Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

[JudyJudyJudy]

I voted remain and accepted the decision but Now i do feel that a second referendum is now the only option.  People now have a much fuller understanding of the consequences of leaving as they has been so much information about it.  However the hard line Breixters couldn't give a damn about the economic madness/ loss of jobs/ not being allowed to live and work in Europe etc as long as them " pesky immigrants " are allowed in.    Its  a collective " cutting their nose off to spite their face". 

[SE16 3LN]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

Last week, Japan changed their constitution and relaxed immigration laws to allow more overseas workers in.

Then they signed a trade deal with the EU.

 

Join ze dots.

 

 

  So the EU is getting more selective and dumping the rest on Japan. 

[Francis Albert]

10 minutes ago, JamesM48 said:

I voted remain and accepted the decision but Now i do feel that a second referendum is now the only option.  People now have a much fuller understanding of the consequences of leaving as they has been so much information about it.  However the hard line Breixters couldn't give a damn about the economic madness/ loss of jobs/ not being allowed to live and work in Europe etc as long as them " pesky immigrants " are allowed in.    Its  a collective " cutting their nose off to spite their face". 

Why would people from the UK not be allowed to work and live in Europe?

[Unknown user]

29 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Is there any evidence that the 27 would be willing to extend Article 50. Ien't seem any

One think that strikes me about the whole parliamentary  debate and indeed beyond parliament is that in some way the UK has sovereign control of the outcome. For example the idea that a UK general election and a Corbyn government would be able to negotiate a better deal is surely pure fantasy.

The EU don't want a no deal brexit either, but at the end of the day if they don't extend we can revoke article 50 then reinvoke it again, starting the two year notice period again

[JudyJudyJudy]

16 minutes ago, Francis Albert said:

Why would people from the UK not be allowed to work and live in Europe?

Sorry my error .  It will far more restricted . Just now there are no restrictions as such.  Money may come into play for those who want to come to the UK.  So tough luck for poorer  immigrants who may wish to better their lives in the UK it seems. 

[Francis Albert]

18 minutes ago, Smithee said:

The EU don't want a no deal brexit either, but at the end of the day if they don't extend we can revoke article 50 then reinvoke it again, starting the two year notice period again

And we'd get a better deal by doing that?

 

[Mikey1874]

Well this will get the Deal over the line

 

Draft revised EU statement on Backstop

 

"The backstop does not represent a desirable outcome for  the EU. It is only intended as an insurance policy to prevent a Hard Border on the island of Ireland...

 

"If triggered it would only apply temporarily unless and until it is superseded by an alternative agreement...it would only be in place for a short period and only as long as strictly necessary" 

[Cade]

You do know that the Home Office is making preparations for UK citizens working in the EU who may have to return to the UK due to trouble getting new work Visas in a no-deal scenario?

That's what comes of the UK insisting on shutting the borders. It works both ways.

 

[AlphonseCapone]

30 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

Well this will get the Deal over the line

 

Draft revised EU statement on Backstop

 

"The backstop does not represent a desirable outcome for  the EU. It is only intended as an insurance policy to prevent a Hard Border on the island of Ireland...

 

"If triggered it would only apply temporarily unless and until it is superseded by an alternative agreement...it would only be in place for a short period and only as long as strictly necessary" 

 

Same as has been said a million times already and legally toothless. 

[jake]

2 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

on meeting a Polish person who doesnt work in Edinburgh !

As far as I can make out non UK EU citizens make up around 6.8 % of the workforce.

The same non UK EU citizens account for 3% of benefit claimants.

This did not count the tax credit claims or pensions.

Not that I voted on this .

But you and others peddling myth after myth and trying to belittle the lower white brexit trash basically talk utter shite.

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Cade said:

You do know that the Home Office is making preparations for UK citizens working in the EU who may have to return to the UK due to trouble getting new work Visas in a no-deal scenario?

That's what comes of the UK insisting on shutting the borders. It works both ways.

 

Sorry but when did the UK insist on shutting any borders?

[Francis Albert]

1 hour ago, Mikey1874 said:

Well this will get the Deal over the line

 

Draft revised EU statement on Backstop

 

"The backstop does not represent a desirable outcome for  the EU. It is only intended as an insurance policy to prevent a Hard Border on the island of Ireland...

 

"If triggered it would only apply temporarily unless and until it is superseded by an alternative agreement...it would only be in place for a short period and only as long as strictly necessary" 

Meaningless drivel.

[AlimOzturk]

2 hours ago, Smithee said:

The EU don't want a no deal brexit either, but at the end of the day if they don't extend we can revoke article 50 then reinvoke it again, starting the two year notice period again

 

We shouldn't be allowed to do that TBH. 

[jake]

 

 

3 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

it will appease the Brexit mob by stating " those with a Brown skin" will find it much more difficult to gain entry to the UK.....

 

 

More pish.

[Francis Albert]

2 hours ago, JamesM48 said:

Sorry my error .  It will far more restricted . Just now there are no restrictions as such.  Money may come into play for those who want to come to the UK.  So tough luck for poorer  immigrants who may wish to better their lives in the UK it seems. 

And even more poor luck for even poorer immigrants from outside the EU if we remain. The EU is a rich man's  club on many levels.

[Unknown user]

3 hours ago, Francis Albert said:

And we'd get a better deal by doing that?

 

I was responding  to this of course

"Is there any evidence that the 27 would be willing to extend Article 50"

 

They don't need to be willing, I'm just saying that it's within our power to effectively do it ourselves.

[Unknown user]

1 hour ago, AlimOzturk said:

 

We shouldn't be allowed to do that TBH. 

 

There's a whole bunch of things that shouldn't be allowed in this whole sorry saga, but it would be utterly remiss not to consider this move if it benefited us. 

 

That said, I'd be surprised if the EU 27 dug their heels in over an extension of it was requested. There simply isn't a good reason to say no, a smooth, agreed, transition is in their best interests too.

 

 

[Francis Albert]

7 minutes ago, Smithee said:

I was responding  to this of course

"Is there any evidence that the 27 would be willing to extend Article 50"

 

They don't need to be willing, I'm just saying that it's within our power to effectively do it ourselves.

Agreed. We can ask it ourselves.

[jake]

1 hour ago, Francis Albert said:

And even more poor luck for even poorer immigrants from outside the EU if we remain. The EU is a rich man's  club on many levels.

It's astounding the posters who post lies about especially the English .

They ignore the over riding policies of the EU.

Austerity and exclusion should be and usually is the mantra.

But they support it at executive level.

It's fekin hilarious actually.

 

But let me not hang around as I the very have unicorns to feed. 

 

 

Edited.

Sorry FA .

I know what I meant.

 

I think you post a fair reflection on brexit.

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by jake

[Unknown user]

While we're on the subject, this is how I see it panning out. 

 

Brexit will die a slow death.

Between now and March we'll see an utter shit show of squabbling and incompetence and we'll be left with the choice of no deal brexit or extend.

No deal brexit would be utterly brutal so the uk will extend, either with the blessing of the EU 27 or by the mechanism above, and another 2 year period will start. 

 

At the end of that, we'll be 4 years down the line from the original referendum and there'll be a much stronger argument for checking the current will of the people. After all it'll be nearly half a decade later, that's 4 years of old voters dying and new voters getting old enough.

There'll be another referendum and we'll vote to remain. 

 

I'm not arguing for or against it by the way, this is just the only journey I can realistically see happening.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Smithee

[Unknown user]

16 minutes ago, jake said:

It's astounding the posters who post lies about especially the English .

They ignore the over riding policies of the EU.

Austerity and exclusion should be and usually is the mantra.

But they support it at executive level.

It's fekin hilarious actually.

 

But let me not hang around as I the very have unicorns to feed. 

 

 

Edited.

Sorry FA .

I know what I meant.

 

I think you post a fair reflection on brexit.

 

Jake, you've got a brain in your head, I really wish you'd contribute to the debate with your opinions and discussion more instead of bashing the opinions of others.

 

I think you've got a lot to say but it gets lost in your "pff, call yourself a socialist?" spiel!

[Victorian]

Of course the UK MUST either revoke article 50 or negotiate a postponement,   in the event that we are faced by a likely no deal - no transition.

 

If we're leaving the EU then that will run it's course in time.    The people who are determined we are leaving will get their way.     But we cannot be dragged over the finishing line in a desperate panic to make a deadline with no regard for the likely or widely predicted damage.      To avoid economic damage that CAN be avoided,    extra time to thrash out a reasonable conclusion is not too much to expect.

 

Leavers don't want it for obvious reasons.    They fear that any delay will facilitate others to reverse Brexit.      But if that is the ultimate and settled will of parliament and hopefully the public,   then that is what should happen.

 

A desperate lunge for the finishing line before anyone can scupper the dream cannot be a better course of action that minimising the harmful effects of leaving.     A subsequent change of course,   if it is to be,   is the lesser evil.

[jake]

13 minutes ago, Smithee said:

Jake, you've got a brain in your head, I really wish you'd contribute to the debate with your opinions and discussion more instead of bashing the opinions of others.

 

I think you've got a lot to say but it gets lost in your "pff, call yourself a socialist?" spiel!

Just a bit wasted mate.

 

[Mikey1874]

18 minutes ago, Smithee said:

While we're on the subject, this is how I see it panning out. 

 

Brexit will die a slow death.

Between now and March we'll see an utter shit show of squabbling and incompetence and we'll be left with the choice of no deal brexit or extend.

No deal brexit would be utterly brutal so the uk will extend, either with the blessing of the EU 27 or by the mechanism above, and another 2 year period will start. 

 

At the end of that, we'll be 4 years down the line from the original referendum and there'll be a much stronger argument for checking the current will of the people. After all it'll be nearly half a decade later, that's 4 years of old voters dying and new voters getting old enough.

There'll be another referendum and we'll vote to remain. 

 

I'm not arguing for or against it by the way, this is just the only journey I can realistically see happening.

 

Pretty certain we'll be leaving on 29 March 

[Unknown user]

2 minutes ago, jake said:

Just a bit wasted mate.

 

 

Get typing when you're up to it then! I think I largely agree with a lot of what you have to say, although I'm also more pragmatic about our relationship with the huge market on our doorstep

[Victorian]

3 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Pretty certain we'll be leaving on 29 March 

 

I think the odds are heavily stacked that we are not.

[Unknown user]

3 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Pretty certain we'll be leaving on 29 March 

Mon then you tease, what's your thinking? What'll happen between now and then?

[Unknown user]

Just now, Victorian said:

 

I think the odds are heavily stacked that we are not.

 

Agreed, I'd be interested in what the odds actually are 

[Mikey1874]

1 minute ago, Victorian said:

 

I think the odds are heavily stacked that we are not.

 

1 minute ago, Smithee said:

Mon then you tease, what's your thinking? What'll happen between now and then?

 

1. Corbyn and May both set on us leaving.

 

2. Managed No Deal meets everyone's basic needs.

 

3. It's the best fit for public view and the potential backlash for not leaving is too big. 

 

4. All the public vote arguments are mainly from people looking to Remain so non starter given No 1.

[Victorian]

Just now, Smithee said:

 

Agreed, I'd be interested in what the odds actually are 

 

Could be worth a punt if you can find odds.     1/2 on it being after Mar29 would be buying money.    

 

I can't see any feasible way if will be done on the 29th.    

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

 

1. Corbyn and May both set on us leaving.

 

2. Managed No Deal meets everyone's basic needs.

 

3. It's the best fit for public view and the potential backlash for not leaving is too big. 

 

4. All the public vote arguments are mainly from people looking to Remain so non starter given No 1.

 

Falls down on number 1.      It barely matters what either say right now.     May wants her deal done.    Corbyn is biding his time as part of a different strategy.

[Victorian]

8 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Could be worth a punt if you can find odds.     1/2 on it being after Mar29 would be buying money.    

 

I can't see any feasible way if will be done on the 29th.    

 

Bet Victor are almost exactly what I said here.   

 

8/15.

 

 

[Mikey1874]

3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Falls down on number 1.      It barely matters what either say right now.     May wants her deal done.    Corbyn is biding his time as part of a different strategy.

 

As it stands we're leaving on 29 March. Nothing needs to happen to make that the case as already enacted by Parliament. 

 

May will not change that. This scenario is possible but still not very certain.

 

1. Vote of no confidence next week. 

 

2. Tories so unhappy with May enough of them vote it through. 

 

3. This is where it is very tricky. I still don't see how Labour can form a Government without an election. It is possible. If it happens....

 

4. EU agrees to restart negotiations with new government and Article 50 is deferred.

 

That is how it can happen

 

OR

 

5. Election and Labour win / form Coalition. But that is not certain. 

[Mikey1874]

18 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I think the odds are heavily stacked that we are not.

 

Again we are scheduled to leave on 29 March. Act of Parliament has established that. 

[Victorian]

1 minute ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

As it stands we're leaving on 29 March. Nothing needs to happen to make that the case as already enacted by Parliament. 

 

May will not change that. This scenario is possible but still not very certain.

 

1. Vote of no confidence next week. 

 

2. Tories so unhappy with May enough of them vote it through. 

 

3. This is where it is very tricky. I still don't see how Labour can form a Government without an election. It is possible. If it happens....

 

4. EU agrees to restart negotiations with new government and Article 50 is deferred.

 

That is how it can happen

 

OR

 

5. Election and Labour win / form Coalition. But that is not certain. 

 

Something along those lines.     Parliament seems determined that no deal will not happen and I think they mean it quite sincerely.     There are a few scenarios.    

[Victorian]

2 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Again we are scheduled to leave on 29 March. Act of Parliament has established that. 

 

I think we all know that.    The law needs to be changed to alter that fact but parliament makes the law and changes laws.

[Victorian]

Nicky Morgan is on QT.     So I'm on so on Newsnight.    

[Victorian]

Mind you,    Newsnight seem to be doing a piece about the Tory-centric aspects of Brexit.      ****s sakes.

[Mikey1874]

9 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

I think we all know that.    The law needs to be changed to alter that fact but parliament makes the law and changes laws.

 

It is certainly the case that anything could happen. 

[Cade]

4 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Mind you,    Newsnight seem to be doing a piece about the Tory-centric aspects of Brexit.      ****s sakes.

Why have you simply gone from one BBC channel to another then been surprised to see a Tory-centric, pro-brexit argument?

 

[Victorian]

Just now, Mikey1874 said:

 

It is certainly the case that anything could happen. 

 

The days after the May deal vote goes down will be crazy.      We're not yet at peak frenzy in parliament.

[Victorian]

Just now, Cade said:

Why have you simply gone from one BBC channel to another then been surprised to see a Tory-centric, pro-brexit argument?

 

 

After the last couple of days,   the last thing TV coverage needs is more Tory soap opera.     I'm not convinced Newsnight are Tory-centric tbh.      Poor choice to devote more time on it though.

[Unknown user]

12 minutes ago, Mikey1874 said:

 

Again we are scheduled to leave on 29 March. Act of Parliament has established that. 

 

Yeah of course, but we can change that whenever we want. 

I don't think people get how bad no deal brexit would be, every port, every item that comes in or goes out of the country has to go through a new bureaucratic process. The new forms that need printed, the staff that need retrained, every factory, every truck driver, every airport, every customs official, policeman, the infrastructural changes, you name it - it's a huge undertaking that'll cost a LOT of money, immediately. WTO tariffs will come into effect, something like 35% on dairy products was the highest as I remember. 

There are costs on a huge scale involved not to mention that tariffs suddenly make us much less competitive to the EU market as well as our imports suddenly costing x% more.

 

No deal gives me the fear

[SectionDJambo]

The vast majority of the UK public must be sick of hearing and seeing the way that our politicians are conducting themselves over Brexit. Who do we trust?

We have Conservatives who are hell bent on taking the country to the brink, and others who seem to be trying to keep us in the EU, causing the leavers to suspect their every move is a devious one.

We have the politicians who told us how easy this was going to be, during the referendum campaign, now blaming others for making it complicated. They say that the EU are making it deliberately difficult. Like the EU would make it easy, so as to encourage other member states to leave as well?

We have opposition politicians who just want to force a General Election, and don’t seem to care about the damage that could be done to the citizens they are supposed to be representing.

It has been said by, many political analysts, that a consensus in parliament for any agreement to pass a vote is well nigh impossible. Gridlocked is becoming the new in word.

We have the likes of Rees Mogg, saying that May only got around 67% of the Tory vote of confidence in her favour so she should go, but a 52%/48% split in favour of leaving the EU means that there is a strong mandate for carrying on without giving the people another say in how we actually leave.

It’s a barrel of monkeys and has shown up how hopeless, self motivated and corrupt these politicians are. It’s gone beyond having any sensible outcome now and is similar to listening to a bunch of drunks arguing with each other in the pub, with the winner of the argument being the one left standing after the inevitable punch up. 

[Mikey1874]

 

[Cade]

Remember that WTO is not an automatic given.

 

Several nations have said they would block the UK from using WTO rules, leaving us with nothing as a backstop.

 

We'd have to arrange individual tariffs with every single nation on earth in a matter of hours to prevent a complete meltdown, and pay any tariffs they ask for.

 

 

[Unknown user]

1 minute ago, Cade said:

Remember that WTO is not an automatic given.

 

Several nations have said they would block the UK from using WTO rules, leaving us with nothing as a backstop.

 

We'd have to arrange individual tariffs with every single nation on earth in a matter of hours to prevent a complete meltdown, and pay any tariffs they ask for.

 

 

Eugh. The fear. 

 

 

[Unknown user]

8 minutes ago, SectionDJambo said:

The vast majority of the UK public must be sick of hearing and seeing the way that our politicians are conducting themselves over Brexit. Who do we trust?

We have Conservatives who are hell bent on taking the country to the brink, and others who seem to be trying to keep us in the EU, causing the leavers to suspect their every move is a devious one.

We have the politicians who told us how easy this was going to be, during the referendum campaign, now blaming others for making it complicated. They say that the EU are making it deliberately difficult. Like the EU would make it easy, so as to encourage other member states to leave as well?

We have opposition politicians who just want to force a General Election, and don’t seem to care about the damage that could be done to the citizens they are supposed to be representing.

It has been said by, many political analysts, that a consensus in parliament for any agreement to pass a vote is well nigh impossible. Gridlocked is becoming the new in word.

We have the likes of Rees Mogg, saying that May only got around 67% of the Tory vote of confidence in her favour so she should go, but a 52%/48% split in favour of leaving the EU means that there is a strong mandate for carrying on without giving the people another say in how we actually leave.

It’s a barrel of monkeys and has shown up how hopeless, self motivated and corrupt these politicians are. It’s gone beyond having any sensible outcome now and is similar to listening to a bunch of drunks arguing with each other in the pub, with the winner of the argument being the one left standing after the inevitable punch up. 

Correct, our democracy is ****ed. It beats me why anyone would choose to be governed from Westminster.

[Mikey1874]

May's efforts to get concessions from EU summarised here

 

 

[Mikey1874]