Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Martin_T said:

 

I genuinely think that any re-vote would be too close to call. If anything, those who voted Leave and Remain have simply further retrenched into their respective beliefs. Except for @Francis Albert of course, who voted remain but has spent the past two years passionately arguing the leave case.

 

David Cameron has left an embittered and divided society. Easily one of the worst Prime Ministers of all time.

An unenthusiastic supporter of remain who thinks the losers should have accepted they lost rather than immediately  try to reverse the vote. Also someone for whom Project Fear (just as it did in the indyref) tends to push me in the opposite direction to the one it intends.

 

I agree with you on the likely closeness of a second Peoples Vote (although if the question is posed as "disastrous suicidal cliff edge entry to an era of isolation" or "Remain" then maybe not.

 

I also agree with you on David Cameron. 

[jake]

2 hours ago, Cade said:

Michael Gove, attending a charity lunch in Glasgow:

"I'll be speaking to Steven Gerrard later and I'll ask him for advice on how to exit Europe in good order before Xmas"

 

 

Gove's still an odious little prick though.

? 

No way .

Really ?

[reaths17]

5 hours ago, jamboy1982 said:

 

I actually live in an area dominated by fisherman. Trust me they don’t need any extra help they are all minted!!!

 

the vote should never have been allowed in the first place. All it has proven is that people are generally stupid and vote on things without doing any research. As for your brexiteers who jumped ship. Well they  were mainly in it for what they could get for themselves. Once it became apparent they weren’t getting it they bolted. 

 

I reckon now that facts are in the public domain they could have a new vote and remain would be in excess of 60%

the fishing industry was decimated because of the EU, fish stocks plummeted fishing villages and ports were decimated. 

 

if this ends up as a same as it's always been and we withdraw from leaving, your vote will have just become totally meaningless, they have manoeuvred this to dismiss the peoples wishes, whether you agree or not. if the proposals are accepted we will not be actually leaving, we will have accepted an even worse deal than we have and the ability to leave in the future gone.

 

this is not about the pros and cons of staying or leaving it's about your democratic rights, buisness/finance, people with cash have trampled over the peoples vote.  money has won.

[jake]

4 hours ago, Captain Sausage said:

What a mess. 

 

How is anyone can still see Brexit as a positive thing is beyond me. It’s so overwhelmingly predictable that we are heading for a massive, long term financial penalty in exchange for what? No more immigrants? No more EU laws? Utterly bizzare.

 

We are currently one of the biggest partners in the largest trading bloc in the world. Statistically, EU immigrants contribute almost double the amount to the UK economy than they take out. EU laws are designed to protect the bloc, of which we are a key member and have a significant say in developing these. 

 

While feeling some some sympathy for May’s position, after what has happened this week, she needs to tell those in her party who tried to topple her to ram it.

 

1. Put her deal through parliament. It will get rejected. 

 

2. Second referendum. Cliff edge no deal or remain as per 2015. Postpone article 50 to allow the vote to take place.

 

3. If (when) remain wins, we move forward with the EU. If no deal wins, we exit EU and begin the new era of isolation. 

 

No no matter how this plays out, a significant minority of the population is going to be pissed off. The only logical outcome is to put it to a referendum, so at least we know it is a minority who are pissed off, not a majority. 

 

And before anyone comes in to say ‘wE aLrEaDy HaD a VoTe’, this time people will be clear on what the vote entails. No more lies, propaganda and slogans on a bus. Hard facts highlighting what will happen in the event of the vote going either way. We are so much better placed to make a decision. This is democracy. Preventing a second referendum is the antithesis of democracy, and the only people who don’t want it are Brexiteers, for obvious reasons. 

No more lies no more propaganda?

?? 

 

Wow just wow.

[Seymour M Hersh]

4 hours ago, Captain Sausage said:

 

 

And before anyone comes in to say ‘wE aLrEaDy HaD a VoTe’, this time people will be clear on what the vote entails. 

 

It was pretty clear last time ffs. In or Out. If that's not clear enough then maybe it's time to leave this thread.

 

 

 

What's not clear?

Edited December 14, 2018 by Seymour M Hersh

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

It was pretty clear last time ffs. In or Out. If that's not clear enough then maybe it's time to leave this thread.

 

 

 

What's not clear?

 

The consequences of leaving, obviously. 

[Dawnrazor]

3 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

It was pretty clear last time ffs. In or Out. If that's not clear enough then maybe it's time to leave this thread.

 

 

 

What's not clear?

It's perfectly clear, it's not that people don't or didn’t understand, they just don't like the result. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

Just now, Smithee said:

 

The consequences of leaving, obviously. 

 

We still won't know the consequences prior to leaving. Another vote is hardly likely to shine a beacon on the future. 

[Captain Sausage]

3 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

It was pretty clear last time ffs. In or Out. If that's not clear enough then maybe it's time to leave this thread.

 

 

 

What's not clear?

 

Are you being deliberately obtuse? What the hell does ‘Leave the European Union’ actually mean? No one had any idea. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

It's perfectly clear, it's not that people don't or didn’t understand, they just don't like the result. 

 

Spot on. 

[Seymour M Hersh]

Just now, Captain Sausage said:

 

Are you being deliberately obtuse? What the hell does ‘Leave the European Union’ actually mean? No one had any idea. 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Seymour M Hersh

[Unknown user]

8 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

We still won't know the consequences prior to leaving. Another vote is hardly likely to shine a beacon on the future. 

 

Not the detail, but the quantum of a no deal brexit is starting to become clearer. 

 

Mays deal won't get voted through, and that leaves us with a transitionless no deal brexit, a terrible, terrible idea that all but the most fervent brexiteers are keen to avoid for very good reason. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Smithee

[Seymour M Hersh]

2 minutes ago, Smithee said:

 

Not the detail, but the quantum of a no deal brexit is starting to become clearer. 

 

Mays deal won't get voted through, and that leaves us with a transitionless no deal brexit, a terrible, terrible idea that all but the most fervent brexiteers are keen to avoid for very good reason. 

 

It really isn't. A World Trade deal simply means we will continue to trade with the EU and like most other countries around the world, we will do so under World Trade Organisation rules. And it'll save the country £39billion!

[Cade]

6 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

It really isn't. A World Trade deal simply means we will continue to trade with the EU and like most other countries around the world, we will do so under World Trade Organisation rules. And it'll save the country £39billion!

 

Have you got any idea how steep WTO tariffs are? That would bankrupt us.

[Seymour M Hersh]

1 minute ago, Cade said:

 

Have you got any idea how steep WTO tariffs are? That would bankrupt us.

 

Have you ever got any information correct in your posts?

[Unknown user]

7 minutes ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

Have you ever got any information correct in your posts?

 

Ah right, so you just want to argue. Count me out. 

 

8 minutes ago, Cade said:

 

Have you got any idea how steep WTO tariffs are? That would bankrupt us.

 

It's frightening, it's like people hear a couple of sentences and just stop there without thinking the ramifications through. 

[Victorian]

See Nebulous Nel got her priorities right by concentrating on the criticism of herself.      Then appears to be saying that Junker told her he meant the "general debate".

 

So the UK parliament then.     Which she seems to accept.     Criticise her... bad.     Everyone else... good.

 

Priceless.

[Mikey1874]

Nothing has changed since May pulled the vote. Nothing will change until the vote is lost or something else is put in its place.

 

Still heading for exit on 29 March as it stands. Every day wasted brings that closer. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Mikey1874

[Ulysses]

1 hour ago, Seymour M Hersh said:

 

And it'll save the country £39billion!

 

No it won't. 

 

According to your own Office for National Statistics, the UK economy would be 3.9% smaller under the Withdrawal Agreement, but 9.3% smaller under no deal.  That difference of 5.4% of GDP represents £110 billion of economic output every year.  Because your tax take is more of less exactly one-third of GDP, that means your tax take would fall by £37 billion each year.  It wouldn't take too long for the UK's tax revenue losses to cancel out your £39 billion, and then it's losses all the way.

 

And that's on top of the original 3.9% of GDP, and its attendant losses of £80 billion of economic output and £26 billion in tax receipts every year.

 

[Trapper John McIntyre]

16 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No it won't. 

 

According to your own Office for National Statistics, the UK economy would be 3.9% smaller under the Withdrawal Agreement, but 9.3% smaller under no deal.  That difference of 5.4% of GDP represents £110 billion of economic output every year.  Because your tax take is more of less exactly one-third of GDP, that means your tax take would fall by £37 billion each year.  It wouldn't take too long for the UK's tax revenue losses to cancel out your £39 billion, and then it's losses all the way.

 

And that's on top of the original 3.9% of GDP, and its attendant losses of £80 billion of economic output and £26 billion in tax receipts every year.

 

 

Maybe right. You're a great statistician after all.

 

In that case as we're going to be piss poor after a no-deal exit, can we get the bail out money back we gave your country when your economy went tits up at the last crash?

[The Mighty Thor]

22 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No it won't. 

 

According to your own Office for National Statistics, the UK economy would be 3.9% smaller under the Withdrawal Agreement, but 9.3% smaller under no deal.  That difference of 5.4% of GDP represents £110 billion of economic output every year.  Because your tax take is more of less exactly one-third of GDP, that means your tax take would fall by £37 billion each year.  It wouldn't take too long for the UK's tax revenue losses to cancel out your £39 billion, and then it's losses all the way.

 

And that's on top of the original 3.9% of GDP, and its attendant losses of £80 billion of economic output and £26 billion in tax receipts every year.

 

Ooft

[Dawnrazor]

25 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No it won't. 

 

According to your own Office for National Statistics, the UK economy would be 3.9% smaller under the Withdrawal Agreement, but 9.3% smaller under no deal.  That difference of 5.4% of GDP represents £110 billion of economic output every year.  Because your tax take is more of less exactly one-third of GDP, that means your tax take would fall by £37 billion each year.  It wouldn't take too long for the UK's tax revenue losses to cancel out your £39 billion, and then it's losses all the way.

 

And that's on top of the original 3.9% of GDP, and its attendant losses of £80 billion of economic output and £26 billion in tax receipts every year.

 

That'll be the end of socialism then, if they've got no one else's money to spend. 

[Francis Albert]

23 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

No it won't. 

 

According to your own Office for National Statistics, the UK economy would be 3.9% smaller under the Withdrawal Agreement, but 9.3% smaller under no deal.  That difference of 5.4% of GDP represents £110 billion of economic output every year.  Because your tax take is more of less exactly one-third of GDP, that means your tax take would fall by £37 billion each year.  It wouldn't take too long for the UK's tax revenue losses to cancel out your £39 billion, and then it's losses all the way.

 

And that's on top of the original 3.9% of GDP, and its attendant losses of £80 billion of economic output and £26 billion in tax receipts every year.

 

A brilliant mix of apples and pears  worthy of Project Fear. The £39m is an up front real sum of money. The other figures are forecasts over a 15 year period. The 3.9% represents a reduction in GDP growth of about 0.2% per year over 15 years. the 9.3% a reduction of about half a percent per year over 15 years. There are to put it mildly significant uncertainties in forecasting GDP growth even one or two years (even one or two quarters out) let alone 15 years out. Leave or Remain, the UK GDP in 15 years time will be influenced more by things other than our Remaining or Leaving.

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

A brilliant mix of apples and pears  worthy of Project Fear. The £39m is an up front real sum of money. The other figures are forecasts over a 15 year period. The 3.9% represents a reduction in GDP growth of about 0.2% per year over 15 years. the 9.3% a reduction of about half a percent per year over 15 years. There are to put it mildly significant uncertainties in forecasting GDP growth even one or two years (even one or two quarters out) let alone 15 years out. Leave or Remain, the UK GDP in 15 years time will be influenced more by things other than our Remaining or Leaving.

Do you think a no deal brexit is a good idea?

[Ulysses]

11 minutes ago, Trapper John McIntyre said:

 

Maybe right. You're a great statistician after all.

 

In that case as we're going to be piss poor after a no-deal exit, can we get the bail out money back we gave your country when your economy went tits up at the last crash?

 

Three thoughts occur to me.

 

First, I saw Bertie Ahern, former Taoiseach, run out much of the same economic commentary on a TV programme here.  He was asked a question about why he thought that way, and he pointed out that these weren't his thoughts and numbers - they were the UK's official statistics and analysis.  Likewise, what I posted above has nothing to do with my thinking or my calculation, they are your country's official data and analysis.

 

Secondly, the UK didn't give Ireland anything.  The UK lent Ireland money on which Ireland has paid interest and on which Ireland will continue to pay interest until the loan matures and is repaid.  In 2017, Ireland saved interest by repaying IMF, Swedish and Danish loans early.  Ireland sought to make an early repayment to the UK, but discovered that this would have triggered a penalty clause rather than saving money, so Ireland decided not to repay the UK early.

 

The third I'll keep to myself.   

 

[Ulysses]

11 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Do you think a no deal brexit is a good idea?

 

Nobody (in their right mind at any rate) thinks a no deal Brexit is a good idea.

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, Ulysses said:

 

Nobody (in their right mind at any rate) thinks a no deal Brexit is a good idea.

Lots do, you may not but there's plenty of business savy people who are not worried, I'll listen to them I think. 

[Ulysses]

Just now, Dawnrazor said:

Lots do, you may not but there's plenty of business savy people who are not worried, I'll listen to them I think. 

 

I forgot about Jacob Rees-Mogg who shifted his businesses to Dublin and Amsterdam.  He's in his right mind, and he'd be happy with no deal.  But then he's a disaster capitalist.

 

So, you're quite correct.  Only some people who think their companies might gain at the expense of others think a no deal Brexit is a good idea. 

 

Did I mention the three million jobs?

[Dawnrazor]

2 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

I forgot about Jacob Rees-Mogg who shifted his businesses to Dublin and Amsterdam.  He's in his right mind, and he'd be happy with no deal.  But then he's a disaster capitalist.

 

So, you're quite correct.  Only some people who think their companies might gain at the expense of others think a no deal Brexit is a good idea. 

 

Did I mention the three million jobs?

Now don't be silly, you know fine well there are knowledgeable business people who are for it not Jacob Rees Mogg. As far as the "3 million jobs"?? I'll just refer you to Francis Albert's reply to your earlier wildly skewed "project feer" figures. 

[The Mighty Thor]

8 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Lots do, you may not but there's plenty of business savy people who are not worried, I'll listen to them I think. 

Business savy people think of themselves only. Unless you have a business which stands to gain from the chaos then you'd probably be best not to listen to them as they won't give a single shiny shite about you or your future. 

 

[JudyJudyJudy]

If it is a no deal There are literally thousands of community projects and science projects ( at Universities) which would lose their funding and surely small businesses as well as larger ones would be badly hit?   Im more angry about the ending of the freedom of movement , in particular for younger people who wont have the same opportunities that I have had.  I wonder how some Brexiters will feel when house prices fall by the projected 30 per cent ? 

[Dawnrazor]

1 minute ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Business savy people think of themselves only. Unless you have a business which stands to gain from the chaos then you'd probably be best not to listen to them as they won't give a single shiny shite about you or your future. 

 

Utter utter pish. 

[The Mighty Thor]

7 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

  I wonder how some Brexiters will feel when house prices fall by the projected 30 per cent ? 

Prices are already falling sharply in London and the South East. 

Wait til interest rates shoot up and the housing market will be a pretty grim place. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by The Mighty Thor

[Ulysses]

13 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Now don't be silly, you know fine well there are knowledgeable business people who are for it not Jacob Rees Mogg. As far as the "3 million jobs"?? I'll just refer you to Francis Albert's reply to your earlier wildly skewed "project feer" figures. 

 

They're not my figures, and not my analysis.  They're published by your own Office for National Statistics.  All I'm doing is saying what the figures are.  I've referred you to rational, fact-based analysis published by an independent agency.  You've referred me to someone else on JKB who seems to agree with you and offered "a fella told me that a fella told him" stuff.  Where's your actual data and analysis to counter what your Office for National Statistics published? 

 

 

[Unknown user]

19 minutes ago, Dawnrazor said:

Now don't be silly, you know fine well there are knowledgeable business people who are for it not Jacob Rees Mogg. As far as the "3 million jobs"?? I'll just refer you to Francis Albert's reply to your earlier wildly skewed "project feer" figures. 

 

Cool, you got some quotes from credible business sources that say they think a no deal brexit is a good idea?

 

Ideally, they'd be convincing arguments dealing with the huge logistic headaches and costs we'd face rather than just being bluster, but let's see what you start with

[Trapper John McIntyre]

36 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

Three thoughts occur to me.

 

First, I saw Bertie Ahern, former Taoiseach, run out much of the same economic commentary on a TV programme here.  He was asked a question about why he thought that way, and he pointed out that these weren't his thoughts and numbers - they were the UK's official statistics and analysis.  Likewise, what I posted above has nothing to do with my thinking or my calculation, they are your country's official data and analysis.

 

Secondly, the UK didn't give Ireland anything.  The UK lent Ireland money on which Ireland has paid interest and on which Ireland will continue to pay interest until the loan matures and is repaid.  In 2017, Ireland saved interest by repaying IMF, Swedish and Danish loans early.  Ireland sought to make an early repayment to the UK, but discovered that this would have triggered a penalty clause rather than saving money, so Ireland decided not to repay the UK early.

 

The third I'll keep to myself.   

 

 

So we did get you out the shite then.

 

Fancy that, we even charged you interest.

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, Trapper John McIntyre said:

 

So we did get you out the shite then.

 

Fancy that, we even charged you interest.

 

[The Mighty Thor]

3 minutes ago, Trapper John McIntyre said:

 

So we did get you out the shite then.

 

Fancy that, we even charged you interest.

 

At the minute the Irish are standing by watching the UK take a JCB to a hole that Cameron started with a shovel.

 

There's plenty interest and quite a bit of incredulity.

 

[Francis Albert]

50 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Do you think a no deal brexit is a good idea?

Do you think deflection is a good idea?

But to answer it rather depends on what the alternatives are.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Just now, The Mighty Thor said:

 

At the minute the Irish are standing by watching the UK take a JCB to a hole that Cameron started with a shovel.

 

There's plenty interest and quite a bit of incredulity.

 

 

Considering their economy is almost totally reliant on the UK, lets hope they never have to ask us for a loan again either way.

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Do you think deflection is a good idea?

But to answer it rather depends on what the alternatives are.

Who's deflecting? That's the conversation you came into.

[Ulysses]

Just now, The Mighty Thor said:

 

At the minute the Irish are standing by watching the UK take a JCB to a hole that Cameron started with a shovel.

 

There's plenty interest and quite a bit of incredulity.

 

 

There's also some concern.  Even an agreed Brexit costs us all economic output, so it's a serious matter, but a no-deal crash out is worse for everyone including the United Kingdom.  If people who support Brexit want to make cheap and economically irrelevant jibes to give them a quick serotonin boost that's up to them, but it won't stop no deal being a bad outcome for the UK and ultimately for them.

[Ulysses]

3 minutes ago, Trapper John McIntyre said:

 

Considering their economy is almost totally reliant on the UK, lets hope they never have to ask us for a loan again either way.

 

Gift.  Didn't you say it was a gift? 

[Francis Albert]

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

Who's deflecting? That's the conversation you came into.

Your reply had nothing to do with the post you were replying to.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

Gift.  Didn't you say it was a gift? 

 

No. I didn't use that word.

 

Check my post again for clarification on the point if you need reassurance. I wouldn't want you to appear nebulous or imprecise.

 

 

 

[Brighton Jambo]

32 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

If it is a no deal There are literally thousands of community projects and science projects ( at Universities) which would lose their funding and surely small businesses as well as larger ones would be badly hit?   Im more angry about the ending of the freedom of movement , in particular for younger people who wont have the same opportunities that I have had.  I wonder how some Brexiters will feel when house prices fall by the projected 30 per cent ? 

I’m a remainer but come on.  British youngsters will still get the chance to live and work in Europe. Thousands do it every year in Australia which is literally on the other side of the world and has very strict border controls.  Young Europeans will want to work in Britain and we agree a reciprocal arrangement.  

 

And why would house prices drop by 30%.  Utter utter scaremongering.  You are turning me into a leaver.  

[Trapper John McIntyre]

10 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

 

There's also some concern.  Even an agreed Brexit costs us all economic output, so it's a serious matter, but a no-deal crash out is worse for everyone including the United Kingdom.  If people who support Brexit want to make cheap and economically irrelevant jibes to give them a quick serotonin boost that's up to them, but it won't stop no deal being a bad outcome for the UK and ultimately for them.

 

That's a big word.

 

We better hurry up and call in our loans including yours then as we're all going to be paupers pretty soon.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Trapper John McIntyre

[Ulysses]

5 minutes ago, Trapper John McIntyre said:

 

No. I didn't use that word.

 

Check my post again for clarification on the point if you need reassurance. I wouldn't want you to appear nebulous or imprecise.

 

 

 

 

You said "gave".  If you meant "lend", you should have said that.

 

Anyway, any chance of a bit of economic analysis from you? 

 

[Ulysses]

8 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

You are turning me into a leaver.  

 

You're leaving anyway.

[Trapper John McIntyre]

Just now, Ulysses said:

 

You said "gave".  If you meant "lend", you should have said that.

 

Anyway, any chance of a bit of economic analysis from you? 

 

 

What's a few million between friends?