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Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )


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Just now, Dannie Boy said:

 

I don’t know about that but I think your wrong. My reason is why didn’t it happen when there was a majority. 

 

https://fullfact.org/law/can-scotland-legally-hold-another-referendum/

 

way off topic now. ?

Last point from me. The SNP have always favoured a referendum, if the PM says no, this is another option.

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1 minute ago, Dannie Boy said:

 

I don’t know about that but I think your wrong. My reason is why didn’t it happen when there was a majority. 

 

https://fullfact.org/law/can-scotland-legally-hold-another-referendum/

 

way off topic now. ?

Because they never stood on an independence manifesto. 

 

Back on topic... 

 

May can't be challenged as tory leader for a year. If she lost a vote of no confidence, would she resign/be asked to leave, then the tories get their pro Brexit leader to fight the election? 

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Thunderstruck
51 minutes ago, Sooperstar said:

May will stroll the no confidence vote. Unfortunately.

 

She wouldn’t have teed it up unless the numbers were behind her. 

 

The DUP will support her as, no matter how incompetent she might seem, Corbyn with all his IRA baggage (whether or not that is real or perceived) is a non-starter for them. 

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3 minutes ago, Boris said:

Because they never stood on an independence manifesto. 

 

Back on topic... 

 

May can't be challenged as tory leader for a year. If she lost a vote of no confidence, would she resign/be asked to leave, then the tories get their pro Brexit leader to fight the election? 

 

If she loses the vote she’d have to go. Her replacement well who would dare guess that outcome. 

Id favour Andrea Leadsom myself.

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1 hour ago, Sooperstar said:

May will stroll the no confidence vote. Unfortunately.

 

If only those Sinn Fein MPs turned up the day of the vote... ;)

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So.....

Parliament won't accept May's deal, even though the EU27 say it's the best deal we are ever going to get and have been consistent all the way down the line over the last two years.

Parliament also won't allow a No Deal to happen.

Both sides of the house have said that they want to break the 4 Freedoms and close the borders, so that means a Customs Union is also out of the question.

So MPs in general won't accept anything.

 

Either we have a General Election and give the public a chance to vote in 600 hardcore Brexit nutters in every seat in the land so Parliament will accept some kind of exit deal

OR

We have a 2nd Referendum with the option to Remain.

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3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

She wouldn’t have teed it up unless the numbers were behind her. 

 

The DUP will support her as, no matter how incompetent she might seem, Corbyn with all his IRA baggage (whether or not that is real or perceived) is a non-starter for them. 

 

Of course it's real. He's rubbed shoulders with terrorist's for decades. His relationship with Sinn Fein isn't perceived, it's 100% fact.

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Joey J J Jr Shabadoo
8 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

If only those Sinn Fein MPs turned up the day of the vote... ;)

That would be hilarious. :rofl:

Never happen, tough.  :sad:

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26 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

 

I don’t know about that but I think your wrong. My reason is why didn’t it happen when there was a majority. 

 

https://fullfact.org/law/can-scotland-legally-hold-another-referendum/

 

way off topic now. ?

 

 

If they attempted a rogue vote and it turned out to be a no they would no doubt claim, ah but we've still to have a proper iref2. Neverendums.

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1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

If they attempted a rogue vote and it turned out to be a no they would no doubt claim, ah but we've still to have a proper iref2. Neverendums.

Or stood on an Indy manifesto at a GE, returned a majority of MPs and went to the UN? Could happen...

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1 minute ago, Boris said:

Or stood on an Indy manifesto at a GE, returned a majority of MPs and went to the UN? Could happen...

 

 

A wee shame that Britain has veto power in the UN, better get Krankie n Co into the Hague. I'm sure wee Aaamer Anwar can make a good case. 

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2 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

A wee shame that Britain has veto power in the UN, better get Krankie n Co into the Hague. I'm sure wee Aaamer Anwar can make a good case. 

Britain would be dead. Nae luck, but you keep voting for the Saville party.

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1 minute ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

A wee shame that Britain has veto power in the UN, better get Krankie n Co into the Hague. I'm sure wee Aaamer Anwar can make a good case. 

 

Subjegation? Way to win an argument. UDI it is then!

 

Its that British hubris that will (is?) be its undoing.

 

Wouldnt be surprised that should brexit be revoked by a second referendum, you start to see English independence rearing its head.

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Just now, ri Alban said:

Britain would be dead. Nae luck, but you keep voting for the Saville party.

 

Give it a rest with your nasty labels.

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The people voted for Brexit but the majority of MPs don't want it and are dragging their heels at every turn. 

 

There is mention of having a second referendum (just like Wee Nippy hankering after a second Independence vote here) over Brexit. 

 

When did democracy change so that if our elected 'leaders' don't like the result of the people's vote we just have another and hope they get the result they want?

 

 

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3 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Excellent post

 

If it's OK with you, I'll just take issue with the bit where he refers to tinpot British politicians as " tin pot Irish politicians".

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1 minute ago, skinnybob72 said:

The people voted for Brexit but the majority of MPs don't want it and are dragging their heels at every turn. 

 

There is mention of having a second referendum (just like Wee Nippy hankering after a second Independence vote here) over Brexit. 

 

When did democracy change so that if our elected 'leaders' don't like the result of the people's vote we just have another and hope they get the result they want?

 

 

 

 

Sore losers and agenda politics. Corbyn's position actually makes no sense other than to force a GE. 

 

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2 hours ago, Dannie Boy said:

 

Not true she repeatedly said that they would welcome and encouraged to stay.

 

Those words were never backed up by concrete action, so they were nothing more than guff.  Our negotiators asked the UK to set out what their so-called welcome and encouragement would mean and would look like, and despite repeated promises to do so, the UK didn't.  The first place any concrete description of what rights EU citizens would have in the UK (and vice versa) was in the Withdrawal Agreement.  In case there is no deal, several countries in the EU27 are putting in place measures so that British citizens won't lose their residency rights, but unfortunately those rights will have to be a good bit less than what was on offer in the Withdrawal Agreement. 

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39 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

Just paused and fast forwarded Krankie. Sometimes mute is not enough. 

Good input, thanks for that. So glad your mum let you stay up past your bedtime

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2 hours ago, Victorian said:

There could be major traction for a postponement of article 50.     But the EU need to agree to it.    

 

The problem with that logic is that the UK can cancel Article 50 whenever it likes and then reactivate it.  I think if the UK seeks a delay the EU has to agree.

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2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

The problem with that logic is that the UK can cancel Article 50 whenever it likes and then reactivate it.  I think if the UK seeks a delay the EU has to agree.

 

That's what I said Uly.

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2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

That's what I said Uly.

 

Apologies, I thought your point was that the EU would only agree to it on their terms.  My point is that they probably wouldn't have much (or indeed any) choice.

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EU have always said that the UK could revoke Article 50.

 

Whether or not they'd then be happy for us to constantly re-activate and revoke it every time Parliament changes its mind is another thing.

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Nick Watt saying that May is already engaged in deceit and chiccanery in her 'reaching out' across the benches.     Trying to speak to Corbyn via an intermediary and setting red lines to the cross party talks.

 

Total control freak.    

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4 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

Where did I say anything about experts views on  leaving on WTO terms? I said many experts (and it is true of academics and business leaders) have a less pessimistic view than the majority (and in some cases an optimistic view), of the UK outside the EU. It is not hard to find them by googling. But to name just one, Mervyn King the former (and quite successful) Governor of the Bank of England.

As I said they are a minority but majority forecasts about the future are often wrong,  Economic forecasts in particular.

 

As posted above we have a hugely successful trading relationship with the US on WTO terms and a pretty unsuccessful one with Germany on EU terms. Of course that is not the whole story but suggests WTO terms need not be disastrous or ruinous.

 

You responded to Cade earlier in this thread with a riposte to a statement that No Deal would be catastrophic so I interpreted your response with that.

Will reply on your response on finding experts with a less pessimistic deal for Brexit later but with regards to your example of WTO not being ruinous I do find it a limiting example.

 

On a no deal Brexit, Britain will exit under WTO rules and you seem to be implying that we could just trade as we do with the US and replicate that with other countries.

The problem with that is that a number of countries, including the US have opposed the approach for Britain to fast track a WTO deal and split our current tariff rate quota with the EU.

There is more on it here but we’re talking a significant amount of time (likely years) to get a certified WTO commitment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/u-k-suffers-brexit-trade-setback-over-copy-and-paste-wto-terms

 

The issue and main one for me though, is the immediate impact of a no deal brexit and unlike shysters such as Bernard Jenkin, who incredulously tonight described no deal as a “safe haven”, the considered opinion is that it will be a disaster.

To take some examples:

 

Border Controls – Following a no deal, the UK would need to process approx. 250m custom declarations a year as opposed to about 55 million currently. Do you have confidence that we have the IT infrastructure or staffing to cope with that? If we don’t then we are talking about a huge amount of goods coming in unchecked.

Also, smaller firms are going to struggle with processing these customer declarations as they are simply not prepared.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45293962

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/10/05/hmrc_pac_letter_customs/

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/uk-businesses-told-to-hire-customs-agents-if-there-is-no-brexit-deal-1.3605403

 

Road Haulage – permit arrangements for moving trucks from UK to Europe and back again.  There are 2000 permits for 40,000 trucks so how will that work with transport delays and impact on business who operate Just In Time?

 

 

 

Auto Industry – A No deal brexit would bring disruption at the border, remove frictionless trade, so “throwing Just In Time manufacturing into chaos”

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2018/11/no-deal-brexit-catastrophic-blow-to-british-auto-industry-warn-businesses-in-new-survey/

 

There are loads like this and citing Mervyn King and searching on google is a pretty poor response to be honest in arguing for a less pessimistic Brexit.

Also stating that the majority are sometime wrong is a bit of a finger in the air response and hardly a convincing argument.

If you have who can state why a No Deal wouldn’t be hugely disturbing and damaging and refute what I’ve posted above, then please send them my way.

 

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11 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Those words were never backed up by concrete action, so they were nothing more than guff.  Our negotiators asked the UK to set out what their so-called welcome and encouragement would mean and would look like, and despite repeated promises to do so, the UK didn't.  The first place any concrete description of what rights EU citizens would have in the UK (and vice versa) was in the Withdrawal Agreement.  In case there is no deal, several countries in the EU27 are putting in place measures so that British citizens won't lose their residency rights, but unfortunately those rights will have to be a good bit less than what was on offer in the Withdrawal Agreement. 

Guff in your opinion. May stated that they would be welcome I think you’ll find it is in the deal that was voted down tonight.

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Just now, Ulysses said:

 

Apologies, I thought your point was that the EU would only agree to it on their terms.  My point is that they probably wouldn't have much (or indeed any) choice.

 

No probs.    I think the EU would set conditions to any delay.     They might say it's only possible on the provision that the red lines are removed or that there is a referendum.

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Just now, Cade said:

Whether or not they'd then be happy for us to constantly re-activate and revoke it every time Parliament changes its mind is another thing.

 

They might not be happy, but it's the law - and while the UK is a member they can't change the Treaty without UK assent.

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1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

They might not be happy, but it's the law - and while the UK is a member they can't change the Treaty without UK assent.

And each time we ***** about with changing our minds, the deals done will get worse and worse.

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https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-how-easy-will-it-be-for-eu-citizens-to-stay-in-britain

 

After the Transition Period

EU citizens who are in the UK before 2021 can apply for Settled Status – which will allow them to continue living here.
That includes anyone who is in the UK before midnight on 31 December 2020.

Irish citizens do not need to apply, though (although some may want to, for various reason). Their right to stay in the UK is not affected by Brexit.
But it will be a legal requirement for others who wish to stay. Applying will also mean they continue to receive the same entitlements and benefits as they do now.

Successful applicants’ existing close relatives, who still live overseas when the Transition Period ends, will also be able to move to the UK at any point in the future.

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Just now, Dannie Boy said:

Guff in your opinion. May stated that they would be welcome I think you’ll find it is in the deal that was voted down tonight.

 

Oh for heaven's sake.  It's not my opinion - these things are matters of law, and when we asked the British to set out what they would do to give legal effect to their statements they repeatedly promised to do so and failed to deliver. 

 

You see the bit I highlighted?  I just told you that.  And do you even realise the meaning of what you just typed?  The only place the British government actually turned rhetoric into practicality was just voted down tonight by your Parliament.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Dannie Boy said:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-how-easy-will-it-be-for-eu-citizens-to-stay-in-britain

 

After the Transition Period

EU citizens who are in the UK before 2021 can apply for Settled Status – which will allow them to continue living here.
That includes anyone who is in the UK before midnight on 31 December 2020.

Irish citizens do not need to apply, though (although some may want to, for various reason). Their right to stay in the UK is not affected by Brexit.
But it will be a legal requirement for others who wish to stay. Applying will also mean they continue to receive the same entitlements and benefits as they do now.

Successful applicants’ existing close relatives, who still live overseas when the Transition Period ends, will also be able to move to the UK at any point in the future.

 

 

They'll be piling in end of 2020 and we'll be stuck with them.

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3 minutes ago, Cade said:

And each time we ***** about with changing our minds, the deals done will get worse and worse.

 

 

True, though I think the real value of the legal position is that if the UK wants an extension to the Article 50 deadline, the EU27 isn't in a position to say no or to try to force concessions in return for saying yes.

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5 minutes ago, Dannie Boy said:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-how-easy-will-it-be-for-eu-citizens-to-stay-in-britain

 

After the Transition Period

EU citizens who are in the UK before 2021 can apply for Settled Status – which will allow them to continue living here.
That includes anyone who is in the UK before midnight on 31 December 2020.

Irish citizens do not need to apply, though (although some may want to, for various reason). Their right to stay in the UK is not affected by Brexit.
But it will be a legal requirement for others who wish to stay. Applying will also mean they continue to receive the same entitlements and benefits as they do now.

Successful applicants’ existing close relatives, who still live overseas when the Transition Period ends, will also be able to move to the UK at any point in the future.

 

 

Where is the law on this?  You are quoting from a text - the one I told you about - that was rejected by your Parliament.

 

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14 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

The problem with that logic is that the UK can cancel Article 50 whenever it likes and then reactivate it.  I think if the UK seeks a delay the EU has to agree.

It's some article that .

 

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1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

If only those Sinn Fein MPs turned up the day of the vote... ;)

OMG now that would be dramatic.. 

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3 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

They'll be piling in end of 2020 and we'll be stuck with them.

 

No they won't.  Parliament rejected the deal.  The text is meaningless.

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1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Oh for heaven's sake.  It's not my opinion - these things are matters of law, and when we asked the British to set out what they would do to give legal effect to their statements they repeatedly promised to do so and failed to deliver. 

 

You see the bit I highlighted?  I just told you that.  And do you even realise the meaning of what you just typed?  The only place the British government actually turned rhetoric into practicality was just voted down tonight by your Parliament.

 

 

 

 

 Oh for heavens sake your wrong 

 

Mr Barnier said the legal text marked a "decisive step" but added that it was "not the end of the road".
The key aspects of the agreement announced in Brussels are:
■   The transitional period will last from Brexit day on 29 March 2019 to 31 December 2020
■   EU citizens arriving in the UK between these two dates will enjoy the same rights and guarantees as those who arrive before Brexit. The same will apply to UK expats on the continent
■   The UK will be able to negotiate, sign and ratify its own trade deals during the transition period
■   The UK will still be party to existing EU trade deals with other countries
■   The UK's share of fishing catch will be guaranteed during transition but UK will effectively remain part of the Common Fisheries Policy, yet without a direct say in its rules, until the end of 2020
■   Northern Ireland will effectively stay in parts of the single market and the customs union in the absence of other solutions to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

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Just now, JamesM48 said:

OMG now that would be dramatic.. 

 

They'd have to take the oath of allegiance first. Kiss goodbye to their kneecaps after that.

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Just now, jake said:

It's some article that .

 

 

 

It was in the news, jake.  The European Court of Justice analysed the Article and said there was nothing to stop a Member State from cancelling its invocation of Article 50 and the EU itself could not overrule that if it happened.

 

Clever people, the Court.

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Just now, Ulysses said:

 

 

It was in the news, jake.  The European Court of Justice analysed the Article and said there was nothing to stop a Member State from cancelling its invocation of Article 50 and the EU itself could not overrule that if it happened.

 

Clever people, the Court.

I know .

It's clever.

It's like a cooling off clause.

 

I off course see it's sinister side.

 

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  • davemclaren changed the title to Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

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