working class areas is solely down to firstly being a part of the EU and secondly down to immigrants.

IMO what's unfolding over Brexit shows exactly how less than progressive large swathes of the UK actually is. 

Yes I accept that.

But I don't believe that the EU is progressive .

Far from it.

 

 

[The Mighty Thor]

I think the EU has been progressive by and large. Times change the political and economic landscape also have changed and the EU needs to change too. I believe we'd gain more being in it making decisions than outside hoping for the best. 

I believe the UK is progressing towards a political and constitutional breakdown which has been instigated and accelerated by the Tory party's myopic obsession with self destruction over the EU.

[Cade]

Weak&Wobbly gets permission from the Cabinet to start negotiating a soft Brexit

 

[Francis Albert]

33 minutes ago, Cade said:

Weak&Wobbly gets permission from the Cabinet to start negotiating a soft Brexit

 

Or a Soft Remain which is probably more accurate. But if the consistent EU position of no cherry picking and no cake and eating is sustained then a very Hard Brexit remains a real possibility. So called Soft Brexit is still at odds with everything the EU has so far insisted on.

 

[The Mighty Thor]

17 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

Or a Soft Remain which is probably more accurate. But if the consistent EU position of no cherry picking and no cake and eating is sustained then a very Hard Brexit remains a real possibility. So called Soft Brexit is still at odds with everything the EU has so far insisted on.

 

Yup. 

My take on it is that she's cobbled together this nonsense knowing that it'll never fly with EU. Bingo we get a no deal scenario and it's all Johnny F's fault as she offered them a deal, at which point the Tories are free to wreak the economic havoc they've planned all along.  

[Victorian]

The EU will tell them to travel forth and procreate.       

[Ulysses]

[The Mighty Thor]

11 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Nothing there. 

They've hard bordered your Wi-Fi already. 

[Ulysses]

12 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Nothing there. 

They've hard bordered your Wi-Fi already. 

 

Maybe I've become Shaun Lawson. 

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Nothing there. 

They've hard bordered your Wi-Fi already. 

 

https://twitter.com/Mckendrick36/status/1015221826266501120https://twitter.com/Mckendrick36/status/1015221826266501120

[JackLadd]

This is not Brexit at all, just a fudge of the same BS. 

[Victorian]

The more detail that creeps out about this latest sticking plaster of an agreed government plan for Brexit,     the more of a sheer fantasy it sounds.       You couldn't make it up regarding how utterly deluded they are to assume that this set of proposals will be waved through by the EU side.      Parliament will go through another round of gum bumping and a few votes on amendments and motions and a version of this fairy tale will be taken to the next round of negotiations.     The EU side will devour it and gob the mashed up mess straight back in our faces.        All that will be achieved will be the loss of more limited time.

 

We're heading towards a meltdown for the government,    a Tory leadership change,    a general election and a no-deal Brexit.       Quite possibly the eventual groundswell of support for a second referendum.

Edited July 8, 2018 by Victorian

[Francis Albert]

If it wasn't for the outstanding incompetence of the UK in negotiations so far (accepting preconditions for even opening negotiations, offering at least some concessions for zilch in return) you might suspect this was a cunning ploy. Unite the cabinet and most Tory MPs on a "deal" that has no chance of being accepted and blame the other side when everything falls apart and no deal is the only feasible outcome. Perhaps Brexit means Brexit after all.

 

Edited July 8, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Francis Albert]

8 hours ago, Victorian said:

The more detail that creeps out about this latest sticking plaster of an agreed government plan for Brexit,     the more of a sheer fantasy it sounds.       You couldn't make it up regarding how utterly deluded they are to assume that this set of proposals will be waved through by the EU side.      Parliament will go through another round of gum bumping and a few votes on amendments and motions and a version of this fairy tale will be taken to the next round of negotiations.     The EU side will devour it and gob the mashed up mess straight back in our faces.        All that will be achieved will be the loss of more limited time.

 

We're heading towards a meltdown for the government,    a Tory leadership change,    a general election and a no-deal Brexit.       Quite possibly the eventual groundswell of support for a second referendum.

What would be the question? There is no chance that the EU would accept that we remain and just ignore our notice to leave so "as you were" (with all our previously negotiated opt outs) is not an option. So "do we leave or do we remain on worse terms than before?" .seems unlikely to result in a reversal of the previous vote.

[Ulysses]

9 hours ago, Victorian said:

Quite possibly the eventual groundswell of support for a second referendum.

 

Nah, the vote was held and the decision was made.

 

I still maintain that whatever exit deal is reached it should be put to the people in a referendum.  Voters should be allowed to reject any negotiated deal in favour of a no-deal exit if they wish.

[The Comedian]

38 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

If it wasn't for the outstanding incompetence of the UK in negotiations so far (accepting preconditions for even opening negotiations, offering at least some concessions for zilch in return) you might suspect this was a cunning ploy. Unite the cabinet and most Tory MPs on a "deal" that has no chance of being accepted and blame the other side when everything falls apart and no deal is the only feasible outcome. Perhaps Brexit means Brexit after all.

 

 

An element of 'blame' would be with the EU though who appear unwilling to do any running in negotiations. As far as I see it the UK are offering concessions, trying to make it work and getting nothing back. 

 

That is their prerogative, fair enough but there is a side to the negotiations who need to get real here if they want a orderly Brexit and it isn't the UK. 

 

Ultimately you just aren't allowed to leave.

 

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, The Comedian said:

 

Ultimately you just aren't allowed to leave.

 

 

 

Of course you are.  You voted to leave, you gave us notice of your departure, and you will leave.  If you want preferential access to markets, then you have to have an agreement.  If you don't want preferential access to markets, then you don't need an agreement.

 

This is all about the amount of access the two sides want to each other's markets, and what they are prepared to sacrifice to get that access.  What the UK government is unwilling to deal with - and what the overwhelming majority of British voters don't understand - is that the EU isn't prepared to damage or even destroy its single market just to get preferential access to the UK's market.  It's genuinely not worth it.

[Francis Albert]

10 minutes ago, The Comedian said:

 

An element of 'blame' would be with the EU though who appear unwilling to do any running in negotiations. As far as I see it the UK are offering concessions, trying to make it work and getting nothing back. 

 

That is their prerogative, fair enough but there is a side to the negotiations who need to get real here if they want a orderly Brexit and it isn't the UK. 

 

Ultimately you just aren't allowed to leave.

 

I don't really understand why the UK has not responded to the repeated "no cherry picking" "no having your cake and eating it" mantra by publicly asking, if that is the case, what is the point of any negotiation?

[Francis Albert]

I have just spent over a month in the USA. I found that I could buy drinkable French and other European wine of the same quality as I buy at home and some other food and drink (including Scotch whisky) imports more cheaply in US supermarkets than in the UK - in the case of wine exactly the same bottle at about half the price. European cars seem to be priced at about the same number in dollars as they are in pounds in the UK. So I wonder why - tax differentials or the old "rip off Britain" phenomenon. less competitive retail markets? Whatever it suggests to me lack of tariffs and so called "frictionless trade" is not the only or perhaps main factor in the ability of businesses to trade competitively.

[The Mighty Thor]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

I have just spent over a month in the USA. I found that I could buy drinkable French and other European wine of the same quality as I buy at home and some other food and drink (including Scotch whisky) imports more cheaply in US supermarkets than in the UK - in the case of wine exactly the same bottle at about half the price. European cars seem to be priced at about the same number in dollars as they are in pounds in the UK. So I wonder why - tax differentials or the old "rip off Britain" phenomenon. less competitive retail markets? Whatever it suggests to me lack of tariffs and so called "frictionless trade" is not the only or perhaps main factor in the ability of businesses to trade competitively.

The wine issue has nothing to do with the EU. The only EU tax on wine is CCT on wines from countries outwith the EU and not even all of them. 

It all UK excise duty I'm afraid. 

Post Brexit is anyone's guess.

[Francis Albert]

28 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

The wine issue has nothing to do with the EU. The only EU tax on wine is CCT on wines from countries outwith the EU and not even all of them. 

It all UK excise duty I'm afraid. 

Post Brexit is anyone's guess.

I didn't say it did have anything to do with the EU. In fact quite the opposite. The large price differences I referred to are an illustration that "free trade", a "common market" and "frictionless trade" is a myth. The UK tax on wine is in effect a tariff on French exports to the UK. Of course the same tax levels apply to the minuscule UK wine production so that's fine.

Edited July 8, 2018 by Francis Albert

[Ulysses]

Just now, Francis Albert said:

I didn't say it did have anything to do with the EU. In fact quite the opposite. The large price differences I referred to are an illustration that "free trade", a "common market" and "frictionless trade" is a myth. The UK tax on wine is in effect a tariff on French exports to the UK.

 

 

I don't recall you ever posting in favour of giving the EU more control over domestic tax policies and rates. 

[Francis Albert]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

 

I don't recall you ever posting in favour of giving the EU more control over domestic tax policies and rates. 

No but if a "common market" is to have any real meaning it should. And the scaremongering about tariffs ignores bigger factors impacting on trade and competitiveness.

[Ulysses]

36 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

No but if a "common market" is to have any real meaning it should. And the scaremongering about tariffs ignores bigger factors impacting on trade and competitiveness.

 

 

The European Commission would agree with you, but I don't think British voters would suddenly become fans of EU membership if Brussels acquired powers to dictate domestic tax policy.

 

As to what you consider to be scaremongering, tariffs are a very real competitive threat, and they're not the only one.  If you introduce the administrative difficulties and delays associated with cross-border traffic, then the just-in-time supply chains of a lot of British businesses will be compromised or rendered ineffective.  That's not scaremongering, it's what will happen.

 

[CJGJ]

Brexit sec resigns !!!!  David Davis has gone

 

The sooner we get this decision reversed the better..lets hope for a full war on the matter in the tory party, an election and another vote.

 

By then more of the older people will have passed on and more young voters will be eligible along with those who realise what a mistake they made in the earlier vote and we'll soon come back from the brink

Edited July 8, 2018 by CJGJ

[Mikey1874]

Not sure this will make any difference.

 

Just need to get the negotiation done. 

 

It is tough, maybe a shambles. We might see another election soon. But it needs to get done. 

[CJGJ]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

Not sure this will make any difference.

 

Just need to get the negotiation done. 

 

It is tough, maybe a shambles. We might see another election soon. But it needs to get done. 

He's resigned to position himself for the now almost certain tory leader election...nothing to do with the country's well being

 

Others will join him, she will go to a vote and lose then we will have a Brexiteer leading the tories who will then be faced with calls for an election...with luck we will get rid of that annoying little Northern Irish mob running the country

 

The leaders battle wil be fun with the personal hatred between many of the candidates

[Mikey1874]

10 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

He's resigned to position himself for the now almost certain tory leader election...nothing to do with the country's well being

 

Others will join him, she will go to a vote and lose then we will have a Brexiteer leading the tories who will then be faced with calls for an election...with luck we will get rid of that annoying little Northern Irish mob running the country

 

The leaders battle wil be fun with the personal hatred between many of the candidates

 

DUP could force some discipline to ensure deal is done. Including threatening to pull plug if May forced out.

 

See path being easied to The Deal on EU.

 

Otherwise there be a General Election. 

[...a bit disco]

29 minutes ago, CJGJ said:

Brexit sec resigns !!!!  David Davis has gone

 

The sooner we get this decision reversed the better..lets hope for a full war on the matter in the tory party, an election and another vote.

 

By then more of the older people will have passed on and more young voters will be eligible along with those who realise what a mistake they made in the earlier vote and we'll soon come back from the brink

 

Liking the sound of this.

 

Especially as I'm of the group 'those who realise what a mistake they made in the earlier vote'.

 

Doesn't mean you'll get cut any slack on the Rangers thread though.

 

 

[FWJ]

What a farce.

What an absolute ****ing omnishambles of a farce.

 

And all this because David Cameron wanted to slap down some troublemakers in the Tory party.

And Jeremy Corbin is just as culpable.

 

What a ****ing farce.

[jake]

23 minutes ago, FWJ said:

What a farce.

What an absolute ****ing omnishambles of a farce.

 

And all this because David Cameron wanted to slap down some troublemakers in the Tory party.

And Jeremy Corbin is just as culpable.

 

What a ****ing farce.

One delivered by democracy.

Imo it's a beautiful thing.

And a beacon to those who don't have the luxury .

 

 

[The Brow]

4 hours ago, jake said:

One delivered by democracy.

Imo it's a beautiful thing.

And a beacon to those who don't have the luxury .

 

 

 

I've no issue  with the vote, it happened, the result was given. Here we are. 

 

But the manner in which this has been delivered is shocking. Its a complete and utter ****ing shambles. Nobody is getting what they actually voted for, how can folk be okay with that? 

 

You cant be anymore happy with the past two years than a remainer? 

[Don Dan]

Even a General Election won’t solve this mess.