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Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )


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2 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

That was similar to the point I was trying to make.  I distinctly remember Cameron in a live TV debate arguing we should stay.  Corbyn a life long eurosceptic was no where to be seen.  

 

But that view won’t land with the ‘all Tories evil, never labours fault’ brigade on here. 


If the referendum had been Remain it would certainly not have ended the debate. Unless the likes of the ERG had been expelled /resigned from the Conservative party and the FPTP voting system would maybe have marginalised them.

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Brighton Jambo
5 minutes ago, RobboM said:


If the referendum had been Remain it would certainly not have ended the debate. Unless the likes of the ERG had been expelled /resigned from the Conservative party and the FPTP voting system would maybe have marginalised them.

Maybe but as we have seen it’s much easier to make the case for denying a second referendum than changing the outcome of one.  

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I've just seen this comment on the BBC which made me chuckle.

 

Quote

I'm not saying this government are a hard right bunch of bigots hell bent on delivering a damaging Brexit that'll break up the union. Some people are, but I'm not.

 

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36 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

I’m not sure if you are being serious?  

 

The reason people didn’t vote for them in big numbers in 2017 is that they had achieved the objective of having and winning a referendum to leave the EU.  

 

When in the 2019 EU elections, by which time the whole will we won’t we leave debate was in full swing, the brexit party came along and won millions of votes again.  

I can only remember hearing Corbyn do 1 key speech (pro EU) during the formal campaign period, but I do recall a claim that he did plenty of pro EU hustings.

 

I either just missed them all, the media didn't cover them, or it was a deliberate Corbyn, Corbyn comms ploy to keep low key as he is is fundamentally a EU sceptic.

 

Edit - apols I responded to the wrong post from you, but hopefully you get my gist about Corbyn and his EU campaigning approach.

Edited by DETTY29
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10 minutes ago, DETTY29 said:

I can only remember hearing Corbyn do 1 key speech (pro EU) during the formal campaign period, but I do recall a claim that he did plenty of pro EU hustings.

 

I either just missed them all, the media didn't cover them, or it was a deliberate Corbyn, Corbyn comms ploy to keep low key as he is is fundamentally a EU sceptic.

 

Edit - apols I responded to the wrong post from you, but hopefully you get my gist about Corbyn and his EU campaigning approach.


Poor old Corbyn. Getting criticism for not doing enough of the heavy lifting to solve a split in the Conservative party that Cameron was unwilling to deal with directly. 🙂

 

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Brighton Jambo
2 minutes ago, RobboM said:


Poor old Corbyn. Getting criticism for not doing enough of the heavy lifting to solve a split in the Conservative party that Cameron was unwilling to deal with directly. 🙂

 

That’s the spirit, never Corbyns fault always those evil Tories.  

 

Once the referendum on the EU was agreed, something Corbyn voted for, he was nowhere to be seen.   Had he rallied labour to back remain we almost certainly be in this position.  He won’t though, he is as Eurosceptic as all those right wing Tory’s.  That’s why he just can’t bring himself to fully back remain, even now.  

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7 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

Good piece by Jonjames today, takes apart Remoaner lies and those SNP three stooges in the court of session. Time to put the country first while we still have a country. No deal and thanks very much. 

 

https://johnjamessite.com/2019/09/12/the-end-of-democracy/#comments

 

The ramblings of a nutcase citing a Tory rag as the souce for his bogus premise.

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Just now, Victorian said:

 

The ramblings of a nutcase citing a Tory rag as the souce for his bogus premise.

 

 

I feel your remoaner pain at being bathed in truths you don't like. Easier to bathe a cat than school remoaners with facts.

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We hope to reach again a Europe united but purged of the slavery of ancient, classical times, a Europe in which men will be proud to say:
‘I am a European.’
We hope to see a Europe where men of every country will think as much of being a European as of belonging to their native land, and that without losing any of their love and loyalty of their birthplace.
We hope wherever they go in this wide domain, to which we set no limits in the European Continent, they will truly feel:
‘Here I am at home. I am a citizen of this country too.’
Let us meet together. Let us work together. Let us do our utmost – all that is in us – for the good of all.
Winston Churchill, 9th May, 1948.

 

What a treasonous remoaner traitor bassa

:whistling:

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21 minutes ago, Brighton Jambo said:

That’s the spirit, never Corbyns fault always those evil Tories.  

 

Once the referendum on the EU was agreed, something Corbyn voted for, he was nowhere to be seen.   Had he rallied labour to back remain we almost certainly be in this position.  He won’t though, he is as Eurosceptic as all those right wing Tory’s.  That’s why he just can’t bring himself to fully back remain, even now.  


Basically yes!

In the 1975 Referendum 58% of Labour supporters voted for remaining in the EEC. In the 2016 Referendum it was up to 65%
In comparison the Tory party support dropped from 88% down to 39%.

Essentially Europe is a Tory party issue and Brexit is the fault of the evil Tories 😋

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

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1 minute ago, RobboM said:


Basically yes!

In the 1975 Referendum 58% of Labour supporters voted for remaining in the EEC. In the 2016 Referendum it was up to 65%
In comparison the Tory party support dropped from 88% down to 39%.

Essentially Europe is a Tory party issue and Brexit is the fault of the evil Tories 😋

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

 

What the heck is the point of mentioning the 1975 referendum? You do realise that it took place *40* years before the recent one. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then, many opinions have changed. Corbyn, despite his Euroscepticism, should have seen Brexit for what it was and reacted against it accordingly at the time but he didn't. It is for that reason alone that I will never forgive him and I regret, despite how much better he has been doing lately, the fact that he ever became leader of the Labour party. The perfect storm that is Brexit heavily depended, and still depends, on his being Labour leader during this period of political time.

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This needs to go to a GE. Now people have more information,and if they still decide to leave with  no deal, that's what we do. End of.

I'd vote for Scottish independence, even if it destroyed Scotland, so i can't really moan about leave voters. Unless it helps bring about Independence.

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Just now, ri Alban said:

This needs to go to a GE. Now people have more information,and if they still decide to leave with  no deal, that's what we do. End of.

I'd vote for Scottish independence, even if it destroyed Scotland, so i can't really moan about leave voters. Unless it helps bring about Independence.

 

A GE, with first past the post, waged on the single issue of Brexit? Not a great idea.

 

I can't believe your comment in bold. You *are* as bad as the no-deal Brexiteers, ri.

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1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

What the heck is the point of mentioning the 1975 referendum? You do realise that it took place *40* years before the recent one. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then, many opinions have changed. Corbyn, despite his Euroscepticism, should have seen Brexit for what it was and reacted against it accordingly at the time but he didn't. It is for that reason alone that I will never forgive him and I regret, despite how much better he has been doing lately, the fact that he ever became leader of the Labour party. The perfect storm that is Brexit heavily depended, and still depends, on his being Labour leader during this period of political time.


My point is that, over a very extended period of time, Labour has had a consistent 60% proportion pro Europe, that Corbyn delivered far more Labour voters than Cameron did Tory voters and that the deterioration in UK/EU is primarily a Tory issue which could, and probably shoudl, have been dealt with as a Tory party issue and not one which has had the consequences we are living with.

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The Real Maroonblood
6 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

This needs to go to a GE. Now people have more information,and if they still decide to leave with  no deal, that's what we do. End of.

I'd vote for Scottish independence, even if it destroyed Scotland, so i can't really moan about leave voters. Unless it helps bring about Independence.

“Even if it destroyed Scotland.”

Can’t believe you posted that.

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Brighton Jambo
8 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

This needs to go to a GE. Now people have more information,and if they still decide to leave with  no deal, that's what we do. End of.

I'd vote for Scottish independence, even if it destroyed Scotland, so i can't really moan about leave voters. Unless it helps bring about Independence.

Fair play mate.  I admire you admitting it and although I don’t agree I can understand your position, I have friends who are the same.  

 

I just wish more independence were as honest as you instead of hypocritically slaughtering leave voters.

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1 minute ago, RobboM said:


My point is that, over a very extended period of time, Labour has had a consistent 60% proportion pro Europe, that Corbyn delivered far more Labour voters than Cameron did Tory voters and that the deterioration in UK/EU is primarily a Tory issue which could, and probably shoudl, have been dealt with as a Tory party issue and not one which has had the consequences we are living with.

 

I see your point, but the problem is that the Tories were unable to deal with it internally. They knew that ultimately it would break up their party if they didn't hold a referendum, hence Cameron's gamble. They are primarily to blame for the whole fiasco, I think we probably agree with that. However, I remember thinking during the referendum campaign "What the heck are Labour doing?!" due to their lack of a strong cohesive message. And top of the pyramid was Corbyn. Even now, he's vacillating. He's no good as a party leader - he needs to be in the party apparatus somewhere, definitely, but not as leader, imo.

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38 minutes ago, JackLadd said:

 

 

I feel your remoaner pain at being bathed in truths you don't like. Easier to bathe a cat than school remoaners with facts.

JackLadd on the ScrumpyJack???

 

ITS A FECKIN DISASTER REGARDLESS OF WHAT PARTY YOU ENDORSE!!!

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3 minutes ago, Cade said:

Boris doubling down on his impossible bridge between Stranraer and Larne.

 

Muppet couldn't even build a bridge across the feckin Thames.

 

 

Which ultimately cost the taxpayers £43 million. :)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/17/absurd-vanity-project-for-our-age-boris-johnson-garden-bridge

 

Maybe we could plant trees along the Stranraer-Larne bridge? I wonder, can orange trees survive the northern UK climate?

 

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4 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

I see your point, but the problem is that the Tories were unable to deal with it internally. They knew that ultimately it would break up their party if they didn't hold a referendum, hence Cameron's gamble. They are primarily to blame for the whole fiasco, I think we probably agree with that. However, I remember thinking during the referendum campaign "What the heck are Labour doing?!" due to their lack of a strong cohesive message. And top of the pyramid was Corbyn. Even now, he's vacillating. He's no good as a party leader - he needs to be in the party apparatus somewhere, definitely, but not as leader, imo.

Fair do's Red. For "unable" I'd say "unwilling" and that was the point I was trying to make to Brighton Jambo, that Labour were required to do the referendum heavy lifting in order to save the Tory party. Otherwise I'd certainly agree with you on Corbyn's general ineffectiveness in the referendum campaign and, just as frustratingly, beyond.

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Just now, RobboM said:

Fair do's Red. For "unable" I'd say "unwilling" and that was the point I was trying to make to Brighton Jambo, that Labour were required to do the referendum heavy lifting in order to save the Tory party. Otherwise I'd certainly agree with you on Corbyn's general ineffectiveness in the referendum campaign and, just as frustratingly, beyond.

 

Cheers RM. I still think that "unable" is more apt, since I can't think of anything else that the Tories could have done to try and prevent the haemorrhaging of their supporters to the UKIP. Even the referendum wasn't guaranteed to stop that process of the split in the right-wing support, but Cameron had the idea that if Remain won then it would at least stem the flow.

 

I guess the main problem is that on the issue of Europe, we probably need a re-alignment of the parties, where each party (or new party) adopts a more solid approach to the issue. However, that would require the Tories and Labour to cede membership and representatives and both are worried about what that would entail regarding their overall power on the UK political scene. To be fair to the Tories, they appear to have bitten the bullet, decided to move to the right, and begun that process already with the election of Boris by the faithful. It's an ideal opportunity at the same time for those parties who have more solid positions - the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens, Brexit party, principally - to attract supporters away from the "big 2".

 

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30 minutes ago, The Real Maroonblood said:

“Even if it destroyed Scotland.”

Can’t believe you posted that.

Apologies, I couldn't think of another word which was as dramatic. But I'll stand by my thinking, you could tell me Scotland would be in the shit for a century, and I'd say so, where do I sign.

 

Edited by ri Alban
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The Real Maroonblood
1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

I couldn't think of another word which was as dramatic. But I'll stand by my thinking, you could tell me Scotland would be in the shit for a century, and I'd say so, where do I sign.

 

:thumbsup:

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2 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

I feel like i have pissed in my own cornflakes. :D

 

That's perfectly allowed. However, signing a piece of paper which would allow you to also piss in the cornflakes of 5.4 million other people for a century might be a bit too much. ;)

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38 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

A GE, with first past the post, waged on the single issue of Brexit? Not a great idea.

 

I can't believe your comment in bold. You *are* as bad as the no-deal Brexiteers, ri.

I'm not really. Just trying to make a point. No deal Brexiters have as much right as you and I to a deal. Something needs to be done and if the Tories gain a 50+odd seat majority, who can argue?

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3 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

That's perfectly allowed. However, signing a piece of paper which would allow you to also piss in the cornflakes of 5.4 million other people for a century might be a bit too much. ;)

Cider flavoured!

 

 

 

 

:mmtaxi:

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Just now, ri Alban said:

I'm not really. Just trying to make a point. No deal Brexiters have as much right as you and I to a deal. Something needs to be done and if the Tories gain a 50+odd seat majority, who can argue?

 

If we have a referendum and "No-deal Brexit" wins, who am I to stand in their way? Similarly if we have a general election and the Tories run on a clear "no deal" basis and win a majority of seats in Parliament.

 

It's the folk in the rest of the UK I would feel sorry for if that happpened. At least I would have the potential safety blanket of independence.

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1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

If we have a referendum and "No-deal Brexit" wins, who am I to stand in their way? Similarly if we have a general election and the Tories run on a clear "no deal" basis and win a majority of seats in Parliament.

 

It's the folk in the rest of the UK I would feel sorry for if that happpened. At least I would have the potential safety blanket of independence.

 

After EU exit, something has to be done about the likes of BJ and JRM. Their antics have been criminal.

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6 minutes ago, redjambo said:

 

If we have a referendum and "No-deal Brexit" wins, who am I to stand in their way? Similarly if we have a general election and the Tories run on a clear "no deal" basis and win a majority of seats in Parliament.

 

It's the folk in the rest of the UK I would feel sorry for if that happpened. At least I would have the potential safety blanket of independence.

John Curtis has the Tories gaining a 40+ majority at the next GE.

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1 minute ago, ri Alban said:

John Curtis has the Tories gaining a 40+ majority at the next GE.

 

It will all come down to tactical voting, whether on a personal level or with party agreements. Farage, for example, has already said that he won't oppose Tory candidates who have supported no-deal the whole way through (i.e. never voted at any point for any of May's deals). This is why using a general election as a means of asking a single question is a bad idea. Would the LIb Dems and Labour come to an arrangement in England? I'm not sure that an arrangement would be needed here in Scotland as I think the SNP *should* romp home, but it still might be useful in marginal seats with strong Tory contenders. Every seat would count and no chances could be taken.

 

 

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1 minute ago, redjambo said:

 

It will all come down to tactical voting, whether on a personal level or with party agreements. Farage, for example, has already said that he won't oppose Tory candidates who have supported no-deal the whole way through (i.e. never voted at any point for any of May's deals). This is why using a general election as a means of asking a single question is a bad idea. Would the LIb Dems and Labour come to an arrangement in England? I'm not sure that an arrangement would be needed here in Scotland as I think the SNP *should* romp home, but it still might be useful in marginal seats with strong Tory contenders. Every seat would count and no chances could be taken.

 

 

Lib/lab could be on, if it wasn't for Jo Swinson. She's a nightmare with a superiority complex.

 

Scottish guestimate.

51 SNP

4 Libdems

3 Tories

1 labour

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Just now, ri Alban said:

Lib/lab could be on, if it wasn't for Jo Swinson. She's a nightmare with a superiority complex.

 

Scottish guestimate.

51 SNP

4 Libdems

3 Tories

1 labour

 

I disagree about Jo Swinson. I don't think she's as good as Vince Cable was, but I still like her.

 

But anyway, 3 Tories is 3 Tories too many. The other parties need to make sure that the Tories leave any general election with precisely zero seats in Scotland.

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3 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

Lib/lab could be on, if it wasn't for Jo Swinson. She's a nightmare with a superiority complex.

 

I disagree - she’s a career politician who will be pragmatic to further her career.

 

She sold out her morales and never pushed back on any Tory policies during her time in that coalition. If she gets a shot at a decent cabinet position she’d take it.

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15 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

John Curtis has the Tories gaining a 40+ majority at the next GE.

good, would just hasten the inevitable Scottish Independence. If england wants to vote for a far right, racist leader of an increasingly right-wing tory party then stuff them

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On 09/09/2019 at 09:38, dobmisterdobster said:

I'm not bothered about tax avoidance in the slightest.

 

 

Yachts gonna have to be paid for somehow. Tax avoidance... in a galaxy far ,far away....  sorry in a tax haven far far away from UK shores lives the utter replies who have contributed a big fat feck all to the NHS, schools and public spending to help those who are really poor ..   In fact they have made a fortune out of it.   One word gangsters..

70687604_1461592297315402_5757914246000148480_n.jpg

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scott herbertson
26 minutes ago, ri Alban said:

John Curtis has the Tories gaining a 40+ majority at the next GE.

 

 

i think it would be even bigger if he wasn't dumb enough to refuse a deal with Farage. I'm astonished that he doesn't seem to have something in place. If i was Boris, which thank God I'm not, I would have been saying to Farage -"if they block No deal  I'm going for a People's Vote, election and if you stand aside it will be a 3 line whip pre-selection issue for all Tory candidates to sign up to that'. Also find some post election position for 'Sir Nigel' etc....

 

Without the Brexit party the polls indicate Tories would have 40% plus and that would gibve them a landslide win at any election - majority in 3 figures, especially as Labour has no coherent stance on Brexit

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, scott herbertson said:

 

 

i think it would be even bigger if he wasn't dumb enough to refuse a deal with Farage. I'm astonished that he doesn't seem to have something in place. If i was Boris, which thank God I'm not, I would have been saying to Farage -"if they block No deal  I'm going for a People's Vote, election and if you stand aside it will be a 3 line whip pre-selection issue for all Tory candidates to sign up to that'. Also find some post election position for 'Sir Nigel' etc....

 

Without the Brexit party the polls indicate Tories would have 40% plus and that would gibve them a landslide win at any election - majority in 3 figures, especially as Labour has no coherent stance on Brexit

 

 

 

 

What a pile of utter right wing desperation dog  shite.UK gov polls have put Labour ahead, recently and i know they can change  daily. SNP are going to romp home in Scotland. In fact old bojo Boris and dracionion victorian Mogg Rees are fueling the fire of the SNPS cause, very dangerous political game they are playing. They can ignore Scotland but Scotland under the SNP will  not be ignoring them.

Edited by maroonlegions
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16 minutes ago, maroonlegions said:

What a pile of utter right wing desperation dog  shite.UK gov polls have put Labour ahead, recently and i know they can change  daily. SNP are going to romp home in Scotland. In fact old bojo Boris and dracionion victorian Mogg Rees are fueling the fire of the SNPS cause, very dangerous political game they are playing. They can ignore Scotland but Scotland under the SNP will  not be ignoring them.

Yougov

Con 32%

Lab 23%

Libdem 19%

Brexit party 14%

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Montgomery Brewster
1 hour ago, redjambo said:

 

I disagree about Jo Swinson. I don't think she's as good as Vince Cable was, but I still like her.

 

But anyway, 3 Tories is 3 Tories too many. The other parties need to make sure that the Tories leave any general election with precisely zero seats in Scotland.

And 1 red Tory  too many as well.

 

 

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scott herbertson
35 minutes ago, maroonlegions said:

What a pile of utter right wing desperation dog  shite.UK gov polls have put Labour ahead, recently and i know they can change  daily. SNP are going to romp home in Scotland. In fact old bojo Boris and dracionion victorian Mogg Rees are fueling the fire of the SNPS cause, very dangerous political game they are playing. They can ignore Scotland but Scotland under the SNP will  not be ignoring them.

 

 

LOL - I'm very very far from the right. you've read my post completely wrong. I'm talking about the possible British election scenario. I believe (and hope) the SNP will sweep the lot in Scotland but I think the right will win most seats in England, and have a massive majority if a deal can be done between the tories and Farage. The likely result wil be independence, which will be ideal.


UK Polling report is an excellent site if you are interested in the polls

 

Here is a (lengthy but erudite) article from there - note that the predicition is based on 14.3% for Brexit Party - clearly if that reduces substantially and goes to the Tories they will have a UK landslide, with an SNP landslide in Scotland

 

 

Forecast #GE2019 – 12th September 2019
by Forecast UK – Peter
This is our latest forecast for a potential November 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a 50% confidence interval on the regional vote share for the major parties and the mid-point of the range of likely seat possibilites.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls from ComRes poll and YouGov have confirmed a clear trend in Conservative and Labour support that we have seen previously but not to a level of statistical significance.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Hung Parliament – Possible Labour / SNP / Lib Dem coalition”.

Our forecast has been updated with the introduction of new data indicating a clear movement of support from the Conservatives to Labour over the past week. This movement in support has evaporated any opportunity for the Conservatives to form a Government.

Although we continue to see evidence of a collapse in the Labour Party’s support across the country, this is now roughly matched by the fall in support for the Conservatives. Outside of London and Wales we see no evidence that the Conservatives will pick up any seats from Labour at all. Indeed, in some seats that Labour won from the Conservatives in 2017, Labour may even increase their majorities.

As a contrast we expect a resurgent Liberal Democrat party to win half of the seats where they were second to the Conservatives in 2017. In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives.

We see good evidence that support for the Brexit Party is slipping away across the country. This may be due to a news cycle that has emphasised parties that are sitting in the Commons. It may also be due to Brexit Party voters moving to the Conservatives.

Large amounts of polling in the past week has enabled us to firm up our current forecast.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.

UK Forecast
Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
Conservatives 30.2% (27.4% – 33.0%) 294 – 303 -23 to -14
Labour 25.0% (22.9% – 27.1%) 237 – 243 -25 to -19
SNP 3.4% 50 – 51 +15 to +16
Liberal Democrats 19.3% (18.4% – 20.2%) 34 – 40 +22 to +28
Brexit Party 14.3% (11.5% – 16.1%) 1 – 2 +1 to +2
Plaid Cymru 0.4% 2 – 4 -2 to 0
Green 4.0% (3.5% – 4.5%) 0 -2 -1 to +1
Independent 0-2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18
Most likely result – Hung Parliament
Potential Labour / SNP / Lib Dem coalition.”

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  • davemclaren changed the title to Brexit Deal agreed ( updated )

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