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Brexit Negotiations

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JamesM48
39 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

He didn't he was using it while making a point to the Irish chap. James is the one who derailed it. Just my opinion though.

I didnt mention anything about Palestine first.  He did.  Its getting very playground talk.  I made my point. Lets stick to Brexit. Plenty to discuss about that. 

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Francis Albert
39 minutes ago, Toggie88 said:

An article in the Europhile Guardian talking up the risks, an article in the Eurosceptic Spectator playing them down. Who'd have thunk?

The Spectator article quotes some independent forecasts, most of modest short term economic impact well within the uncertainty of all such forecasts.

At Christmas a number of stories appeared about a forecast that the French economy would "leapfrog" the UK to become the fifth biggest in the world this year (not clear what account was taken of the gilets jaunes effect) with the implication this was down to Brexit. You had to read some way beyond  headlines to discover that the forecast was that the UK would return to fifth position in 2020 and remain there until 2033.

Edited by Francis Albert

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Toggie88
12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

An article in the Europhile Guardian talking up the risks, an article in the Eurosceptic Spectator playing them down. Who'd have thunk?

The Spectator article quotes some independent forecasts, most of modest short term economic impact well within the uncertainty of all such forecasts.

At Christmas a number of stories appeared about a forecast that the French economy would "leapfrog" the UK to become the fifth biggest in the world this year (not clear what account was taken of the gilets jaunes effect) with the implication this was down to Brexit. You had to read some way beyond  headlines to discover that the forecast was that the UK would return to fifth position in 2020 and remain there until 2033.

You asked who had been talking about food shortages as if it was the first time anyone had mentioned it. 

 

I provided you sources from two reputable publications discussing the possibility published within the last 24 hours. I never made any comment on the articles other than to show that the issue was being discussed. 

 

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Normthebarman

This is going to be an absolute cluster **** of epic proportions. Even as a remainer, I could see that there was a possibility Brexit could have ended up fine if handled properly. Hell, even a no-deal Brexit could have been manageable if properly prepared and planned for. 

 

But this whole process has been one of legendary levels of ineptitude, ****wittery and good old fashioned political arseholery. It's a ****ing disgrace. 

Edited by Normthebarman

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Dusk_Till_Dawn
7 minutes ago, Normthebarman said:

This is going to be an absolute cluster **** of epic proportions. Even as a remainer, I could see that there was a possibility Brexit could have ended up fine if handled properly. Hell, even a no-deal Brexit could have been manageable if properly prepared and planned for. 

 

But this whole process has been one of legendary levels of ineptitude, ****wittery and good old fashioned political arseholery. It's a ****ing disgrace. 

 

All comes down to the fact that people like David Davis started out thinking they’d dictate everything without any comeback or opposition.

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The Mighty Thor
24 minutes ago, Dusk_Till_Dawn said:

 

All comes down to the fact that people like David Davis started out thinking they’d dictate everything without any comeback or opposition.

It started from the misguided startpoint of thinking Britain was some kind of world power in political and economic terms. 

A misconception shared by a large number of those that voted leave. 

Absolutely zero awareness of where Britain sits in the grand scheme of things. 

 

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Ulysses
10 hours ago, doctor jambo said:

That was one hell of a selective quote!

The politicos took a massive stick  and poked the hornets nest.

To use the murder of Jo Cox to try and stop people voicing justified anger is a bit much, frankly.

Especially when the "left"  skirt around condemning Palestinians , or in the case of Corbyn the IRA.

Politicians of all badge are going to have to accept the public were already strained before Brexit- they are going to take so stick

 

 

 

No excuses.  I know where the line should be drawn.  It's up to you where you think it should.

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Victorian

A rarity of a serious examination of Labour's Brexit roadmap on Newsnight,   despite the best efforts of Kirsty Wark and Nick Watney to completely misrepresent Labour's stated position.     Possibly not willfully,    perhaps accidentally via not having paid any interest to it thus far.    

 

It's a common thing.     "Don't know Labour's position... ".        You maybe should have paid more attention.

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JAYEL
4 hours ago, Toggie88 said:

 

Do you know how much of a bad idea that is? We're talking food shortages and huge devaluation of the pound. Regardless of your view of the EU/migrants/whatever, everyone* will be hit by this.

 

*Except the likes of Jacob Reese Mogg, whose investment fund stands to make a lot of money in a no deal scenario. 

I am still waiting on the devastating emergency budget we were going to have if we voted out 

 

 

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RobboM
13 hours ago, Victorian said:

A rarity of a serious examination of Labour's Brexit roadmap on Newsnight,   despite the best efforts of Kirsty Wark and Nick Watney to completely misrepresent Labour's stated position.     Possibly not willfully,    perhaps accidentally via not having paid any interest to it thus far.    

 

It's a common thing.     "Don't know Labour's position... ".        You maybe should have paid more attention.


But is the Labour Brexit position credible?

Throughout the current Brexit negotiation the EU has been clear and consistent on its view of the Single Market. It holds to a line, understandably, that the Single Market is indivisible, not to be cherry picked and comprises the free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour – the "four freedoms. Labour's position of " retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union " is simply not an option when also recognising that " Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union ". After 2 years of living with the simple reality of the EU position it is fanciful at best, dishonest at worse, to put this forward.

The only way I can see to square this circle is for Labour to commit to revoke Article 50. Campaign to deliver a Brexit on the (aspirational/delusional) approach outlined in their manifesto on the commitment that the final deal will be put to a referendum on a straight accept Labour's final negotiated Brexit/Remain option.

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SE16 3LN

 Brexit doom:

 

The idea of food shortages was a media misinterpretation of reports that some foods would be held up or even denied when entering the UK. The suggestion was not that there would be no food, simply that some food stuffs that we take for granted may not be on our shelves for a period of time while the markets sorts itself out eg summer fruits in winter. Panic buying among the half wits who are spreading this story as fact  (plenty on here) may cause some acute shortages of important food stuffs but there will still be plenty to eat if you can afford to buy it.

 

The volatility in the markets predicted even for next week should the vote go a certain way, could cause short term problems but is unlikely to be calamitous. I think we'll all survive downward pressure on the market. However, the city is likely to lose 10-20% of its value, any more than that and it could have pretty serious consequences for some people. If you rely on house prices for instance, you'll have problems. If your pension plan is dependent on property and you're retiring soon, think again.

 

Related to that though, the big threats to our well being from Brexit, deal or no deal, will be longer term. Clearly the biggest is shortage of Labour. If we don't have people to do the jobs that support economic growth and sustainability then the economy will shrink and people could suffer. Anecdotal evidence is that a lot of Eastern European low paid workers have already booked their tickets home and will only return if they see stability in the future (and of course if low paid workers are allowed to return) and haven't found a better life elsewhere. Its worth remembering that 700k Greek Workers have left their country since 2010. On the plus side there may be a fairly sharp increase in pay for these jobs and that would be positive for me.

 

The bigger picture prediction is for the return of global recession (did it ever leave) which seems pretty inevitable now and will happen regardless of Brexit. A Brexited Britain, free from the vulnerability of the Euro Zone (yes we're not in it but we are influenced by it) may actually be better placed to deal with such recession. Nobody really knows.

 

In short, if you're rich you'll probably get richer, if you ain't got nothing you've got nothing to lose, if you're in between hold on because you could be in for a rough ride.

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Cade

UK overseas territories given another three years before having to provide details of exactly who owns all the shady wee companies "based" on their wee islands.

They were supposed to give the register to Parliament by 2020 but have now been allowed to not hand it over until 2023, giving them more time for legal challenges and to find other ways of hiding the money.

 

So much for the UK taking the lead against global tax evasion, eh?

 

(This is in the Brexit thread as a reminder of what Brexit was really all about - the UK running away from the EU's rules on tax havens)

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Jambo-Jimbo
53 minutes ago, Cade said:

UK overseas territories given another three years before having to provide details of exactly who owns all the shady wee companies "based" on their wee islands.

They were supposed to give the register to Parliament by 2020 but have now been allowed to not hand it over until 2023, giving them more time for legal challenges and to find other ways of hiding the money.

 

So much for the UK taking the lead against global tax evasion, eh?

 

(This is in the Brexit thread as a reminder of what Brexit was really all about - the UK running away from the EU's rules on tax havens)

 

Wonder if that was the same rules that Jean-Claude Juncker when PM of Luxemboug did everything in his power to avoid implementing. 

Then again might have been different EU rules on tax avoidance/evasion that he spent the best part of 20 years trying not to implement.

 

Edited by Jambo-Jimbo

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Francis Albert
4 minutes ago, Jambo-Jimbo said:

 

Wonder if that was same rules that Jean-Claude Juncker when PM of Luxemboug did everything in his power to avoid implementing. 

Then again might have been different EU rules on tax avoidance/evasion that he spent the best part of 20 years trying not to implement.

 

Jean-Claude made his name and career out of making Luxemburg a tax haven

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Jambo-Jimbo
3 hours ago, SE16 3LN said:

 

 

The bigger picture prediction is for the return of global recession (did it ever leave) which seems pretty inevitable now and will happen regardless of Brexit. A Brexited Britain, free from the vulnerability of the Euro Zone (yes we're not in it but we are influenced by it) may actually be better placed to deal with such recession. Nobody really knows.

 

 

 

Saying on Sky Business earlier today that Germany, France & Italy are on the brink of recession if not already in recession, according to the latest ecomonic data.

If true, then the Eurozone and the Euro itself could come under serious pressure, bearing in mind that the Eurozone has barely recovered from the financial crash from a decade ago, therefore a global recession, brexit & trade wars could just about be the worst thing possible for the Eurozone.

 

2019 could be an interesting year, on so many levels. 

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Jambo-Jimbo
12 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Jean-Claude made his name and career out of making Luxemburg a tax haven

 

Indeed, and after years of defying the EU, where did he end up.

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Francis Albert

It is maybe also worth mentioning that Ireland's economic success is in no small measure due to low corporation taxes attracting foreign businesses to locate there. Of course the idea that the UK might do the same is demonised as a "race to the bottom".

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Francis Albert
19 hours ago, JAYEL said:

I am still waiting on the devastating emergency budget we were going to have if we voted out 

 

 

An even longer wait for the serious economic consequences that we were confidently told would follow the decision to even hold the vote.

Edited by Francis Albert

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Jambo100

The UK has record jobs record low unemployment.So What is the problem.Brexit was a lie.Watch Ch 4. Funny how the right wing press say it is rubbish.Any court case from the program.

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Seymour M Hersh
1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

An even longer wait for the serious economic consequences that we were confidently told would follow the decision to even hold the vote.

 

Meanwhile in the Eurozone

 

Looks like the eurozone is heading into a sharp recession.
Italian industrial production was down 2.6pc year on year. In Spain, industrial output was also down 2.6pc, the fastest rate of contraction since May 2013.  French industrial output was down by 1.3pc in November, and Germany, which is meant to be the main engine of the continent, recorded a decline 1.9pc for the month.

The eurozone is now seeing a synchronised slowdown right across all its major economies.

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Jambo100

My work 70% E U and will not survive no deal.. Fact

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Jambo100

China is the problem. U.K. car industry is down due To mobility cars cut by 80% 500.000 a year at one time.

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JAYEL
5 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

An even longer wait for the serious economic consequences that we were confidently told would follow the decision to even hold the vote.

The Governor iof the Bank of England came out with some crackers as well

 

Experts 😆 = Remoaners

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ri Alban
33 minutes ago, JAYEL said:

The Governor iof the Bank of England came out with some crackers as well

 

Experts 😆 = Remoaners

I suppose we'll find out, very soon. You probably use the same argument to deny Scottish independence. Oh no, what about our trade with England. Aye, what about it. Free movement with Europe trump's any English trade, plus we spend more on them. Fact.

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Governor Tarkin
12 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

I suppose we'll find out, very soon. You probably use the same argument to deny Scottish independence. Oh no, what about our trade with England. Aye, what about it. Free movement with Europe trump's any English trade, plus we spend more on them. Fact.

 

Mr Alban, if UK p.l.c. comes out of this smelling of roses then me and all of my Anglophile brothers and sisters might just be persuaded to vote 'Aye' to eject Jockland from this poisonous Union next time around. 

👍

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ri Alban
3 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Mr Alban, if UK p.l.c. comes out of this smelling of roses then me and all of my Anglophile brothers and sisters might just be persuaded to vote 'Aye' to eject Jockland from this poisonous Union next time around. 

👍

:42: Dead hurt!

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ri Alban
9 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

Mr Alban, if UK p.l.c. comes out of this smelling of roses then me and all of my Anglophile brothers and sisters might just be persuaded to vote 'Aye' to eject Jockland from this poisonous Union next time around. 

👍

Jockland, Jockistan. Yet if I used the same slurs for England, China or Pakistan I'd be warned. It's funny how that's acceptable. And after all, you could be English.

 

Will I put it to the test. No, I think not.

 

 

Edited by ri Alban

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Governor Tarkin
39 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Jockland, Jockistan. Yet if I used the same slurs for England, China or Pakistan I'd be warned. It's funny how that's acceptable. And after all, you could be English.

 

Will I put it to the test. No, I think not.

 

 

 

 Calm doon, man, ffs. 

Sometimes things could be read as a backhanded compliment. 

 

Edited by Governor Tarkin
Typo

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Thunderstruck
1 hour ago, ri Alban said:

I suppose we'll find out, very soon. You probably use the same argument to deny Scottish independence. Oh no, what about our trade with England. Aye, what about it. Free movement with Europe trump's any English trade, plus we spend more on them. Fact.

 

The lessons to learn from Brexit are not to leap before you look, to have a plan and to be honest about costs, benefits and timescales. 

 

Yet, the Nationalists on here suggest that we don’t need a plan. We have a First Minister who will take any excuse to talk about a referendum - a First Minister who steers clear of any chat about impact of her aim on tax, spending, interest rates, employment, trade, house prices, energy policy, defence, etc., etc., etc.

 

Perhaps, if the Independence campaign had the integrity to present a program for separation it might find more traction. 

 

Instead, every poll in the last year has shown no discernable shift from the 2014 position and that is in the midst of the Brexit ‘carnage’.

 

 

 

 

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ri Alban
26 minutes ago, Governor Tarkin said:

 

 Calm doon, man, ffs. 

Sometimes things could be read as a backhanded compliment. 

 

😤

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Roxy Hearts
On 10/01/2019 at 22:57, Victorian said:

A rarity of a serious examination of Labour's Brexit roadmap on Newsnight,   despite the best efforts of Kirsty Wark and Nick Watney to completely misrepresent Labour's stated position.     Possibly not willfully,    perhaps accidentally via not having paid any interest to it thus far.    

 

It's a common thing.     "Don't know Labour's position... ".        You maybe should have paid more attention.

Kirsty Wark is a Labour lover. Type of disengenuous Scot I can't stand. 

Edited by Roxy Hearts

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Roxy Hearts
1 hour ago, alfajambo said:

 

The future of Britain is in great hands! Ffs. Come on Scotland surely we can make our own way and choose a path better suited to OUR needs. 

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Sooperstar

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Screenshot_20190112-225441_Twitter.jpg

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Cade

They included child abuse three times in that list.

And they mis-spelled "are boyz"

And what is a "fake law"?

 

The chief hi-viz heidbanger got lifted today.

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Ulysses

That stuff is fake, or parody, surely?

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Sooperstar
11 minutes ago, Cade said:

They included child abuse three times in that list.

And they mis-spelled "are boyz"

And what is a "fake law"?

 

The chief hi-viz heidbanger got lifted today.

Don't forget false adoption.

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Sooperstar
4 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

That stuff is fake, or parody, surely?

This is what they were handing out today. Obviously wanted the world to know that they are big fans of 'pentioners' living in poverty.

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Ulysses
2 minutes ago, Sooperstar said:

This is what they were handing out today. Obviously wanted the world to know that they are big fans of 'pentioners' living in poverty.

 

Good grief.

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Francis Albert
2 minutes ago, Sooperstar said:

This is what they were handing out today. Obviously wanted the world to know that they are big fans of 'pentioners' living in poverty.

Obviously they have difficulty in distinguishing between "for" and "against". It is either fake or a damning indictment of our education system.

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Cade

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-Isaac Asimov, 1980

 

Substitute "United States" for "United Kingdom" and it explains our current shit-show situation.

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jake
59 minutes ago, Cade said:

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-Isaac Asimov, 1980

 

Substitute "United States" for "United Kingdom" and it explains our current shit-show situation.

🤣

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Ulysses

If the deal is rejected by Parliament, is that the end of May's tenure as PM?

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The Frenchman Returns

Possibly not in Scotland but I would be rather wary of the yellow vesters in the RUK, not necessarily as funny as they are being portrayed (or not portrayed in London tonight)

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Geoff the Mince
7 hours ago, Sooperstar said:

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Screenshot_20190112-225441_Twitter.jpg

It's been obvious for a while that they are all ex EDL \ Britain First losers .

 

 

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Lord BJ
8 hours ago, Sooperstar said:

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Screenshot_20190112-225441_Twitter.jpg

 

I agree with the suggestions this is a parody.

 

I can’t imagine any group stands for homeless, people starving, child abuse etc. Might stand against it but for it?!?!?

 

However, where was allegedly being handed out?

 

The yellow vest marches yesterday were anti austerity and organised by the ‘far left’. I’ll be honest when I seen them marching and interviewed I thought just a bunch of angry people with not a lot between the ears. Bouyed by their own sense of superiority and singular belief they’re  right (actually left)  and everyone else being wrong and ergo evil. 

 

The yellow vests outside Westminster are a bunch brexit nutter brought together by the ‘far right’ I’ll be honest when I saw them on tv i thought what a bunch of angry obnoxious people with not a lot between the ears. Buoyed by their own sense of superiority and singular belief they’re right and everyone else is wrong and ergo evil.

 

I generally find anyone indulging in yellow vesting in the uk, in the main, to be a worrying character for a variety of reasons. 

 

Im just trying to figure out which yellow vest group this actually pertains to, I assumed the ‘far right bunch’. However, that list is pretty similar to the what the ‘left wing’ march was about according to the crowds!!!

 

Jusr seems the policy is throw some things into a pot and complain about them in angry manner, irrespective of being far left or far right. They all seem to have one thing in common a lack of intelligence or thought and a lot of anger.

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The Mighty Thor

Sunday's full of stories of a 'very british coup' if Maybot loses her vote on Tuesday.

 

I hope not as everything 'very British' generally suggests a ealing comedy type farce of biblical proportions followed by a less than desirable outcome for everyone. 

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Sooperstar
43 minutes ago, Lord BJ said:

 

I agree with the suggestions this is a parody.

 

I can’t imagine any group stands for homeless, people starving, child abuse etc. Might stand against it but for it?!?!?

 

However, where was allegedly being handed out?

 

The yellow vest marches yesterday were anti austerity and organised by the ‘far left’. I’ll be honest when I seen them marching and interviewed I thought just a bunch of angry people with not a lot between the ears. Bouyed by their own sense of superiority and singular belief they’re  right (actually left)  and everyone else being wrong and ergo evil. 

 

The yellow vests outside Westminster are a bunch brexit nutter brought together by the ‘far right’ I’ll be honest when I saw them on tv i thought what a bunch of angry obnoxious people with not a lot between the ears. Buoyed by their own sense of superiority and singular belief they’re right and everyone else is wrong and ergo evil.

 

I generally find anyone indulging in yellow vesting in the uk, in the main, to be a worrying character for a variety of reasons. 

 

Im just trying to figure out which yellow vest group this actually pertains to, I assumed the ‘far right bunch’. However, that list is pretty similar to the what the ‘left wing’ march was about according to the crowds!!!

 

Jusr seems the policy is throw some things into a pot and complain about them in angry manner, irrespective of being far left or far right. They all seem to have one thing in common a lack of intelligence or thought and a lot of anger.

It's not parody. Clearly they meant that they were against the majority of the things on the list. They're just too stupid to realise that that is not what their little leaflet says.

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Lord BJ
1 hour ago, Sooperstar said:

It's not parody. Clearly they meant that they were against the majority of the things on the list. They're just too stupid to realise that that is not what their little leaflet says.

 

Fair enough, but I’m far from convinced.

 

Which bunch of yellow beaters were handing it out? I’m genuinely not sure.

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Justin Z
10 hours ago, Cade said:

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-Isaac Asimov, 1980

 

Substitute "United States" for "United Kingdom" and it explains our current shit-show situation.

 

Having seen it in both places--spot on.

 

9 hours ago, jake said:

🤣

 

Seems like all there's left to do at this point, tbf.

--

 

I'm actually pretty excited, because tomorrow brings the first session of "Brexit: Withdrawal from the European Union" in the Human Rights Law master's programme at Edinburgh Uni. We'll be starting with a look at the political landscape as to how we got here, then branching out into the withdrawal agreement such as it is so far, the implications for trade relations, individual rights, cooperation (such as between police forces and judiciaries in the UK with Euro nations), the consequences of a no deal, and the impact of all of this on Scotland specifically. It looks like a fascinating course so that's basically the only reason I'm keeping it in my timetable even though class is Mondays from 4-6pm :rolleyes:

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