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Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )


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SwindonJambo
7 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Apparently the cash is agreed but will be announced as a 'Brexit dividend' as opposed to an outright bribe for a shit deal

 

If that turns out to be true then that’s outrageous. Bare faced corruption. Tony Blair may not command much public respect nowadays but he was right when he said power corrupts.   No-one is perfect. Remember Salmond clearing the way for Trumpet Man to build his fancy golf course up near Aberdeen where several people were forced from their long term homes to make way for the course, which loses money. Serves him right.

 

Democracy is 1,000 times better than a dictatorship but it sure ain’t perfect and gets abused to a greater or lesser degree by most people elected. 

 

The upshot is that the vote could now be very close indeed with even some noises from Labour about some of them supporting it.

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Various Tories and Labour will jump behind the deal.    Especially those who 'represent' leave voting seats.    The obvious and mapped out alternative is a long term extension to article 50,   as long as two years if imposed by the EU.    An extension is being portrayed by the vast majority of bed soiling zealots as a stepping stone to stealing Brexit.     MPs will be very worried at the prospect of being inextricably associated with Brexit being 'stolen'.     It's run it's course for some... the time for pragmatism is nigh.   The pragmatism of remaining an MP.

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The Mighty Thor
13 minutes ago, Victorian said:

The pragmatism of remaining an MP.

Ah retaining the ability of keeping one's snout in the trough.

 

 

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AlphonseCapone

How anyone can watch this situaton with the DUP and not think the UK is a busted flush I'll never know. 

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50 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

Apparently the cash is agreed but will be announced as a 'Brexit dividend' as opposed to an outright bribe for a shit deal

DUP have said there demands for backing the deal are 1) no border in the Irish sea 2)significant DUP influence/say in discussions on the future EU trade deal. 

 

The whole process is now being running by the far right loons in Northern Ireland. Ironic, considering what May said about the possibility of a Labour-SNP pact - 'biggest constitutional crisis since the abdication' she said. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3055575/Theresa-SNP-Labour-pact-spark-biggest-constitutional-crisis-abdication-Edward-VIII.html

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The Real Maroonblood
2 hours ago, AlphonseCapone said:

How anyone can watch this situaton with the DUP and not think the UK is a busted flush I'll never know. 

Disgusting.

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The Mighty Thor
2 hours ago, AlphonseCapone said:

How anyone can watch this situaton with the DUP and not think the UK is a busted flush I'll never know. 

It's all about preserving the union at any cost

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SwindonJambo
3 hours ago, AlphonseCapone said:

How anyone can watch this situaton with the DUP and not think the UK is a busted flush I'll never know. 

There's no major shift there according to this latest poll though 17percent undecided seems a lot. Probably waiting to see how Brexit goes.

 

https://www.survation.com/latest-scottish-referendum-polling-survation-for-daily-record-dundee-university-and-better-nation/

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The Mighty Thor
7 hours ago, Victorian said:

 

Still think the price will be a significant input into the future relationship process,   rather than cash.     "Things still to be discussed" probably = DUP trying to have their bargaining chip guaranteed in some way.     The DUP will be as accutely aware as anyone else that the PM cannot be taken at her word.

According to news reports the latest is that GB will adopt any rules enforced on NI in the backstop arrangement. I can see that going down well with the ERG.

 

Closer we get to MV3 the more desperate Maybot is getting. 

 

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Back handed deals, promises on the quiet and without a single change in the deal people are now switching.

 

And there was those that said having a 2nd referendum was going against the democratic vote but this is fine.....

 

This is exactly what the people wanted right enough.

 

Edited by Jamboelite
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31 minutes ago, The Mighty Thor said:

According to news reports the latest is that GB will adopt any rules enforced on NI in the backstop arrangement. I can see that going down well with the ERG.

 

Closer we get to MV3 the more desperate Maybot is getting. 

 

 

Interesting.   Sounds like the advisors and whips have been bashing away on the calculators.    Inc. trying desperately to sound out the Labour back benches.

 

It may be at the stage where she doesn't need all of the ERG bloc.     She's chipped away in various areas.     Menaced a few here... bribed a few there... could be on the verge of obtaining the DUP bloc,   which may drag along some of the ERG,   even with a seemingly difficult change to the backstop customs arrangements.     The ERG has never been a collective of solidarity.    More of a loose cabal of maniacs,    temporarily united by a shared cause.     Some of them will undoubtedly jump at the fear of having Brexit stolen and at the face saving lifeboat of the DUP backing the deal.

 

Add it all up and the 149 deficit could swiftly disappear.    It will be close,   mighty close.

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Labour has done a really,   really good job of whipping against May's deal.    So far.      I wonder how many will chuck it next week.    25 to 30 might be enough to tip the balance.     

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doctor jambo
17 hours ago, AlphonseCapone said:

How anyone can watch this situaton with the DUP and not think the UK is a busted flush I'll never know. 

Quite, Scotland and Wales should be at their door right now.

The government is now in the midst of a shakedown by

"the political wing of the old testament"

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12 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Think its obvious now that May's deal will get the go ahead next week.

 

It's not a terrible deal. It should've past months ago. The bigger battle is the future relationship.

 

The SNP, Labour etc should've offered votes for a seat at the negotiating table to ensure this isn't all left in the hands of the DUP and ERG. 

 

Instead dithering and a short sightedness to their own interests have blinded them to the bigger picture. Independence, for one, will be harder to achieve in a "bad" Brexit scenario. Try selling a hard border at Carlisle when most of Scottish business is more reliant on the rUK than EU.

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45 minutes ago, JamboX2 said:

 

It's not a terrible deal. It should've past months ago. The bigger battle is the future relationship.

 

The SNP, Labour etc should've offered votes for a seat at the negotiating table to ensure this isn't all left in the hands of the DUP and ERG. 

 

Instead dithering and a short sightedness to their own interests have blinded them to the bigger picture. Independence, for one, will be harder to achieve in a "bad" Brexit scenario. Try selling a hard border at Carlisle when most of Scottish business is more reliant on the rUK than EU.

 

And equally a lot of English exports go to Scotland (2nd largest market I'm sure I read/heard somewhere?) and also your scenarion needs a no-deal brexit to come true.  So accept a hard border elsewhwere but not with England/rUK?  Why should we be taken down by those jokers?

 

But to counter your arguement, assuming all criteria are met, wouldn't the failure of Brexit be a good reason to let go of the apron strings rather than cling to it?  They caused it, they "delivered" it, yet we would be too scared to walk away?  Not saying it would be great, but this whole debacle has shown how completely fractured UK politics is - and how contemptuosly Westminster treats three out of the four "equal" nations within the Union.  Nothing will change from Westminster.  .

 

I can't, in the short term at least, see a 

Edited by Boris
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41 minutes ago, JamboX2 said:

 

It's not a terrible deal. It should've past months ago. The bigger battle is the future relationship.

 

The SNP, Labour etc should've offered votes for a seat at the negotiating table to ensure this isn't all left in the hands of the DUP and ERG. 

 

Instead dithering and a short sightedness to their own interests have blinded them to the bigger picture. Independence, for one, will be harder to achieve in a "bad" Brexit scenario. Try selling a hard border at Carlisle when most of Scottish business is more reliant on the rUK than EU.

 

It's a reasonable point.      That Labour and the SNP could have sold their support on the guarantee of a meaningful place in the future relationship process.      Then again... we have no guarantees that such an offer did not take place.     Effectively proceeding on a cross-house basis is not the total control that May lives by.     Consensus is an alien concept.

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doctor jambo
24 minutes ago, Boris said:

 

And equally a lot of English exports go to Scotland (2nd largest market I'm sure I read/heard somewhere?) and also your scenarion needs a no-deal brexit to come true.  So accept a hard border elsewhwere but not with England/rUK?  Why should we be taken down by those jokers?

 

But to counter your arguement, assuming all criteria are met, wouldn't the failure of Brexit be a good reason to let go of the apron strings rather than cling to it?  They caused it, they "delivered" it, yet we would be too scared to walk away?  Not saying it would be great, but this whole debacle has shown how completely fractured UK politics is - and how contemptuosly Westminster treats three out of the four "equal" nations within the Union.  Nothing will change from Westminster.  .

 

I can't, in the short term at least, see a 

2 out of 4 Boris

NI and England are thick as thieves in this.

 

However, I think all parties should be involved and "dewhipped" .

That way nobody is being rail-roaded.

Labour and Conservative moderates, along with Plaid and SNP can join up and sort this out for us all and marginalise the ERG et al for all our sakes

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42 minutes ago, Boris said:

And equally a lot of English exports go to Scotland (2nd largest market I'm sure I read/heard somewhere?) and also your scenarion needs a no-deal brexit to come true.  So accept a hard border elsewhwere but not with England/rUK?  Why should we be taken down by those jokers?

 

Because if indy happens and Scotland joins the EU then the arrangements between the UK and EU govern ours with the UK. See Ireland being in the same boat. It doesn't necessarily need a no deal Brexit - any future deal which includes any friction at the border could also apply.

 

That final point is interesting as it assumes that the GC manifesto is not also going down a road of cuts and managing economic shock on the back of a separation.

 

42 minutes ago, Boris said:

But to counter your arguement, assuming all criteria are met, wouldn't the failure of Brexit be a good reason to let go of the apron strings rather than cling to it?

 

Depends on whether or not you believe independence is the way forward.  

 

42 minutes ago, Boris said:

 They caused it, they "delivered" it, yet we would be too scared to walk away? 

 

A not insignificant portion of the Scottish electorate backed this. And then many electors backed the Tories and Labour in 2017. 

 

42 minutes ago, Boris said:

Not saying it would be great, but this whole debacle has shown how completely fractured UK politics is - and how contemptuosly Westminster treats three out of the four "equal" nations within the Union.  Nothing will change from Westminster.  .

 

Very emotive. Given 3 out of the 4 dont have the same democratic deficit as England. If anything though WM hasn't acted in anyones interests. It's a political crisis. If anything England has less equality as it has less governance away from the centre. I could also argue that issues of democratic representation apply in all nations and that not all regions or nations within unions are fairly treated.

 

For example, will Denmark and some of the other nations who do not wish to see much more EU integration need to go along with that? 

 

42 minutes ago, Boris said:

I can't, in the short term at least, see a 

 

Perhaps. Who knows. It's a political not constitutional crisis. 

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22 minutes ago, doctor jambo said:

2 out of 4 Boris

NI and England are thick as thieves in this.

 

However, I think all parties should be involved and "dewhipped" .

That way nobody is being rail-roaded.

Labour and Conservative moderates, along with Plaid and SNP can join up and sort this out for us all and marginalise the ERG et al for all our sakes

 

The DUP and Tories are. DUP polling is interesting. Suggests it's not an NI / England thing.

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The Mighty Thor
1 hour ago, JamboX2 said:

 

The DUP and Tories are. DUP polling is interesting. Suggests it's not an NI / England thing.

They are really. It's a protect the union at all costs thing. 

Ironic really as the current collision course with the self generated iceberg will weaken the union.

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...a bit disco

Bercow delivering a real smackdown on the govt.

 

Rock 'n Roll politics!

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doctor jambo
3 minutes ago, Victorian said:

He's pied her from bringing the motion back.

 

:omfg:

Intially I didn't like Bercow, I feckin love him now.

Just rammed it right up the ERg

no backing down now ya feckers

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Of course... it can come back if 'changed'.      This might actually play into her strategy as it effectively burns time while they 'change' it.

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17 hours ago, hughesie27 said:

Think its obvious now that May's deal will get the go ahead next week.

 

3 minutes ago, hughesie27 said:

What's the latest?

 

 

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Tradition in Parliament is once something has been voted on that is it. You can't vote on the same thing twice. 

 

Though it has been voted on twice it's been taken last week was it. 

Edited by Mikey1874
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doctor jambo
20 minutes ago, Victorian said:

Of course... it can come back if 'changed'.      This might actually play into her strategy as it effectively burns time while they 'change' it.

they cannot change it

the EU wont change it

that's abundantly clear

they have never said they would allow re-negotiation

 

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4 hours ago, JamboX2 said:

 

It's not a terrible deal. It should've past months ago. The bigger battle is the future relationship.

 

The SNP, Labour etc should've offered votes for a seat at the negotiating table to ensure this isn't all left in the hands of the DUP and ERG. 

 

Instead dithering and a short sightedness to their own interests have blinded them to the bigger picture. Independence, for one, will be harder to achieve in a "bad" Brexit scenario. Try selling a hard border at Carlisle when most of Scottish business is more reliant on the rUK than EU.

 

 

Why would there need to be a hard border between the two countries?

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12 minutes ago, JAYEL said:

Looks like No Deal

 

Not at March29.    No deal (yet) = extension requested.    The long version.

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2 minutes ago, Victorian said:

 

Not at March29.    No deal (yet) = extension requested.    The long version.

March 29th is still the Law

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doctor jambo
22 minutes ago, Taffin said:

 

 

Why would there need to be a hard border between the two countries?

Indeed, the hard border idea is a fallacy.

There is no need for any hard border anywhere.

 

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"No you can't have a second referendum, that's undemocratic!"

"WHAT DO YOU MEAN WE CAN'T VOTE FOR THE SAME DEAL THREE TIMES!"

 

:gok:

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Talk of prorogation to get around Bercows ruling.

 

I have to say i had to go do a bit of digging to see what this was but effectively its ending a parliamentary session and starting a new one and being able to then bring it back.

 

If this does ever get back onto a vote it will pass on the basis of people fearing its their last chance for Brexit under any cost.

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Toxteth O'Grady

So what now?

 

Pull the article 50 notice and start again - 2,year delay or ask EU for an extension and be at their mercy.

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Cruyff Turn
1 minute ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

So what now?

 

Pull the article 50 notice and start again - 2,year delay or ask EU for an extension and be at their mercy.

Revoke the revoking of article 50 ?

Ask for an extension

No deal

Resign and call a GE

Have another Ref

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Prorogation...ending a session of parliment without actually dissolving it..

 

How to does that help overturn Bercows rulling?

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15 minutes ago, AlimOzturk said:

Prorogation...ending a session of parliment without actually dissolving it..

 

How to does that help overturn Bercows rulling?

Not an expert but with a new session its effectively starting again as if the previous two votes didnt happen.

 

So they dont have to change it to satisfy Bercows comments on it being substantially different.

Edited by Jamboelite
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  • davemclaren changed the title to Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

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