Hard Brexit

[shaun.lawson]

33 minutes ago, The Comedian said:

 

Is it actually possible to leave the EU in your view?

 

With such insurmountable challenges (as some see it) it's not right that a nation is essentially trapped in it.

 

It's absolutely possible. But only through an honest campaign and honest, detailed, frank discussion afterwards. 

[jake]

3 hours ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Astoundingly few voters gave the remotest thought to Northern Ireland and the Irish border when voting. I don't think NI was ever seriously mentioned at any point during the laughable, fraudulent, mendacious, disgraceful campaign. Did you give any thought to it? 

 

Oh, and to give two examples among many, Welsh people voting to make themselves much poorer and Sunderland voters voting to make themselves much poorer are thick. Breathtakingly thick. They've made their own lives worse, the lives of their families worse, the lives of their friends worse, the lives of local businesses worse. And for what? Bendy ****ing bananas? That is the definition of thick. 

 

"I'm so unhappy with the status quo that I'm going to set myself on fire to protest". Ridiculous. 

I think it's fair to say this post sums up the intellectual capacity of Shaun.

 

Not very impressive.

 

I especially like the fraudulent mendacious and disgraceful part.

 

Oooo the indignation .

?

Edited April 7, 2018 by jake

[shaun.lawson]

Just now, jake said:

I think it's fair to say this post sums up the intellectual capacity of Shaun.

 

Not very impressive.

 

When people are going on the BBC and saying they voted out "to get rid of the Muslims", what is their intellectual capacity Jake? And more to the point, what is yours?

[jake]

1 hour ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

It's absolutely possible. But only through an honest campaign and honest, detailed, frank discussion afterwards. 

Honest like the scaremongering on a weekly basis .

Aye right then.

[shaun.lawson]

Just now, jake said:

Honest like the scaremongering on a weekly basis .

Aye right then.

 

The campaign was a total joke from both sides. Any discussion of nuance or detail just wasn't cricket, apparently.

[shaun.lawson]

4 minutes ago, jake said:

I think it's fair to say this post sums up the intellectual capacity of Shaun.

 

Not very impressive.

 

I especially like the fraudulent mendacious and disgraceful part.

 

Oooo the indignation .

?

 

350m a week for the NHS.

 

"Absolutely no-one is talking about us leaving the single market".

 

"We can reach a deal with the EU in an afternoon".

 

"Turkey will be joining the EU".

 

And no mention - at all - of Northern Ireland: which you seem to display zero awareness of even now.

 

Disgraceful, fraudulent, mendacious... and in terms of its funding, quite likely criminal too. 

[jake]

7 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

350m a week for the NHS.

 

"Absolutely no-one is talking about us leaving the single market".

 

"We can reach a deal with the EU in an afternoon".

 

"Turkey will be joining the EU".

 

And no mention - at all - of Northern Ireland: which you seem to display zero awareness of even now.

 

Disgraceful, fraudulent, mendacious... and in terms of its funding, quite likely criminal too. 

So no politicians warned us about the dangers of leaving.

No political heavyweights campaigned for remain.

Only those from the right campaigned for leave.

 

Please don't slag of Sound bite politics then use them as your argument.

 

You use racism as much as racists do to further your argument.

 

I like many voted leave despite shitty arguments from both sides.

 

As for Ireland.

There I think is a political certainty about it's future.

Your scaremongering is just that.

 

Your argument that it's all just bad because you say it is hasn't any basis.

 

And your snobbish attitudes about Northern England as if they do not understand politics is typical.

 

Away and sip yer coffee .

[shaun.lawson]

6 minutes ago, jake said:

So no politicians warned us about the dangers of leaving.

No political heavyweights campaigned for remain.

Only those from the right campaigned for leave.

 

Please don't slag of Sound bite politics then use them as your argument.

 

You use racism as much as racists do to further your argument.

 

I like many voted leave despite shitty arguments from both sides.

 

As for Ireland.

There I think is a political certainty about it's future.

Your scaremongering is just that.

 

Your argument that it's all just bad because you say it is hasn't any basis.

 

And your snobbish attitudes about Northern England as if they do not understand politics is typical.

 

Away and sip yer coffee .

 

As evidence of your "intellectual capacity", Jake, this post doesn't exactly have me convinced. Your failure to engage in any way with Northern Ireland other than a quite bonkers "it'll be alright on the night" is noted. You're just another one who believes in unicorns.

 

PS. I don't drink coffee. 

Edited April 7, 2018 by shaun.lawson

[jake]

I voted leave for many reasons.

 

Similar to my vote for independence.

 

I have had to defend myself against a lot of people insinuating I'm a racist.

So Shaun I spot your sneaky little digs quite easily.

Racism is a serious and disgusting thing.

Please stop using it .

 

[shaun.lawson]

3 minutes ago, jake said:

I voted leave for many reasons.

 

Similar to my vote for independence.

 

I have had to defend myself against a lot of people insinuating I'm a racist.

So Shaun I spot your sneaky little digs quite easily.

Racism is a serious and disgusting thing.

Please stop using it .

 

 

I haven't made any against you since your totally bizarre comments about Sadiq Khan. But with regard to Brexit - nope. 

 

What were the many reasons you voted for Brexit?

[jake]

Just now, shaun.lawson said:

 

As evidence of your "intellectual capacity", Jake, this post doesn't exactly have me convinced. Your failure to engage in any way with Northern Ireland other than a quite bonkers "it'll be alright on the night" is noted. You're just another one who believes in unicorns.

I think after a long history of troubles most Irish I know are glad to see the back of it.

Politics is now where it's at.

I could engage but I'm honest enough to say that I don't know everything.

Brexit is about more than Ireland.

I'm sure the Irish will govern themselves just fine.

 

You on the other hand think you have all the answers .

Why don't you give them a phone.

 

And please grow up.

All these insults of thick racist and loons with unicorns .

 

Honestly 

[Ulysses]

 

 

[jake]

1 minute ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

I haven't made any against you since your totally bizarre comments about Sadiq Khan. But with regard to Brexit - nope. 

 

What were the many reasons you voted for Brexit?

You posted about Muslims then asked why I voted brexit.

 

[shaun.lawson]

Just now, jake said:

I think after a long history of troubles most Irish I know are glad to see the back of it.

Politics is now where it's at.

I could engage but I'm honest enough to say that I don't know everything.

Brexit is about more than Ireland.

I'm sure the Irish will govern themselves just fine.

 

You on the other hand think you have all the answers .

Why don't you give them a phone.

 

And please grow up.

All these insults of thick racist and loons with unicorns .

 

Honestly 

 

Exactly as I thought. You haven't got the first clue. 

[jake]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

 

?

[jake]

Just now, shaun.lawson said:

 

Exactly as I thought. You haven't got the first clue. 

Tell you what you might be right.

But thank fek I'm not up my own arse to think I've got the same clue you think you have.

[jake]

Anyway Shaun.

I shall get back to you.

 

 

[Ulysses]

2 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Exactly as I thought. You haven't got the first clue. 

 

Northern Ireland?

 

Is that anywhere near Switzerland? 

[shaun.lawson]

Just now, jake said:

You posted about Muslims then asked why I voted brexit.

 

 

I posted a video which confirms that some people (probably quite a lot of people), voted for Brexit because they are both racist and thick. I've used this weirdly inconvenient thing to you called evidence to justify my position. 

 

You've responded with, well, nothing really. No evidence, nothing based on fact, a load of whataboutery about Remain, and pie in the sky magic thinking to go with it. Had you provided any substantive reasoning, or even just a single positive thing which will benefit Britain as a result of Brexit, I'd have naturally taken your argument (whatever it presently is) more seriously.

[shaun.lawson]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Northern Ireland?

 

Is that anywhere near Switzerland? 

 

If I didn't laugh, I'd cry. But the way in which British politicians and British commentators interested in nothing more than publicity and making a quick buck have played fire with the Northern Ireland Peace Process has been quite disgusting.

[shaun.lawson]

4 minutes ago, jake said:

Tell you what you might be right.

But thank fek I'm not up my own arse to think I've got the same clue you think you have.

 

It's terrible, isn't it? Thank **** people don't go and see doctors when they've got a medical complaint - because as any fule no, doctors are just so far up their own arse. 

 

Similarly, thank **** people don't bother trying to educate themselves on the biggest issue facing the UK since the war. Because people who do are just so far up their own arse. Much better to toss a coin and hope for the best. 

[shaun.lawson]

10 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Northern Ireland?

 

Is that anywhere near Switzerland? 

 

 

But for Francis' information, Switzerland is in Schengen. 

Edited April 7, 2018 by shaun.lawson

[Ulysses]

Just now, shaun.lawson said:

 

If I didn't laugh, I'd cry. But the way in which British politicians and British commentators interested in nothing more than publicity and making a quick buck have played fire with the Northern Ireland Peace Process has been quite disgusting.

 

In normal times, any concerns about a complex and sensitive issue like that would be tempered by the expectation that senior politicians would have more cop on and would inform themselves better than the average Brexiteer (madcap cheeky rascals that they are).  These are not normal times, however.

 

Ach, we'll just have to muddle through.  The EU has a plan.  I even suspect that Germany and Ireland have a plan (whisper it quietly, though).  The only people who don't have a plan would be the British government.  They need to shift gear, or shift their arses, or get their arses in gear, or something along those lines.

[Sir Vladimir of Romanov]

Perhaps jake isn't as intelligent as you Shaun, nor as eloquent. But your desire to prove that shows a very nasty streak. 

 

For someone supposedly against bullying and picking on others you are doing a poor job of showing it. 

 

 

 

 

[shaun.lawson]

6 minutes ago, Sir Vladimir of Romanov said:

Perhaps jake isn't as intelligent as you Shaun, nor as eloquent. But your desire to prove that shows a very nasty streak. 

 

For someone supposedly against bullying and picking on others you are doing a poor job of showing it. 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think it's asking remotely too much to expect him to justify his position. With evidence, and with facts.

 

If he can't do that, that just goes back to the main problem. The British people were asked to make a simple Yes or No decision about a question, the complexity of which they didn't understand and were not qualified to understand. Arguably, pretty much no-one was qualified to understand it. 

 

So they returned a verdict which, quite naturally in many ways, was the equivalent of "um, don't know": since when, the shit's hit the fan across British politics and public discourse like never before in modern times. To the absolute horror and disbelief of many of our closest friends and allies; and to the extreme detriment of the UK's future prosperity and place in the world.

Edited April 7, 2018 by shaun.lawson

[shaun.lawson]

8 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

I even suspect that Germany and Ireland have a plan (whisper it quietly, though).  

 

Does that plan also involve passporting rights and banks?  

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Does that plan also involve passporting rights and banks?  

 

Strange as it may seem, I wouldn't think so.

[jake]

You see I have a little more faith in Ireland.

I believe they are more than able because of the framework of the peace process .

That the Dublin government seeks to protect their interests is only what they should be doing.

You cannot halt democratic wishes because some few in number paramilitaries threaten violence.

 

Is this what you are saying.

Regardless of your "evidence" which amounts to a couple of interviews out of millions of voters.

It was a democratic vote.

 

 

 

I voted Brexit because I do not believe the EU is a model either fiscally or socially that's workable.

It is in the words of Corbyn an organisation ran by bankers.

I believe in smaller government.

One's that have control over their own economy.

I believe in border control.

Not because I'm anti immigrant but because immigration should be planned.

Where pressures are not felt by the poorest .

Education  housing and healthcare.

 

The single market is a very different animal to the union we have now.

And the difficulties we now experience getting out of it only go to show how insidious this has become.

 

I've argued my points many times. 

 

You wish to remain.

You give no economic case for it.

You merely suggest what might happen.

We were told financial disaster would be the effects as soon as we voted leave.

 

The EU is finished Shaun.

The thickos might just have saved the day.

 

[shaun.lawson]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

Strange as it may seem, I wouldn't think so.

 

This is fractionally off-topic but related, given we're discussing Ireland. What's the reason behind Ireland having such a high GDP per capita compared to the UK? Tax avoidance?

[Sir Vladimir of Romanov]

1 minute ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

I don't think it's asking remotely too much to expect him to justify his position. With evidence, and with facts.

 

If he can't do that, that just goes back to the main problem. The British people were asked to make a simple Yes or No decision about a question, the complexity of which they didn't understand and were not qualified to understand. Arguably, pretty much no-one was qualified to understand it. 

 

So they returned a verdict which, quite naturally in many ways, was the equivalent of "um, don't know": since when, the shit's hit the fan across British politics and public discourse like never before in modern times. To the absolute horror and disbelief of many of our closest friends and allies. 

 

Your second  and third paragraphs are totally superfluous with regards my post. As usual you use 1000 words when 20 will do 

 

My post was in regards your attitude to someone you perceive to be less intelligent. 

 

You are far from the nice chap you wish others to see you as. Trying to ridicule another poster is simply nasty and uncalled for. 

 

 

[AuldReekie444]

The EU dont have a scooby. And realistically, they never will, how could they? 

 

 

 

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

This is fractionally off-topic but related, given we're discussing Ireland. What's the reason behind Ireland having such a high GDP per capita compared to the UK? Tax avoidance?

 

Partly.  It's got to do with a combination of transfer pricing rules and taxation of repatriated profits.

 

However, another issue is the English language, and a related one is Ireland's company law setup.  There are several other EU member states where non-EU companies can operate the same transfer pricing and profit repatriation practices as are available in Ireland;  but they don't have English as a first official language, and they have a more awkward and less familiar system of company law.

[shaun.lawson]

1 minute ago, jake said:

You see I have a little more faith in Ireland.

I believe they are more than able because of the framework of the peace process .

That the Dublin government seeks to protect their interests is only what they should be doing.

You cannot halt democratic wishes because some few in number paramilitaries threaten violence.

 

Is this what you are saying.

Regardless of your "evidence" which amounts to a couple of interviews out of millions of voters.

It was a democratic vote.

 

 

 

I voted Brexit because I do not believe the EU is a model either fiscally or socially that's workable.

It is in the words of Corbyn an organisation ran by bankers.

I believe in smaller government.

One's that have control over their own economy.

I believe in border control.

Not because I'm anti immigrant but because immigration should be planned.

Where pressures are not felt by the poorest .

Education  housing and healthcare.

 

The single market is a very different animal to the union we have now.

And the difficulties we now experience getting out of it only go to show how insidious this has become.

 

I've argued my points many times. 

 

You wish to remain.

You give no economic case for it.

You merely suggest what might happen.

We were told financial disaster would be the effects as soon as we voted leave.

 

The EU is finished Shaun.

The thickos might just have saved the day.

 

 

Yes, immigration should be planned. And here's the thing: it could've been planned at any point since freedom of movement began. Many other EU members have ID cards, which renders it extremely difficult for anyone to stay there beyond 90 days. We don't. Our approach to freedom of movement has been crazy - but why have we taken such a liberal approach? Because our chronically under-invested services demand it. No mass immigration = much worse NHS and unaffordable pensions.

 

Unfortunately, the result of us curtailing freedom of movement is, as well as ****ing up Northern Ireland good and proper, it necessitates our departure from the single market: making everyone poorer, with the poorest most heavily hit. The poorest have already been hit so heavily not because of the EU (since 2007, wages have risen more in every other EU country except Greece, with which we are joint bottom), but because of the political choices we have taken: cuts, cuts, and more cuts. 

 

Housing? I couldn't agree more. So do we vote for investment in housing, to build more houses, for rent controls, for land value taxes? Nope. So much easier to blame the EU instead. The public are putty in the Tories' hands. 

 

We already control our economy in a way eurozone members cannot because we are not part of the single currency. Yet what Brexit means is we've given our sovereignty up. Yes, you read that right: we've given it up. Because the moment we want to sign trade deals with the US, India or whoever, they'll demand preferential treatment by us. Meaning mass visa-free Indian immigration; meaning private US companies exporting chlorinated chicken and taking over much of the NHS. Meaning much lower standards which only benefit the very richest. 

 

Naturally, given all the above, no other EU member wants anything to do with leaving. It's not "finished"; it's getting stronger. As even a medium-sized power, it's Britain which is finished. Finished by its own generally well-intentioned but horrendously misguided public.

[shaun.lawson]

15 minutes ago, Sir Vladimir of Romanov said:

 

Your second  and third paragraphs are totally superfluous with regards my post.

 

 

My second and third paragraphs were entirely relevant to your post. Unless you think "wibble wibble" is a legitimate response when someone wants someone else to justify their position.

 

But he's done so now, so all good. And I really shouldn't be replying to you anyway, because I know your game, son.   

[shaun.lawson]

14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Partly.  It's got to do with a combination of transfer pricing rules and taxation of repatriated profits.

 

However, another issue is the English language, and a related one is Ireland's company law setup.  There are several other EU member states where non-EU companies can operate the same transfer pricing and profit repatriation practices as are available in Ireland;  but they don't have English as a first official language, and they have a more awkward and less familiar system of company law.

 

Interesting, thanks. Is that a model which Brexit Britain could follow, in your view?

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

I don't think it's asking remotely too much to expect him to justify his position. With evidence, and with facts.

 

If he can't do that, that just goes back to the main problem. The British people were asked to make a simple Yes or No decision about a question, the complexity of which they didn't understand and were not qualified to understand. Arguably, pretty much no-one was qualified to understand it. 

 

So they returned a verdict which, quite naturally in many ways, was the equivalent of "um, don't know": since when, the shit's hit the fan across British politics and public discourse like never before in modern times. To the absolute horror and disbelief of many of our closest friends and allies; and to the extreme detriment of the UK's future prosperity and place in the world.

Is there any element of the Remainers' Project Fear that you haven't swallowed whole?

Parliament voted 6 to 1 to hold the referendum.

It is unfortunate for them they didn't get the result most MPs wanted but to blame those who voted as they were invited to do seems a bit unfair.

As for evidence are you really suggesting the video you posted of one Leave voter's opinion about keeping out Muslims is evidence?

And stating that Brexit is to "the extreme detriment of the UK's future prosperity and place in the world" and that Wales and Sunderland will be impoverished are not "facts".

You seem to find the idea that what some might call a hard border exists between (for example) Switzerland and its EU neighbours in the form of customs controls very funny.  I assume therefore that customs controls on the Irish border would not for you be deemed to be a "hard" border. 

 

[AuldReekie444]

You all should start numbering your paragraphs

[Ulysses]

Just now, shaun.lawson said:

 

Unfortunately, the result of us curtailing freedom of movement is, as well as ****ing up Northern Ireland good and proper......

 

 

You need to keep in mind that given his comments about Dublin, jake may not actually realise what role the British government has to play in Northern Ireland.  That's certainly true of a lot of Brexiteers.

 

 

Here's a piece written by Tommie Gorman, RTÉ's Northern Editor, and published today.  It's about the unique role played by John Hume in Northern Ireland's political process, but it also demonstrates how the European dimension was so important.

 

RTÉ News - Hume: The key influence in the Good Friday Agreement

[AuldReekie444]

Does anyone believe that there will not be a political solution to this?

 

Like in the next few years, it all goes to sh£t? 

 

I don't think it will. All i see is people playing politics.

[shaun.lawson]

2 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

You seem to find the idea that what some might call a hard border exists between (for example) Switzerland and its EU neighbours in the form of customs controls very funny.  I assume therefore that customs controls on the Irish border would not for you be deemed to be a "hard" border. 

 

 

Oh, it is funny. It's very very funny. And nobody anywhere (except maybe you) would consider Switzerland's border with the EU "hard".

 

Switzerland is signed up to freedom of movement. So is Norway. If we want to emulate Switzerland, we have to do the same - but we won't. No freedom of movement = a hard border with a country which has freedom of movement. No customs union either just turns what is already a drama into a full blown crisis. 

 

The above isn't "Project Fear". It's Project Fact. Which is why the British government have spent the last heaven knows how many months running away from fact (because they're terrified of being honest with the public) and trying to magic up "technological solutions" which do not exist. 

[Ulysses]

1 minute ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Interesting, thanks. Is that a model which Brexit Britain could follow, in your view?

 

Probably not, because there are two other crucial elements needed to make it work.

 

The first is to have a small domestic Corporation Tax base.  That way, the amount you lose in tax revenue by cutting CT rates is more than offset by the additional revenue you earn from companies relocating.  But Britain has a large domestic CT base.

 

The second is to have access to the EU Single Market.  Ireland's strategy worked reasonably for years, but the success rate increased disproportionately after the creation of the Single Market.  That way, non-EU companies could relocate their headquarters to Ireland, gain tax advantages while operating in English, and sell into a huge market.  Many non-EU companies (for that read American and Canadian) also located in the UK for language, cultural and legal reasons. 

 

In the event of a "hard Brexit", non-UK companies who operate in the UK and sell into the Single Market would probably have no choice but to leave.  For tax reasons, a lot will opt to move to Ireland or the Netherlands.  Ireland has advantages from the point of view of language, culture and the legal system.  Those companies probably only represent about 1.5 to 2 percent of the UK economy - but Ireland's economy is a lot smaller, so the economic benefits to Ireland could be very large.  Whether that would offset the downsides of Irish exporters losing ready access to British markets would remain to be seen, which is why the EU, the Germans and the Irish probably have a contingency plan.

[AuldReekie444]

2 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Oh, it is funny. It's very very funny. And nobody anywhere (except maybe you) would consider Switzerland's border with the EU "hard".

 

Switzerland is signed up to freedom of movement. So is Norway. If we want to emulate Switzerland, we have to do the same - but we won't. No freedom of movement = a hard border with a country which has freedom of movement. No customs union either just turns what is already a drama into a full blown crisis. 

 

The above isn't "Project Fear". It's Project Fact. Which is why the British government have spent the last heaven knows how many months running away from fact (because they're terrified of being honest with the public) and trying to magic up "technological solutions" which do not exist. 

So you seem Remain. 

Do you genuinely think Brexit is going to mean that the UK implodes and everything will become terrible?

 

 

[shaun.lawson]

7 minutes ago, AuldReekie444 said:

Does anyone believe that there will not be a political solution to this?

 

Like in the next few years, it all goes to sh£t? 

 

I don't think it will. All i see is people playing politics.

 

I don't think there'll be a comprehensive, workable solution to all this for up to a decade. We'll all just muddle on in the meantime. But the moment that the poorest voters in Britain realise they've been had, that's when the real trouble starts. And nothing about any of Britain's leaders gives me any confidence whatsoever that in the short or medium term, good, effective policy will be formulated.

 

11 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

Here's a piece written by Tommie Gorman, RTÉ's Northern Editor, and published today.  It's about the unique role played by John Hume in Northern Ireland's political process, but it also demonstrates how the European dimension was so important.

 

RTÉ News - Hume: The key influence in the Good Friday Agreement

 

That's a great piece. Hume is a true hero. It also provides a further reminder of the breathtaking irresponsibility of the Tories going to the DUP for support: abandoning their role as neutral arbiter of the GFA.

[AuldReekie444]

1 minute ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

I don't think there'll be a comprehensive, workable solution to all this for up to a decade. We'll all just muddle on in the meantime. But the moment that the poorest voters in Britain realise they've been had, that's when the real trouble starts. And nothing about any of Britain's leaders gives me any confidence whatsoever that in the short or medium term, good, effective policy will be formulated.

 

So, as it stands, you 100% believe that life for everyone living in the UK is going to be like what? 

£10 for a pint of milk? Constant riots? what do you think happens when "the poorest voters in Britain realise they have been had" ?

[Ulysses]

5 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Switzerland is signed up to freedom of movement. So is Norway. If we want to emulate Switzerland, we have to do the same - but we won't. No freedom of movement = a hard border with a country which has freedom of movement. No customs union either just turns what is already a drama into a full blown crisis.

 

 

The UK has committed itself to allowing a legal backstop into its "departure agreement" with the EU to the effect that there will be no regulatory divergence on both sides of the land frontier.  That means no interruption of the movement of goods or people across the frontier. 

 

There are only two ways to avoid that backstop.  Either there will be a full trade agreement which will cover the issue, or else there won't but the UK will present technological (i.e. non-physical) methods of dealing with checks on movement of goods and people.

 

We're still waiting for the non-physical solutions, and we'll continue to wait because they are nothing more than fantasies.  Which means there will be a full trade agreement, or else a legal backstop that requires NI to be treated differently to every other part of the United Kingdom.  The legal backstop is madness from a UK constitutional point of view.  The trade agreement would be possible, if only the British government would quit carrying on like the Keystone Cops.

[shaun.lawson]

5 minutes ago, AuldReekie444 said:

So you seem Remain. 

Do you genuinely think Brexit is going to mean that the UK implodes and everything will become terrible?

 

 

 

I think Brexit is going to mean almost everyone (except the very richest) becoming relatively poorer; is going to destroy British agriculture; is going to hollow out the tax base as financial services move abroad, meaning in turn that taxes on everyone else rise or vital services simply disappear; is going to mean poorer standards across the board, to the vast detriment of the British consumer; is going to mean higher prices in the shops; and is going to weaken (and has already weakened) Britain's ability to punch its weight internationally, whether economically or geopolitically.

 

I also think it's going to lead to horrendous numbers of people feeling betrayed. As the consequences of Brexit are felt, my bet is the Tories start blaming Remainers for "talking the country down" much more than they already are. In the worst case scenario, this could lead to ultra Brexiteers employing a 'stab in the back' theory ("the evil EU and dastardly liberal elite wouldn't let us have what we voted for!") with dire consequences for British politics and discourse, dividing the country much more than it already is. But that's a worst case scenario only.

 

In the much longer term, I also think it might conceivably result in a united Ireland. And if that happens, then like a domino effect, bye bye Scotland too. But that's very much into the realms of pure speculation.

[shaun.lawson]

6 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

There will be a full trade agreement, or else a legal backstop that requires NI to be treated differently to every other part of the United Kingdom.  The legal backstop is madness from a UK constitutional point of view.  The trade agreement would be possible, if only the British government would quit carrying on like the Keystone Cops.

 

There endeth the lesson.   

[Francis Albert]

9 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

Oh, it is funny. It's very very funny. And nobody anywhere (except maybe you) would consider Switzerland's border with the EU "hard".

 

Switzerland is signed up to freedom of movement. So is Norway. If we want to emulate Switzerland, we have to do the same - but we won't. No freedom of movement = a hard border with a country which has freedom of movement. No customs union either just turns what is already a drama into a full blown crisis. 

 

The above isn't "Project Fear". It's Project Fact. Which is why the British government have spent the last heaven knows how many months running away from fact (because they're terrified of being honest with the public) and trying to magic up "technological solutions" which do not exist. 

Thanks for the acknowledgement in your first paragraph that customs controls on the border between Northern Ireland and the ROI would not constitute a "hard border".

 

Moving on, how do you define "free movement"? Is it as between Switzerland and its EU neighbours the lack of passport controls? (50,000 Germans commute to work in Switzerland every day - movement of people and goods are distinguished)

 

 Or is it a right for any EU citizen to move to Switzerland to live and work on a permanent basis?

 

At present (despite the mantra of no cherry picking and no cake having and eating which has to date represented the "nuanced" EU negotiating position ) the relationship between the UK and ROI is already special. Other EU citizens have passport control on entering the UK. ROI citizens (and others travelling between the UK and the ROI) don't. Why should that change?  

 

[shaun.lawson]

10 minutes ago, AuldReekie444 said:

So, as it stands, you 100% believe that life for everyone living in the UK is going to be like what? 

£10 for a pint of milk? Constant riots? what do you think happens when "the poorest voters in Britain realise they have been had" ?

 

Poorer. And did the UK's poor vote for that? Like hell they did. Many voted for the first time ever because they thought that at last, someone was listening to them. 

 

So what happens when they conclude that every single political party and Brexit just makes their lives ever worse? 

[AuldReekie444]

2 minutes ago, shaun.lawson said:

 

I think Brexit is going to mean almost everyone (except the very richest) becoming relatively poorer; is going to destroy British agriculture; is going to hollow out the tax base as financial services move abroad, meaning in turn that taxes on everyone else rise or vital services simply disappear; is going to mean poorer standards across the board, to the vast detriment of the British consumer; is going to mean higher prices in the shops; and is going to weaken (and has already weakened) Britain's ability to punch its weight internationally, whether economically or geopolitically.

 

I also think it's going to lead to horrendous numbers of people feeling betrayed. As the consequences of Brexit are felt, my bet is the Tories start blaming Remainers for "talking the country down" much more than they already are. In the worst case scenario, this could lead to ultra Brexiteers employing a 'stab in the back' theory ("the evil EU and dastardly liberal elite wouldn't let us have what we voted for!") with dire consequences for British politics and discourse, dividing the country much more than it already is. But that's a worst case scenario only.

 

In the much longer term, I also think it might conceivably result in a united Ireland. And if that happens, then like a domino effect, bye bye Scotland too. But that's very much into the realms of pure speculation.

thanks for reply

 

i think stuff has been getting worse in uk for at least a decade. (and elsewhere)

Underneath everything,  is the major influences that are , imo, guiding change. These things are deeper than the UK membership of the EU.

In quite a few ways, the EU, with or without UK are making an arse of things. 

(the EU is lagging behind USA and other places in Information and Communication Technology, as one example)

 

I think the people feeling betrayed stuff, is just politics. Although this brexit is a new thing, as you say. 

I reckon the politicans will sort it out, with a compromise.